As notes below, Rasmussen Reports is out with a new poll on the New Hampshire GOP Primary race.
Some highlights from the cross-tabs (which subscribers have access to):
- Newt is doing well in this latest poll but he seems to have a serious issue with younger voters 18-39, only 6% of whom indicated that they would vote for Gringrich versus 36% for Romney. Anomaly or serious issue?
- Romney is still holding the key demo: 40 to 64 year old moderate Republicans. Newt is at 26% of the “somewhat conservative” votes vs. 41% for Romney. This group makes up over half of the most likely voters.
- Romney is also holding a 15 point lead on those who are certain to vote on election day.
- Newt has the serious edge with the Tea Party vote in New Hampshire doubling Romney’s 22% to take 44% of this activist demo.
- Surprisingly, Romney has 44% of the Catholic vote over Gingrich with 27%. What gives there? Are Catholics more moderate?
- Here’s a curious ditty: Ras. Reports asked “Which candidate did the Manchester Union Leader Endorse?”. The correct answer is Gingrich but 58% of Romney supporters thought Romney got the nod. We’ll see if things change when word gets out further.
- In the ancillary questions we find that 20% of New Hampshire Ron Paul supporters would vote for a third party rather than a GOP nominee not named Ron; Santorum has the biggest share of Obama loathers with 93% of his vote saying that they STRONGLY disapprove of Obama.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
Rombots, the end is near. Spin away all you want.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:14 pm
Manchester Union Leader:
“We just didn’t endorse Gingrich today. We are ENDORSING NEWT EVERY DAY and will do whatever it takes.”
November 29th, 2011 at 1:17 pm
Getting ahead of yourself again. December is a long month. Who knows what scandals or bad debate performances will happen if any.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
Romney ahead in voters younger than 40 by a margin 36 to 6 over Gingrich is a pretty telling stat. And it’s not surprising that Tea Partiers would give Newt the nod over Mitt by a margin of 44% to 22%. One thing blatantly clear by now is that AT LEAST 44% of Tea Partiers are totally clueless.
Gingrich, who added more than $16 Trillion in unfunded liabilities to our debt problems, while padding his own finances to the tune of $35 Million, by lobbying for Medicare Part D, would SEEM to be anathema to the Tea Party movement.
When Tea Party activists learn stuff like this, will it make a difference to them? For some it will, and for others, sadly, it won’t.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:22 pm
I think it’s telling regarding the 18-39 year olds. I think that this is where Romney is competitive with Obama and where Obama is most fearful of Romney. The young vote is looking for leadership and competence. They thought they were getting that with Obama. This is a serious challenge to the Dems and they know it. Academia is not just about knowledge, it’s about showing younger voters how to be good thinkers and they look and see Romney as most presidential. Obama’s losing his hold on them and I believe that most of them are going in a different direction are either going for either Paul or Romney.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
4 – I believe that all the other non-Romney’s will start going after Newt. They’ll probably knock about 15 points off Newt when all is done. I believe that Romney can at least take 5% of that and the rest will be divided up among the others. Romney will be fine.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:27 pm
“58% of Romney supporters thought Romney got the nod”
These people vote and breed
They live among us and you can’t do a thing about it
November 29th, 2011 at 1:27 pm
2
Keep supporting Gingrich, please. Now that you’re on board, he’s dead in the water.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:29 pm
7.
I’m willing to bet over 90% of Gingrich supporters don’t believe he was one of the highest paid lobbyists in DC or don’t care cause Newt is just so dreamy when he attacks the media.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:32 pm
Pablo (NOT PabloZed) over at RightSpeak has a post up about how people who love this country have to take the fight to Fox and Talk Radio if we want to get our party back and save America. He thinks it’s time to fight these morons. And it’s up to us who follow political reality to do it.
He’s right.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:33 pm
7. “These people vote and breed”
Yes, BUT they don’t read the Union Leader.
And with the UL endorsing Newty, I can understand why people don’t waste their time reading it.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:35 pm
#3. The amazing thing is Newt is a walking scandal. From the party that say “charactor matters” it is assinine to think we could nominate Newt. Great role model!?!
November 29th, 2011 at 1:36 pm
12. *says
November 29th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
BTW,
Pablo uses the Hedgehog Report’s electoral numbers showing Mitt with 256 to Obama’s 256, while Newt gets annihilated, as proof that Fox is brainwashing its viewers. He quotes Greta as saying that Obama should be afraid of a Newt candidacy, not a Romney candidacy….and suggests Fox viewers probably really believe that Newt would be the more electable candidate.
And, if you got all of your political information from watching Fox, that would be a rational conclusion.
It’s time to fight.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:44 pm
Put up or shut up. Meanwhile: Romney’s Fading Popularity
November 29th, 2011 at 1:46 pm
14. “It’s time to fight.”
It’s actually long past time to fight…but whenever there is a ‘fight’ we can count on the moderate Romney wing of the party to capitulate and compromise.
Moderates by their nature are not fighters…so I think you’re kinda screwed dude. Sorry.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:48 pm
14
Greta doesn’t actually know anything about Romney, that’s why she feels the way she does.
I heard her say a couple of times, “someone should examine his business career before the general election because I think he may have fired more people than he hired.”
Which, is nonsense.
And this goes to the heart of why I hate the media. Because they’re all a bunch of clueless journalism majors who know nothing about Capitalism, Conservatism, family values, economics, business, or pretty much anything, other than increasing viewership/readership for money.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:49 pm
16
Newt Gingrich raised taxes and cut defense as speaker. He compromised a LOT.
And he compromised a lot to appear on TV with Pelosi.
In that case, he compromised his dignity, integrity, and image for cash.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
#17
I don’t watch Greta often. I am surprised at those comments.
You will be happy to know Ann Coulter on MSNBC this morn was saying Fox is wrong to bash Romney.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:53 pm
19
Nice, but not good enough. Hardly any GOP primary voters watch MSNBC.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:56 pm
MSNBC has turned into Romney’s most supportive news station.
What does that tell you?
hmmmmm
Makes perfect sense and reinforces what we’ve always known about Mitt’s appeal.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:57 pm
What a strange conclusion.
Any of these are more likely reasons:
* They don’t like Newt’s immorality
* They’re actually more CONSERVATIVE and don’t see Newt as conservative
* They want a COMPETENT president
* They want a candidate that can BEAT Obama
* They hate evangelicals and the enemy of my enemy is my friend
November 29th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
I would say it was ironic only it is perfectly consistent with the facts as we know them about Willard’s character, conduct, record of governance, and his frequent temper tantrums.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
Joe Scarborough has a particular hatred of Newt it seems. It’s funny to hear he is pushing Huntsman now. I saw Huntsman’s appearance on his show and frankly I was not impressed, but they liked him.
November 29th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
#22 – Catholics, according to Pew, are also more accepting of mormons.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:00 pm
8. MassCon, you’re giving CR too much credit. Sure, he’s BAD at picking candidates. But, every one of these losers would have tanked all on their own.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:00 pm
http://thehill.com/video/in-the-news/195823-christie-rips-obama-for-supercommittee-failure-what-the-hell-are-we-paying-you-for
christie would be a great vp choice.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:00 pm
Dave Says:
November 29th, 2011 at 1:32 pm
Pablo (NOT PabloZed) over at RightSpeak has a post up about how people who love this country have to take the fight to Fox and Talk Radio if we want to get our party back and save America. He thinks it’s time to fight these morons. And it’s up to us who follow political reality to do it.
===
Why are all Rombots such whiners?
November 29th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
28
We’re fighters, not whiners.
We don’t just talk. We act.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
Problem with Gingrich is that he’s a flip flopper and lacks character. Plus, he’s all used up from years and years in Washington D.C. It would be like California electing Jerry Brown for Governor again or something crazy like that.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
Willard only ever won one election and by a plurality not a majority during a very good year for Republicans. His electoral performance is as bad as his performance as a governor as evidenced by his ranking #48 in favorability among U.S. governors the year he left office.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
I was on conference call at 11:15am this morning with Herman Cain himself, where he explained to us that, once again, the accusations against him are COMPLETELY FALSE. He ALSO explained that he is NOT considering dropping out of the campaign, despite what the media is reporting. The campaign is moving forward as planned. Additionally, he shared that Ginger White WAS a friend of his (and his wife’s) and she was a struggling unemployed single mom who received several eviction notices due to being unable to pay her rent. So being the good man that he is, Mr. Cain helped her out financially as a FRIEND, as he has done for other friends in the past.
Sorry, Rombots.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
]
Yeahright. Talking about acting doesn’t count. Get out there and act.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
Cain/Newt 2012!
November 29th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Young voters are really apathetic above all else. It’s quite obvious that most young people don’t give a darn about politics and are openly contemptuous of it.
There were a lot of Obama kiddies last time around, but they are mysteriously quiet lately.
The folks that do care, are almost all Ron Paul supporters
November 29th, 2011 at 2:05 pm
32. LOL! CR, Romney supporters WANT Cain doing well and staying in the race. He’s GOOD for Romney. If he survives this latest accusation, Romney supporters should (I know I will) have a raving celebration.
Thanks for the laugh, CR.
And, now back to my regularly scheduled BOYCOTT OF CRAIG FOR LOSERS.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
28.
Then why are Rombots such chronic whiners who never seem to enjoy politics? In fact, they appear to hate it!!!
But they sure love their boy, Weird Willard. Warts and all.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:08 pm
No matter what he does, no matter what he says, no matter how he fails, Willard is the doyen of excellence in all things for the Willardist howler monkeys.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:08 pm
Keith,
Like Kavon says, “seriously?”
Grow up. You’re out of your league, Newby.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:09 pm
37
If anyone is weird, it’s you. You have spent more time on this site and ROS (and countless other sites) for the past three years than I have spent in my office. And I’m a busy man.
You are the weird one. Not “Willard,” not anyone else.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:09 pm
Ah, youth. I was a libertarian too once. Sigh.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:09 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement
Yep, that’s Newt Gingrich all the way. KOOKOO!
November 29th, 2011 at 2:10 pm
Pear-shaped slacker says what?
November 29th, 2011 at 2:10 pm
38.
So true. And now they’re coming our of the woodwork like newby fanboy Keith.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:11 pm
Willard is the antithesis of the Tea Party ethos. Get over it.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:12 pm
43
I don’t know. What DOES he say?
Are you speaking about Newt, or yourself?
November 29th, 2011 at 2:13 pm
Ah, youth. I was a libertarian too once. Sigh.
I don’t know, as for me I don’t consider myself one.
I just know we’re spending the future into oblivion and that has to stop now.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:13 pm
40
Busy Man in TaxaFeesAChusetts where Romney insured you would remain 47th in job creation.
You’re always here. Go get some clients or get a job, fool.
Btw, you ARE my customer here. All Rombots are 24/7.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Doubtless he sleeps with his Willard the Clown
dollaction figure.Did you know Willard the vain had plastic surgery? It’s true. http://dailycaller.com/2011/11/21/political-plastic-surgeries-slideshow/romney-3/ He also dyed his hair gray when he was young; now that he’s old and out of touch he dyes it black. Why is Willard never content with Willard as he is? Why does he expect us to be if he himself is not?
November 29th, 2011 at 2:21 pm
MSNBC isn’t pro-Romney just because they let Ann Coulter in.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:21 pm
22. “What a strange conclusion.
“Any of these are more likely reasons:
* They don’t like Newt’s immorality
* They’re actually more CONSERVATIVE and don’t see Newt as conservative
* They want a COMPETENT president
* They want a candidate that can BEAT Obama
* They hate evangelicals and the enemy of my enemy is my friend”
BINGO!!!!
November 29th, 2011 at 2:22 pm
48
My business is kicking ass. You wish you had a job, don’t you?
November 29th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
25 “Catholics, according to Pew, are also more accepting of mormons.”
You mean they aren’t closed minded bigots like “true” Christians?
WOW!! Who knew?
November 29th, 2011 at 2:26 pm
I wonder how long the Tea Party folks will stay with Gingrich before they realize that he lobbied for more entitlements, for the federal housing bubble with Freddie, and for the taxpayers taking on themselves the obligations of the idiotic banking sector.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
the commercial that will end hope newt ever has….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi6n_-wB154
November 29th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
I have to say that I find it disappointing to have Newt as the emerging alternative to Mittens. I actually once favored the idea of Newt in the race last cycle due to his rhetorical talents, but was soon reminded of how he can really turn people off with his bombast, in particular when he decides to support some liberal idea. Back in my political salad days in the ’90s, I generally found him off-putting, especially when he would riff on some big government idea that fell out of his face spontaneously.
Hopefully he isn’t the last non-Romney standing. I might just have to turn myself into a Paultard.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:33 pm
Thunder,
Yeah, once people see Newt and Nancy on a couch looking at each other lovingly as they talk about global warming, that will hurt him.
My money is on Bachmann completely tearing into Newt.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
Hopefully he isn’t the last non-Romney standing. I might just have to turn myself into a Paultard.
The boat’s always got room for more
November 29th, 2011 at 2:39 pm
Greatest thing about Smack, CR and Casuist? Their posting style. It makes it easy to skim over their white noise and get the comments that are worth something.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:39 pm
Yeah. But Bachmann has basically turned into a little yipping dog.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:39 pm
“Aaaaaaaaaaaanderson………Aaaaaaaaaaanderson……”
November 29th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
I’m not worry about Gingrich but his rise in the polls is only another proof that the GOP base is not very rich of gray matter.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
I was curious how those oh so pious evangelical leader in Iowa could possibly support Newt. I’m wondering no more.
>>In 2010, Mr. Gingrich helped you secure $200,000 in seed money for one of your efforts.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/69334.html
Yep, nothing but smooth sailing for the Good Ship Newt.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Yeah. But Bachmann has basically turned into a little yipping dog.
Hahaha, hasn’t she always been one?
But she’ll be the one to tear at Newt, as I don’t see Perry doing it.
If neither will, Romney somewhat uncomfortably will do it.
November 29th, 2011 at 2:49 pm
63 – Whew. Well at least BVP won’t be stabbing Newt in the back.
That’s the Iowa Feel Good Story Of The Year for the anti-Mitt crowd
November 29th, 2011 at 3:05 pm
Gunlock Bill for Romney Says:
November 29th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
“You mean they aren’t closed minded bigots like “true” Christians?”
Wow, don’t hold back. Tells us what Romney and his supporters really think about Christians.
November 29th, 2011 at 3:10 pm
casuist = tool. When will this guy be banned?
November 29th, 2011 at 3:20 pm
Yea, verily, and amen.
November 29th, 2011 at 3:26 pm
Yes, and by “banned” you must mean banned again, as evidenced by my frequent and sometimes lengthy absences, but more on topic, does it seem to any of you super-genius Willardists that perhaps Emperor Romney has No Clothes?
Just so. Me too.
November 29th, 2011 at 3:27 pm
It is strange to me how when a Willardist adds the qualifier “true” to a term—e.g. true Christians, true conservatives—it becomes a bad thing.
November 29th, 2011 at 3:38 pm
#69 – That DNC ad stripped Romney bare.
November 29th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
69
Keep your sexual fantasies out of this conversation, Casuist.
November 29th, 2011 at 3:48 pm
Why, yes, and do you what’s more disturbing fantasy than a butt-naked Willard? Willard’s so-called electability: What if everything we have been told about Mitt Romney’s electability is wrong?
November 29th, 2011 at 3:56 pm
67.
Guaranteed not before you are, troll.
November 29th, 2011 at 4:15 pm
The anti-Romney people do have a point in that Romney has a few unique attacks pre-made for the Democrats.
There’s enough disgraced corporate executives out there to make the picture of Romney and his Bain buddies loaded with money as if flaunting it not come over too well.
But Romney’s electability is a whole other bear. In the end Obama will have a tough road regardless the candidate because of the likely state of the economy and US employment in late 2012 (not good)
November 29th, 2011 at 5:41 pm
god help us if Newt wins this …months upon months of circular arguments, rhetorical nonsense, arguments with no beginning, end, or conclusion (yet they are considered to show Newt’s (lol) brainpower), repeated declarations of “profound historical points that americans must understand”,……yep, really can’t wait for months and months of newt’s lightweight intellectualism
November 29th, 2011 at 6:15 pm
What gives there? Are Catholics more moderate?
As a voting bloc, Catholics are going to be more moderate on many issues due to the reality that the term “Catholic” is as much a cultural label as a religious one. Most Catholics in this country are raised in the Church, are baptised as babies, and generally hold onto the label long after they become adults and decide whether or not they actually believe in Catholicism and intend to practice it. So you’ve got a wide range of “Catholics,” from those who spend every weekend at Confession to those who aren’t even sure if there’s a deity anymore. Similar to Jews, Catholics in America tend to view the label as indicating more about their heritage than the particularities of their theology.
November 29th, 2011 at 8:39 pm
CR
Doesn’t it legitimately bug you that the media are tearing Cain apart for unsubstantiated rumors about women and affairs
While they promote the candidacy of Newt Gingrich who has fully substantiated affairs and sexual liaisons with real women that he readily admits to.
Very strange, kind of a sexual litmus test. do you believe it’s racial? after all, Cain is black, his accusers are black. newt is white. his wives were white and all of his girlfriends were white as well. Double standard for your guys ?
CraigS