We are one week removed from what will potentially go down as the worst debate performance in modern presidential history, and the Intrade investors reacted accordingly:
| Name | Value | Change |
| Romney | 47.5 | +9.0 |
| Perry | 25.2 | -10.8 |
| Christie | 5.9 | +1.8 |
| Cain | 5.0 | +4.8 |
| Palin | 4.0 | -4.0 |
| Huntsman | 3.7 | -0.8 |
| Paul | 2.2 | -0.8 |
| Bachmann | 1.9 | +0.4 |
| Gingrich | 1.4 | +0.2 |
| Johnson | 0.5 | -0.3 |
| Santorum | 0.5 | +0.2 |
| Roemer | 0.1 | E |
| McCotter | — | — |
| Pawlenty | — | — |
Only candidates who have announced an official candidacy or who have greater than a 3% chance at the nomination are included.
As more polls are released showing Mitt Romney retaking the lead from Rick Perry, I would expect the gap between the two to widen further. A note of caution for Romney fans, however: Rick Perry is not going to just disappear from this race. He still remains strong in the south, his key and natural constituency, and he is for all intents and purposes the only candidate who can to raise enough money to compete with Romney. The question is what he can do to regain the immense amount of momentum he lost from his three debate debacles and two straw poll losses. (Perhaps an announcement of endorsements from Giuliani and Palin would provide the necessary spark…)
The investors are hedging their bets on Sarah Palin after her “Would a title be too shackle-ly?” shtick, but at the same time they are hanging on to Chris Christie for dear life – despite a dozen vehement refusals to get in the race from his spokesman, from his brother, and from Christie himself. Eventually folks will work through their denial and move toward acceptance. Heh.
The person I’d watch right now? Actually, it would be Jon Huntsman. He’s into double digits in New Hampshire while playing a McCain 2008 strategy; meanwhile, he is up to 4% in the most recent national poll as well. If he surprises with a strong second place showing in New Hampshire, he may be able to parlay that into a strong showing in South Carolina as well, given his endorsements from some key figures in the state.
September 29th, 2011 at 9:50 am
And that’s after Perry recovered a couple points. He was lower.
September 29th, 2011 at 10:00 am
Endorsement by Giuliani might only hurt Perry more on the immigration issue.
“Under Rick Perry, more than 40% of new jobs went to illegal immigrants, combined with special tuition breaks for illegals, and now an endorsement by the man who defended the practice of providing sanctuary cities for those illegal in the united states”
September 29th, 2011 at 10:01 am
This is HUGE for Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to call
the Texas In-State Tuition Law similar to Florida’s Fair Policy.
It looks like tacit endorsements of Gov Perry at this point with more to follow.
From the from National Journal report on Jeb Bush’s email to fellow Republican:
September 29th, 2011 at 10:01 am
Hopefully we’ll see South Carolina’s big 2 hand out their endorsements soon.
September 29th, 2011 at 10:04 am
Pathetic, when we have people in the GOP handing out freebies to people who have no business here.
If you start providing those children here with cheap education, you’re only going to lure in more illegals.
First, stop all new illegals from coming…then we can decide what to do with those already here.
But if its not such a travesty to pull children in Mexico away from everything they are familiar with so their parents can come here and pick fruit, I see no reason why it should be considered a travesty to send them back where they came from.
September 29th, 2011 at 10:12 am
Every cronyism ethically challenge flip flopper has its thorns.
September 29th, 2011 at 10:20 am
Not sure that could be put to music or not TNTL – but the message is clear.
September 29th, 2011 at 10:22 am
Jeb Bush is after all and first of all a Bush,Bushie.
For most part anti conservative “compassionate conservative”
which equals to a card carrying RINO.
Bushies did much more damage to conservative movement and the country (“What conservative movement?There is no conservative movement”-George W Bush) than Barak Obama.
We always knew who Obama is,Bushies inflicted huge damages from within.
September 29th, 2011 at 10:24 am
7:
Hey, if someone can come up with a song called pants on the ground I’m sure it could be done.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMwhl4IrPNc
September 29th, 2011 at 10:38 am
New Survey USA Poll – Florida
Two Man Race -
Romney 27
Cain 25
Perry 13 (wow?)
Link: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ab381464-4b12-4dec-ab94-0e9516575817
It looks like Perry is falling faster than anyone predicted!
September 29th, 2011 at 10:39 am
NY Post exclusive: Christie reconsidering as a result of being lobbied by George HW Bush, Henry Kissinger and Nancy Reagan:
http://www.nypost.com/
September 29th, 2011 at 10:50 am
Plus Huntsman has that highly-coveted celebrity endorsement from Michael Moore.
September 29th, 2011 at 10:54 am
Don’t show to that Craig guy, he’ll go bald by the end of the week.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:03 am
Heh, be funny if three people between the ages of 87-90 got him in the race.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:07 am
Huntsman went down, even though he’s gained traction nationally and he’s broken 10% in NH?
September 29th, 2011 at 11:19 am
With all due respect, a 390-pound man is not going to win the election. As much policy and positions matter, Americans want somebody who looks presidential. He is the one potential candidate that does not look presidential. He is obese, to put it bluntly.
September 29th, 2011 at 11:20 am
MassCon
#15. I know, it makes about as much sense as Christie going up, after saying for the bazillionth time he isn’t running.
But the Christie Clingers hold out hope. Unfortunately, all this stupid melodrama detracts from the actual campaign.
September 30th, 2011 at 2:10 pm
Actually Huntsman’s stocks going down makes sense in a way since too weak Perry could enable Romney to win Iowa and momentum from that would hurt Huntsman’s chances in New Hampshire. In some Iowa poll Romney lead the pack recently.
January 17th, 2012 at 7:00 pm
us coin sets…
2011 September | Race 4 2012…