… that is all

Sometime advisor to Gov. Sarah Palin (and all around Republican big-shot) Fred Malek stated in an interview on ABC News’ Top Line that he feels the time has passed for Palin to enter the presidential race:

“She could pick up a lot of support going in. But I think it is too late. I think the field is set, and I think it’s a great field,” Malek told us. “I think our nominee and the next president will be a governor. And I’m thankful for that.”

Beyond whether it’s possible for her to compete, Malek said it would be a bad move for Palin to try and run.

“I think it would be really, personally, not a good move for her. She’s doing a very, very good job on the circuit. She’s making money for her family, she’s having influence on people nationwide, she’s having influence on the race. I think anybody who gets the nomination is going to want to have her support because she energizes a lot of people.”

“I don’t think she should get in, and I don’t think she will,” he added.

Malek, who is active as a fundraiser for the Republican Governors Association, said he’s “very happy” with Perry’s entrance into the field. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., “will continue” to fade in the race, leaving Perry and Romney as the main contenders.

Be sure to click over to ABC News to see a snippet of Malek’s interview.

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

• Mitt Romney 43% (39%) {38%} [43%] {40%} [44%] (44%)
• Barack Obama 40% (43%) {46%} [42%] {45%} [42%] (44%)

Surveys of 1,000 likely voters were conducted September 10-11, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the polls conducted August 17-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the polls conducted between July 14-15, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the polls conducted May 1-14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted between March 6 and March 31, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted between January 3 and February 1, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 24, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Obama has the support of 79% of Democrats, while 73% of Republicans back Romney. Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, the Republican leads by 13 points – 42% to 29%. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Tea Party members favor Romney. Non-members prefer the president 50% to 34%.

Romney holds a 14-point lead among male voters, while female voters prefer Obama by seven points. The incumbent leads among voters under 30; Romney holds the edge among older voters.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

PPP (D) 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 49%
• Mitt Romney 45%

• Barack Obama 52%
  
• Rick Perry 41%

• Barack Obama 53%
• Newt Gingrich 41%

• Barack Obama 53%
  
• Michele Bachmann 39%

(more…)

I haven’t posted for a while. I’ve been concentrating on other things. But this bit of news from Politico caught my eye, and I wanted to share it:

Mike Huckabee dings Rick Perry, says Mitt Romney more ‘electable’

Mike Huckabee rapped Rick Perry for his Social Security comments on Laura Ingraham’s radio show, and suggested that Tim Pawlenty lined up behind Mitt Romney because he may be the more “electable” choice.

“What Tim [Pawlenty] is looking at is the fact that Mitt may be the most electable Republican,” said Huckabee, adding at another point, “We’ve got good candidates that aren’t getting enough airtime, I was keeping count. Rick Perry got 15 questions posed; Rick Santorum and Herman Cain got five. I’ve been in that situation when you’re stuck out on the edge of that platform and you’re given token opportunities to respond and it’s very difficult to break out when the press decides who is going to be in the game and who isn’t.”

Also, he said bluntly: “Perry hurt himself a lot with his Social Security talk and what he said may be technically true, but you go to South Florida or even any part of Florida or even the part where I live in the panhandle where you have a lot of retired people and essentially say that Social Security is a criminal enterprise, that’s problematic.”

What do you guys think of that?

Oh, and while we’re on the subject of “former Big-3′s not in the race”, did you see what Sarah Palin had to say over on Greta last night? From The Hill:

In the immediate aftermath of Monday’s GOP presidential debate, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) launched jabs at the entire Republican field, a move sure to ramp up speculation that the 2008 vice presidential candidate will make her own bid for the nomination.

“They haven’t tackled debt and deficit spending to the degree that they should, so they don’t have a record to stand on,” Palin said of the GOP candidates, all of whom serve or have served in public office, save businessman Herman Cain (R).

Palin even went as far as to lend her voice to the charge leveled by Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) during the debate against Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R): That he allowed a law to go though requiring HPV vaccinations for adolescent girls because of a $5,000 campaign donation and his relationship with his former chief of staff, who went on to lobby for a pharmaceutical company.

“I knew there was something to it,” Palin said of learning while she was Alaska’s governor that her Texas counterpart had given the go-ahead to the vaccine. “Now we’re finding that now, yea, something was up with that issue. It was an illustration or bit of evidence of some crony capitalism.”

After taking a generic jab at all of the candidates, she called out Perry by name and blasted him for his HPV episode. Regardless what you may think or say about Sarah, it is a fact that she made her first big splash in politics by going after crony capitalism and the corruption surrounding it. It got her elected Governor and onto the radar screen of her fellow “maverick”, John McCain. Because of her history, I have a difficult time seeing her endorsing Rick Perry any time soon.

So Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin are both taking shots at Perry and pretty much leaving Mitt Romney alone. How interesting. How very interesting.

PPP (D) NY-9 Special Election Poll

• Bob Turner (R) 47%
• David Weprin (D) 41%
• Christopher Hoeppner (S) 4%
• Undecided 7%

Among Democrats

• David Weprin (D) 58%
• Bob Turner (R) 29%
• Christopher Hoeppner (S) 4%
• Undecided 9%

Among Republicans

• Bob Turner (R) 83%
• David Weprin (D) 10%
• Christopher Hoeppner (S) 4%
• Undecided 2%

Among Independents

• Bob Turner (R) 58%
• David Weprin (D) 26%
• Christopher Hoeppner (S) 7%
• Undecided 10%

(more…)

In CNN’s preview, they list five things to watch for in tonight’s debate:

1. Round 2 of Romney vs. Perry on Social Security
2. Bachmann Going After Perry
3. Can Huntsman become relevant?
4. Can Herman Cain muster a breakout performance?
5. Who will the second tier candidates target?

Can you think of any others? Then have at it in the comments. The debate is being televised on cable TV on CNN and will be broadcast on the Internet on CNN.com.

CNN is reporting that Bobby Jindal is going to endorse Rick Perry for President. You can read more about that here.

-Sorry to break into Matthew’s post, but I thought that the text of the official announcement would be better placed here than its own thread—KWN:

“Rick Perry is the candidate who can lead our party to victory in 2012,” said Gov. Jindal. “His record on job creation simply cannot be beat, and the one million jobs he’s helped create as governor is a stark contrast to the 2.4 million jobs lost on President Obama’s watch. President Obama promised hope, but he simply hasn’t delivered. Rick Perry will bring our country more than hope – he’ll get America working again.”

As Governor, Rick Perry has helped build the nation’s top economy. Since June 2009, Texas is responsible for nearly 40 percent of the net new jobs in America.

“I truly appreciate Gov. Jindal’s endorsement because he is a leader who knows what it takes to rebuild an economy and restore people’s confidence,” said Gov. Perry. “His efforts to cut taxes and reduce unreasonable regulations are helping the Louisiana economy grow, and that is exactly what I aim to do for America. I look forward to continuing to work with him throughout this campaign, and with his help, we’ll get America working again.”

Magellan Strategies (R) North Carolina 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 45%
• Mitt Romney 43%

• Barack Obama 48%
• Rick Perry 43%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Perry 31% / 37% {-6%}
• Barack Obama 44% / 52% {-8%}
• Mitt Romney 30%  / 44% {-14%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

• Approve 40%
• Disapprove 54%

Do you think that Barack Obama deserves to be re-elected, or do you think that Barack Obama does not deserve to be re-elected?

• Deserves to be re-elected 44%
• Does not deserve to be re-elected 52%

Survey of 923 likely voters was conducted September 7-8, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.23 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 46% Democrat; 35% Republican; 19% Independent.  Political ideology: 44% Conservative; 37% Moderate; 12% Liberal. Click here to view crosstabs.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

Race 4 2012′s CNN/Tea Party Express Open Forum thread will be going live at 7:30pm EST. CNN is speculating that a rematch of the Perry-Romney exchange on Social Security may be in the making:

A battle over Social Security between the top two contenders in the race for the GOP nomination that started at this week’s presidential debate doesn’t show any signs of quieting down, and a presidential debate Monday night in Florida could serve as the setting for round two in the clash.

It all started Wednesday night, at the debate at the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, when Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the new guy in the race and the current frontrunner in the national polls, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the previous frontrunner in the GOP battle, sparred over jobs and social security.

At the debate, Perry stood by earlier comments that Social Security is a “Ponzi scheme” and that it was a “monstrous lie” to tell young workers that the 74-year-old pension system would be there when they retire. Romney responded at the debate, and since then both candidates have swung at each other through email releases and on social media.

On Sean Hannity’s national radio program, Romney went a step further than he did on stage Wednesday night, saying that “if we nominate someone who the Democrats can correctly characterize as being opposed to Social Security, we would be obliterated as a party.”

Perry’s team fired back, noting that in Romney’s policy book “No Apology,” the former Massachusetts governor compared the management of Social Security to a felony.

Be sure to share your thoughts in real-time here are R4’12 beginning at 7:30 EST.

CNN/ORC 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

• Rick Perry 30%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Sarah Palin 15%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Herman Cain 5%
• Newt Gingrich 5%
• Michele Bachmann 4%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Someone else (vol.) 2%
• None/No one (vol.) 4%
• No opinion 2%

(more…)

P.S. In addition to the endorsement, Pawlenty will serve as Nation Co-Chairman of Romney’s campaign.

This morning, Tim Pawlenty has endorsed Mitt Romney for President. Here’s the link to the press release.

The attacks on Rick Perry keep coming from Team Bachmann (who is desperately trying to regain the support he stole from her) and from the Bachmann-backing Super PAC, Keep Conservatives United.

First, KCU is releasing a new radio ad in South Carolina — the same state where the PAC ran a TV ad blasting Perry on his fiscal credentials. The topic this time is illegal immigration, and calls Perry’s record “atrocious”:

The ad, which will air during conservative talk shows starting Tuesday, will seek to portray Bachmann as tough on illegal immigration and Perry as failing to crack down on it as governor. “The difference is clear,” the ad says. “To stop illegal immigration, support Michele Bachmann.”

Meanwhile, Team Bachmann is gearing up to hit Perry hard in the Florida debate tomorrow night on his social security faux pas at the Reagan Library debate:

Byron York telegraphs the lines of attack Michele Bachmann is planning on using at tomorrow night’s Florida debate to chip away at the support Rick Perry has taken from her:

“Bernie Madoff deals with Ponzi schemes, not the grandparents of America,” says a Bachmann adviser. “Clearly she feels differently about the value of Social Security than Gov. Perry does. She believes Social Security needs to be saved, that it’s an important safety net for Americans who have paid into it all their lives.”

Perry’s opponents are smelling blood in the water over the social security issue. My guess is that they all have some internal polling showing this as a losing issue for Perry, and they intend to attack him on it relentlessly. It makes sense, really, when you consider the blowback outside the GOP primary field that Perry has received — Chris Christie, one of the most sought after endorsements of the 2012 cycle, said he sides with Romney over Perry on the issue. And former Governor John Sununu, a key figure in New Hampshire, announced that he will be endorsing either Romney or Perry — and does not like Perry on social security.

Actually, one of the only major players to back Perry in this fight is the one I predicted would end up endorsing him anyways: Sarah Palin. Hmmmm…

Gov. Gary Johnson today issued the following statement on the tenth anniversary of the September 11th attacks:

“As we all pause this weekend to remember the events of September 11, 2001, our thoughts are with those who lost their lives, those who saved so many lives, and a nation that showed its greatness in countless ways.  9/11 and the days after were a time when ordinary Americans did extraordinary things. Our thoughts and our gratitude are also with the amazing men and women of our military who are putting themselves on the line every day to keep us safe.  The fight against those who would do us harm continues today, and it is a fight we must carry out with the same determination that was so magnificently displayed by the heroes of 9/11.

“America is about liberty.  Ten years ago, liberty was attacked.  To those who lost their lives and those many more whose lives were forever changed, our deep obligation is to insure that liberty prevails not just today, but for generations to come.”

Herman Cain today issued the following statement on the tenth anniversary of the September 11th attacks:

On September 11, 2001, we saw the worst of our enemies, but we saw the best of us.

In a time of utter chaos and despair, Americans of all walks of life united under our flag for the cause of caring for one another and our country.

Although we shall never forget the loss of precious life on that Tuesday morning, terrorists did not and will never win, for the spirit of America- the triumphant spirit that has sustained us for more than two centuries- was reaffirmed, even in our darkest hour.

As long as we are prosperous and as long as we are free, America will remain the envy of the world. That’s why, ten years later, we must answer the high moral call for defending this great nation for Her preservation for generations to come.

In honor of the fallen and those who continue to sacrifice for our sake, may we be ever mindful of the goodness of our people, our resiliency through trials and God’s continued grace upon this land.

Thad McCotter today issued the following statement on the tenth anniversary of the September 11th attacks:

Today, as every day, we remember and mourn our murdered fellow Americans; we pray with and for and support their loved ones who bear the ache of unfathomable loss; and, we reaffirm our devotion to the moral imperatives of defeating terrorism, defending life and advancing freedom.

Mitt Romney today issued the following statement on the tenth anniversary of the September 11^th attacks:

Ten years ago, we were visited by a human darkness so evil that it plotted and then rejoiced in the murder of innocent lives. We cherish the bright memories of the fallen, and keep our hearts open to the loved ones they left behind. As for those who seek to inflict more harm, understand this: you will never find rest on this earth so long as you threaten our peace and freedom. America will always be strong in defending liberty at home and around the world.

Governor Jon Huntsman has issued the following statement on the tenth anniversary of September 11th:

Today we remember those who lost their lives in Pennsylvania, New York, and at the Pentagon and those in our military who have sacrificed in battlefields abroad as a result of one of America’s most tragic days. And we celebrate the inspiring courage and heroism of all those who met evil in the eye like the passengers on Flight 93 and the firefighters and policemen who stormed into the burning towers. We will never forget the fallen. We will never forget how America can overcome any challenge when we unite with resolve and common purpose.

…September 11th, 2001

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

I generally wait a couple days after the end of the month to post the monthly update of the poll trends, to make sure that all polls completed that month are included. This month, however, two polls came in very late — both showing Rick Perry with very high numbers. I decided the results for the month changed enough that it was worthwhile posting revised results (the original is here).

This is especially so because something noteworthy happened in August — for the first time a candidate breached the 30% mark, with Perry finishing August at 30.2%. The highest previous number was Mitt Romney’s 26.4 in April 2010.

Perry’s rise has been nothing short of phenomenal — he doubled from under fifteen to just over thirty in one month. Obviously, that can’t continue (if he hits sixty in September, it may be time for the Rombots to panic). The question is — will he fall back to earth, level off, or continue to rise, just more slowly?

Perry now leads Romney by twelve points. How quickly can things change? Only two months ago, Romney was in first place by twelve (over Sarah Palin), now he’s down by the same margin. There’s no reason to think the surprises won’t keep coming.

Recent special elections in New York have been unpleasant to say the least. NY-20, NY-23 and NY-26 all Republicans seats, were lost in special elections. However, if Siena Research is to be believed, then the special election to fill the seat of disgraced Anthony Wiener, things are going to be much different:

Bob Turner: 50%
Dave Weprin: 44%
Don’t know: 6%

Now, when the GOP lost NY-23 and NY-26, Democrats gloated about how Republican these seats were that fell to the Democrats. If Bob Turner, the GOP nominee wins the special election on Tuesday, it will be the first time a Republican has represented this part of Brooklyn and Queens since 1923. Geraldine Ferraro and Chuck Schumer both represented this district in Congress. And now it could be turned red.

There are several reasons why Bob Turner is doing so well. First, Dave Weprin, the Democratic nominee, has suffered from the sense of entitlement that comes from such a history; just like Martha Coakley in Massachusetts, Weprin hasn’t thought he really needed to campaign. When he has campaigned, it has led to damaging gaffes. For instance, when asked about the size of the federal debt, Weprin thought it was around 4 trillion, not 14 trillion. He even, absurdly, canceled on a scheduled debate due to Hurricane Irene, which had barely touched the district. Also, Bob Turner has done a very good job of linking Weprin to Obama on two key issues: the economy/debt and, very importantly, Israel. This district has a very large Jewish population, and President Obama’s rather arrogant attitude towards our closest Middle Eastern ally has not endeared him to the Jewish voters of the district. This is particularly true of the Orthodox Jews of the district, who are more conservative anyways.

Unfortunately, if Bob Turner wins this special election, don’t expect him to enjoy it very long. New York is losing several seats in the redistricting process and NY-9 was scheduled to be axed anyways. However, it will illustrate that the dissatisfaction with President Obama is reaching even into blue America. Much like Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts, a Republican win in NY-9 could serve as a warning for Democrats about next year’s elections. Even more importantly, the Democrat tactic in this election is standard for them; Mediscaring and saying that the GOP will take their Social Security. If Bob Turner wins in the face of this nonsense, it could also show that the Democrat’s favorite tactic is no guarantee of victory, even in Brooklyn and Queens.

PPP (D) South Carolina 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary Survey

If the Democratic candidates for President in 2016 were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Russ Feingold, Kirsten Gillibrand, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, and Mark Warner, who would you vote for?

• Hillary Clinton 57%
• Joe Biden 23%
• Andrew Cuomo 5%
• Deval Patrick 2%
• Russ Feingold 1%
• Mark Warner 1%
• Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
• Brian Schweitzer 0%
• Someone else/Undecided 11%

If the Democratic candidates for President in 2016 were just Andrew Cuomo, Russ Feingold, Kirsten Gillibrand, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, and Mark Warner, who would you vote for?

• Andrew Cuomo 15%
• Mark Warner 8%
• Russ Feingold 7%
• Deval Patrick 4%
• Kirsten Gillibrand 3%
• Brian Schweitzer 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 61%

Survey of 226 usual Democratic primary voters was conducted August 25-28, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 6.5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 46%
• Rick Perry 46%

• Barack Obama 45%
• Mitt Romney 44%

• Barack Obama 47%
  
• Michele Bachmann 45%

• Barack Obama 48%
  
• Newt Gingrich 43%

• Barack Obama 49%
  
• Sarah Palin 42%

(more…)

Capital Survey Research Center Alabama 2012 Presidential Poll

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

• Rick Perry 22.5%
• Mitt Romney 19.9%
• Sarah Palin 11.6%
• Herman Cain 10%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Michele Bachmann 8%
• Newt Gingrinch 6%
• Rick Santorum 0%
• Jon Huntsman 0%
• Don’t know 14%

(more…)

Carolyn May at The Daily Caller has the story. Essentially, Paul states that nothing happened:

Paul said he does not even remember what they discussed.

“The truth is I wish it were a much more interesting story than that, because I don’t even recall the moment that that was occurring and I don’t remember exactly what he said. We didn’t have any cross words,” he said. “So I’m sorry about that.”

Paul added that the harshest words were reserved for the actual debate.

“The most challenging words were said on stage when not only I, but others, called him on some of the programs in Texas,” he concluded.

Be sure to read the whole thing here.

Team Romney has announced quiet a few endorsements out if New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan, and Maryland in the past week. Please look below the fold for the complete list:

(more…)

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if it would be more accurate to describe that person’s views as mainstream or extreme.

Mitt Romney

• Mainstream 48%
• Extreme 26%
• Not sure 26%

Barack Obama

• Mainstream 44%
• Extreme 44%
• Not sure 12%

Rick Perry

• Mainstream 36%
• Extreme 36%
• Not sure 28%

Michele Bachmann

• Mainstream 27%
• Extreme 51%
• Not sure 22%

Ron Paul

• Mainstream 17%
• Extreme 52%
• Not sure 32%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted September 6-7, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Seventy-two percent (72%) of voters in the president’s party describe his views as mainstream, while 78% of Republicans regard them as extreme. Voters not affiliated with either political party are more evenly divided, with 46% who say his views are mainstream and 40% who say they are extreme.

Tea Party voters overwhelmingly see Obama’s views as extreme (92%) while a majority of non-Tea Party voters (54%) say the opposite.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.