October 4, 2011

Poll Watch: PPP Nebraska, West Virginia, and North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Polls

PPP (D) Nebraska 2012 GOP Primary Survey

  • Herman Cain 30%
  • Newt Gingrich 16% (18%)
  • Mitt Romney 13% (15%)
  • Michele Bachmann 10%
  • Rick Perry 10%
  • Ron Paul 5% (8%)
  • Rick Santorum 4%
  • Jon Huntsman 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 10% (12%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Newt Gingrich 49% (50%) / 32% (24%) {+17%}
  • Michele Bachmann 44% / 31% {+13%}
  • Mitt Romney 45% (51%) / 34% (23%) {+11%}
  • Rick Perry 35% / 35% {0%}
  • Ron Paul 25% / 46% {-21%}

Survey of 400 usual Nebraska Republican primary voters was conducted September 30 – October 2, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 40% Very conservative; 34% Somewhat conservative; 18% Moderate; 6% Somewhat liberal; 3% Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 26-27, 2011 are in parentheses.

PPP (D) West Virginia 2012 GOP Primary Survey

  • Herman Cain 24% (6%)
  • Newt Gingrich 18% (11%)
  • Mitt Romney 16% (14%)
  • Rick Perry 15% (33%)
  • Michele Bachmann 8% (11%)
  • Ron Paul 6% (7%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (4%)
  • Jon Huntsman 1% (1%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 9% (13%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Michele Bachmann 46% (46%) / 21% (21%) {+25%}
  • Newt Gingrich 50% (41%) {52%} [57%] (60%) / 26% (36%) {21%} [20%] (19%) {+24%}
  • Mitt Romney 42% (37%) {56%} [51%] (56%) / 27% (31%) {18%} [23%] (18%) {+15%}
  • Rick Perry 38% (52%) / 25% (9%) {+13%}
  • Ron Paul 23% / 43% {-20%}

Survey of 300 Republican primary voters was conducted September 30 – October 2, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 6.1 percentage points.  Political ideology: 43% (44%) {41%} [41%] Very conservative; 38% (38%) {40%} [34%] Somewhat conservative; 12% (13%) {11%} [18%] Moderate; 4% (2%) {5%} [6%] Somewhat liberal; 3% (2%) {2%} [2%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 1-4, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 11-12, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 21-24, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2011 are in parentheses.

PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Survey

  • Herman Cain 27% {9%} [9%] (9%) {21%}
  • Newt Gingrich 17% {8%} [11%] (9%) {14%}
  • Mitt Romney 17% {12%} [16%] (23%) {25%}
  • Rick Perry 15% {35%} [17%] (14%)
  • Michele Bachmann 6% {8%} [17%] (22%) {10%}
  • Ron Paul 6% {10%} [11%] (6%) {9%}
  • Rick Santorum 2% {4%}
  • Jon Huntsman 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {1%}
  • Someone else/Undecided 8% {12%} [13%] (10%) {10%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Newt Gingrich 58% {42%} {38%} [55%] (62%) {61%} [63%] / 31% {43%} {47%} [25%] (18%) {21%} [21%] {+27%}
  • Mitt Romney 50% {45%} [46%] (56%) {53%} [56%] (50%) {57%} [49%] / 31% {38%} [35%] (28%) {30%} [24%] (26%) {22%} [23%] {+19%}
  • Rick Perry 44% {61%} [40%] / 37% {17%} [16%] {+7%}
  • Michele Bachmann 41% {47%} [45%] (55%) / 39% {33%} [30%] (27%) {+2%}
  • Ron Paul 34% / 45% {-11%}

Survey of 400 North Carolina Republican primary voters was conducted September 30 – October 3, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 42% {43%} [42%] (43%) {39%} Very conservative; 37% {36%} [37%] (39%) {37%} Somewhat conservative; 16% {14%} [15%] (15%) {17%} Moderate; 4% {4%} [2%] (2%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 2% {2%} [3%] (1%) {3%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 1-4, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 4-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 7-10, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 8-11, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 16-21, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 17-19, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

by @ 4:16 pm. Filed under Poll Watch
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43 Responses to “Poll Watch: PPP Nebraska, West Virginia, and North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Polls”

  1. Matt "MWS" Says:

    As annointed Doomsayer, we hereby declare, say, define, and proclaim that Rick Perry is DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!

    Let any who would deny such doomsay be anathema!

  2. nate w Says:

    amen!

  3. thunder (Any body except Rick Perry) Says:

    So Cain is the new flavor of the month. Well, it could be worse, and least its not Rick Perry. But does any really believe he will win the nomination?

  4. Tyler M Says:

    This is the reason why I think that Mitt Romney needs to pick Jim DeMint for Vice President. Romney can win the northest, the midwest & the West by himself. But he’ll need the help of a strong conservative Southerner to pull in votes from the South. I’m sure that in a backward place like West Virginia, Romney polls are worse because of his religious faith. And that same problem would surely exist for Romney in many parts of North Carolina & to a lesser extent Nebraska too. Although, Nebraska & Iowa are very similar & Romney’s faith was a major factor in the 2008 Republican presidential primary.

  5. Tyler M Says:

    But overall, Romney has been growing his lead in an even bigger presidential field & Perry’s support has been plummeting due to the comments he made about illegal immigration & his support for in-state tuition for illegal aliens.

  6. WasAlso Says:

    Glad to see an “ideas guy” like Newt rising. But can Huntsman please catch on somewhere? Please?

  7. aspire Says:

    4) I’d have to look at how Romney polls against Obama in the South before considering that as important. How he polls against Republicans from the South is no indication of how he’ll perform in the general election against Obama.

  8. Max Twain Says:

    4

    If Romney needs an evangelical on the ticket that badly, he’ll go with Gov. Bob McDonnell.

  9. Dave for the General Republican Candidate Says:

    Wow again. This is great. Cain will now be seriously vetted and we can get a closer look at someone who can be more exciting who also has the jobs know how. Like I said on another thread. I don’t know if Cain is ready, and it may be a gamble with his lack of government executive experience, especially foreign policy experience, but I just can’t help but like the guy. I feel a lot better about gambling on someone who knows how to run things and who is solidly conservative.

    Time will tell. He may fall fast like every other flavor of the month, but I’m hoping we see good things.

  10. mac Says:

    8. McDonnell is Roman Catholic.

  11. Perry For Obama 2012 Says:

    5th place in Nebraska, 4th in WV and NC…..BlagoPerrych is toast….and extra crispy.

  12. Tommy R Says:

    Unlike Perry, Cain is likeable by Rombots. I’m content.

  13. Tommy R Says:

    Notice Gingrich’s favorables and Perry’s. One going up, the other down.

  14. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Is every promising politician in this party Catholic? Just found out (though not super surprising I guess) that Susana Martinez is as well. Will there be ANY non-Catholics on the veep shortlist? Very strange.

  15. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    I don’t believe these polls for a second.

    GINGRICH ahead of Romney AND Perry?

    Sorry, no. Not even in Georgia.

    These polls are junk, folks.

  16. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    14

    Bob McDonnell, Herman Cain

  17. mac Says:

    16 see 10

  18. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    As mac just noted, McDonnell is apparently Catholic. I don’t see how Cain makes any sense as Veep. Geographically he adds nothing, and any crossover appeal he’d have to black voters isn’t going to carry over if he’s on the bottom of the ticket. Seriously though, can you see any of our nominees going beyond this list?

    1. Marco Rubio
    2. Bob McDonnell
    3. Susana Martinez
    4. Bobby Jindal
    5. Kelly Ayotte

    Every one Catholic. Actually, I suppose Portman and Ron Johnson will get and deserve a look and neither of them are Catholic. Still, pretty strange for a party that is supposedly dominated by evangelicals.

  19. Matthew Kilburn Says:

    “If Romney needs an evangelical on the ticket that badly, he’ll go with Gov. Bob McDonnell.”

    DeMint and Romney are extremely close personally…and now that DeMint is almost certain to endorse Romney again, its hard to argue there would be any problems between him. It was personal communication between the two that got Romney to come to DeMint’s forum after he initially declined.

    Looks like Perry’s people are running for Cain and Gingrich…that says there’s running to everything else Southern and not named Mitt Romney.

    I don’t like to nitpick on the issue of religious, but I do think that represents a fairly strong bias in the case of WV and NC against someone from the Northeast.

    I don’t know enough about Nebraska to speculate….although it could be a similar issue.

  20. Eric Says:

    15 – I agree. I can see Cain getting a big bump after all the recent media attention but to see Gingrich second in all three states without anything significant, it’s hard to believe.

  21. Kavon W. Nikrad Says:

    I think Rubio left the Catholic Church and is now an Evangelical:

    Rubio currently attends Christ Fellowship, an evangelical Protestant Church in West Kendall, Fla., where he has attended for the last six years.

  22. Matthew Kilburn Says:

    “crossover appeal he’d have to black voters isn’t going to carry over if he’s on the bottom of the ticket.”

    I wouldn’t be so sure.

    Blacks aren’t exactly satisfied with Obama, are they? Approval rating only in the 70s? I don’t know how many Cain would bring to our side….but I could see how me might suppress turnout in the black community by allowing those who aren’t thrilled with Obama, but don’t want to bite the bullet to vote GOP, to stay at home – thinking they’ll have a stake either way. This could be big in urban areas in swing states. If Blacks in Detroit, Pittsburg, Philadelphia, Columbus, etc. stay home…we win.

    Cain has other weaknesses….but if we really want to talk about tokenism, you can make a case for him.

  23. april Says:

    Now I am not so sure who will be the target(s) in next debate?

  24. Matthew Kilburn Says:

    Rubio still lists himself as Catholic:

    http://www.myfloridahouse.gov/SEctions/Representatives/details.aspx?MemberId=4180&SessionId=42

    Perhaps his wife is an evangelical, so he attends services with her?

  25. mac Says:

    MEM maybe you can talk some sense into Matthew K regarding DeMint.

  26. Sojourner Truth (Give 'em hell, Cain!) Says:

    Cain is way ahead in WV, NC, GA and NE.

    You know what that means?

    He’s likely ahead of Mitt in SC too.

    And if Cain’s ahead of Mitt in SC it would serve us all well to keep an eye on Iowa.

    Maybe we ought to do that before we start worrying about who Romney is going to choose as VP – because from everything I see, it’ll be a snowy day in July before most of the Republican base warms to Romney, and the only way Romney wins is if two or more candidates split the anti-Romney vote.

  27. Herman Cain = Affirmative Action Candidate Says:

    We all know a white candidate with the same resume and platitudes as Cain would not be leading the Republican primary polls in multiple states. Will the other candidates be too cowardly to stop Cain out of fear of being called “racist,” like Clinton and McCain in 2008?

  28. JA Pruce Says:

    A Herman Cain/Allen West ticket would be the most formidable ticket we could field as it would go straight after Obama’s base and appeal to conservatives and independents alike.

  29. Sojourner Truth (Give 'em hell, Cain!) Says:

    27 – Even if Cain were an affirmative action candidate – I’d walk on broken glass to vote for him over Romney.

  30. marK Says:

    I’ve got a few problems with Herman Cain. He’s a little green and inexperienced at the National Level. He’s never held political office before, and the Presidency in not an office for OJT.

    However, he is an experienced executive, he is honest, and he is not given to hyperbole — all excellent traits to have in the Presidency. I am still a Romney man, but I can easily see me supporting Cain.

  31. Kavon W. Nikrad Says:

    My first choice is still Romney/Rubio but I am starting to really warm up to Romney/Cain.

  32. teledude Says:

    Cain
    Trump
    Bachmann
    Perry
    Cain – again*

    This does not equal Palin (not even close)

    It’s who they are really waiting for (even if they don’t know it – unwavering conservative values and the strength of her convictions, coupled with a stellar record of successful governance and reform)

    I understand she has done none of the ‘traditional’ things to run. This is strong mojo for most Republicans (clearly not the imaginative segment of the population, new approaches don’t come easy to the party of tradition)

    Do you really think she can just walk away from this opportunity though?

    It’s a question.

  33. nate w Says:

    I can name some things she has walked away from. How about her elected position.

  34. pea-jay Says:

    Waiting for Craig to dump Perry and update his moniker to Cain/???

  35. Jerald Says:

    #34…pea-jay

    Waiting for Craig to dump Perry and update his moniker to Cain/???

    It will take him a little while. He was all ready to roll out Christie/???…

  36. Still Hurting Says:

    I believe Huckabee is still SBC.

  37. This is Herman Cain Breaks Big | Race 4 2012 Says:

    [...] Poll Watch: PPP Nebraska, West Virginia, and North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Polls [...]

  38. AJNolte (executive experience in 2012, please). Says:

    Wow, this is impressive. Cain now needs a really solid foreign policy speech or three, and to prove that he’s got some staying power. But this rise is absolutely astonishing.
    Honestly, the best possible VP pick for Cain would be Huntsman, and he’d be a descent pick for Romney from a party unity perspective. I don’t think Romney will pick him, because of his “Dick Cheney” comment, but if Cain becomes the tea party standard-bearer, I could see a unity ticket.

    To the “affirmative action” point, I’m not so sure a white business executive with a lot of charisma and some outsider cred–not to mention the kind of fan base Herman Cain has built up–wouldn’t reach flavor of the month status. This is pretty much the profile of a tea party candidate circa 2010, and I’m by no means convinced the GOP is through with that phase. Bill Maloney essentially has Cain’s profile–but is white–and he looks like having a descent shot at winning tonight’s special election in WV.

  39. AJNolte (executive experience in 2012, please). Says:

    *Decent shot*

  40. jaxemer11 Says:

    PPP Push Polls. Wake me up when any of these states matter.

  41. jaxemer11 Says:

    Nothing like polls from random meaningless state pumping up a random candidate to make Mitt look bad.

  42. jaxemer11 Says:

    If Cain really catches on with the Tea Party, which I’m not sure will happen and last (remember last time he surged he made the Muslim gaffe and fell off the map), then I can see him being a good VP pick.

  43. This is Herman Cain Breaks Big | Herman Cain PAC Says:

    [...] the PPP polls that came out today, we have some serious indication that Herman Cain may be here to stay as a [...]

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