Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 44% [39%] (41%) {42%} [44%]
• Ron Paul 34% [38%] (37%) {34%} [35%]
• Some other candidate 13% [14%]
• Undecided 9% [8%]

Among Independents

• Barack Obama 40% [33%]
• Ron Paul 33% [43%]

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted September 24-25, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-16, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 26-27, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 20-21, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted between January 17-18, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

While Obama now carries 79% of the Democratic vote, Paul picks up just 61% of his fellow Republicans.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 39% {42%} [43%]
  
• Herman Cain 34% {35%} [25%]
• Some other candidate 14%
• Undecided 14%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted September 26-27, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 23-24, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 26-27, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

In a match-up against President Obama, just 61% of Republicans are ready to vote for Cain. Eighteen percent (18%) would prefer a third option and 11% are not sure. Among unaffiliated voters, 33% prefer Cain, 31% Obama, and 36% aren’t ready to commit to either candidate.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

My favorite character from the old Red Green Show was Hap Shaughnessy. Whenever he appeared, he would regale us with wild stories full of totally outrageous claims. What made it even funnier is that he would tell them with a completely straight face. Everyone around him knew he was lying through his teeth, yet it never seemed to phase him. It was hilarious.

For those of you who aren’t familiar with the character, here is one example:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FI3qRq4EnHE[/youtube]

Since Rick Perry entered the race, I’ve been trying to figure out exactly what his style of bombastic bluster reminded me of. His rhetoric is often way over the top, yet he continues to show a surprising lack of intellectual curiosity. It really shows itself during interviews and debates when he has to go off script and talk of things beyond his memorized sound bites.

Rick is quite good at pointing out problems. He’s a past master of criticizing others. Yet he never seems to offer anything really new or make any detailed suggestions on how to get us  out of this mess beyond a handful of conservative platitudes.There is nothing concrete that shows he is thinking deeply about anything beyond trying to win the Presidency.

By way of contrast Romney, Cain, and Huntsman have all published detailed policy analyses that are available for close scrutiny. You might not agree with them, but they are out there. You can know exactly where they stand on these issues.

Even Sarah Palin has gotten in on the act. She writes out long, detailed facebook essays showing that she is thinking carefully about the problems America is facing.

But out of Perry, nothing. We only get Hap Shaughnessy-like over-the-top bluster and bombast that nobody really believes anymore. If the man doesn’t get his act together soon, his campaign will be all over but the shouting.

Dean Cannon, Florida House Speaker, told CNN this morning that the supercommittee that was hand-picked to select the date of the Florida primary will meet from 11-12 this Friday, and will publicly announce the date of that primary after the meeting.

Cannon’s understanding of the date they will choose: January 31, 2012.

This prediction has thrown the early states primary calendar into chaos as Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina — the four states that have officially been given “early state” status by the RNC — have all announced they will respond accordingly.

As the head of the Iowa GOP, Matt Strawn has final control over Iowa’s caucus date — and he has announced that no matter what, Iowa will be the first contest to go. This means (if Florida follows through and puts their primary on January 31) that the Iowa caucus will likely be held in early January again.

Secretary of State William Gardner has control over New Hampshire’s primary date, and he also announced that he will move New Hampshire as early as necessary to retain its status as the first-in-the-nation primary.

And the South Carolina GOP has scheduled an announcement regarding the primary calendar for 11:00 eastern time tomorrow morning. It is unknown what they will announce, but it will likely be in a similar vein as IA and NH: that they will move the SC primary as early as necessary to retain its first-in-the-south status.

If Florida ends up placing their primary on January 31, we very well could be looking at a calendar like this:

January 9 – Iowa
January 17 – New Hampshire
January 21 – Nevada*
January 24 – South Carolina
January 31 – Florida
February 7 – Colorado
February 28 – Arizona, Michigan

*Nevada will move with New Hampshire, as they have stated their caucuses will fall on “the Saturday after the New Hampshire primaries”.

We will know more for sure on Friday afternoon when the Florida supercommittee makes their official announcement.

PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 30% {29%} [28%]
• Rick Perry 24%
• Newt Gingrich 10% {10%} [30%]
• Ron Paul 8% {8%} [9%]
• Herman Cain 7% {14%}
• Michele Bachmann 6% {22%} [11%]
• Jon Huntsman 3% {2%}
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 9% {9%} [11%]

If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 45%
• Rick Perry 36%
• Not sure 19%

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme.”

• Agree 37%
• Disagree 49%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 65% {56%} [61%] (61%) / 22% {30%} [24%] (22%) {+43%}
• Newt Gingrich 57% {46%} [58%] (59%) / 29% {37%} [26%] (24%) {+28%}
• Rick Perry 54% {38%} / 31% {12%} {+23%}
• Michele Bachmann 39% {58%} [44%] / 37% {22%} [9%] {+2%}
• Ron Paul 33% {44%} [53%] / 45% {31%} [16%] {-12%}

Survey of 472 usual Florida Republican primary voters was conducted September 22-25, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Political ideology: 43% {35%} [38%] Somewhat conservative; 33% {40%} [40%] Very conservative; 19% {21%} [17%] Moderate; 4% {4%} [3%] Somewhat liberal; 1% {1%} [1%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-20, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 16-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conductedMarch 5-8, 2010 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

It is ARG, so take it with a big grain of salt, but here are the latest numbers from the Hawkeye State:

American Research Group Iowa Republican Caucus

• Romney – 21%
• Bachmann – 15%
• Perry – 14%
• Paul – 12%
• Gingrich – 8%
• Cain – 6%
• Palin – 4%
• Santorum – 2%
• Huntsman- 1%
• Roemer – 1%
• Johnson – *
• Undecided – 15%

Survey of 600 likely caucus goers was done Sept 22-27 with a margin of error of +/-4%.

Jonathan Martin (one of my favorite blogger/reporters) is up with a new piece over at Politico, highlighting some conversations he’s had with aides to Rick Perry. The topic: what is the campaign going change to right the USS Perry?

The answer? Nothing. Just hit harder:

Rick Perry’s widely panned debate performances? Just a hiccup. Any major changes in debate prep? None planned. His unexpected and deflating Florida straw poll loss last weekend? Not a big deal. Even as some of his supporters grow anxious, the Texas governor’s top aides insist they have no plans for real or even symbolic changes to their campaign. The only pivot they’ll make, they say, is to become more aggressive with Mitt Romney.

“We’re not going to change what we’re doing,” said Perry spokesman Mark Miner. “It’s a long race.”

Somewhere, Mitt Romney is smiling with glee – especially about the “no changes in debate prep” part. But while the Perry campaign is digging in and refusing to make changes, his bundlers and backers are getting nervous. From the same article:

Other Perry supporters are feeling a greater sense of urgency. “He just has to perform better,” said one of his bundlers. “And if he doesn’t, he’s not going to do well in this thing.” The bundler said similar feelings were expressed by other donors on a Perry finance conference call Tuesday. “It’s not panic yet, but there is a little bit of nervousness,” said this source, adding that those on the call wanted some reassurance that the candidate would better come better prepared to the next debate.

Added another Perry donor who has been trying to corral contributors: “The debate performances didn’t send people to Romney, it just convinced people to stay on the fence for longer.”

Part of the frustration among donors owes to a sense that they’re not completely looped into the campaign and therefore can’t effectively make Perry’s case when trying to convince other money types to come on board. “Talking points, press releases, letting their supporters know what they’re doing – that kind of stuff isn’t happening,” said a Perry bundler in Washington, calling Perry’s operation “a start-up.”

Another Perry backer in South Carolina said that the immigration issue hadn’t penetrated yet with rank-and-file voters, but had spooked the party insiders there who are paying close attention to the presidential primary. “A lot of people are freaked out,” said this South Carolinian. “All the coverage of [immigration] has clearly put some urgency on him.”

Sounds like there’s trouble in Perry-dise.

Oh, and ABC News might beg to differ that Perry’s debate debacles “didn’t send people to Romney” — they have a story about how the phones at Romney HQ in Florida have been “ringing off the hook” ever since Perry’s flop:

As the third quarter fundraising period draws to a close Friday, the Romney campaign is feeling pretty confident — especially in the Sunshine State. Several sources close to the campaign told ABC News that there has been a noticeable peak in interest since last week’s debate in Orlando, during which GOP frontrunner Rick Perry garnered an onslaught of criticism for his floundering performance.

One top fundraiser said his phone has been “ringing off the hook” in the past few days. In addition to rallying the enthusiasm of their base, Romney sources say that donors are opening their pocketbooks in the wake of Perry’s debate performance. “I think that one of the things that’s pretty remarkable is the change that really took place after [the debate],” said Ambassador John Rood, Romney’s Florida finance co-chair. “I’ve never seen such a change in fortune like I saw after the debate. There were obviously many people watching closely to determine where they were going to go this election,” Rood added. ”The debate had a big influence on who these people were going to support.”

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: there are two rules to attacking your opponents in politics. 1) Only attack up, and 2) Only attack when you have to. Voters, generally speaking and with a slew of caveats, respond unkindly to negative campaigns. For Perry to decide that his only problem so far has been not attacking Romney hard enough indicates to me that he is not ready for national primetime politics.

-An economic/energy plan that is pro-growth, pro-small business, pro-big oil and green-

I know, the subtitle seems like an oxymoron right? But stay with me. This idea could save our nation, making the 21st century just as America-dominant as the 20th. Or, it could be an opportunity to poke holes in this and make me look like an amateur- that could be fun too, right?

First, let me admit right up front that I am not an economist; I do not have an MBA from Harvard; I have never been an elected official. However, I am a reasonably intelligent guy who enjoys reading and writing about politics and policy. After spending a few days researching I have stumbled across an idea that I think could be a unifying one for any of the 2012 candidates for the Republican nomination. We could bring together all conservatives and pick off a generous portion of pro-climate change greens as well.

But I need your help.

I know here at Race42012 there are a number of people with more experience in this area than me, and I am counting on you guys to vet this idea. Tell me where it goes wrong. Why won’t it work. Who knows, we may be able to create a grassroots conservative movement that deals with specifics, not just angry rants and platitudes.

The first component of this plan comes from something I found on NPR of all places. I had heard about the oil boom in the American West before, but it was this article that really opened my eyes to the possibilities it presents. Turns out the United States has a very real chance to become the leading source of oil for the foreseeable future:

Two years ago, America was importing about two thirds of its oil. Today, according to the Energy Information Administration, it imports less than half. And by 2017, investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts the US could be poised to pass Saudi Arabia and overtake Russia as the world’s largest oil producer.

More:

Amy Myers Jaffe of Rice University says in the next decade, new oil in the US, Canada and South America could change the center of gravity of the entire global energy supply…

 

The US, Jaffe says, could have 2 trillion barrels of oil waiting to be drilled. South America could hold another 2 trillion. And Canada? 2.4 trillion. That’s compared to just 1.2 trillion in the Middle East and north Africa.

Jaffe says those new oil reserves, combined with growing turmoil in the Middle East, will “absolutely propel more and more investment into the energy resources in the Americas.”
The United States should actively promote this drilling by any means available. With the growing demand in countries like China and India, this could become an enormous opportunity for economic growth. Trade deficits could vanish virtually overnight. Someone is going to feed developing economies oil- why not us? This part of the plan is obviously beneficial to big oil and large business. But the snowball effect could lead to benefits for others as well.

Spur on small business growth with a radical change to the tax policy that even the greens will like.

The second part of this plan comes from Walter Russell Mead- no neo-con to be sure, but an intelligent thinker nonetheless. Here is his idea (emphasis mine):

It has long seemed to me that replacing the payroll tax (the employer and employee taxes for Social Security and Medicare) with a revenue neutral carbon tax would shift the tax burden from job creation and wages to carbon consumption. This would be good social policy in the United States whether or not you are worried about global warming. It would encourage employment and accelerate the development of a high tech and service economy in the US.

This tax shift, not hike, would free up companies to hire without bringing on new tax expenses. It would also encourage the development of green technologies in a much more free market manner. The recent Solyndra affair highlights why government subsidies for selected technologies will not work. It makes the government the decider on which ideas are profitable  and not the free market. If companies want to lower their tax bills they will develop innovative ideas on their own. This is how to use capitalism for good social policy and profit.

The (nearly) immediate benefits of this plan seem solid:

• Safe oil leads to national security and huge oil profits
• Tax relief for companies wanting to hire new employees
• Incentive for newer green technologies

However, there is a long term benefit as well. Eventually a peak oil event will occur- oil is not limitless after all. Countries like China and India will eventually desire greener alternatives as well. With America leading the way in green innovation, developed not through government intervention, but through free market competition, our economic security would seem to be assured for a long time to come.

OK, now it is your turn. Where is my reasoning off? From this layman’s view this plan seems like a winner. If a 2012 candidate took it on- someone with the business acumen and real-world experience to really sell it- it could unite conservatives, independents and even a few greens. This would surely be a winning combination.

Wouldn’t it?

Steve writes regularly at his own site.

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania Republican Primary

• Romney – 18%
• Perry – 16%
• Santorum – 12%
• Palin – 8%
• Bachmann – 6%
• Cain – 5%
• Paul – 5%
• Gingrich – 4%
• Huntsman – 2%
• Undecided – 19%

General Election Matchups

• Obama – 45%
• Romney – 43%

• Obama – 46%
• Perry – 40%

Favorability Numbers:

• Romney – 32/28
• Obama – 45/49
• Perry – 20/33

Survey of 541 registered Republicans (+/-4.2%) and 1,370 registered voters (+/-2.7%) was conducted September 21-26.

Quinnipiac Ohio Republican Primary

• Romney – 24%
• Perry – 20%
• Palin – 9%
• Cain – 7%
• Paul – 6%
• Gingrich – 4%
• Santorum – 4%
• Bachmann – 3%
• Huntsman – 1%
• Undecided – 21%

Without Palin:

• Romney – 25%
• Perry – 21%
• Cain – 7%
• Gingrich – 6%
• Paul – 6%
• Bachmann – 4%
• Santorum – 4%
• Huntsman – 2%
• Undecided – 22%

General Election Matchups

• Obama – 44%
• Romney – 42%

• Obama – 44%
• Perry – 41%

Survey of 423 registered Republicans (+/-4.8%) and 1,301 registered voters (+/-2.7%) was conducted September 20-25.

Here is Sarah Palin last night on Greta:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AbiLNW3nZ8[/youtube]

She was trying to explain that one can accomplish so much more without the confines of an office to hold her.

Quoting from the National Journal:

Acknowledging that “decisions have to be made” quickly, Sarah Palin on Tuesday laid out a case for not running for president in 2012.

Appearing on Fox News’ On the Record, a favorite venue, Palin appeared to be talking herself out of the race in an interview with host Greta Van Susteren.

“Is a campaign too shackling?” she mused. As the GOP’s 2008 vice presidential nominee, Palin said she felt encumbered by “handlers.” Running for office “prohibits the freedom one needs to really make a difference,” said the self-described “rogue” politician.

Added Palin: “You don’t need a title to make a difference.”

I predicted clear back in July of 2009 shortly after she had resigned as Governor of Alaska that Sarah was through with elective office, that she loved the freedom of going wherever she wanted and saying whatever she liked without having to worry about the constraints being Governor or President places upon you. It looks like I might have called that one right.

I’ll be live-blogging the address of Gov. Chris Christie at the Reagan Library tonight, which begins at 9pm here in the east. You can watch the event live here. Perhaps the governor, in addition to giving us a look at his vision for America going forward, will address the continuing rumors of a potential presidential bid.

9:02 – Things should be getting underway any moment now.

9:06 – Hat tip to Craig in the comments section for pointing out that Fox News appears to be prepared to broadcast the address as well.

9:08 – Christie to be accompanied by Nancy Reagan. The imagery will be telling.

9:12 – Mrs. Christie would make an excellent First Lady. Just sayin’.

9:16 – Christie headed up to the podium.

9:22 – The Christie Doctrine: America must set an example for the world. Seems to break from NeoConservatism, but not in an isolationist way.

9:23 – Must raise our nation’s standard of living. Tax reform. Entitlement reform.

9:24 – Christie’s ability to deliver humor comes naturally to him. That’s something a politician can’t buy.

9:27 – Americans must be told the truth about the problems that we face and the viable solutions.

9:27 – Attacks Obama. You know, like a presidential candidate would.

9:28 – “When there is a problem, you fix it.”

9:29 – Democracy is the best protector of freedom. Touts mature democracies around the world, and free trade. Endorses Israel.

9:31 – American Exceptionalism – we are “different, and, yes, better.” But we must lead by example, not just with words.

9:35 – Domestic policy proposals – tax reform, entitlement reform, education reform.

9:36 – Can’t make over other societies in our image.

9:37 – Must not turn our back on the world. Terrorism is still a real threat.

9:39 – Obama’s re-election strategy is to divide the nation by scaring those who are struggling.

9:41 – Crowd goes wild as Christie takes it to Obama.

9:43 – American Exceptionalism isn’t a punchline, it’s a vision. Must revitalize America.

9:44 – Speech was much more brief than I had anticipated. Crowd giving Christie lots of applause.

9:45 – First audience question about immigration. Christie touts border security, fair system of legal immigration, must use legal immigration to expand America’s innovation.

9:46 – Ouch. Dings Perry. No in-state tuition for illegals. “That is not a heartless position, that is a common sense position.”

9:47 – Here’s the POTUS question!

9:48 – It’s a no!

9:48 – Christie’s sense of humor, charm, and charisma are second to none.

9:50 – This guy would eat the other candidates alive in a debate. Sigh.

9:56 – Questioner is “imploring” Christie to run for prez!

9:57 – “Your country needs you to run for president.” Thunderous applause.

10:00 – He ain’t running. Essentially tells the audience that he doesn’t have the calling this time around.

10:01 – What a man! Filled to the brim with innate wit, elegance, and charm, Gov. Christie is exactly the sort of leader the GOP and the country both need right now. Unfortunately his heart just isn’t in a run for the presidency. Should the president manage to win re-election, look for Christie to once again adorn everyone’s presidential radar screens in 2016.

Though I’m well aware of the facts behind these issues, I take no credit for this researching these specific ads. Glenn “The Fact Checker” Kessler of The Washington Post investigated claims made against Governor Romney, by Team Perry, in two web ads released just yesterday and this morning. His findings: Three Pinocchios (out of four) for the first and a There-are-only-so-many-Pinocchios-one-can-award-in-a-day! for the second.

Video One – Words Have Meanings:

Perry claims the first edition of Romney’s book states that the Mass Health Care was a model for a national plan.

The video ad:

The Fact Check:
(more…)

A new report from the non-partisan Civic Foundation illustrates yet another example of how not to govern courtesy of my home state of Illinois:

Despite a major income tax increase, the state of Illinois is expected to end the budget year more than $8 billion in the red, according to a report set to be released Monday by a nonpartisan tax watchdog group.

The Civic Federation analysis found that while lawmakers cut spending for state agencies this year, the reductions were offset by higher pension costs and the growing cost of paying back years of increased borrowing to keep Illinois afloat.

…”What we’re seeing is that even after a considerable tax increase and a commitment by the Illinois General Assembly to set expenditures based on revenues, because of the manipulations to under fund Medicaid and the growing debt service and pension contribution costs, the state remains in an unstable and unsustainable fiscal situation,” said Laurence Msall, Civic Federation president.

…Despite the bleak picture, Msall said there was a silver lining this year — lawmakers made the annual pension payment without borrowing money. But Msall said that payment, roughly $4 billion, ate up most of the extra money the January tax increase brought into the state, and the pension systems remain severely underfunded.

So, let’s recap: Illinois elected officials, led by Gov. Pat Quinn, argue in favor of a tax increase as a means to address the state’s mountains of unfunded pension liabilities. The hikes pass, and, lo and behold, while they do generate some additional revenue (aside from making the state even less competitive for businesses), the structural deficit has hardly changed!

If this should sound familiar, that’s because it is. The Illinois government and budget offer plenty of lessons we can apply on a national scale. Indeed, you can substitute “entitlement” for “pension”, “country” for “state”, and “trillion[s] for billion[s]” and have almost the same overall scenario. This provides us with a key insight: that we should look to spending restraint (read: entitlement reform), not tax increases, as the primary means to address our fiscal woes.

As the Land of Lincoln has showed us, you cannot erase red ink without focusing on the true driver of budget gaps. Public pensions act as that for Illinois; for the federal government, entitlements do.

This is what happens when a candidate is serious about being pro-business and turning the economy around:

[Romney is] luring away at least 100 donors, mostly investors, who backed the president in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The former Obama donors are helping the former Massachusetts governor lock up Wall Street dollars as Romney races to financially outpace primary rival Texas Governor Rick Perry in advance of the Sept. 30 third quarter deadline for campaign fundraising.

“It’s going to be very hard for the president to bash the rich and create jobs at the same time,” said Anthony Scaramucci, 47, founder and managing partner of New York-based SkyBridge Capital LLC that manages $8 billion, who has switched support from Obama in 2008 to Romney. “I don’t think the country is about class warfare.”

Anthony Scaramucci FTW.

Obviously, stories of people who supported Obama in 2008 but are now backing the GOP candidate are key to winning in 2012.

In related news, the Romney campaign – who had been lowballing their third quarter estimates at below $10 million – now says there’s a good chance Romney could pull in up to $18 million when all is said and done. The Perry campaign, for their part, is keeping their estimate parked at $10 million — although several sources this morning have begun talking about them potentially hitting (or shooting well past) the $20 million mark.

Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rudy Giuliani 79%/16% {+63%}
• Herman Cain 77%/15% {+62%}
• Rick Perry 71%/17% {+54%}
• Mitt Romney 72%/20% {+52%}
• Rick Santorum 65%/19% {+46%}
• Sarah Palin 66%/31% {+35%}
• Newt Gingrich 64%/30% {+34%}
• Michele Bachmann 62%/29% {+33%}
• Ron Paul 57% /32% {+25%}
• Jon Huntsman 51%/32% {+19%}

(more…)

Siena College New York 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 56% (55%)
• Mitt Romney 36% (37%)

• Barack Obama 56% (57%)
• Rick Perry 33% (30%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 52% (52%) / 45% (45%) {+7%}
• Mitt Romney 30% (32%) / 46% (46%) {-16%}
• Rick Perry 21% (15%) / 45% (32%) {-24%}

(more…)

-The level of GOP dissatisfaction with the current crop of presidential candidates has created a window of opportunity for Mike Huckabee to enter the race for the Republican nomination.

Will opponents and their surrogates balk at Huckabee’s change of heart? (“All the factors say go, but my heart says no.”) Probably, but Mike Huckabee can turn it around by stating that their constant fighting on the debate stage and their lack of focus on reforms has given him heartburn.

Will pundits frame the entrance as too late citing Rick Perry’s recent example of imploding on the debate stage? They will try but Mike Huckabee is best known for being an articulate, quick witted debater. While he has not been on the current debate stage, he has been on the hot seat-the HotSeat segment of his show-where he has debated liberals on economic, social, and foreign policy related issues. In addition, Huckabee has hosted conservative guests highlighting topics such as the debt ceiling, health care reform, job creation, Israeli/Palestinian conflict, and the FairTax.

Will his opponents place a target on his back like they did with Rick Perry in the last three debates? Hard to say. But given that Mike Huckabee had most of them on his show where they could highlight their platforms and set their records straight, it is highly unlikely that they would attack him right away.

Is there enough time for Huckabee to frame the debate? Yes, Mike Huckabee wrote in his book A Simple Government 12 chapters showcasing underlying principles and solutions to make America strong. All Huckabee has to do is provide additional detail on his reforms. That will allow voters to see that Huckabee’s 10 1/2 years of managing a microcosm of the federal government has left him best prepared to take on the challenge.

Is there room for another GOP candidate-a late entry? Yes, the straw poll conducted in Florida is one such poll that shows dissatisfaction with Mitt Romney and Rick Perry–63% of the ballots cast were against the two front runners. Herman Cain won the straw poll earning more than Mitt Romney and Rick Perry combined.

Recent polling continues to show that undecided and not sure is still a preferred option amongst the voters:

As Huckabee supporters continue to pray that their candidate enters the race, the question remains: Will Mike Huckabee throw his hat into the ring?

_____________________________________________________________________________

-Texas Conservative blogs at ILikeMikeHuckabee2012.

First, Christie’s spokesman told reporters last night that Christie will not run.

Then, Christie’s brother told reporters this morning that he will not run.

And finally, Christie himself has just announced — yet again — that he will not be running for President in 2012.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled cage match between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry…

From the official release:

Boston, MA – Romney for President today announced its Florida campaign staff.

“This is the team that will beat President Obama in Florida,” said Romney for President Deputy Campaign Manager Katie Packer Gage. “This team will be critical as Mitt Romney campaigns across Florida spreading his pro-growth message and working to bring jobs back to the state.”

 

Background On Mitt Romney’s Florida Campaign Staff:

Molly Donlin Will Be The Romney For President Florida State Director. Donlin has extensive experience working at the state level having worked for state parties in Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia and Ohio. Donlin has also worked for the Republican National Committee, the Justice Department, and Rudy Giuliani’s 2008 Florida campaign.

JC Hernandez Will Serve As The Florida Field Director. Previously, Hernandez served as the Executive Director of the Republican Party of Miami Dade County where he managed electoral activity at the county, state and federal level. This effort included Senator Marco Rubio’s 2010 Senate campaign. Hernandez has also served in roles for both Barry University in Miami and Roosevelt University in Chicago.

Alex Melendez Will Serve As The Tampa Bay Regional Field Director. Melendez is a veteran of Governor Rick Scott’s 2010 campaign and worked for the Florida Department of Corrections following the election. In 2008, Melendez worked on John McCain’s Florida campaign.

Andrew Messer Will Serve As The North FL Regional Field Director. Messer is a Partner at The Vineyard Company, a political and public relations consulting firm. He is a graduate of Liberty University School of Law.

Brett Doster Will Serve As A Strategic Adviser. Doster has worked for the past two decades in Florida politics. He served as Special Assistant to Jeb Bush during his 1993 campaign and served as Executive Director for Bush-Cheney 2004’s Florida campaign.

CNN/ORC 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 49% {49%} [54%] (45%) {53%}
• Mitt Romney 48% {48%} [43%] (50%) {45%}

• Barack Obama 51% [52%]
• Ron Paul 47% [45%]

• Barack Obama 51% {51%}
• Rick Perry 46% {46%}

• Barack Obama 54% {51%}
• Michele Bachmann 42% {45%}

• Barack Obama 58% {55%} [59%] (52%) {55%}
• Sarah Palin 37% {41%} [38%] (44%) {42%}

(more…)

Dude:

Rick Perry has tumbled by more than 20 percentage points over the past month among Republican presidential primary voters and is now second to Herman Cain, who leads the field with 28%.

Mitt Romney received little benefit from Perrys fall, garnering 17% of the vote for third place.

Note that the poll in question is a Zogby “interactive” poll, which has produced results in the past that tend to be a bit dissimilar to pollsters who utilize more traditional methods. Still, the fact that Cain is leading the field in a national poll of Republican primary voters, and by double-digits at that, demonstrates just how fluid this race continues to be. The conventional wisdom that either Gov. Romney, because of his next-in-line status, or Gov. Perry, because of his strength among the traditional, evangelical-heavy Republican base, has any natural advantage in a political environment like the present one is about to be thrown out the window.

Tomorrow evening NJ Governor Chris Christie will deliver a major address at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation’s Center for Public Affairs in California.  With the increased speculation about Governor Christie reconsidering his earlier decision regarding a presidential run, this address may be particularly worth watching live.  It will begin at 6 pm Pacific Daylight Time or 8 pm Central Daylight Time or 9 pm Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday September 27.  You can access the live webcast here.

Should you be unable to watch the presentation live tomorrow evening.  The Reagan Foundation website will archive the event.

From the official release:

NH STATE REPRESENTATIVES ENDORSE MITT ROMNEY

Boston, MA – Mitt Romney announced the endorsement of ten New Hampshire State Representatives.

“I am proud to announce the support of these outstanding New Hampshire legislators,” said Mitt Romney. “I am excited to work with these great leaders to help spread my pro-growth message across New Hampshire and put America back on the path to prosperity.”

“Governor Romney demonstrated in last week’s debate that he is the only Republican capable of defeating President Obama in 2012. Mitt is clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the field when it comes to understanding the free market and what it will take to put people back to work,” said Representative John Tholl, a former Coos County Republican Committee Chairman. “In 2012, Republicans want a leader who knows how to cut taxes, reduce bloated government spending and turn around our struggling economy. That leader is Mitt Romney.”

Romney has previously announced the endorsement of nine other New Hampshire State Representatives, four New Hampshire State Senators, two executive councilors and two Sheriffs.

State Representatives Endorsing Mitt Romney:

State Representative John Tholl (R-Whitefield)

State Representative Carl Seidel (R-Nashua)

State Representative Ken Hawkins (R-Bedford)

State Representative David Welch (R-Kingston)

State Representative Barry Palmer (R-Nashua)

State Representative John O’Connor (R-Derry)

State Representative Robert Rowe (R-Amherst)

State Representative Frank Sterling (R-Jaffrey)

State Representative Molly Smith (R-Hooksett)

State Representative Michael Weeden (R-Dover)

\

From NRO:

Former New Jersey governor Tom Kean, who has known Chris Christie since he was a teenager and remains an informal adviser, tells National Review Online that the governor is “very seriously” considering a presidential bid.

“It’s real,” Kean says. “He’s giving it a lot of thought. I think the odds are a lot better now than they were a couple weeks ago.”

Make sure to check out the rest of Kean’s comments here.

Does this mean Christie is in? No. Does it mean that what we’ve been hearing the last few weeks is more than donor hype? Yes.  It is one thing to have anonymous staffers and donors making comments to the press, but it’s somewhat different when friends and mentors to Christie like Mitch Daniels and Tom Kean are making these statements.

OK… that’s a headline to get you to click through… but wouldn’t that be the prime graphic on every evening news program if this were President McCain?

This is pure unfiltered fodder which you can use to make the case that Barack Obama needs to be defeated.

How do I justify this outrageous statement?

Obama has presided over the single largest drop in income for the poorest Americans.

The census data only goes back to 1968 so I can’t tell what big drops happened before but…

Take a look at the chart below. It shows the % change in lowest quintile median income (the poorest Americans) year over year, from 1968 in 2010 dollars. This data is taken directly from the Census Bureau.

(more…)

From CNN:

	(Sep. 23-25)	(Sep. 9-11)	(Aug. 24-25)	(Aug 5-7)	(July 18-20)
Perry	28%	30%	30%	16%	15%
Romney	21%	18%	17%	19%	19%
Gingrich	10%	5%	6%	6%	4%
Cain	7%	5%	3%	4%	6%
Palin	7%	15%	12%	16%	15%
Paul	7%	12%	6%	12%	10%
Bachmann	4%	4%	10%	7%	12%
Santorum	3%	2%	1%	2%	2%
Huntsman	1%	2%	1%	5%	1%
Someone else	3%	2%	6%	6%	5%
None/ No one	4%	4%	6%	5%	9%
No opinion	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%

From 447 Adult Republicans MOE: +/- 4.5

From this poll, it would appear that Perry’s last debate performance was not the killer that everyone assumed. He only fell back two points. Romney only gained three points. That’s only a net gain for Romney of a measly five points. That is hardly earth shattering. Cain, the one that everyone has been buzzing about all weekend only gained two points and remains in mid-single digits.

Palin dropped more than half her support from the last poll. Paul dropped nearly as much. Huntsman is still down in the noise.

The best result has to be for Newt Gingrich who doubled his support to 10%. That is two and a half times the points pickup that Cain had.

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 44% [46%] (41%) {43%} [44%] (45%)
• Rick Perry 38% [39%] (44%) {40%} [39%] (28%)

Among Independents

• Barack Obama 40%
• Rick Perry 29%

Among Men

• Rick Perry 44%
• Barack Obama 40%

Among Women

• Barack Obama 47%
• Rick Perry 33%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted September 22-23, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-15, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 29-30, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 17-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 6-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 1-14, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Perry carries just 68% of Republicans, while Obama has the backing of 77% of Democrats.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.