Just 30 days to go…
In addition to the latest Des Moines Register poll being released tonight at 7:00 central time (which will already be at least somewhat out of date, unfortunately, with Cain’s exit this afternoon), there are some other happenings in the Hawkeye State to keep an eye on as well.
The Sioux City Journal will announce online which Republican candidate they are endorsing at 6:00 pm tonight. This is one of the major endorsements the candidates seek in Iowa, perhaps behind only the Des Moines Register as far as newspaper endorsements in the state. In 2008, they endorsed Romney; however, back then Romney was the frontrunner in the state and had lavished a lot of time and money on Iowa. This time around, they’ll probably go with someone who has spent more time in Iowa – or at least a candidate who acts like winning Iowa is important to them.
Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich is playing the expectations game in the Hawkeye State, telling a group of folks there that he’ll probably finish “in the top two or three” in the first-in-the-nation caucuses. At this point, that’s reminiscent of Tim Pawlenty saying he needed to finish in the top six at Ames to continue his campaign.
We’ve talked before here at Race about how the Iowa caucuses take place all the way down on the precinct level, and how there are more than 1,700 precincts across the state. In addition to having as many precinct captains as humanly possible, well organized campaigns will also have county chairmen in each of the 99 Iowa counties. The Gingrich campaign admitted yesterday that since they’re getting such a late start in the state, they won’t even have all their county chairmen in place by the caucuses, let alone enough precinct captains.
Two pro-gun rights groups have also begun running robocalls against Newt Gingrich in Iowa, blasting him for supporting the Brady Bill and the Lautenberg Law, as well as for calling for a mandated thumb print scan for all gun owners. The robocalls are being paid for by the groups Iowa Gun Owners and the National Association for Gun Rights.
And finally, there are only three debates remaining before the Iowa caucuses and they are all taking place in Iowa. Next up on the calendar is an ABC News / Des Moines Register debate one week from today — and the stage will be pretty empty compared to what we’re used to. Obviously, Herman Cain won’t be there, but Jon Huntsman will most likely not be either, barring some stroke of miraculous luck in the next two days. The requirement for being invited to this debate is that a candidate be polling at 5% in either a Des Moines Register poll or a recognized national poll before December 5th. Huntsman has achieved neither milestone, and so has just two days to pray that a national poll comes out showing him at that 5% mark or he will be excluded.
Since Huntsman has also declined to take part in the Trump-moderated Iowa debate, the next time we see him on a debate stage will probably be January 7, 2012 in New Hampshire.
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:48 pm
The gun robo calls will have an effect on Gingrich here.
Third may be realistic
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:51 pm
Good info, Matt. Thanks.
How about Santorum and Bachman? Are they polling high enough to be invited to the debate?
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:52 pm
What does a precinct captain and a county chair do for candidates in the caucuses?
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:53 pm
So who wins then in your opinion?
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:56 pm
An e-mail from the National Association of Gun Rights (in addition to robocalls against the giant toad)
Newt Gingrich wants your fingerprints to own a gun
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Keith — yes, both Santorum and Bachmann have hit 5% in a DMR poll so they will be included.
Precinct captains and county chairs primarily provide one thing: get out the vote efforts. Before the vote, they also provide on-the-ground local information for the campaign: what voters are saying, what their concerns are, how to win them over, and other vital micro-targeting info,
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:01 pm
@1 – LOL
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:03 pm
If Newt thinks people are just going to show up for him, he won’t get past Iowa.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:04 pm
4. Well, I still think Bachmann and Romney have fairly strong levels of support, along with Gingrich.
I’ve thought Newt was going to win…but gun rights issues are big in this state and if those calls reach their intended audience it will hurt him.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:07 pm
Santorum may surge here in Iowa too. I can’t predict anything.
I could see Newt walking back the thumbprint idea…or clarifying it in some manner to try to make it a little more palatable …this will be interesting
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:08 pm
6 Thanks, Matt. And, those efforts have proven critical for winning? From your description it seems general groundswell support could easily trump the lack of captains and chairmen.
I’m just wondering how much of a disadvantage it really is to Newt to not have that organization? And, how much of an advantage it is to Mitt to have it.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:09 pm
10 – TOTAL HYPOCRISY!
What the hell is wrong with you?
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:10 pm
10. Heck, I could see Newt simply saying he never said it or that it was misinterpreted or that he repented of that when he converted to Baptist — maybe it was after that when he converted (again) to Catholicism.
And so far, people seem to let him get away with stuff like that.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:11 pm
Iowa is still about organization and GOTV. Newt has little to no organization and little money still. This is all about turnout and hopefully there is a nice blizzard on caucus day to shape that lol. Paul winning would be lovely or Bachmann or Mitt.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:11 pm
11 – Nope. Groundswell happens while sitting on your couch watching Fox News. Those people don’t end up going out to the Caucuses. You have to have people on the ground following up multiple times to make sure people know how it works, where to go, what time to show up, and why you should show up.
Organization is HUGE in caucuses. If you rely on groundswell alone, you will lose.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:13 pm
I would not be surprised if Paul won in Iowa. His people are enthusiastic and will show up. Contrary to the belief of RomNots, the hate of Romney is not really that strong. You have to have more than that to get people to go out and vote against him.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:13 pm
12,
I’ve said for a long time that conservatives have a special place in their hearts for Mitt Romney. Only he can’t be forgiving for changing his mind. A potential total flip flop here from Gingrich would be forgiven just as his other too numerous to list flips and flops appear to be. Teledude is just another example of this phenomenon.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:14 pm
11. Actually, you have to have someone hectoring Iowans on a cold January night to leave home and go spend a couple hours for politics…most try to avoid it if at all possible.
Sure your rabidly committed supporters will turn out, but it’s a lot different than just stopping in and voting, so you need an organization to identify your supporters and drive them to the caucuses if necessary.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:15 pm
Holy cow I forgot about Paul. He could win it.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:16 pm
17 – Not only that, teledude is actually advocating that he flip flop. Total insanity! You can’t justify your Mitt-hate by calling him a flip flopper and then do that.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:17 pm
If Paul looks like he might win, and Romney is struggling, watch for Romney to push people Paul’s way.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:19 pm
What? I’m in a recognized demographic now?
http://www.borowitzreport.com/2011/11/29/as-cain-drops-out-proadultery-voters-shift-to-gingrich/
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:20 pm
20. Jax, I didn’t advocate it. I just speculated on what he might do. He might double down and call for DNA testing for all firearms owners, I don’t know.
try to pay attention.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:21 pm
20. Jax, that’s not the impression I got from Tele’s comments on it.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:21 pm
One of my Cain sites just did a poll on who they will NOW support with Herman out..
Michele Bachmann 12.12%
Rick Santorum 10.61%
Newt Gingrich 37.88%
Ron Paul 12.12%
Write-In 3.03%
I’m Not Voting 1.52%
Mitt Romney 3.03%
Other: 19.7%
Note: Perry got a chunk of the “Other”.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:24 pm
as-cain-drops-out-proadultery-voters-shift-to-gingrich
===
Romney is so now DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:24 pm
Who are those gun groups supporting? Perry?
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:26 pm
And Jax…this info on Newt and gun rights gives me heartburn.
If he were to flip on this issue I would be very glad.
Kinda like we’d like to see Romney admit the mistake of Romneycare.
get it?
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:27 pm
23 – You didn’t seem to disapprove of it
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:27 pm
24 – Seriously? What impression did you get then?
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:28 pm
mcon Says:
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:13 pm
“I’ve said for a long time that conservatives have a special place in their hearts for Mitt Romney. Only he can’t be forgiving for changing his mind”
===
Ahhh… quit whining, kid.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:28 pm
28 – You are so full of crap
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:32 pm
Jax
I’m just here to help
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:37 pm
Iowans on caucus night..
http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a319/fladj11/Nov%2011/Color-GOP-voters-2012.jpg
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:40 pm
from Twitter
newtgingrich Newt Gingrich
Enjoyed discussing job creation and returning to constitutional, limited govt at townhall of 800 in Staten Island today.
Crowds continue to be HUGE!
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:41 pm
34. those guys in that are obviously caricatures… but I’ve seen those two women at Walmart.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:42 pm
Mitt’s comment today about Cain and Conservatives..
http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a319/fladj11/Nov%2011/toon112111.jpg
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:46 pm
35.
Yep. And Newt took the opportunity to talk about how wonderfully bi-partisan Bill Clinton was, doing the little things to build friendships across the aisle like having picnics for families and offering rides in Air Force One. Why he would want to reference rides on Air Force One as a sign of bi-partisanship is beyond me. He seems to enjoy doing risky things just to see if he can get away with it.
I think its a bit late for Newt to try and downplay expectations. With his reference to how well he is doing in the polls and declaring he will be the nominee anything less than a top 2 or very close 3 is going to hurt.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:48 pm
35 – What is he doing in Staten Island? Doesn’t sound like someone serious about winning.
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:57 pm
CONCORD — Former New Hampshire U.S. Sen. Bob Smith is endorsing Newt Gingrich for President.
Smith said in his endorsement, “It is not enough to simply defeat President Obama. We must replace him with an inspirational, experienced, conservative leader, with the guts to challenge and change the establishment. Newt Gingrich is that leader.”
-NHL
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:57 pm
39. I agree…it’s crazy isn’t it?
yet Newt keeps rising and Romney is at 17% and falling.
I wonder why that is?
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:58 pm
Senator Smith from NH is a great American!
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Newt is the new Romney killer! Let’s all hope he gets it done, folks!
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:00 pm
From Twitter:
newtgingrich Newt Gingrich
Pres Obama should fire his ambassador to Brussels for being so wrong about anti-semitism: bitly.com/scCgsj
Look for Romney to mention this next February!
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:01 pm
I don’t understand what’s wrong with giving a thumb scan. You have to get fingerprinted for some jobs. Also, is this thumb scan an image, or is it just data regarding locations of different features of your thumb. I’d feel much better about the latter.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:05 pm
anyone have any insight onto who is likely to get that newspaper endorsement? im thinking bachmann but just a hunch.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:06 pm
As Johnny Cash sang, “I put on my cleanest, dirty shirt.”
That, may be Newt.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:09 pm
43. I was one of those RomNot people, as in I wanted someone other than Romney. But to be honest, I despise Newt and Santorum, ANYONE but those two and I’ll be satisfied. If it comes down to Newt or Romney, call me a Romney supporter.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:11 pm
Not my choice. It’s the process of elimination.
My choice is Huck. The establishment eliminated him.
Second choice was Bachmann/Perry/Palin. The establishment eliminated them. (And Perry blew himself up)
Third choice was Cain. The establishment eliminated him.
Beginning to see a pattern here.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:12 pm
45 – Come on Aspire. Gun ownership is protected by the constitution. By requiring fees, registration, waiting periods, no concealed weapons permits, thumb scans, etc. They prevent honest, law-abiding citizens from being able to own a gun; too many hoops. However, criminals just pick them up on the street.
As soon as states started throwing out the no concealed weapons permits laws, crime dropped significantly in every state that it passed.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:13 pm
My choice is still in the race.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:15 pm
49.
>>Beginning to see a pattern here.
I see a pattern too. Bet its not the one you see.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:15 pm
Poll predictions:
Gingrich 26%
Romney 20%
Paul 13%
Cain (out of race) 11%
Bachmann 9%
Perry 7%
Santorum 5%
Huntsman 5%
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:17 pm
49 – the establishment….hilarious. Huck doesn’t even enter the race, instead keeps his gig at Fox. Bachmann hurts herself with over the top language and the inability to manage her staff, Perry – seriously??? How about he just blew himself up, no establishment boogeyman there. Palin – never entered, destroyed herself.
Cain – the establishment, seriously? I can tell you right now that MRS. CAIN is giving that guy the worst tongue-lashing you’ve ever heard. Sticking together? Yeah, like Bill and Hillary.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:38 pm
@27 At least one of the gun groups has come out in favor of Ron Paul. Not sure about the other.
Those free robocalls on such a motivating issue for gun owners are going to make a difference. How much remains to be seen.
I’d expect to see a percent or two from it come caucus night though, if they’re well targetted.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:39 pm
Good evening gentlemen…and ladies.
Just got home from a High School basketball game and saw my Buffalo Bison defeat those evil Maple Grove Crimson 57-53. Should be a great year for Bison Boys Basketball.
So we will have 3 Iowa polls popping up in the next 3 days. DMR,NBC and PPP. The PPP Iowa poll will not have Cain as a part of the polling.
Should be interesting to see if Santorum can get to 7-8% in any of these polls, and to see if Mitt is in the 22-23% range, or is he stuck at 17-19%. Newt will be somewhere in the 30′s in all three of them.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:40 pm
53,
With Cain out, that 11% is gonna splinter and go to Newt, Bachmann and Santorum. A CNN repoter at the Cain speech today claimed that he talked alot of the people there and he said that alot of Cain supporters told him they will jump to Bachmann. Only time will tell to whom Cain’s supporters go to.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:41 pm
56 – What are you doing to help Newt mobilize in Iowa Smack? There is no way he wins without people on the ground.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:44 pm
54,
While I don’t buy Craig’s establisment theory, I don’t think the Cains are anything like the Clintons. It is possible that Mrs. Cain beleives her husband and they plan to stick together. They’ve been together for 43 years. It’s hard to see them not working out any problems they might have.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:44 pm
50.Jaaron, I’m not so sure.
Yes, we NEED the right to own guns. But, we also need to do our best to keep guns out of the hands of criminals (impossible, but we have to try). Registration helps with that.
Also, if a gun IS used in a crime, I can see the benefit to having registrations. And, MAYBE a thumb print.
The fees don’t take away the rights. They defer the costs of the registration.
The waiting period is maybe a good idea, too, though I haven’t heard the arguments for it. Maybe to keep an angry person from buying a gone and shooting someone before they have a chance to cool down.
I, too, have read about crime going down where concealed guns are allowed. Why risk holding someone up if there’s a chance they can shoot you?
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:45 pm
Whats the over/under on the number of times Newt says “profoundly” tonight? Or declares something as “the worst piece of legislation in the history of the US”?
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:45 pm
54. I thought it was NEWT who likes the tongue lashings. In the car!
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:46 pm
I get such a kick out of seeing one or two people here get ecstatic over…………….newt.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:47 pm
58,
I think Smack just promotes Newt on this site.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:47 pm
60 – Gun laws aren’t going to keep guns out of the hands of criminals. They are criminals because they don’t care about the law.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:47 pm
He’s so puffy! Love that $4 haircut he got 14 years ago – it’s grown out nicely. Newt and Callista for president! Tiffany lamps in the big house!
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:48 pm
65. I think I mentioned that in my comment, Jax.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:48 pm
No seriously, if Newt pulls it off with no effort, money, or organization, he deserves it.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:48 pm
64 – I think you might be right. If he was really committed he would be going to Iowa to help his favorite candidate who is desperately in need of help on the ground.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:48 pm
I could suffer through a year or two with Newt the big spender in the White House. Until the economy totally crumbles.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:49 pm
Jax,
Not going to lift a finger. I was motivated by TPAW…and before him Jack Kemp.
I will support Newt in MN and will vote for him, but I did my part and lost with TPAW.
Newt will need somewhat of a Ground Game, of course. If Mitt or Paul can get within 4-5 pts of him come Cacucus Night it might make a difference. Because of the history of Iowa, 2nd time guys don’t do as well as they think they are going to. Mitt will stop at 22-23%..and that won’t be enough to win.
Will see.
But no, I donated my time already and lost out big time.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:49 pm
Iowa can be a wild card. Let’s see if they’ve felt the Obama depression any there, or if they’re still in good enough spirits to mess around with America’s future.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:50 pm
67 – I must have missed that
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:52 pm
Because I’ve had enough and no doughboy is going to solve this problem.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:53 pm
I went to Iowa 8 times for TPAW..and was rejected by the voters of Iowa.
I never blamed the Iowa voters once…..but don’t blame me as well for not wanting to go back for awhile.
I like Urbandale…but I don’t like it that much.
My buddy in Iowa, who was working with me in the TPAW camp, has been working hard for Santorum. He is not convince the needle will move for Rick….kind of depressed about it.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:53 pm
70 – The problem is that the damage that will be caused will last far longer than a year or two.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:55 pm
I think Newt is especially vulnerable in Iowa. There is plenty of material for his opponents to go after him on. Iowans don’t make up their minds until the last minute, as we saw in 2008.
This is a really weird election. It still feels like no one is paying attention.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:57 pm
Smack…it’s timing. I’m impressed by your dedication. It’ll work out.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:57 pm
69,
It depends on where Smack lives and what his plans are during the holidays with his family or jobs, etc. For example, I support Romney and Bachmann. I’d love to see Bachmann win Iowa and Romney win New Hampshire and go to those states and rally and support them there. But, since I live in central New Jersey, and am too preoccupied with other things, I cant’ make the trek there. Maybe if Bachmann or Romney held a rally in good ole Jersey, or New York or Pennsylvania, I could make the trip, but, not all the way to Iowa or New Hampshire.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:58 pm
Perry has spent over a million dollars on ads here in Iowa.
they are not that great though.
Will have to see what kind of ROI he gets …
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:58 pm
Go Mitt. Even if Iowa gets all weird, you can still take this thing. Help the country out. Go baby.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:59 pm
Perry’s Faith ad was…..interesting. He’s kind of endearing one moment, and tipsy crazy the next. Clearly, he considers himself one big cheese Christian type.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:59 pm
71 Smack,
I’m still surprised that you chose to support Newt and not Mitt in this race. Especially since your original choice of T-Paw endorsed Mitt.
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:59 pm
79 – One difference is that Mitt already has his team ready to go. Newt is desperately behind and needs help. Smack lives in the neighboring state too.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:00 pm
A little big of bigotry can sneak into the best of us. It can blind you to basic facts.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:00 pm
Another difference is that Mitt gets a regular haircut. Just saying.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:01 pm
Sioux City Journal endorses Romney. Nice.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:02 pm
Fuzzybird,
You better not be talking about me….
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:02 pm
77,
While I think Newt and Mitt will be in the top five in Iowa, I’m going on a limb here and saying that Iowa will be won by either Bachmann, Paul, or Santorum.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:05 pm
87 sweet
88 if the shoe fits but I was talking about Erick Erickson
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:05 pm
Love Bachmann, hope she takes Iowa, she deserves it.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:05 pm
86. and Botox!
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:06 pm
Bachmann is smart and beautiful, Newt thinks he is smart and beautiful.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:07 pm
89,
Not a completely outrageous prediction, except for Santorum. That would be one heck of a comeback. But this race is so crazy that I can make a plausible case for Ron Paul winning IA!
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:07 pm
89 – Totally possible, and I would be 100% OK with that as a Romney supporter. Newt has to win Iowa or he is in trouble.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:08 pm
91,
As Cain would say, Romney is my Plan A, Bachmann is my Plan B. I hope she wins Iowa and South Carolina and Mitt takes New Hampshire, Florida, and Nevada.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Sioux City Journal endorsement goes to Romney
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:08 pm
I’ve sold Gingrich to win Iowa at 62%.
I don’t think he will survive December.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:08 pm
It still feels like Americans in general are treating this election as if it were the summer before the primaries. It doesn’t feel like many people are paying attention. Maybe that is just a function of where I am right now, but it is odd.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Sioux City Journal endorses Mitt Romney!! This is a big development in IA
http://siouxcityjournal.com/news/opinion/editorial/our-opinion-mitt-romney-stands-out-as-best-choice/article_292d7d02-2bf8-524e-a32d-50b9c473ef4a.html
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:09 pm
What Obama’s hope and change have wrought:
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2011/12/black-friday-best-seller-guns/
“Numbers from the Federal Bureau of Investigation show an all-time one-day high for background check requests from gun buyers last Friday. There were 129,166 requests to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS)–a third more than the previous record of 97,848 on Black Friday 2008″
- – - –
and why gun rights issues are big
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:11 pm
Sioux City Journal Endorses Romney!!!! This is huge!!! Even bigger than the Union Leader in New Hampshire. Go Mitt!!
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:12 pm
Jax,
If you were paying attention to the huge crowds Newt has been receiving as of late, you would not feel that way. The support is now firming up for all candidates…of course the whole thing is still in flux, but Newt’s support is much more firmer now than it was two weeks ago.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:14 pm
68.Fuzzybird Says:
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:48 pm
No seriously, if Newt pulls it off with no effort, money, or organization, he deserves it.
===
As did Huck when he clobbered Week Willard by 9/
Hey, who is BVP endorsing? (hehehe..I know
)
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:15 pm
Very nice surprise. I’m sure that Smack, Craig for Losers and Casuist will immediately downplay it, as usual (as soon as they clear their message buffers of the “Ain’t it great that Newt got the Sioux City Journal” post).
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:15 pm
102 – That is true. The Union Leader is not going to get Newt a win in New Hampshire. In a much more volatile state, this endorsement is more important. The DMR endorsement will be even better though.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:15 pm
PPP Just tweeted:
“Initial impressions from Iowa: Newt winning, but by single digits. Expected bigger margin. Paul/Romney duking it out for 2nd”
HHHuuuuuummm…..
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:15 pm
103 – I’m not impressed. 800 people aren’t going to win Iowa for him.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:15 pm
94,
I just added him there cause Santorum has been working Iowa hard. But, he’s the longest shot of my three wild card picks. Paul has his fanatical base and Bachmann is loved in Iowa. It could go to either one of them. In fact, I think Bachmann, Paul, Newt and Mitt will be the Iowa final four, with Bachmann taking Cain’s slot(and probably most of his supporters).
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:16 pm
*Weak…
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:16 pm
104 – Whoever is willing to pay him the most. And Huck absolutely had organization on the ground.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:17 pm
109 – Bachmann has come back in several Iowa polls.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:17 pm
PPP just tweeted:
“Other thing that grabs my attention in IA is Perry appears to be in double digits, much better than he’s been doing elsewhere”
hhuuummmm..again
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:19 pm
113.
Where are all the people who said Romney was crazy to keep an eye on Perry?
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:20 pm
113. that’s what a million dollar media buy can do
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:21 pm
So let’s see….Iowa Poll looking something like this?
Gingrich 28%
Romney 20%
Paul 19%
Bachmann 12%
Perry 11%
Santorum 5%
Right?
hhummmmm….
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:21 pm
113 – How many times have I told you not to listen to PPP?
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:22 pm
116 – I’m guessing closer than that for the DMR. That will probably be right for PPP.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:22 pm
Iowa
1. Newt (by 7-9 points)
)
2. Paul
3. Romney
4. Bachmann/Perry
6. Santorum (Organization is not everything
South Carolina
1. Newt (by 15)
2. Doesn’t matter-it’s OVER
Florida
1. Newt (by 20)
——————-
IA + SC = FL and the nom
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:22 pm
I think I need a drink.
Nope…I know I need a drink.
Boomer,
good point.
Teledude,
yep.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:23 pm
Fmr MO Senator, Episcopal Priest, John Danforth Endorses Romney, Berates Religious Bigotry
http://mittromneycentral.com/2011/12/03/fmr-mo-senator-episcopal-priest-john-danforth-endorses-romney-berates-religious-bigotry/
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:24 pm
Jax,
Everybody is giving PPP high marks again in this cycle. Sorry man, can’t listen to you on this one.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:26 pm
Another endorsement that fails to highlight a single conservative achievement by Romney.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:28 pm
Jax,
With all due respect, my son…all of your posts every day consist of nothing BUT chronic whining.
And sound like:
Waahhhh… Waahhhh Waahhh… MOMMY… Waaahhh…
No offense.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:28 pm
123 – agreed, it’s not as impressive as “helping defeat communism.”
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:29 pm
124 – your existence is offensive.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:30 pm
Smack1968 Says:
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:21 pm
So let’s see….Iowa Poll looking something like this?
Gingrich 28%
Romney 20%
Paul 19%
Bachmann 12%
Perry 11%
Santorum 5%
===
Pretty cool, Smacks
All trying to be the Anti-Newt.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:37 pm
Good interview with Mitt on Fox & Friends. Softball, but nice.
http://mittromneycentral.com/2011/12/02/video-fox-friends-interview-romney-baier-newt-polls-obama-christie-george-barbara-bush/#comment-21981
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:37 pm
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/03/sioux-city-journal-endorses-mitt-romney-for-president/
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:39 pm
IF Gingrich implodes then who wins Iowa? Just wondering.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:41 pm
130,
Romney or Bachmann with Paul having an outside shot. Rick Perry doesn’t have enough money in the bank to undo the damage he’s done to himself
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:43 pm
Who’s that a dig at?
Nice.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:44 pm
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071202/NEWS09/312020005/-1/iowapoll07
November 28, 2007
DMR POLL
Huckabee 29%
Romney 24%
Thompson 9%
McCain 7%
Final Results
Huckabee 34.4%
Romney 25.2%
Thompson 13.4%
McCain 13.0%
This is just a reminder of how well the DMR poll did last cycle a month out from the voting in Iowa in 2007/8.
DMR kicked ass.
Tonight’s results of their latest poll is going to tell us a lot of what is going to happen come Caucus Night.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:44 pm
Corzine stole billions
supported by Obama :
http://podcast.streetiq.com/streetiq/?ChannelID=3098&GUID=20089431&Page=MediaViewer
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:44 pm
131 I kind of think Bachmann, but it’s a guess.
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:45 pm
“The rule of law no longer exist in Obama Nation.”
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:51 pm
122 – Based on what?
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:53 pm
123 – You didn’t even read it, did you.
December 3rd, 2011 at 7:25 pm
The new DMR poll is out. Gingrich leads it at 25%, followed Paul at 18% and Romney at 16%
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/03/iowa-poll-gingrich-leading-the-pack/
December 3rd, 2011 at 7:30 pm
139 – Big MOE … I’m surprised
December 3rd, 2011 at 7:39 pm
They only polled 400 caucus goers
December 3rd, 2011 at 10:44 pm
Thanks Matt Coulter for this article. Very insightful.
December 3rd, 2011 at 11:41 pm
I could be wrong, but like the other not-Mitts when they made their debuts, these will be Newt’s highest numbers. They can only fall as more and more stuff comes out about him–just like the others. The bloom will be off the rose, just like the others; by Jan. will people then be as eager to go out into the snow to cast a vote for him?
And how does this work in IO? If you think the guy you want is very much ahead, do you stay home, feeling confident you don’t have to make an effort?
January 29th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
complete hair loss. if you are diagnosed…
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