September 29, 2011

Intrade State of the Race: Every Cowboy Sings a Sad, Sad Song Edition

We are one week removed from what will potentially go down as the worst debate performance in modern presidential history, and the Intrade investors reacted accordingly:

Name Value Change
Romney 47.5 +9.0
Perry 25.2 -10.8
Christie 5.9 +1.8
Cain 5.0 +4.8
Palin 4.0 -4.0
Huntsman 3.7 -0.8
Paul 2.2 -0.8
Bachmann 1.9 +0.4
Gingrich 1.4 +0.2
Johnson 0.5 -0.3
Santorum 0.5 +0.2
Roemer 0.1 E
McCotter
Pawlenty

Only candidates who have announced an official candidacy or who have greater than a 3% chance at the nomination are included.

As more polls are released showing Mitt Romney retaking the lead from Rick Perry, I would expect the gap between the two to widen further. A note of caution for Romney fans, however: Rick Perry is not going to just disappear from this race. He still remains strong in the south, his key and natural constituency, and he is for all intents and purposes the only candidate who can to raise enough money to compete with Romney. The question is what he can do to regain the immense amount of momentum he lost from his three debate debacles and two straw poll losses. (Perhaps an announcement of endorsements from Giuliani and Palin would provide the necessary spark…)

The investors are hedging their bets on Sarah Palin after her “Would a title be too shackle-ly?” shtick, but at the same time they are hanging on to Chris Christie for dear life – despite a dozen vehement refusals to get in the race from his spokesman, from his brother, and from Christie himself. Eventually folks will work through their denial and move toward acceptance. Heh.

The person I’d watch right now? Actually, it would be Jon Huntsman. He’s into double digits in New Hampshire while playing a McCain 2008 strategy; meanwhile, he is up to 4% in the most recent national poll as well. If he surprises with a strong second place showing in New Hampshire, he may be able to parlay that into a strong showing in South Carolina as well, given his endorsements from some key figures in the state.

by @ 9:32 am. Filed under 2012 Misc., Chris Christie, Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Sarah Palin
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19 Responses to “Intrade State of the Race: Every Cowboy Sings a Sad, Sad Song Edition”

  1. Jeff Says:

    And that’s after Perry recovered a couple points. He was lower.

  2. Matthew Kilburn Says:

    Endorsement by Giuliani might only hurt Perry more on the immigration issue.

    “Under Rick Perry, more than 40% of new jobs went to illegal immigrants, combined with special tuition breaks for illegals, and now an endorsement by the man who defended the practice of providing sanctuary cities for those illegal in the united states”

  3. Perry/Jeb for 2012! Says:

    This is HUGE for Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to call
    the Texas In-State Tuition Law similar to Florida’s Fair Policy.

    It looks like tacit endorsements of Gov Perry at this point with more to follow. :)

    From the from National Journal report on Jeb Bush’s email to fellow Republican:

    “With Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry under attack for supporting tuition breaks for children of illegal immigrants, former Gov. Jeb Bush on Tuesday offered some solidarity by calling a similar proposal in Florida “fair policy

    I think that is a fair policy,” Bush said in an e-mail to National Journal on Tuesday, adding that the students who benefit from the tuition breaks find themselves in the United States through “no fault of their own.”

    “About one dozen states offer some form of tuition assistance to the children of illegal immigrants. Rubio, the son of Cuban exiles, was the co-sponsor of such a bill in 2003 and 2004, before he became speaker of the Florida state House. Bush, whose wife was born and raised in Mexico and who speaks fluent Spanish, also championed the legislation.”

  4. Matthew Kilburn Says:

    Hopefully we’ll see South Carolina’s big 2 hand out their endorsements soon.

  5. Matthew Kilburn Says:

    Pathetic, when we have people in the GOP handing out freebies to people who have no business here.

    If you start providing those children here with cheap education, you’re only going to lure in more illegals.

    First, stop all new illegals from coming…then we can decide what to do with those already here.

    But if its not such a travesty to pull children in Mexico away from everything they are familiar with so their parents can come here and pick fruit, I see no reason why it should be considered a travesty to send them back where they came from.

  6. Try Not To Laugh At My 1.9 GPA perry Says:

    Every cronyism ethically challenge flip flopper has its thorns.

  7. Ben (One of those MittWits) Says:

    Not sure that could be put to music or not TNTL – but the message is clear. ;)

  8. TEX Says:

    Jeb Bush is after all and first of all a Bush,Bushie.
    For most part anti conservative “compassionate conservative”
    which equals to a card carrying RINO.

    Bushies did much more damage to conservative movement and the country (“What conservative movement?There is no conservative movement”-George W Bush) than Barak Obama.

    We always knew who Obama is,Bushies inflicted huge damages from within.

  9. Try Not To Laugh At My 1.9 GPA perry Says:

    7:

    Hey, if someone can come up with a song called pants on the ground I’m sure it could be done.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMwhl4IrPNc

  10. SteveT Says:

    New Survey USA Poll – Florida

    Two Man Race -

    Romney 27
    Cain 25

    Perry 13 (wow?)

    Link: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ab381464-4b12-4dec-ab94-0e9516575817

    It looks like Perry is falling faster than anyone predicted!

  11. Metro Says:

    NY Post exclusive: Christie reconsidering as a result of being lobbied by George HW Bush, Henry Kissinger and Nancy Reagan:
    http://www.nypost.com/

  12. GNV Says:

    Plus Huntsman has that highly-coveted celebrity endorsement from Michael Moore.

  13. Conservative Dude Says:

    Don’t show to that Craig guy, he’ll go bald by the end of the week.

  14. Thomas Alan Says:

    NY Post exclusive: Christie reconsidering as a result of being lobbied by George HW Bush, Henry Kissinger and Nancy Reagan:

    Heh, be funny if three people between the ages of 87-90 got him in the race.

  15. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Huntsman went down, even though he’s gained traction nationally and he’s broken 10% in NH?

  16. Reginald from Texas Says:

    With all due respect, a 390-pound man is not going to win the election. As much policy and positions matter, Americans want somebody who looks presidential. He is the one potential candidate that does not look presidential. He is obese, to put it bluntly.

  17. Matt "MWS" Says:

    MassCon

    #15. I know, it makes about as much sense as Christie going up, after saying for the bazillionth time he isn’t running.

    But the Christie Clingers hold out hope. Unfortunately, all this stupid melodrama detracts from the actual campaign.

  18. Teemu Says:

    Actually Huntsman’s stocks going down makes sense in a way since too weak Perry could enable Romney to win Iowa and momentum from that would hurt Huntsman’s chances in New Hampshire. In some Iowa poll Romney lead the pack recently.

  19. us coin sets Says:

    us coin sets…

    2011 September | Race 4 2012…

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