InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research (R) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
- Newt Gingrich 28.1% {14.5%} [11.7%] (12.1%)
- Ron Paul 13.3% {11.4%} [8.7%] (9.6%)
- Mitt Romney 11.5% {18.7%} [14.9%] (18.1%)
- Michele Bachmann 10.1% {5.4%} [7.8%] (11.0%)
- Herman Cain 9.8% {23.3%} [29.6%] (26.4%)
- Rick Perry 6.6% {8.8%} [5.6%] (5.8%)
- Rick Santorum 3.3% {3.4%}
- Someone else 3.2% {1.7%} [5.5%] (3.0%)
- No opinion 14.1% {12.8%} [14.2%] (13.1%)
Among Men
- Newt Gingrich 22.9% {14.2%} [13.3%] (12.8%)
- Ron Paul 19.0% {14.0%} [10.6%] (13.2%)
- Michele Bachmann 15.5% {5.9%} [10.4%] (10.1%)
- Herman Cain 14.2% {31.4%} [30.4%] (32.5%)
- Mitt Romney 7.4% {19.1%} [12.6%] (14.9%)
- Rick Perry 5.7% {8.1%} [4.6%] (6.0%)
- Rick Santorum 3.6% {0.6%}
- Someone else 3.6% {1.0%} [8.1%] (3.1%)
- No opinion 8.1% {5.7%} [8.4%] (5.8%)
Among Women
- Newt Gingrich 33.1% {14.7%} [10.2%] (11.5%)
- Mitt Romney 15.2% {18.4%} [17.1%] (21.2%)
- Ron Paul 7.8% {9.0%} [6.9%] (6.1%)
- Rick Perry 7.2% {9.4%} [6.5%] (5.6%)
- Herman Cain 5.8% {15.5%} [28.9%] (20.6%)
- Michele Bachmann 5.2% {5.0%} [5.3%] (11.8%)
- Rick Santorum 3.1% {6.2%}
- Someone else 2.8% {2.4%} [3.1%] (3.0%)
- No opinion 19.7% {19.4%} [19.8%] (20.0%)
Survey of 509 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted November 28, 2011 for Newsmax. Party ID breakdown: 67.4% {73.2%} [76.5%] Republican; 28.3% {24.1%} [20.7%] Independent; 4.3% {2.8%} [2.8%] Democrat. Results from the poll conducted November 8, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 3, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 16, 2011 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
November 29th, 2011 at 9:27 am
Newt is now clearly the front runner, and he is not being vetted by the media or democrats. This is the guy that they want to face. It is John McCain all over. The media has chosen its nominee. Easy kill for Obama
November 29th, 2011 at 9:29 am
Insider Advantage is consistent – It had Cain up 15 pts on Romney in October (about the time The Desmoines Register Poll had the race a dead heat).
I am betting other polls show this to be much closer.
November 29th, 2011 at 9:30 am
Boom shacka-lacka boom boom shacka-lacka boom boom
November 29th, 2011 at 9:32 am
It is foolhardy to doubt me.
November 29th, 2011 at 9:32 am
LOL
So, Lets see about Iowa. Romney gets 26 % of vote in 2008, running against an EV Minister, Mike Huckabee.
Romney now loses 60 % of that vote to a serial adulterer who has flip flopped exponentially more than Romney was ever even accused of and has a new calendar in preparation with Herman Cain called ” Babes of the Month “. Gingrich , on his third wife , and more ex -girlfriends in his ROBO file than Cain ever hoped for, is now scoring above 30 % with Iowa women, highest of all the candidates in the polls history an a state dominated by evangelical Christians.
Excuse me , folks………….but Obama, as Barney Franks said yesterday, may get an early Christmas and may really coast to reelection. Then, for all the ROMNOTS , it’s on to 2016 and Obama gets to add to his frequent flyer miles. A redefinition of the term ” DimWits”
CraigS
November 29th, 2011 at 9:33 am
Proud to say my vote counted in this poll!
November 29th, 2011 at 9:35 am
#2 – I just looked at Insider Advantage polling in Iowa from 2007/8. They polled a couple days before the caucus and were only 1% off. Assuming their methodology is the same they are able to capture what is happening on the ground.
November 29th, 2011 at 9:37 am
Guys, we saw this play out with McCain. Newt will not be vetted until after he wins the nomination. The media is choosing our candidate
November 29th, 2011 at 9:37 am
Cue ‘em up Rombots….what’cha got?
“The media has chosen its nominee”
“Romney wasn’t really trying to compete in Iowa anyway”
“Romney NEEDS Newt to win Iowa”
“Iowa voters are just stupid DimWits anyway who never matter”
Anything original?
November 29th, 2011 at 9:40 am
#9 LOL. You forgot, “Romney would be running away with this if Iowans weren’t bigots.”
November 29th, 2011 at 9:42 am
All primary long I have tried to let the Huckafools and Palinistas wind their crazy down and hopefully come to some kind of sane resolution. But, clearly, some people will hang on to their crazy to the bitter end.
It’s a shame some people didn’t realize this race pretty much ended the day Christie decided not to run. Silly rabbits.
November 29th, 2011 at 9:43 am
Jimmy Carter wanted to run against Reagan too.
Republicans thought Obama would be easier to defeat than Hillary.
Rombots need to buck up or get back in the truck, this whining is so unseemly.
November 29th, 2011 at 9:43 am
The poll is probably a bit of an outlier on Mitt’s numbers, but Newt numbers are probably correct.
But what I find fascinating is how the Mitt team raised expectations in Iowa in the last week. Mitt had the correct strategy in Iowa…but they blew it.
Made an upcoming Iowa loss even bigger
November 29th, 2011 at 9:45 am
Chuck Grassley and Terry Branstad would lose in the Iowa Caucus, that’s how rigged the system is by the tiny, fanatical religious super-minority. If Iowa held a primary, Romney would win with Branstad margins or larger.
The simple fact is only by excluding the full spectrum of republicans can the O’Donnell/Cain/Gingrich wing beat Romney.
Unfortunately for the crazies, the big states, the swing states, not the mention NH and NV will deliver us from their Sharron Angle-esque mission.
November 29th, 2011 at 9:46 am
Smack1968 Says:
November 29th, 2011 at 9:43 am
The poll is probably a bit of an outlier on Mitt’s numbers, but Newt numbers are probably correct.
But what I find fascinating is how the Mitt team raised expectations in Iowa in the last week. Mitt had the correct strategy in Iowa…but they blew it.
Made an upcoming Iowa loss even bigger
============================================================
It will be interesting to see if Newt can get his voters out on a cold Iowa night with absolutely no organization. I am still predicting a far different order.
1. Romney
2. Paul
3. Newt
November 29th, 2011 at 9:48 am
I have a serious question. Why did Mitt’s numbers among men crater? Was it the debate?
November 29th, 2011 at 9:48 am
Smack
You’ve been so wrong so often I figured you would’ve ducked back under your rock by now.
November 29th, 2011 at 9:50 am
#7 – I expect their numbers will be very close to the actual result days before the caucus.
Pollsters who want to maintain their credibility make sure their results are very accurate when they can be judged against actual voting results.
When polls are not judged against results, like when it is 5 weeks out from an election polls can be all over the place (for a variety of reasons).
I just expect that there will be new polls out that show this to be much closer as the previous IA polls have clearly shown themselves to be quite different from other polls this cycle.
November 29th, 2011 at 9:51 am
Gingrich will fail to match Romney’s 2008 turnout in Iowa, and no one will match Huckabee’s. The Huck coalition is in tatters, and only a unified effort can stop Mitt.
Steve Deace, typical O’Donnell Wing religious nut and Iowa radio host, held a forum and asked questions on Gingrich to his evangelical audience. Every single one of them said Gingrich’s disgraceful personal life will be a factor in their decision. Awww
Combined with Santorum, Bachmann, and Perry all have better organization in the state than Gingrich, Romney is in for a rather pleasant caucus night on January 3.
November 29th, 2011 at 9:54 am
Notice Romney is not spending a dime against Newt. Not a dime. Why? Because he’s a non-threat. The notion that a man who is morally bankrupt and in a worst financial position than Huckabee was is going to outlast Mitt is ludicrous.
It would just be easier for you guys to accept the reality of the situation: Mitt is the nominee.
November 29th, 2011 at 9:55 am
17. At least he never fell for the Perry enigma like some brainiacs on here.
November 29th, 2011 at 10:02 am
#20 – As is the case sometimes, you are either crazy or brilliant.
November 29th, 2011 at 10:09 am
As I have been pointing out…..in the last couple of polls….. it has been shown it is Romney’s support that is the most wobbly. His “Strong Support” numbers have been much weaker than Newt’s.
Team Mitt has a “Mitt” problem……not a ABR problem.
The question is…who is going to become the Anti-Newt?……Huntsman??
November 29th, 2011 at 10:12 am
Again I would observe that any polling firm that provides numbers to the tenth of a percent implies a level of precision to their polls that simply does not exist. Candidates at 28.1%, 13.3%? Really? What is the MOE?
November 29th, 2011 at 10:16 am
Smack
You’d think after the T-Paw and Christie things blew up in your face, you’d give it a rest. Unfortunately, we’re just not that lucky around here.
Thankfully we’re just a few weeks away from Mitt wrapping this thing up.
November 29th, 2011 at 10:17 am
#24 – It’s simple math.
November 29th, 2011 at 10:18 am
Tele, you are annoying…i want Newt, but I am not acting like he was always my candidate or that im his strongest supporter. We all know you are a saracuda diehard. It is silly for you to pretend you have always supported newt. Your record isnt one that screams “it is foolhard to doubt me” because everyone who doubted you on palin was dead on.
November 29th, 2011 at 10:19 am
The whining seems to be coming from romnots not romney supporters. I am a romney supporter and this does not bother me.
newt will be more formidable than cain or perry or any of the other picks of the month, but the fact is he has an uphill battle against romney.
if romney decides to play hard in iowa he can win or come second. with organization and tv money he will be able to completely hammer newt until newt is left with nothing.
what will newt to in response to 5 million in tv ads for romney and against newt two weeks before voting time?
while romney does not have this wrapped all you smart people who think that he has not shot are just being dishonest with yourselves.
newt has an uphill battle. is he in it, yes, most definitely. can he maintain his strength and win caucuses and primaries? that is still very much up in the air. anyone who says otherwise is just living in the clouds.
November 29th, 2011 at 10:21 am
pablo smack tele cr and co. just make themselves look like bias hacks the way they spew crap.
there are some posters that when they post you actually read and think about because despite their candidate they are able to be objective and logical. this blog is going downhill because those posters are being drowned out by the likes of casuist and others.
November 29th, 2011 at 10:30 am
This poll is an outlier, but simply exaggerates Newt’s position at the moment. There’s NO doubt Gingrich has a healthy lead in the state at this point.
Savor the moment, RomNots, for it’s all downhill from here.
November 29th, 2011 at 10:59 am
#28 – I guess my question would be, if Romney spending $11 million in 2007/8 didn’t do the trick why would half that amount work this time in Iowa?
November 29th, 2011 at 11:11 am
29,
I rarely, if ever, waste my time reading posts from pablo, tele, or cr any more.
They don’t have anything of substance to add, so it saves a lot of time skipping over them.
I don’t read smack very often either.
November 29th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Max Twain,
I was one of those that supported Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin, and I don’t consider a right-wing evangelical or some right-wing nut. I liked their ideas and thoughts. Since they are now in the race, I’ve moved on. Right now, I support both Mitt Romney & Michele Bachmann in this race. I love to see Bachmann win Iowa and South Carolina, and Mitt win New Hampshire and Florida and both shut Gingrich, Perry, Huntsman and Santorum out those wins. But, I don’t consider myself a fool or a crazy cause I’ve supported Huck and Palin in the past.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
31, anybody with a brain knows spending is not end all be all. romney need to outspend his opponents and early because going against the likes of mccain and giuliani required it. name id is a big part of the politics game.
at this point he has name recognition and been thoroughly vetted. he has WAY WAY more money than anybody else in the race at this point. He also is WAY WAY more organized than newt or anybody else for that matter.
My point is the race is not over for gingrich or romney. romney has an edge. any objective observer can see that. furthermore, ginrich appears to be posing a legimate threat to romney at this point with his surge in all of these polls.
so both are in good positions but newt has an uphill battle because romney ash the money and organization edge going into the voting.
he will be everywhere with tv ads on on television shows when it matters. he is polisehd, knowledgeable, and probably won’t flub much.
gingrich is a lose cannon, does not have hte money to respond to mitt’s attack ads that will probably come if his numbers hold, and has no organization or money at this point.
i just take most your comments as pure shilling for your candidate. rarely to you add much substance to the conversation. i agree with many posters, its i best to ignore you and read posts that provide insight.
romney’s money and organization don’t guarantee him anything, but they give him a significant edge.
newt seems to be getting the ‘tea party’ vote right now. if he can hold on to that, which cain, bachmann, and co weren’t able to do, he stands a good shot.
her must prove he is not just another fling of hte month though.