While many in the Race community may not hold David Frum in high regard, yesterday he penned an eye-opening analysis of the emerging Romney vs. Perry dogfight for the Republican nomination:
When choosing a candidate for president, it’s important not to lose sight of the “for president” part. American history is replete with examples of very attractive candidates who did not cut the mustard in the office. Isn’t that the fundamental Republican critique of Barack Obama? Great candidate, bad executive.
…If you were running a competence primary today, how would you rate Rick Perry as a candidate? Some might say: he must be good, look at all those jobs they are creating in Texas. They were creating a lot of jobs in Texas in 1998 too – yet George W. Bush still managed to disappoint as a national leader.
The question you want to ask is: how does the candidate manage?
Does he absorb and process information intelligently? Does he have a good sense for distinguishing truth from flim-flam? Does he surround himself with capable people? Does he demand results and enforce accountability? How does he react to (inevitable) failures?
By these criteria, Romney shows the makings of a successful president. Rick Perry – not so much.
Frum makes some excellent points here. We Republicans often lament that the American public (especially young voters) will never view us as “the cool, hip party”, and I would largely agree, as perceptions of “coolness” often coincide with social/moral permissiveness and adherence to societal trends, both of which fundamentally clash with conservatism on some level or another.
With that in mind, what “competitive advantage” (to use a well-known business term) can the GOP hope to establish? I would argue that ideology alone simply won’t cut it. If it did, we would see more empirical support for the theory espoused by the talk radio crowd – that if Republicans just articulate conservative principles clearly enough, they’ll win over enough of the public to dominate elections and policy debates. In reality, the Republicans who rely almost exclusively on ideological purity (see: Angle, Sharron, and O’Donnell, Christine) often lose out to those who apply conservative principles to the issues of the day with credible, persuasive campaign platforms (see: McDonnell, Bob, Rubio, Marco, et al.). In short, most voters don’t so much care exactly how conservative or liberal candidates are; they care about how the candidates will address the issues affecting them.
I’ll also offer another hypothesis: that Republicans need to regain the competency advantage they previously held. Historically, voters trusted the GOP to govern more effectively and efficiently than Democrats. The high-profile struggles of the Bush administration – namely, Iraq and Katrina – erased that advantage and actually flipped it to the Dems, as many have attributed the economic growth and historically aberrant lack of military conflict of the Clinton years to the 42nd President’s skill in office.
In sum, barring some unforeseen upheavals in the American political landscape, the Democratic Party will always attract voters most concerned with idealistic crusades for environmentalism, absolute social equality, and a pacifistic foreign policy. To combat that, the GOP must win back the individuals more attuned to the less romantic but at least as essential realities of governing, managing tradeoffs, and steering the ship of state. In a Romney vs. Perry matchup under these terms, Mitt would almost certainly come out ahead. However, time will tell if enough of the Republican electorate views the future of the party in this light. As of now, it appears unlikely.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:10 pm
I agree with your main points. I just wish that competency could be a more attractive quote to the general public.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:11 pm
Anthony,
Great post.
Keep thinking like this, and you’ll be endorsing Huntsman soon.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:16 pm
You want competence?
Here is the competent one.
Going to be a busy weekend.
http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/tir-exclusive-palin-to-fly-to-new-hampshire-following-iowa-appearance/
August 30th, 2011 at 10:18 pm
The answer to this is that results are going to matter.
Unemployment is 9.2 percent. We’re adding a pitful few thousand jobs a month, not nearly enough to keep up with population expansion. Gas costs $4 a gallon in what is nearly a recession.
Whether Perry or Romney win the nomination what’s going to matter is what the economic state looks 2 or 3 years from now. The public will render a judgment then, just as they are poised to do in this coming election on the Obama administration.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:22 pm
But as to the question of “competency and ideology”…
Didn’t Dukakis make that his pitch before he went on to lose 40 states?
August 30th, 2011 at 10:23 pm
Frum has it absolutely right. Americans have lost sight of what it is we are charged with. We are picking the man or woman who will manage the largest enterprise on the face of the earth.
It isn’t a job for ordinary men. It’s a job for extraordinary men. Yet, voters want to dumb the process down to who they like the best, who they can relate to, or whose personal characteristics are most like their own. Then they wonder why we don’t have strong leadership. They’ve selected someone like themselves instead of someone a cut above who is prepared for the role.
If Americans would seriously review the resume’ of all those running, Romney wins hands down.
Trouble is, too many people vote based on emotion and feelings rather than logic and reason.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:24 pm
Then maybe we should lament Facebook wars and debates on Twitter.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:28 pm
I would argue that ideology alone simply won’t cut it. If it did, we would see more empirical support for the theory espoused by the talk radio crowd – that if Republicans just articulate conservative principles clearly enough, they’ll win over enough of the public to dominate elections and policy debates. In reality, the Republicans who rely almost exclusively on ideological purity (see: Angle, Sharron, and O’Donnell, Christine) often lose out to those who apply conservative principles to the issues of the day with credible, persuasive campaign platforms (see: McDonnell, Bob, Rubio, Marco, et al.). In short, most voters don’t so much care exactly how conservative or liberal candidates are; they care about how the candidates will address the issues affecting them.
Yes, yes, yes. I couldn’t have said it better myself. And the thing is, your thesis here ought to be a no-brainer. And it is a no-brainer most of the time in politics, with the exception of two specific periods in recent American history. The first time was during the 1970s and 1980s, when Democrats decided that the most important, and perhaps only important quality in a candidate for public office was being liberal. I keep reminding people how there was actually a time just over two decades ago when serious political commentators thought Jesse Jackson would be able to win a presidential election. That seems insane today.
I would argue that from around 2005 on, the Republican Party has been dogged by the same type of irrational thinking. The penchant for the Angles and the O’Donnells is nothing like the movement towards Goldwater and Reagan, because the latter were all about ideas, whereas the former, like Jackson and McGovern, are all about identity and about pure ideology. We’ve seen how that story ends.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:30 pm
Sojo,
“But as to the question of “competency and ideology”…
Didn’t Dukakis make that his pitch before he went on to lose 40 states?”
Dukakis won a Democratic primary against some who waged ideological campaigns, and he lost in the general election to the modern day archetype of competence over ideology.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:30 pm
Perry became a millionaire on a $45k salary as a politician. He dumps all his e-mails once a week to keep from scrutiny. He hates many amendments to the Constitution and Social Security and the Supreme Court and Medicare. He has copied Rod Blagoyevich in the way he rewards donors.
Competent? Man, I can’t even get that far in my evaluation of him.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:34 pm
So Frum likes Mitt over Rick…hhuuummm.
Another bad week for Mitt.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:34 pm
But from Dukakis’ vantage point he was the “competent” one. Right?
So I guess the degree of ideology as a pejorative is in the eye of the beholder.
That being the case, Frum’s protestations are far from surprising.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:35 pm
A whole bunch of Texans became millionaires through real estate. It’s very sad.
Wait, wait, wait. Aren’t we Republicans?
August 30th, 2011 at 10:36 pm
Who did Frum back in 2008 primary?
August 30th, 2011 at 10:36 pm
..or endorse?
August 30th, 2011 at 10:37 pm
13 – Silly Craig.
Only when Prince MITT makes multiple millions is it a good thing in the eyes of the Rombots.
By gum, that’s the very definition of the American success story.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:37 pm
America is at heart, a conservative country, meaning that most people just want things to work, be predictable, and live in a country that was as good as it was when they were a kid. People don’t want to risk their future on the theories of Jesse Jackson OR Rush Limbaugh. That’s why so many naturally and temperamentally conservative people are turned off by the likes of Perry and Bachmann- they want to create a world that has never existed.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:37 pm
Rick Perry is the perfect candidate for today’s Republican Party. Strong on theoretical conservatism, weak on practicality.
Take the governors stand on promoting a strong business climate: The governor says all the right things about creating jobs, has lowered taxes and has loosened regulations in the state. But on the other hand, he has created public private partnerships that choose winners and losers in the state, akin to the crony capitalism and green initiatives that have occurred in Washington as a result of being too close to business interests.
Second, Gov. Perry says things conservatives agree with on social security being a ponzi scheme, the income tax being a terrible idea, etc. But in reality, Gov. Perry would replace these programs with what? Absolutely nothing.
I have strong concerns about Gov. Perry’s ability or proclivity to study whether programs “work” or not. The state’s new business tax has been hemorraging money for years to the tune of $10 billion bi-annual structural deficit. Rather than work on ways to bridge the shortfall through closing loopholes or revising the business tax, Perry has dumped the majority of the budget deficit on education spending, forcing school districts to layoff thousands of teachers. In my own school district, parents are forced to pay up to $400 per child to send their children to school on the school bus, and we live in a very middle class school district. I wonder if Gov. Perry thought through the ramifications on families and schools when he created this business tax and whether he plans on spending much time reviewing why the tax is not delivering the revenues predicted.
Governor Perry does disagree with conservatives on some issues. Governor Perry wants to open the border with Mexico. He arranged for children of illegal immigrants to have college tuition at subsidized resident rates. If you are the rare conservative who thinks amnesty would be a great deal, Governor Perry is your guy.
If you really want a theoretical conservative Presidency, vote for Ron Paul. He will actually try to deliver on his promises.
As for whether Romney does a better job on reviewing results, I would argue that he does. The health care plan that is so vilified was only passed after much time reviewing data and discussing the plan with experts. Unfortunately, Gov. Romney has not had an opportunity as governor to review what worked and what didn’t work, but his business background suggests that he would.
The biggest difference between Romney and Perry is in how they would follow through on their agenda. Romney followed through on all of his campaign promises and approaches all issues from a non-ideological and objective prism. Governor Perry appears to make promises of an ideological nature, but then not follow through with their implementation, or not be concerned with the negative outcoumes of an ideological decision.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:38 pm
11.Smack1968 Says:
August 30th, 2011 at 10:34 pm
“So Frum likes Mitt over Rick…hhuuummm.
Another bad week for Mitt.”
====
Bingo! (Nice to see ya!)
August 30th, 2011 at 10:38 pm
I’ll re-post my rant from earlier today since it seems quite apropo here:
I challenge all voters in America, to pretend they are on the hiring committee to pick a new CEO for America.
First off, decide what skills you’d be looking for, what experience would be relevant, and what education would be a requirement.
Keep in mind that the selected candidate will be running the largest and most important organization in the free world and nearly every person on earth will be affected by the job they do.
Picking a President is serious business and we shouldn’t base our decision on feelings or trivial concerns.
In picking the best CEO for America, it matters not whether they are from Texas or New England or whether their Sunday mornings are spent inside a Methodist Church or a Mormon Church. If their feet are shod with cowboy boots or Ferragamo loafers should matter to no one. If we were picking a CEO for any organization, those questions would never even be entertained. We’d only be looking for evidence of competence and considering whether they could do the job. Whether we’d feel comfortable having a beer with someone? Honestly, including that in the mix of considerations is wholly reckless.
America is in trouble. Tremendous challenges lie ahead for us. The founding fathers entrusted this great land to the collective wisdom of her people. They placed the reins in our hands and believed we would take stewardship of the country seriously. We must prove to them we are worthy of their trust.
I don’t believe for one second that the voters considered any of the above in 2008. They treated Obama like a contestant on American Idol. There was nothing in his resume’ to suggest he was qualified for the job he sought but because Americans became enraptured in his words and moved by the narrative of his ‘improbable journey’ through life they selected him for the most important position in the world. His selection has proved to be a colossal mistake. I’m certain our founders would be stunned by the lack of serious thought we applied to our decision.
Much consideration is being given to attributes of candidates that truly don’t matter but ultimately we must go beyond those considerations. For there were brave men with names like Jefferson, Adams, and Franklin that risked it all to give us this land and all that it represents. They believed in the notion of self-governance.
We must exercise great care in picking the next man or woman to lead us. I think our very existence depends on whether we pick another likable person whose story appeals to us or we pick a competent, qualified person with the skill to lead us through these perilous times.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:38 pm
Sojo,
“But from Dukakis’ vantage point he was the “competent” one. Right?”
I suppose. But he was running against the Vice President, former head of CIA, former ambassador to the UN, former Congressman, etc.. etc…….
August 30th, 2011 at 10:40 pm
What does Perry want to drastically change about the world?
What as he drastically done to change Texas?
And the social security bogeyman is no more than typical Republican boilerplate that we’ve heard for years. Reagan wanted to dismantle the Department of Education. He won in a landslide.
What radical changes will Perry undertake as president?
August 30th, 2011 at 10:41 pm
17.
Matt,
Obamneycare’s architect wants you to forget about all that.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:43 pm
Exactly. You want to talk “radical”. Mitt’s mandate was far more radical than anything Perry proposed in his decade-long tenure.
So he’s temperamentally less of a female body part than Romney.
So what?
August 30th, 2011 at 10:43 pm
20.
You were talking about us supporting Godfather’s Herman Cain, right? A CEO and non politician.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:45 pm
Sojo,
“What does Perry want to drastically change about the world?”
He says Social Security is unconstitutional. No self respecting confederate would abide anything unconstitutional.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:47 pm
13. You can’t be a true conservative if morally you’ve lost your sense of smell.
How many of those Texans were earning $45k a year as a politician, making land deals with lobbyists?
How many of those guys do you admire?
August 30th, 2011 at 10:48 pm
26 – It’s just rhetoric. One thing I’ve learned from Mitt Romney is to pay attention not to what politicians say, but to what they DO.
You honestly think Perry is going to dismantle social security?
August 30th, 2011 at 10:50 pm
Watch,
I’ve always said that I would support any non-pro-choice Republican nominee over Obama. But if these ethical charges against Rick have the merit they appear to on the surface, I’ll have some real soul searching to do. The question, I suppose, is how much damage can a corrupt President do to his country, party, and “cause”?
August 30th, 2011 at 10:50 pm
Barack Obama? Great candidate, bad executive
Mitt Romney? Not so great candidate, outstanding executive
If I were voting for the “candidate” who is best at connecting with crowds and enthusing people, I sure wouldn’t pick Romney. I don’t think he’s a particularly good politician but he’s been an outstanding executive which suggests he’d be an outstanding President.
I’m more concerned with how one would execute the job of President than how good they are at the performing the circus act it requires to get that job.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:51 pm
Sojo,
“You honestly think Perry is going to dismantle social security?”
No. I think he’s a panderer, who was pandering to the Tea Party.
I don’t trust panderers.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:52 pm
I don’t either. It’s politics though. So it’s all about varying degrees of pandering.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:53 pm
There are two separate questions here. First, which candidate or candidates look like they might actually govern competently? It’s there where Frum is skeptical of Perry and (relatively) confident about Romney. Second, is likely competence actually a serious factor in this (or in any) election? It could be that voters don’t care about, or don’t recognize, likely competence, but that they ought to (results matter, after all). I think competence is probably amorphous enough not to matter in this sort of election. On the electability front, anyway. I think the best arguments for Romney over Perry on the competence front- academic success, seeming knowledge of the issues- are negated by the “we don’t need any stinkin east coast intellectuals who don’t know nutin’ bout the real world” factor. I think stick your fingers in your ears anti-elitism is a lot easier to maintain when the other party’s nominee is at 39% in the polls and is likely to catch the majority of the blame for a lousy economy. I think at least a few of the people who now claim to believe that Perry would be at least as competent as Romney, in spite of his academic disasters and seemingly muddled thinking, would change their tune if suddenly Obama was polling at 55%. People can convince themselves of a lot, for the sake of ideology, when they have some wiggle room.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:54 pm
Great post Anthony. Whenever the competency question is raised I go back to Bob McDonnell, who ran an absolutely masterful race in Virginia. He staked out being the “Jobs Candidate” early and often and neatly combined it with discussing the issue of transportation which is big in Virginia, particularly the Northern part of the state. When his opponent Creigh Deeds went after him about the thesis issue, it failed to stick miserably, because McDonnell had not only framed the debate, but was clearly much more in step with what the people of Virginia wanted to see in their governor.
McDonnell’s great campaign is absolutely what we need to look at come 2012. He laid out a blueprint of how to appeal to a majority of voters in a purple state; exactly what we need if we want to win.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:56 pm
Whether you like Frum or not……..his point is a good one and well stated. It just so happens that Romney comes out on top on that subject!
August 30th, 2011 at 10:57 pm
Texans have had 10 years to analyze Gov. Perry’s results. As a result, Perry’s favorables are 42/50, a net negative rating in a very red state. Compare to Gov. Johnson of New Mexico, who is +15. The Texans I know are tired of having to choose between the lesser of two evils.
And if Perry won’t follow through on the ideas in his book, what’s the point? If he’s “fed up” and still won’t do anything about it but reward the moneyed interests, what’s the appeal? Is really all that “fed up”?
Is anything ever going to change in this country?
August 30th, 2011 at 10:59 pm
Jonathan,
I think you’re spot on about McDonnell. ThesisGate probably won him some votes in the rural parts and old country. But his fixation on jobs and “what matters” held the ‘burbs, and actually isolated his opponent, who wanted to discuss sociology instead of what voters were thinking about.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:01 pm
asparagus,
Perry isn’t “fed up.” Politics as usual has been quite good to him. We know these sorts in Illinois.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:03 pm
#25,
If that’s who you think is best qualified then, yes.
I’m not as concerned about who one decides is best for the job as long as the right analysis is used in arriving at the conclusion.
What concerns me is when people vote for Palin because they are female and she is female or for Barack because they are African American and he is African American. None of that should matter. One should look at what is required to do the job then pick the person best qualified. In any other hiring decision, that is how it is approached but with the most important hiring decision in the World, we apply a different and much less stringent standard.
There are a number of people running (including our current President) that are frankly not qualified yet we don’t reject them because of identity politics. That’s a tragedy because we ought to be able to see that picking a President based on personality can yield disasterous results.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:04 pm
I’d also say that, while we have good evidence about how McDonnell would govern (and thus he’s a good example), Rubio’s still closer to the Obama category. He ran a flawless campaign (as good as any I can think of, at any level) but has, as of yet, given us little clue about his ability to govern. He has the advantage on Obama in that he actually held a major leadership position for a few years, but I don’t think there’s a huge reason to suppose, so far, that from a competence standpoint Rubio would be much better than Obama.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:04 pm
#34:
Good point Matthew, as usual. If you look at 2008, Democrats pretty much felt that they were going to win especially with Bush being so unpopular. So, they went with their heart and picked Obama. If the 08 election looked like it could be a tough one that they might’ve lost, they would’ve gone with Hillary.
Of course, lots of Republicans are deluding themselves if they think that Obama will be easy to beat; he won’t. And the sooner people in the GOP wake up to realize that, the better.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:07 pm
Matt:
McDonnell was also smart in that he didn’t deny or repudiate the thesis (at least not that I can remember), he just said that it was irrelevant to what Virginia’s were looking for in their Governor and he’ rather talk about jobs and transportation. That was a brilliant strategy; if you’re explaining you’re losing in politics and McDonnell just essentially ignored the issue because he and his campaign knew that Virginians just didn’t care about that.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:10 pm
We Rombots have been saying all along that Romney would make an excellent President but is only a so-so candidate.
Point in fact, it is Romney’s executive skills in building his campaign organization and selecting people that have kept him viable all this time.
But if the GOP wants to nominate a “Buddy-in-Chief” in Perry, then we deserve what we get, Perry or Obama, and I will about give up on hoping America will elect any more competent presidents…
August 30th, 2011 at 11:12 pm
McDonnell wrote the thesis while at Regent University, which is located in Virginia Beach and only about 5 miles from my current house. The local paper here dedicated a good two weeks to coverage of the thesis. McDonnell stated that he wrote it in 1989, and he was now focused on 2009…and that was about the end of it. He really did run a great campaign. It is also helpful to remember that McDonnell only beat Deeds by only 330 votes out of nearly 2 million cast in 2005 when they were both running for Attorney General. So, the fact that he beat Deeds by nearly 20 points 4 years later should demonstrate how effectively his gubernatorial campaign was run.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:14 pm
#44:
Good to see you back Shane. Hope Irene didn’t pack too much of a punch for you all in the Old Dominion.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:14 pm
Jonathan,
McDonnell’s victory was impressive but I’d still point to Rubio’s as the ideal model- but hey, a little embarrassment of riches never hurt. Forget about the astonishing feat of boxing out the talented Charlie Crist on the right, and winning 87% of the Republican vote- he actually managed to win a majority of independents and a normal percentage of Democrats, without either of his opponents collapsing. Compare to Rick Perry’s relatively anemic ’06 showing, where he lost a quarter of Republicans and 75% of Independents, against a field of nobodies in a deep-red state.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:20 pm
#46:
Rubio had two things that pretty much every winning candidate has: luck and hard-work. When Crist was a million points ahead even in the Republican primary, he acted like he was pretty much assured the nomination. Rubio by contrast just plain outworked the Governor. He (Rubio) went to every little county Republican meeting and women’s club and his masterful communication skills just wowed them. He turned pretty much every room he went to into a room of supporters and these were the foundations of his campaign. By the time Crist got around to actually campaigning, Rubio had already beaten him everywhere.
Rubio was also lucky that Kendrick Meek was the Democratic nominee. Meek had been the choice of the Florida Democratic Party and when he edged out Jeff Greene, Democrats had too much invested in him to just abandon him and go to Crist. Crist’s only hope was to become the defacto Democratic nominee and still stay as an independent. When that failed, Rubio was home free.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:20 pm
#45 – Jonathan,
Danke. We fared pretty well here, thankfully. Oddly enough, we lost power for about 5 hours the day AFTER Irene hit, while it was perfectly sunny and 80 degrees outside. I guess they must have cut the whole grid due to an overload elsewhere (or something like that – I’m certainly no electrician).
Overall, I agree with you, both Matt’s, and a few others on the board regarding competence and capability. I’m still favoring Huntsman, but if he leaves the race without the nomination, I am not sure how fervently I could support Perry. At this point, I’d still vote for him, but I probably wouldn’t be going door-to-door and making phone calls.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:21 pm
Looking at their records and what they have accomplished in office, as well as their personality and ideological make up, I can come to no other conclusion than it is Governor SarahPalin who is by far the most qualified and competent executive administrator we could get to run this country.
A fair an honest appraisal shows she has actually cut the budgets and made the entitlement reforms that our country needs, incentivising capital investment and the development of natural resources through free market principles that leads to private sector job creation.
No one has a record of accomplishment to match her transformational tenure in Alaska.
It is a shame more people don’t know about it. That is changing though.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:22 pm
43. I’ll second that. There were a goodly number of competent and viable potential candidates for our Party this cycle, and even though I’m a omey fan, I liked T-Paw, Thune, and Daniels, and Barbour as well . . . he’s done a great job managing his state as near as I can tell. I’d have been pretty satisfied with any of them.
Rick Perry seems to me to be a strange blend of Huckabee, Blagoyevich, and Bush. Why are these hotcakes selling? Republicans in the South are once again desparate for a regional champion, and those who love Huck see Huck in Perry, those who love Bush see Bush, and everyone is ignoring the Blagoyevich side of this guy. If that holds, I’ll be very disappointed in my Party.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:22 pm
Here is exhibit A of how Governor Perry is “uninterested” or “unconcerned” about results. The interviewer is asking Gov. Perry about whether abstinence education “works” when Texas has the 3rd highest teenage pregnancy rate. Gov. Perry struggles to answer why the program works in spite of statistics that show it doesn’t work. Also Gov. Perry seems to think 5% results is good enough. Aren’t we getting at least 5% results from Obama? Is it too much to ask for 10-15% results?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngiJhmoFKkw
August 30th, 2011 at 11:23 pm
#46 Matthew E Miller,
Excellent analysis.
Have you read Nate Silver’s piece on Perry’s electability from a couple of weeks ago? He articulates the case that although Perry has “never lost a race” his performance is not as strong as perhaps it should be given the make-up of the Texas electorate.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/17/pondering-perrys-electability/
August 30th, 2011 at 11:25 pm
Sarah Palin, the Perry destroyer.
She is coming.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:27 pm
3. Funny how she tried to follow Romney around, like she wants to be him?
August 30th, 2011 at 11:29 pm
Frum is not a good reference. I think if we followed his views, the House would still be Democrat controlled.
Romney is a weasel/jellyfish. Three opinions on abortion. I only accept two. I do not care which way(Giuliani). Then on issues like the enviornment, he does not know what he thinks.
As far as Perry, I tenatively lean towards him. I am willing to review his negatives as they arise.
I am no right wing nut. After supporting Goldwater in 1964, I have supported Nixon in 68, Ford in 76, Bush in 80 until Reagan beat him up with a microphone, Bush in 1988, Alexander in 96, Bush in 00 and McCain in 08 after Florida.
Actually, the most important attribute of a candidate is likeability. If you look at most of the winners of the Presidency, they have been the most likeable.
Actually the best candidate would be Giuliani. He is competent and likeable as a politician (though he had some spouse problems)
For you moderates as far as I am concerned Huntsman can dive into anempty pool.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:30 pm
Regarding the title of this thread.
Competence.
Being a 10 1/2 year governor with the top jobs record in America goes a long long way down the road to the White House in the public’s eye. If Palin or Romney had that, they too would be admired, trusted, and unstoppable as our most competent candidate.
Romney comes a lot closer than Palin though because most admire how he hung in there for one full term despite his growing unpopularity. Palin, on the other hand, merely bailed out halfway through. How competent is that when the going got tough?
August 30th, 2011 at 11:33 pm
This video about the Trans Texas Corridor made me bust my gut. Its a Carole Keetan Strayhorn ad in cartoon form showing how Rick Perry tried to do an end around to get this monstrosity passed. Its a must see.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSIZ2-1kLnY
August 30th, 2011 at 11:34 pm
29. Maybe I’m totally built of crackers, but isn’t it really poor moral form for politicians to profit so egregiously from land deals with lobbyists? Gosh it seems like yesterday we raked the Clintons over the coals and had a special prosecutor and everything for land deals they made that seemed somewhat shady. And then there’s the Blagoyevich-like pay to play behavior. How is it Perry isn’t in trouble there? Are the laws in Texas so lax? No federales? No regulations on politicians behavior? Dumping the e-mails to avoid scrutiny every week. This isn’t a pattern of corruption, it’s a full-scale template.
Can we establish a certain degree of due diligence with this guy before we anoint him our leader?
August 30th, 2011 at 11:35 pm
56 Ted Kennedy was a senator for a long time, too. Was he competent as well? Its sad how you’ve thrown Michelle Bachmann under the bus the trash-talkin’ Texan.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:36 pm
Jonathan,
The Florida race was odd, there’s no question about that. And Rubio had a lot of what passes for luck. If Meek had dropped out, say, a month before election day, Rubio might have lost. But we have to look at all results in context. Rubio didn’t just win a 3-way race and he didn’t just win a 3-way race which, had things gone differently, might have been a two-way race. He won a 3-way race which might have been a 2-way race, with nearly 50% of the vote, when one of his competitors was an incumbent Governor of his own party who had 70% approval ratings a year earlier and still was at 50% on election day. Median-voter theory not only doesn’t expect a result like this, it’s at a loss to explain it. Charlie Crist was undoubtedly the closest, ideologically, to the center of the Florida electorate. If you kind of Venn diagrammed the candidates and the electorate, Crist’s bubble would certainly have caught the most voters. Yet he lost and badly and there’s no guarantee that even Meek’s exit would have delivered him the victory (surely SOME Crist voters preferred to elect a Republican but, with Meek in the race, were unconvinced that Crist was a de facto Democrat).
August 30th, 2011 at 11:39 pm
51 asparagus,
I could have answered the question far better than Perry. He is going to have to improve significantly if he is planning to go up against Team Obama and his minions in the national media.
Has Perry done a single major interview since announcing?
August 30th, 2011 at 11:42 pm
26.
Matt,
He denies saying that. So the question is — do you have a link where he says that?
August 30th, 2011 at 11:44 pm
Ci2Eye,
Not only have I read it, but I’ve noted it here myself. It is no very interesting thing that Perry has won all of his elections in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide in over a decade (’96, if I recall). Chuck Schumer’s never lost an election. Charlie Rangel’s never lost an election. This is news, given the composition of their electorates? This is a good reason to think they’d make fantastic national candidates?
August 30th, 2011 at 11:45 pm
Aspa,
Was Ted Kennedy a 10 1/2 year governor who had the top jobs record in America?
August 30th, 2011 at 11:45 pm
#60:
The problem with Crist was not that he was moderate; it was that he was a pure panderer and Floridians knew it. Republicans started disliking him after he opportunistically endorsed John McCain and shamelessly promoted himself for the number 2 slot on the ticket. Then, he had his man-hug with the President and supported the stimulus. After that was his veto of an education reform bill in a blatant attempt to get the teacher’s unions to support his candidacy.
It wasn’t so much that voters personally disliked Crist; many thought he was a charming guy. Everyone just knew he’d screw his own mother to get ahead.
As for Meek, his vote had essentially collapsed by the end of the campaign to the point where he got pretty much just the most die-hard Democrats out there.
Also, just for some statistical fun, Rubio got 48.89% of the vote. At the same time, Rick Scott, who won by 60,000 votes, got 48.87% of the vote. Essentially, Rubio and Scott performed exactly the same in the race, yet Rubio won by a landslide. Not to take anything away from Rubio, he ran a great race, but in a two-way race against a strong Democrat, he might’ve barely won if he won at all.
Alright enough fun, I’m off to bed.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:48 pm
58,
Some folks like TEX & the C4P’ers don’t like how Romney made his hundreds of millions either.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:50 pm
64 Do you agree with Gov. Perry’s initiative to take taxpayer money and fund startup technology companies? Do you support this on the state or Federal level?
August 30th, 2011 at 11:51 pm
If there’s anything we owe the American People, it’s competence. The American People can’t select a competent chief executive to save the country from imminent impoverishment if we don’t present them with one.
Perry is qualified, but his track record doesn’t inspire confidence. His championing of wind energy farms phenomenally far from the urban areas where the little power they produce is needed is a case study in mismanagement. He spent $7 Billion of taxpayer money on transmission lines to get power to cities from wind farms, which, in the middle of summer, don’t produce much energy at all. In the midst of super hot weather, the wind doesn’t blow much.
Texas has had more than 70 days with temperatures above 100 degrees, and demand for energy, to be used for air conditioning, is off the charts. Had Perry spent more money on natural gas electricity infrastructure, this would not be a problem. As it is, Texas is paying a fortune to meet their peak demand needs, and all this expense is passed on to the consumers.
Romney is a big fan of fracking and converting to natural gas power plants. He would have saved the good citizens of Texas Billions of Bucks that Rick has cost them.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:51 pm
T don’t care if Romney gutted American companies, fired the workers, and shipped their jobs overseas. But that’s me, not sure how the voters will feel.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:52 pm
T = *I
August 30th, 2011 at 11:54 pm
67.
Don’t care. Jobs are jobs. America needs every one they can get asap.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:55 pm
62. Here’s the quote from hs book “Fed Up”
“He suggested the program’s creation violated the Constitution. The program was put in place, “at the expense of respect for the Constitution and limited government,” he wrote, comparing the program to a “bad disease” that has continued to spread.”
I’m not seeing much difference between “at the expense of respect for the Constitution and limited government.”, and unConstitutional,but I’ll grant that he can rightfully claim he didn’t say it was UnConstitutional.
The man is sloppy.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:02 am
Craig,
http://readersupportednews.org/off-site-opinion-section/72-72/7009-rick-perry-social-security-and-medicare-are-unconstitutional
August 31st, 2011 at 12:02 am
Ian Lazaran:
“High level Iowa Republicans tell TheIowaRepublican.com that Sarah Palin will fly to New Hampshire following her September 3rd appearance in central Iowa”.
=================================
But,but,but…..she’s not running,she will not run,according to PDS suffering degenerates,Libs,corrupt and frightened GOP Quislings and
the rest of Palin haters.
Why would she deliver major speech in Iowa(of all places) and then fly
to N. Hampshire?!
Makes no sense!
Does it?!
What do you think?!
August 31st, 2011 at 12:06 am
@shushwalshe Shushannah Walshe
SarahPAC confirms that Palin will speak at the Tea Party Express event in NH on Labor Day.
…………………….
The morons must be right!
Sarah Palin is not running!
August 31st, 2011 at 12:07 am
I wonder if Ricky P is root’n and toot’n enough to explain to the good people of the Sovereign State of Florida that Social Security is a “disease.”
August 31st, 2011 at 12:09 am
66. Yeah, but what about you? Your cut and paste blitzkrieg style drives me crazy sometimes, but I’ve seen your wit and liked some things you’ve said along the way. I don’t often agree with you, but it pains me when you seem unable to step outside the promoter role you’ve assigned yourself here and gloss over glaringly obvious and troubling issues trying to make the sale.
In my opinion a good conservative starts out skeptical and gets to cynical really quick when it comes to politicians, let alone profiteering public praying politicians.
The harder you try to make the sale, the wider the gap in credibility and any credible claim of conservatism.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:09 am
TEX,
“But,but,but…..she’s not running,she will not run,according to PDS suffering degenerates,Libs,corrupt and frightened GOP Quislings and
the rest of Palin haters.”
You left out the beard scratchers.
And Sarah has centered her tease in New Hampshire and Iowa for years now. It doesn’t mean she’s running, it means she gets more attention and influence than if she’s appearing in Billings or Tulsa.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:10 am
72.
Oh, so he never said it. Wow!
MSNBC has been going on and on that he said it. I’ll have send Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow an email.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:11 am
A huge ditto to all of Watch’s sentiments in #77.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:13 am
PPP’s blog.. I voted for Florida, of course
August 31st, 2011 at 12:16 am
77,
See 69.
I anticipated your question — ain’t hard to do.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:18 am
Craig,
I think you completely missed, or ignored, the larger point of 77.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:20 am
77.
Ok, I’ll bite. Give me five things that “bother” you about your man, Mitt. Or make you sceptical of his competence.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:23 am
13. Mitt made his money in the private sector before running for Governor. Apparently Rick was involved in his profitable real estate business while on the taxpayer payroll.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:24 am
Matt,
You can give me Huntsmans 5 big negatives,too – in your opinion.
I give mine about Bachmann, Huck, and Perry on the next poll thread because it’s gonna be hard to find 15 huge faults. But I will if you two go first with Romney and his twin, Huntsman.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:24 am
*I’ll
August 31st, 2011 at 12:27 am
I’ll check back in the morn to see what y’all come up with
August 31st, 2011 at 12:29 am
Good luck with your lists.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:30 am
hamaca,
It wasn’t just “making money” while gov. Real estate developer A sold land to (his) State Senator B, who flipped it to Governor Perry, who flipped it back to real estate developer C, who was the business partner of real estate developer A for a profit of over $800,000.
I suppose they could have skipped the song and dance, and simply cut Ricky P a check, or maybe have a Columbian in a white suit and sunglasses deliver cash in a briefcase, but then the Rickster doesn’t get the satisfaction of having outfoxed developers at their own game…
August 31st, 2011 at 12:30 am
5 big negatives? That’s easy. Anyone who is intellectually honest and not just here as a salesman wouldn’t find it hard.
1. Mitt governed in a liberal state and, therefore, finds it awkward to speak about conservatism.
2. He spearheaded RomneyCare with the mandate.
3. He has trouble connecting with blue collar workers.
4. His wealth and Northeastern mentality are a turn off for many in flyover country.
5. His business mentality is not well-suited for political campaigning.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:32 am
Perry,
It not so much a question of lists, though they were floating around at ROS (and I made one for Huck). It’s a question of your seeming unconcern for Bachmann’s lack of executive experience, after preaching that gospel for years, or your nonchalance about some very obvious ethics issues for Rick, despite your concern for good government.
You don’t seem to ever address these (and other) inconsistencies except with a glib dismissal and some smileycon.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:34 am
91.
I see one there. #2. The rest are self serving as a Rombot fanboy..
Bad try.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:37 am
93. Why don’t you show us how it’s done–using Perry.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:38 am
Problems with Huntsman:
1. Support of civil unions.
2. He’s more sold on man made global warming than me, and the bulk of the GOP electorate.
3. Though (perhaps because) extremely intelligent, he can come off a bit pedantic, even patronizing.
4. I would like to see more policy details.
5. He raised his hand with everyone else at the debate, claiming that he’d refuse $10 cuts for every $1 in taxes.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:40 am
Matt,
Sorry you missed why I supported Bachmann post-Huck and pre-Perry but I’m done explaining it for the fourth time today alone.
Ethic issues for Rick? You listen/read too many liberal hit pieces on Perry. You’re better than that, I thought.
Give me proof from a neutral or conservative source, or a legal action brought against Perrty by a non-Dem — then and only then I’ll address it.
I don’t address smears, mudslinging, and dirty liberal tactics. I…that’s right SMILE at them
August 31st, 2011 at 12:41 am
Craig,
Or if you don’t want to make a list (your idea), at least give us an honest, heartfelt, Christian assessment of that sweetheart land deal I referenced in #90.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:42 am
84. Sure thing.
1. He tried too hard to please everyone last time around and ended up getting his jogging shorts handed to him as a result.
2. He’s awkward as a baby giraffe at times on the stump.
3. He came from Freaking Massachssetts, when, with just a little commute, he could have been governor of New Hampshire instead.
4. He wore the dang suit too much last time because he’s his danged father’s son and takes it all so seriously, and if it’s serious, you wear a suit. He’s fixed that.
5. Recently, in opposing the negotiated deal with the debt limit he stated he would have balanced the budget without raising taxes or cutting military spending, or something like that, which I thought was patently absurd, and I said so right here on R42012.
Bonus points:
6. He hasn’t made much of a case thus far for what he would actually do, and I’m not going to support him if his case is feebler than I expect it to be.
Competence? His record is out there, and I don’t really see a superior to him. Issue by issue I’d lay that out, but it’s awfully late tonight, and I’ve done it before, and now I’m going to bed.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:43 am
Craig,
http://www.frumforum.com/how-rick-perry-got-rich
August 31st, 2011 at 12:47 am
Matt’s list is excellent. Mine will come in the morming, Cali time….sweet dreams
Oh, wait…where’s Watchini, head self-appointed crazed Rombot’s list on. I shall wait for his. He’ll probably try to pull a Hamaca “phony” list — but it doesn’t work that way.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:47 am
*morning
August 31st, 2011 at 12:48 am
Attacking sources is immature. If you’re the news police I’ll put you on notice right now that a pigeon-holed world view is admirable in no circle I spin in, and it’s disingenuous. If you’re a conservative you don’t expect the Fox to guard the henhouse. (bad pun intended)
August 31st, 2011 at 12:49 am
78 Matt “MWS”
Matt,
My sincere appologies for not mentioning beard scratchers,the true leaders in talking stupid, idiotic and highly inaccurate predictions about everything concerning the great SARAH PALIN.
Remember,you and your fellow beard scratchers were predicting:
“By June Sarah Palin will be in the middle single digits,gone….”
It’s OK Matt,long time ago you helped me describe the dreadful,cowrdly
Neocons in proper English,thanks again!
August 31st, 2011 at 12:51 am
Frum is a joke. NOT a conservative. Hardcore moderate Perry/Huck hater is more like it. Next.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:58 am
Craig,
http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/08/28/3319362/perry-became-a-millionaire-while.html#ixzz1WN72aU8G
August 31st, 2011 at 1:01 am
TEX,
“My sincere appologies for not mentioning beard scratchers,the true leaders in talking stupid, idiotic and highly inaccurate predictions about everything concerning the great SARAH PALIN.”
Apology accepted.
“Remember,you and your fellow beard scratchers were predicting:
“By June Sarah Palin will be in the middle single digits,gone….”
In most polls, she’s at least been within the MoE of mid single digits. Had Huck entered the race, I’m quite confident she would have completed that journey from 68% to mid single digits.
By and by, do you remember when you and your fellow you predicted Sarah would announce July 4th?
August 31st, 2011 at 1:07 am
Matt,
Nothing wrong with becoming a millionaire through investments while holding public office. Next.
I wanna see indictments, DA investigations, FBI stings. C’mon! If the guy is as corrupt as the Kos Kids “report” and Keith Olbermann says every day on his new Mickey Mouse network, the evidence will be easy to find to convict him. If it’s sooooo obvious, let’s have it.
Truth be told. You. Have. Nothing. You just have another candidate you’re trying to promote instead of Perry.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:12 am
Watchini,
“Mitt tried so hard…”
Nothing about Willard’s incompetence in creating Obamneycare, appointing abortion judges, and on and on and on. Oh puhlease…Tear your list up. It’s a joke just like you are here everyday.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:13 am
104. Maybe it’s news to you, but being a conservative is a responsibility. Power is potentially corrupting. Humans are prone to misuse it when given it. Conservatives are famous for their love of accountability, and embrace the checks and balances that establish healthy and moral boundaries in political leaders.
Sadly, I don’t expect Republican leaning press sources to aggressively pursue corruption of Republicans. Do you? Do you believe Republicans should not receive scrutiny? I don’t expect MSNBC to aggressively explore Democratic corruption either.
Credible sources? My bias is to go broader,not narrower, multiple sources, unemotional presentation, thoughtful inquiry . . . if you are pretending to be the conservative news source gatekeeper here, you seriously overestimate the reach and scope of you.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:16 am
P/B reminds me of the younger brother who’s excited to hang out with his older brother and his new kids on the block friends–tries to talk like them, be cool like them, hopes he’s one of them. In actuality, he’s just tolerated. And it’s embarrassing. Eventually he’ll grow out of it and be his own person. And develop a core.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:23 am
Here’s mine on Perry then — which I’ll mail off to him tomorrow..
1. Quit being a country boy. You should move back into the governor’s mansion. Pitch a tent in the backyard if the interior has been condemmed or is unsafe. You’re not special.
2. Quit poking, punching, and shaking Dems. Dems are people, too.
3. Quit praying so much. You think there’s Someone In The Sky listening or something?
4. Quit blowing kisses at Romney like you did at the Iowa Starte Fair. You’ll get your chance. But don’t tease him before then. It’s not kind.
5. And quit calling Michele Backmann, “that fireball gal”. What are you, a guest star on “Mad Men”?
4.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:25 am
Oops, extraneous “4″
August 31st, 2011 at 1:26 am
*Iowa State Fair
August 31st, 2011 at 1:27 am
*Bachmann ..yeah it’s late even in Cali (11:27)
August 31st, 2011 at 1:29 am
106 Matt
By and by, do you remember when you and your fellow you predicted Sarah would announce July 4th?
===============================================
I sure do!
It’s a reflection of naiveté and stupidity on my part when it comes to
guess and predict the strategy and the best political instinct in the
country of Sarah Palin!!!
Sarah Palin was brilliant not to declare on July 4th!!!
That’s why she’s Great SARAH PALIN and I’m TEX!
Does that help you any?!
August 31st, 2011 at 1:31 am
Hamaca reminds me of CF.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:33 am
Hamaca reminds me of CF with his hypocritical lists.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:35 am
ASnd he’s a little like banned Martha with his smugness and lack of common sense.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:37 am
*And
Ok, everyone get ready for more polls and phony liberal charges aginst Perry tomorrow.. Fun times, indeed for a frontrunner.. ‘Night.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:38 am
*against
August 31st, 2011 at 1:39 am
P/B–you’re trying too hard. Go get some rest before you embarrass yourself even more. Btw, your list? Fail. For all the reasons you assigned to the others that were willing to engage with you, but even worse.
August 31st, 2011 at 2:01 am
#116 Perry/Bachmann
Hamaca reminds me of CF.
===========================================
Craig For Losers,
Hamaca is a classy guy,one of the finest contributors on this site,
and you are,well,you are Craig For Losers,a complete Loser!!!
August 31st, 2011 at 2:38 am
ABC News reports that the Governor will be headed to Manchester, New Hampshire after her September 3rd speech in Indianola, Iowa:
The Tea Party Express announced Tuesday night that Sarah Palin will be speaking at their Labor Day rally in Manchester, N.H. on Monday.
“We are always thrilled to have Sarah Palin join one of our rallies,” Tea Party Express chairwoman Amy Kremer said in a statement. “She is an electrifying figure in conservative politics and a hero to the tea party movement.”
SarahPAC confirmed the Tea Party Express announcement of Palin’s New Hampshire appearance.
Palin is heading to New Hampshire after a weekend trip to Iowa to address another Tea Party event on Sept. 3. The former Alaska governor will headline the inaugural event of the Tea Party of America in Indianola.
August 31st, 2011 at 2:45 am
“We are always thrilled to have Sarah Palin join one of our rallies,”
Tea Party Express chairwoman Amy Kremer said in a statement.
“She is an electrifying figure in conservative politics and a hero to the tea party movement.”
SarahPAC confirmed the Tea Party Express announcement of Palin’s New Hampshire appearance.
August 31st, 2011 at 5:43 am
Well, for what its worth, most of the ” attributes” suggested o this blog are totally irrelevant to a successful Presidency. People have suggested ” Likability”, ” electrification?”, ” ability to campaign “, etc. This blog is replete with these irrelevant suggestions. Some have said its not important because Frum isn’t a conservative.
We have been adrift in this nation for a decade or more because we have adhered to the idea that ” anyone can grow up to be President” as if a resume was not important, as if values were irrelevant. We have a society which has little use for that which is most important. We pay teachers , firemen, police……almost poverty wages while we award movie stars, sports heroes top Jack. Accordingly, we look for little competence in a candidate’s resume. Indeed , in our televised “debates” we don’t even ask questions of competence and we don’t provide any time for substantive answers. The Nixon -Kennedy debates have segued into 1 minute answers about favorite pizzas. With 30 second follow ups. We expect ” incompetence” in office….. and we get it. We deserve it because we ask for so little…….only a degree of entertainment.
CraigS
August 31st, 2011 at 7:44 am
Competence is judged by the electorate as mostly a function of success. I think, for example, Bush was judged incompetent in his managing of the Iraq war because it seemed a failure whereas Obama has been given high marks on the Libyan intervention because it has so far proven successful in comparison.
The same is true of campaigns. Romney was judged as running a very competent campaign until Perry entered the race and now that competency is being questioned. Romney’s management has not changed, only the campaign dynamics have.
August 31st, 2011 at 7:52 am
Yes, and you omitted to include RomneyCare, Romney’s signature and perhaps only achievement as an otherwise unremarkable caretaker governor, Romneycare being a progressive policy regime in the form of a massive and fiscally irresponsible entitlement program that would become the basis of ObamaCare. If Willard stood a ghost of a chance I would be afraid he would do it again at the national level as the man’s instincts are progressive, not conservative. But as luck, or fate, or the historical moment, or Romney’s own baffling incompetence would have it, no one has anything to fear from his doomed vanity campaign to make lots of highly-paid political consultants rich without any risk to themselves.
August 31st, 2011 at 8:02 am
Yes, success is the one, the true, and the only, criterion for success, and the brute fact that Romney failed to plan for contingencies, or to adapt his campaign to perform given the new “dynamic” as you put it, indicates a painful lack of imagination, forethought, and understanding, combined with a level of non-competence, entirely inconsistent with one who aspires to our highest office. But the big problem is a massive entitlements program called RomneyCare, which became the model for ObamaCare. How do you run from that?
August 31st, 2011 at 8:06 am
Let’s be all adults.
Everybody knows Sarah Palin is running–her family, her friends, her foes and her bitter enemies. Why do we have to insist on creating this charade that she is a celebrity diva, a tease, or only shows up (free I might add) to speak at TP rallies so she can become the next Oprah and to become more rich and famous.
I simply am not that disingenuous. I can shout someone is NOT running without any public evidence to back my claim.
With both Mike Huckabee and Mitch Daniels I predicted neither would run because of their wives.
I knew Paul Ryan would not run because he said on a number of occasions. And so did Chris Christie.
Sarah Palin has never said she was not running. And from that you gather she is not running. That makes absolutely no sense.
In addition there are rumors that Sarah Palin has tens of thousands of volunteers on the ground nationwide through a volunteer group called Organize4Palin.
As one of those volunteers said recently: “I talked to Todd Palin for 20 minutes and at no time did he suggests that we should shut down our volunteer efforts.”
So either Sarah Palin is taking advantage of the generosity volunteers or she is waiting for the right time to strike.
Regardless of what you think about Sarah Palin, she is a devout Christian. She would never allow people to work so hard for her to prepare her run for the presidency if she knew she wasn’t running.
August 31st, 2011 at 8:17 am
Perry, more than any figure on the American polical landscape could have accomplished, has at the same time successfully highlighted both the many admirable qualities of Romney and his glaring weaknesses as a candidate. In terms of cultural cues, personality, certain aspects of his record, etc., Romney is simply not on the GOP shopping-list.
Matthew Miller wrote that Perry is the GOP’s Schumer & Rangel, winning only because he’s a bright red guy in a bright red state, and won’t translate in the general election. The problem, of course, is that Romney became a Schumer, not even a Scott Brown, Republican so he could win in MA, then moved to the right and now has to convince the base to nominate him over a red state candidate.
My ideal outcome: Perry stays strong into December but Obama is beating him in all the polls, Mitt takes on Huck as his running mate (who would take a bite out of Perry like no one else), the talk radio gang agrees that this is the best outcome as to avoid a loss to Obama and Mitt/Mike sail to victory in 2012. (you heard it hear first)
August 31st, 2011 at 8:19 am
Jonathan,
“Also, just for some statistical fun, Rubio got 48.89% of the vote. At the same time, Rick Scott, who won by 60,000 votes, got 48.87% of the vote. Essentially, Rubio and Scott performed exactly the same in the race, yet Rubio won by a landslide. Not to take anything away from Rubio, he ran a great race, but in a two-way race against a strong Democrat, he might’ve barely won if he won at all.”
Find me another multi-candidate race, where at least 3 candidates were above 10%, in which the winner ran as well as Rubio. I think you’ll have a very hard time. I’ve made something of a study of 3-way races, given my interest in Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty’s first race fit this criteria (though in his second, the third party candidate ended up with 6.4%). In 2002:
Pawlenty 44.4%
Moe 36.5%
Penny 16.2%
Another obvious example is Lisa Murkowski’s victory in the 3-way Alaska Senate contest. In that one, the Democrat had essentially been limited to hardcore Democratic voters. And yet:
Murkowski 39.06%
Miller 35.11%
McAdams 23.21%
Other examples from the Minnesota annals. Coleman/Franken/Barkley ’08.
Franken 41.98%
Coleman 41.98%
Barkley 15.16%
One other biggie.
Clinton 43.0%
Bush 37.5%
Perot 18.9%
A rule of thumb of 3-way races is that, unless one candidate collapses, (under 10%), no one will get near 50%. I’d be genuinely curious to see some counter-examples. I’ve been racking my brains for other famous 3-way races. Buckley/Ottinger/Goodell in ’70 comes to mind. There, the results were 38.8%/36.8%/24.3%. Also the Lindsay/Bearne/Buckley NYC mayoral race in ’65. There, the results were 43.3%/39.4%/12.9%. The Lieberman/Lamont/Schleshinger race almost qualifies but not quite (Schleshinger finished at 9.62%). Even then, Liebs couldn’t quite get to 50% (49.71). The Patrick/Baker/Cahill race also comes closish to qualifying (Cahill finished at 8%) but, again, the winner fell below 50% (Patrick finished at 48.4%). I know this is going to bug me for weeks. Anyone have any ideas? Legitimate 3-way races where the winner finished above 45% and the 3rd place finisher wasn’t just statistical noise?
August 31st, 2011 at 8:25 am
Translation: Romney is helpless, and largely hopeless in that the best he can hope for is the underperformance of a Perry campaign. And this is the visionless non-competent that we hope scuttles his way sideways like a crab into the White House through a crack in the wall of the campaign of a more adept communicator with a more consistent record of performance in office delivering pro-growth policies? Um, yeah, there’s a vision we can all … gather around … if this were an alternate universe where failure were reckoned as success.
August 31st, 2011 at 8:30 am
Tex, you know what we think. Media hog, who needs to keep her name in the news so her cash flow does not dry up as quickly as it should.
August 31st, 2011 at 8:35 am
132. No, actually, I agree with others here that Perry would lose to Obama and, I’m convinced, that Mitt/Mike would beat him.
August 31st, 2011 at 8:39 am
think we need a ten posting per thread limit.
August 31st, 2011 at 8:46 am
MEM,
I think enhancing the prestige of Rubio’s win is that there was only one “white guy” in the race, and that white guy got blown out (while I would consider Rubio “white”, many people wouldn’t consider anyone with a hispanic surname “white”). While I understand it was not 1960, or even 1980, there are still an awful lot of Floridians who voted in 1980, and even 1960. Those folks were also Crist’s “core” supporters.
August 31st, 2011 at 8:52 am
New Quin poll out this morning..Outlier?
August 31st, 2011 at 8:56 am
What casuist really means is, lets let the professional politician have the nomination because I (casuist) could sit down and have a beer with him and talk about politics, religion and turning a modest State salary into millions.
August 31st, 2011 at 8:57 am
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/08/who-doomed-sarah-palins-presidential-hopes.php
August 31st, 2011 at 8:58 am
Perry wins over key evangelical leader
August 31st, 2011 at 9:02 am
Now Sarah Palin has reinvited Christine O’Donnell to speak with her Sat after uninviting her yesterday — which caused COD to tweet her disappoinment.
But they’re BFF’s again! And will share the stage.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:04 am
It takes awhile for average Conservatives to disabuse themselves of the notion that they’ve found the new Messiah once they’ve settled on who they think is the answer. The Fred Thompson hype in 2007 was insufferable and lasted until it was all too painfully obvious that the man didn’t begin to live up to the hype.
Even now, there are people who haven’t given up on their Sarah fixation, four years after she was made Queen by the scions of talk radio, and several months after EVERY general election poll has shown her to be TOTALLY unelectable.
The bandwagon effect with Rick Perry is of a piece with the above. Had it occurred 2 or 3 months later, it might have been unstoppable. As it is, the bloom will be off the rose well before the commencement of combat.
Mitt will win New Hampshire regardless of what transpires in Iowa. They know him there, and to know Mitt is to love him. He will win Nevada, where his organization is a Leviathan in comparison to anybody else’s. And if he holds onto Florida, he will hold onto the nomination. If Michigan and Arizona go early, so much the better. He will win in a walk, if that occurs.
Mitt can adapt to changing circumstances, which is why he’s headed to South Carolina to kiss and make up with DeMint. He’s faced adversity before….and he’s triumphed in the face of it.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:07 am
TEX,
Yeah, when a nut like you vouches for another poster, that credible. Right.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:08 am
*that’s
August 31st, 2011 at 9:10 am
TEX,
#115 is the first self-depracating comment I can recall reading of yours. Well done. Giving yourself a little slap every now and then makes you more…. likeable.
Whether in the cyberworld or the real world, it’s good not to take oneself too seriously. I don’t trust anyone who can’t laugh at his own foibles- or worse, doesn’t think he has any.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:11 am
Dave,
A 12-0 candidate versus one with a 1-2 career election record. That should be a close contest —- in bizarro world.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:14 am
Craig Perry,
I’ll vouch for Hamaca- for what it’s worth. He’s a class act, and always treats other commentators at least a little better than they are treating him. And despite his poor taste in candidates, I can tell he has a lot of integrity, here, and in the real world.
Same goes for Watch.
And mac, but you’ve always liked him….
August 31st, 2011 at 9:16 am
Anthony, I really enjoyed the analysis and the article. Thank you!
August 31st, 2011 at 9:18 am
Craig Perry,
John Dingell is on a 28 race winning streak. I suppose the Presidency is his for the asking.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:18 am
Gettin’ there – soon enough.
General Election: Perry vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Perry (R) Spread
RCP Average 8/5 – 8/27 — 47.0 43.6 Obama +3.4
Quinnip 8/16 – 8/27 2730 RV 45 42 Obama +3 ..TODAY
Rasmus 8/17 – 8/22 1000 LV 43 40 Obama +3
PPP (D) 8/18 – 8/21 700 RV 49 43 Obama +6
Gallup 8/17 – 8/18 879 RV 47 47 Tie
CNN/OpR 8/5 – 8/7 930 RV 51 46 Obama +5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_perry_vs_obama-2701.html
August 31st, 2011 at 9:20 am
Dingall makes the Dems proud, I’m sure.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:23 am
Now we’re gonna knock winners?
Again, we’re Republicans, right? C’mon, winning elections against Dems is not as easy as you think. Especially if you once were one
August 31st, 2011 at 9:26 am
Matthew E. Miller, here’s another one:
New York 1980 Senate race:
Al D’Amato 44.88%
Elizabeth Holtzman 43.54%
Jacob Javits 11.05%
August 31st, 2011 at 9:30 am
“In 2007, he ripped Perry for mandating that all 6th grade girls get an HPV vaccine, claiming it would lead to more pre-marital sex.
“The governor’s action seems to signify that God’s moral law regarding sex outside of marriage can be transgressed without consequence.”
But Scarborough now says he can appreciate how Perry made the decision.
“I’ve found that even when I’ve had strong disagreements with Rick Perry, once I saw his perspective I could see how he arrived at a conclusion.”
Perry’s proven himself awfully adept at soothing disaffected religious backers — both at the state and now national level.
Most recently, he took heat for saying he was fine with New York recognizing gay marriage, but after a quick chat with key evangelical, Tony Perkins, he clarified his position to the satisfaction of both Perkins and many in the movement.
I think the key to Perry isn’t necessarily in what he says, but how he says it. As Scarborough told Time:
“It was obvious to me as a preacher that it was real, it was undoctored, it was unprepared, it was off the cuff.”
“
What other choice does this evangelical preacher have?
August 31st, 2011 at 9:32 am
The 1968 Presidential race was something like 43/42/13 for Nixon/Humphrey/Wallace.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:32 am
1912 Presidential election:
Wilson 41.8%
Roosevelt 27.4%
Taft 23.2%
Debs 6.0%
August 31st, 2011 at 9:35 am
Craig Perry,
The point is a succuessfull winning record- while certainly better than the alternative- is no guarantee of future success. Just ask ol’ John Kerry, or John McCain, or Mike Dukakis, or countless others….
The fact is, Perry underperforms, considering he’s in a crimson red state, and can use taxpayer money to attract donors.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:37 am
1980 was close to the phenomenon MEM is looking for. Reagan got 51, Carter got 41, and the 3rd party candidates collectively got 8%.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:42 am
Oh Matty,
Gotta disagree — Mac is pretty cool for a pro choicer fan, Tex is certifiably crazy even as Palin fanboys go, and Hamaca (who I’ve also read his dribble at other sites — think of an older CF) is a bitterly disappointed hardcore Rombot who tries to fool folks here that he’s not. I stress the word bitter — has to do with Iowa’s ’08 caucus or something from the past Huck related..think of a little milder Aaron from ROS for comparison.
As for you, you’re just going through a phase backing the most pro evolution, pro global warming, anti-Reagan’s 11th commandment candidate that you could find — who’s sitting at 1% or “*” or “-” in practically all of the scientific polling to date. I predict you join the Rombots when SC rolls around. Wanna bet?
August 31st, 2011 at 9:42 am
P/B,
The Quinnipiac national poll released today interviewed 2370 registered voters and showed Perry losing to Obama by 3 points…..while Mitt did NOT lose to Obama. And, unlike Perry, Mitt carried the Independent vote by 6 points…..which is the KEY to victory.
The same poll shows the generic ballot tied, while Rasmussen has Republicans up by 10…..that’s the difference between a ‘registered voter’ poll and a ‘likely voter’ poll. It means that Rick probably beats Obama instead of losing to him by 3, but it also means Mitt creams him.
As for the primary, the fact Perry is at 24, while Mitt is at 18, means that Perry has already lost some of his luster, and Mitt is headed back up. Mitt’s obviously stronger than 18 in most of the early states, while Perry will be found to be weaker…..with the exception of South Carolina.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:46 am
BTW,
This sort of goes without saying, but Bachmann and Palin both lose, BIG TIME, to Obama in the Q poll.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:51 am
Obama’s new plan not too popular..
RasmussenPoll Scott Rasmussen
30% Favor Federal Government Temporarily Hiring One Million People… http://tinyurl.com/RR3803
1 minute ago
August 31st, 2011 at 9:52 am
I am going to make a very simple analysis. Rick Perry will not be our next president because he’s not very likable. I’m not sure he’ll even get the nom.
All this analysis on his record is interesting, but bottom-line, the guy comes across as a jerk.
Huckabee was much more warm and pleasant…that got him a long way. Romney is not exactly warm, but he is more like the brainiac competant type. Romney’s the kind of guy you want in charge, even if you don’t want to have a beer with him. But Perry is like a jerk family member that you’re glad you only have to see during the holidays.
I think personality plays a much larger role in politics than most analysis gives credit.
Let’s face it: Obama has a nice smile and seems like a nice family man. That’s good enough for almost 30% of the population.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:54 am
Dave
Tied versus 3 behind is very close and within the MOE.
Trends show Perry is catching Obama. What will your excuse be when he does??? Uh-oh, that was your last line of defense.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:57 am
Dave,
Perry’s tiny six point lead could be an outlier. Let’s see if Perry goes back up by double digits in the next one. Prediction: He does just that.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:59 am
Only your scenario assumes that the comedy sci-fi alternate universe duo of Willard/Huck becomes the grudging choice of radio personalities because Perry is perceived to under-perform against Obama, or something. Does anyone remember how some guy named Limbaugh began to shill furiously for Romney and against McCain in the waning stages of the last GOP presidential primary season–to absolutely no effect? This was back when Bain Capital was in a deal to buy Clear Channel and all the talking heads suddenly started–strangely, magically–promoting Romney.
The grim history of Romney’s campaign antics contradict your “talk-radio is our salvation” hypothesis. Talk radio doesn’t influence conservatives in the way that naive media critics assume.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:01 am
Oh Teeeeeeeeex, Teeeeeeely, and Frankeeeeee,
Care to comment on this?
TheFix So now Palin isn’t going to the tea party rally in Iowa? Um… http://ow.ly/6hCEl
about 1 minute ago · reply · retweet · favorite
Chris CillizzaWashington Post – Blogger (DC)
August 31st, 2011 at 10:04 am
No, Romney’s the guy I want in the back-office with his spreadsheets taking orders from more competent professionals in a third-tier accounting firm for the pet-grooming products sector. The last time someone was dumb enough to put this non-performer in charge of anything the result was a massive and fiscally irresponsible entitlements regime called RomneyCare, which became the policy basis of ObamaCare.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:04 am
159. Craig, I’m guessing you know this already but, just to clarify, I admire Tom Ridge so much, despite his stance on abortion, because everything in his background and up to the present suggests that he has the highest degree of integrity. However, he is tragically wrong on abortion.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:11 am
169,
That’s waaaay cooler and good to hear, Mac.
I just couldn’t see how one builds a bridge from Huck to Ridge as their nomination choice.
Now as for Huck’s veep, Ridge or Rudy are fine with me.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:13 am
WALL STREET JOURNAL
August 31, 2011, 10:49 AM ET.
Sarah Palin Cancels Appearance at Tea Party Rally in Iowa.
And Michele Bachmann smiles.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:13 am
128, Classic blither-blather.
Here’s the formula: Feel deep and intense contempt for an opponent. Use negative and extreme words with great intensity. Now feel the release of endorphins in your brain and say AAAHHH!
Romney is in the driver’s seat. Perry is already slipping. He can feel smug about IA and SC and that’s about it. The long months before voting starts in IA will see scrutiny Perry isn’t use to. His Blago imitation, real estate/lobbyist boogie-woogie, the kind of criticism you get when your speeches before large groups are 6th grade essays, it’s all going to wear the enamel off Perry’s fangs.
And I don’t have to use hyperbole and contemptuous rhetoric to make these points. I think that means I’m winning.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:13 am
166. What else explains the Perry/Bachmann surges but the talk radio love fest from Rush and the gang? Huck remains very popular with the base despite getting reamed by Rush, etc., while Romney is popular with about 1 in 5 Republicans.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:13 am
The cannibals are out.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/62380.html
August 31st, 2011 at 10:14 am
“Romney is in the driver’s seat.” -Watchini
Off a cliff.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:16 am
168. Again with the “massive”. We need to get you to a thesuarus somehow.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:17 am
Nailed it.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:17 am
You assume a cause from a correlation. Talk radio personalities know their audience(s).
August 31st, 2011 at 10:18 am
NH, NV, FL. Driver’s seat. Trumps Iowa/South Carolina/dead end.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:20 am
170. I’ve explained my admiration for Ridge before, maybe you missed it. Anyway, I agree that Ridge would make a great running for Huck, Palin or Bachmann.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:21 am
I toyed with labyrinthine, or Byzantine, to depict the bureaucratic excesses of RomneyCare, but these terms fail to deliver a sense of the breadth or depth of the policy disaster that Willard visited upon the peoples of MA, and that fell on us all in the form of ObamaCare, which took RomneyCare for its model. But your point is well taken. I will continue to consider alternatives.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:22 am
177, Since you’re monitoring our news sources, I’ve got an idea. The more narrowly you read, the less contrary information hyou expose yourself to, the happier you’re going to be as a Perry/Bachmann fan.
Pretty soon you’re going to have to just stick to reading only what you yourself write. ther rest of it is going to get mighty disturbing . . .
August 31st, 2011 at 10:24 am
140.
So Craig, and casusit, and ST, are you appreciative of how Perry made this mandate decision?
August 31st, 2011 at 10:24 am
More Wall Street Journal fun this morn:
August 31st, 2011 at 10:24 am
Perry wants to take on Social Security in Florida. Michele wants to drill for oil in the Everglades.
You can’t make this stuff up!
August 31st, 2011 at 10:26 am
183.
Craig, casusit, & ST – keep in mind that a heavy majority of the legislature didn’t see fit to appreciate his thought process – So I’m anxious to hear how you come to grips with this great thought process.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:28 am
Perry can write a letter to Hilary praising her for all her efforts to reform healthcare. That’s just fine with ya’ll,
Mitt uses a template devised by a Conservative think tank in response to Hilarycare to institute reforms in Massachussetts, and he’s from the infernal pit.
You can’t make this stuff up!
August 31st, 2011 at 10:28 am
P/B
My “last line of defense” would be that only Romney will give us a smaller government in constant dollars. Frankly, he will give us a MUCH smaller government. Perry took Texas from a government spending less than $50 Billion to one spending more than $90 Billion.
Mitt reduced the size of Massachusetts government by holding spending growth to LESS than the inflation rate, lowering taxes 19 times, and reducing the number of state employees…..and might have done far more, if it hadn’t been for more than 700 of his vetoes being overridden.
The size and scope of government HAVE to be reduced if we’re to balance budgets and eventually start paying off the national debt. If it isn’t, horrible things will happen to our children.
BTW,
My guess is that Perry would beat Obama, but the polling doesn’t support that hunch. What the polling DOES support is that Romney will beat him, which gives me a warm, snuggly feeling.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:29 am
189.
I only read about 1/3 of the comments — usually just the several ones before and after mine. Most everything else is Rombots on the loose garbage — which I mostly skip.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:30 am
164 P/B says “Trends show Perry is catching Obama. What will your excuse be when he does??? Uh-oh, that was your last line of defense”
What excuse will you and casuist have when Perrywinckle implodes? He’s got more baggage than Paris Hilton!!!
August 31st, 2011 at 10:31 am
oops, 189 was for 180
August 31st, 2011 at 10:31 am
Can somebody copy my post re: Perry and this evangelical leader’s “change of heart” over Perry’s mandate thought process so that Craig for “flavor of the month” can see it? I think I might still be in Craig’s corner because I keep catching him in his hypocricy.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:32 am
Paris who?
August 31st, 2011 at 10:35 am
189 Ha! You’re already implementing my suggestion in 182!
August 31st, 2011 at 10:35 am
#193 – don’t play stupid, you’ve got the video!
August 31st, 2011 at 10:36 am
I appreciate that Perry is a sitting governor from a state continuous with the GOP regional base, that he’s popular with the 2 principle ideological formations of the GOP base, the social conservatives and the tea partiers, and that he has many years of experience delivering pro-growth policies.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:37 am
Watch,
Except now he’ll never know that you know he’s implementing your suggestion!
August 31st, 2011 at 10:38 am
#196 casuist – translation: Blah, blah, blah…..and more talking points…..
August 31st, 2011 at 10:38 am
casuist,
I can tell you’re an earthy sort of chap, but doesn’t the corruption bother you just a bit?
August 31st, 2011 at 10:39 am
Dave,
Well, thanks for sharing with us that you have a warm feeling forv Romney like Chris Matthews (I assume) has for Obama. Up the leg?
Oh, btw – your facts are wrong – Romney does not LEAD Obama but both Perry and Romney are close.
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
RCP Average 8/5 – 8/27 — 46.5 45.0 Obama +1.5
General Election: Perry vs. Obama Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Perry (R) Spread
RCP Average 8/5 – 8/27 — 47.0 43.6 Obama +3.4
August 31st, 2011 at 10:39 am
Hasn’t happened. Don’t think it will. All hypotheticals at this point. Willard “I gave you RomneyCare” Romney, on the other hand, is imploding, right here, right now, and right before our delighted eyes. What excuse can you offer for so huge a failure from so allegedly “competent” a campaigner?
August 31st, 2011 at 10:40 am
178. Their audience wouldn’t know who Perry is if they weren’t shilling for him.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:40 am
^
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_perry_vs_obama-2701.html
August 31st, 2011 at 10:42 am
Show me an indictment. Show me even an impanelled grand jury. Here is what I see: A sitting governor from a state continuous with the GOP regional base, that he’s popular with the 2 principle ideological formations of the GOP base, the social conservatives and the tea partiers, and that he has many years of experience delivering pro-growth policies. I just never get tired of harping on this single string of Perry’s many strengths.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:42 am
Once again, I plead with all and sundry- the RomNots and the PerryNots- to unite behind the one candidate in the race who is neither of those men, nor insane.
Get in on the ground floor.
….or at least within a few inches of it.
Jon Huntsman 2012.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:43 am
196.
BRAWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
Now there is exactly what I figured I’d get from you and Craig and ST. Get directly faced with hypocricy and doing an about face spin out to try to act like the issue isn’t there.
FACT!: Rick Perry and his own administration tried to force a mandate for teen girls to be given the HPV vaccine without parental consent and fought against the state legislature to try to get it done. Not conservative in any way.
For you to try to rail on Romney for his mandate while throwing a shroud over Perry’s mandate merely because in TX the state legislature shot his horrid idea down is hypocricy at it’s finest.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:43 am
Romney comes a lot closer than Palin though because most admire how he hung in there for one full term despite his growing unpopularity. Palin, on the other hand, merely bailed out halfway through. How competent is that when the going got tough?
==========================================
The state of Alaska put her in a position where she had run up hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal bills which could have spiraled into millions. The state pretty much admitted it was wrong by changing the law after she left. Also the Obama people were pressuring Democrats in Alaska to
stop working with Palin as they had been doing before she was chosen. She spiked their guns by resigning. Face it, she’s playing chess and you are playing checkers.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:43 am
198. LOL!
August 31st, 2011 at 10:43 am
201 – have you given any thought to what name you will use on this site after perrywinckle is no longer in the race??? you certainly wont have the walnuts to use casuist.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:44 am
Earned media can be powerful but seldom decisive. If you want to pretend to be a media critic then you should probably study the research literature on the issue.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:44 am
casuist,
“Show me an indictment.”
I know that you’re cynical enough to appreciate that not all corruption is illegal. After all, the politicians write the laws which govern them.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:46 am
204 casuist – if perrywinckle has so “many strengths” why do you keep repeating the same three?
August 31st, 2011 at 10:47 am
Yours is an hypothesis at odds with the facts on the ground as they develop. But let us allow it for now. Say Perry’s wife balks at the rigours of a national campaign. I will catch the next bandwagon out to the White House, provided that it isn’t Willard “I gave you RomneyCare” Romney, because we already have an incompetent progressive in the White House, and I would prefer that our incompetent progressives be Democrats rather than undermine the Republican brand.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:47 am
New Quinnipiac Today
Rick Perry, 24%
Mitt Romney, 18%
Sarah Palin 11%
Michele Bachmann, 10%
Ron Paul, 9%
Herman Cain, 5%
Newt Gingrich, 3%
Jon Huntsman, 1%
Rick Santorum, 1%
Thaddeus McCotter, 1%
—————————–
Perry has lost over half his support already just as I predicted. Perry is fading fast folks, just watch and enjoy!
August 31st, 2011 at 10:48 am
thetruth,
“…after perrywinckle is no longer in the race???”
Perrywinkle refers to a supporter of Ricky P, not the candidate himself.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:48 am
Ethic issues for Rick? You listen/read too many liberal hit pieces on Perry. You’re better than that, I thought.
===============================================
A lot of this is public record. Just because the liberal media is putting it out does not make it false. Even a broken watch is right twice a day.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:48 am
Message discipline. Those are the 3 points that matter, the 3 that will deliver a nomination, and perhaps a nation.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:50 am
casuist Says:
August 31st, 2011 at 10:42 am
“I can tell you’re an earthy sort of chap, but doesn’t the corruption bother you just a bit?”
Show me an indictment. Show me even an impanelled grand jury.
===
That’s what I was saying last night. They. Got. Nothing.
Perry’s killing their candidate’s chances…”so. must. throw. mud.” – Sounds like Kos, MSNBC, Clinton News Network, HuffPost, LA & NY Times “strategery” to me.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:50 am
New poll’s up!
August 31st, 2011 at 10:52 am
Yes, and Romney wrote a “law” in the form of a massive government entitlement program called RomneyCare, a fiscally irresponsible botch of a policy regime that became the model of ObamaCare. This would be a form of “legal corruption” that I oppose on principle.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:53 am
Yes. I know. I took that cue from you. I hope you don’t mind me borrowing some of your rejoinders. You have a talent for brevity that I sadly lack.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:53 am
Matt, you are correct again, since I came up with “perrywinckle” for casuist I apologize for the misuse.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:55 am
210 with all deference to your media research, can you explain how a guy who has been campaigning for less than a month, who hasn’t stepped foot on a debate stage, with no name I’d outside of TX, could enjoy a surge like this without a little help from Rush and friends?
August 31st, 2011 at 10:56 am
Interesting factoid:
Mitt Romney vetoed the Massachusetts DREAM Act, but Rick Perry SIGNED the Texas DREAM Act.
Is this an example of Tricky Ricky’s competence?
August 31st, 2011 at 10:58 am
#218……Funny……You are all too willing to hang Romney for less…
August 31st, 2011 at 10:59 am
220. Again with the massive.
Check this out! Texas has 25% of its population not on any insurance. Is it your impression that spending to give them healthcare, which is what we’re all doing, isn’t . . . massive?
Isn’t it possible that you and I have more of our tax dollars going to support the medical care of the 25% of the Texas population that has no insurance than all the money spent on medical care in Massachussetts, combined?
RomNot thinking: If Romney did it, it’s horrible . . . massively horrible.
If Perry didn’t address it, it isn’t a problem.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:00 am
I just never get tired of repeating this: Perry governs a state continuous with the regional base of the GOP. He is well known among the party networkers of the South, South-East, the funders, the organizers, the activists, the party stalwarts, all of them, and when they coalesce around a candidate as they did around Perry, it attracts sudden and intense media attention, not the other way around. Again, you’re confusing a correlation for a cause. Now as the process unfolds out from its center more and more people will come to know Perry through the media, but this is in itself a further effect, not a cause.
It’s the network that counts. It’s the GOP base. This something that Romney never understood, and still doesn’t understand. He seems to think that he can use his platinum card in lieu of genuine retail politicking. He can’t. You can corrupt a lot of GOPers–Romney proved that in 2008 with US$40m of his own money–but you can’t corrupt us all.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:01 am
What creative policy actions did Perry take to address the problem of the uninsured in Texas.
Can we agree that 25% of the Texas population is a massive number?
He had over 10 years. I’m ready to applaud his performance. What did he do?
August 31st, 2011 at 11:03 am
The Perry slide has begun. you will know it is over when he jabs his finger into a reporters chest and explodes
August 31st, 2011 at 11:04 am
#226….Watch
Yeah, and if any “ethics” news came out about Romney like is coming out about Perry, the roof would be blown off of this place.
Does “double standard” even cover it?…
August 31st, 2011 at 11:04 am
Please keep defending RomneyCare, its mandates, its exchanges, all just like ObamaCare. Please-please-please never stop until Willard is consigned to the dustbin of history where he … oddly seems to really want to be if you factor in all his decisions lately. Strange behaviors, eh? eh? eh?
August 31st, 2011 at 11:04 am
#227 Casuist –
Who was the last Republican you voted for for POTUS (in General election)?
August 31st, 2011 at 11:05 am
The problem with Perry backers is that they can’t wrap their head around the fact that Perry’s cult of personality (far right religious evangelical supporters and TEA party supporters) is going to be the focus of a match up with Obama.
The mere fact that Perry chose to roll out his campaign with a prayer event with some freaky fringe folks, then a on the trail questioned the presidents patriotism, the military’s respect for him, thinks Bernake might commit almost treason…the guy’s personality is a ligthening rod for every sterotypical smear of the Republican Party
The GOP will lose with Perry because the race will no longer be about Obama it will be about Perry’s cult of personality.
And if you don’t think Obama can stand up to a tough talking Perry macho jerk routine, remember that Donald Trump was talking tough about Obama too (and way ahead in the polls) and he got gelded at the Washington correspondence dinner.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:07 am
231. Absolutely haven’t even started. I’m taking this very slowly, considering the capacity of the audience as I go.
Perry’s Healthcare reform?
Seems to have only involved 13 yr-old girls.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:07 am
casuist you may not be “corrupt” but you are intellectually dishonest when it comes to your love of Perry and your hate of Romney.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:07 am
It was some unremarkable Senator of many years who clawed his way to the nomination in a very bleak year for the conservative movement. I forget his name. Mac something. McKnight. McMaster. McCain. Something like that.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:08 am
“and he got gelded at the Washington correspondence dinner.”
LOL – Trump wasn’t so interested in public life after people started making fun of him.
He was fine when he was the guy throwing out the insults, but turn the other cheek, and WOAH!!!
August 31st, 2011 at 11:08 am
TheFix So now Palin isn’t going to the tea party rally in Iowa? Um
==================================================
“Correction: Sarah Palin put her appearance at a Tea Party of America rally in Indianola, Iowa, on hold but did not cancel it, as incorrectly reported in an earlier version of this post.”
Ummm. I know you’ll never read this since you admit you don’t read anything
that you don’t agree with.
“The former governor will now appear at a Friday event in Des Moines sponsored by the group Conservatives4Palin. It is currently scheduled for 8 p.m. at The Machine Shed Restaurant, though the location will probably have to be changed, the person close to Ms. Palin said. Ms. Palin is still scheduled to appear at a Tea Party Express tour stop Monday in New Hampshire.
Ms. Palin may still hold an event Saturday, the person said, though she has no firm plans. It’s also possible she could still attend the Indianola tea party rally, the person said. ”
Um. She may be in Iowa for 2 days. Care to comment, Craig????
August 31st, 2011 at 11:08 am
#236
Me, too.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:11 am
I was rather disappointed that the election got called so early in the night for Barack Obama.
That was a bleak election for the conservative movement.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:14 am
Please keep dodging the subject of PerryCare, its mandate, it’s forced medical treatment, all worse than ObamaCare. Please-please-please never stop until Perry is run out of town on the corupt train he rode in on. I’m sure there’s a seat on that train for you.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:14 am
The Romney campaign will be transitioning from a defensive strategy during the month of September, but won’t initiate hostilities. Perry will throw the first punch, as a member of Team Romney suggested: “It’s in his nature.”
That will give Mitt’s campaign the opening they need to go on the offensive.
BTW, if Sarah were to actually enter the campaign, Mitt would become fully engaged in Iowa. It would be really convenient if she would end the Hamlet bit.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:16 am
casuist,
“Yes, and Romney wrote a “law” in the form of a massive government entitlement program called RomneyCare, a fiscally irresponsible botch of a policy regime that became the model of ObamaCare. This would be a form of “legal corruption” that I oppose on principle.”
So why not reject them both and join Huntsman?
As a man of principle, if nothing else….
August 31st, 2011 at 11:31 am
243-
The only way I can see Huntsman gaining traction is if he puts out an ad like this-
A dirty laundry list of all of Perry’s corrupt dealings
Video of Mitt Romney saying what a great governor Rick Perry is
End with the question- how can you trust the judgement of either of these guys?
August 31st, 2011 at 11:39 am
Coming from a Perry supporter this has to be the most asinine comment on this thread. You can claim a myriad of things as to why you think Perry would be the better president than Romney but you lose all credibility when you try to slip in competence.
You can take better campaigner, politician, personality, passion. All things that could very well get Perry the nomination but competence is not one of them.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:16 pm
TO EVERYONE -
No one has refuted my basic assertion that Perry seems like a jerk. Enjoy the high polling numbers Perry fans, because once America gets to know him, they’ll recoil and realize that they couldn’t handle seeing him on TV that much.
The same thing goes for Palin. Her shrill voice will simply turn off most voters.
I hate to distill it down to such simple things, but this is how America looks at these election. They will witness mudslinging on every side, then they’ll go with their gut. And usually it’s the person who annoys them least.
Perry/Palin = annoying.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:35 pm
246. One person’s jerk is to another a charismatic and confident leader. Which it is depends on the person’s own personality.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:22 pm
TEX, Matt,
Thanks for the kind words of support–very appreciated.
August 31st, 2011 at 2:31 pm
Hamaca needed some big boy reassurrance as he was feeling left out from the cool kids.
August 31st, 2011 at 8:19 pm
168. If you would put those business talents of Romney in a third tier of a business, you just guaranteed I would never hire you in my business. You just demonstrated your inability to judge business accumen.
By the way, I now believe you are a paid shill of the another campaign. No one wastes as much time as you pushing Romneycare…… every comment……
December 4th, 2011 at 4:42 am
The influence peddling involved in with pill mills became so intense that I chose last year not to allow my city to face this problem. I introduced an ordinance prohibiting any clinc catering to pain management to be established in Pembroke Pines unless staffed at all hours by a physicial who is board certified in pain management. This way we know it is reputable. The result? Not one pain clinc has chosen to open in my city since the ordinance was adopted. Increasingly, cities are forced to matters into their own hands that are best handled at the state level regarding measures needed to protect the health, safety and welfare of residents simply because our state legislature is slow or unwilling to do what is necessary. That’s a sad commentary but also a true one.
March 26th, 2012 at 7:42 am
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