I found this over on the Huffington Post polling page. Yes, yes, I know. However, Mark Blumenthal is a well respected pollster and numbers man. I would take his findings over Nate Silver’s any day of the week.
They polled 160 Republican political “outsiders” in the key states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. “Outsiders” are political activists, party officials and officeholders at the state and local level. They are considered “insiders” locally, but “outsiders” in respect to Washington. Their reasoning for polling them goes as follows:
In their book, “The Party Decides,” political scientists Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel and John Zaller argue that “party leaders, aligned groups, and activists” have been a “systematic force in presidential nominations.” In particular, they find these influential party actors are “a major reason that all nominees since the 1970s have been credible and at least reasonably electable representatives of their partisan traditions.”
And, I might add, these guys have a very professional interest in the race. Many of their livelihoods depend upon correctly gauging the strengths and weaknesses of candidates, and the mood of the electorate.
If you are interested, you can find all of these “outsiders” listed by name here.
They asked these 160 Republican “outsiders” in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Iowa three questions about Romney and Perry.
Question #1: Over the past two weeks, has you impression grown more favorable, less favorable, or stayed about the same?
Romney Perry More Favorable 47 16 Less Favorable 13 57 About the Same 41 26 Unsure/No Answer 0 1
No real surprise here. Nearly everyone has a less favorable opinion of Perry after that horrible debate performance. Even many of his supporters are thinking less of him after that fiasco.
It is interesting to note that Romney, who has been around for a while, has nearly twice as many people not changing their opinions of him as Perry did. Perry is the new guy, the unvetted guy, the untried guy. You would expect that.
Questions #2: Between the two, which has the best chance of defeating Obama?
Romney 63 Perry 24 Both 2 Neither 5 Unsure 6
Question #3: Between the two of them, which would make the best President?
Romney 56 Perry 30 Both 3 Neither 4 Unsure 8
Romney creamed Perry on these last two questions concerning electability and competence.
Now I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on this poll just yet. As far as I can see, it is little better than a straw poll taken at a political conference such as the one taken last weekend in Florida. Cain trounced Perry and Romney in that one. However, it does portend serious trouble ahead for the Perry campaign if he can’t moderate them soon. Blumenthal said it “…poses a mortal threat to the Perry campaign. If it persists, Perry will have trouble raising money, gaining further endorsements and, ultimately, winning over rank-and-file Republicans who participate in caucuses and vote in primaries.”
Time will tell.
September 29th, 2011 at 2:18 am
HILARIOUS clip on the Colbert Report mocking Perry. A must see: http://xfinitytv.comcast.net/tv/Colbert-Report/94816/12030258/The-Colbert-Report-9-27-2011/videos?skipTo=231&cmpid=FCST_hp_xfinitytv
September 29th, 2011 at 5:05 am
There are two Rick Perry’s. The Great Texas Governor Rick Perry everyone thought he was and the real Rick Perry. The Problem for Rick Perry is he hasn’t even come close to living up to his reputation as the Great Texas Governor. Instead he has turned out to be a flubbing, stumbling, bumbler who couldn’t even execute a pre-rehearsed attack line. Apparently, instead of fixing his problem, he is instead going to double down on attacking Romney which means he is doubling down on stupid.
What Rick Perry and Company haven’t figured out, the real competition isn’t Mitt Romney, its Micheal Bachmann and Iowa. If Rick Perry is to have a chance at the nomination, he has to beat Bachmann, and beat her badly in Iowa. If either Romoney or Bachmann take Iowa,Rick Perry is toast. We already know he is going to be beaten badly in New Hampshire. Rick Perry is on the verge of coming in third in Iowa, and he will not be able to survive it if he does.
September 29th, 2011 at 10:15 am
This poll expresses what the Rombots have been saying.
Perry is all hat and no cattle and will be EXPOSED. I seriously doubt the bloodletting is over.
Also, Perry suffered a similar fate to Giuliani…….Starting off with huge poll numbers without having earned them…..and then not being able to live up to the high expectations.
Add to that the contrast between his conceit and bombast and how he wilted in the presense of Mitt and he comes off locking horrible.
And now his is playing the sissy game of lying behind Mitt’s back.
That stuff didn’t fly in grade school and it certainly won’t fly in the GOP primary…
September 29th, 2011 at 11:21 am
What’s also interesting is that two of the three states they did include the two states least likely for Romney to be successful. What would the results be if they surveyed four states, i.e. adding Nevada? Or additional early states?
September 29th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
I would bet that there’s a correlation between this poll and the ARG poll results in Iowa yesterday. Mitt seems to be moving up in Iowa, sans campaigning. Iowans have gotten a good look at the competition and seem less than enthusiastic.
Iowa is a plum, waiting to be picked by Team Romney.
September 29th, 2011 at 5:04 pm
47% of local Republican leaders in these three early voting states view Romney “more favorably” than they did two weeks ago, and 57% view Perry “less favorably” than they did two weeks ago.
Local Republican leaders have lots of pull with the electorate, and this is probably a nationwide trend among local leaders.
Mitt Romney will be our next President.
September 29th, 2011 at 6:32 pm
It’s time to stop bashing Romney and making him the butt of jokes! We must back him in every way or the alternative will be the Pied Piper Obama. We need to actually listen to Romney’s Ideas and give him a fair shake. As we should do w/ all of the candidates. The GOP candidates need to stop the pettiness and treat each other w/ respect and let the chips fall where they may. As for Obama-they should bash away!