September 29, 2011

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA 2012 Florida GOP Primary Poll

SurveyUSA 2012 Florida GOP Primary Poll

If the Florida Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich? Michele Bachmann? Ron Paul? Rick Perry? Herman Cain? Rick Santorum? Jon Huntsman? Or one of the other Republican candidates?

  • Mitt Romney 27%
  • Herman Cain 25%
  • Rick Perry 13%
  • Newt Gingrich 6%
  • Ron Paul 5%
  • Michele Bachmann 5%
  • Jon Huntsman 3%
  • Rick Santorum 2%
  • Other/undecided 16%

500 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%.

by @ 11:14 am. Filed under Poll Watch
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103 Responses to “Poll Watch: SurveyUSA 2012 Florida GOP Primary Poll”

  1. Thomas Alan Says:

    1. Wow, look at Cain and Perry.
    2. This is Survey USA, they don’t publish junk. We’ll have to see this confirmed somewhere, but they’re a solid polling company if anyone is.
    3. Looks like Mitt’s pandering on Social Security is paying off bigtime. His lead is built on senior support.
    4. Perry’s Hispanic pandering bought him NOTHING. He’s doing worse with Hispanics than he is with whites. And you know his support among whites took a huge hit.
    5. Bachmann seems to be the only one doing well with Hispanics…that I don’t get.

  2. Kavon W. Nikrad Says:

    SurveyUSA is one of the best state polling outfits there is. The movement in Florida is real folks…

  3. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Whoa.

    The real story here is Huntsman up to 3%!!!!!!!!

    Cain replacing Perry as the Anti-Mitt gets the byline…

  4. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Craig for Perry better start shopping again. I think his Perry ride has been shorter than his Bachmann ride.

  5. Jerald Says:

    Wow, Go Romney, Go Cain!

    More spreading of the loose bowel syndrome within Team Perry…

  6. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Cue Craig spamming stale polls and irrelevent cross tabs in 5…..4…..3…..2….

  7. Jerald Says:

    #4…Matt, should we start betting Betting Baghdad Craig gets on the Cain train next?

  8. Matt "MWS" Says:

    So I figure once Cain drops out inexplicably, his support all goes to Huntsman.

    That makes the reeeeeeal race:

    Huntsman 28%
    Romney 27%

  9. Metro Says:

    Let’s take bets on Craig’s new name.

    Cain/???

  10. Reginald from Texas Says:

    Perry is dead in the water in Florida. Most voters have moved on from Perry in Florida. He is no longer a viable alternative for them.

  11. Jerald Says:

    If Cain becomes the strongest candidate after Mitt, I wonder if we could be looking at a Romney/Cain ticket?

  12. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Jerald,

    He will definitely be cursing the Cain campaign next.

    Can you believe he told Smacks that Smacks is a jinx for campaigns, with absolutely no sense of irony?

    Romney’s had a pretty good couple weeks since Smacks came back. Craig is on his third campaign, soon to be fourth. He always gets ‘em about 2 weeks before they peak.

  13. MarqueG Says:

    Craigfer, I hereby appeal to you to change your moniker to Romney/Huntsman!

  14. Jerald Says:

    MWS……Sorry man, but I just don’t see a Romney/Huntsman ticket.

    A ticket of two rich, white Mormons might be just too much for the MSM and conspirational far right religious extremists to take ;)

  15. Jerald Says:

    #13…LOL

    MarqueQ…..Enough of that reverse psycology stuff! :D

  16. Alvin Says:

    What a collapse by Gov. Perry! That debate performance was epic in every sense of the word. The unofficial end of his campaign.

  17. Conservative Dude Says:

    Florida RCP average: Romney +4.6

    I don’t see Perry’s name on Florida. lol

  18. marK Says:

    Matt.“Craig for Perry better start shopping again. I think his Perry ride has been shorter than his Bachmann ride.”

    Given his history, you had better pray that he doesn’t pick Huntsman.

  19. Greg Says:

    Perry can’t win in Florida, so he can’t win the nomination. He’ll spend his time trying to tear down Romney for the next few months, but it will only make Romney stronger. Perry’s campaign team is a reactionary one, not really having a strategy or any specifics. They expected to just appear on the national stage and overwhelm the GOP, and now they don’t know what to do other than act out angrily, and they are getting hurt by it.

  20. Jerald Says:

    Of course, Perry’s dismal debate hurt him.

    But what I think hurt him even more was people got a look at the tip of the iceberg that is Perry’s record and positions.

    Like one former Perry backer wrote, “Yikes!”

  21. hamaca Says:

    9. Take bets on his new name and the length of time it remains as such.

  22. Jerald Says:

    Maybe Baghdad Craig has returned to sitting on the beach contemplating the waves…

  23. Alvin Says:

    20,

    I believe that was Kristol! And he summed it up perfectly.

  24. Ben (One of those MittWits) Says:

    Man – Craig for FOTM is gonna have a hard time now……does he go back to Bachmann in seat #2 with a Cain/Bachmann moniker? or a Cain/Perry?

    Maybe we can get Craig’s name change options up on Intrade. :D

  25. Booyeah Says:

    Where’s Craig?

  26. Alvin Says:

    21,

    Cain or Santorum/whoever

  27. hamaca Says:

    Are Perry’s top campaign people the ones who were previously with Gingrich? After seeing their performance, maybe he said “don’t let the door hit you on the way out”.

  28. Jerald Says:

    Intrade

    Probability of Baghdad Craig not showing his face around Race 4 ’12 for the next day or two

    Up to 50% :D

  29. Booyeah Says:

    27, good point. Gingrich must be loving this poetic justice.

  30. Jerald Says:

    Blogging for Dummies–How Not to Make Friends and Influence People

    By Baghdad Craig

    :D :D

  31. RayinRI Says:

    #21,
    “Take bets on his new name and the length of time it remains as such.”

    As long as his name doesn’t start with Romney!! Also, maybe he can do us all a favor and change his name to Obama/Biden for the general election, that would be the final nail in Obama’s re-election coffin :)

  32. Dave Says:

    The Romney supporters who voted for Cain in the Straw Poll to humiliate Perry might have overdone it. Still, my bet is that Cain is a Florida phenomenon more than a national one. It would be difficult for Herman to become the anti-Romney because he and Mitt really like each other, and both have too much integrity to go negative on each other.

    I like Cain a lot, and I especially like his 9/9/9 plan….but that plan, while being a brilliant potential boon to the economy, renders him unelectable in the General. Right now, there is NO national sales tax. How enthusiastic do you suppose the folks are going to be about adding a 9% sales tax to everything they buy??

    Right now, half the citizens of this country don’t pay any income tax. How excited are they going to be to suddenly pay 9% on every dollar they make to the government??

    Romney’s plan cuts taxes where it will benefit the economy the most, while maximizing his ability to defeat Obama.

  33. Thomas Alan Says:

    Where’s Craig?

    He hides for a few days whenever news is so bad he can’t possibly spin it.

    After Perry’s collapse last week, he was pretty much gone all weekend until that CNN poll came out saying Perry was still on top. Then he was an insufferable jerk for a few days reposting those old polls. Now he’s probably off licking his wounds again.

  34. Thomas Alan Says:

    32:

    Personally, I hate any form of sales tax for the federal government.

  35. Alvin Says:

    I believe Craig’s argument after the FOX national poll came out was that it was an outlier. I would be curious to hear his response now. It might be hard for him to comprehend how bad Gov. Perry’s debate peformance was, but it was THAT bad.

  36. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Dave,

    The WSJ liked Huntsman’s tax plan best. :-P

  37. Booyeah Says:

    I just don’t think Cain will be able to raise money. Outside of the “yeah, right” reaction most voters will give him when push comes to shove, I don’t think he can make it past Iowa. He won’t win at all until, maaaaaaybe South Carolina, but that’s three contests lost in a row.

    Ultimately, I think his poll numbers come back to Earth, money dries up, and he endorses Romney by Christmas.

    Just a hunch. But I like him very much, and unlike Perry, I don’t have an issue with him rising. He is rising not because of cultural cues, but because he is an articulate messenger of conservative principles in an exciting, good-humored package.

  38. asparagus Says:

    Perry’s best bet at this point is to forget Romney and start talking about Jesus in Iowa, basically run the Huckabee campaign.

  39. Matt "MWS" Says:

    I will also bet that once Craig starts pushing Cain (sorry, Herman, it’s coming), he will forget everything he said about 10 1/2 year governors and extol the lack of government experience as a virtue.

  40. LV Says:

    Perry has nobody to blame but himself…

  41. asparagus Says:

    I am firmly opposed to a national sales tax. We have too many national taxes. Bad idea to add one more.

  42. Smack1968 Says:

    Matt ” MWS”

    Yep..Craig thinks I’m a jink.

    I supported the following in the GOP nomination…

    1988 – Kemp (still proud of that)loss
    1996 – Nobody(Still proud of that)
    2000 – W. Bush (Stillproud of that)won
    2008 – McCain (Still proud of that)won
    2012 – TPAW (Still proud of that)loss
    - 2nd pick Romney – won

    Not a dope or a nut job in the bunch.

    Romney beat my ass this time..I’m smart enough to have figured this out.

    Romney has beaten Craig’s ass, but he can’t handle the truth..so he reaches out to nutjobs like Bachmann..until her numbers sink of course.

    Romney/Rubio 2012

    The start of the next Great American Comeback!!

  43. the truth Says:

    The GOP electorate got to know Perry and didn’t like him. I wonder what will happen when they get to know Cain ???

    To all you Rombots out there – Gingrich is the one you should really be afraid of…..

  44. Booyeah Says:

    Smack…..you impress me.

  45. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Smacks,

    I’m not sure who is worse, Bachmann or Perry. I guess it depends if one is willing to accept a ton of corruption to get a small modicum of competency.

  46. MarqueG Says:

    Craigfer, don’t listen to MWS in 39. Mitt’s your man! He’s got the cleared, leveled, and gemstone-paved path to the nomination. And Cain really isn’t your type, lacking in government and campaign experience and such.

    Reporting from a remote location, the Brain Trust recommends:
    Romney/Bachmann
    Romney/Huntsman
    Romney/Romney (’cause he’s the only one who matches his own awesomeness)

  47. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Marque,

    Don’t get me wrong. I HOPE Craig jumps on the Romney bandwagon. It may be Huntsman’s only hope!

  48. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Apparently, Ricky P does know how to read. After a week or so of intense soul searching, he decided he’s sorry about calling conservatives heartless.

    http://thehill.com/video/campaign/184433-perry-apologies-for-heartless-immigration-comment-pushes-border-bona-fides

  49. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Perry’s getting desperate, and pulling out the big guns to try to change the subject.

  50. Thomas Alan Says:

    49:

    Y’know, I’m not much of a gun guy. Never even held a gun that was loaded. But I admit I’m a sucker for when politicians start shooting things.

  51. Dave Says:

    Matt,

    I have to confess that I like Huntsman’s plan even better than I like Mitt’s or Herman’s. Not that it matters, because I think this will be Mitt’s year to triumph, and I think Mitt’s support in New Hampshire is so solid that Jon will come up short.

    Huntsman’s only hope is that the Anybody But Mitt crowd settles on him as their final White Knight. That could happen, for wont of alternatives…..but I’m a lot less impressed with their clout than Max is.

  52. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    I love it. I’m hearing Rush talk about Reagan. Too bad he doesn’t see the parallels between Romney and Reagan especially how Romney is not loved as a conservative among the kingmaker establishment. Rush claims conservatism in the mold of Reagan but pushes for people like Palin and Perry who couldn’t hold a candle to Reagan in depth. He overlooks Reagan’s own moderate and even blatant liberal governance in California. He talks about Reagan’s ability to reach out to Dems as a conservative yet overlooks how much he compromised as president with the Dems to get things done. There are policies that Reagan pushed through that were liberal and we need to see it for what it was and from Reagan’s perspective it was compassionate, i.e., federal mandatory emergency care and amnesty for illegals. Rush is definitely a little misguided in his perception of Reagan. Rush believes that Reagan was a blowhard and that was how he pushed the conservative movement. Reagan was able to articulate and persuade. He used his mandate effectively from a terrible time in America with a very liberal president. Romney can do the same but in a more strategic and intellectual way that will resonate with the non-believers. With Romney conservativism has the chance to be advanced like never before.

  53. Bloodshy Says:

    51. “Huntsman’s only hope is that the Anybody But Mitt crowd settles on him…”

    Impossible. The anybody but Mitt crowd have three things they hate about Mitt–1 spoken, 2 unspoken. 1) They call him a liberal–Huntsman’s record is moderate in a red state. He doesn’t fill that void. 2) Mitt’s Mormon & many of the haters hate him for this even though they revert to 1 as their criticism–Huntsman, again, can’t fill the anti-Mormon void. 3) Unbuyable–As much as I don’t love Huntsman, I think he is also unbuyable. The cronies won’t like Huntsman either.

  54. Perry/Jeb for 2012! Says:

    Congrats to Obama-Lite but thank God it’s ONLY temporary. :)

    Florida Republican Presidential PrimaryPolling Data

    RCP Average 9/14 – 9/27 Romney +4.6

    SurveyUSA 9/24 – 9/27 Romney +2
    PPP (D) 9/22 – 9/25 Romney +6
    Quinnipiac 9/14 – 9/19 Perry +6

  55. Bloodshy Says:

    54. “Congrats to Obama-Lite but thank God it’s ONLY temporary.”

    As opposed to when Perry was permanently in the lead…

  56. Perry/Jeb for 2012! Says:

    •Jon Huntsman 3%

    ROTFLMAO!! ;)

  57. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Craig will be gone from this site for a while now.

    Let’s all breathe a collective sigh of relief… aaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh……..

  58. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    56

    Never mind, I take 57 back.

    Ugh…

  59. Ben (One of those MittWits) Says:

    54. Craig was just showing us the beginning of Romney’s upcoming streak – he’s at 3. Perry made it to 17.

  60. DaveG Says:

    Unlike Perry, I at least respect Herman Cain, but I don’t think he’s a sustainable frontrunner should he move into the lead. At that point, the scrutiny will be on him, and his views on Muslims will be questioned, his lack of a foreign policy will come up, etc. Cain seems almost woefully inadequate at discussing any topic that deviates from business and economics. He generally resorts to applause lines like “Repeal ObamaCare!” That only gets you so far.

    But the nice thing about a Cain boomlet is that he will at least be evaluated by primary voters on the merits. Unlike Perry, he doesn’t have the cultural cues to deflect attention from his substance. Perry was trying very hard to make his campaign about the sense of validation that Southerners and evangelicals would feel at having one of their own back in the White House. Cain can’t play that game, and that’s a good thing, because then the race becomes about the issues.

  61. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    The great thing about having all these candidates jump in is that in the end should Romney come out on top, which I believe he will. This conservative trial by fire benefits him the most. Everyone will have to agree that Romney is conservative in the end as he enters the ring against Obama.

  62. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    Rush claiming Rubio was Tea Party is false. Rubio was a conservative, articulate, and persuasive. Rush talks about Rubio’s supporters claiming it was Jim DeMint. Romney was there in the beginning for him too. Let’s not forget.

  63. Ben (One of those MittWits) Says:

    Anybody think that Herman being treated so nicely during the “Who would you pick as your VP” question round gave some additional boost to his poll numbers?

  64. Jaehos Says:

    The strange part about that poll is the Cell Phone data. I’m guessing cell phone = younger voter who might be more open to a Cain? I don’t follow the polls enough to know if other outfits also use Cell Phone data, but the landline numbers are very impressive for Romney.

  65. wateredseeds Says:

    Man….looks like Paul’s support is drying up too. That makes me sad. He was beginning to poll pretty decent…now not so much. Pretty soon i’ll be making my way to the romney camp. I don’t love the guy…but he can bring us back as a country. He’s positionally pro-life, and he can beat obama. We could be looking at a 49 state wipeout like Reagan if it’s the right ticket. Romney/Rubio.

  66. Jeff Says:

    64, I think that would tend to be the case.

  67. Steven S Says:

    Florida internals for Vs. Obama are brutal for Gingrich, Bachmann, and now PERRY.

  68. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    Romney’s base strength nationally is at or around 20% to 25% average. That number doesn’t look to change much for now. Early states particularly Florida and New Hampshire look even better and now in Iowa it looks like he has a solid base of at least 18%. The fluctuations of the other 7 candidates shows that a lot of conservatives are still undecided but the true tell will be where that 75% settles after we’re down to 3 or 4 candidates. Romney needs 26% to 30% of that 75% if we’re looking strictly at national polls by the time we’re down to 3 or 4 to be safe. In each state that number is even more manageable. In New Hampshire for example he only needs maybe 10% at the most from his base of support. Contrast that with the challenges ahead for the others which I believe are looking at numbers between 45% to 65% from their base of support. If it’s down to 3 or 4 in the early states I believe that Iowa will be Romneys and he’ll be between 35% to 45% with the rest split. 45% to 55% with everyone else split in NH and in SC 35% to 40% with everyone split. From there it’s a landslide.

  69. Dr J Says:

    52- I think you are understating your case a little bit there.

  70. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    69 – expound please.

  71. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    69 – If you’re being cynical then you’re view is that Romney is not a conservative and I believe that he’s not. You may be right though in my understatement that Rush may be a little misguided in his assessment of Reagan’s moving conservatism without compromise.

  72. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    71 – excuse me I believe that he is very conservative.

  73. Dr J Says:

    I loved Reagan. He would have these commercials on TV long before he announced for the 1980 campaign and I would say to myself, this guy should be the President! It was exciting.

    Reagan has an edge on communication, but Romney is pretty good. Romney’s intelligence and work ethic is greater, and I see him as more conservative than Reagan. If Romney makes it, Reagan’s administration will be a mere shadow of what is to come. Enjoy it while you can.

  74. wateredseeds Says:

    68,

    I think Romney’s base is more like 20%. As in, he will garner at least 20% of the vote in pretty much every state come time for the actual voting. I don’t think he gets lower than that anywhere. Even if the polls right now don’t say that. He really needs to capitalize on his lead in New Hampshire though. If he wins new hampshire and places top 3 in iowa…i think he waltzes through Florida and then wins the nomination easily. Now if he doesn’t get top 3 in Iowa…then it’s a little more difficult. But New Hampshire is a must win.

  75. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    I loved Reagan too. He is one of my heroes of conservatism. He was definitely the right man for the time. But to say he didn’t compromise is false. He would be considered establishment now according to Rush and a lot of other conservatives and they don’t even know it. We live in a very different time. The fight between conservatism and liberalism is even more intense. Capitalism vs Socialism is pointed and everyone has an opinion of how to advance each side. In this day and age, my view is that you have to be articulate, confidence in your positions, have a certain background that commands respect, and be persuasive to convince the non-believers that conservatism and capitalism works best. So far no one comes close to Romney.

  76. Sojourner Truth Says:

    Well, $hit. Look at this.

    Herman Cain within two in FL the moment that Perry’s numbers rapidly deflate.

    Rombots better hope that Perry and Bachmann can at least stay somewhat alive – because everytime the race looks winnows down to two major candidates, Romney falls behind.

  77. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    74 – I believe if Romney continues on this path where he does nothing more than staying on course and strategy, he will win each early state especially if the stage is set. An actual Rush listener is saying she will not vote for Romney in the general. Ha!!

  78. Sojourner Truth Says:

    Anybody think that Herman being treated so nicely during the “Who would you pick as your VP” question round gave some additional boost to his poll numbers?

    I think it’s simpler. People view Perry as an idiot who can’t talk. They still don’t trust Romney. Bachmann’s still fading. Romney has a finite ceiling by running to carry favor with the more moderate wing of the GOP.

    Cain is benefitting from all of this.

  79. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    76 – Cain’s numbers reflect voters who either don’t believe Romney is conservative enough or they just aren’t settled. We’ll see by the end of the month if Cain is the real deal. You can only hope it sticks otherwise with the track Romney’s on and no one else jumps in, he will be the nominee.

  80. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    I’m waiting to hear Rush address his listeners who won’t vote for Romney in a general if he is the nominee. He’ll either right that ship or he’ll push them not to. I’m betting he’ll do the former. This is fun.

  81. Sojourner Truth Says:

    I’d actually much prefer Cain to stay about five points back behind Romney in national polling.

    That way, in the debate, everyone is taking potshots at Romney.

    If Cain is to be the nominee (I still doubt it, but God only knows) – it’s in his best interests to see Romney take some real hits over the next couple of months.

  82. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    Tune in tomorrow…he (Rush) needs to figure this one out.

  83. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    81 – So in a Romney v Cain, you would prefer Cain?

  84. Sojourner Truth Says:

    80 – He’s not going to push hard at all unti the nomination is settled.

    Limbaugh’s listeners have plenty of legitimate gripes about Romney and his questionable devotion to conservatism. Limbaugh isn’t going to work against his audience.

    Should Romney get the nomination, Limbaugh will do what he always does. He’ll proclaim Romney to be the best of imperfect options and he’ll focus the heat on Obama and the Democrats.

    Limbaugh threaded the needle pretty well in 2008. He knew better than to draw a line in the sand and go all out in support for ne faction of the party. He’ll do no less in 2012.

  85. Sojourner Truth Says:

    81 – So in a Romney v Cain, you would prefer Cain?

    Absolutely. I’m not voting for Romney.

  86. Sojourner Truth Says:

    Daniel Henninger: Cain is a serious candidate

    You hear the same thing said about Herman Cain all the time: Herman Cain has some really interesting ideas, but . . .

    I love Herman Cain, but . . .

    But what?

    But he can’t win.

    Why not?

    At best, the answer has to do with that cloudy word “electability.” Or that Mr. Cain has never held elected political office.

    In 2004, Mr. Cain ran for the GOP’s U.S. Senate nomination in Georgia. He lost to Johnny Isakson. Last weekend, Mr. Cain ran away with the Florida straw poll vote, winning with 37%. He torched both the “Southern” candidate, Rick Perry of Texas, who worked hard to win the vote, and Mitt Romney, who in 2008 campaigned everywhere in Florida.

    The time is overdue to plumb the mystery of Herman Cain’s “interesting, but” candidacy. Let’s start at the top—in the top-tier candidacy of Mitt Romney.

    Though he’s got the governorship credential, Mr. Romney’s emphasis in this campaign is on his private-sector experience. It’s good, despite the knock on Bain Capital’s business model. But measured by résumés, Herman Cain’s looks deeper in terms of working on the private sector’s front lines.

    The details of his career path are worth knowing.

    In the late 1970s, Mr. Cain was recruited from Coca-Cola in Atlanta, his first job in business, to work for Pillsbury in Minneapolis. His rise was rapid and well-regarded. He joined the company’s restaurant and foods group in 1978 as director of business analysis. In the early 1980s, Pillsbury sent him to learn the hamburger business at a Burger King in Hopkins, Minn. Then they assigned him, at age 36, to revive Pillsbury’s stumbling, franchise Burger King business in the Philadelphia region. He succeeded. According to a 1987 account in the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Pillsbury’s then-president Win Wallin said: “He was an excellent bet. Herman always seemed to have his act together.”

    In 1986, Pillsbury sent the 41-year-old Mr. Cain to turn around their Godfather’s Pizza business, headquartered in Omaha. The Herman Cain who arrived there April 1 sounded like the same man who roused voters last Sunday in Florida: “I’m Herman Cain and this ain’t no April Fool’s joke. We are not dead. Our objective is to prove to Pillsbury and everyone else that we will survive.”

    Pillsbury sold Godfather’s to Mr. Cain and some of his managers in 1988. He ran it until 1996 and served as CEO of the National Restaurant Association from 1996-1999. This June, Mr. Cain visited with the Journal’s editors and put the issue of health-insurance availability inside the context of the restaurant industry. He said the restaurant association tried hard to devise a health-insurance program able to serve the needs of an industry whose work force is complex—executives and managers, full-time workers, part-timers, students and so forth. Any conceivable insurance system would require great flexibility in plan-choice and design.

    It’s from this period that one finds the famous 1994 video, now on YouTube, of Herman Cain on a TV screen from Omaha debating Bill Clinton about his national health legislation during a town-hall meeting. After the president estimates the profitability of Mr. Cain’s company, suggesting he can afford the legislation, Mr. Cain essentially dismantles the Clinton math, in detail. “The cost of your plan . . . will cause us to eliminate jobs.”

    None of this can be put across in the televised debates’ explain-everything-in-30 seconds format. Nor is there any chance to elaborate his Sept. 7 debate remark that he admires Chile’s private-public social security system. Or his flat-tax “9-9-9″ proposal. (Or any of the candidates’ policy ideas for that matter.) So voters get nothing, and Mr. Cain flounders.

    When Mr. Cain talked to the Journal’s editors, the most startling thing he said, and which he’s been repeating lately, was that he could win one-third of the black vote. Seeing Herman Cain make his case to black audiences would be interesting, period. Years ago, describing his chauffeur father’s influence on him in Atlanta, Mr. Cain said: “My father gave me a sense of pride. He was the best damn chauffeur. He knew it, and everybody else knew it.” Here’s guessing he’d get more of this vote than past GOP candidates.

    Does a résumé like Herman Cain’s add up to an American presidency? I used to think not. But after watching the American Idol system we’ve fallen into for discovering a president—with opinion polls, tongue slips and media caprice deciding front-runners and even presidents—I’m rewriting my presidential-selection software.

    Conventional wisdom holds that this week’s Chris Christie boomlet means the GOP is desperate for a savior. The reality is that, at some point, Republicans will have to start drilling deeper on their own into the candidates they’ve got.

    Put it this way: The GOP nominee is running against the incumbent president. Unlike the incumbent, Herman Cain has at least twice identified the causes of a large failing enterprise, designed goals, achieved them, and by all accounts inspired the people he was supposed to lead. Not least, Mr. Cain’s life experience suggests that, unlike the incumbent, he will adjust his ideas to reality.

    Herman Cain is a credible candidate. Whether he deserves to be president is something voters will decide. But he deserves a serious look.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204226204576599031274832242.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

  87. Tony Says:

    Romney has always been viable. No one else has always been viable.

  88. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    84 – Limbaugh has a lot of backtracking to do. He thought that he could get away with saying that we don’t need another John McCain. Who do you think he’s referring to here? Romney. Now he jumps on Christie as not conservative and is establishment although he pushed for Perry when Perry jumped in as if he didn’t know about Perry’s own problems with conservatism. He even asked his listeners to overlook illegal immigration. Rush is getting a pass on that. Rush hedges his claims of conservative purity by stating that any of these candidates including Romney is better than Obama and now you have people who say they won’t vote for Romney in the general. Do you believe that Rush wants that on his head if Obama gets another four years? NOOOO. He was involved in 2008. He did say Romney was conservative before the primary was done. He did not want McCain in there. After he (Rush) jumped in, nothing changed and McCain still got through. Rush’ ego had to have been hurt that he couldn’t right the ship. Now he’s overplaying his rhetoric. He’ll backtrack tomorrow and tell us that if Romney’s the nominee we need to vote for him. No doubt about that.

  89. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    86 – I’m all in for a Romney v Cain primary.

  90. CF Says:

    86

    Cain comes off pretty unpolished when he talks and fumbles a lot. I heard him interviewed on Hannity or Ingraham a few times and he answered only about half of the questions correctly. The other half sounded like he wasn’t sure what he was talking about.

    Cain simply comes off as unpresidential. Not in a bad way – it’s just that he is better suited for a nice talking head job at Fox News or perhaps even a cabinet position. He’s a great man, has some good (not great) ideas, but he’s not ready for the big time.

  91. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    86 – I’m a minority and I can tell you as a conservative that Cain doesn’t hurt the conservative movement. However, he does hurt the Republican party. The Republican party’s legitimacy will not be advanced among other minority groups if they choose Cain. Conservatism won’t lose in 2012, the Republican party will. Advancing a black man to battle another black man will continue the mantra that the Republican party is not sincere in reaching out to minorities particularly blacks. Black ideology while conservative socially is very much at odds economically and the Republican party to them and other minority groups is that it’s only white. That hasn’t changed, I see it everywhere, even at home 98% of liberal minorities look at Cain as a prop.

  92. CF Says:

    91

    I don’t really see it that way. I mean, I don’t disagree that Cain can’t beat Obama. I don’t think he can. I just think the big issue with Cain is his level of preparedness. Economy is #1 this time, but don’t bet for a second that people aren’t looking for someone who can communicate effectively with world leaders and build a coalition in Congress to pass Legislation.

    Real (Constitutional) change will real a leader who is proven to build bridges with people. They’ve got to be able to communicate that and have a track record of doing it. Cain is untested here.

  93. Sojourner Truth Says:

    92 – Wait a minute now. Wasn’t the Rombot partly line (up until Perry started to implode) that the economy is paramount? Didn’t the Rombots all say that we should get behind Romney because he was the only one who could credibly offer economic expertise?

    Well Cain’s at least as good as Romney on that score.

  94. CF Says:

    93

    And he may well be as good as Romney on the Economy. On everything else, Romney wins by a longshot.

  95. Tony Says:

    52.

    Conservative Gladiator
    Reagan was able to articulate and persuade. He used his mandate effectively from a terrible time in America with a very liberal president. Romney can do the same but in a more strategic and intellectual way that will resonate with the non-believers. With Romney conservativism has the chance to be advanced like never before.

    Presently, Ronald Reagan is the opiate of conservatives. Romney will win the Presidency, and soon thereafter, the vast majority of the country will see the value of constitutional and conservative principles.

  96. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Cain’s an interesting guy and would probably make a better President and even maybe a better nominee than Perry or Bachmann. But no way he wins 1/3 of the black vote against Obama. If the economy stays bad, and he spends a lot of time focusing on black unemployment, he MAY get to 20-25%- a Republican hasn’t won more than 25% of the black vote, in a contested race, since like 1972. Rockefeller and Scranton and Romney and John Lindsay and super-liberal Republicans did it in the 60s. Nixon did it in 60′, 68′, and maybe in 72′ (not sure if “law and order” had totally eroded Republican support with blacks already). Since then, even Michael Steele, against white-bread Ben Cardin, can’t get much above 25%.

  97. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    Like Romney, I have no doubts about Cain as a conservative. I can tell you politics is an ugly thing particularly when it comes to race. If you wanna take your chances with Cain going into the general elections that’s your preference. It’s a win for Cain only because when he loses, the Republican party will have to start all over again.

  98. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    96 – Cain follows the mold of Clarence Thomas if he becomes the nominee. They’ll be sharing the same island.

  99. aspire Says:

    I like Cain, but I doubt he can win Iowa. Besides, I have a feeling that if he won he’d have a, “what do I do now” moment.

  100. aspire Says:

    There’s no way Perry can win without Florida, and it seems like he completely blew it in Florida. I wonder if anyone else can win Iowa then go on to win the nomination.

  101. Teemu Says:

    “4. Perry’s Hispanic pandering bought him NOTHING. He’s doing worse with Hispanics than he is with whites. And you know his support among whites took a huge hit.”
    These are from 2003 but then of the Florida Hispanics only less than 8% were Mexican, and almost 70% were either Puerto Rican or Cuban, and since Puerto Rico is USA terriotory, and if I’ve understood correctly it is impossible to be illegal Cuban immigrant either, benefits for illegals doesn’t have positive effect among them I think.
    http://pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/9.pdf

    “5. Bachmann seems to be the only one doing well with Hispanics…that I don’t get.”
    Herman Cain got 22% to Bachmann’s 18%.

  102. Xpatriated Texan » If he’s in, he wins Says:

    [...] Which one is on top? Let’s look at the primary calendar. There are three contests in January: Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida (which is in violation of primary rules, but who cares?). Currently, Perry leads in Nevada by 5 and in South Carolina by 12. He gets both of those. But Perry gets walloped by Romney in Florida. [...]

  103. Chris Christie could be President…or better | Thurmans Poli Sci Space Says:

    [...] Which one is on top? Let’s look at the primary calendar. There are three contests in January: Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida (which is in violation of primary rules, but who cares?). Currently, Perry leads in Nevada by 5 and in South Carolina by 12. He gets both of those. But Perry gets walloped by Romney in Florida. [...]

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