This was unexpected:
Nevada Republicans will allow Florida to jump ahead of them on the presidential nominating calendar to preserve the state’s full slate of delegates to the Republican National Convention, state GOP chairwoman Amy Tarkanian said Friday.
The rub was this: the RNC rules gave four states (IA, NH, NV, and SC) permission to go before March 6. However, those same rules said the RNC would penalize even those four states if they jumped before February 1. Everyone assumed that with Florida jumping to January 31, the RNC would waive the second part of that rule – allowing IA, NH, NV, and SC to jump back to January with no penalty.
Well, earlier today the RNC made it clear that “the rules are the rules” and that those four early states would indeed lose half their delegates if they moved.
In light of losing half their delegates, the Nevada GOP executive board met tonight and decided to break away from the other three early states and stay in February. They will meet again tomorrow night to choose a date. The Politico article linked mentions that February 4 would be a natural choice for them…
September 30th, 2011 at 10:45 pm
As a Perry supporter, I can certainly live with the NEW first four contests order:
IA to NH to SC to FL.
And then, 5th: Governor Sandoval’s Nevada.
September 30th, 2011 at 10:48 pm
So that makes Florida 4th then. They missed their target!
September 30th, 2011 at 10:49 pm
Move the caucus states so they lose 1/2 their votes, since caucus voting is pretty lame already.
September 30th, 2011 at 10:57 pm
Rick you are dreaming if you think Perry retains a lead in Nevada. Nevada is Romney territory. The trouble Romney has in the South, Perry has in Nevada. I know some poll or other said not, but it is a caucus state and that favors Romney and it is friendly to Mormons. In fact, Sharon Angle’s hostility to Mormons likely lost her Nevada.
Romney will win NH, Florida, and Nevada. And since Haley has indicated a preference for a businessman over a poltician, she may bring along the GOP machinery to give Romney the win in SC too.
Only Iowa favors Perry. And Perry loses ground everyday. He may not even be a factor by the time voting starts.
But who knows, Huckabee may surprise us and endorse Romney and he will win Iowa too.
September 30th, 2011 at 10:59 pm
1
I think your forgetting something…… all four of those states will loose half of their delegates
September 30th, 2011 at 11:04 pm
The most interesting factor, to me, is how brilliant FL was in their date selection. They ensured that any state going ahead of them would take the same hit FL is taking. The Repubs need to re-evaluate their rules for the next cycle. FL outsmarted everyone.
September 30th, 2011 at 11:04 pm
#5…Except for Florida, IA, NH, and SC don’t realy have a lot of delegates, so it’s more about momentum building.
It sucks that NV won’t be before SC, but that’s life.
However, there is no Super Tuesday led by California like last time, so the fight will probably go on well after Florida.
Now if Mitt could pull out a stealth win in Iowa, so that we can get on to the business of beating Obama…
September 30th, 2011 at 11:07 pm
The article states that Nevada will probably stay in February. It’s not a done deal yet.
Also, Iowa will not lose half its delegates because its delegates are not binding by the results of the precinct caucuses.
September 30th, 2011 at 11:08 pm
IOWA 14
NH 11
SC 25
FL 48
NV 28
And there all proportional
Romney would still be in the lead after NV
September 30th, 2011 at 11:09 pm
Somebody on Fox the other day suggesting the Perry campaign pushed FL (and thus other states) up because a short campaign favors him and Romney. Has anyone heard this? Do you believe it?
September 30th, 2011 at 11:09 pm
The SC winner has not only won Florida as well — but has also been our Republican nominee since all the way back to 1980.
Can Christie or Romney end that 30 plus year streak? Possibly but highly doubtful. Could either Christie or Romney WIN in SC against a southerner and Air Force veteran like 10 1/2 year governor Perry. Again, highly doubtful.
(Even with Romney outspending McCain 10 to 1 in ’08 FL to no avail — perhaps Mitt could try 20 to 1 by self funding on an even larger scale? We’ll see in a few months.)
September 30th, 2011 at 11:11 pm
11
And the Red Socks are usually in the playoffs, history is just that, history
September 30th, 2011 at 11:13 pm
10. Possible because Perry and Florida’s Governor Scott are like brothers.
September 30th, 2011 at 11:14 pm
None of the first four states are safe for anyone at this point.
Perry’s rapid decline could easily leave IA in Mitt’s control–or Bachman’s, or someone else’s.
NH seems certain to go to Mitt, unless Christie runs–then it could be a toss up.
SC, for the same reason as IA, could be anyone’s.
FL seems to naturally be going to Mitt, but could easily go to someone else based on momentum.
However, Mitt (regardless of how he does through the first 4) will win everything between FL & Super Tuesday: NV, AZ, MI, CO. (Even Christie wouldn’t shake up those outcomes.)
Thus, if Mitt does well w/the first 4 states, it’s over. However, if Mitt has disappointing losses through 4, he’ll still be in a strong position entering Super Tuesday.
September 30th, 2011 at 11:18 pm
10. I heard the same exact thing. Someone on Fox was visibly pissed about it, so I’m guessing there’s something to it.
Personally, I think it’s good for the party. Things need to be decided. Those who wanna run need to get in soon. The endless guessing is not good for the party imo.
September 30th, 2011 at 11:21 pm
This new order would have been ideal for Huckabee.
September 30th, 2011 at 11:25 pm
16, so… he IS getting in the race then. It’s a conspiracy!
Also, I think we get it that “The SC winner has not only won Florida as well — but has also been our Republican nominee since all the way back to 1980.” Do you get that we don’t really care? Like thetruth said, history is history. If I flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads 8 times, is it more likely that it will be heads or tails the next time? It will still be 50/50.
September 30th, 2011 at 11:25 pm
Iowa ’08: Huck over Romney by about 10
South Carolina ’08: Huck beat Romney by about 15
And now Huck LIVES in Florida with Rubio in his pocket.
But I don’t think he’s feelin’ it (unless Trump gives a Huck Super PAC about $1OO mil tomorrow
).
September 30th, 2011 at 11:29 pm
17.
Politics 101:
It’s all about the momentum obtained in winning the very first primary of the SOUTH — and then imediately carrying that into Florida.
Since 1980, it’s GOLD!
September 30th, 2011 at 11:30 pm
*immediately
September 30th, 2011 at 11:32 pm
19, and that is the ONLY reason that tradition holds. Like 14 bloodshy said, this year is different. Florida does not immediately lead into Super Tuesday like normal. There are several states before then that highly favor Romney. That is a huge chance to slow the momentum that anyone would get from the Florida win. (And I’m confident that Romney will perform well in all four starting states, especially once Haley and DeMint endorse him)
September 30th, 2011 at 11:37 pm
Nevada made the right decision in keeping all of their delegates. Mitt should win New Hampshire and Florida easily, and could wind up winning all 4 of the states before Nevada. Right now he’s ahead in Iowa, although maintaining that depends on several factors….including campaigning in the state enough to increase his numbers, but not enough to unite the opposition into one camp.
The key to his winning SC is either winning Iowa, which would cinch it, or getting the twin endorsements of DeMint and Haley. After that, and his Florida win, victories in Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Colorado will complete the process.
Looking GOOD!!!
September 30th, 2011 at 11:40 pm
The funny thing is, this might actually make Florida less relevant if Craig’s scenario plays out. Let’s say for a moment that Perry manages to win Iowa, S. Carolina, and Florida somehow.
Romney would still win Nevada. Romney would still win Colorado. Romney would still win Arizona. Romney would still win Michigan. That would more than put him back in the race by the time Super Tuesday comes around.
Instead of making Florida decisive, moving the state this far forward may end up hurting the state’s relevance. It’s strongest position would have been if they’d stayed in a slot just before Super Tuesday. Then we could say that whoever wins Florida is assured of winning everything.
September 30th, 2011 at 11:48 pm
Yup, Pat Caddell just now on Hannity claiming both the Perry and Romney campaigns “engineered” the Fl move-up in order to “keep Christie out.”
I guess they would rather complete with each other than have Christie in the mix. Well, no kidding.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:01 am
This whole “Process [X] has picked our nominee since 1980″ is smoke and mirrors. In 1980, we got Reagan. 1984, he was the incumbent. 1988, Bush 41 was VP, and basically retained power of incumbency. 1992, Bush incumbent. 1996, the first real GOP primary in 16 years, Dole won it. 2000, another hotly contest GOP primary. 2004, Bush incumbent. 2008, contested.
So there you have it. 1980, 1996, 2000, and 2008. Let’s drop this whole “it’s happened this way for 30 years!” crap and acknowledge that it’s happened 4 times in 30 years instead. Big deal.
I’m in NV. This is Romney territory.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:03 am
#11.. Perhaps Perry could try telling the truth for once.
That’s probably the fastest way for him to boost his campaign…
October 1st, 2011 at 12:04 am
Dave Says:
September 30th, 2011 at 11:37 pm
“Right now he’s(Romney) ahead in Iowa”
Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Polling Data
RCP Average 8/19 – 8/31 Perry +6.4
Rasmussen 8/31 – 8/31 Perry +11
Magellan 8/22 – 8/23 Perry +2
PPP (D) 8/19 – 8/21 Perry +3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html
October 1st, 2011 at 12:05 am
26, I think Perry would be surprised at how well people would respond (or how they won’t respond negatively to him as much).
October 1st, 2011 at 12:06 am
27, did you really just throw old polls up again? Really?
October 1st, 2011 at 12:09 am
Those polls are over a month old and represent Perry’s peak. Stop posting irrelevance.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:10 am
Yes Jeff, he did. Polls that are a month old, before Perry was even vetted before three awful debate performances. Craig has lost all basis in reality.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:12 am
Meanwhile Perry continue to slowly decline on Intrade:
Perry: 19.4%
Romney: 46%
October 1st, 2011 at 12:15 am
25.GNV Says:
October 1st, 2011 at 12:01 am
“I’m in NV. This is Romney territory.”
Did you happen to vote for the great Gov Sandoval of Nevada who fully endorsed Perry over Flip Flop Mitt?
Nevada Republican Presidential Caucus Polling Data
Magellan Strategies (R) 8/29 – 8/31 631 LV Perry +5
PPP (D) 7/28 – 7/31 732 LV Romney +13
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_republican_presidential_primary-1768.html
October 1st, 2011 at 12:21 am
Stop it. We don’t care about your old polls. It’s October. That poll is from August when Perry was a superstar who no one knew anything about. Please stop posting polls that are COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT. It isn’t cute, and it doesn’t convince ANYONE that Perry has a chance.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:22 am
South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Polling Data
RCP.COM Average 8/22 – 9/18 Perry +12.7
October 1st, 2011 at 12:32 am
32.
Updated..
INTRADE.COM:
Iowa Caucus (Republican)
Rick Perry to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus 34.0
M. Bachmann to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus 18.4
Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus 21.0
South Carolina Primary (Republican)
Rick Perry to win
2012 South Carolina Primary 37.5
Mitt Romney to win
2012 South Carolina Primary 28.0
Ron Paul to win
2012 South Carolina Primary 6.0
October 1st, 2011 at 12:38 am
Rick you are way over estimating Perry. The polling is old and only measuring that entry bounce he got. That bubble burst.
Romney’s support in Nevada is deep.
McCain thought he could get Nevada too. Because it is Arizona’s neighbor. Heck McCain was a senator from Arizona and he only got 48% of the Arizona vote against Romney!!!
Without Romney McCain would likely have swept the West.
Romney is very popular in the West. In fact I think I have been seeing on TV a hidden vote for Romney that was waiting to see if he could overcome his negatives to last this long. He now has people starting to support him openly.
There is a stigma to supporting Romney. But he is overcoming it.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:46 am
24. I think that moving Florida up probably was forcing Chritie’s hand. And Palin’s. This waiting for a fantasy perfect candidate is hurting the Party right now and it is a silly game that should just end. Get the voting started.
Lou Dobbs said today that people should be suspicious about the billionarie support that is trying to pull Christie in. I wish he had said more, but he was defintely saying there was something fishy about the people trying to get Christie in.
I don’t know if it was opinion or what. But it was strange.
The money people seem to be starting to back Romney now.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:47 am
If you’re going to post Iowa and South Carolina Intrade numbers, then let’s look at New Hampshire and Florida, shall we?
Mitt Romney to win
2012 New Hampshire 74.0
Rick Perry to win
2012 New Hampshire 7.0
Jon Huntsman to win
2012 New Hampshire 5.0
and Florida
Mitt Romney to win
2012 Florida 60
Rick Perry to win
2012 Florida 45
Herman Cain to win
2012 Florida 9
October 1st, 2011 at 12:49 am
Iowa – Rick Perry +13
South Carolina – Rick Perry +9.5
New Hampshire – Mitt Romney +67
Florida – Mitt Romney +15
October 1st, 2011 at 12:49 am
How’s THAT for context?
October 1st, 2011 at 1:06 am
33
I did happen to vote for Sandoval, yes. Because the other option was voting for Reid’s kid. No-brainer.
I’m not surprised that flip-flop Sandoval endorsed flip-flop Perry. They’re both former Dems parading as Republicans.
Sandoval’s also new to the scene out here. The Republicans people actually know (like Krolicki) have endorsed Romney. Their opinion has more weight.
October 1st, 2011 at 1:11 am
Nice posts, Jeff. It’s good to have the whole record out there, as it stands currently.
October 1st, 2011 at 1:13 am
Hey RickPerry I just read an article that said Perry was sinking fast in Iowa. And Romney rising. It was Newsmax I think.
You need to try to stay up to date better.
Perry’s feeble attempts to attack Romney have been such trite old stuff that he is becoming a parody of the typical attack candidate that everyone hates. Negative campaigns don’t really go over that well outside of Texas I guess.
October 1st, 2011 at 1:17 am
Haley made some pretty pro-Romney sounding statements the other day. But is she popular enough to bring voters to Romney in SC?
SC is going to be the roughest Romney will face probably in the entire country, and it is so early.
If Huck were to give Romney the nod… either directly or in that code the evangelicals seem to have… would that give Romney a chance in SC? I know it would help in Iowa, but SC bias is deeper and less educated.
October 1st, 2011 at 1:20 am
Jeff, could you imagine Craig posting a poll showing Perry getting pummeled? Nope! He never even tries to explain or show dissatisfaction, just comes back with outdated crap.
October 1st, 2011 at 1:27 am
Guys, more crap on Perry’s corruption about to hit the fan! Obama has NOTHING on this hick, I’m afraid. This is truly scary stuff man!!! WHAT else has this dirty politician been invoked with???
http://americaneedsmitt.com/blog/2011/09/22/perrys-convergen-scandal-hit-fan/
October 1st, 2011 at 2:36 am
I hope the RNC puts in more punishing rules in the near future. Perhaps with a “if you move within one year of the primary/caucus date” clause.
Frankly, it’s difficult enough to plan a campaign, the candidates should be able to work with a solid idea of what states are the early states.
I’m not advocating any of the current early states, or speaking out against them. I don’t care who the early states are very much (though perhaps it would be beneficial to change them), I’m mostly irritated that this far into the campaign season these states are playing games that are screwing around with the campaigns. They need to figure it out earlier, or get docked 100% of their delegates.
Idiots. “we want to be more important, no no, WE must be more important!” what a bunch of garbage waiting until mere months before the primary voting starts to jockey for position. Nobody wins if the candidates can’t plan their campaigns to get their message across.
…except Romney, due to name recognition, I suppose?
October 1st, 2011 at 3:01 am
48
Agreed, NightOwl. I absolutely hate this year-and-a-half primary that became “the thing to do” back in 2003 with the Dems. I hate even more that our side has cemented it as a tradition.
I suspect that as more people get fed up with neverending primaries, a bigger push for limitations will enter the mainstream. I’d be fine with a 6-month maximum primary campaign–nobody gets to hold any elections until May. And screw IA/NH for having to be “first.”
October 1st, 2011 at 6:02 am
And Perry continues to plunge on Intrade:
Romney: 46%
Perry: 18%
October 1st, 2011 at 9:33 am
Hmm…
Less than good news for Mitt, unfortunately. Nevada was going to be a fairly big momentum builder for him to hedge against a potential Iowa loss (that said, with Perry falling, and Romney currently leading in Iowa, the need for a hedge is far less – even if Chritie were to “flip-flop” and jump in).
======
“I suspect that as more people get fed up with neverending primaries, a bigger push for limitations will enter the mainstream. I’d be fine with a 6-month maximum primary campaign–nobody gets to hold any elections until May. And screw IA/NH for having to be “first.””
Maybe I could understand some limits, for example – get into the race between August and September, vote March – May, hold the conventions in July, and then have a longer general election.
October 1st, 2011 at 9:38 am
“And Perry continues to plunge on Intrade:
Romney: 46%
Perry: 18% ”
Surprisingly, the chances of Christie entering the race (according to intrade) have not increased during this time.
October 1st, 2011 at 11:01 am
#48 and 49: I do give Nevada credit for sticking to the rules and keeping their caucus in February. I don’t think they (or IA, NH, and SC) should have been given the February preference in the first place, but at least they aren’t making the situation worse by moving to January.
October 1st, 2011 at 11:23 am
46, you’ll notice that he hasn’t come back since I posted those either. He had nothing left to say to defend himself.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:07 pm
Excellent work today Jeff, both in posting numbers for context and shooing away a most annoying gnat.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:10 pm
Once Christie decides not run, the money and endorsements will move to Mitt. There are no more White Knights left to be drafted.
Perry will be forced to play the attack dog and it won’t go over well, since he is so clumsy and ham fisted. People won’t be into it and the more he hits the lower he’ll sink.
October 1st, 2011 at 1:02 pm
Even if there were “white knights” left, by the time Christie says no, it’ll be too late for anyone else.
October 1st, 2011 at 1:16 pm
Unless Nevada awards delegates on the same day they are not subject to penalties. If I was choosing a date for the NH primary, I would put it into December just to make the RNC look like idiots. Cooperation once the primaries are over forget it.
The trouble with the RNC is they are a bunch of wimps. Sad to say the DNC had more guts when they took away all of Florida and Michigan’s delegates. I would have told Florida if you move, you lose it all.
October 1st, 2011 at 2:07 pm
Apparently this story is not true. They have been meeting about the issue but the first meeting was inconclusive. Here is a tweet from a reporter covering it.
@RalstonFlash Report from GOP executive board meeting from insider: No final decisions. Will reconvene Saturday night.
The headline should be Nevada to Move May Remain in February.
October 1st, 2011 at 4:01 pm
IOWA 14
NH 11
SC 25
FL 48
NV 28
=================================
Iowa would have all of their delegates. NH is proportional. SC is winner take all. Florida has 50 and some of their delegates will be proportional.