I had this piece prepped to release this morning after the Des Moines Register poll was released Saturday night, confirming my suspicions that the Cain Train was losing steam. Now, with the allegations of sexual harassment coming to light, it almost seems like a moot point – but I want to post it anyway. If Cain’s campaign goes down in flames now – which it appears to have the likelihood of doing – many folks will point (rightfully) to the harassment claims as the reason. But Cain has been in decline for a couple weeks already. This current scandal may just be the final (large) straw that broke the Camel Smoker’s back.
The air is coming out of the Herman Cain balloon. Maybe not nationally yet, but in the earliest state where voters pay attention before anybody else, he is beginning to deflate. You can see it when you compare the latest batch of polls from Iowa in chronological order. The results illustrate the decline of one of the more enigmatic campaigns in recent memory.
The earliest poll of the latest batch is also the longest running: the University of Iowa poll conducted the 12th through the 19th. It showed Cain with his largest lead, at +10.
The next two polls give us some insight into what happened during that week of polling, however. An Insider Advantage poll conducted just on the 16th showed Cain with a lead of 8 points. And a Rasmussen poll done three days later showed a Cain lead of 7 points. Clearly, Cain’s lead was the largest at the beginning of the University of Iowa poll and continued to decline as the week (and the gaffes) continued.
Then came the Des Moines Register poll on Saturday, showing Cain’s lead down to just 1 point. (CNN even had a poll done in an overlapping period with the DMR poll that showed Cain falling into second place, although I’d trust the DMR results long before the CNN ones.) If we were to graph Cain’s recent results in Iowa, it would look like this:
As you can see, the Cain balloon is headed for the ground. And it’s all self-inflicted wounds, too – the decline comes out of Cain’s numbers, as seen in this second graph that charts the percentage of the vote Cain receives against that decline in his lead:
No other campaign – including second-place Romney’s – is making any significant movement over this period. This indicates that the folks in Iowa don’t know who they want to vote for, they’re just increasingly recognizing that it’s not Herman Cain.
Addendum for Monday morning: I’ve altered the title of this post to reflect the current reality facing the Cain campaign. What was a slow leak out of the Cain balloon may very well become a crash-and-burn type scenario instead. These allegations of sexual harassment are bad; however, what is making the situation exponentially worse is how the Cain campaign is handling them. They are mishandling (to put it lightly) this issue at the same level they mishandled the abortion flap. The difference, of course, is that allegations of harassment truly are a campaign killer.
UPDATE: Herman Cain is scheduled to give an interview to Fox and Friends at 11:20 am Eastern time this morning, his first interview since the scandal broke last night. It will be interesting to see how he handles the situation. Hopefully it’s better than his spokesman handled it on Geraldo last night.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:02 am
could there be a jumping out of the race announcement soon?
October 31st, 2011 at 10:04 am
Rick Perry is bought and paid for by the bankers it looks like. Bank of America had one of their clowns caught on video telling Perry they will take care of him.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:08 am
2 – another reason to short BoA : they’re consistently betting on the wrong horses.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:08 am
Using only four points of data from mostly different sources to extrapolate is pretty weak. Worse, you use coupled data (Margin of Lead is based on the data of top two), and yet don’t include the data for the second place contender. These polls also have a margin of error from 3-5%, and the actual “change” in voting percentage since the October 16th poll has been well within that margin. What is just as if not more likely is that the original poll was an outlier, and the rest of the time his percentage of the vote has held steady within the margin. That said, the whole sexual harassment thing could go any which way.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:12 am
Isn’t Bank of America getting another taxpayer bailout basically by our govt allowing them to throw a bunch of their worthless mortgages back on the taxpayers.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:18 am
Is Perry bought and paid for by bankers, more so than Romney?
October 31st, 2011 at 10:19 am
Matt C,
Hopefully Cain, for his sake, uses Watchinitall’s talking points in this Fox News Interview
REPOST:
1. I’m a conservative, and conservatives expect the press to watchdog government and politicians.
2. I’m no exception to that rule.
3. I was not guilty of the allegations made, and the handling of settlements was rightly out of my hands.
4. I don’t expect everyone to love this explanation. I can’t add to it, that’s all there is.
5. I expect fair minded voters to weigh the evidence and support who they, in their wisdom, feel would be the best person for the job of President.
6. I am running for president of the United States, and I believe I’m the best person to turn things around and be the chief executive of to the country
October 31st, 2011 at 10:20 am
5…Romney is so rich he can’t be bought. I wouldn’t sweat over it.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:20 am
is it time for bachmann to announce dropping out of the race she’s going nowhere ?
October 31st, 2011 at 10:31 am
Cain did pretty good there…however he did say he was unaware of the settlements. If it turns out that Cain was aware of the settlements in his name the he is done.
I find it odd that Cain would not have known about the settlements.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:34 am
Sooo the FOTM batton is set to be passed to…Gingrich?
Returned to Perry or Bachman??
Yet no gain from Romney?
I’m beginning to wonder if a majority of Republican voters have a pathological aversion to Romney. Party is starting to look hellbent on pissing away a shot to nominate the one candidate that doesnt give the independents and moderate dems the heebyjeebies.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:38 am
Cain overexposed himself appearing anywhere and everywhere after his sudden burst of popularity coming out of the Florida Straw Poll. He was seemingly on TV repeating the same lines and phrases on every channel. The problem was that he wasn’t ready for the questions and scrutiny; not every question posed could be answered with 9-9-9.
Cain should have limited his exposure and spent more time preparing for the questions so that he didn’t come across as a one-trick-pony.
The current scandal didn’t cause his fall, an undisciplined campaign and candidate caused his decline.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:42 am
#11 pee-jay,
Gingrich isn’t conservative enough and clean enough morally for the teavangelicals. Maybe they go to Santorum now.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:47 am
CiEye,
Gingrich will always have problem with the Morally quotion of your statement but not the Conservative part.
Gingrich is doing very well among the EVANS right now and has been a 2nd favorite of the Cain supporters for some time now according to the crosstabs.
Gingrich is going up after this…..if he plays it right and attacks the press.
October 31st, 2011 at 10:51 am
I HOPE BACHMANN Is not standing there at the Tampa convention cause i could see a bad election night thats all i will say !
October 31st, 2011 at 10:55 am
Smack,
We’ll see. I put Gingrich in the camp with Romney and Huntsman. I think all three are more pragmatic, moderate and connected to the establishment.
The Teavangelicals I consider to be idealogues. They prize purity above all else and the more outside of the normal realm of politics the better. Newt is the ultimate Washington insider.
October 31st, 2011 at 11:02 am
16! What a great word. That totally sums up who they are.
Teavangelicals.
October 31st, 2011 at 11:47 am
I was starting to wonder the same thing looking at polling numbers last week. This confirms it. Cain’s numbers are falling. I wonder who will benefit. Still 2 months to primary season. Too early to call it.
October 31st, 2011 at 1:12 pm
“I’m beginning to wonder if a majority of Republican voters have a pathological aversion to Romney.
Bingo. Now, why is it so hard for Rombots to see? So many in the GOP (myself included) just want somebody other than Romney…then you have the Paulbots who will NOT vote for Romney under any circumstances.
Either way….we lose w/ Romney. (That does NOT mean I’m saying we will win with (insert candidate here)!
October 31st, 2011 at 2:31 pm
Reminds me of when Cain pulled the race card on Perry about the rock 30 years ago at a camp his family rented. The following day Cain said he accepted Perry’s explanation, but the damage was done …. so wrong on so many levels, especially because Perry has the best record of any TX Gov for minority placements (black/hispanic), even a TX Supreme court judge! Cain knew EXACTLY what kind of damage it would create for Perry. Karma is great!
Wonder how it feels now to be on the receiving in from the liberals? Glad Perry is showing class staying out of this!
October 31st, 2011 at 2:37 pm
Cain was in this to promote his image for his “Motivational Speaker” business and to sell books. His own campaign used funds to purchase thousands, and he is in Washington DC giving speeches instead of campaigning in any of the early election states. He never planned to get far enough to get vetted, but he is a multi-millionaire personally and was helped greatly by his exposure in the debates.
THIS IS NOT WHO WE WANT RUNNING THIS COUNTRY!
October 31st, 2011 at 2:43 pm
I want a conservative. Perry has the 2nd largest amount of money in his campaign coffers, but has been fiscally conservative using it (like he governs Texas). His tax return show he made around $150,000 between his and his wife’s (Anita) earnings and they gave generously to charities. He is not in this to get rich, but serving his country (Air Force Captain for 5 yrs).
I know this sounds like a cliche, but Perry does seem to “walk the walk” and I hope he gets the nomination. Obama can throw dirt at him, but he can’t beat Perry’s record. It is the best! Romney will get creamed because he is not a conservative and too many flip-flops on core issues.
October 31st, 2011 at 2:55 pm
22. Back to the flip flop? The only real flip was abortion and it’s been explained and he’s been consistent ever since.
Every other claim of flipping that I’ve seen has been a misrepresentation.
Got specifics to go with your fluffy slam?
October 31st, 2011 at 3:57 pm
John2, Wall Street gave its most financial contributions to Obama in 2008, but by far the biggest support now goes to Mitt Romney this year. It is a fact! Google for the official government site for political contributions. They are his largest contributors!
Keith Price, Some of Romney flip-flops:
climate change
hiring illegal immigrants
gay marriage
healthcare
ethanol policy
October 31st, 2011 at 4:02 pm
24. Again? OK…
Climate change
This is such a reach I’m almost embarrassed for those who keep saying it. Romney has been very consistent, here.
In answering a question, he said be believes the earth is warming and that man CONTRIBUTES, but he doesn’t now how much. He immediately followed with that it is wrong to saddle US businesses with regulations and fines to try to combat a problem where the CAUSE is not known.
Later, he said we do not know the CAUSE of climate change. That’s consistent. Man can contribute without being the cause.
Never replacing the toothpaste cap can CONTRIBUTE to a divorce, but it’s seldom the CAUSE.
October 31st, 2011 at 4:04 pm
24. And…
hiring illegal immigrants
First. Mitt Romney never hired an illegal immigrant. He hired a COMPANY to do his lawn. The COMPANY hired some undocumented workers who were here, illegally.
People may say that Romney is responsible for the illegals, anyway. But, just think about what that would mean…
That would mean the private citizens are supposed to question anyone who looks like the MIGHT be from another country.
Do we really want a country where every a white man goes he’s asking for proof of citizenship from everyone who looks like they might be Mexican? Preposterous! Imagine going to a fine restaurant and being served by a waitress who looks like she COULD be Mexican. Is it appropriate for you to ask her if she’s here, legally? Would it be your responsibility to go to the manager or owner and say, “Have you verified that this woman is not an illegal?”.
NO! We can’t have that. Private citizens should NOT be looking at every darker skinned person and wondering if they’re legal or not. We have to trust EMPLOYERS to stay within the law.
It was actually INAPPROPRIATE for Mitt, as a citizen to tell the landscape company how to run their business– that they had to let the illegals go. But, he HAD to do it because he was under greater scrutiny and he knew that people would jump to the wrong conclusions (as they have).
We CANNOT have a country that asks citizens to police people’s legality.
October 31st, 2011 at 4:05 pm
24. And…
gay marriage
Governor Romney has maintained a consistent view regarding gay issues:
1.) Gays should be treated with respect and not be discriminated against,
2.) but traditional marriage must be preserved.
“Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, a Republican, is urging the adoption of a state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.”
TIME – Popping The Question – Dec 1, 2003
when the constitutional amendment received preliminary approval from the legislature, Mr. Romney, a Republican, asked the state attorney general, Thomas F. Reilly, to ask the court to stay the May 17 start date. But Mr. Reilly, a Democrat … refused to represent Mr. Romney or appoint another lawyer to do so,
“Romney, however, has used his bully pulpit to call for a total ban on gay marriage. The legislature complied, but only on an amendment that also permitted civil unions. Romney wasn’t happy about this. He also had no alternative. ”If I have to choose between gay marriages and civil unions,” he says, ”I’ll choose civil unions every time.” ”
”I believe that the best and most reliable way to protect traditional marriage is through a federal marriage amendment, as opposed to letting activist judges make policy on a state-by-state basis,” he [Governor Romney] said in a statement.
When all legal efforts failed to prevent or delay same-sex marriages before the court imposed deadline, the governor found a legal means to prevent out of state same-sex couples from marrying in Massachusetts, stating:
”Massachusetts should not become the Las Vegas of same-sex marriage. We do not intend to export our marriage confusion to the entire nation.”
Governor Romney fought for a marriage amendment his whole term in office. Even in his last two months in office, he kept fighting the legislature to place “a marriage amendment on the 2008 state ballot.” This would allow the state’s constitution to be amended to prevent same-sex marriages. He went so far as to join with state citizens to sue the legislature since, “The constitution of Massachusetts gives citizens the right to petition — and lawmakers are obligated to vote on that petition. They are refusing to do so.” (More than 170,000 people had signed the petition.)
Governor Romney stated in a speech at the capitol: “I was struck by the irony and the hypocrisy. Legislators so energized to protect the newly discovered gay right to marry had no compunction about trammeling the long established, constitutional right of the people to vote.”
Also, one month after same-sex marriage became legal in Massachusetts, Governor Romney testified before the U.S. Congress of the importance of an amendment to protect traditional marriage.
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, in his testimony on June 22, 2004, before the Senate Judiciary Committee, stated:
“Marriage is not an evolving paradigm, as the court said, but it is a fundamental and universal social institution that bears a real and substantial relation to the public health, safety, morals, and general welfare of all the people of Massachusetts.
“We need an amendment that restores and protects our societal definition of marriage, [and] blocks judges from changing that definition ….. at this point, the only way to reestablish the status quo ….. is to preserve the definition of marriage in the federal Constitution before courts redefine it out of existence.”
Also note that Republican Governor Schwarzenegger refused to support an amendment to the constitution that would overturn the CA ruling.
And, Connecticut Republican Governor Rell said that while she disagreed with the ruling she would not fight to reverse the CN decision.
Romney’s actions as governor were about as conservative as could be under the circumstances.
To summarize, Mitt has NEVER been for gay marriage, but he does believe in gay rights. He’s been consistent on this.
October 31st, 2011 at 4:09 pm
24. And…
healthcare
You’ll have to be more specific on this one. I’ll assume you mean his statement that MassCare would be a good model for the country but then slammed ObamaCare as bad for the country?
He has always said — and still believes — that MassCare was a good plan for Mass. There were some features he didn’t support, but he lost. There were some he vetoed, but got overturned.
When he said MassCare would be a good model for the nation, he very clearly meant that other states could use it as a model. He also very clearly said, “The government should stay out of the healthcare business.”
And saying the 72 page MassCare is the same as the 2700 page ObamaCare is like saying the proper use of prescription drugs by one with applicable symptoms the same as a drug addict.
October 31st, 2011 at 4:13 pm
24. And…
ethanol policy
October 31st, 2011 at 4:14 pm
24. So, thank you for being courageous and posting the specific areas where you were confused about Mitt’s consistent positions.
I hope the record has been cleared.
October 31st, 2011 at 6:37 pm
Keith,
I’m glad you came along to answer inane questions about Mitt that have been coming up for 5 years now. Some of the rest of us have gotten really tired of trotting out the same rebuttals time after time.
The sheer volume of misinformation about Romney is staggering…..but yes, it does need continual refutation…..if only for the sake of basic principles.
October 31st, 2011 at 7:40 pm
31. Well, and the fact that the ones who are just now starting to pay attention are going to just accept all these lies if we’re not diligent in refuting them. It’s rather frightening.
Sadly, I think this thread is on it’s last legs so very few people will see the work that went into these posts. (sigh)
November 1st, 2011 at 12:46 am
This is a flawed analysis because of margin of error and the fact that to quote Cain, “You’re not comparing apples to apples.” You’re trying to draw lines regardings polls of differing methodologies. The RCP Average has some value because it averages out the different polls. The Des Moines Register Poll has a margin of +/- 4.5% If you add +4.5% to Cain and Subtract -4.5% from Romney, you have Cain 27.5%, Romney 17.5% or the 10% of the University of Iowa poll.
November 1st, 2011 at 11:16 pm
I am not really sure that Cain’s campaign is ready to “go down in flames,” more like a slow steady burn out if he keeps having to defend and “re-explain” where he stands on issues. It is never a good sign when a candidate is called on the carpet time and time again in such a short period of time. And as far as Mitt Romney goes, he seems to have stalled so apparently having lots of campaign dollars is not necessarily going to guarantee him the nomination.
April 29th, 2012 at 4:55 pm
readers will see that you haven’t put…
work into them at all.9. length, keep it long, but not too long. make the article long enough to get your point across and get into detail, add more over time to keep the lens fresh, however do not make the…