Events during the past few days signal both change and no change in the 2012 Republican presidential nominating contest.
Among the candidates, another bubble has burst, another third-tier hopeful is suddenly in the limelight, two major non-candidates are becoming increasingly distant from entering the race, and the long-time frontrunner, recently supplanted by a new face, seems to be back in charge.
Important changes in the nominating procedure, however, have taken place. In particular, Colorado and Florida have apparently decided to move their primaries up, and into the time period set aside by Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, the official earliest GOP voting events. This will cause the aforementioned “official” states to move their primaries/caucus to earlier dates, presumably now beginning in early January instead of early February. The “penalty” for the early states is that they must now split their delegates proportional to the popular vote. States which schedule their voting in April and later may choose to have “winner take-all. allocations of their delegates to the national convention in Tampa in September, 2012.
This new circumstance would seem to benefit former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney whose political strength seems to be in most of the potential “winner-take-all” primaries and caucuses. On the other hand, Texas Governor Rick Perry’s apparent greatest strength lies in those states (mostly Southern states) which will hold their primaries before the deadline.
For some time, two potentially major contestants for the nomination (former Governor Palin and Governor Christie) have been “teasing” the media and their supporters with intimations they might get into the race. To be fair to New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, he has said “no” consistently and emphatically. But in U.S. presidential politics,“no” is often interpreted as “maybe,” no matter how emphatically it is uttered. In spite of pleas from supporters to get into the race, however, time is running out, and their candidacies would soon be problematic.
For the time being, Mr. Perry’s “bubble” seems to be losing air fast, although his poll numbers are still high. Close examination of his record and his public statements on some issues, plus a less-than-satisfactory series of debate performances have led to this circumstance, but it would be premature to write the Texas governor off. Businessman Herman Cain did well in a Tea Party Florida straw poll, and his poll numbers have risen since, An articulate man with lots of personality and charm, Mr. Cain is for now more a factor in the campaign.
Another candidate, once a first-tier contestant, but reduced to a lower tier by early gaffes, is making somewhat of a comeback by registering low double digits in some polls. That is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has been widely applauded for his performance in all of the debates so far, and he has just introduced a new version of his 1993 Contract With America, the document that had so much to do with the GOP success in 1994, and which elevated him to speaker. The new version addresses most of the concerns of the Tea Party and others in the Republican base, including taxes, spending, defense, government intrusion, immigration and
foreign policy. It’s too soon to measure its impact, but if it resonates, it could make Mr. Gingrich the focus for party conservatives who are looking for an alternative to Mr. Romney, the frontrunner.
Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has redoubled her efforts to make up significant lost ground in opinion polls following her victory in the Iowa Straw Poll. She is concentrating her efforts with the evangelical segment of the party, a group which had seemed to go to Mr. Perry in recent weeks.
Although some commentators have contended that Mr. Romney is the favorite of the so-called Republican “establishment,” and that he may not be conservative enough, he has shown notable resilience in the campaign so far. For several weeks his frontrunner status was thrown in serious question after Mr Perry entered the race and went almost instantly to the top of the polls. But Mr. Romney’s self-confident and well-prepared debate performances, plus his large number of endorsements by GOP officials across the country and at all levels, has seemed to put him back on top. He does have a long way to go before winning the nomination, but the moving up of the early primary and caucus state votes has probably shortened that time-line and enhanced his chances.
Thus, the GOP campaign has gone through some notable changes, but its essential landscape remains the same. It should be remembered that after Ronald Reagan had secured his 1980 nomination, there were lots of doubts about him expressed by some GOP party activists, and the same phenomenon happened to Bill Clinton in 1992 by some of his party activists when it became clear he would be the Democratic nominee.
Names, faces. and issues change with each presidential election cycle, but it is uncanny how much the basic political psychology remains the same.
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-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site, BarryCasselman.com.
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:59 pm
Final Two:
It will all come down to the conservative, tea party favorite, Perry VERSUS the moderate and Wall Street’s pick, Romney.
Unless Chrisie gets in to split the latter.
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:01 pm
And like Reagan and Clinton before, Romney will be the next great American President of this generation.
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:01 pm
http://thehill.com/video/campaign/185113-cain-backs-off-criticism-of-perry-ranch-denies-playing-race-card
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:02 pm
Christie!
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:03 pm
3. Limbaugh let Cain have it this morning. Cain listened and quickly backed down.
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:07 pm
Hey, Craig!
What think ye of the latest Florida poll showing Perry in single digits and languishing in fourth place, and Romney in first place almost at 30%?
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:09 pm
Rick Perry/Jeb Bush 2012! Says:
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:02 pm
Christie!
Christie has to be looking at this a realize that early polls don’t mean much. Christie must know that if he gets in the vetting will be brutal. He isn’t going to get in, if he does, he will not go anywhere.
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Report on Fox News just said that Christie told his advisors that a very compelling case would need to be made to get him to abandon his state at a time like this, with so much unfinished business to be carried out. Those are apparently Christie’s words, and his stance.
It tells me that he doesn’t think he has done enough in New Jersey, and that he feels he would be abandoning his state if he tried to run. That’s his mind-set. It looks like he is placating advisors with whom he wants to work in the future, but he has already made up his mind.
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:19 pm
8
What I can read from this, is that Christie says “no” – but he wants it to be clear why he says no.
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:26 pm
8, 9
If that’s true, game over. Considering Perry’s gigantic implosion, I can easily see Romney winning Iowa at this point and sweeping the early states.
There are only 88 days until the Iowa Caucus. That’s practically tomorrow.
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:33 pm
Iowa likely to choose a date between Jan 3-8:
Getting closer to our final calendar…
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:38 pm
Okay, Casselman, you did not just say that Gingrich could come to be seen as more conservative than Romney! Please.
If the problem with Mitt is that he is “establishment” and that he has expressed sympathy for such taboo subjects as Global Warming and some Immigration issues, not to mention healthcare… you can not seriously thinking Gingrich would suddenly look less “establishment” and less sympathetic to GWarming,with his little ad with Pelosi. and healthcare mandates than Mitt, when Gingrich was all over praising Romneycare when it passed!
Gingrich might have been conservative once. But the goal posts have moved this year and Gingrich is much more moderate than the Tea Party!
Mitt is still, like 2008 the most conservative candidate that can win.
And, Gingrich is so mercurial in his focus that he is just as likely to decide a debate was a time to boost Obama as bash him!
Gingrich is smart. But he is also so full of his smartness that he often gets carried away arguing the other side’s case! That tends to be a problem with people who understand both points of view. Romney has been guilty too, but much less than Newt.
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:44 pm
PolitickerNJ.com:
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:52 pm
6.
Why are Rombots like you and Matt C. so desperate with your junk pollsters? And why so panicky all the time? Relax a little.
If it’s not reported on at RCP, it’s not reputable:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-1597.html
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:58 pm
Christie at 18.5 on intrade, though he was in the upper 20′s most of the weekend
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:58 pm
I just want to take the time to raise an interesting subject to you all…
I looked at the debate calendar, and there is not a single scheduled debate from Oct 18 to Dec 10, which is roughly 7 weeks.
At least one of the candidates will likely drop out during that time frame, having run out of money, and with no opportunities to have a breakout moment for 7 weeks.
Who will it be?
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:59 pm
14
The War Room poll is consistent with the REPUTABLE SurveyUSA poll. In other words, it’s probably an accurate poll.
October 3rd, 2011 at 4:04 pm
Boy, that news instills confidence!
October 3rd, 2011 at 4:06 pm
14
Desperate?????? The only desperate person on this site is the one and only Perrywinckle/Jeb Bush 2012. To call Perry in a free fall would be generous.
October 3rd, 2011 at 4:06 pm
16. Bachmann, if reports from the LAT are accurate. I just posted a link in the FL poll thread.
October 3rd, 2011 at 4:07 pm
18
ROTFL
October 3rd, 2011 at 4:14 pm
I don’t get the Christie thing. I mean, with both Mitt and Perry in, for what reason does Christie get in? Doesn’t make much sense to me. If he’s the alternative to Mitt, then his entrance will pave the way for Perry as the candidate. Seems he could help Mitt more if he were to endorse and wait for 2016.
October 3rd, 2011 at 4:18 pm
I just read that not only did Ann Romney have to deal with MS, but that in 2008 she had breast cancer! Oh my. That is so much stress. Luckily they caught it early and it is gone for now.
Maybe it wasn’t Mitt’s year that year. Ann seems to be dealing with her MS very well.
October 3rd, 2011 at 4:19 pm
18, Oh yeah I meant to say that too!
What are they thinking? This looks like the makings of an epic disaster to me!
October 3rd, 2011 at 4:34 pm
22.
Exactly. But I hope he runs to split the moderate wing. And so do almost all conservatives.
October 3rd, 2011 at 4:40 pm
#25
“Exactly. But I hope he runs to split the moderate wing. And so do almost all conservatives.”
You don’t think CC has that figured out? You think he would want to be used as a tool?? I don’t think that is the only reason why CC doesn’t run, I believe he wants to finish what he started in NJ.
October 3rd, 2011 at 5:18 pm
26, not to mention, if CC thinks that his running will make it likely for Perry to win, I think he would put that in a “Con” column for running.
October 3rd, 2011 at 5:19 pm
Why would a moderate Chris Christie run to split the moderate wing? Doesn’t make sense.
October 3rd, 2011 at 6:09 pm
The “penalty” for the early states is that they must now split their delegates proportional to the popular vote.
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That is not entirely true. There is a exception that allows winner take all if a candidate gets 50%. By March there are likely to be only 2 candidates if the nomination is alive. Texas, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi are using this exception.
We have seen conservatives go to Trump, Cain, Bachmann, Perry and some back to Cain. That clearly shows that it is still wide open for Palin if she decides to get in later.
October 3rd, 2011 at 7:35 pm
Franklin, you should write comedy sketches.
October 3rd, 2011 at 8:07 pm
At least my candidate is solid. Go Mitt.