ARG New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 30% [29%] (32%)
• Rick Perry 13% [2%]
• Ron Paul 12% [4%] (8%)
• Jon Huntsman 10% [0%] (0%)
• Michele Bachmann 7% [12%] (1%)
• Herman Cain 4% [4%] (2%)
• Newt Gingrich 4% [7%] (8%)
• Sarah Palin 4% [8%] (2%)
• Rick Santorum 2% [2%] (0%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% [0%] (0%)
• Gary Johnson 0% [0%] (1%)
• Undecided 12% [18%] (8%)

(more…)

Here are where things stand just prior to the Romney/Perry rumble in Tampa tonight (change is from the last update one week ago):

Only candidates who have announced an official candidacy or who have greater than a 3% chance at the nomination are included.

From the Detroit News:

Livonia Rep. Thaddeus McCotter told The Detroit News this afternoon that he is leaving the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

McCotter says he will give his support to former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and will likely run again for the 11th District congressional seat he’s held since 2003.

McCotter began his long-shot bid for the White House in July, billing himself as the voice for a new generation of conservatives. He campaigned on a dramatic reform of Social Security, and a tougher approach to dealings with China.

McCotter is, of course, the candidate who famously declared, “Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama are not rivals, they’re running mates.” Now he is adding his support to Team Romney to take down Rick Perry and Barack Obama.

Gallup has released a poll attempting to gauge the relative support of each of the top candidates. They asked the following questions of each one:

1. Will you definitely vote for this guy?
2. Will you consider voting for this guy?
3. Will you definitely NOT vote for this guy?

Here is the overall results for Obama, Romney, and Perry:

	Will Vote	May Vote	Will NOT vote	Will vote + May vote
Romney	21	41	35	62
Obama	33	21	45	54
Perry	20	33	44	53

Here is the data broken out by party:

	Romney	Obama	Perry
Democrats Will Vote For	2	70	2
Democrats May Vote For	30	20	22
Total Democrats For	32	90	24
Republicans Will Vote For	44	2	41
Republicans May Vote For	46	15	40
Total Republicans For	90	17	81
Independents Will Vote For	23	20	22
Independents May Vote For	47	25	38
Total Independents For	70	45	60

It looks like Obama’s base consists of the Democrats and nobody else. Both Romney and Perry have strong support from Republicans AND Independents. Romney has one out in every  three Democrats considering voting for him, and Perry has one in every four Democrats considering voting for him.

Michigan Research Group Michigan Republican Primary

• Romney – 34%
• Perry – 13%
• Gingrich – 7%
• Paul – 6%
• Cain – 5%
• Bachmann – 3%
• Huntsman – 3%
• McCotter – 2%
• Santorum – 1%
• Undecided – 27%

Among registered Republicans only:

• Romney – 40%
• Perry – 17%
• Gingrich – 8%
• Cain – 7%
• Paul – 5%
• Bachmann – 3%
• Santorum – 2%
• McCotter – 1%
• Huntsman – *
• Undecided – 17%

General Election Matchups:

• Obama – 44%
• Romney – 44%

• Obama – 50%
• Perry – 39%

Survey of 310 possible primary voters (margin of error +/-5.6%), 225 Republicans (margin of error +/-6.5%), and 600 likely general election voters (margin of error +/-4%) was conducted Sept 14-19.

Via Twitter I stumbled upon an article at RickPerry.org and it only took me 2 minutes to find a major flaw in the numbers that blows open Perry’s claim to be the superior job creator. Team Perry responds to a “false, desperate attack” from Mitt’s team that points out while the US added no jobs to the economy in August under Obama (President Zero), Texas actually lost jobs to the tune of minus 1300 under Perry (Governor Sub-Zero).

The tables of data that RickPerry.org provides yield some unintended consequences when placed under the tiniest bit of scrutiny. First, here is the data taken directly from RickPerry.org, though I added a row of data (in red) on the second table for analysis purposes:

While Mitt Romney was governor of Massachusetts (Jan. 2003 – Jan. 2007):

Population change during that time (2002 – 2006):

Now this is not too difficult to figure out, just look a the “change” columns. In Massachusetts during Romney’s tenure the state population only grew by 6000, but in the same time MA added 39,500 jobs added to the private sector. In Texas on the other hand (Perry as Governor), the population grew by a whopping 1.6 million but only added less than half that amount of jobs in the private sector, about 750,000.

What is the end result? Obviously in MA that equals a much lower unemployment rate, but oddly enough Texas’ unemployment rate dropped as well. Does that mean the “other” jobs created were actually created in the government? Perhaps that could be why Texas’ government spending has doubled while Perry has been Governor.

The Big Question for Perry: Sure Texas is creating a lot of jobs, but is that rate high enough to match the growth in population? If not, unemployment rates will not go down.

The Cold Hard Facts: #1-Unemployment in Texas hit 8.5% last month, the highest it has been in 24 years! #2-The state of Texas also happens to be 46th out of 50 in poverty rate – 28% higher than the national average!!

If that is a fantastic record of economic prowess, then I have a Texas-sized bridge I want to sell you.

Factcheck #2: Team Perry calls Romney’s campaign “flailing”, but according to Rasmussen (and backed by other polls) in the space of one month Perry’s lead over Romney has shrunk from 11% to 4%. One does not “flail” when they are edging up in the polls. Perhaps this article by Team Perry is “flailing” as they are now edging downward.

~Nate G.

Bonus: On twitter Dave Weigel jokes: So if Perry is Governor Sub Zero, that makes Romney Governor Scorpion. #getoverhere

I was stumped by this for awhile until I recalled my junior-high Mortal Kombat video game days.

Sub-Zero and Scorpion square off in Mortal Kombat, ie, the GOP Primary

Summit Consulting Group Arizona Republican Primary

• Romney – 31%
• Perry – 25%
• Bachmann – 5%
• Cain – 5%
• Gingrich – 4%
• Paul – 3%
• Huntsman – 2%
• Santorum – 1%
• Undecided – 24%

Survey of 600 likely GOP primary voters was conducted Sept 19-20 and has a margin of error of +/-4%.

Race42012′s Florida presidential debate Open Forum will go live at 8:30pm EST. If you cannot watch it on TV, FOX News will be streaming it live here.

The first truly large-scale ad buy of the 2012 primary season goes to… Ron Paul. Paul will be running an ad focusing on his “work on behalf of military veterans” in all four early states (assuming this means IA, NH, NV, and SC) as well as nationally on Fox News.

Paul’s campaign said similar buys are planned for an ad on foreign policy and an attack ad against Rick Perry in the near future. The campaign told Politico:

Paul senses opportunity at a time when he has cash and the airwaves are mostly devoid of paid media. “We think that now is the time to break through,” Paul political guru Jesse Benton says.

As soon as the ad becomes available, we’ll post it here.

UPDATE: Here it is:

Suffolk University New Hampshire Republican Primary

• Romney – 41% (36)
• Paul – 14% (8)
• Huntsman – 10% (4)
• Perry – 8% (8)
• Palin – 6% (4)
• Bachmann – 5% (11)
• Gingrich – 4% (2)
• Cain – 1% (2)
• Roemer – 1% (0)
• Santorum – 1% (1)

Survey of 400 likely primary voters was conducted Sept 18-20 and has a margin of error of +/-4.9%. Numbers from their previous survey at the end of June are in parentheses.

*Smart* Diplomacy at the UN

*From:Photoblog.MSNBC.msn.com

Quinnipiac Florida Republican Primary

• Perry – 28% (13)
• Romney – 22% (22)
• Palin – 8% (9)
• Cain – 7% (8)
• Gingrich – 7% (4)
• Paul – 6% (9)
• Bachmannn – 5% (6)
• Huntsman – 2% (1)
• Santorum – 2% (1)

If the choice were just between Perry and Romney:

• Perry – 46%
• Romney – 38%

General Election Matchups:

• Romney – 47%
• Obama – 40%

• Obama – 44%
• Perry – 40%

Survey was conducted Sept 14-19 of 374 registered Republicans with a margin of error of +/-5.1% and 1,007 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-3.1%. Numbers from their last poll ending Aug 4, before Perry got in the race, are in parentheses.

Obama’s approval rating in Florida is 39/57. Obama leads Perry among Independents 42-36; Romney leads Obama among Independents 44-35.

Darrell Issa, the chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, will endorse Mitt Romney, while Kansas Governor Sam Brownback will endorse Rick Perry. Both endorsements will officially come today ahead of tonight’s debate.

In a small dose of irony, a day after I discussed the Republican Party’s new opportunity created by Hispanics souring on President Obama, the Mitt Romney campaign released an all-Spanish ad targeted for Florida:

Now, it had room for improvement, but it still represents a step in the right direction for Romney. While a message in Spanish will help with Hispanics, the ad didn’t specifically speak to them, tug at the heartstrings, or engage the viewer on enough of a personal level to warrant significant praise. Still, again, it marks a step in the right direction for Mitt. If he continues a genuine, concerted Hispanic outreach effort, he can minimize his risk of coming off as a hardliner on immigration and reinforcing the suspicious image of the party many Latinos share.

One of the arguments touted by Perry supporters in favor of the Texas governor’s nomination is that Rick Perry supposedly represents the conservative populist wing of the Republican Party, and by “populist,” I am referring to small-p populism, i.e., siding with “We the People” against collective interests that attempt to undermine and co-opt the rights of the folks at the grassroots of society. Perry, say many of his supporters, is one of the few candidates for president with the courage to overturn the apple cart in a way that will break the stranglehold of large interests on Washington and that will restore democracy in America, and actual free markets and capitalism to the American economy. If this were true, Perry might actually be an attractive candidate. But the evidence suggests that this ain’t necessarily so.

Iowans4Palin has published a must-see chart that demonstrates the relationship between the governor’s office in Texas and the corporate interests that currently dominate the Texas economy. This chart is absolutely damning from the point of view of those of us who want to get away from Bush-style bailouts of too-big-to-fail institutions, as well as from legislation like ObamaCare, which fortifies existing companies at the expense of true free market capitalism.

For those who can’t be bothered to click the above link, the chart basically matches up the large corporate donations going into Gov. Perry’s coffers from various donors, with the funds coming out of the pockets of state taxpayers in the form of grants to support business. Interestingly, the corporations receiving the state funds are the same institutions that are funding Gov. Perry’s campaigns.

My point here is not to claim that Gov. Perry is intentionally engaged in what is usually referred to as “crony capitalism.” The reader can take away that message from this set of facts if he or she prefers, but at the very least, Gov. Perry is playing the same sort of game as the Bush and Obama Administrations, governing not as capitalists, but as corporatists, fusing together government and specific large corporate entities and then using taxpayer dollars to prop up those corporations in order to avoid the free market mess that comes with true capitalism.

Corporatism, even when enacted with the best intentions, is the enemy of a free market, as it prevents a free market from truly developing by deciding beforehand who the winners and losers are going to be. The game is rigged, and rigged in a way that benefit those closest to the heart of the governmental-corporate axis. Corporatism is pro-business, but is in no way pro-market. Anyone supporting corporatism is not planning on upending the apple cart, but on replacing the wheels and pushing it forward, full speed ahead.

Corporatism also looks very much like a new sort of feudalism, a form of organization of society that was thought to be long gone. I wrote last year about how both the Bush bailouts and ObamaCare resembled feudalism, with the government as the Crown, making a pact with the Nobles (in this case, big banks, large health insurance companies, etc.), with the Nobles in turn promising to take good care of the Serfs. In case you haven’t figured it out by now, we’re the Serfs. So under ObamaCare, Anthem and Aetna agree to provide health care to all in exchange for a forced customer base, just as a medieval Baron might have agreed to ensure that his Serfs had bread and water in exchange for the Crown fortifying his fiefdom. Government strikes a Faustian bargain with too-big-to-fail institutions while the actual people who were intended to run this country become an afterthought.

Perry appears to be quite comfortable playing the corporatist game too, but that’s not to say that he is alone. Indeed, excepting Ron Paul, pretty much all of the GOP candidates for president are ignoring the populist angle in this election, something that seems surprising given the grassroots angst that naturally exists in a nation with 9 percent unemployment. In early 2010, I was certain that a Republican would emerge as an anti-bailout, anti-ObamaCare, anti-corporatist candidate, challenging the conventional wisdom that the only way forward is to prop up stale, old, existing institutions, instead of letting the market work and letting new players do what the current concoction of government and too-big-to-fail institutions cannot. Other than Ron Paul, the only potential candidate for president addressing this issue is Sarah Palin:

“This is not the capitalism of free men and free markets, of innovation and hard work and ethics, of sacrifice and of risk,” she said of the crony variety. She added: “It’s the collusion of big government and big business and big finance to the detriment of all the rest — to the little guys. It’s a slap in the face to our small business owners — the true entrepreneurs, the job creators accounting for 70 percent of the jobs in America.”

Reaganite journalist Roger Stone, Jr., tweeted that this message reminded him of Reaganism, circa 1976. It’s conservative populism, as even Ralph Nader noted, and the antithesis of Perry’s right-wing corporatism.

Ultimately, there may be a lot of reasons to vote for Rick Perry. But the idea that he is an anti-establishment reformer who is going to take Washington by the horns is simply not supported by the facts. Perry’s reign in Texas has been just as “establishment” as the last decade of Bush-Obama presidencies in Washington. As such, there’s absolutely no reason to suspect that a Perry presidency would be anything other than more of the same.

Mitt Romney announced the endorsement of another U.S. Representative this afternoon, Congressman Wally Herger from California, who is the Chair of the Health Subcommittee:

Announcing his support, Congressman Herger said “Governor Romney’s experience in both the private and public sectors are what make him the best candidate to defeat President Obama in 2012. As governor, he balanced the state’s budget and built up a $2 billion rainy-day fund without raising taxes. That is the kind of experience we need in the White House.”

Romney also announced the endorsement of the RNC Committeewoman from Puerto Rico, Zoraida Fonalledas, along with eleven other endorsements from the territory.

More importantly, though, Romney has spent the day today utilizing a town hall and several appearances from his Florida endorsers to hammer Rick Perry on the issue of social security ahead of tomorrow night’s debate. Romney is wisely staying away from the “Ponzi scheme” language – which I have written here is not the real problem with Perry’s stance – and instead is focusing on Perry’s proposed social security solution: ending social security as a federal program and sending it to the states to take care of.

That is the plan that Governor Perry laid out in his book Fed Up, and what he recommended in several interviews while he was on his book tour in late 2010. And Mitt Romney has six questions as to how exactly Rick Perry would make 50 state-run social security programs work:

1. Constitutionality: Perry has asserted that a federally run Social Security program is unconstitutional. If this remains his position, it suggests that the program must be devolved to the states notwithstanding the advisability of such an approach. The first question in understanding Perry’s approach must be whether he believes there is no choice but to devolve or, alternatively, if he believes it is the right policy solution.

2. Unfunded Liabilities: Devolving the program to the states does not address underlying fiscal challenges. Where a single program once faced possible insolvency, there would now be fifty. How would Perry suggest a state such as Texas address this challenge? Should it raise taxes, reduce benefits, or pursue other types of reform?

3. Trust Fund Accounting: What would happen to the Trust Fund that accrued while the system was in surplus? Interest payments from the fund and draw-down on the principal are crucial funding streams for the national system that are unavailable to the states. How would those funds be equitably allocated to the states?

4. Mobility: How would a state-by-state system accommodate the enormous number of Americans who move across state lines during their lives, and especially as retirement nears? Would each state be responsible for supporting its current disabled and elderly population on its current payroll? Would funds paid into the system in one state follow a resident to another state later in life?

5. State Obligations: Would states be free to forego a pension program altogether? If so, what if any provision would be made for the disabled and elderly in that state? Or would they be expected to move to other states with more generous benefits, inevitably overwhelming those systems?

6. Administration: Would individuals retain national Social Security numbers or would each state administer its own system? Would individuals have any guarantee that commitments made during their working life are honored in retirement? Who would pay for the added expense associated with administering fifty programs instead of one?

Of course, these questions aren’t designed to get real answers from Perry, but to back him into a corner. Perry has already ran away from this position that he laid out less than a year ago, after realizing how toxic it was on a national level. But Romney appears prepared to use Perry’s own words from Fed Up against him on the social security fight for the foreseeable future.

Romney displayed these six questions up on the screen at a town hall meeting he hosted in Miami today, while U.S. Representatives Connie Mack and Tom Rooney and state Senators Thrasher and Flores riffed on the theme across the state as well.

For their part, the Perry campaign shot back that Romney was “sounding like a Democrat, distorting the truth and trying to scare senior citizens.” It’s a fight that isn’t going away anytime soon – especially not by tomorrow night’s debate in Tampa.

As seen in this image, which was posted on Twitter rather than through a traditional press release on Perry’s website:

A great haul for Perry in the vitally important primary state.

UPDATE: It should be noted that the Twitter feed this picture was posted on is from a South Carolina reporter, not from the Perry campaign. Evidently, the Perry campaign sent this out as a hard copy press release, and the reporter, in his haste to be the first to report it, simply snapped a picture of the list and posted it on Twitter. The list has still not appeared on the Perry website yet.

First, a bit of introduction (re-introduction) may be in order. The WordPress system tells me that my last contribution to Race42012.com (beyond this post which Kavon posted a few weeks ago) occurred in 2008.

A lot has changed for me personally since that time which may explain my absence.

After the 2008 election I was contacted by Chuck DeVore who asked me to help him launch his online campaign efforts.  At the time I was 10 years into a career as an Internet consultant mostly in the corporate space.  I promptly left that world to pursue my dream of combining my online professional expertise with my passion for politics.  And it worked!

Since then time I’ve been running RaiseDigital – an online consulting firm helping candidates and non-profits raise money online.  We’ve worked with candidates like Chuck, Joe Miller, Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum, and numerous others.

I’ve stayed aloof from the Presidential side of the equation for obvious reasons – namely, many of them are my clients (or potential clients).

Eventually, I’ll be back in full force but for the moment I thought I’d start contributing on a more regular basis. You can follow me on Twitter @justin_hart or on my personal political blog: iHartPolitics.com.

And with that introduction… let’s dive deep into the latest Ras. poll:

Rasmussen Reports is out with a new national GOP primary poll. A previous poll was conducted in August just days after Rick Perry announced his candidacy.

Looking at the detailed demographics here’s what Ras. says: (more…)

PPP (D) Massachusetts 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 53% [57%] (52%)
• Mitt Romney 40% [37%] (43%)

• Barack Obama 55%
• Ron Paul 30%

• Barack Obama 58%
• Rick Perry 32%

• Barack Obama 58% [63%] (57%)
• Newt Gingrich 31% [27%] (33%)

• Barack Obama 59%
• Michele Bachmann 28%

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 36% of the vote in Massachusetts. In 2004, George W. Bush received 37% of the vote in MA.

(more…)

McClatchy-Marist 2012 GOP Nomination Survey

• Rick Perry 20% [18%] {13%}
• Rudy Giuliani 14% [9%] {13%} (9%)
• Mitt Romney 13% [21%] {19%} (18%) [20%] {25%}
• Sarah Palin 13% [10%] {11%} (8%) [13%] {18%}
• Michele Bachmann 6% [8%] {8%} (3%)
• Newt Gingrich 6% [2%] {2%} (4%) [10%] {16%}
• Ron Paul 6% [3%] {5%} (7%)
• Herman Cain 4% [6%] {5%} (2%)
• Rick Santorum 2% [3%] {1%} (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% [1%] {2%} (1%)
• Undecided 14% [14%] {15%} (11%) [14%] {13%}

If Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin don’t run

• Rick Perry 30%
• Mitt Romney 22%
• Michele Bachmann 12%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Newt Gingrich 6%
• Herman Cain 5%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Undecided 15%

(more…)

The Romney campaign announced the endorsement of former Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman this morning:

“The United States is facing an important moment in our nation’s history,” said Senator Coleman. “Whether it is turning around our struggling economy or maintaining our relationships with international allies, the next President must have the experience and leadership to keep America strong at home and abroad. Electing someone who has not been tested by the fire of experience results in failure. The last three years have proven that. Throughout his life, Mitt Romney has displayed the leadership that will be needed to get our economy back on track and to preserve, and in some cases mend, our relationships with allies around the world. As a strong supporter of Israel, I am also confident that he is the best candidate to restore America’s relationship with Israel.”

This endorsement is important for two reasons. First, Coleman originally endorsed Rudy Giuliani in the last primary. After Giuliani dropped out, Coleman shifted his endorsement to John McCain, bypassing Romney both times. Romney has won him over in this contest. And secondly, Coleman is one of the most prominent Jewish Republicans, signalling Romney’s outreach to that group of voters – which includes attacking Obama on his weak record and rhetoric on Israel.

From the official release:

Gov. Rick Perry’s Jobs and Fiscal Conservatism Message Earns 27 New Hampshire Lawmaker Endorsements

Legislative endorsements triple Mitt Romney’s Granite State support

AUSTIN – Gov. Rick Perry today announced support from 27 New Hampshire state representatives, adding to his strong grassroots and conservative political support in the Granite State.

“Gov. Perry’s record creating the nation’s best pro-jobs environment and commitment to get America working again is earning strong support from New Hampshire Republican leaders,” said Perry campaign manager Rob Johnson. “These 27 New Hampshire legislative endorsements triple the number of legislative endorsements announced by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney last week, and he’s been running for president continually for four years.”

The following New Hampshire state representatives support Gov. Perry’s candidacy for President:

• Rep. Pamela Tucker (R-Greenland), Deputy Speaker
• Rep. Pete Silva (R-Nashua), Majority Whip
• Rep. Dick Hinch (R-Merrimack)
• Rep. Gregory Sorg (R-Easton)
• Rep. Andrew Renzullo (R-Hudson)
• Rep. Ralph Boehm (R-Litchfield)
• Rep. Larry Gagne (R-Manchester)
• Rep. Win Hutchinson (R-Manchester)
• Rep. Carlos Gonzalez (R-Manchester)
• Rep. Kevin Avard (R-Nashua)
• Rep. Fred Rice (R-Hampton)
• Rep. Ken Weyler (R-Kingston)
• Rep. David Lundgren (R-Londonderry)
• Rep. Will Smith (R-New Castle)
• Rep. Norman Major (R-Plaistow)
• Rep. Al Baldassaro (R-Londonderry)
• Rep. Mike Kappler (R-Raymond)
• Rep. Warren Groen (R-Rochester)
• Rep. Spec Bowers (R-Georges Mills)
• Rep. Tom Keane (R-Bow)
• Rep. John Hikel (R-Goffstown)
• Rep. Frank McCarthy (R-Conway)
• Rep. David Bates (R-Windham)
• Rep. Moe Villeneuve (R-Bedford)
• Rep. Elaine Swinford (R-Center Barnstead)
• Rep. Randall Brownrigg (R-Hudson)
• Rep. Edmond Gionet (R-Lincoln)

Gov. Mitt Romney announced he had gained the support of nine state representatives last week.

“Gov. Perry has the strongest record of any candidate in the race of creating an environment ripe for job growth. While Obama has raised taxes and uncertainty, Gov. Perry has balanced budgets, signed aggressive tort reform, and worked to keep job-killing burdens off of employers,” said Rep. Dick Hinch (R-Merrimack), a former supporter of Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.  “Granite Staters know the country is on the wrong track. We need a candidate whose record can contrast clearly with the president’s, and Gov. Perry’s record of leadership can put America on the right track and Americans back to work.”

These endorsements follow previous announcements of support for Gov. Perry by former U.S. Senator Gordon Humphrey; former U.S. Congressman Chuck Douglas; and 2010 GOP Gubernatorial nominee John Stephen.

“We are honored to have the support of these men and women who represent and understand the sentiments of voters across the state,” said Paul Young, a senior advisor to the Perry campaign in New Hampshire. “They know that people want more jobs and economic prosperity, less taxes and government interference, and they recognize that Gov. Perry can deliver on that promise.”

Rasmussen Reports National Repbulican Primary

• Perry – 28% (29)
• Romney – 24% (18)
• Gingrich – 9% (5)
• Bachmann – 8% (13)
• Cain – 7% (6)
• Paul – 6% (9)
• Santorum – 3% (1)
• Huntsman – 2% (1)
• McCotter – 1% (0)
• Undecided – 11% (16)

Survey of 1,000 likely primary voters was conducted September 19 and has a margin of error of +/-3%. Numbers from their poll ending August 15 are in parentheses.

War Room Logistics Florida Republican Primary

• Romney – 25.0%
• Perry – 24.7%
• Gingrich – 8.7%
• Paul – 7.5%
• Bachmann – 5.2%
• Cain – 4.9%
• Huntsman – 2.4%
• Santorum – 0.9%
• Undecided – 20.6%

Florida General Election Matchups

• Romney – 44.7%
• Obama – 43.5%

• Obama – 47.7%
• Perry – 39.8%

• Obama – 49.2%
• Gingrich – 37.3%

• Obama – 49.9%
• Bachmann – 37.1%

Survey of 572 likely Republican primary voters (margin of error +/-4%) and 1,406 likely general election voters (margin of error +/-3%) was taken September 20. For more general election matchups, click the link above.

ABC News/Washington Post 2012 Favorability Survey

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 33% / 31% {+2%}
• Barack Obama 47% / 46% {+1%}
• Rick Perry 23% / 31% {-8%}

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 78% / 19% {+69%}
• Mitt Romney 20% / 43% {-23%}
• Rick Perry 12% / 44% {-32%}

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 55% / 19% {+36%}
• Rick Perry 43% / 11% {+32%}
• Barack Obama 17% / 80% {-63%}

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 35% / 30% {+5%}
• Barack Obama 42% / 48% {-6%}
• Rick Perry 23% / 36% {-13%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 34% / 28% {+6%}
• Barack Obama 47% / 45% {+2%}
• Rick Perry 17% / 32% {-15%}

Survey of 1,013 adults was conducted September 14-18, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

McClatchy has published some more data from Marist Polls beyond that which was released earlier today.

Here is some of the data given out. First the head-to-head vs. Obama numbers for several Republicans:

	Obama	Candidate	Margin
Giuliani	42	49	+7
Romney	46	44	-2
Palin	49	44	-5
Perry	50	41	-9
Bachmann	53	40	-13

From these numbers, Rudy Giuliani would appear to be the best candidate against Obama. Romney is essentially tied against him. Perry is nearly ten points behind the President, while Bachmann continues to trail such a match-up by double digits.

The most interesting result, however, has to be that for Sarah Palin. After trailing Obama by twenty and more points in various polls for quite some time, she is now within five points of Obama. In fact according to Marist, she does better than either Perry or Bachmann. Not bad, Sarah. Not bad at all. You go girl.

Unfortunately there is another set of numbers which aren’t so good for her. By a ratio of 72 to 24 — a 48 point difference — Republicans and Republican leaning Independents do NOT want Sarah to run. That makes winning the nomination for a chance to take on Obama a bit problematic for her.

She is not alone in that respect. The man who actually leads Obama head-to-head, Rudy Giuliani, is also not wanted by a majority of Republicans. The ratio against him running is 58 to 32 percent — a twenty-six point margin. In other words nearly two out of every three Republicans want to see Rudy remain on the sidelines; which is still better than the nearly three out of every four Republicans that don’t want to see Sarah Palin in the race. Ouch! That is downright brutal.

Here are the horse race poll numbers provided in the same poll:

Perry	30
Romney	22
Bachmann	12
Paul	7
Gingrich	6
Cain	5
Santorum	2
Huntsman	1

McClatchy states that, “…Palin and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani — would trail Perry but jump into the top tier along with Romney and Bachmann…“, but they give no figures.

This survey of 1,042 adults was conducted on Sept. 13-14. Adults 18 and older residing in the continental United States were interviewed by telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the nation. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. There are 825 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There are 317 Republicans and Republican leaning independents. The results for this subset are statistically significant within plus or minus 5.5 percentage points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

His his indispensable column The Fix today, Chris Cillizza analyzed President Obama’s declining support among Hispanics:

In recent Gallup polling, his approval rating among Latinos dipped to 48 percent — the lowest mark of his presidency and a significant drop-off from the 60 percent approval among the group he carried as recently as January. Obama’s approval rating among Hispanics is now just seven points higher than it is among the general public in Gallup data, a major decline from earlier in his term.

And polling conducted by Resurgent Republic, a conservative-aligned group, shows Obama under-performing his 2008 totals in key swing states with large Hispanic populations.

In Florida, where Obama won 57 percent of the Latino vote in 2008, 48 percent of Hispanics say he deserves a second term. Ditto in New Mexico, where Obama carried Latinos with 69 percent but now sees just 58 percent of that voting bloc willing to say he should be reelected. (Worth noting: In Colorado, Obama’s numbers have held steady among Hispanics.)

However, Cillizza also notes that Republicans cannot simply assume this will lead to gains in their support from Hispanic voters:

Obama allies insist that stories about defections within his base are overblown, noting that although Hispanics may not be happy with everything the president has done (or, more accurately, not done) they will support him when he is matched against his GOP rival, who will almost certainly take positions that are anathema to most Latinos.

Joel Benenson, Obama’s lead pollster, pointed to an August tracking poll from ImpreMedia/Latino Decisions that showed that 72 percent of Hispanic voters said Republicans either “didn’t care” or were “hostile” to the Hispanic community as evidence that Obama’s number is likely to improve once Republicans pick their nominee.

I consider this absolutely key to the next election (not to mention elections down the road); in order to make real headway into the Democratic Party’s considerable advantage among Latinos, Republicans must soften their tone toward them. Now, this need not necessitate amnesty or even comprehensive immigration reform appearing in the next GOP platform; in actuality, it concerns tone.

As the poll cited in the excerpt shows, Hispanics apparently shy away from the GOP not strictly because of policy differences but because of the heated and sometimes angry rhetoric many in the party employ when addressing immigration makes the party seem “hostile” to Latinos.

As history has shown, Republican candidates, even of the presidential variety, need not resign themselves to less than 40% of the Hispanic vote. For all his faults, President Bush did understand the importance of Hispanic outreach, and the results showed. And for some sense of just how far the party has come, take a look at this clip from a 1980 primary debate between Presidents Reagan and Bush 41:

So, you had both candidates employing positive, compassionate, inclusive language and the modern commander-in-chief most revered in Republican circles openly suggesting a guest worker program. What happens nowadays when a presidential candidate tries to adopt the same rhetorical approach? They get raked across the coals:

Can we really blame Latinos for perceiving Republicans as “hostile” to them when they see things like this? The opportunity to expand our tent exists. We just need to do what it takes.

PPP (D) Missouri 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Rick Perry 31%
• Mitt Romney 15% (13%) {13%} [14%] (22%)
• Newt Gingrich 10% (10%) {19%} [15%]
• Herman Cain 10%
• Michele Bachmann 9% (9%)
• Ron Paul 8% (6%) {7%} [5%]
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 14% (9%) {10%} [9%]

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Rick Perry 55%
• Mitt Romney 27%
• Not sure 19%

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Marist/McClatchy Political Survey

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 39% {44%} [45%]
• Disapprove 52% {46%} [47%]

Among Democrats

• Approve 71% {74%} [81%]
• Disapprove 20% {21%} [12%]

Among Republicans

• Approve 7% {11%} [12%]
• Disapprove 87% {83%} [84%]

Among Independents

• Approve 32% {38%} [39%]
• Disapprove 57% {46%} [51%]

(more…)