PPP (D) Montana 2012 Republican Primary Poll
- Newt Gingrich 37% [11%]
- Ron Paul 12% [10%]
- Mitt Romney 11% [22%]
- Michele Bachmann 10% [25%]
- Herman Cain 10% [8%]
- Rick Perry 5%
- Jon Huntsman 3% [4%]
- Rick Santorum 1%
- Gary Johnson 1%
- Someone else/Not sure 10% [10%]
Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?
- Strongly committed to that candidate 33%
- Might end up supporting someone else 67%
Second Choice
- Newt Gingrich 18%
- Herman Cain 15%
- Mitt Romney 15%
- Michele Bachmann 8%
- Rick Perry 6%
- Ron Paul 4%
- Jon Huntsman 3%
- Rick Santorum 2%
- Gary Johnson 0%
- Someone else/Not sure 27%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Newt Gingrich 65% / 23% {+42%}
- Herman Cain 46% [44%] / 33% [15%] {+13%}
- Mitt Romney 44% [47%] (58%) / 39% [36%] (24%) {+5%}
- Ron Paul 37% / 44% {-7%}
- Rick Perry 33% / 45% {-12%}
Survey of 700 Montana Republican primary voters was conducted November 28-30, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Political ideology: 40% [39%] Somewhat conservative; 39% [39%] Very conservative; 15% [15%] Moderate; 3% [3%] Somewhat liberal; 3% [3%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
November 30th, 2011 at 4:04 pm
Breathe in the crazy.
MMMMMmmmmyeaaaahhh…
November 30th, 2011 at 4:05 pm
Romney FAV/UNFAV among GOP voters:
44/39
Not only does this show a surge for Newt, but more importantly a complete rejection of Mitt Romney in Big Sky Country.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:10 pm
SURGERS!!
•Newt Gingrich 37% [11%]
•Ron Paul 12% [10%]
•Herman Cain 10% [8%]
November 30th, 2011 at 4:12 pm
Montana GOP voters
Support strongly committed to Newt Gingrich
66%
Support strongly committed to Mitt Romney
41%
Why so wobbly ROMBOTS?
November 30th, 2011 at 4:22 pm
Second Choice
•Herman Cain 15% ..Woo-Hoo!
•Mitt Romney 15%
November 30th, 2011 at 4:23 pm
Isn’t mittens supposed to pwn in these rocky mountain states?
November 30th, 2011 at 4:24 pm
After holding remarkably steady numbers for 3 years- through wind and rain and snow- could Romney be collapsing? Now? A month before his greatest triumph???
November 30th, 2011 at 4:25 pm
•Mitt Romney 11% [22%]
..TIMBER!!
November 30th, 2011 at 4:26 pm
Wow, yes Romney is supposed to be strong in these states.
I think Romney’s current problem is that he has been coasting, instead of proactively campaigning in an attempt to win the hearts and minds of Republican primary voters.
(Among other problems.)
November 30th, 2011 at 4:27 pm
Are we, as a party, seriously considering Newt Gingrich? Are we this dumb? Are we really going to nominate the guy who was the southern regional director for Nelson Rockefeller?
Congressmen do not win presidential elections. Let alone a warmed over, scandal ridden, speaker of the house. Early signs show Obama will have nearly $1,000,000,000 to campaign with and he’s going to spend all that money on attacking the republican. Do you truly believe Newt fricken Gingrich is going to be able to survive that?
How many times are you people going to elect the worst candidate on the stage? This just goes to show;
“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice… well, I am Republican.”
Anybody (other than Cain) would be better than Newton Leroy Gingrich. If this party nominates another moron like this, I’m done. I’m leaving the party.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:28 pm
This is unexpected. I’m not sure what to say.
I guess Newt was able to reclaim his base from the 1990′s. White, middle aged men…they remember.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:28 pm
holy crap, its like i knew everyone was looking for somsone besides romney, but i never imagined it could be newt, and so quickly. i mean, the guy sucks.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:29 pm
10 – I know the liberal media keeps saying that ($), but since Obama has lost the investment class and so may of his supporters are unemployed, I doubt he’ll each half that number.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:30 pm
*reach
November 30th, 2011 at 4:31 pm
10.
Easily beats Obama-lite as our nominee loud and clear per poll after poll…with only a few weeks to go in the holiday season.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:32 pm
This is amazing. Newt is slaughtering the polls.
Will the party coalesce?
Will those who endorsed mitt start to fall away? (will the voters trump the endorsements?)
Will we hear Anne say that this is the first time she was not proud of her country?
November 30th, 2011 at 4:33 pm
Metro, I would have agreed but then I saw Mitt sit down with Bier. Wow was that ever a mistake!!
November 30th, 2011 at 4:33 pm
Pretty good point. Lotsa $$$ made in the Newt years by young, middle, and old!
November 30th, 2011 at 4:35 pm
Huckabee is hanging himself after seeing these numbers the past week.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:36 pm
Although a Newt/Huck ticket would work for America today.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:38 pm
Cr, I am not sure Huckabee would be polling at 37%. Tough estimation to make. I think he’d be doing well, but Newt seems to be winning in both the north and the south. He seems to be appealing to both side of the Mason-Dixon line, which is unusual in GOP politics.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:43 pm
statist,
Huck polled extremely well in the South and Midwest. He was weaker on the coasts and in the Mountain West.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
So Matt, are you excited now by the prospect of Newt getting the nomination?
November 30th, 2011 at 4:47 pm
#21 – It’s not surprising because nearly every other candidate has been given a chance and found wanting. When you think about it, Gingrich was the obvious choice to be Romney’s challenger after Perry flamed out. He has the resume, the name ID, and the ability to go toe to toe in the debates.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:48 pm
I think it’s time for Max Twain to move Newt’s picture to the center and Mitt’s off to the side of the banner.
Heck, he could just flip flop them!
November 30th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
LOL
November 30th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
10. Yeah, lets see if those numbers hold when Obama is actively running attack adds against Newt. Here’s the weather report for 2012: It’s going to rain blood.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:52 pm
13. not 10.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:52 pm
If Romney holds the fort in NH none this will matter.
If Romney holds the fort in NH and prevents Newt from winning Iowa then Newt will implode again.
Expectations now are working against Newt. He might be the new Giuliani.
His numbers are too high too early.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:56 pm
29. it seems more like Romney’s numbers are too low too late
We’ve only got a month before Iowa, and the Holidays are in there too. Not much is going to change now.
Too bad Florida jumped everything ahead (was that done by Romney’s minions? if so, another blunder)
November 30th, 2011 at 4:57 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWKTOCP45zY&feature=youtu.be
Ron Paul went nuclear on Newt Gingrich and Drudge has posted it on his page. This one is going to sting a little.
November 30th, 2011 at 4:58 pm
Craig, MWS, none of these later state poll numbers matter even one iota if Newt doesn’t win Iowa. He will lose all his momentum. He won’t win NH if he doesn’t win Iowa, and think Iowa will be a Romney/Bachmann contest. Newt’s bout ta fit his arse handed to him in Iowa in the coming days before the caucus, count in it. He won’t win based off of his serial adultery (kind of insane a Palin supported would fall for this guy) and 84 ethics violations in 3 years, while Ron Paul has had ZERO in 30 years!
November 30th, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Only a month to go and Gingrich is peaking at the right time. Frankly, this is starting to look over already. Mitt has to do everything to hold NH.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:00 pm
29. I wish that were true, but the grim reality here is that this is a stampede without a stupid guy on the receiving end.
Really, once Newt got away with saying a couple of weeks ago that he was a historian for Freddie Mac, the sad and ugly truth for the GOP became obvious: it’s going to be the guy who can get away with looking you straight in the eye and say $40 million dollars later, “I’m not a lobbyist.”, and get away with it. If he can get away with that, he can certainly take the nomination from the crowd that’s willing to give him such a pass. That is diamond studded teflon.
To me it’s sad, but it is comical.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:02 pm
30.
Three excellent points.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:06 pm
If the filing deadline were next week…..you could almost bet Huck would jump in. Too bad.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:06 pm
test
November 30th, 2011 at 5:07 pm
It’s going to be fun to watch the next anti-Romney candidate implode in less than 1 month!
November 30th, 2011 at 5:09 pm
31. There are days were I absolutely love Ron Paul.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:09 pm
Gingrich from today:
“I helped Ronald Reagan and Jack Kemp develop supply side economics. I helped lead the effort to defeat communism in the Congress.”
Egomania just doesn’t do this clown justice.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:13 pm
39,
Why not every day? I love Ron Paul. And if Gingrich does implode….Ron Paul is the only one with the money and organization to beat romney in time. It’s sad. I wouldn’t mind a romney presidency. But i now see that romney would have a very hard time winning. All of our candidates would. We’re just totally screwed unless we get a brokered convention and someone comes out of the darkness.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:14 pm
40. You prefer “I’m not trying to go back to Reagan/Bush!”
“I was an independent during Reagan/Bush!”
Yeah…that’s much better.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:15 pm
“it seems more like Romney’s numbers are too low too late”
Romney is still ahead in NH. And where NH goes, SC and FL tend to follow.
Gingrich’s only experience running for office is in his old congressional district. He is understaffed, underfunded and probably way over his head in a national campaign.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:16 pm
Also, even if Newt wins Iowa, which he won’t, there’s still plenty of time for him to implode from all the dirty stuff on him. I don’t see how the man survives with all the baggage he’s carrying!
November 30th, 2011 at 5:17 pm
Newt talks a good talk and is well spoken, firsts among the non-Romney candidates, but anyone thinking he’ll be any more to the right of the average Republican establishment guy is going to be really disappointed, because that’s what he is.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:18 pm
Hmmmm.
George W Bush lost New Hampshire by 18 points to McCain in 2000.
He then went on to win South Carolina by 11 points.
So your assertion isn’t too solid.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:20 pm
Now you’re just being silly.
Gingrich wasn’t some lowly congressman. He was the SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE. He was THIRD IN LINE FROM THE PRESIDENCY. And not only that, he was the whipping boy for the national Democratic Party for half a decade.
I get that you’re upset. I’d be upset at the latest developments too if I were a Rombot, but your assertions are borderline ridiculous.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:24 pm
“the grim reality here is that this is a stampede”
Stampedes never last long.
And the tv ad war hasn’t even started.
McCain had great ads 4 years ago. Gingrich doesn’t even have a staff to create ads.
If I had to buy stock on intrade right now I would buy Perry.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:24 pm
44. The way he survives is…it is all known and we don’t care.
The positives outweigh the negatives.
I guess you guys don’t believe me because I have to keep repeating this…but that’s the fact.
Gingrich has balanced the federal budget. Reformed Welfare. Cut spending and taxes. Banned partial birth abortions. – he has also made some blunders.
None of the candidates are optimum, but at least he has a record of conservative accomplishments, he led the fight against the left courageously and has the scars to prove it.
That’s it.
Continually dwelling on the supposed negatives is just pissing us off…it’s not going to endear any of us to Romney.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:27 pm
“And the tv ad war hasn’t even started.”
Oh, but it has. And the DNC was rude enough to strike Romney in his flip flops.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=K9njHHyRI7g
November 30th, 2011 at 5:33 pm
and now …California?
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/romney-gingrich-california-polls/2011/11/30/id/419542
“Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is closing in on Mitt Romney in the California version of the Republican presidential sweepstakes. The former Massachusetts governor holds just a 3-point lead over Gingrich, a new Field Poll shows.
Romney is the favorite for 26 percent of California Republicans, compared with 23 percent for Gingrich. Gingrich, who had been well back in the pack in previous California polls, raced into second place in the Nov. 15-27 survey.
And he’s well ahead of former businessman Herman Cain at 9 percent, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, at 5 percent; Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 3 percent; Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, 3 percent; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, 2 percent; and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, 1 percent.”
November 30th, 2011 at 5:35 pm
Gingrich balanced the federal budget in the middle of a credit bubble. And the fact that Clinton cut the defense budget and raised taxes beyond just the revenue increases occurring in a credit-bubble economy were the real reasons.
Gingrich meanwhile was lobbying for the federal mortgage bubble entities, surely to keep Republicans supporting this scam. He loved the bailout of the financial sector, which transferred the losses from the mortgage bubble he lobbied so well for, to us.
This man has been such an integral part of the debt-based prosperity in the last decades, and benefited so beautifully from it. Why should we trust him to do anything more than keep digging America’s own tomb as he’s done so well in the past decade?
November 30th, 2011 at 5:37 pm
41. I would happily vote for Paul over Newton. And I would like nothing more than for this to be a Romney and Paul race.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:38 pm
46.
McCain was ahead in SC and Bush had to dump millions there to reverse it. He also spread false rumors that McCain fathered a Nepalese child. Look it up. This is a good example of how a professional campaign machine is operated.
November 30th, 2011 at 5:42 pm
54 – I’m well aware. You think a similar smear campaign can’t be orchestrated against Romney?
Especially since already South Carolina voters have been cool to him?
November 30th, 2011 at 6:11 pm
I’m gonna donate to and vote for Ron Paul, I would rather have a honest crazy president than a self serving flip flopper like Newt.
November 30th, 2011 at 6:14 pm
As noted by a couple commenters above, Montana should be Romney territory. In the 2008 caucuses, he got 38%.
Of course, caucuses are tough to poll and results aren’t strictly comparable. Still, 38% to 11% is a serious drop-off.
November 30th, 2011 at 6:19 pm
If you all want to get your jollies off a PPP poll go ahead.
December 7th, 2011 at 1:15 pm
Hmmmmmm…..as the nominee:
BEST PREPARED for the job of President of the United States?
•Newt Gingrich 43% ..Solutions!
•Mitt Romney 20%
TRUST most to handle an international crisis?
•Newt Gingrich 44% ..Brains!
•Mitt Romney 16%
MOST QUALIFIED to be Commander-in-Chief?
•Newt Gingrich 40% ..Competence!
•Mitt Romney 19%
TRUST MOST to handle the federal budget deficit?
•Newt Gingrich 25% ..Frugal!
•Mitt Romney 17%
TRUST MOST to deal with health care?
•Newt Gingrich 24% ..Bye-bye RomneyCare!/ObamaCare!
•Mitt Romney 15%