WSJ has the story:

A determined cadre of Republican donors is casting wishful eyes on New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in an 11th-hour push to persuade the former prosecutor to enter the 2012 presidential race.

The drive reflects lingering discontent in some GOP quarters over the current crop of GOP candidates, particularly since the recent stumbles of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has led in national polls of Republican voters.

Mr. Christie’s aides say the governor hasn’t budged from his months-long insistence that he won’t enter the presidential fray, despite what one described as a “relentless” stream of calls over the last week from prominent Republicans urging him to run.

“None of that triggers any new thinking on his part,” said one Christie adviser. “He’s very polite to these people: ‘Thank you for calling. That’s very flattering. I’ll let you know.’ And I think they interpret that, ‘Ah-ha! A rethinking.’ “

Be sure to read the entire piece here.

Roanoke College Virginia Survey

• Romney – 45%
• Obama – 37%

• Perry – 42%
• Obama – 40%

• Obama – 43%
• Paul – 33%

• Obama – 46%
• Bachmann – 35%

• Obama – 50%
• Palin – 31%

Obama’s job approval rating in Virginia is a horrible 39/54.

Also in this poll: Allen leads Kaine by a slim 42-39 margin in the Senate race to replace Democrat Jim Webb.

…or-Perry Still Doesn’t Get It

Here is the Perry Campaign’s latest ad:

I see three problems with this ad:

(1) It tries to establish the meme that Romney is a flip-flopper. Since nearly every single voter is already well aware of that accusation, it is a waste of effort. Is the Perry Campaign that out of ideas?

(2) It is a bit dull. It has all the pizazz of a lecture on drying paint.

(3) It illustrates what has been a major Perry problem since day one. He almost always frames his campaign as a contest between him and Mitt Romney. Even during the last few weeks where he was the undisputed frontrunner, he seemed to focus his energy on Mitt, not Obama.

Meanwhile, Romney been concentrating on Obama. Even while Perry has been the King-of-the-hill, Mitt focused on the President. True, he did launch an attack or two Perry’s way, but he always tried to couch it in terms of defeating Obama.

The minute that it became obvious that Perry had imploded last Thursday, Mitt dropped his attacks. Friday at Mackinaw Island, MI — the very day after Perry imploded at the debate — Mitt spoke for thirty minutes without even an oblique reference to his chief rival for the nomination.

The result of all this: People think of Perry in terms of contesting Romney; they think of Romney in terms of contesting Obama. That has to be to Romney’s advantage.

As the presidential debate season continues, it is becoming clearer that Governor Rick Perry’s sudden rise in the polls after the Iowa Straw Poll has been a “bubble.” Once again, former Governor Mitt Romney seems about to take the lead in the polls, even as he already leads in many vital state polls. More importantly, he has seemed strong in the debate confrontations with Mr. Perry, and maintained the stage presence of someone in charge. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, who herself enjoyed a brief “bubble” rise in the polls lading up to her win of the Iowa Straw Poll, has faded not only in public opinion surveys, but in the public policy arena as well. The departure of Ed Rollins from an active role in her campaign was an ominous sign.

The debates have also produced two other winners. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich continues to be the most impressive GOP debater, producing some of the warmest and most positive responses from debate live audiences. His reputation as the brightest candidate has been reinforced, but his desire to be “the comeback kid of 2012? is hindered by earlier campaign mistakes, weak campaign funding, and a bias (unfounded) that he is either too old or a figure from the past. Herman Cain has injected a vivid personality into the debates, and his business experience has enabled him to make many cogent comments that do not have the usual “political” veneer. But Mr. Cain has a small campaign organization and little money to transform his positive debate persona into a major candidacy.

One more time, we hear rumors of former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska or current Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey entering the contest, but it is late in the game. It might be possible, as I have suggested, for Mr. Christie to become a force in the campaign, provided he had the campaign funds and the time to spend introducing himself to voters nationally, but time is running out as we approach the Iowa caucus early next year, and the end of the most important part of the debate season.

This leaves us with the perception that Mr. Romney is beginning to pull away for the nomination. Of course, until we have actual voter results in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and Florida, any judgment remains speculative. But the fact remains that Mr. Romney has so far seemed to run an almost flawless early campaign. Even in 2008, when he was the runner-up to John McCain, Mr. Romney looked the part, but now in 2011, he more and more sounds the part. He has handled the challenges of Mrs. Bachmann and Mr. Perry with self-confidence and aplomb. He is very well-funded, and so far is easily winning the contest of endorsements from Republican officials across the nation. His rivals, when they challenged him in the debates, have found him to be a quick and tough opponent.

So what are the Mr Romney’s real drawbacks at the stage of the nominating campaign? They appear to be the same drawbacks that plagued him in 2008, and at the outset of the 2012 campaign. His seemingly more moderate record as governor of Massachusetts has not excited the increasingly conservative (and Tea Party) Republican base. But that base produced the Bachmann and Perry “bubbles,” and most Republicans of all political stripes seem to place the highest priority in defeating President Obama’s re-election. Mr. Romney’s Mormon religion has often been cited as a political problem, especially in the South, but again, most conservatives are unlikely to vote for Mr. Obama over Mr. Romney. Then there is danger that if Mr. Romney were nominated, a third party conservative would run and dilute his vote. The dilution, in that case, might happen, but the result would be the re-election of Barack Obama, a result few if any conservatives want. Finally, some consider Mr. Romney’s long business experience to be primarily limited to “turnaround ” situations, and not to the general management of government.

This latter criticism could be, however, Mr. Romney’ greatest strength. As the United States economy continue to sink, as unemployment remains high and chronic, as American power and influence continues to wane around the world, it might seem that a “turn-around” expert is just what the country needs.

In January, 1992, Governor Bill Clinton’s campaign for the Democratic nomination seemed stalled. He had been the frontrunner, but many in his party thought he had too many political drawbacks to successfully challenge incumbent President George H.W. Bush. After the New Hampshire primary, however, Mr. Clinton asserted he was the “comeback kid,” and the rest in history.

If indeed Mr. Romney holds off the challenge of Mr. Perry, after doing the same to Mrs. Bachmann’s challenge, he would have made his own comeback. Much would take place between then and election day, and anything can happen, but as matters are going now, there may be a powerful appeal that could be made for a leader in 2012 who would turn America’s problems around.

________________________________________________________________________________

-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site, The Prairie Editor Blog.

Well, this is going to throw a monkey wrench into the whole early calendar thing:

Colorado Republican leaders say you can expect to see a lot more of the GOP presidential candidates in 2012. On Saturday, party leaders switched Colorado’s caucuses from March 6 to Feb. 7, the day after Iowa’s first-in-the-nation primary. GOP leaders said it means Colorado will have prominence in the election like never before.

All those who think New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida are going to be okay with this, raise your hands… yeah, not so much.

Colorado is utilizing a loophole in the RNC rules to not get penalized for the move, too: much like Nevada’s caucus last cycle*, the Colorado precinct caucuses are technically nonbinding. The delegates chosen on Feb 7 will go to the County/District Conventions in April but are not bound to support a specific candidate. However, that does not stop the media from reporting the results of the caucus — like they did four years ago on February 5, 2008, for instance — and the public from seeing the headline that a candidate has won another state.

If there is any one candidate who this move particularly favors, it’s got to be Mitt Romney – who lost just 4 of the state’s 64 counties in 2008.

*One of the changes Nevada has made for 2012 is to make their caucus binding.

With a big win at the Presidency 5 conference straw poll in Florida and, in my opinion, his debate victory on Thursday, there’s a big opportunity for Herman Cain. As Perry continues to falter with poor debate performances and conservative primary voters remain unconvinced of Romney, there is a huge space that can be filled by Mr. Herman Cain. Bachmann tried to fill that space,  but her campaign has been unwinding daily. Paul never will gain traction. Ever. So, again, this is Cain’s time to shine.

Jonathan at Race42012, not always the biggest cheerleader for Herman Cain, had the following to say:

Which brings us back to Herman Cain. The defeat of Perry and the collapse of Bachmann are creating an opening on the right of the GOP. Conservative unease with Perry and Bachmann is causing many conservative and Tea Party Republicans to look for an alternative. Cain’s oratorical skills, his 9-9-9 plan, and even his lack of a record to attack are making him an appealing choice for many Republicans. To those who dismiss the thought of Cain making an impact in the race, remember that the GOP does have a spot in its heart for non-elected outsiders, and they can become serious, strong contenders (see Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes).

Gallup has shown consistently that Cain has had the highest “positive intensity score” among the current GOP contenders. What does that mean? That means that his current support base is fervent in their support of Cain. That will be a good place for him to build on if he hopes to capitalize on this opportunity.

As an early Cain supporter I must say, it’s about time. Cain has had difficulty finding his place with inconsistent debate performances following his first boost and no specifics on policy. This last debate, he fixed that with some very specific policy ideas and one of the best debate performances of the night. If he can expand on the meat and fundraise, Cain could become a big contender. I’ve mentioned before that the “competent businessman” is an archetype that many Republican voters like, myself included. Here’s what I said on the matter:

The competent businessman is a candidate that we sometimes see in Republican primaries. They’re conservative in rhetoric and have experience in the private sector dealing with budgets. This is a draw to conservatives. Why? Well, first – they have proven experience dealing with budgets, spending, etc. This executive experience is incredibly useful when going into the public sector in such roles as County Executive, Governor, and President. Even at a small scale, that’s more than most members of Congress will ever have. That and small scale budgetary issues still apply to the larger scale of the government.

Next, these competent businessmen have seen the problems that conservatives keep complaining about. All the red tape, all the government involvement in business, all the increased taxes, all the problems small businesses face – the competent executive candidate felt that pain, dealt with those issues, seen what they can do. The competent executive coped with them and saw that they were destructive firsthand. With their own experience, they are able to seriously discuss these issues not from a theoretical standpoint, but from a practical one. That resonates among voters who are able to relate more when a candidate has a personal story than when they talk 100% in axioms…One of the other draws, at least for me, to the competent businessman is that they prove the American Dream is real. Especially those success stories, such as those of Herman Cain and Brian Murphy, who came from nothing to the place they are at now, is inspiring. It reaffirms the conservative mindset that if you play by the rules and work your hardest, you can achieve anything. Their lives, often times, help prove that.

It’s true now as it was then. Now the question many have asked is, what about Mitt Romney? Mitt Romney is a competent businessman candidate. There’s a difference – Romney has a record in public office that is not without blemish. Romneycare is a stain on his record that makes it difficult for him to challenge the President on health care. His fierce defense of Romneycare makes it even more difficult and come across disingenuous. Cain does not have that problem. Cain does not have a record, which is both a blessing and a curse.

This is the time for Cain’s campaign to take off. This is the time for Herman Cain to step up. He will get grilled more. He will get critically examined more. That’s good, it will make him a better candidate in the general election if he can handle it. And if he can and proves to become the new “anti-Romney” candidate, his oratory skills and personal story will resonate in both the primary and general election.

_______________________________________________________

-Matt Newman is a conservative blogger from Maryland who blogs at Old Line Elephant / Pundit League and Tweets far too often.

The results from Presidency 5 have shocked the political world. Businessman Herman Cain, who was once thought to be on the verge of dropping out of the race, roared back to life with his victory in Orlando. This win will help propel Cain back into the Republican consciousness. And it couldn’t come at a better time for him.

Rick Perry’s recent troubles have been discussed long and often here so I won’t go into them again but suffice to say, it’s been a rough time for the Texas Governor. Conservatives have started to feel that Perry that he’s not the White Knight that they wanted. However, the other candidate thought to be challenging Perry for the right, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, has seen her campaign collapse. Ever since Perry jumped into the race, Bachmann has struggled to regain her momentum. Her flop over the vaccine issue, her lackluster debate performances and her last place showing at the Presidency 5 Straw Poll all appear to show a campaign that is nearing the end of the line.

Which brings us back to Herman Cain. The defeat of Perry and the collapse of Bachmann are creating an opening on the right of the GOP. Conservative unease with Perry and Bachmann is causing many conservative and Tea Party Republicans to look for an alternative. Cain’s oratorical skills, his 9-9-9 plan, and even his lack of a record to attack are making him an appealing choice for many Republicans. To those who dismiss the thought of Cain making an impact in the race, remember that the GOP does have a spot in its heart for non-elected outsiders, and they can become serious, strong contenders (see Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes).

As we wait to see if the last two undecided holdouts of Christie and Palin to make their choice, there is a festering unease on the right. Dissatisfaction with Perry, distrust of Romney, and Bachmann’s fading effort have left an opening for one of the lower-tier candidates to step up and become the anti-Perry, anti-Romney candidate. And if he seizes the opportunity that Florida has provided him, it might be Herman Cain.

The Michigan GOP held it’s Mackinac Island conference this weekend. While there, they held a quick straw poll. 681 votes were cast. Here are the results:

• Romney — 51
• Perry — 17
• Cain — 9
• Paul — 8
• Bachmann — 4
• Gingrich — 4
• Santorum — 3
• Huntsman — 2

The only real surprise for me here is the poor showing of fellow mid-westerner Michele Bachman. You would think that she would have broken five percent at least.

Both Romney and Perry worked the conference. They each addressed the crowd last night. Romney, as usual, focused his energy on defeating Obama and denounced the President’s leadership. Perry, as befitting one who is no longer the frontrunner, took subtle digs at Romney during his remarks.

One anecdote from the conference as reported in the National Journal:

Romney seized home field advantage in his remarks Saturday night. He charmed the crowd with inside references to Michigan (“I like people who, when you ask them where you’re from, they hold up their hand”) and an endearing moment with his wife, Ann. As the Romneys stood side by side during Mrs. Romney’s brief remarks, members of the audience began tapping their wine glasses with silverware, a wedding tradition that calls for a kiss from the bride and groom.

Romney at first looked puzzled then said, “Oh!” – and gave his wife a quick kiss.

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

How far will Perry fall in the polls, following this most recent debate?  How high will Gingrich, Cain, Romney, and Johnson rise (I assume we’ll be seeing his name return to some of the polls now)?  Did Bachmann, Huntsman, and Paul help themselves or hurt themselves on Thursday?  How much fall-out will there be from Santorum failing to denounce the booing of Army soldier Stephen Hill during the debate when he had the chance (and how much do people believe Santorum that apparently everyone in the auditorium heard the booing except him?–must’ve been some weird acoustics)?  Where would Chris Christie start out in the polls, if he were to enter (and could an overly harsh remark, or a blip in his health, send his poll numbers plummeting at a moment’s notice)?

I had to share this:

The Perry campaign cast their disappointing finish as a resounding victory over Romney, Perry’s top rival for the GOP nomination.

“It’s a devastating loss for Mitt Romney, who has been campaigning for president for the last five and a half years,” said Perry spokesman Mark Miner. “We have only been in this race for five and a half weeks. Mitt Romney still cannot resonate with conservative voters, especially in Florida.”

Okay.

You know. After the horrendous debate performance last Thursday, the drop in the polls Friday, and the loss by 22% this Saturday in a straw poll in which Rick had pulled out all the stops, I would have thought that the Perry Campaign’s number #1 priority would have been to try to re-establish some of their lost credibility.

Apparently I was mistaken.

***Update***

A Presidential candidate simply has to have credibility. If no one can take them seriously, they are doomed.

Rick Perry’s campaign seems to be working overtime at destroying theirs. Their stock in trade appears to be over-the-top rhetoric, the more bellicose the better. They are in desperate need of finding someone who will make sure that their public statements will pass the laugh test. This is especially urgent since Thursday when Perry’s limitations were laid bare for the whole world to see.

If they cannot succeed in getting people to take them seriously again, they are history. They will end up following the trajectory of the rise and fall of Donald Trump earlier this year.

The question is, do they not know this? Do they not understand the damage issuing absurd statements such as the above has on their credibility? Do they not see the danger?

This latest official release from their campaign suggests that they don’t.

…or, What the Game of Chess Can Teach Us About Politics.

Many Republicans and conservatives have been searching for a candidate to knock Mitt Romney out of the race. They cannot figure out why none of current ones has really going after Romney for his reputation for flip-flopping and his legacy of RomneyCare. They wonder, “Why won’t anyone attack him on these points? And when they do, why do they make such a mess of it?”

To answer those questions, let us turn to the game of chess.

There are several fundamental concepts that every beginning chess player must learn if he hopes to ever become any good at the game. The first one is quite simple: the players alternate moves. First White gets to move, then Black gets to play. Then White makes a move, then Black, then White, then Black, and so on. This simple fact has profound implications that many beginning players fail to grasp. One of these is that whatever you do, your opponent gets his chance to respond to it.

Another basic concept that many beginning players never seem to grasp the implications of is that there are two players in the game. Each one is attempting to win the game. This means at its most fundamental level that while you are plotting to defeat your opponent, your opponent is doing the same thing but from the opposite point of view.

This leads to a third and perhaps most important concept, the one that separates the beginner from the player. If the beginner never learns it, he will never ever be any good at chess. Oh sure, he will manage to win games against other beginners, but it will be almost impossible for him to defeat an opponent who has grasped this concept. The concept that separates the players from the beginners is this: In order to win against an opponent of any real skill, you must play his game as well as your own.

What do I mean by that? It’s simple. The player of White must look at the board as if he were the player of Black, and the player of Black must look at the board as if he were the player of White. White must ask himself, “If I were Black, how would I play this position in order to defeat White (me)?” Black must ask himself, “If I were White, how would I play this position in order to defeat Black (me)?”

This affects the way you play the game, as you can imagine. For instance, it will tend to keep you from immediately seizing upon what appears at first glance to be a good line of play without thoroughly considering what your opponent might do in response. You end up constantly asking yourself, “How will my opponent respond?” And most importantly you must ask, “Will his response weaken my game?”  If the answer to the latter is affirmative, you must seek another line of play.

One common mistake beginning players make all the time is to force their opponents into a better position. The player will often see an easy way to threaten one of his opponent’s pieces. Threats are good, so the player immediately attacks the piece. The opponent has to respond. What often happens in games involving beginners is the opponent will then move his piece away to a different, but better square.  This results at the very least in a net gain for their opponent.

***

What does this have to do with the search for the Romney-slayer, the one that will go nose-to-nose and toe-to-toe against Mitt Romney and destroy him by attacking his flip-flops and RomneyCare?

Consider for a moment. Everyone who seriously competes for the Presidency of the United States at this level must be very good at political chess.  Otherwise, they would never have gotten to this point. All the poor players have been weeded out long before.

The good players place themselves in the other person’s shoes. They consider how THEY would respond to the attack that they are thinking about launching. If they cannot see their attack as a sure-fire dunk, they are going to be reluctant to try it. And if they foresee a response that would make their opponent’s position even stronger than before, they will be loath to chance it.

The last debate showed a great example of this. Romney was attacked on RomneyCare. This “forced” Romney to defend it. In the focus group afterward, there were a number of people who stated that this was the first time they had heard Mitt explain MassCare, and they were completely satisfied with what they heard. They no longer saw a problem with it. The bottom line: Romney was able to strengthen his position by being “forced” to defend MassCare by an ill-advised attack on it.

Think back to the second debate, the first one in New Hampshire and the first which Mitt Romney participated in. Remember when the moderator opened up the floor and practically begged for someone, anyone to attack Romney on RomneyCare, and none of the candidates bit?. After a few seconds of silence, Herman Cain finally said, “Case closed”.

There were good reasons for that. Do any of you honestly think that those guys — good political chess players all — would have passed up a golden opportunity like that if they hadn’t already carefully weighed Romney’s possible responses, and had not already foreseen results similar to what happened last Thursday?

And as to attacking Romney on his “flip-flops”, name one politician and/or businessman who has accomplished anything worthwhile who hasn’t modified his stance on something, either as new facts became known, or as circumstances have changed, or who hasn’t given up something they wanted in order to get something they wanted more? All Mitt has to do if so attacked is point out where his attacker has done the very same thing, and then his attacker is immediately placed on the defensive trying to explain why it was okay for him to change his stance, but not okay for Romney to do the exact same thing. Good luck in trying to do THAT without appearing to be a hypocrite. It is such an obvious response that just thinking about it the other night unnerved poor Rick Perry when he attempted to confront Romney with his “flip-flops”. Rick could see such an obvious response coming from a mile away. The thought of it caused him to stammer and stutter. Knowingly setting yourself up to get pummeled on live national TV tends to do that to people.

So if you are one of those people frustrated that none of the candidates are really going after Romney on “flip-flops” and RomneyCare, you might as well learn to live with it because it is highly doubtful anyone credible is going to do it. They are all too good of political chess players to make that mistake. The best they can do is obliquely reference them and hope Mitt’s reputation will do the rest.

Presidency 5 is in the history books and it certainly provided a surprise. Herman Cain won a huge victory, taking over 37% of the vote in the Florida Straw Poll. Here are some final thoughts on the past few days:

1.) The win by Herman Cain has been something that’s been building for the last 3 days. It started with his solid debate performance on Thursday. Friday, when CPAC FL was going on, Cain’s speech helped crystalize the favorable impression he gained from Thursday. When he stopped at his campaign booth to sign autographs, there was a huge crowd waiting for him. By the time he electrified the delegates this afternoon, I along with several of the other delegates I talked to all thought he would win the Straw Poll. It was very interesting to watch as the momentum seemed to almost physically shift in Cain’s direction over the course of Presidency 5

2.) As for the talk about Perry or Romney supporters urging their people to vote for Cain, here’s an anecdote. I talked with a Perry supporter who said that they voted for Cain not because of some tactical voting, but because they liked what Cain had to say. The Romney people I talked to general seemed to want to stick by their man, but there could’ve been tactical voting by some I didn’t get to (after all, it’s hard to talk to every supporter of every candidate).

3.) The most moving moment of the past three days was this afternoon’s tribute to former Republican Party of Florida Chairman David Bitner. Chairman Bitner tragically passed away from Lou Gehrig’s disease a few weeks ago and RPOF put together a nice video tribute. Mrs. Bitner also made some brief remarks that were very nice. Chairman Bitner worked very hard to bring this event together so it was a shame he wasn’t able to be here to see it.

4.) Michele Bachmann’s rapidly fading campaign seems to have reached rock bottom here in Florida. The Minnesotan won a pathetic 40 votes (1.5%) and she wasn’t missed.

5.) Overall, I thoroughly enjoyed Presidency 5 and I think RPOF learned a lot about running an event like this, which will be a big help when the Republican National Convention is held next year in Tampa. The Florida GOP has held “Presidency” events in every open GOP primary since 1980 with the exception of 2000. Here’s hoping we don’t have to have another Presidency event down here until 2020.

Fla straw poll: Cain 37 % Perry 15 % Romney 14 % Santorum 11 % Paul 10 % Gingrich 8 % Huntsman 2 % Bachmann 1 %

Mitt was in Indianapolis yesterday:

INDIANAPOLIS (WANE) – Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney made a campaign swing through Indianapolis Friday night …

For about a half hour, he talked to a crowd of Republicans at the JW Marriott downtown.

Romney spent the better part of his time hammering President Obama, accusing the president of hurting the American economy by creating uncertainty with his policies on everything from health care reform to new financial regulation.

“We can deal with bad news. Businesses encounter bad news all the time. What we can’t deal with as entrepreneurs and innovators is uncertainty, and virtually everything the president did increased uncertainty in this country,” said Romney.

Romney also said Obama’s policies have generally been harmful to time-honored fundamentals of the country’s economy like capitalism and free enterprise.

…

The most interesting part of Romney’s visit might’ve been what he didn’t say. Romney didn’t mention Texas Governor Rick Perry .

…

Romney also called Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels “extraordinary” and said Indiana is proving that conservative government can work.

A couple of things to note. One, Mitt continues to focus the majority of his energy upon Barack Obama. Two, the very day after Perry floundered in the debate possibly throwing the nomination back into Mitt’s lap, Mitt dropped any direct criticism of his chief rival. He also reached out to Mitch Daniels citing him as proof that our ideas will work.

Mitt continues to have his eye firmly upon the real prize in all this — the White House. It will do none of us any good if someone  should win the primaries but lose the general election.

People are currently projecting a demoralized Democratic party next year. That may well be, but Mitt is taking no chances. Even if the Democrats are demoralized, they are not going to just roll over and play dead. Whomever our eventual nominee might be, we are going to need a united party to win this thing. There is no reason to needlessly antagonize anyone.

Maggie Haberman has the story over at Politico:

With the party’s frontrunner sagging, Chris Christie is reconsidering pleas from Republican elites and donors to run for president in 2012, two Republican sources told POLITICO.

The New Jersey governor has indicated he is listening to big-money backers and Republican influence-makers, and will let them know in roughly a week whether he has moved off his threat-of-suicide vow to stay on the sidelines of a presidential race that remains amorphous heading into the fall, the two sources said.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s candidacy has failed to clear a basic bar with elites and some donors, and his shoddy debate performance in Orlando has only highlighted the window for someone who Republicans searching for a Mitt Romney alternative can rally around.

Christie’s potential candidacy has been an increasingly fevered fantasy of a certain cadre of some media and business elites — mostly based in New York, with a smattering of California technology and entertainment players — since last summer. That’s when he showed up at a Sun Valley conference hosted by the investment banker Allen and Co. and wowed the crowd, including Rupert Murdoch, with what many in attendance described as a nimble mind and a speaking style that was both articulate and blunt-spoken.

But after months of going out of his way to end the speculation, Christie started indicating he would at least think about getting in during the past week, the sources said, a period in which he held an event with Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels — who has strongly indicated he’d like to see another entry to the field — and had a meeting with a group of major New York donors.

It’s fun to talk about a Chris Christie run, but I suspect he knows that it’s too late.

Be sure to read the entire piece here.

SurveyUSA Tampa-St. Petersburg 2012 Fox News/Google GOP Presidential Debate Poll

Who won the debate? Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich? Michele Bachmann? Ron Paul? Rick Perry? Herman Cain? Rick Santorum? Jon Huntsman? Gary Johnson? Or, was there no clear winner?

• Mitt Romney 28%
• Rick Perry 14%
• Newt Gingrich 10%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Herman Cain 7%
• Jon Huntsman 6%
• Michele Bachmann 3%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Gary Johnson 0%
• No clear winner 23%

(more…)

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 48% [46%] (46%) {43%} [46%] (49%)
• Michele Bachmann 32% [33%] (38%) {39%} [39%] (27%)

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted September 20-21, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 27-28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 17-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 8-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the polls conducted May 1-14, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Democrats favors Obama, while just 59% of Republicans support Bachmann. Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Obama posts a 42% to 31% lead over the congresswoman.

The president holds a double-digit advantage over Bachmann among both male and female voters. She trails badly among voters under 40 but is more competitive among older voters.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

That’s what her remarks in Michigan today make it sound like, anyway:

South Carolina Republican Gov. Nikki Haley says she isn’t any closer to endorsing a candidate in the GOP presidential primary contest, but indicated on Friday that she’s looking for a “true executive” who can revive the nation’s struggling economy.

“We’re not going to vote for personality — we saw where that got us last time,” Haley said. “We need a true executive to get us back on track.”

Haley elaborated on that theme after her speech, telling Hotline On Call that she’s looking for a candidate with proven business background. “An executive — that means business people,” Haley said.

An executive with a proven business background? That fits two men currently in the race really well, and only one of them has a legitimate shot at winning the nomination…

With Gov. Rick Perry’s seeming implosion at last night’s debate, conservatives who desire a Republican nominee not named Mitt Romney seem to be hurting for viable options. To be sure, there are plenty of candidates other than Romney or Perry that remain in the race, but each of these candidates has already been written off by the conventional wisdom as a lower-tier selection that stands no chance of winning the nomination. The best possible outcome for a candidate like, say, Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum, is that each will receive a fraction of the Anybody-but-Mitt crowd as it begins to abandon Perry, which will only serve to divide Perry’s supporters so many ways that they cease to be relevant, ensuring an easy Romney nomination. As such, Republicans opposed to Romney as their nominee either need to start practicing saying, “President Mitt,” or need to coax into the race one of the remaining white knights who could consolidate a plurality of Republicans behind his or her fledgling candidacy and snag the nomination.

With the filing deadline for the pivotal Florida primary set for October 31st, any potential white knights must make their intentions known by Halloween should they have any realistic hope of winning the nomination. That means that Gov. Sarah Palin’s recent suggestion that she could put off a decision until as late as November is simply unrealistic, as no Republican presidential candidate is going to win the nomination while skipping Florida. Gov. Palin, to be sure, is one of the few candidates remaining who could qualify as a white knight. Gov. Perry’s collapse would make Gov. Palin the instant Tea Party candidate should she enter the race. And like Ron Paul, Gov. Palin has at her fingertips a grassroots fan base that could quickly and easily be transformed into an army of small donors and volunteers should the ‘Cuda decide to make a late entry into the race.

Another candidate who seems to be unable to escape everyone’s radar is Gov. Chris Christie. The New Jersey governor continues to deny any intention to run, even as establishment wonks and Bush family emissaries attempt to push the larger-than-life Garden State executive into the race. Given the Bush family’s interest in a Christie run, as demonstrated by Michael Gerson’s support for Christie in recent weeks, Christie would likely find himself with an insta-campaign at his fingertips. If Christie entered, he would essentially have the entire “Galactic Empire” of Bushie donors, volunteers, endorsements, and supporters at his command. That reality, combined with Christie’s combative, brusque nature, which is pitch-perfect for an angst-driven election cycle like this one, make Christie a real threat to Mitt Romney and pretty much every other candidate who hopes to win the GOP nomination next year.

If Christie doesn’t run, and if the Bushes continue to fear that their position as the Corleone family of the party is under seige, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush may decide to take the plunge. Jeb would likely enter with the same party machinery behind him as would Christie, though he’d have to work hard to shake off the legacy of his brother, who is still viewed suspiciously by the GOP base and by the nation. Jeb is unlikely to run and would probably only enter the field if Gov. Perry somehow makes a comeback, given that, of the potential nominees for president, only a Perry nomination would truly threaten the Bushes’ places at the table.

Finally, there’s always the chance that Rudy Giuliani may decide to make once last try for the nomination. Watching Rudy plop down in New Hampshire and run unapologetically as himself would be interesting if nothing else. But the hurdles are high for Mayor Giuliani after blowing what was essentially his position as frontrunner during the last presidential race.

Ultimately, though, it’s entirely possible that the field is set, and that Mitt Romney will soon establish himself as the probable nominee. We’ll know in a few short weeks whether to expect any further entries to a race that is beginning to look like Romney’s to lose.

The latest is based in part on comments Christie made at a meeting including Mitch Daniels at Rider University:

“I think what the country is thirsting for, more than anything else right now, is someone of stature and credibility to tell them that and say, ‘Here’s where I want us to go to deal with this crisis,’” Christie said.

Christie continued: “The fact that nobody yet who’s running for president, in my view, has done that effectively is why you continue to hear people ask Daniels if he’ll reconsider and ask me if I’ll reconsider.”

The article mentions a November decision, but if I’m not mistaken the deadline for filing in Florida is October 31.  This part of the article seems more realistic in terms of timing:

Newsmax has learned that the effort to draft Christie culminated in a hush-hush powwow held in the past week with Christie and several notable Republican billionaires.

A source familiar with the meeting suggested that Christie seemed inclined to enter the race but said he needed more time.

Christie promised to make a final decision “within two weeks,” the source said.

It’s interesting that that meeting must have been around the same time that Daniels said that it’s not too late for another entrant, using terminology not far distant from Christie’s comments above:

Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana said it is not too late for another candidate to enter the race for the White House and that he has tried to convince “three or four people” to make the jump. “Somebody else could still enter and have a competitive chance,” Daniels told The New York Times in a weekend interview. “The candidate I could get instantly excited about is someone who is willing to level with the American people and assume they are prepared to listen to the mathematical facts and agree that whatever other disagreements we have aren’t as important.”

The two-term governor, who publicly considered a presidential bid earlier this year, did not disclose the names of those he urged to run, but did say he was frustrated by the discussions taking place between the current contenders.

Why Daniels, who knows a bit about running campaigns, does not think it’s too late:

But Daniels said the quick rise of Perry’s candidacy proves another Republican could launch a successful campaign.

“He proved it wasn’t too late, I don’t think it’s too late yet,” Daniels said. “In the wired world we’re in, somebody new could get in.”

Well, it’s been quite an eventful two days so far at the Florida Presidency 5 convention. So, without further ado, here are some observations from the last two days:

1.) Quite a few of the people I’ve talked to in the last two days remain undecided about whom to support. It just goes to underscore how fluid the race is that at this stage of the race, there are still a large number of undecided activists.

2.) Yesterday before the debate, I saw tons of Rick Perry stickers. Today, they were much fewer. Not a single person I talked to thought he had a good debate last night. The Texas Governor is putting a lot of money into this event, easily more than all the other candidates. Anything short of a win for him would be a PR disaster.

3.) The biggest surprise so far has been the momentum building for Herman Cain. His well-received debate performance and a fiery speech today at the CPAC gathering have energized a lot of the undecided delegates. I would expect Cain to perform very impressively at tomorrow’s straw poll.

4.) Everybody still loves Newt Gingrich. The former Speaker is highly respected and people respond to his debating style. Almost no one I’ve talked to has anything bad to say about him. Yet, I saw a grand total of 1 person with a “Newt 2012” button. People like the Speaker, they respect him, but they aren’t voting for him.

5.) Rick Santorum is now a hot commodity. His strong debate last night has, like Herman Cain’s, brought some energy to the Pennsylvanian’s effort. I don’t think he’ll do as well as Cain, but with all the uncommitted delegates, who knows?

6.) Michele Bachmann seems to have fallen off the face of the earth. I haven’t seen anyone who was wearing a Bachmann shirt or button. I’d expect her to do poorly in the poll. Jon Huntsman’s campaign is around, but there’s certainly no groundswell of support for the Utahan. Although, at his CPAC speech, he received polite applause, which isn’t bad considering who it is.

7.) Mitt Romney has a funny way of not competing. His campaign has a booth, they’ve passed out signs, have people wearing stickers and buttons and there are Romney volunteers out there.

8.) Gary Johnson had the line of the night, no doubt about it; everyone in the crowd was laughing at it. People now know he exists, which for a candidate like that, is very good. He received a good response to his speech by the Ron Paul crowd, but they reserved their biggest cheers not surprisingly, for the Texas Congressman. Paul’s campaign is out in force, and his people are working hard for a good showing.

9.) As for the debate. First, the audience was huge, at least 5000 people in the hall. Second, any booing you heard was amplified by the hall itself. The floors are concrete and the layout of the hall made sound travel very well. The booing about the soldier came from 3 or 4 people, but the hall made it sound much greater than it was. Finally, if you ever get a chance to go to a debate, do it. That was my 2nd and they are an exciting experience each time.

So, that’s my report for now. Tomorrow is the straw poll. Delegates from every county in Florida will listen to speeches and vote by county like an old-style political convention. Should be a lot of fun, and I’ll have a Presidency 5 wrap-up post either tomorrow night or Sunday.

Romney emerges from the rubble of last night’s debate and quietly continues with the steady drip of endorsements this morning:

Mitt Romney today won the support of Indiana Congressman Todd Rokita.

“Congressman Rokita has been a strong public servant for Indiana and has worked hard to improve the state’s economy,” said Mitt Romney. “I look forward to working with him during my campaign and welcome his support.”

Announcing his support, Congressman Rokita said, “Mitt Romney has proven that he has the much-needed experience to lead the country toward an economic recovery. While President Obama has failed to control spending and get the economy moving, Mitt Romney has a record of cutting taxes, keeping spending low, and creating jobs. Mitt Romney’s record speaks for itself and that is why I support his bid for the presidency.”

Rep. Rokita is one of the new class of freshman voted into office in 2010 — a group that the Romney campaign has said they’d like to focus on to win their support. This brings Romney’s total number of endorsements by U.S. Senators and Representatives up to twenty.

Meanwhile, if you were wondering what Mitt Romney was doing in Florida for two days prior to the debate last night (since he only held one public town hall), here’s your answer: securing some more endorsements from Florida state Congressmen and women. On Wednesday, Romney flew a group of them down to Miami to meet with them, and then on Thursday he traveled to Orlando and met with another group of about fifteen legislators. Apparently, Romney won some of them over, as the St. Petersberg Times reports:

“We brought them in and let them meet with the governor,” state Sen. John Thrasher said, declining to identify anyone. “We’re trying to look ahead in a couple weeks and do some roll out of the team. It’s going to be pretty impressive.”

Ah, yes, the wonderful chess strategies of releasing endorsements continues. Looking forward to when Romney begins unveiling these Florida endorsements in a couple weeks!

Rasmussen Reports New Hampshire Republican Primary

• Romney – 39%
• Perry – 18%
• Paul – 13%
• Huntsman – 7%
• Bachmann – 5%
• Cain – 4%
• Gingrich – 4%
• Santorum – 2%
• Other/Undecided – 7%

Among Tea Party Voters:

• Romney – 30%
• Perry – 26%

Among Non-Tea Party Voters:

• Romney – 45%
• Perry – 14%

Among those who are certain how they will vote:

• Romney – 45%
• Paul – 17%
• Perry – 17%

Survey of 750 likely primary voters was conducted Sept 21 and has a margin of error of +/-4%.

While my erudite analysis of poll trends and detailed budget charts may impress… those of you who know me may recall that I cut loose at times to do some ridiculous schtick.

This is one of those times…

Rick Perry tried to attack Mitt Romney on the issue of flip/flops… it didn’t quite come out the way he was expecting. I couldn’t resist having a little fun with that moment last night. The actual exchange can be found here.

Cross-posted at iHartPolitics.com

Or, The Night Rick Perry Lost the Nomination

I’ve been watching politics closely since the 2000 election between Bush and Gore. I was in college at the time, had never voted before (turned 18 in 1997), and was trying to figure out exactly what I believed about things for the first time. That election is what made me a Republican-leaning Independent, something I’ve remained ever since. In the subsequent dozen years or so, I have watched a lot of primary and general election debates. I’ve seen a lot of cringe-worthy moments. I’ve watched replays of George H.W. Bush checking his watch. There were Gore’s eye rolls and sighs. There was Dubya begging the moderator to save him from a question Gore was asking that he did not understand. There was Obama rhetorically destroying John McCain on Iraq, and then again on taxes. There was Gore walking into Dubya’s personal space trying to physically intimidate him.

I’ve seen a lot of debate flubs and mistakes.

But Rick Perry’s performance last night may very well go down as the. worst. debate. in modern political history.

After having a night and a morning to process what happened last night, I still can’t wrap my head around Rick Perry’s performance. Mitt Romney could not have scripted a better implosion for his rival. In one fell swoop, Rick Perry may have just cost himself any shot at the GOP nomination. It’s a rather remarkable feat – one I didn’t think possible until I saw it with my own eyes.

Over at Intrade, Perry is down to 29 points Romney is up to 44 (and rising). Before the debates, the men were separated by just two and a half points. That has now exploded into a 15 point lead for Romney.

And Romney isn’t going to ease up on perhaps Perry’s worst moment of the night:

“One of the things I still can’t get over is the idea that a state could decide to give a $100,000 discount to illegal’s to go to school in their state,” Romney told the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando Friday. “It is simply wrong to create that kind of magnet. It cannot be sustained.”

“My friend Governor Perry said that if you don’t agree with his position on giving that in-state tuition to illegal’s that you don’t have a heart,” he added. “I think if you’re opposed to illegal immigration, it doesn’t mean that you don’t have a heart. It means that you have a heart and a brain.”

He drew loud cheers and applause for his attack.

The punchline, of course, is meticulously perfect in its double effect. First, it defends conservatism in a poignant way; secondly, it subtly plays upon the stereotype that Perry isn’t exactly the sharpest crayon in the box.

The conservative blogosphere is replete with comments and blogs of people hopping off the Perry train after last night’s utter disaster. Never before have I seen one single debate be so decisive in the course of a campaign. (Too be fair, there probably has been a bit of a cumulative effect from Perry’s two other debate debacles.) But for Rick Perry, last night was that bad.

Is this the winner of last night’s debate?

As of this morning, behold the most popular search term in the nation:

FOX News’s post-debate online survey seems to show a correlation also.

Sarah Palin’s on again, off again flirtation with the GOP nomination has been described by many as merely a scheme to sell more books and claim more media attention. After all, the idea of starting a campaign in September would be madness, let alone in November. Of course, the argument’s made that Ronald Reagan waited until November 1979 to announce his candidacy. But this is not 1980.

However, there’s some strategery here that makes sense for Palin under certain circumstances. Let us assume that Palin only wants to put her name out there if she’s got a serious shot at the nomination. Otherwise, she can continue her Fox News work and writing on her Facebook page and be quite happy.

Palin could be very well be letting the campaign play out a little bit to see if the conservative tea party voters find their candidate.  What Palin has witnessed from the sidelines is the political implosion of Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, and Michele Bachmann. Then, Rick Perry entered the race and jumped into the lead. In his first few joint appearance, Perry has struggled mightily. Not only that, he’s irked conservatives on immigration and offered no real jobs plan or Social Security reform plan, plus opposing the Tea Party position on illegal immigration.

There are several situations under which Palin could forego a run. Conservatives could embrace Perry, Bachmann could find resurgance in Iowa, or Romney’s opposition could dissipate. But what if Bachmann doesn’t come back and despite the big money coming in on his behalf, Rick Perry loses support and traction with the conservative base of the party over his crony capitalism problem and illegal immigration?

Palin would have an opening, but could she take advantage of it? In theory, yes. Money and organizational support would come. She has many devoted fans who’d toss in a few thousand dollars. She has more Facebook friends and Twitter followers than any of the active presidential campaigns (for comparison, she has 3 times the Facbeook Fans at Mitt Romney and nearly seven times the number of Twitter followers. While not every fan or follower is  a supporter. No doubt that would  add up to money and volunteers for a non-traditional campaign. In the past few hours, dozens of requests for Palin to run have popped up on her page.

The strategy would be a straightforward play to take Iowa and then with a grassroots effort, take the GOP by storm.

Could she do it? Sure. She does need to avoid Perry’s pitfalls. (Note: Running on Jobs and not being able to offer a jobs plan is not a good combination.) However, Palin has become more substantive in her Facebook posts and other writings in recent months, perhaps more substantive than many of the candidates running.  And for those who saw her in 2008 and 2009, expectations have been set pretty low, so low that it would be easy for her to clear the bar.

Of course, if the perfect storm doesn’t come together, she may find her strategy didn’t work. However, when you have 3 million Facebook fans, there’s always nex

Here’s a preview:

Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are set to slug it out for a third time along with seven other challengers at Thursday night’s Fox News/Google debate in what is increasingly becoming a two-man race to challenge President Obama.

Perry, who surpassed Romney as the field’s front-runner shortly after jumping into the race last month, is hoping for a strong policy performance in the wake of criticism from rivals that his record is weak on illegal immigration, extreme on Social Security and prone to crony capitalism. He’s expected to pound on Romney as Obama-lite.

Romney needs a strong character performance to combat his reputation for changing positions over the years and to further rough up Perry as too extreme and unelectable.

But they won’t be on the Orlando stage alone. Joining them are Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, businessman Herman Cain, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson.

The partnership between Fox News and Google for the debate enabled the viewing public for the first time to weigh in with votes on questions they want asked. All the submissions can be viewed on the YouTube.com/FoxNews website. Of the more than 18,000 questions submitted via text and videos, about a dozen will be asked at the debate, which is being hosted in conjunction with the Republican Party of Florida. Fox News’ Bret Baier will moderate, joined by Fox News anchors Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace as panelists.

Remember, you can watch the debate live online here.

Have at it!

I just received this in my inbox: