Critical Insights Maine 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 41%
• Mitt Romney 40%

• Barack Obama 46%
• Rick Perry 32%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Barack Obama

• Favorable 43%
• Unfavorable 45%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling the economy?

• Approve 36%
• Disapprove 54%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling the taxes?

• Approve 39%
• Disapprove 49%

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 18-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 33% Democrat; 31% Republican; 31% Independent.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

Rasmussen Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tommy Thompson (R) 49%
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 42%
• Some other candidate 4%
• Undecided 6%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 26, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

PPP (D) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tommy Thompson (R) 46% {50%} [45%]
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 44% {42%} [44%]

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 44% {40%} [46%]
• Mark Neumann (R) 43% {44%} [41%]

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 44% [48%]
• Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 40% [37%]

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 44%
• Frank Lasee (R) 37%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tommy Thompson 42% {44%} [42%] / 42% {42%} [42%] {0%}
• Tammy Baldwin 28% {26%} [27%] / 30% {28%} [25%] {-2%}
• Mark Neumann 23% {25%} [27%] / 30% {27%} [26%] {-7%}
• Jeff Fitzgerald 20% [19%] / 33% [34%] {-13%}
• Frank Lasee 6% / 19% {-13%}

Survey of 1,170 Wisconsin voters was conducted October 20-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 37% {37%} [37%] (33%) Democrat; 31% {34%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 32% {29%} [31%] (35%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% {29%} [30%] (31%) Moderate; 25% {21%} [23%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 19% {22%} [20%] (21%) Somewhat liberal; 17% {17%} [17%] (18%) Very conservative; 10% {11%} [10%] (7%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 12-14, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

As a Johnson for President campaign staffer, I can confirm that Gov. Johnson will be filing for the New Hampshire primary in person, tomorrow morning.  Contrary to what some news sources are saying, the deadline is not until tomorrow afternoon.  Poor reporting, unfortunately, snowballed out of control on this one.

Cain began to go on the offensive at a Tea Party event in Corpus Christi. Some great lines in here including his thought on attacks from the other candidates.

I don’t know how many of you saw that last debate. I didn’t realize that that bullseye on my back was that big. They came after me like I had talked about their momma!

MSNBC is reporting that Gary Johnson is likely not going to make the dealine to file for President in New Hampshire. The deadline was 4:30 PM today. Here’s an excerpt from the article:

Longshot presidential candidate Gary Johnson, a former two-term governor of New Mexico, likely will not be on the ballot for the New Hampshire Republican primary, all but ending any chance he could have had at the nomination.

Despite a significant amount of time spent in the state, including biking hundreds of miles with his fiancée and son to draw attention to his campaign — and even renting a home in the state, the staunch libertarian missed the deadline to file by mail or representative, which was today at 4:30 pm ET. Johnson is campaigning in Arizona through the weekend and, according to a spokesman, has no plans to be in New Hampshire tomorrow.

The missed deadline comes as a surprise not just to political watchers, but also the Johnson campaign itself.

“The last I heard it was going to be filed today by a representative,” said Joe Hunter, Johnson’s communications director, sounding shocked, in a telephone interview when told the news by NBC. Asked if Johnson will fly to New Hampshire tomorrow, the final day of the filing period, Hunter said no.

Johnson missing the deadline is also surprising, considering he has already filed for the South Carolina primary, with its $35,000 fee, NBC’s Ali Weinberg reports. New Hampshire’s is just $1,000.

This isn’t the first embarrassing misstep by the Johnson campaign in the Granite State. On his most recent campaign swing here, he scheduled a town hall in Concord. But no one except members of the media showed. His campaign blamed that on planned robo-calls not being executed in time.

EDIT: Our own Josiah Schmidt confirms that Johnson will be on the ballot in New Hampshire, so it appears MSNBC did not get their facts straight about a Republican. Does that surprise anyone?

PPP (D) Nevada 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 46% {47%} [43%] (47%)
• Mitt Romney 46% {46%} [46%] (46%)

• Barack Obama 49% [46%] (51%)
• Newt Gingrich 46% [42%] (40%)

• Barack Obama 49% {48%}
• Herman Cain 46% {39%}

• Barack Obama 47%
• Ron Paul 43%

• Barack Obama 49% {50%}
• Michele Bachmann 41% {40%}

• Barack Obama 51% {49%}
• Rick Perry 41% {40%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 45% {38%} [43%] (47%) / 44% {43%} [43%] (37%) {+1%}
• Herman Cain 41% {24%} / 44% {33%} {-3%}
• Newt Gingrich 38% [33%] (35%) / 52% [53%] (51%) {-14%}
• Ron Paul 34% / 51% {-17%}
• Michele Bachmann 27% {30%} / 59% {51%} {-32%}
• Rick Perry 18% {24%} / 67% {36%} {-49%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 44% {47%} [45%] (50%)
• Disapprove 53% {50%} [52%] (46%)

Survey of 500 Nevada voters was conducted October 20-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 43% {43%} [45%] (45%) Democrat; 38% {38%} [35%] (39%) Republican; 19% {19%} [20%] (16%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 29% {29%} [28%] Moderate; 25% {25%} [25%] Somewhat conservative; 18% {18%} [19%] Somewhat liberal; 17% {17%} [18%] Very conservative; 12% {11%} [10%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted July 28-31, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 21-24, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

A very nice “get” for Bachmann:

Iowa Republican strategist Eric Woolson, formerly of Tim Pawlenty’s presidential campaign, was named Thursday as Michele Bachmann’s state campaign manager.

Woolson takes over at a critical time for the Minnesota Republican, who has seen her entire New Hampshire staff quit in recent days as she doubles down on her native Iowa, where she now has a full-time professional staff of 10.

Woolson also brings a needed dose of credibility, having managed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s winning Iowa caucus campaign in 2008. He did so working off a similar playbook: relying on a wave of evangelical fervor to beat Mitt Romney, who was the odds-on favorite at that point in the 2008 GOP nomination.

Woolson has been doing Iowa press for Bachmann since September. Now he will be positioned to give some added strategic heft to a campaign that has been floundering since she won the Iowa straw poll in Ames – which knocked Pawlenty out of the race.

Woolson also brings valuable connections to her campaign, having worked for George W. Bush’s presidential campaign, as well as for Sioux City Republican Bob Vander Plaats’ gubernatorial campaign, Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ congressional campaign, and U.S. Sen. Charles Grassley’s re-election campaign. He was later press secretary for Republican Gov. Terry Branstad’s first administration.

Read the full story here.

From the official release:

Boston, MA – Mitt Romney today announced the support of elected officials and leaders in Delaware. Romney for President also submitted the signatures and paperwork required to appear on the Delaware Republican primary ballot.

“I am happy to have the support of so many in Delaware,” said Mitt Romney. “In order to win in November 2012, I will need their help as I spread my pro-growth message and reach out to voters in Delaware and across the country.”

Announcing his support, House Republican Leader Greg Lavelle said, “After three years of failed attempts to restart our economy, it is clear that the liberal policies of President Obama are not working. We need a president who has displayed conservative leadership and understands how our economy actually functions. Mitt Romney displayed this leadership as both a governor and successful businessman. With his economic know-how, we will be able to get our economy working again.”

“Mitt Romney has emerged as the only candidate with the experience and plan to take on President Obama,” said RNC National Committeeman Laird Stabler. “He is a conservative businessman who was able to use those principles as governor to cut taxes and spending. I look forward to working with these other leaders from Delaware to help Mitt Romney defeat President Obama and reverse the economic stagnation of the last three years.”

Delaware Elected Officials And Leaders Endorsing Mitt Romney:

· House Republican Leader Greg Lavelle

· State Senator Liane Sorenson

· Dale Wolf; Former Governor and Lieutenant Governor

· Janet Rzewnicki; Former State Treasurer

· Bob Weiner; New Castle County Councilman

· Laird Stabler; RNC National Committeeman

· Everett Moore; Former Delaware Republican Party Chairman

· Cathy Murray; Former Delaware Republican Party Vice Chairwoman

· Steve Engebretson; Newark Region Republican Chairman

· Hans Reigle; Kent County Republican Chairman

· John Rollins; New Castle County Republican Chairman

· Michael Fleming; Former New Castle County Republican Chairman

· Rick Carroll; Former Wilmington Region Republican Chairman

· Ted Cover; Wilmington Region Republican Vice Chairman

· Jerry Martin; Former Brandywine Region Republican Chairman

· Dave Burris; Former Sussex County Republican Chairman

· Dave Jones; Former Newark Region Republican Chairman

· Ron Sams; Former Sussex County Republican Chairman

· Jim Ursomarso; Former Candidate for Lieutenant Governor and Wilmington City Republican Chairman

· Michele Rollins; Former Congressional Candidate

· Judy Travis; Former Candidate for State Senate

· Louis Saindon; Former Candidate for State Representative

· Josh Hoveln; University of Delaware College Republican Vice Chairman

· Tom Schrandt

Time Magazine 2012 “What If ?” Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton 55%
• Mitt Romney 38%

• Hillary Clinton 58%
• Rick Perry 32%

• Hillary Clinton 56%
• Herman Cain 34%

National poll conducted for TIME on Oct. 9 and 10 among likely voters. The same poll found that President Obama would edge Romney by just 46% to 43%, Perry by 50% to 38% and Cain by 49% to 37% among likely voters.

Rasmussen New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 41% (39%)
• Herman Cain 17% (4%)
• Ron Paul 11% (13%)
• Newt Gingrich 8% (4%)
• Jon Huntsman 7% (7%)
• Rick Perry 4% (18%)
• Michele Bachmann  3% (5%)
• Rick Santorum 1% (2%)
• Some other candidate 2% (3%)
• Undecided 5% (4%)

Survey of 816 likely Republican primary voters was conducted October 25, 2011. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 21, 2011 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

The new Des Moines Register poll is set to be released this Saturday at 7:00 pm central time.

That is all.

From the official release:

“I am proud to have Congressman Smith’s support,” said Mitt Romney. “On issues that I have focused on such as border security and job creation, Lamar has been at the forefront in the Congress. I look forward to working closely with Lamar both during my campaign and in the effort to fix our struggling economy.”

Congressman Lamar Smith said, “Like many Americans, I believe the United States urgently needs to replace Barack Obama as president with a proven leader who will create jobs, reduce the nation’s debt and embrace traditional values. The Republican Party is fortunate to have many candidates who are well-qualified to do just that. Last May– three months before Governor Rick Perry announced his candidacy – I committed to supporting Mitt Romney. I support Mitt Romney because I believe that he has the specific skillset needed to turn around the economy: he has a conservative track record as a successful businessman and as a governor who created jobs, cut taxes, and kept spending low.”

Hat-Tip: The Argo Journal

PPP (D) Nevada 2012 Senate Poll

• Dean Heller (R) 45% {46%} [47%] (51%)
• Shelley Berkley (D) 45% {43%} [43%] (38%)

Among Democrats

• Shelley Berkley (D) 82% {75%} [76%] (64%)
• Dean Heller (R) 14% {11%} [13%] (20%)

Among Republicans

• Dean Heller (R) 83% {86%} [86%] (85%)
• Shelley Berkley (D) 8% {6%} [8%] (12%)

Among Independents

• Dean Heller (R) 39% {44%} [56%] (56%)
• Shelley Berkley (D) 37% {41%} [29%] (28%)

(more…)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c0YO1gfTTg[/youtube]

Note: These stickers aren’t in any way sanctioned by the Cain campaign.

Fox News 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Herman Cain 24% [17%] (6%) {9%} [9%]
• Mitt Romney 20% [23%] (22%) {26%} [26%]
• Newt Gingrich 12% [11%] (3%) {9%} [9%]
• Rick Perry 10% [19%] (29%)
• Ron Paul 9% [6%] (8%) {10%} [10%]
• Rick Santorum 3% [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%]
• Michele Bachmann 3% [3%] (8%) {13%} [15%]
• Jon Huntsman 0% [4%] (1%) {2%} [2%]
• Gary Johnson 0% [0%] (0%) {1%} [1%]
• Fred Karger 0% [0%] {0%} [0%]
• Buddy Roemer 0% [0%] (1%)
• Too soon to say 11% [5%] (6%) {8%} [7%]
• Don’t know 5% [7%] (10%) {9%} [13%]

Survey of 328 Republican primary voters was conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) October 23-25, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 25-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 29-31, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 7-9, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 17-19, 2011 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

If I were Herman Cain, I would stop answering any question that has the word “abortion” in it:

Q. Part of your 2004 Senate campaign focused on your stance against abortion, something you’ve struggled in recent days to articulate after an interview with Piers Morgan. What did you need to clarify in that interview?

A. I am pro-life from conception. Abortions, no exceptions. That has been my official stand from the beginning. What Piers Morgan was trying to do was to pigeonhole me on, “Well, what if this was your granddaughter?” You know what? If it’s my granddaughter? Yes, this is my official position, and it’s always been that. If it’s my granddaughter? I used the word “choice.” And that’s where they jumped all over it. A family will make that choice. I was not talking about the whole big issue.

So the Des Moines Register, where this question and answer appeared, gave Herman Cain an empty slate as a chance to “clarify” his abortion position. And his response was just as incoherent and inconsistent as ever. Let’s review, shall we?

To John Stossel, Cain said, “I’m pro-life from conception, yes,” but followed that up with, “I don’t think government should make that decision.” Cain further said, “That’s her choice. That is not government’s choice.” In a followup question, Cain then declared, “No, abortion should not be legal,” leaving the other people at the table literally with their mouths hanging open.

To Piers Morgan, Cain said, “Abortion, under no circumstances,” but clarified: “It ultimately gets down to a choice that that family or that mother has to make. Not government, not some politician, not a bureaucrat…. Whatever they decide, they decide. The government shouldn’t be trying to tell people everything to do, especially when it comes to social decisions they need to make.”

On FOX News, he tried to explain himself: “I am pro-life from conception and I don’t believe in abortion… I do not believe abortion should be legal in this country… If a family made a decision to break the law, that’s that family’s decision.”

That led to another round of bad press, and so Cain went on Fox and Friends where he answered the question, “Should abortion be a part of the political discussion?” by saying, “No, it should not, quite frankly.”

Which leads us to the Des Moines Register piece today, quoted above. Herman Cain is firmly pro-life. He thinks abortion should be illegal. Unless someone wants to have an abortion – then it’s a choice they can make. Or something like that.

Romney leads in all four early states polled by CNN/Time/ORC:

CNN/Time/ORC 2012 Florida GOP Nomination

• Romney 30%
• Cain 18%
• Gingrich 9%
• Perry 9%
• Paul 6%
• Bachmann 4%
• Huntsman 1%
• Santorum 1%
• Someone else (vol.) 1%
• None/ No one (vol.) 7%
• No opinion 14%

Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

• Definitely support 28%
• Might change mind 50%
• Other (vol.) *
• No opinion 22%

CNN/Time/ORC 2012 Iowa GOP Nomination

• Romney 24%
• Cain 21%
• Paul 12%
• Gingrich 10%
• Perry 10%
• Bachmann 6%
• Santorum 2%
• Huntsman 1%
• Someone else (vol.) *
• None/ No one (vol.) 3%
• No opinion 11%

Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

• Definitely support 23%
• Might change mind 62%
• Other (vol.) *
• No opinion 15%

CNN/Time/ORC 2012 New Hampshire GOP Nomination

• Romney 40%
• Cain 13%
• Paul 12%
• Huntsman 6%
• Gingrich 5%
• Perry 4%
• Bachmann 2%
• Santorum 1%
• Someone else (vol.) *
• None/ No one (vol.) 5%
• No opinion 14%

Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

• Definitely support 32%
• Might change mind 48%
• Other (vol.) *
• No opinion 19%

CNN/Time/ORC 2012 South Carolina GOP Nomination

• Romney 25%
• Cain 23%
• Paul 12%
• Perry 11%
• Gingrich 8%
• Bachmann 4%
• Huntsman 1%
• Santorum 1%
• Someone else (vol.) *
• None/ No one (vol.) 5%
• No opinion 10%

Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

• Definitely support 30%
• Might change mind 56%
• Other (vol.) *
• No opinion 14%

See below the fold for methodology:
(more…)

BRC Rocky Mountain Arizona 2012 Presidential Survey

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Herman Cain 25%
• Mitt Romney 24%
• Rick Perry 10%
• Undecided 20%

Note: All other candidates are in single digits. Among GOP-leaning independent voters, Cain and Romney are tied at 15%, with Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 14% and everyone else is in single digits; and 28% are undecided.

GENERAL ELECTION

• Barack Obama 45%
• Mitt Romney 40%

• Barack Obama 44%
• Rick Perry 38%

• Barack Obama 45%
• Herman Cain 38%

Survey of 581 registered voters, including a subsample of registered Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, was conducted October 13-14, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points among all registered voters.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

Here’s an interesting look at J.D. Gordon and the rest of Herman Cain’s new foreign policy advisors (from Foreign Affairs):

n August, consultant and former Navy officer J.D. Gordon was ready to launch a new foreign policy and national security think tank called the Center for Security and Diplomacy…and then he got a call from Herman Cain.

“We were a few days away from making CSD’s website public. Now most of the think thank is being absorbed by the Cain campaign,” Gordon told The Cable in an interview. The Cain team saw Gordon on one of his many Fox News appearances, where he served as an expert commentator. He joined the campaign on Sept. 1 as the vice president for communications and senior advisor for foreign policy and national security.

Now, about two months into his time with Cain, Gordon is leading the expansion of the campaign’s national security infrastructure, drawing heavily from the think tank he had been developing before Cain brought him on.

Gordon, who served 20 years on active duty in the Navy, worked at the Pentagon from 2005 to 2009 in the public affairs section of the Office of the Secretary of Defense under Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates. For four years he was, among other things, the Pentagon’s lead spokesman on detainee issues and led media tours to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Since leaving government, he has been running a consulting firm with his former business partner Lee Cohen, a former staffer for House Foreign Affairs Committee chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL).

Now, Gordon is tapping many of the people who were involved in his think tank and consulting firm to support his candidate, who is admittedly not a foreign policy expert — but says he is reading up on the issues now.

“The central tenets of the Center for Security and Diplomacy were restoring U.S. leadership, maintaining a strong military and getting tough on terrorism,” Gordon said. “That matches exactly with Herman Cain’s views on foreign policy. His overarching philosophy is an extension of the Reagan doctrine: peace through strength and clarity.”

Several of the people who have been involved in CSD have already joined the Cain campaign.

Be sure to read the entire piece here.

Hat-Tip: The Argo Journal

There are thirteen debates remaining in this primary season before we get to Super Tuesday on March 6 — and six debates between now and the Iowa caucuses. Last night on O’Reilly, Perry made it clear that he thought it was “a mistake” to take part in some of the debates thus far (no kidding, Rick?), but this morning the campaign has indicated they may not make that “mistake” again in the future.

Perry spokesman Mark Miner said told Politico that Perry will attend the next debate on the calendar, a Michigan affair on November 9 — but after that, it is a “question mark” as to whether or not Perry will compete in any others.

The Perry campaign is using the excuse that there is not enough time left to campaign if he attends the debates — which, at some level, is a fair assessment. There are way too many debates this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few other candidates duck out of a handful of the remaining debates. However, from any objective stance there is a more obvious reason Perry doesn’t want to debate any more. And if he doesn’t, I think he’ll find out that skipping the debates will be just as big of a mistake as going to them.

Hat-Tip: The Argo Journal

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

• Mitt Romney 44% {42%} [41%] (44%) {41%} [43%] (39%) {38%} [43%] {40%} [44%] (44%)
• Barack Obama 42% {43%} [43%] (42%) {44%} [40%] (43%) {46%} [42%] {45%} [42%] (44%)

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 24-25, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 16-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 8-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 28-29, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the polls conducted August 17-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the polls conducted between July 14-15, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 3-4, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 24, 2009 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

From my inbox:

“In an effort to prop up his sinking campaign, Rick Perry will keep trying to deflect attention away from his liberal policy on in-state tuition for illegal immigrants and his advocacy for turning Social Security over to the states. Today’s campaign ad doesn’t tell the whole story, failing to mention that unemployment in Texas has doubled on Perry’s watch and more than a million workers in his state are out of a job. Mitt Romney is a conservative businessman who is focused on getting Americans back to work and reviving this economy.” –Gail Gitcho, Romney Communications Director

This morning, the Romney campaign unveiled the endorsement of Representative Mark Amodei of Nevada. Amodei is one of two Republican representatives from Nevada — the other, Joe Heck, has already endorsed Romney as well, as has Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki.

Governor Sandoval endorsed Rick Perry earlier in September before Perry’s polling meltdown; that leaves just one major Republican endorsement remaining in the Silver State: newly minted Senator Dean Heller.

Quinnipiac University Ohio Republican Primary

• Cain – 28% (7)
• Romney – 23% (24)
• Paul – 8% (6)
• Gingrich – 7% (4)
• Bachmann – 4% (3)
• Perry – 4% (20)
• Huntsman – 2% (1)
• Santorum – 1% (4)
• Undecided – 18% (21)

Obama’s Job Approval: 43/51

General Election Match-ups

• Obama – 45%
• Romney – 41%

• Obama – 47%
• Cain – 39%

• Obama – 47%
• Perry – 36%

Survey of 542 registered Republicans (+/-4.2%) and 1,668 registered voters (+/-2.4%) was conducted October 17-23. Numbers from the September poll are in parentheses.

Yesterday as he campaigned in Ohio, Romney said “Can’t win the White House without winning Ohio” — and he is more or less literally correct: one has to go back to 1960 before you find a candidate who was able to put together a winning coalition that did not include the Buckeye State. Ohio may very well be the state the 2012 election hinges on (along with Virginia). And these general election match-ups are not encouraging at this time. Despite having a massively underwater approval rating, Obama still bests any GOP challenger. The good news is that he is under 50%, if you’re looking for the silver lining. Given these kinds of numbers, is it any wonder that Romney hedged on supporting the massively unpopular SB5 yesterday (which, according to the Quinnipiac poll released yesterday, is only supported by Republicans — and has essentially zero support among independents or Democrats)?