Although Mitt Romney has been the frontrunner for most of the 2012 pre-primary/caucus season, and Newt Gingrich has made a remarkable comeback to become his major challenger, it might be useful, less than 40 days from the first voting in Iowa, to take a look at the other candidates and see how they might do before time and resources run out on them.
In Iowa, Michele Bachmann is pulling out all stops to remain viable for the rest of the campaign. An Iowa native who won the August Iowa Straw Poll, and with a significant Iowa organization, especially in the socially conservative religious community, her low current poll numbers may not accurately predict her true strength on January 3. She no longer appears to be as well-funded as she was several months ago, and she has to do well, that is, a second-place finish or better, in order to keep her effort credible going into New Hampshire and South Carolin where she also has serious organizational and media efforts.
Rick Perry was not too long ago expected to win the Iowa caucus, but following poor performances at several candidate debates, his poll numbers have nose-dived, and he is no longer considered a first tier candidate. Nevertheless, Mr. Perry has lots of money in his campaign treasury, and if he could somehow convince Iowa voters to take a second look at him, he might do better than expected., and be able to compete in later primaries.
Herman Cain was a media target for allegations about his private life as long as his polling “bubble” showed him to be a contender. Now that his numbers have fallen, the media stories have seemed to stop. Perhaps the larger reason for his polling decline, however, was his performance in the debates where he seemed not to have the grasp of the issues displayed by most of his rivals. It is now unlikely that Mr. Cain will regain his former standing in any of the upcoming primaries.
Ron Paul has his greatest base of support in Iowa, has run there well in a previous cycle, has a loyal libertarian following who are likely to turn out for the caucus. His results are the most difficult to predict. There is a chance he could win in Iowa, a better chance he might come in second, an odds-on chance he will come in third or fourth. Beyond Iowa, however, he has only a small (albeit loyal) following in most other states. His successful fundraising means, however, he can stay in the race until the end. If he did win Iowa, it would mean that the caucus results here would become regarded mostly as irrelevant. Iowan voters probably will not to choose such a self-inflicted political wound to their “first in the nation” status.
Rick Santorum does have some conservative support, and has spent much time in Iowa, but even if he does better than expected, it will not be enough to enable him to compete credibly past New Hampshire. John Huntsman has, more or less, ignored Iowa, and concentrated on New Hampshire where there were signs he was receiving some attention from Granite State primary voters. Newt Gingrich’s recent comeback and endorsement from the state’s most influential newspaper, however, may have torpedoed Mr. Huntsman’s opportunity to thus gain vital traction in the early voting.
Most likely, we are coming to a critical contest in the next six weeks between Mr, Romney and Mr. Gingrich. The timing of the rise of the latter in the polls could not be better, and there is little question that Mr. Gingrich will be the darling of the news headlines for the next several weeks. But now he must face an aroused Mitt Romney and his campaign staff who now realize that they must compete seriously in Iowa and try to head off the Gingrich phenomenon before it gains unstoppable momentum.
I think the first round of this battle went to the former speaker when he stated his broad immigration policy that called for long-time illegal residents who have become positive members of their communities to remain in the country. I believe that strategist/historian Gingrich wanted Mr. Romney to attack him for this, which the former Massachusetts governor promptly did, thus putting Romney on the wrong political side of an issue that will be vital to Hispanic voters in 2012. It was therefore a sophisticated “chess” move, and has given Mr. Gingrich an advantage as the primaries head south and west. I also don’t think the Gingrich stand will hurt him very much in Iowa and New Hampshire, as conventional wisdom might suggest it would, but only actual results will decide this question.
Although Mr. Romney’s support has not gained much from his poll numbers in the 20s, he has shown much resilience in the campaign so far, holding his own in the debates, and successfully portraying himself as someone in charge. His campaign caution has proved a good strategy to date, although with a major challenger now of Mr. Gingrich’s stature, he will need to come out of these safe political shadows and engage fully in the contest if he is to prevail. Friends and foes of Mr. Gingrich have lately been making the point that he is capable of self-destruction and fumbles, but so far he seems carefully pursuing a strategy that fuels his sudden rise in the polls.
This is an election cycle with incessant ups and downs, It is also a cycle in which the Old Media dominance has been overtaken by considerable impact from New Media, including internet networking, conservative radio talks show hosts, as well as a more independent and skeptical electorate.
International economic circumstances, revolutions in the Middle East, and political upheaval in Europe, as well as the chronic domestic U.S. crisis, all make surprises very possible in the eleven months before Americans choose their next president.
Iowa and New Hampshire should be interesting overtures in the U.S. 2012 election opera, but there will likely be several dramatic acts to follow.
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-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site.
November 28th, 2011 at 7:45 pm
Very nice Front Page Post.
Thank you sir.
November 28th, 2011 at 7:47 pm
>> I also don’t think the Gingrich stand will hurt him very much in Iowa and New Hampshire, as conventional wisdom might suggest it would, but only actual results will decide this question.
Perhaps. But the anecdotal evidence is piling up pretty rapidly that it will indeed hurt Newt quite a bit in Iowa.
>>“I count Gingrich as one of those who peaked and is now descending,” said western Iowa GOP activist Ann Trimble-Ray, citing the boom-and-bust pattern that has marked the Republican race to date. “Immigration [is a] third rail for Iowans and Newt landed right on it.”
>>His rivals know it.
>>For the conservatives trailing Gingrich who need a strong showing in Iowa — Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann — immigration presents their best and potentially last chance to knock out the Republican now standing between them and a clean shot at Romney. And for Romney himself, immigration is a potent issue that he could use to get to the right of Gingrich and raise doubts among the party’s base about just how conservative the would-be conservative alternative is to the establishment favorite. Then there is Ron Paul, no Gingrich fan, who appears to have a ceiling on how much mainstream Republican support he can draw but also has the money on hand to do serious damage to his rivals on the airwaves.
>>Santorum communications director Hogan Gidley indicated in an email that they’d be confronting Gingrich over more than just his immigration stance.
>>“While the press has been dying to write Romney vs. anti-Romney — Newt’s record clearly shows he’s is not the anti-Romney, he’s Romney-redo,” wrote Gidley. “Whether it’s amnesty, the individual health care mandate, cap and tax or TARP — Speaker Gingrich has taken the same positions as Romney.”
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=B6E678C3-9F55-4052-9726-BCC307179759
Newt’s problem in Iowa is not going to come chiefly from Romney. It will come from all the other not Romney’s who are desperate to win the social con/evangelical vote and Newt has just given them the hammer to bludgeon him with.
But I do agree that the issue that will ultimately decide this primary and quite possibly the election isn’t even on the radar yet. Europe is getting ready to descend into currency collapse, violence and general disarray. What that leads to is anyone’s guess.
November 28th, 2011 at 7:48 pm
Very lovely, general information. I read Romney’s making a full court press on Iowa. I suspect that as with most things, he will likely succeed. Luckily for him if he doesn’t, he has put himself in a position where it may not matter anyways. Go Mitt. I’m with America’s sheriffs on this one.
November 28th, 2011 at 7:50 pm
Cain shouldn’t have lied about the not doing anything appropriate ever thing. He is a good liar. That’s the last thing we need at this point. I really took a liking to his wife and I’m doing this for her.
November 28th, 2011 at 7:50 pm
Ummm.. more like high teens to very low 20s after five years of running and $100 mil (half his own).
So weak.
Next,please.
November 28th, 2011 at 7:56 pm
Good summary, except it could be argued that Newt surged too soon. Now he’s got to handle another full month of vetting. Word hasn’t gotten out about his scandalous past.
I think Mitt should paint the dual as the businessman vs. the lobbyist.
Washington needs change (again). A lobbyist who sounds bright onstage is not what the Dr ordered. However, newt can possibly offer some good advice, assuming he’s kept on a short leash and far away from any temptation.
It should also be noted that the Dems want to run against Newt. The likes of Bill Clinton are singing his praises, while the Dems are running attack ads in swing States against Romney.
Romney is most feared by Democrats.
Watch for a surprise Huckabee endorsement. His nod will drop a bomb in this race. Mitt ought to be calling him every night and get some kind of quid pro quo going.
November 28th, 2011 at 7:59 pm
Watch out for this Thursday’s debate.
It will be a turning point one way or another.
The beginning of the end for either Newt or Mitt.
November 28th, 2011 at 7:59 pm
I do wonder if Gingrich laid that immigration trap. It was sheer brilliance if he did.
I also think the new dem ad is a game changer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9njHHyRI7g&feature=player_embedded#
November 28th, 2011 at 7:59 pm
Hey CR, do the math: people have donated over 50 million to Mitt? That can only be explained by assuming some passion on the part of Romney supporters.
November 28th, 2011 at 8:01 pm
Another Newt Gingrich Flip Flop
Here is an interview from 2006/07, where in the former speakers says ALL illegals need to go home first…..
http://rightwingnews.com/interviews/gingrich.php
But hey he’s not Romney, so he can “Oooops… what a little mistake that was!”
Now slugs like CR will have re-spin their logic again.
November 28th, 2011 at 8:04 pm
Newt’s big vulnerability is and has always been character and stability. If Santorum and Bachmann can hit hard on that front, perhaps they can damage them. I hope so because that’s where he would be damaged if he were to run in the general.
November 28th, 2011 at 8:06 pm
>>Watch for a surprise Huckabee endorsement. His nod will drop a bomb in this race. Mitt ought to be calling him every night and get some kind of quid pro quo going.
I’m not sure its going to be much of a surprise at this point. Huck has been dropping all sorts of bon mots Romney’s way as of late. There’s no way those two have become so buddy buddy after last election without something going on behind the scenes.
Huck’s forum is this Saturday and after that I expect he will either publicly endorse Romney or quietly turn his troops loose to support Romney.
November 28th, 2011 at 8:06 pm
Doug: Newt’s a lobbyist. He’s basically paid to take a position. His brain has been trained to find the most compelling arguments to whatever position his employers wish.
A good debate would include Newt v Obama.
A GREAT debate would be Newt v Newt. So charming and whimsical. So full of fresh ideas. So logical and so contradictory.
A lobbyist thinks of the best way to argue for whatever side he’s hired to argue.
November 28th, 2011 at 8:07 pm
Really big time news out of Florida for Romney. All three major leaders of Cuban American Community will endorse Romney tomorrow in Miami. U.S Representatives Ileana Ros Lehtinen and Mario Diaz Balart as well as former Congressman Lincoln Diaz Balart represents a full trifecta for Mitt and a major leg up in the Cuban American community
CraigS
November 28th, 2011 at 8:13 pm
14. Really? That’s HUGE! Cool.
November 28th, 2011 at 8:13 pm
14.
Awesome news. I love how this campaign is being run. Ignore the day to day crap and stay with the plan.
November 28th, 2011 at 8:16 pm
I love Newts comment that he only spent about an hour a month working with Freddie Mac. That’s about $30,000 per hour and he only listened………for 2 years.
He was also paid $120,000 per year by WSJ for advice and $4.5 million by Murdoch to get Ruperts butt out of a regulatory crack over foreign ownership of his Fox media.
Finally, the Newter racked up $37 million for his health care think tank that took in dues of $200,000 per client for 7 years putting out proposals for health care mandates for anyone with more than $50,000 per year.
What a sleaze bag
CraigS
November 28th, 2011 at 8:16 pm
10
WOW!
He’s done!
… If the story gets legs…
… Which it won’t…
November 28th, 2011 at 8:17 pm
#7 – Agree. It will be interesting to see who draws fire. I think it will be Newt getting heat from Bachmann and Santorum.
November 28th, 2011 at 8:25 pm
19
Mitt is going to get bashed by Newt and the moderators (an unlikely alliance) and Newt is going to get bashed by Mitt and the other candidates.
November 28th, 2011 at 8:30 pm
All of the candidates should have an answer to the immigration questions. And it’s an opportunity for Romney and Gingrich to clarify their positions if necessary.
I just hope there is nothing about the new allegations. That would be improper and sleazy.
November 28th, 2011 at 8:38 pm
IA + SC = FL and the NOMINATION, folks
21.
ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Only ~20% of Florida primary voters saying they disagree with Newt on immigration
1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply »
ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Newt with big lead on 1st night of our FL poll… he’s uniting anti-Mitt vote
1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply
November 28th, 2011 at 8:40 pm
He’s uniting anti-Mitt vote
Sweet words indeed
November 28th, 2011 at 8:43 pm
#23 – I guess we now know why Romney’s rolling out FL endorsements.
November 28th, 2011 at 8:44 pm
Iowa Campaign Mgr Steve Grubbs
Stalking, defaming, libeler accuses Cain. Read it in the NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/us/politics/cain-accused-of-affair-by-ginger-white.html
9 minutes ago Favorite Retweet
November 28th, 2011 at 8:46 pm
9-9-9 the Movie: Only 5 minutes long. Start the popcorn! http://youtu.be/jneGy5tz3Io
November 28th, 2011 at 8:50 pm
24.
Yep. Florida slipping away from Romney. Just as IA & SC have.
Bet Nevada falls, too.
Domino effect!
November 28th, 2011 at 8:54 pm
27.
Are you nuts. Did you not notice that Romney just got 3 of the most coveted endorsement in any primary state in FL tonight?
Romney just moved one step closer to locking down FL today and there are many more endorsements to come.
I hope Newt enjoyed the Union Leader endorsement. That was yesterday.
November 28th, 2011 at 9:00 pm
CR…….isn’t it time to pick up yet another candidate ? Who are you going with now ? I am beginning a lengthy list of Gingrich assessments that you may want to go to school on. When Marianne Gingrich lived on the next street from me in Marietta, Newt had Callista in the Capitol Hill Apartment in DC.
Great moral example for America and terrific first lady who no longer sleeps with married Congressmen
Terrific
CraigS
November 28th, 2011 at 9:07 pm
The course of the western world over the next decade, mired in debt crises, monetization of debt, turmoil in the Middle East as America loses control, etc is just going to be one giant vindication of what Ron Paul’s been saying (and laughed at for) for ages now.
November 28th, 2011 at 9:12 pm
Boomer you are right. Romney keeps locking down endorsements and has his eye on the finish line.
November 28th, 2011 at 9:17 pm
As far as donors, Ron Paul got twice as many donors contributing to his campaign than the next most. Within the military, Ron Paul raised more than all the other Republicans combined.
People want better than the mess of pottage the status quo has sold us on.
November 28th, 2011 at 9:20 pm
MPC-
When I need a gynecologist, Paul is my guy. I’m in the market for someone who has a clue about how to get us out of this mess right now, not someone who has seen what many of us have been saying for years.
November 28th, 2011 at 9:26 pm
Tomorrow will see a bigger day for Mitt Romney then Newt received from the UL in New Hampshire. When Mitt garners 2 Republican Cuban legislators and one previous legislators the Anti-Mitt crowd will go nuts. It is obvious Mitt has learned from his previous mistakes of 2008. Anyway had to get that out.
November 28th, 2011 at 9:31 pm
Bachmann win makes her viable. Perry win makes him competative. Paul win means the entire caucus doesn’t matter.
What an absurd crock. The caucus either matters or it doesn’t matter. As it awards delegates, it matters.
Pathetic.
November 28th, 2011 at 9:40 pm
28.
We will see when the next Florida poll comes out in a few days and Romney is down double digits.
November 28th, 2011 at 10:14 pm
36.
Ya know, it doesn’t really make your point any stronger when you do the bold thing.
I don’t care about polls. I care about whats happening on the ground. Romney is systematically owning the ground game in Iowa, NH and FL and he has the resources to carry this as long as it takes.
Nobody else does.
Those are just the facts.
November 28th, 2011 at 10:19 pm
Best thing that could happen now is for Bachmann to win Iowa, Mitt 2nd, Santorum 3rd, and Newt 4th.
November 28th, 2011 at 10:37 pm
A lot of Republicans think it’s Newt’s cheating on his wives that will bring him down. Others think it is his vast history on flip flopping on issues that will. Still others think it is his history of playing footsie with liberal Democrats, like Nancy Pelosi and Bill Clinton that will do him in.
They’re ALL wrong. What will deep six his campaign is his history of financial corruption……especially his ties with the FMs and his massive lobbying for Medicare Part D. Those combined to destroy the economy.
BTW, In addition to the leaders of Cuban Republicans in South Florida, add the news that Connie Mack, who’s leading in the state for the Senate nomination, and who is beating Senator Nelson in the polls…..and who has endorsed Mitt and been outspoken on his behalf…..just announced his OFFICIAL candidacy for the U.S. Senate.
Florida, looking GOOD.
November 28th, 2011 at 11:16 pm
IA + SC = FL
Gingrich voices support for controversial SC immigration law…says it’s “pretty reasonable”: http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/gingrich-voices-support-for-s-c-immigration-law-20111128#.TtRiB0AZk2A.twitter
November 28th, 2011 at 11:19 pm
Forbes: 9-9-9 is good, but favors American Businesses over Foreign.
November 28th, 2011 at 11:57 pm
#OReilly 2 Newt: “Do u think Mr. Cain is done aftr new accusstion? True 2 form, Newt says NO. “No one is done. Only Obama is done.” #Classy
1 hour ago Favorite Retweet
On Nov. 25th @RasmussenPoll reports #Cain w/ 3pt lead on #Mitt On Nov. 28th we get a new #Cain accusation. They want the #CainTrain stopped!
1 hour ago Favorite Retweet
November 29th, 2011 at 12:11 am
42:
In where? Romney really doesn’t have much to gain from weakening of Cain.
Anyway to thread topic in general. Anyway will be interesting to see if Rick Perry and his PACs will be ethical in their money use, if they will be it will hurt Gingrich. Most of Rick Perry’s money is from big donors, he could be very impressive one-on-one, Mort Zuckerman for example said that his phone discussion with him he was very impressive when it comes to being aware of how to get American business running again, or something like that. Most of Rick Perry’s money came from big donors, who were impressed by him from what they knew before the debates and who also know that Gingrich is not electable. Romney is more like standing on a relatively high floor rather than hitting a ceiling. Rick Perry and his PACs can’t really gain much from attacking him. However he can gain from attacks on Gingrich. So if he is ethical and does what is best for his campaign, and in addition also good for the party and the country, Newt Gingrich is in trouble. I think Perry has still 10 million or so to lift himself up and knock unworthy anti-Romney’s like Gingrich down.
November 29th, 2011 at 12:20 am
Also in the end when the all baggage and character flaws will be whipped out and laid on the table, I think Perry would make stronger general election candidate than Gingrich. Not strong but stronger than Gingrich.
November 29th, 2011 at 7:22 am
#44 – That was what everyone thought until Rick Perry debated. I would bet Obama would agree to 10 debates with Perry.