At the beginning of the month Texas Gov. Rick Perry seemed to be picking up unstoppable momentum on his way to the top of the GOP field. But after 3 poor debate performances, serious questions over the his previous positions, and charges of crony capitalism have stalled Perry’s rise. In some states, the governor has even seen a drop in his support, a fact best symbolized by his stunning loss in the Florida P5 straw poll. Despite his rocky month, Gov. Perry is still on pace for a solid first quarter of fundraising and enjoys considerable strengths among evangelicals, southerners, and Tea Party supporters.
Gov. Perry’s stumbles have allowed Gov. Mitt Romney to regain the top spot in the field, a spot he seemed destined to lose just a few weeks ago. Romney’s second run for the presidency is easily his better effort. His team has been extremely disciplined and the candidate has performed better than he ever has in the past. With uncertainty clouding Perry’s campaign, Romney has once again emerged as the candidate who can claim both competency and electability. However, a tougher challenge for Romney will be the possible entry of Gov. Chris Christie into the race.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has spent much of the past year denying any interest at all in running for president. But in the past few weeks Christie’s calculations seemed to have shifted, as scores of GOP leaders and donors have pleaded with the governor to enter the race. After a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, during which supporters openly begged him to toss his hat in the ring, Christie appears to have reconsidered his long-standing refusal to run. Should Christie ultimately take the plunge, he will be greeted with a ready-made campaign and a donor rolodex that has been dormant for much of the campaign cycle. It is easy to see how Christie could become the new frontrunner, however, Romney’s organization and Perry’s evangelical strength combined with an earlier primary calender will make the governor’s path more difficult than some realize.
Sarah Palin has sent several mixed signals lately about a potential run for president. First, her PAC sent out an email to supports suggesting they gear up for a soon-to-be-announced campaign. Then the former governor contradicted this notion on Fox News, once again questioning whether she needs ‘a title’ to make a difference. Palin has also stated that her previous self-imposed deadline of September 30 no longer stands, and that she could take until the end of October to make a decision. The question becomes how much longer will her supporters tolerate being strung along month to month?
Herman Cain was seemingly near the end of his campaign when he shocked the country with a huge upset win in the Florida P5 straw poll. Gov. Rick Perry had set his site on the straw poll and committed resources to winning it, only to be blown out by a surging Cain. Cain has also thrilled the base with his debating style and his catchy 9-9-9 plan. Tea Partiers dissatisfied with the crashing campaign of Rep. Michele Bachmann and the still stumbling Perry seem to be shifting heavily to the Hermanator.
Ron Paul has had another solid quarter of fundraising combined with mixed debate performances. His followers are out in force and are keeping him within the top 3 or 4 in most polls, though room for growth for Paul is difficult to see. Gov. Jon Huntsman closed up shop in Florida and moved his floundering campaign to New Hampshire where he will stay camped out for the next several weeks in the hopes of securing a McCain-like upset. Rick Santorum, along with Mr. Cain, is beginning to pick off supporters of the collapsing Bachmann and the stalling Perry. He has criticized the rest of the field more forcefully and effectively in the debates than the other contenders and may find an opening in Iowa. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich continues to dazzle in debates with little to show for it. Aside from his debate performances, Gingrich’s campaign is a flop and is already in debt. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter was apparently also running for president, but dropped out and endorsed Mitt Romney. Gary Johnson finally got back into the debates, but likely for the last time now that the benchmarks for qualification will begin to be harder for him to reach.
On to the rankings:
VP Watch: 1. Marco Rubio 2. Bob McDonnell 3. Rob Portman 4. Paul Ryan 5. Susana Martinez
September 30th, 2011 at 5:26 pm
Just one thing: I’d put Gingrich higher because his polling numbers have picked up and he has had good debate peformances.
September 30th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
1
I thought about it, but his campaign is in such bad shape staff wise, money wise, debt wise, that I felt no amount of debate points would help him. He’s surviving in the polls based on name ID alone at this point.
September 30th, 2011 at 5:29 pm
Flip Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich
September 30th, 2011 at 5:30 pm
2
Good point. And Huntsman is polling decently now in New Hampshire. Still, Huntsman is still in polling much lower than Gingrich nationally.
September 30th, 2011 at 5:34 pm
Yep, that’s me! Nice rankings all in all, Max.
Let Romney take the arrows at the next two debates.
Btw, where would Christie fit in on day one?
September 30th, 2011 at 5:36 pm
Christie/Rubio will be his next name.
September 30th, 2011 at 5:36 pm
Would he jump Perry the day he announces?
September 30th, 2011 at 5:40 pm
6.
Not a Christie fan at all. SoCon Conservatives only for the zillionth time
Perry
Huck
Pence
Bachmann
Rubio
Jeb
Kasich
McDonnell
September 30th, 2011 at 5:41 pm
I cannot see anyone but Romney winning this nomination, nor can I see anyone but Romney defeating Obama. Romney’s great conservative credentials, his tremendous pro-business record, and his smaller government outlook will bring untold prosperity to the United States.
September 30th, 2011 at 5:45 pm
3 poor debate performances, eh Max?
Weren’t you airing your credentials as a neutral observer when you said that Perry came out of the 2nd debate strong? You made that “analysis” based, not on the debate, but the polls at the time.
Of course, Perry’s lead shrank in half in the days after that debate.
September 30th, 2011 at 5:45 pm
Here’s Max’s flip:
http://race42012.com/2011/09/12/race-4-2012-cnntea-party-express-debate-open-forum/#comments
September 30th, 2011 at 5:47 pm
10 – Perry DID come out of the second debate strong. He was well ahead in the polls.
It wasn’t until he fumbled his attacks on Mitt and could barely form a sentence where the Right abandoned him for Cain.
September 30th, 2011 at 5:49 pm
12:
Take a look at the trend lines (Craig posted them often enough). The 2nd debate is around the time that Perry’s numbers started falling and Romney’s started rising. The gap was cut in half.
September 30th, 2011 at 5:53 pm
intrade;
Romney 47
Perry 19
September 30th, 2011 at 5:53 pm
13 – They leveled off. He didn’t fall behind in any polling until after the third debate – which is when Cain started to surge, because people initially inclined to support Perry were never going to go to Romney. They still won’t. Romney better hope that that bloc never consolidates behind a single candidate.
September 30th, 2011 at 6:05 pm
Cavuto had a pretty good interview of Huckabee on today. They discussed Christie potentially running, Huckabee being happy with the decision he made, “who is the favorite to win” and also quite a bit about Romney. http://video.foxnews.com/v/1193018672001/huckabee-happy-with-decision-not-to-run-for-president/?playlist_id=87485
September 30th, 2011 at 6:06 pm
wow……..perry is fallin’ at intrade! It’s continuing……….sorry….
September 30th, 2011 at 6:13 pm
15:
Oh, c’mon, you can’t read a chart?
In the five September polls before the September debate, Perry averaged a 10.8% lead. In the four polls between the 2nd and third poll, Perry was up an average of 6.5%
A 4.3% drop is rather big within a week.
September 30th, 2011 at 6:17 pm
*In the five September polls before the second, Perry averaged a 10.8% lead. In the four polls between the 2nd and third debate, Perry was up an average of 6.5%
Ugh, am I tired.
September 30th, 2011 at 6:21 pm
jmartpolitico
Perry on SocSecurity for seniors: “Those payments will be there Do not buy into any…scare tactic…”
12 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
Scare tactics by the Liberals/Romney.
September 30th, 2011 at 6:24 pm
RE: “VP Watch.” Is Kelly Ayotte on anyone’s radar?
September 30th, 2011 at 6:25 pm
21 – I hope not. She’s been senator, what a whole eight months?
September 30th, 2011 at 6:28 pm
22 — As long as Rubio, who has all sorts of buzz!
September 30th, 2011 at 6:29 pm
14. 17.
Remember, IA + SC = FL and the nomination SINCE 1980
INTRADE.COM:
Iowa Caucus (Republican)
Rick Perry to win the
2012 Iowa Caucus M Trade 38.0
M. Bachmann to win the
2012 Iowa Caucus M Trade 18.4
Mitt Romney to win the
2012 Iowa Caucus M Trade 21.0
South Carolina Primary (Republican)
Rick Perry to win the
2012 South Carolina Primary M Trade 40.0
Mitt Romney to win the
2012 South Carolina Primary M Trade 28.0
Ron Paul to win the
2012 South Carolina Primary M Trade 6.0
September 30th, 2011 at 6:36 pm
15. “Romney better hope that that bloc never consolidates behind a single candidate.”
You appear to have the misimpression that the followers of all candidates not named Romney have something in common.
Supporters of Paul/Gingritch/Huntsman are likely far closer to Romney than they are to Perry. They’re people who require intellect for persuasion rather than what makes them feel warm and fuzzy. They want someone that sounds intelligent and that can produce some concrete ideas. Bachman’s & Santorum’s following are probably in the “anybody but Romney” crowd or extremely close followers, but that’s it. The Cain followers are probably a split–1/2 love his business background and will likely move to Romney, & 1/2 see him as the only viable non-Romney after Pinocchio’s last debate disaster.
In ’07 Huck & Brownback shared a following that was obviously going to consolidate @ some point. However, there’s no such obvious consolidation scenario this time around.
September 30th, 2011 at 6:40 pm
24
Is that why Romney is up 60 to Perry’s 42
September 30th, 2011 at 6:45 pm
26
THAT’S IN FLORIDA,sorry i left that off
September 30th, 2011 at 6:45 pm
Huck’s interview with Romney will a positive for the Mitt Machine.
It will show the two have buried the hatched, and with Huck’s obvious distatse of Perry, it will be seen as a tacit endorsement.
Expect to Romney solidify his numbers with the SoCons following this. Maybe not enough to win IA and SC, but enought to neutralize a win there by anyone else. Florida will go Romney when all is said and done.
September 30th, 2011 at 7:01 pm
Willard loses Florida, he’s TOAST.
Game. Set. Match. Perry.
But how do you buck a 30 year streak (SC winner = FL winner) and a grassroots conservative candidate with seven SUPER PACS outraising you quarter after quarter after quarter in $$$?
September 30th, 2011 at 7:06 pm
We haven’t seen any perry fundraising numbers yet. I just posted a link or two, and there are plenty more, showing donors are reluctant to back Perry.
They may be holding back from Romney as well, but was the window closes on newbies, more and more Romney will pick up steam from endorsements and donors.
Perry is already being seen as limited in the general, and that will be the overriding issue in the end – electability. The GOP wants to win against Obama and Romney will deliver on that bigtime.
September 30th, 2011 at 7:10 pm
This poll demonstrates why Huck should be on the VP shortlist, especially for Romney:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/147452/Romney-GOP-Supporters-Tilt-Upscale-Palin-Downscale.aspx?version=print
September 30th, 2011 at 7:16 pm
By pointing out that the nomination has only been seriously contested 3 times in those 30 years.
September 30th, 2011 at 7:48 pm
29
More blah, blah, blahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
September 30th, 2011 at 8:09 pm
Romney busted AGAIN!
Is Romney’s Immigration Stance ‘Old News’ or a Potential Vulnerability?
By Beth Reinhard | Friday, September 30, 2011 | 5:09 p.m.
September 30th, 2011 at 8:25 pm
Now is a great time to buy Perry.
The MSM love a comeback story and one good debate he’ll be back on top.
Mitt still wins over time, but I predict that at some stage Perry will be the front-runner again and look the winner.
September 30th, 2011 at 8:40 pm
I don’t trust Christie and his backers and the strange way they are leaking things to the media. something’s just not right…I guess we’ll find out soon.
September 30th, 2011 at 8:54 pm
#34 “Why hasn’t Perry fired back?” Because Perry’s several “firings back” have back-fired.
Perry’s debate attack of Mitt back-fired. His video attacks won him a Pinocchio award. And picking on Mitt for hiring a lawn care company who hired an illegal is just stupid and it always was.
Have you asked for proof of citizenship for every person who’s ever worked on your property? Has Perry?
Perry’s done some dumb things but making an issue of lawncare is would be beyond petty. And would no doubt “back-fire.”
September 30th, 2011 at 8:55 pm
Perry is not a conservative. Yes, he is from Texas. No, he is not a conservative.
September 30th, 2011 at 8:56 pm
Perry cannot have a good debate unless there is a 1) teleprompter, 2) brain transplant, or 3) ventriloquist.
September 30th, 2011 at 10:00 pm
Christie and Palin are NOT running, so the rankings should be:
1. Romney
2. Perry
3. Cain
4. Huntsman
These are the only 4 people who can conceivably win the nomination. Perry will have to really suck it up and restore his image…..which I don’t think is possible, but Rick could prove me wrong.
Cain could, perhaps, parlay his Florida strength into campaign viability, but color me skeptical on this. In any event, he has some momentum going right now, and you never know where the Big Mo will go.
Finally, Huntsman is moving up in New Hampshire, and can’t, due to personal attributes and resources, be categorically counted out, although it is admittedly something of a long-shot at this point. If his upward potential in NH is higher than I perceive it to be, that would be a game-changer.
September 30th, 2011 at 10:18 pm
I don’t know why anyone ever thought Perry had a shot–I certainly didn’t. He was always going to be a dud. However, it did take longer than I thought for it to become obvious.
Next.
September 30th, 2011 at 10:19 pm
Romney has made it virtually impossible for anyone to mount a serious challenge against him. Even Christie, the rock star of the party, would have a tough hill to climb.
October 1st, 2011 at 9:02 am
You Perry peeps call yourselves conservatives? You are center if not dems. Perry illegal alien instate tuition 88000 dollars over 4 years discount if your illegally in our country,Binational health insurance with Mexico,Giving an executive order to give std preventive shot to little girls to line his pockets. Doubled taxes in tx in the last 8 yrs or so and still being what like 9 billion over budget? I could go on but whats the point. if you back a man like this you cannot call yourself conservative ! Wake up and stop being foolish this is not the time to be foolish !
October 1st, 2011 at 9:31 am
25. “Supporters of Paul/Gingritch/Huntsman are likely far closer to Romney than they are to Perry.”
We must not be watching the same race. There isn’t a chance in Hades that any Ron Paul supporter will EVER vote for Romney….EVER. They would probably swing their 10% to Obama rather than a phony who will simply out-Obama Obama (incidentally, a 20% swing of Paulbots tanks the election for the GOP…better find a way to keep them or just hope the party can overcome a 10% loss if they go 3rd party)! And Newt people I would have to think are closer to Perry all the way! I guess you’re right on Huntsman….the cousins are very similar and since they’re both left-leaning centrist moderates, one could easily hop between them…
October 1st, 2011 at 10:24 am
Finally returned to your sense I see.
October 1st, 2011 at 11:32 am
44.
Exactly right on with your analysis.