WPRI Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Survey
- Barack Obama 46%
- Mitt Romney 35%
- Neither 7%
- Don’t know 13%
- Barack Obama 48%
- Rick Perry 30%
- Neither 10%
- Don’t know 12%
- Barack Obama 50%
- Herman Cain 31%
- Neither 8%
- Don’t know 11%
Overall, do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
- Strongly approve 23%
- Somewhat approve 31%
- Somewhat disapprove 14%
- Strongly disapprove 28%
Survey of 605 adults, 484 of whom are registered to vote, was conducted October 23-26, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 29% Democrat; 23% Republican; 33% Independent; 13% Other/No preference. Click here to view crosstabs.
-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:32 pm
That’s more like it.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:36 pm
I wonder why the big difference between the two polls. Ras is usually pretty accurate.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:44 pm
So, where exactly did Ras get his numbers from?
Those numbers just seemed so far out of whack for no apparent reason.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:44 pm
Lol. This poll discredits the organization that conducted it.
They should wipe this poll off their site and delete their hard drives, and pretend this horrible poll never happened.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:46 pm
Obama’s favorite song:
On, Wisconsin! On, Wisconsin!
Grand old Badger State!
We, your liberal sons and daughters,
Hail thee, good and great.
On, Wisconsin! On, Wisconsin!
Champion of the left.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:47 pm
1
You celebrate when Romney goes from mid single digits to double digits behind Obama?
October 31st, 2011 at 7:48 pm
That’s three WI polls showing three very different results.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:49 pm
3
THESE WPRI numbers seem to be the outliers.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:50 pm
Craig,
Two Intrade markets for thee :
Perry to win a at least 1 primary or Caucus
Cain to win at least 1 primary or Caucus
October 31st, 2011 at 7:51 pm
6,
I assume you are Craig for Losers there but the point is in every single general election poll done with both Perry and Romney, we have seen Mitt doing better against Obama than Ricky. The Rasmussen poll was an anomaly. This one is probably oversampling Dems but Mitt is once again outperforming the field against Obama.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:51 pm
Katey dear,
Take Cain and thank me after
IA + SC = Nomination
October 31st, 2011 at 7:51 pm
6, I’m not celebrating. I’m acknowledging that this poll seems much more accurate than the other. I would be fascinated to know why the change was so huge between the two.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:53 pm
10
Only morons and geeks like you celebrate a double digit Romney deficit behind Obama.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:54 pm
11, did you see the last Iowa poll? Cain is far from in the clear in Iowa. It’s still a couple months away.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:56 pm
I don’t believe this poll, not for a second. PPP is the most accurate.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:58 pm
I’d never trust a public radio poll. Here in MN they are very, very biased. Had Dayton up big and he barely held on in 10.
October 31st, 2011 at 8:07 pm
Guys- How many times do I have to tell you… both the primary and general elections in the Badger state will be way different than any other elections. No amount of polling will be accurate.
This is the same state that cast 1.5 million votes for a state Supreme Court election. Non candidate spending was 3,380,000 dollars.
The primary elections will feature the following: Scott Walker Recall election*, Republican Senate Primary, Democratic Senate Primary. That is in addition to any US House of Reps. primaries and state races that have primaries.
The general election will feature Presidential, US Senate, US House, and State Senate/Assembly races. It will be a knockout affair in Wisconsin, one that has never been seen here before.
October 31st, 2011 at 8:08 pm
* There is a possibility that this election falls on a different date, but I dont see it happening.
October 31st, 2011 at 8:13 pm
IOWA + SOUTH CAROLINA = CAIN NOMINATION
Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Cain Romney Perry
RCP Average 10/12 – 10/26 — 27.0 22.4 7.2
CAIN +4.6
*******
South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Cain Romney Perry
RCP Average 10/11 – 10/25 — 28.7 23.0 11.0
CAIN +5.7
October 31st, 2011 at 8:19 pm
19, Intrade disagrees with you, Craig. They don’t think Cain will last. Just remember, before you say these numbers are baseless, that you used to quote Intrade to us all the time.
October 31st, 2011 at 8:29 pm
Someone said something Re Cain :
The fact it got out that early suggests there’s MORE to come
October 31st, 2011 at 8:30 pm
My money is on Romney, Craig
I might bet on Obama winning the GE afterwards
October 31st, 2011 at 8:53 pm
Let’s do some math.
PPP (which leans left but has been pretty accurate recently) has Obama’s approval in Wisconsin at 44% approve, 51% disapprove. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/obama-struggling-in-wisconsin.html
A recent WPRI poll had Obama’s approval at 44% approve and 42% disapprove. So WPRI seems to understate those who oppose Obama by 9 points.
If you adjust for the 9% error in WPRI’s methodology, you get:
Obama 46, Romney 44
Obama 48, Perry 38
Obama 50, Cain 40
I live in Wisconsin and those sound right about right to me.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:38 pm
Wisconsin is a tease. I lived there for 30+ years. Even many socially conservatives are union folks who see Republicans as anti-worker. That’s just purely anecdotal, from my experiences there, so take it FWIW. But I think Obama takes WI fairly easily.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:39 pm
As for why the Rasmussen poll is so screwed up, it just is. In other words, you get an occasional outlier in polling even when everything is done right. It works out to about 1 in 15 polls, but it happens.
As for why THIS one is so screwed up, let me count the ways:
1. It’s an adults poll, which always skews a poll heavily to the Left.
2. It injects the category of ‘neither’, which doesn’t match actual ballots.
3. It undersamples Republicans at 23%….even in Wisconsin, Republicans make up more than 23% of the electorate.
October 31st, 2011 at 11:12 pm
This poll is an outlier and worthless.
Regardless, the fact that the incumbent Democrat President is at 46% in a reliably Democrat state in a slanted poll should hardly be something for Obama supporters to celebrate.
We don’t need to win Wisconsin, the last Republican to have won it was Reagan. Democrats, however, lose the White House if they lose Wisconsin.
November 1st, 2011 at 6:33 am
Funny. It’s just a stupid poll. None of them have mattered for months now. They are only good for trends. Well, this would appear to be great for Perry and bad for Cain and Romney, but it’s only one data point. We’ll see what other polls show.
Plus, who gives a crap about this state? Iowa, NH, SC, FL, MI, AZ, NV… the nomination may be all locked up by that point!
November 1st, 2011 at 8:25 am
WI, for some reason, must be a very hard state to poll. I’ve seen several head scratchers come from there over the past few years.
November 1st, 2011 at 8:27 am
Part of what skews this poll, though, is the moronic inclusion of unregistered voters. I understand doing approval polls among “adults,” to gauge the country as a whole, but I don’t understand polling non-registered adults in an election poll. Shoot, only about 2/3 of the registered voters are going to bother to vote.