SurveyUSA 2012 Florida GOP Primary Poll
If the Florida Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich? Michele Bachmann? Ron Paul? Rick Perry? Herman Cain? Rick Santorum? Jon Huntsman? Or one of the other Republican candidates?
- Mitt Romney 27%
- Herman Cain 25%
- Rick Perry 13%
- Newt Gingrich 6%
- Ron Paul 5%
- Michele Bachmann 5%
- Jon Huntsman 3%
- Rick Santorum 2%
- Other/undecided 16%
500 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:18 am
1. Wow, look at Cain and Perry.
2. This is Survey USA, they don’t publish junk. We’ll have to see this confirmed somewhere, but they’re a solid polling company if anyone is.
3. Looks like Mitt’s pandering on Social Security is paying off bigtime. His lead is built on senior support.
4. Perry’s Hispanic pandering bought him NOTHING. He’s doing worse with Hispanics than he is with whites. And you know his support among whites took a huge hit.
5. Bachmann seems to be the only one doing well with Hispanics…that I don’t get.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:20 am
SurveyUSA is one of the best state polling outfits there is. The movement in Florida is real folks…
September 29th, 2011 at 11:22 am
Whoa.
The real story here is Huntsman up to 3%!!!!!!!!
Cain replacing Perry as the Anti-Mitt gets the byline…
September 29th, 2011 at 11:22 am
Craig for Perry better start shopping again. I think his Perry ride has been shorter than his Bachmann ride.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:23 am
Wow, Go Romney, Go Cain!
More spreading of the loose bowel syndrome within Team Perry…
September 29th, 2011 at 11:23 am
Cue Craig spamming stale polls and irrelevent cross tabs in 5…..4…..3…..2….
September 29th, 2011 at 11:24 am
#4…Matt, should we start betting Betting Baghdad Craig gets on the Cain train next?
September 29th, 2011 at 11:25 am
So I figure once Cain drops out inexplicably, his support all goes to Huntsman.
That makes the reeeeeeal race:
Huntsman 28%
Romney 27%
September 29th, 2011 at 11:26 am
Let’s take bets on Craig’s new name.
Cain/???
September 29th, 2011 at 11:26 am
Perry is dead in the water in Florida. Most voters have moved on from Perry in Florida. He is no longer a viable alternative for them.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:26 am
If Cain becomes the strongest candidate after Mitt, I wonder if we could be looking at a Romney/Cain ticket?
September 29th, 2011 at 11:28 am
Jerald,
He will definitely be cursing the Cain campaign next.
Can you believe he told Smacks that Smacks is a jinx for campaigns, with absolutely no sense of irony?
Romney’s had a pretty good couple weeks since Smacks came back. Craig is on his third campaign, soon to be fourth. He always gets ‘em about 2 weeks before they peak.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:29 am
Craigfer, I hereby appeal to you to change your moniker to Romney/Huntsman!
September 29th, 2011 at 11:30 am
MWS……Sorry man, but I just don’t see a Romney/Huntsman ticket.
A ticket of two rich, white Mormons might be just too much for the MSM and conspirational far right religious extremists to take
September 29th, 2011 at 11:32 am
#13…LOL
MarqueQ…..Enough of that reverse psycology stuff!
September 29th, 2011 at 11:33 am
What a collapse by Gov. Perry! That debate performance was epic in every sense of the word. The unofficial end of his campaign.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:33 am
Florida RCP average: Romney +4.6
I don’t see Perry’s name on Florida. lol
September 29th, 2011 at 11:34 am
Matt.“Craig for Perry better start shopping again. I think his Perry ride has been shorter than his Bachmann ride.”
Given his history, you had better pray that he doesn’t pick Huntsman.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:35 am
Perry can’t win in Florida, so he can’t win the nomination. He’ll spend his time trying to tear down Romney for the next few months, but it will only make Romney stronger. Perry’s campaign team is a reactionary one, not really having a strategy or any specifics. They expected to just appear on the national stage and overwhelm the GOP, and now they don’t know what to do other than act out angrily, and they are getting hurt by it.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:35 am
Of course, Perry’s dismal debate hurt him.
But what I think hurt him even more was people got a look at the tip of the iceberg that is Perry’s record and positions.
Like one former Perry backer wrote, “Yikes!”
September 29th, 2011 at 11:36 am
9. Take bets on his new name and the length of time it remains as such.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:37 am
Maybe Baghdad Craig has returned to sitting on the beach contemplating the waves…
September 29th, 2011 at 11:37 am
20,
I believe that was Kristol! And he summed it up perfectly.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:37 am
Man – Craig for FOTM is gonna have a hard time now……does he go back to Bachmann in seat #2 with a Cain/Bachmann moniker? or a Cain/Perry?
Maybe we can get Craig’s name change options up on Intrade.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:38 am
Where’s Craig?
September 29th, 2011 at 11:38 am
21,
Cain or Santorum/whoever
September 29th, 2011 at 11:39 am
Are Perry’s top campaign people the ones who were previously with Gingrich? After seeing their performance, maybe he said “don’t let the door hit you on the way out”.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:39 am
Intrade
Probability of Baghdad Craig not showing his face around Race 4 ’12 for the next day or two
Up to 50%
September 29th, 2011 at 11:41 am
27, good point. Gingrich must be loving this poetic justice.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:41 am
Blogging for Dummies–How Not to Make Friends and Influence People
By Baghdad Craig
September 29th, 2011 at 11:42 am
#21,
“Take bets on his new name and the length of time it remains as such.”
As long as his name doesn’t start with Romney!! Also, maybe he can do us all a favor and change his name to Obama/Biden for the general election, that would be the final nail in Obama’s re-election coffin
September 29th, 2011 at 11:43 am
The Romney supporters who voted for Cain in the Straw Poll to humiliate Perry might have overdone it. Still, my bet is that Cain is a Florida phenomenon more than a national one. It would be difficult for Herman to become the anti-Romney because he and Mitt really like each other, and both have too much integrity to go negative on each other.
I like Cain a lot, and I especially like his 9/9/9 plan….but that plan, while being a brilliant potential boon to the economy, renders him unelectable in the General. Right now, there is NO national sales tax. How enthusiastic do you suppose the folks are going to be about adding a 9% sales tax to everything they buy??
Right now, half the citizens of this country don’t pay any income tax. How excited are they going to be to suddenly pay 9% on every dollar they make to the government??
Romney’s plan cuts taxes where it will benefit the economy the most, while maximizing his ability to defeat Obama.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:44 am
He hides for a few days whenever news is so bad he can’t possibly spin it.
After Perry’s collapse last week, he was pretty much gone all weekend until that CNN poll came out saying Perry was still on top. Then he was an insufferable jerk for a few days reposting those old polls. Now he’s probably off licking his wounds again.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:46 am
32:
Personally, I hate any form of sales tax for the federal government.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:48 am
I believe Craig’s argument after the FOX national poll came out was that it was an outlier. I would be curious to hear his response now. It might be hard for him to comprehend how bad Gov. Perry’s debate peformance was, but it was THAT bad.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:51 am
Dave,
The WSJ liked Huntsman’s tax plan best.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:51 am
I just don’t think Cain will be able to raise money. Outside of the “yeah, right” reaction most voters will give him when push comes to shove, I don’t think he can make it past Iowa. He won’t win at all until, maaaaaaybe South Carolina, but that’s three contests lost in a row.
Ultimately, I think his poll numbers come back to Earth, money dries up, and he endorses Romney by Christmas.
Just a hunch. But I like him very much, and unlike Perry, I don’t have an issue with him rising. He is rising not because of cultural cues, but because he is an articulate messenger of conservative principles in an exciting, good-humored package.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:52 am
Perry’s best bet at this point is to forget Romney and start talking about Jesus in Iowa, basically run the Huckabee campaign.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:53 am
I will also bet that once Craig starts pushing Cain (sorry, Herman, it’s coming), he will forget everything he said about 10 1/2 year governors and extol the lack of government experience as a virtue.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:55 am
Perry has nobody to blame but himself…
September 29th, 2011 at 11:55 am
I am firmly opposed to a national sales tax. We have too many national taxes. Bad idea to add one more.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:55 am
Matt ” MWS”
Yep..Craig thinks I’m a jink.
I supported the following in the GOP nomination…
1988 – Kemp (still proud of that)loss
1996 – Nobody(Still proud of that)
2000 – W. Bush (Stillproud of that)won
2008 – McCain (Still proud of that)won
2012 – TPAW (Still proud of that)loss
- 2nd pick Romney – won
Not a dope or a nut job in the bunch.
Romney beat my ass this time..I’m smart enough to have figured this out.
Romney has beaten Craig’s ass, but he can’t handle the truth..so he reaches out to nutjobs like Bachmann..until her numbers sink of course.
Romney/Rubio 2012
The start of the next Great American Comeback!!
September 29th, 2011 at 11:56 am
The GOP electorate got to know Perry and didn’t like him. I wonder what will happen when they get to know Cain ???
To all you Rombots out there – Gingrich is the one you should really be afraid of…..
September 29th, 2011 at 11:57 am
Smack…..you impress me.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:58 am
Smacks,
I’m not sure who is worse, Bachmann or Perry. I guess it depends if one is willing to accept a ton of corruption to get a small modicum of competency.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:00 pm
Craigfer, don’t listen to MWS in 39. Mitt’s your man! He’s got the cleared, leveled, and gemstone-paved path to the nomination. And Cain really isn’t your type, lacking in government and campaign experience and such.
Reporting from a remote location, the Brain Trust recommends:
Romney/Bachmann
Romney/Huntsman
Romney/Romney (’cause he’s the only one who matches his own awesomeness)
September 29th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
Marque,
Don’t get me wrong. I HOPE Craig jumps on the Romney bandwagon. It may be Huntsman’s only hope!
September 29th, 2011 at 12:10 pm
Apparently, Ricky P does know how to read. After a week or so of intense soul searching, he decided he’s sorry about calling conservatives heartless.
http://thehill.com/video/campaign/184433-perry-apologies-for-heartless-immigration-comment-pushes-border-bona-fides
September 29th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
Perry’s getting desperate, and pulling out the big guns to try to change the subject.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:19 pm
49:
Y’know, I’m not much of a gun guy. Never even held a gun that was loaded. But I admit I’m a sucker for when politicians start shooting things.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
Matt,
I have to confess that I like Huntsman’s plan even better than I like Mitt’s or Herman’s. Not that it matters, because I think this will be Mitt’s year to triumph, and I think Mitt’s support in New Hampshire is so solid that Jon will come up short.
Huntsman’s only hope is that the Anybody But Mitt crowd settles on him as their final White Knight. That could happen, for wont of alternatives…..but I’m a lot less impressed with their clout than Max is.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:35 pm
I love it. I’m hearing Rush talk about Reagan. Too bad he doesn’t see the parallels between Romney and Reagan especially how Romney is not loved as a conservative among the kingmaker establishment. Rush claims conservatism in the mold of Reagan but pushes for people like Palin and Perry who couldn’t hold a candle to Reagan in depth. He overlooks Reagan’s own moderate and even blatant liberal governance in California. He talks about Reagan’s ability to reach out to Dems as a conservative yet overlooks how much he compromised as president with the Dems to get things done. There are policies that Reagan pushed through that were liberal and we need to see it for what it was and from Reagan’s perspective it was compassionate, i.e., federal mandatory emergency care and amnesty for illegals. Rush is definitely a little misguided in his perception of Reagan. Rush believes that Reagan was a blowhard and that was how he pushed the conservative movement. Reagan was able to articulate and persuade. He used his mandate effectively from a terrible time in America with a very liberal president. Romney can do the same but in a more strategic and intellectual way that will resonate with the non-believers. With Romney conservativism has the chance to be advanced like never before.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:37 pm
51. “Huntsman’s only hope is that the Anybody But Mitt crowd settles on him…”
Impossible. The anybody but Mitt crowd have three things they hate about Mitt–1 spoken, 2 unspoken. 1) They call him a liberal–Huntsman’s record is moderate in a red state. He doesn’t fill that void. 2) Mitt’s Mormon & many of the haters hate him for this even though they revert to 1 as their criticism–Huntsman, again, can’t fill the anti-Mormon void. 3) Unbuyable–As much as I don’t love Huntsman, I think he is also unbuyable. The cronies won’t like Huntsman either.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:38 pm
Congrats to Obama-Lite but thank God it’s ONLY temporary.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
54. “Congrats to Obama-Lite but thank God it’s ONLY temporary.”
As opposed to when Perry was permanently in the lead…
September 29th, 2011 at 12:41 pm
•Jon Huntsman 3%
ROTFLMAO!!
September 29th, 2011 at 12:43 pm
Craig will be gone from this site for a while now.
Let’s all breathe a collective sigh of relief… aaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh……..
September 29th, 2011 at 12:43 pm
56
Never mind, I take 57 back.
Ugh…
September 29th, 2011 at 12:45 pm
54. Craig was just showing us the beginning of Romney’s upcoming streak – he’s at 3. Perry made it to 17.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:46 pm
Unlike Perry, I at least respect Herman Cain, but I don’t think he’s a sustainable frontrunner should he move into the lead. At that point, the scrutiny will be on him, and his views on Muslims will be questioned, his lack of a foreign policy will come up, etc. Cain seems almost woefully inadequate at discussing any topic that deviates from business and economics. He generally resorts to applause lines like “Repeal ObamaCare!” That only gets you so far.
But the nice thing about a Cain boomlet is that he will at least be evaluated by primary voters on the merits. Unlike Perry, he doesn’t have the cultural cues to deflect attention from his substance. Perry was trying very hard to make his campaign about the sense of validation that Southerners and evangelicals would feel at having one of their own back in the White House. Cain can’t play that game, and that’s a good thing, because then the race becomes about the issues.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:49 pm
The great thing about having all these candidates jump in is that in the end should Romney come out on top, which I believe he will. This conservative trial by fire benefits him the most. Everyone will have to agree that Romney is conservative in the end as he enters the ring against Obama.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
Rush claiming Rubio was Tea Party is false. Rubio was a conservative, articulate, and persuasive. Rush talks about Rubio’s supporters claiming it was Jim DeMint. Romney was there in the beginning for him too. Let’s not forget.
September 29th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
Anybody think that Herman being treated so nicely during the “Who would you pick as your VP” question round gave some additional boost to his poll numbers?
September 29th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
The strange part about that poll is the Cell Phone data. I’m guessing cell phone = younger voter who might be more open to a Cain? I don’t follow the polls enough to know if other outfits also use Cell Phone data, but the landline numbers are very impressive for Romney.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Man….looks like Paul’s support is drying up too. That makes me sad. He was beginning to poll pretty decent…now not so much. Pretty soon i’ll be making my way to the romney camp. I don’t love the guy…but he can bring us back as a country. He’s positionally pro-life, and he can beat obama. We could be looking at a 49 state wipeout like Reagan if it’s the right ticket. Romney/Rubio.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
64, I think that would tend to be the case.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Florida internals for Vs. Obama are brutal for Gingrich, Bachmann, and now PERRY.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:20 pm
Romney’s base strength nationally is at or around 20% to 25% average. That number doesn’t look to change much for now. Early states particularly Florida and New Hampshire look even better and now in Iowa it looks like he has a solid base of at least 18%. The fluctuations of the other 7 candidates shows that a lot of conservatives are still undecided but the true tell will be where that 75% settles after we’re down to 3 or 4 candidates. Romney needs 26% to 30% of that 75% if we’re looking strictly at national polls by the time we’re down to 3 or 4 to be safe. In each state that number is even more manageable. In New Hampshire for example he only needs maybe 10% at the most from his base of support. Contrast that with the challenges ahead for the others which I believe are looking at numbers between 45% to 65% from their base of support. If it’s down to 3 or 4 in the early states I believe that Iowa will be Romneys and he’ll be between 35% to 45% with the rest split. 45% to 55% with everyone else split in NH and in SC 35% to 40% with everyone split. From there it’s a landslide.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:22 pm
52- I think you are understating your case a little bit there.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:26 pm
69 – expound please.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:29 pm
69 – If you’re being cynical then you’re view is that Romney is not a conservative and I believe that he’s not. You may be right though in my understatement that Rush may be a little misguided in his assessment of Reagan’s moving conservatism without compromise.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
71 – excuse me I believe that he is very conservative.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:35 pm
I loved Reagan. He would have these commercials on TV long before he announced for the 1980 campaign and I would say to myself, this guy should be the President! It was exciting.
Reagan has an edge on communication, but Romney is pretty good. Romney’s intelligence and work ethic is greater, and I see him as more conservative than Reagan. If Romney makes it, Reagan’s administration will be a mere shadow of what is to come. Enjoy it while you can.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:42 pm
68,
I think Romney’s base is more like 20%. As in, he will garner at least 20% of the vote in pretty much every state come time for the actual voting. I don’t think he gets lower than that anywhere. Even if the polls right now don’t say that. He really needs to capitalize on his lead in New Hampshire though. If he wins new hampshire and places top 3 in iowa…i think he waltzes through Florida and then wins the nomination easily. Now if he doesn’t get top 3 in Iowa…then it’s a little more difficult. But New Hampshire is a must win.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
I loved Reagan too. He is one of my heroes of conservatism. He was definitely the right man for the time. But to say he didn’t compromise is false. He would be considered establishment now according to Rush and a lot of other conservatives and they don’t even know it. We live in a very different time. The fight between conservatism and liberalism is even more intense. Capitalism vs Socialism is pointed and everyone has an opinion of how to advance each side. In this day and age, my view is that you have to be articulate, confidence in your positions, have a certain background that commands respect, and be persuasive to convince the non-believers that conservatism and capitalism works best. So far no one comes close to Romney.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:53 pm
Well, $hit. Look at this.
Herman Cain within two in FL the moment that Perry’s numbers rapidly deflate.
Rombots better hope that Perry and Bachmann can at least stay somewhat alive – because everytime the race looks winnows down to two major candidates, Romney falls behind.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:55 pm
74 – I believe if Romney continues on this path where he does nothing more than staying on course and strategy, he will win each early state especially if the stage is set. An actual Rush listener is saying she will not vote for Romney in the general. Ha!!
September 29th, 2011 at 1:55 pm
I think it’s simpler. People view Perry as an idiot who can’t talk. They still don’t trust Romney. Bachmann’s still fading. Romney has a finite ceiling by running to carry favor with the more moderate wing of the GOP.
Cain is benefitting from all of this.
September 29th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
76 – Cain’s numbers reflect voters who either don’t believe Romney is conservative enough or they just aren’t settled. We’ll see by the end of the month if Cain is the real deal. You can only hope it sticks otherwise with the track Romney’s on and no one else jumps in, he will be the nominee.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
I’m waiting to hear Rush address his listeners who won’t vote for Romney in a general if he is the nominee. He’ll either right that ship or he’ll push them not to. I’m betting he’ll do the former. This is fun.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
I’d actually much prefer Cain to stay about five points back behind Romney in national polling.
That way, in the debate, everyone is taking potshots at Romney.
If Cain is to be the nominee (I still doubt it, but God only knows) – it’s in his best interests to see Romney take some real hits over the next couple of months.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
Tune in tomorrow…he (Rush) needs to figure this one out.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
81 – So in a Romney v Cain, you would prefer Cain?
September 29th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
80 – He’s not going to push hard at all unti the nomination is settled.
Limbaugh’s listeners have plenty of legitimate gripes about Romney and his questionable devotion to conservatism. Limbaugh isn’t going to work against his audience.
Should Romney get the nomination, Limbaugh will do what he always does. He’ll proclaim Romney to be the best of imperfect options and he’ll focus the heat on Obama and the Democrats.
Limbaugh threaded the needle pretty well in 2008. He knew better than to draw a line in the sand and go all out in support for ne faction of the party. He’ll do no less in 2012.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:05 pm
Absolutely. I’m not voting for Romney.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Daniel Henninger: Cain is a serious candidate
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204226204576599031274832242.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
September 29th, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Romney has always been viable. No one else has always been viable.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
84 – Limbaugh has a lot of backtracking to do. He thought that he could get away with saying that we don’t need another John McCain. Who do you think he’s referring to here? Romney. Now he jumps on Christie as not conservative and is establishment although he pushed for Perry when Perry jumped in as if he didn’t know about Perry’s own problems with conservatism. He even asked his listeners to overlook illegal immigration. Rush is getting a pass on that. Rush hedges his claims of conservative purity by stating that any of these candidates including Romney is better than Obama and now you have people who say they won’t vote for Romney in the general. Do you believe that Rush wants that on his head if Obama gets another four years? NOOOO. He was involved in 2008. He did say Romney was conservative before the primary was done. He did not want McCain in there. After he (Rush) jumped in, nothing changed and McCain still got through. Rush’ ego had to have been hurt that he couldn’t right the ship. Now he’s overplaying his rhetoric. He’ll backtrack tomorrow and tell us that if Romney’s the nominee we need to vote for him. No doubt about that.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
86 – I’m all in for a Romney v Cain primary.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
86
Cain comes off pretty unpolished when he talks and fumbles a lot. I heard him interviewed on Hannity or Ingraham a few times and he answered only about half of the questions correctly. The other half sounded like he wasn’t sure what he was talking about.
Cain simply comes off as unpresidential. Not in a bad way – it’s just that he is better suited for a nice talking head job at Fox News or perhaps even a cabinet position. He’s a great man, has some good (not great) ideas, but he’s not ready for the big time.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:32 pm
86 – I’m a minority and I can tell you as a conservative that Cain doesn’t hurt the conservative movement. However, he does hurt the Republican party. The Republican party’s legitimacy will not be advanced among other minority groups if they choose Cain. Conservatism won’t lose in 2012, the Republican party will. Advancing a black man to battle another black man will continue the mantra that the Republican party is not sincere in reaching out to minorities particularly blacks. Black ideology while conservative socially is very much at odds economically and the Republican party to them and other minority groups is that it’s only white. That hasn’t changed, I see it everywhere, even at home 98% of liberal minorities look at Cain as a prop.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
91
I don’t really see it that way. I mean, I don’t disagree that Cain can’t beat Obama. I don’t think he can. I just think the big issue with Cain is his level of preparedness. Economy is #1 this time, but don’t bet for a second that people aren’t looking for someone who can communicate effectively with world leaders and build a coalition in Congress to pass Legislation.
Real (Constitutional) change will real a leader who is proven to build bridges with people. They’ve got to be able to communicate that and have a track record of doing it. Cain is untested here.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
92 – Wait a minute now. Wasn’t the Rombot partly line (up until Perry started to implode) that the economy is paramount? Didn’t the Rombots all say that we should get behind Romney because he was the only one who could credibly offer economic expertise?
Well Cain’s at least as good as Romney on that score.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
93
And he may well be as good as Romney on the Economy. On everything else, Romney wins by a longshot.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:58 pm
52.
Presently, Ronald Reagan is the opiate of conservatives. Romney will win the Presidency, and soon thereafter, the vast majority of the country will see the value of constitutional and conservative principles.
September 29th, 2011 at 3:16 pm
Cain’s an interesting guy and would probably make a better President and even maybe a better nominee than Perry or Bachmann. But no way he wins 1/3 of the black vote against Obama. If the economy stays bad, and he spends a lot of time focusing on black unemployment, he MAY get to 20-25%- a Republican hasn’t won more than 25% of the black vote, in a contested race, since like 1972. Rockefeller and Scranton and Romney and John Lindsay and super-liberal Republicans did it in the 60s. Nixon did it in 60′, 68′, and maybe in 72′ (not sure if “law and order” had totally eroded Republican support with blacks already). Since then, even Michael Steele, against white-bread Ben Cardin, can’t get much above 25%.
September 29th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Like Romney, I have no doubts about Cain as a conservative. I can tell you politics is an ugly thing particularly when it comes to race. If you wanna take your chances with Cain going into the general elections that’s your preference. It’s a win for Cain only because when he loses, the Republican party will have to start all over again.
September 29th, 2011 at 3:57 pm
96 – Cain follows the mold of Clarence Thomas if he becomes the nominee. They’ll be sharing the same island.
September 29th, 2011 at 8:14 pm
I like Cain, but I doubt he can win Iowa. Besides, I have a feeling that if he won he’d have a, “what do I do now” moment.
September 29th, 2011 at 8:20 pm
There’s no way Perry can win without Florida, and it seems like he completely blew it in Florida. I wonder if anyone else can win Iowa then go on to win the nomination.
October 2nd, 2011 at 6:59 am
“4. Perry’s Hispanic pandering bought him NOTHING. He’s doing worse with Hispanics than he is with whites. And you know his support among whites took a huge hit.”
These are from 2003 but then of the Florida Hispanics only less than 8% were Mexican, and almost 70% were either Puerto Rican or Cuban, and since Puerto Rico is USA terriotory, and if I’ve understood correctly it is impossible to be illegal Cuban immigrant either, benefits for illegals doesn’t have positive effect among them I think.
http://pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/9.pdf
“5. Bachmann seems to be the only one doing well with Hispanics…that I don’t get.”
Herman Cain got 22% to Bachmann’s 18%.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:19 pm
[...] Which one is on top? Let’s look at the primary calendar. There are three contests in January: Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida (which is in violation of primary rules, but who cares?). Currently, Perry leads in Nevada by 5 and in South Carolina by 12. He gets both of those. But Perry gets walloped by Romney in Florida. [...]
October 4th, 2011 at 8:25 am
[...] Which one is on top? Let’s look at the primary calendar. There are three contests in January: Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida (which is in violation of primary rules, but who cares?). Currently, Perry leads in Nevada by 5 and in South Carolina by 12. He gets both of those. But Perry gets walloped by Romney in Florida. [...]