Quinnipiac National Republican Primary
- Perry – 24% (10)
- Romney – 18% (25)
- Palin – 11% (12)
- Bachmann – 10% (14)
- Paul – 9% (5)
- Cain – 5% (6)
- Gingrich – 3% (5)
- Huntsman – 1% (1)
- McCotter – 1% (-)
- Santorum – 1% (1)
- Undecided – 16% (18)
Without Palin
- Perry – 26%
- Romney – 20%
- Bachmann – 12%
- Paul – 10%
- Cain – 5%
- Gingrich – 4%
- Santorum – 2%
- Huntsman – 1%
- McCotter – 1%
General Election Matchups
- Romney – 45%
- Obama – 45%
- Obama – 45%
- Perry – 42%
- Obama – 48%
- Bachmann – 39%
- Obama – 51%
- Palin – 37%
Survey of 1185 Republican voters (primary) and 2730 registered voters (general election) was conducted August 16-27. Margins of error are +/-2.9% (primary) and +/-1.9% (general election).
August 31st, 2011 at 11:12 am
Rick Perry supported amnesty:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/the-perry-letters/2011/03/29/gIQARee3rJ_blog.html
August 31st, 2011 at 11:13 am
The Perry slide has begun…………………………..
August 31st, 2011 at 11:14 am
Amnesty??? is that a Tea Party plank?????
August 31st, 2011 at 11:16 am
•Perry – 24% (10)
•Romney – 18% (25)
Those darn trends
Perry up, what – 240%!
Romney CONTINUES to be in free-fall mode. Ouch!
August 31st, 2011 at 11:17 am
I’m starting to think that this may work out well for Romney in the end. If Perry can’t consolidate his lead (and I’m interested that Palin support doesn’t all flow to him) and Romney’s numbers stay consistent, others looking at a late entry will shy away. And Romney will be strengthened by the perception he held off a strong challenge.
The next six weeks may in fact be decisive. If Perry’s traction builds in IA, SC and FL the odds are good for him. If he slips at all it may in fact turn into a rout, and Romney could wrap things up pretty quickly. Either way, I think the odds of a late entry have pretty much dropped to zero.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:17 am
CF,
Did you get un-banned by Kavon already?
August 31st, 2011 at 11:19 am
5.
I see a rout alright — but not the one you’re wishin’ for.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:19 am
6
Ban? Nobody “banned” me?
August 31st, 2011 at 11:22 am
Yes, He will enjoy his retirement under the careful stewardship of President Perry.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:24 am
#7 – The burden’s actually on Perry to consolidate his support and demonstrate his leadership of the process. He needs a quick KO or else he’ll fall quickly. Romney already has the $$ and institutional support to wage a long campaign. Classic “tortise and the hare.”
I’m hardly a Romney fan, though I think he’s probably our best bet to take the WH.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:25 am
The next six weeks may in fact be decisive. If Perry’s traction builds in IA, SC and FL the odds are good for him. If he slips at all it may in fact turn into a rout, and Romney could wrap things up pretty quickly. Either way, I think the odds of a late entry have pretty much dropped to zero.
I think this is fantastic analysis.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:26 am
It interests me that the writer’s scenario once again cedes all agency to Perry–it hinges on a Perry failure–while Romney is the passive beneficiary in the aftermath. Even his supporters cannot imagine Romney seizing the initiative to control his own fate.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:26 am
This race could go either way at the moment – it will either be an easy Perry win or an easy Romney win, IMO. We should know which way the scales will tip by the end of October. David nailed it.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:28 am
10
Good point. Romney is in this for the long haul, he’s got groundwork going. The folly of Perry is that he actually got in too -soon-. His biggest ally right now is a shock-and-awe sprint before his record comes out and his debates begin.
This poll is pretty credible (2,730 wow!), unlike the southern-skewed CNN one and the Dem-aligned PPP survey. I like Romney’s chances here a lot.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:29 am
Yes, because what it gets right is Romney’s impotence to control his own destiny, even if the analyst errs to infer a Romney wipe-out from the single trend-line of a Perry failure to consolidate his lead or something.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:30 am
#12 – Romney’s strategy has always been predicated on having the $$ and organization to muscle the field into submission. Perry complicated that strategy, but the work Romney’s done over the past two years will have proven to be a good hedge. Perry needs to wrap things up fast; there’s no way he can beat Romney in a drawn-out campaign.
Look at Mondale/Hart in 1984. Yes, Romney’s Mondale, for the purposes of study.
That, in my view, is initiative.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:33 am
Upon reflection I will say Mondale/Hart isn’t a perfect analogy because Hart didn’t emerge until his 3rd place caucus result, and Perry is the national frontrunner, but it works from the “exciting new face”/”established leader”
perspective.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:33 am
Is this how Romney supporters console yourselves, by gathering together to develop fantastical scenarios as a palliative against the pain of the brute fact of your candidate’s underperformance? It’s strange to witness. It’s like listening in on the chants of witches during a banishing ritual.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:34 am
I will happily concede this point.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:36 am
Looks like Perry is not so electable, even at the height of his post-entry bounce. You know, George W. Bush created jobs in Texas at a rate twice as large as Perry has done, and Ann Richards, the governor before Bush, created jobs at about the same rate as Perry did. If you take out the oul-related jobs pover the past 10 years, and you take out the government jobs that Perry has added (he grew his government at a higher rate than the federal government grew), the Texas Miracle is gone. Texas becomes a middle-of-the-road state on job creation.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:37 am
#18 / #19, as I’ve said before I’m hardly a Romney fan. I’d support Christie and Ryan over him, and think that the Huntsman campaign hasn’t served the candidate well (I’d love to support him.)
I’m just an experienced political hand who’s callin’ ‘em like I see ‘em.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:40 am
20. That’s what I have been trying to say, and it’s why Perry has such low favorability ratings down here in Texas. If tea partiers knew Perry’s record on immigration, government spending, pay-for-play politics, etc., they would all be disgusted.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:40 am
That’s just too bad 1.9 gpa can’t win the general. Four more years of bambi. That really sucks.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:42 am
20
What you’re seeing here, among the people who aren’t taking to Romney, is a massive “pull the wool over our eyes” campaign. People really, really want to believe that Perry is their White Knight – they are simply refusing, refusing with all their will to see the reality of it.
I don’t blame them, it’s desperation time. They know that Rick Perry is their last chance, their Alamo, their D-Day…to stop Mitt Romney. So the far right is going all out the illusion campaign to push him as far as possible before he sinks. Their hope, I think, is to provide cover for him long enough until Iowa.
It’s not going to work, the distance is too far, and the candidate is too damaged, too weak in the marathon run.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:42 am
Ken Crow, the founder of the Tea Party of America, told ABC News this morning that he “hung up with [Palin's] people five minutes ago” and “she’ll be here on Saturday.”
======================================
Any comment Craig?
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/08/palins-saturday-speech-still-on-tea-party-founder-says/
August 31st, 2011 at 11:43 am
22. Don’t worry, Perry is in his honeymoon period. He hasn’t had to answer tough questions yet. Few Americans outside of Texas, let alone tea partiers, know his record on all of those central issues. I suspect that when they do, the national favorability ratings will reflect those in your own state.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:44 am
I’m going to call it for our most conservative candidate who has trended upwards in EVERY SINGLE POLL. Open your eyesfolks. It’s staring back at ya.
James Richard “Rick” Perry
August 31st, 2011 at 11:46 am
casuist sounds like a naive high school kid, and may b. this is way early to call a winner, but if Perry doesn’t win it with all the media support of FOX and the talk radio boys, he should be embarrassed.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:47 am
So, for all of George W. Bush’s job prowess (twice as good as Perry’s record), how did that translate to the national economy? At the national level, there is no one industry that produces 1 in 3 jobs, like the oil industry does in Texas. Our aim is to shrink the size of the federal government, so Perry will not be able rely on growing the government like he did in Texas. In other words, he is less prepared than George W. Bush was to move from texas and lead the world’s economy.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:48 am
Frankie,
Yes, I have one comment:
The Christine O’Donnell (“I’m not a witch”) and Sarah Palin (“I didn’t quit after 29 months as gov”) Comedy Hour must go on!
Send in the clowns — there must be clowns!
August 31st, 2011 at 11:49 am
a vote for Ricky is a vote for amnesty
August 31st, 2011 at 11:49 am
27:
That’s what rudy and hillary said.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:50 am
Huntsman is really catching fire. Romney is doomed.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:51 am
a vote for Ricky is a vote for MANDATED healthcare!!!
he loved Hillarycare
and if he gets a little cash on the side who cares, right?
August 31st, 2011 at 11:51 am
The only candidates in the race with potential for upward movement are:
Romney
Perry
Palin
Santorum
August 31st, 2011 at 11:51 am
The real problem for Perry is that he has peaked too soon. You want to peak in November. Sure, he has “rock star” status now while nobody really knows his record, and his campaign is trying to keep him in controlled settings as much as possible, but there is still too much time for people to find out. For the purposes of strategy, he should have jumped in on October.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:52 am
Rick Perry and Ron Paul are the only ones that have any upward momentum if you compare July’s Quinn to August’s Quinn……..
August 31st, 2011 at 11:52 am
Our last chance to stop Willard “I gave you RomneyCare” Romney? He never stood a chance in either the regional base of the GOP (the South), or with the 2 most active ideological formations of the GOP, social conservatives, and t-partiers. This was before Perry appeared on the scene to suck all the air out of the room for Romney.
No one needs to “stop” Romney. Romney erased any chance he may have had himself, years ago, when he signed a massive government entitlements program called RomneyCare into law, which became the model for ObamaCare.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:52 am
Cain and Gingrich should just mail it in. They are totally finished.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:53 am
Another look at Quinnipiac this morning:
Independents
Romney……46 %
Obama…….40 %
Obama…….42 %
Perry…….40 %
Obama…….47 %
Bachmann….36 %
Recognize ,as well, that this poll is at the near nadir of Obama’s numbers and near the zenith of the new candidate’s numbers, Perry
CraigS
August 31st, 2011 at 11:54 am
I foresee a lot of mailers, media pieces, commercials, etc. designed to educate America on Perry’s record on immigration, government spending, pay-for-play politics, etc. It will leave the tea party disgusted.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:54 am
governor gardasil = four more for bambi
August 31st, 2011 at 11:57 am
I am a tea party member, from the very beginning, and Perry’s record disgusts me. Whenever I talk to my relatives from out of state about Perry’s record, they drop their jaws in disbelief. It’s just that nobody knows the record yet. We need our candidates thoroughly vetted in the primaries because we don’t want the democrats to have surprises up their sleeves when the general campaign comes along. Last thing we need is to have Perry win the nomination and then everybody learn about his record through the democrats.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:58 am
I’ll go with the guy that has turned around a broken state, a broken Olympics, dozens of broken companies
August 31st, 2011 at 12:03 pm
41 — I really hope you are right.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:10 pm
Remember what it was that we hated McCain for in 08? His Amnesty support. Period
Rick Perry’s got that too…and Trans Corridor…and Open Borders…and Al Gore…and support for HillaryCare…and Gardisil mandate…and his big tax-paid mansion rental…and high spending…and big deficits…and Bilderberg…and corruption…and the Dream Act…and ACORN signature…and high unemployment…and 1.9 GPA..and no TX Health ins…and on…and on…and on…
August 31st, 2011 at 12:11 pm
45. It will come out because it’s the truth. The truth always comes out.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:12 pm
Oh! Emm! Jee!
The truth about Willard’s StaMoKap background is leaking out all over the place like water through a kitchen colander!
August 31st, 2011 at 12:14 pm
46
“Remember what it was that we hated McCain for in 08? His Amnesty support. Period.”
Think about that for a second. The Conservatives STILL rallied around Mitt Romney to try to beat John McCain back then. So how much greater need do we have to rally around Mitt if Perry supports Amnesty and MUCH, MUCH more?
August 31st, 2011 at 12:19 pm
This is historical revisionism that shades into fantasy. Conservatives never coalesced around McCain, but they didn’t hate him, and they certainly never “rallied” to Willard “RomneyCare, US$40bn promised bailout to U.S. auto-makers” Romney–but thank you for the belly-laugh!
August 31st, 2011 at 12:20 pm
MSNBC rebutts Perry’s rebuttal on HillaryCare:
Rick Perry knew darn well what he was endorsing in HillaryCare. He can’t run away from it.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:21 pm
48. Perry grew the government at a much higher rate in Texas than the federal government grew. While private sector jobs grew at around 10% under Perry’s watch, government jobs grew at over 18%. The final straw was Perry’s Gardasil mandate, another huge attack on limited government.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:22 pm
Why yes, in fact I do remember what the Rombats hated J-Mac for in ’08: for beating Mitt like a broken-down discarded timpani.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:23 pm
Who is we? You just hold your breath until conservatives “rally” around Willard “RomneyCare” Romney, the man who foisted a massive government entitlements program on the peoples of MA, which would later become the basis of ObamaCAre.
Perry governs a state with an international border.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:23 pm
casuist has no answer for #46, it’s not in the talking points he has.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:25 pm
54
“Perry governs a state with an international border.”
Yes he does, and one that he wants to desperately dissolve.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:26 pm
Yeah, that was stupid. But do you know what’s really stupid, actually developing and signing into law a massive new government entitlements program called “RomneyCare” in the post-Clinton era when we should all know better, a policy disaster that would become the basis of ObamaCare. Willard can’t run away from that, no way.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:27 pm
#54 -”Perry governs a state with an international border.”
That does what? make him a foreign policy expert?
The border you tout has the highest crime rate in the country, drugs, murder, kidnapping and more. Keep it up,as Perry slides down, down down….
August 31st, 2011 at 12:28 pm
MWAAAHAHAHA!! Haha! Heh. *sigh*
He can say he learned from ObamneyCare that HillCare was a disaster in the making. He can point out his capacity for learning from others’ mistakes — a capacity shared widely in the human race, but not by certain former governors of Massachusetts.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:29 pm
It’s a federal border, you super-genius.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:29 pm
# 52 – How about his Windmill mandate that has cost the state $7 Billion dollars. Not $7 Million – $7 Billion Dollars!
National Review had a nice article a few days ago about how the state of Texas has blown nearly $7 billion dollars on wind energy that is not producing much of any energy.
Did you know Texas has 3 times the number of windmills than any other state, thanks to Rick Perry’s mandates?
Link: http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/275673/texas-wind-energy-fails-again-robert-bryce?page=1
From NR “What about Rick Perry, a politico who frequently invokes his support for the free market? In 2005, he signed a mandate requiring the state to have at least 6,000 megawatts of renewable capacity by 2015. Perry’s support has been so strong that a wind-energy lobbyist recently told the New York Times that the governor, who’s now a leading contender for the White House, has “been a stalwart in defense of wind energy in this state, no question about it.”
Shades of his past love Al Gore?
August 31st, 2011 at 12:29 pm
Casuist, you should probably get back to class before the Principal gets mad.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:30 pm
it’s his State. moron
August 31st, 2011 at 12:33 pm
For all of the problems with Romneycare, a survey conducted last year by the Boston Globe, no friends of Romney, showed that 80% of Massachusetts residents were satisfied with their health care. Did you know that Texas has an auto insurance manadate?
August 31st, 2011 at 12:39 pm
Dumb idea. Perry fell for the national fad of the time, when practically every state in the union signed such stupid renewable mandates into law. Even GOP-shites in Congress and Dubya thought that this eco-freak-spawned idea was viable.
In fact, Massachusetts was a pioneer in these “renewable portfolio standards” all the way back in 1997, and Mitt appears not to have done anything against them.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:41 pm
It’s going to be a sad day when gov. gardasil loses to bambi.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:41 pm
Rush is saying that Obama is scared of Perry? Scared of Palin?
August 31st, 2011 at 12:41 pm
Hardly surprising, considering that the program is kept marginally viable thanks to enormous federal subsidies. This indicates that Mitt helped to make today’s MassHatts into happy recipients of welfare-state handouts.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:44 pm
He says they’re (the dems) not scared of Romney. That somehow Romney will be more accommodating to the mainstream media? This is too funny. I never thought that I would say this about Rush but he is tone deaf about this one. Just like he was tone deaf in 2008.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:45 pm
68 – I guarantee you that the money that Texas is taking from the federal government is a BILLION times bigger than what Mass takes.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Casuist (57):
You speak as if Romney contemplated the healthcare proposal out of thin blue sky, when in fact, the Democrats (who had a veto-proof majority that was used in many aspects of Romneycare) were planning on pursuing a more devastating form of healthcare reform.
This is the reason why you can’t aompare Governors like apples to apples. TPAW and Romney governed a state with a Democrat controlled legislature, while Perry and Huntsman governed two states with a super majority of Republicans and coservatives. Despite not having cvontrol of 2/3 of government, both TPAW and Romney were successful in achieving conservative results. Granted those results aren’t as significant as states where conservatives control 100% of state government.
FYI: There is a very strong chance that even if the GOP wins the Presidency, we won’t control 100% of the federal government. If that is true, Perry, if elected, would be an unknown commodity in trying to get stuff accomplished with s divided government. Please recall the last debate where Ron Paul was speechless when the moderator asked if he could get his plan through a divided government….and Ron Paul said NO reluctantly. Conservative principles do not help us if they are never implemented. Unfortunately, Huntsman (sorry MWS), if elected, would likely work more with the Democrat Senate, since he won’t be forced to sign conservative legislation as he did in Utah (I lived there at the time).
August 31st, 2011 at 12:49 pm
Marque (68):
You are wrong. The federal subsidies already existed, Romney simply put them to better use. Not sure if you are a Perry fan or not, but Perry did the same thing with the Federal Stimulus to ensure that his state wouldn’y be bankrupt until after the 2012 elections.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:49 pm
68 – MarqueG – every State gets “federal subsidies” even Texas, Alaska, MN and Penn. So all the candidates live in a state that accepts federal health subsidies.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:57 pm
72
Exactly. Romney is a master at taking a balance sheet with numbers wasted or in the red and putting it to good use. This was from his VFW speech yesterday:
This is a perfect example that Romney really GETS it. He GETS how to fix budgets, waste, and bloat. It takes more than a person committed to reduce a deficit, it takes someone who understands how to ensure money isn’t wasted on faulty programs.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Regarding RomneyCare:
1. According to FactCheck, MassCare is well within budget projections, and only takes up 1.2% of the state’s budget.
2. Massachusetts has the highest percentage of citizens with Medical Insurance in the nation.
3. Texas has the lowest, with almost 25% of its citizens lacking basic medical protection.
4. Romney’s measure was passed by a combined vote in the legislature of 198 to 2.
5. The few obnoxious provisions in it either passed over Mitt’s vetoes, or were dictated by judicial fiat.
In the general election campaign against Obama, it will be seen as a plus.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:05 pm
Ya’ll are neglecting to recognize RomneyCare for the bureaucratic fiasco and fiscal disaster that it is.
Maybe you could call this a conservative reform if you lived in North Korea…
August 31st, 2011 at 1:08 pm
governor gardasil tried to ram gardasil shots down the throat of twelve year old girls just like bambi rammed obamacare down our throats. It will be a sad day when 1.9 loses to bambi.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:20 pm
Perry 24 and Romney 18?
Perry’s had zero vetting, zero debates, zero real interviews and this is the best he can do? With the sort of jump-start the others could only dream of, he should be doing far better right now, e.g. at least in the 40s.
He’s the frontrunner all right. But a weak one.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:22 pm
“Send in the clowns — there must be clowns!”
That is funny coming from you Craig Perry Bachmann.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:23 pm
“2. Massachusetts has the highest percentage of citizens with Medical Insurance in the nation.” Irelivant. Can I give me governor a hero buscuit if it is found out that my state has the most indoor water-parks per capita?
August 31st, 2011 at 1:25 pm
“He’s the frontrunner all right. But a weak one.” Well, if you look at all the polling companies, he has about 38% of the delegates. I do not think that Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Romney ever exceeded that (though they may have tied it.)
August 31st, 2011 at 1:46 pm
Hamaca:“Perry’s had zero vetting, zero debates, zero real interviews and this is the best he can do?”
No, it’s not the best he can do. This is actually the closest Romney has come in the past several polls — Perry’s been up by double digits in the others recently — so it’s the worst he can do.
August 31st, 2011 at 2:06 pm
82. I was referring to this particular poll, not the others. Given his amazing head start, Perry should be doing better even in this poll. Is this one an outlier?
August 31st, 2011 at 2:06 pm
Bob,
Good catch.
August 31st, 2011 at 2:22 pm
Hamaca: “Is this one an outlier?”
Probably not. Check the last five polls at RCP (all those done since 8/15). Perry has had 29-27-25-27-24. Romney has had 18-17-14-14-18.
That’s a pretty tight range for both of them (4-5 points). This one just happens to be at the top of Romney’s range and the bottom of Perry’s. The mid-points, though, are about 26 for Perry and 16 for Romney.
August 31st, 2011 at 2:40 pm
10 is about right and it either solidifies at 10, goes to 15, or drops to 5 by the end of September, imo.
Romney has to pray for the -5.
Because once Perry reaches the high teens cosistently in October, it’s all over but the whining.
August 31st, 2011 at 2:41 pm
*a high teens LEAD consistenly — that is.
August 31st, 2011 at 3:36 pm
That’s the biggest sample and lowest MOE we have seen. Perry slightly ahead, which seems about right given the refusal of the media to vet him.
August 31st, 2011 at 3:50 pm
Bob Hovic, are you falling for the Perry fraud too? I guess I shouldn’t be too surprised given your hate of Romney.
August 31st, 2011 at 3:50 pm
I just thought you were smarter than that.
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