This was unexpected:

Nevada Republicans will allow Florida to jump ahead of them on the presidential nominating calendar to preserve the state’s full slate of delegates to the Republican National Convention, state GOP chairwoman Amy Tarkanian said Friday.

The rub was this: the RNC rules gave four states (IA, NH, NV, and SC) permission to go before March 6. However, those same rules said the RNC would penalize even those four states if they jumped before February 1. Everyone assumed that with Florida jumping to January 31, the RNC would waive the second part of that rule – allowing IA, NH, NV, and SC to jump back to January with no penalty.

Well, earlier today the RNC made it clear that “the rules are the rules” and that those four early states would indeed lose half their delegates if they moved.

In light of losing half their delegates, the Nevada GOP executive board met tonight and decided to break away from the other three early states and stay in February. They will meet again tomorrow night to choose a date. The Politico article linked mentions that February 4 would be a natural choice for them…

I realize Gov. Johnson’s stature in the polls might not warrant a frontpage post over something so minor, but I feel that Gov. Johnson’s message here is far too important to not be heard.  The way in which US citizen and New Mexico native Anwar al-Awlaki was executed is very, very disturbing.

September 30, 2011, Santa Fe, NM — Responding to the killing in Yemen of AnWar al-Awlaki an American citizen, presidential candidate Gary Johnson released a statement this morning pointing out that the attack may be the first time a U.S. citizen has been specifically targeted for death in the “War on Terror”, and raises questions about American citizens’ rights to due process under the law.

Johnson said, “Let there be no doubt.  We have to be vigilant, we have to protect the U.S. and U. S. citizens from terrorist attacks, and we have to aggressively pursue those who would do us harm.  At the same time we cannot allow the War on Terror to diminish our steadfast adherence to the notion of due process for American citizens.  The protections under the Constitution for those accused of crimes do not just apply to people we like — they apply to everyone, including a terrorist like al-Awlaki.  It is a question of due process for American citizens.”

”I understand that laws may allow these decisions by the President and other officials in regard to al-Awlaki, and I do not in any way want to diminish the skill and dedication of our CIA and military.  But, at the same time, it must not be overlooked — and thoughtfully examined — that our government targeted a U.S. citizen for death, and carried out that sentence on foreign soil.  To my knowledge, that is a first, and a precedent that raises serious questions.

“If we allow our fervor to eliminate terrorist threats to cause us to cut corners with the Constitution and the fundamental rights of American citizens, whether it be invasions of privacy or the killing of someone born on U.S. soil, I could argue that the terrorists will have ultimately won.

“The world is very likely a better place without al-Awlaki in it, but let us not neglect to ask the tough questions this attack raises and about the laws that allowed it to be carried out.”

-R4’12 is happy to present the following Op-Ed from Ryan Larsen.-KWN

_______________________________________________________________________

The first problem with the Beacon Hill study/attack on Romneycare it that it is limited to determining the impact of health care cost increases on the surrounding economy. It is not designed to determine what caused the increase in health care costs to begin with. The study, in other words, had no basis for concluding anything about Romneycare.

But it gets worse. The study makes this assumption because it defers to an earlier study which, in perhaps a Freudian slip, states at one point: “We employed the same mythology.” And, indeed, there is “mythology” in their methodology. Their trend numbers, which they use in comparing health costs under Romneycare with costs before Romneycare, are faulty. For instance, in Table 11 their “trend” numbers claim that costs in 2006 were expected to decline from 2005, but this is clearly a false trend since costs had increased every year since 1998.

They then subtract their false trend numbers from the actual cost increase, creating the impression that costs rose at a faster rate. The bogus numbers compound each year, as the false trend numbers get further off course. We can see this play out in each of their tables. Consider table 12, insurance premiums for an average single plan. From 2000 to 2005, costs increased by $1500; meanwhile, from 2004 to 2009, costs only increased by $1100. That’s a downward trend. Yet the study claims that the premium rate in 2009 was $215 higher than the trend.

This disqualifies both studies. The first study was based on the difference between actual numbers and false trend numbers. The second study is based on the first study.

Even with the flaws in Romneycare, the costly provisions added by the legislature and new governor, it has slowed the rate of many health care cost increases in Massachusetts – despite the aging population of baby boomers (eg. hip and knee replacements are up dramatically, as well as MRI/CT scans, and mobility scooters). In all, it is working. Think how effective it would be if Romney had been able to do it his way. As he said, “There is no question in my mind that our program could be significantly improved if it were managed by a conservative administration.”

Using the raw data contained in their own tables, let’s look at how costs have slowed. Keep in mind that Romneycare went into effect in 2007. To measure it’s effectiveness we start with the previous year, 2006, so as to contrast the status prior to the law taking effect with the most current status reflected in available numbers.

Table 9: State medicaid spending increased by $1.4 billion from 2003 through 2006, and by $1.5 billion from 2006 through 2009. Again, the slight increase is attributable to the aging population.

Table 10: Medicare Advantage monthly rate increased by $166 from 2002 through 2006, and by only $139 from 2006 through 2010.

Table 11: Medicare Personal Health Care expenditures increased by 1.4 billion from 2003 through 2006, and by only 1.3 billion from 2006 through 2009.

Table 12: Average Insurance Premium (Single) increased by $952 from 2003 through 2006, and by only $820 from 2006 through 2009.

Table 13: Average Insurance Premium (Family) increased by $2423 from 2003 through 2006, and by $2433 frp, 2006 through 2009. Only ten dollar difference between cost increases.

As far as comparing MA with other states, MA had the highest costs before Romneycare. They are higher now, they were higher then. However, Rhode Island and New Jersey are right behind MA. The obvious correllation here is that RI, NJ and MA are by far the three most densely populated states in the nation. When you receive an MRI scan, the hospital charge is primarily for their investment in purchasing the scanner in the first place, not the cost of the actual scan. Likewise, additional costs accrue in densely populated states. Land costs more, so hospitals cost more. Construction is more crowded, cumbersome and costly. The initial expenditure is higher, and so then are the costs to recoup that expenditure.

Massachusetts has both the second highest personal income per capita, and personal disposable income per capita, behind only Connecticut. Disposable income influences the health care decisions people make, such as how often to visit their doctor and to seek care at a hospital. This affects cost.

-Ryan Larsen blogs at WhyRomney

Robert Costa over at NRO is reporting that the rumors that Christie is considering a run are real:

In conversations today with Chris Christie’s inner circle, the message was clear: The Garden State governor will probably not decide by Sunday. He also does not feel pressure to announce anything on Monday or Tuesday. He knows the clock is ticking, and is well aware of the speculation, but will not be rushed.

…

The takeaway as of early Friday evening is this: He’s closer now to running than he ever has been, but there are numerous considerations — personal and strategic — that could tilt him away from the race.

So either Christie’s inner circle is lying about Christie’s intentions, or the governor really is contemplating a run. I’d bet on the latter. None of this means that a Christie run will actually happen, but folks shouldn’t simply swat these rumors down without first considering the sources, and thinking through the implications.

At the beginning of the month Texas Gov. Rick Perry seemed to be picking up unstoppable momentum on his way to the top of the GOP field.  But after 3 poor debate performances, serious questions over the his previous positions, and charges of crony capitalism have stalled Perry’s rise.  In some states, the governor has even seen a drop in his support, a fact best symbolized by his stunning loss in the Florida P5 straw poll.  Despite his rocky month, Gov. Perry is still on pace for a solid first quarter of fundraising and enjoys considerable strengths among evangelicals, southerners, and Tea Party supporters.

Gov. Perry’s stumbles have allowed Gov. Mitt Romney to regain the top spot in the field, a spot he seemed destined to lose just a few weeks ago.  Romney’s second run for the presidency is easily his better effort.  His team has been extremely disciplined and the candidate has performed better than he ever has in the past.  With uncertainty clouding Perry’s campaign, Romney has once again emerged as the candidate who can claim both competency and electability.  However, a tougher challenge for Romney will be the possible entry of Gov. Chris Christie into the race.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has spent much of the past year denying any interest at all in running for president.  But in the past few weeks Christie’s calculations seemed to have shifted, as scores of GOP leaders and donors have pleaded with the governor to enter the race.  After a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, during which supporters openly begged him to toss his hat in the ring, Christie appears to have reconsidered his long-standing refusal to run.  Should Christie ultimately take the plunge, he will be greeted with a ready-made campaign and a donor rolodex that has been dormant for much of the campaign cycle.  It is easy to see how Christie could become the new frontrunner, however, Romney’s organization and Perry’s evangelical strength combined with an earlier primary calender will make the governor’s path more difficult than some realize.

Sarah Palin has sent several mixed signals lately about a potential run for president.  First, her PAC sent out an email to supports suggesting they gear up for a soon-to-be-announced campaign.  Then the former governor contradicted this notion on Fox News, once again questioning whether she needs ‘a title’ to make a difference.  Palin has also stated that her previous self-imposed deadline of September 30 no longer stands, and that she could take until the end of October to make a decision.  The question becomes how much longer will her supporters tolerate being strung along month to month?

Herman Cain was seemingly near the end of his campaign when he shocked the country with a huge upset win in the Florida P5 straw poll.  Gov. Rick Perry had set his site on the straw poll and committed resources to winning it, only to be blown out by a surging Cain.  Cain has also thrilled the base with his debating style and his catchy 9-9-9 plan.  Tea Partiers dissatisfied with the crashing campaign of Rep. Michele Bachmann and the still stumbling Perry seem to be shifting heavily to the Hermanator.

Ron Paul has had another solid quarter of fundraising combined with mixed debate performances.  His followers are out in force and are keeping him within the top 3 or 4 in most polls, though room for growth for Paul is difficult to see.  Gov. Jon Huntsman closed up shop in Florida and moved his floundering campaign to New Hampshire where he will stay camped out for the next several weeks in the hopes of securing a McCain-like upset.  Rick Santorum, along with Mr. Cain, is beginning to pick off supporters of the collapsing Bachmann and the stalling Perry.  He has criticized the rest of the field more forcefully and effectively in the debates than the other contenders and may find an opening in Iowa. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich continues to dazzle in debates with little to show for it.  Aside from his debate performances, Gingrich’s campaign is a flop and is already in debt.  Rep. Thaddeus McCotter was apparently also running for president, but dropped out and endorsed Mitt Romney.  Gary Johnson finally got back into the debates, but likely for the last time now that the benchmarks for qualification will begin to be harder for him to reach.

On to the rankings:

1. Mitt Romney
2. Rick Perry
3. Chris Christie
4. Herman Cain
5. Ron Paul
   
6. Sarah Palin
7. Rick Santorum
   
8. Jon Huntsman
   
9. Michele Bachmann
10. Newt Gingrich

VP Watch: 1. Marco Rubio  2. Bob McDonnell  3. Rob Portman  4. Paul Ryan  5. Susana Martinez

“Boom” is the sound of the bomb that this drops on R4’12:

Mike Huckabee has been approached by Republican and conservative activists unhappy with the current crop of presidential hopefuls and he is considering entering the fray, two sources who have spoken with Huckabee told Reuters.

The former Arkansas governor, who made a splash by winning the Iowa caucuses as a candidate in 2008, announced last May on his Fox News show that he would not enter the race.

But the conservative Huckabee, who appeals to evangelical Christians and is seen as an effective campaigner, is taking another look at jumping in, said the two sources, who are close to Huckabee. They spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity.

“He is entertaining the request for conversations about it,” one of the sources said. “I do not think it is a complete 100 percent ‘I’m reconsidering’ but he hasn’t shut the door on it.”

One of the sources said Huckabee was urged to enter after the recent stumbles of Texas Governor Rick Perry, who appeals to a similar right wing of the Republican party.

Huckabee’s response, “”It’s news to me that I’m sitting down plotting my comeback,” Huckabee said Friday on Fox News.”

Full report here.

I found a new poll online (h/t RightSpeak). It is called the Purple Poll. It focuses exclusively upon likely voters in the 12 swing states which have decided the election in the past 12 years. These states are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, NorthCarolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.  They are often called the “battleground” states.

They divided the states up into four groups: the “Wild West” (CO, NV, NM), the “Heartland” (IA, MN, WI), the “Rust Belt” (NH, OH, PA), and the “Southern Swing” (FL, NC, VA).

Here are a couple of results from their September polling. A complete report may be found here:

	Obama vs. Romney
	Obama	Romney	Not Sure	Diff
Total	43	46	11	3
CO,NV,NM	42	45	13	3
IA,MN,WI	48	44	8	-4
NH,OH,PA	42	46	11	4
FL,NC,VA	43	48	9	5
Male	41	50	9	9
Female	45	42	13	-3
GOP	8	83	9	75
Ind	39	48	13	9
Dem	78	11	10	-67
Non-College	42	45	13	3
College+	44	47	9	3

Romney leads almost everywhere. Not counting the Democrats, the President leads only in the “Heartland” and among Females.

	Obama vs. Perry
	Obama	Perry	Not Sure	Diff
Total	46	44	10	-2
CO,NV,NM	45	43	12	-2
IA,MN,WI	49	40	10	-9
NH,OH,PA	46	44	9	-2
FL,NC,VA	46	46	8	0
Male	44	47	9	3
Female	48	40	12	-8
GOP	11	79	10	68
Ind	46	41	13	-5
Dem	79	12	8	-67
Non-College	44	42	13	-2
College+	48	45	7	-3

Perry doesn’t do nearly as well as Romney against the President. He leads nowhere in the country. He does manage a tie with Obama in the “Swinging South”. The only demographic he leads are the Males and among fellow Republicans. Everyone else goes to the current occupant of the White House.

Rasmussen Reports National General Election Matchup

• Romney – 44% (41)
• Obama – 42% (44)

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted Sept 28-29 with a margin of error of +/-3%.

Hat-Tip: Texas Conservative

Politico has the news:

It’s official – Florida has now moved the date of its primary to Jan. 31. There will be more reaction in the coming hours, but the first out of the gate was from Iowa GOP chairman Matt Strawn, who was displeased and and made clear that his state will follow suit – resulting in a very compressed race to the first votes.

Strawn said he will announce the date of the Iowa caucuses as soon as New Hampshire sets the date for their primary — so all eyes are now on Secretary of State Gardner in the Granite State. As noted here before, the Nevada GOP’s language sets their caucus for “the Saturday after the New Hampshire primary,” and South Carolina is likely to go one or two Tuesdays after Nevada… so as soon as Gardner announces that will pretty much set the rest of the calendar.

I wouldn’t be surprised if New Hampshire sets their primary for January 17, making the calendar look like this:

January 9 – Iowa
January 17 – New Hampshire
January 21 – Nevada
January 24 – South Carolina
January 31 – Florida
February 7 – Colorado
February 28 – Arizona, Michigan

The official RNC deadline for states to move their primaries or caucuses is tomorrow, so theoretically we should have a finalized calendar in the next day or two. Theoretically.

UPDATE: William Gardner has said in light of Florida’s decision, he will be discussing with the other three early states and announce a date after “the dust clears”. Interestingly, Gardner said this morning that he cannot rule out a December primary, which strikes me as rather extreme. He has announced, however, the filing period to get on the New Hampshire ballot: October 17-28 – making Oct 28th the earliest filing deadline, I believe.

UPDATE 2: South Carolina GOP Chairman Chad Connelly is reportedly going to choose either the Saturday or the Tuesday before Florida for the SC primary — putting it at January 28 or January 24. He apparently was leaning toward a Saturday primary, interestingly enough, but may choose the Tuesday date as it will cost less than keeping schools and other voting places open on a Saturday.

UPDATE 3: It has been confirmed by MSNBC that the four early states – IA, NH, NV, and SC – are all in communication with one another and will “likely” announce their primary and caucus dates jointly.

Rasmussen Reports National General Election Matchup

• Obama – 44%
• Christie – 43%
• Someone Else – 6%
• Undecided – 8%

Favorability Ratings:
Among Republicans:

• Christie has a 58% approval rating (no numbers provided for disapproval)

Among all voters:

• Christie – 38/27

Should Christie run for President?
Among Republicans:

• Yes – 32%
• No – 25%
• Unsure – 43%

Among all voters:

• Yes – 20%
• No – 37%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was taken Sept 28-29 with a margin of error of +/-3%.

PPP (D) Florida 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 45%
• Ron Paul 44%

• Barack Obama 46% {47%} [46%] (46%)
• Mitt Romney 45% {43%} [44%] (44%)

• Barack Obama 49% {49%}
• Michele Bachmann 44% {40%}

• Barack Obama 50%
• Rick Perry 43%

• Barack Obama 50% [50%] (47%)
• Newt Gingrich 42% [42%] (42%)

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 48% of the vote in Florida. In 2004, George W. Bush received 52% of the vote in FL.

(more…)

Rasmussen Virginia 2012 Senatorial Survey

• Tim Kaine 46%
• George Allen 45%
• Some other candidate 3%
• Undecided 7%

Among Independents

• Tim Kaine 48%
• George Allen 38%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• George Allen 47% / 39% {+8%}
• Tim Kaine 47% / 40% {+7%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 28, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points

(more…)

Christie rumor du jour? Nancy Reagan’s personal plea on Tuesday night had a major effect on Gov. Christie. Consequently, he is now leaning towards a presidential run.

After weeks and months of advanced leaked stories and appearances on shows like “The View”, Joe McGinniss’s exposé on Sarah Palin has finally hit the bookshelves. The response has been a bit underwhelming.

According to industry sales numbers reported today from Nielsen Bookscan, the most reliable tracker for the book industry, “The Rogue: Searching for the Real Sarah Palin” by Joe McGinniss sold a total of just 6,034 copies in the first week.

Warehouse sales were also slow for “The Rogue,” with Ingram inventory barely dropping at all the first three days this week. Independent bookstores often order from wholesalers like Ingram and chain bookstores sometimes re-order from wholesalers, so it’s a good gauge of consumer demand.

I wouldn’t mind it one bit if the publisher takes a major hit on this. These slime attacks on Sarah Palin have gone on long enough. It’s time for them to stop.

Mitt Romney has penned the following editorial on how he will control the spending of the Federal Government when elected President (emphasis not in the original.):

Here is How I Will Control Federal Spending

Since President Obama assumed office two and a half years ago, federal spending has accelerated at a pace without precedent in recent history, taking us from an already staggering $3.5 trillion in federal spending in 2010 to a projected $5.6 trillion within the next decade.

This is the financial equivalent of speeding against traffic on a superhighway. It’s dangerous. It has to stop.

A household cannot become prosperous by spending all its money and running up a credit card bill.

Neither can a government or a country. Instead of putting the United States on a path toward economic recovery, the Obama administration’s spending binge threatens to turn us into another Greece, a chronic debtor state teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.

The indicators are all equally alarming. Since the 1950s, federal spending as a percentage of GDP has hovered around 20 percent.

When President Obama took office, it shot up to 25 percent, a level not seen since World War II. Before the recession, the federal government spent $25,000 per household. That number has now soared past $30,000 and is on track to hit $35,000 within the next decade.

All this money has to come from somewhere. If President Obama stays in the White House for another four years, some of it will come from the higher taxes the administration is seeking to impose. The rest of it will have to be borrowed. Before Obama assumed office, our country’s indebtedness was 40.3 percent of GDP. Current projections have it hitting 69 percent this year.

If anyone wonders why unemployment is stuck above 9 percent, and why some 25 million Americans are unemployed, underemployed, or are no longer looking for work, we should pause on that 69 percent figure. Every dollar that the government borrows for its operations is a dollar that cannot be invested in productive privatesector activity. Runaway federal spending crowds out private investment. At a moment when the public sector is flourishing as never before, it is unsurprising that the private sector has withered.

I have spent most of my life in the private sector, starting companies and turning around failing ones. What the federal government is doing today is a classic formula for ruin. I know how to set priorities and rein in costs.

In 2003, I became governor of a state hobbled by a deficit and shedding jobs as it came out of a recession. Working with a legislature under solid (85 percent!) Democratic control, I cut taxes 19 times, reformed and reorganized state government, and balanced the budget four years in a row. By the time I left office, Massachusetts employers were once again hiring, and the state had a rainy-day surplus of $2 billion.

The steps we must take to undo the damage inflicted by Barack Obama are as obvious as they are politically difficult. We must cut government spending, cap that spending at a sustainable level — 20 percent of GDP is the target I would shoot for — and pass a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution. Cut, cap and balance are three words that are spoken far too rarely in Washington. But they embody my approach.

I will press for full repeal of Obamacare, which will save hundreds of billions of dollars. I will reduce the size of the federal workforce and align the wages and benefits of federal workers with the private sector. And I will set about the hard work of fundamentally restructuring the federal government.

Taxpayer money is today being used to underwrite a maze of rules, regulations and overlapping government agencies whose complexity defies the understanding even of those who inhabit the system. A first step in reform is acknowledging that the federal government cannot be everything to everyone.

There are many functions that the private sector can perform better than the public sector. Amtrak is a classic example. We can also use block grants to enable states to draw on federal resources while tailoring programs to their specific local needs.

That’s how Medicaid should be handled. It is also precisely what I have proposed in a plan under which the federal government will spend $4 trillion less than what the Obama administration — as detailed in its own mid-year budget projections — plans to spend over the next decade. And $4 trillion is just a down payment on future savings to come.

Getting the federal debt under control in the wake of Obama’s spending spree promises to be an arduous task. The good news is that Americans have awoken to the problem. The even better news is that the American people have always known what Washington can’t seem to learn: we cannot spend our way to wealth.

-Mitt Romney

I really like Mitt’s can-do attitude and his forward-looking thinking. “Here is the problem”, he says, “and here’s how we are going to solve it.” The man will hit the ground running on January 20, 2013. He won’t stop until January 20, 2017 at the earliest. It’s in his very nature. It has been his whole life.

The Hill has the story:

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has not spoken to close allies in recent days and is set to break her own self-imposed deadline of the end of September to make a decision on a presidential run.

Becky Beach, Palin’s top fundraiser in Iowa and a close friend who is usually kept in the loop on the former governor’s plans, told The Hill that she had not heard from Palin in weeks about whether or not she would run in 2012.

“I don’t have any idea of her decision or her timing. The only thing I’ve heard her say is that the legal deadlines are the real deadlines, and I share her sentiment,” she said.

The deadline to get on the Utah primary ballot is Oct. 15, while the deadlines for many other states land on Oct. 31. In some states it can take weeks to gather petition signatures and get the paperwork ready to make sure candidates get on the ballot, meaning Palin is running out of time should she decide to run.

Be sure to read the full article here.

As ringleader of the Race42012.com circus, I feel it is my duty to be as impartial as I possibly can. I also feel that it is important to let folks know were I stand when it comes to the candidates.

So… In the interest of full disclosure, I have donated $5 to the Mitt Romney campaign in order to qualify for their “Win A Day on the Road with Mitt” contest. Being invited to travel with two presidential candidates was really the highlight of the 2008 cycle for me, and I have not had the opportunity to travel and “blog from the campaign trail” this time around.

Please keep you fingers crossed for me.

P.S. If I make up my mind as to who I am going to endorse or if I contribute money to any of the other campaigns, I will be sure to disclose it right away.

From the Boston Globe:

Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney is on pace to raise between $11 million and $13 million for the latest fund-raising quarter, a haul that would be much lower than the $18.2 million haul he brought in during the previous three months, according to a source familiar with the campaign’s finances.

Romney’s strong performance in a trio of recent debates had helped his fund-raising by motivating his existing supporters, but it was not enough to move some of the fence-sitters over to his camp, according to the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the campaign has not publicly released its numbers yet…

Romney aides have predicted that his top campaign rival – Texas Governor Rick Perry – will raise more than he will, even though Perry has been in the race for only six weeks.

It’s difficult to compare with the 2007-08 race since this time around the campaign began so late. But in 2007, Romney raised $21, $14, and $10 million in the first three quarters of the year. In 2011 there are no Q1 figures, but Romney raised $18 and $13 million in Q2 and Q3, respectively.

The Globe also notes Ron Paul is expected to announce around $5 million, and Bachmann has said she will not announce anything until the reports are filed with the FEC on October 15. Based on previous reports, Perry is expected to announce raising somewhere between $10 and $20 million, and it is almost certain now that Perry will report more than Romney. The question now is: will it matter?

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Qualifications Survey

Is Mitt Romney qualified to be President of the United States?

• Yes 43% [49%] (49%)
• No 28% [25%] (32%)
• Not sure 29% [25%] (20%)

Is Herman Cain qualified to be President of the United States?

• Yes 30% [18%]
• No 33% [35%]
• Not sure 37% [47%]

Is Rick Perry qualified to be President of the United States?

• Yes 30%
• No 44%
• Not sure 27%

Is Ron Paul qualified to be President of the United States?

• Yes 27% [27%]
• No 46% [43%]
• Not sure 28% [31%]

Is Michele Bachmann qualified to be President of the United States?

• Yes 21% [20%]
• No 56% [45%]
• Not sure 23% [34%]

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted September 26-27, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted June 2-3, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 17-18, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Sixty-four percent (64%) of GOP voters say Romney is qualified, 52% say the same of Perry, and 49% think Cain is up to the job. Fewer than one-in-five GOP voters believe any of these three are unqualified.

Republicans are evenly divided on Bachmann’s qualifications — 35% say she’s qualified and 37% say she’s not.

Among GOP voters, just 29% see Paul as qualified to be president.

Cain is seen as the most qualified candidate among Tea Party voters while Romney is viewed that way by non-Tea Party members.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

SurveyUSA 2012 Florida GOP Primary Poll

If the Florida Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich? Michele Bachmann? Ron Paul? Rick Perry? Herman Cain? Rick Santorum? Jon Huntsman? Or one of the other Republican candidates?

• Mitt Romney 27%
• Herman Cain 25%
• Rick Perry 13%
• Newt Gingrich 6%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Michele Bachmann 5%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Other/undecided 16%

500 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%.

Team of rivals? Maybe:

Mitt Romney is scheduled to sit down for an interview with a 2008 rival for the Republican presidential nomination, Mike Huckabee, this weekend, The Caucus has learned.

Could an important endorsement be in the works?

Mr. Huckabee will tape the interview with Mr. Romney on Friday, and it will be broadcast on his Fox News show, which airs on Saturday and Sunday evenings at 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Promos for the interview are set to broadcast Thursday afternoon on the network.

Gov. Huckabee has spent the last several weeks being very critical of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, as well as promoting Gov. Romney as the most electable candidate.  Could the two bury the hatchet and join forces for 2012?

We are one week removed from what will potentially go down as the worst debate performance in modern presidential history, and the Intrade investors reacted accordingly:

Only candidates who have announced an official candidacy or who have greater than a 3% chance at the nomination are included.

As more polls are released showing Mitt Romney retaking the lead from Rick Perry, I would expect the gap between the two to widen further. A note of caution for Romney fans, however: Rick Perry is not going to just disappear from this race. He still remains strong in the south, his key and natural constituency, and he is for all intents and purposes the only candidate who can to raise enough money to compete with Romney. The question is what he can do to regain the immense amount of momentum he lost from his three debate debacles and two straw poll losses. (Perhaps an announcement of endorsements from Giuliani and Palin would provide the necessary spark…)

The investors are hedging their bets on Sarah Palin after her “Would a title be too shackle-ly?” shtick, but at the same time they are hanging on to Chris Christie for dear life – despite a dozen vehement refusals to get in the race from his spokesman, from his brother, and from Christie himself. Eventually folks will work through their denial and move toward acceptance. Heh.

The person I’d watch right now? Actually, it would be Jon Huntsman. He’s into double digits in New Hampshire while playing a McCain 2008 strategy; meanwhile, he is up to 4% in the most recent national poll as well. If he surprises with a strong second place showing in New Hampshire, he may be able to parlay that into a strong showing in South Carolina as well, given his endorsements from some key figures in the state.

From the AP:

CONCORD, N.H. — Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani dispatched a key emissary to New Hampshire on Wednesday to gauge their interest in his possible presidential bid.

One of the mayor’s closest political advisers, Jake Menges, hosted private meetings with a host of key Republicans in the state, including Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas, likely gubernatorial candidate Kevin Smith, Congressman Charlie Bass and GOP activist Stephen Talarico, owner of Manchester Harley-Davidson.

“Jake said to me, ‘Just keep your powder dry for another few weeks,’” Talarico told The Associated Press.

Does Giuliani seriously want to get in this race?  Could he jump in with the goal of hurting Romney and helping his friend Rick Perry?  Could he fill the Christie void? Or is he just milking it for a few more weeks?

I think the fact that he is actually sending his aides to meet with New Hampshire activists means that he is more serious than Palin or Christie, who haven’t taken such steps.  More polling has come out showing that Rudy polls better against Obama than anyone and has the highest favorable numbers, so who knows which way he could go at this point.

Things have changed dramatically since May when front-runner Mike Huckabee announced that he would not be running for president.

Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry have all had their opportunities to make themselves a consistent front-runner.  Bachmann, perhaps the best alternative to Huckabee for many social conservatives, has failed to catch fire in the polls after she won the Ames Iowa Straw Poll.  It may be unfair that her supposed gaffes have been misconstrued.  It may also be unfair that a woman is held to a higher standard and is more likely to be called flaky or ditzy.   But it is what it is.

Former Senator Rick Santorum certainly carries all the conservative credentials needed to satisfy the Christian right.  But his poll numbers just don’t seem to budge, in spite of great debate performances.

On the other hand, Rick Perry has disappointed some with his debate performances and could possibly end up being the “FredThompson” of 2011. He comes up short for most pro-lifers, and for others his views of immigration are non-starters.  In the summer of 2007, Thompson was the darling of some hopefuls, but shortly after his lackluster entrance in September his own poll numbers dropped, and he never fully recovered from the perception that his heart was not in the race.[1]

Herman Cain, a tea party favorite is obviously still a factor, having won a major Florida straw poll.  His lack of experience in governing may be seen as a plus to some, and a negative to others.  He is very likely solid enough for social conservatives.

Mitt Romney, despite good debate performances hasn’t caught on either.  Perhaps his early decision to ignore the Iowa caucuses was a mistake, or his failure to be asked serious questions about Romneycare is leaving some voters with questions.  He also downplays social issues, which many in the center think is his only hope, because he failed to convince his nay-sayers in the 2008 cycle.

Ron Paul may be reaching his ceiling as well, especially until he can reconcile his 10^th Amendment views with his right-to-life claims, and convince us that Iran ought to have nuclear weapons if it wants to.  Paul is generally very principled, but that comes at a great cost, politically speaking, if his principles are counter to his party’s.

Governor Huckabee was leading in most of the polls in Iowa, the Midwest and South back in the spring.  True, he may not play well in New York and California, and perhaps even in a few Rocky Mountain states, but these states will have little impact during the Republican primary season.

Unlike Bachmann, Governor Huckabee has weathered a few gaffes and troubled spots in his record, coming out rather unscathed.  Just like bringing out supposed Romney flip-flops was a dud for Rick Perry, bringing up old arguments against Huckabee won’t likely play well, either.

Unlike Sarah Palin, Huckabee is well-liked in virtually all segments of the GOP and the general public, even among those who have differences with him on religion or policy.  He has the most-watched weekend television news show on all of cable, and his willingness to interact with the public and the press would be of great benefit in the general election.  Also, when Tim Pawlenty dropped out of the race after the Iowa Straw Poll, Sarah Sanders (Huckabee’s daughter) was freed up to possibly work again with Huckabee, as well.

Overall, the Republican electorate appears unable to make up its collective mind.

Of course, a change of Huckabee’s own mind would be required before this speculation could be changed into reality.  No one knows that better than the Governor himself.  If Huckabee is counting on a social conservative to win, he must put most of his eggs right now in the Herman Cain basket.  Even if Huckabee would be willing to endorse Cain, he might be asking himself whether the Cain Train can continue on up to the nomination.  Filing deadlines for candidates to viably enter the race might be in the next couple of weeks.

Although the people begging New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to get in the race will ignore the fact that he earlier said he was not running and give him room to change his mind, the same folks might not give Huckabee the same leeway.  He should ignore that worry.

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I found this over on the Huffington Post polling page. Yes, yes, I know. However, Mark Blumenthal is a well respected pollster and numbers man. I would take his findings over Nate Silver’s any day of the week.

They polled 160 Republican political “outsiders” in the key states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. “Outsiders” are political activists, party officials and officeholders at the state and local level. They are considered “insiders” locally, but “outsiders” in respect to Washington. Their reasoning for polling them goes as follows:

In their book, “The Party Decides,” political scientists Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel and John Zaller argue that “party leaders, aligned groups, and activists” have been a “systematic force in presidential nominations.” In particular, they find these influential party actors are “a major reason that all nominees since the 1970s have been credible and at least reasonably electable representatives of their partisan traditions.”

And, I might add, these guys have a very professional interest in the race. Many of their livelihoods depend upon correctly gauging the strengths and weaknesses of candidates, and the mood of the electorate.

If you are interested, you can find all of these “outsiders” listed by name here.

They asked these 160 Republican “outsiders” in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Iowa three questions about Romney and Perry.

Question #1: Over the past two weeks, has you impression grown more favorable, less favorable, or stayed about the same?

	Romney	Perry
More Favorable	47	16
Less Favorable	13	57
About the Same	41	26
Unsure/No Answer	0	1

No real surprise here. Nearly everyone has a less favorable opinion of Perry after that horrible debate performance. Even many of his supporters are thinking less of him after that fiasco.

It is interesting to note that Romney, who has been around for a while, has nearly twice as many people not changing their opinions of him as Perry did. Perry is the new guy, the unvetted guy, the untried guy. You would expect that.

Questions #2: Between the two, which has the best chance of defeating Obama?

Romney	63
Perry	24
Both	2
Neither	5
Unsure	6

Question #3: Between the two of them, which would make the best President?

Romney	56
Perry	30
Both	3
Neither	4
Unsure	8

Romney creamed Perry on these last two questions concerning electability and competence.

Now I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on this poll just yet. As far as I can see, it is little better than a straw poll taken at a political conference such as the one taken last weekend in Florida. Cain trounced Perry and Romney in that one. However, it does portend serious trouble ahead for the Perry campaign if he can’t moderate them soon. Blumenthal said it “…poses a mortal threat to the Perry campaign. If it persists, Perry will have trouble raising money, gaining further endorsements and, ultimately, winning over rank-and-file Republicans who participate in caucuses and vote in primaries.”

Time will tell.

Sarah Palin has an excellent essay on her facebook page. Here are some excerpts:

On Monday, during a fundraiser in California, President Obama declared that Europe’s debt problems and their inability to solve them was “scaring the world.” He went on to explain that Europeans “have not fully healed from the crisis back in 2007 and never fully dealt with the challenges that their banking system faced” and that “they’re trying to take responsible actions, but those actions haven’t been quite as quick as they need to be.”

…

One German newspaper denounced the President’s comments as “overbearing, arrogant, and absurd.” Another wrote: “The gloomy state of the economy is putting a damper on Obama’s future prospects. The optimism of the past is gone, replaced by a cheap search for a scapegoat.” And still another wrote: “That’s not how friends talk to each other. That applies particularly to friends who have themselves failed to get a handle on their own, self-made crisis.”

Can we blame them for feeling this way? Keep in mind this was a President who was supposed to make the rest of the world “like” us again.

This is what happens when we have a leader of the free world that refuses to lead. We get a big stinking mess both domestically and internationally. But oh, did he send a tingle up Chris Matthews’ leg. And one “conservative” pundit was blown away by the sharp crease in Obama’s trousers. He just knew he was in the presence of greatness.

January 20th, 2013 can’t come soon enough.

Today, the Financial Times published an article delving into the near-unanimous Republican opinion that Marco Rubio deserves the utmost consideration as the eventual nominee’s running mate:

But the party’s leaders and grass roots collectively swoon over the person they believe makes the ideal choice for vice-president, a Florida senator who has been on the national stage for barely a year.

…Since landing in Washington, Mr Rubio has been meticulous in building his brand, initially eschewing the national stage to entrench his state credentials, before stepping out with a series of speeches, focusing largely on foreign policy.

At 40 years old, the son of Cuban exiles is also at work cementing his narrative in his own words, with an announcement on Monday that a memoir is in the works.

The article also provides more background on some of Rubio’s policy positions, for those who have interest. As the author, Richard McGregor, explains, Rubio has made it a priority to distinguish himself on foreign policy, which both enhances and detracts from his viability as a VP nominee.

First, as many have discussed, the widely cited crop of Veep possibilities generally lack foreign policy experience. Barring some unforeseen circumstance, a governor will become the Republican nominee, and as we know, governors do not often have expertise on the issue (with the obvious exception of Jon Huntsman, who clearly has a long way to go to become a front-line contender). Therefore, Rubio offers the benefit of closing this perception gap more than arguably any other top-tier option.

However, the downside revolves around ideology: Rubio has become one of the, if not the most, hawkish voices on the Republican side of the aisle in Congress. With the sentiment in the GOP base taking a turn toward realism and away from neoconservatism since President Obama took office, this could create some headaches for the Republican presidential nominee.

As we saw in 2008, friction can arise both on- and backstage when the individual on the bottom of a presidential ticket disagrees with the headliner’s policy positions and proposals. The current top Republican contenders – Romney, Perry, and Cain – have generally leaned more toward the realist side when addressing foreign policy during this campaign. Again, if one of these individuals (or, for that matter, even other candidates like Huntsman, Christie, Palin, or Bachmann) nabs the nomination, tapping Rubio could create some conflict down the line.

Still, when you consider the Senator’s overall package of charisma, communication skills, personal background, and the ability to utilize big-picture rhetoric and wonky policy specifics to equal effect, Republicans have placed such great faith in Rubio for good reason.

FOX News/Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R)  2012 GOP National Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 23%
• Rick Perry 19%
• Herman Cain 17%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Jon Huntsman 4%
• Michele Bachmann 3%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Don’t Know/Other 14%

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll is based on live telephone interviews with a national sample of 925 registered voters, and was conducted September 25-27, 2011 in the evenings.