As an attendee of today’s Ames Straw Poll, I will periodically update this with whatever observations or insights I have. Feel free to also use this as our Straw Poll discussion thread.
Update 11:50: My first impression: My, oh my, the Ron Paul brigade has come out in full force. Everywhere you look, you see Paul signs and bumper stickers. This guy just may win this thing.
Update 12:05: From what I’ve seen, Pawlenty has a good turnout. His campaign has distributed green t-shirts to supporters, making them easy to spot.
Update 12:45: Maybe the other campaigns simply haven’t given their supporters t-shirts, but a substantial number of the people voting consisted of Pawlenty backers.
I’ve now moved inside to watch the candidate speeches. First up, Rick Santorum. He certainly appears to have dedicated supporters, with signs popping up all over the town of Ames and a vocal reception when he just took the stage.
Update 1:00: Santorum just gave an impassioned speeh, calling his effort “the little campaign that could”, highlighting his legislative record and history of defeating Democratic incisors, and placing added emphasis on his pro-life efforts. If he makes it farther in this race, MWS and other ardent pro-lifers, you might have a lot to like in this guy.
Update 1:15: I cannot believe just how many Paulites I’ve seen here. I don’t know just how many of them came from other states, and therefore cannot vote, but they’ve clearly continued their habit of crash straw polls. I expect a hero-like welcome when he takes he stage.
….And, I was right. These people LOVE him.
Update 1:30: In somewhat of a surprise, Paul began by focusing on abortion, instead of his usual bread-and-butter issues of monetary policy and foreign policy.
However, he did migrate to the latter as he moved through his remarks.
Update 2:00: If this audience contains any undecided voters, Pawlenty may have just done himself a big favor with that speech – one of the best I’ve seen from him.
Update 2:20: Bachmann’s speech so far has amounted to giving Iowans a collective pat on the back. I still remain somewhat surprised by the reports of her massive turnout, as her reception hasn’t sounded nearly as enthusiastic as many claim.
She hasn’t veered far from standard Republican boilerplate in this address.
Update 3:55: After touring the grounds for a little while, I’ve now ventured back inside to await and view the announcement of the results. The Bachmann tent did look well-populated, and Paul took up more square yardage than any other candidate. It truly wouldn’t surprise me in the least bit if Paul pulls out the W. I can tell you how many people I’ve seen sporting an “I voted for Ron Paul” shirt or wielding a Paul sign.
Update 4:20: with voting closed a four, the attention now turns to counting and awaiting the results. While I don’t dispute Bachmann’s reportedly strong turnout, if Pawlenty somehow manages to upstae her, imagine the media boost he’ll get.
Update 5:00: the word from Twitter says we had nearly 17,000 votes cast today. That impressive turnout suggests the eventual winner will need far more than 4,000 votes.
Update 5:15: Estimates have begun popping up on Twitter: over 6,000 for Bachmann, 4,500 for Paul, and 3,000 for Pawlenty.
If those prove accurate, will T-Paw have to immediately end his campaign, or can he hold out in the hopes that he will gain momentum into the Caucuses?
Update 5:45: Bachmann wins 4,823. Ron Paul comes in a close crime with 4,671, Pawlenty grabs 2,293, and Santorum and Cain respectively take fourth and fifth.
August 13th, 2011 at 9:47 am
Thanks Anthony,
Thanks Matt “MWS”,
I will try to blog but my comments will always be short.
The TPAW buses are starting to arrive. They are full, but the important question is will they be full later on this morning as they arrive.
The Paul volunteers kicked our ass this morning in setting up…wow!….that hurts more then a little.
August 13th, 2011 at 9:49 am
Grr… I have to work this afternoon so I won’t be able to watch the festivities. Hope you all there on the ground have fun. Go sane candidates!
August 13th, 2011 at 9:58 am
Anthony,
It will be near impossible because she doesn’t take questions from anyone, but try to ask Michelle why she keeps disappearing these past two days.
August 13th, 2011 at 9:58 am
My task has been changed. I’m being moved. No need for massive amount of water to be given out today. Moving inside. I don’t know what I will be doing yet.
August 13th, 2011 at 9:58 am
Smacks,
Maybe they’ll have you on bass.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:04 am
Nope.
Now I’m not moving.
I’m sitting by the bottles of water with two lap tops. I have short black.er..gray..hair…. old looking and fat…. if anyone wants to stop by and say hi.
I like this sitting. Getting nervous. Legs already feeling tired. I think it’s nerves and excitement..but it could be my cold.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:07 am
Matt
Maybe Michelle’s having a migrane issue…..
August 13th, 2011 at 10:08 am
Ric,
I was thinking the same thing.
I’m surprised there isn’t more speculation about it in the press.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:14 am
2 TPAW Torches and myself have just come to an agreement as we sit by our water bottles…..if a dome was to come down from the sky right this minute, and close off anybody else from coming in within 1 mile of the event………Paul would finish first and TPAW 2nd. Their first wave of voters have arrived first.
However,
It doesn’t work that way, does it.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:17 am
A whole bunch of Santorum supporters just came by with boxes of peaches.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:17 am
Gotta say it’s pretty dang awesome to get Smack’s and Anthony’s observations from Ames.
Thanks to both of you for sharing!!!
August 13th, 2011 at 10:19 am
C-Span’s coverage of candidate speeches begins at noon. I believe Santorum is up first.
I will be watching to get a feel for crowd size since participation will be key.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:22 am
Perry people coming by now. Red/maroon color, very young people…in good shape. Not TPAW beer drinkers like us.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:26 am
More boxes of peaches. I do not know why the Santorum people are here in the back lot loading up on peaches. I hope they are not going to attack us.
I love thier colors of Black/white with a red bird coming out of the “O”.
They look sharp.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:28 am
Smacks,
Look for the Paul folks to lay a bed of hot coals on the path to the voting booths.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:30 am
My money’s on Gary Johnson to win the Ames Straw Poll!!!! Go Gary!!!
Just kidding.
See ya in New Hampshire..
August 13th, 2011 at 10:32 am
Matt “MWS”
I’m at a disadvantage in where I’m sitting. We are in the back, where most of the other supporters for the other candidates are the front lot. We have seen a whole of Paul supporters even though they are set up front center.
I do not think I’m going to be a good source of information in regards of perceived candidates strength, but I will keep posting…telling youi what I think and see
Not much action on the water. No humidity. Smack gets the day off.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:34 am
Hey Smack and Anthony, thanks for the live updates…
August 13th, 2011 at 10:37 am
3 buses from Cedar Rapids just arrived. We have no idea if they were filled up. I will try to find out. TPAW went heavy in regards to resources in Cedar Rapids, Iowa city & Davenport (Romney Country “07″)
August 13th, 2011 at 10:42 am
I’m being moved for a little bit, but I will be back in about 30 minutes…that is what I have been told.
The smell of “Famous Dave’s” in the air has begun it’s invasion.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:44 am
FWIW, you all realize that an outsider to the American political system would look at the time, attention and import paid to the “Ames (Iowa) Straw Poll” 15 months prior to the Presidential election, and think we’ve all gone off our rocker.
And they wouldn’t necessarily be wrong.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:45 am
If you’re a Romney fan, you’ve got to be rooting hard for Michelle Bachmann to pull this out. In Thursdays debate, Michelle sent a message to the tea party: “I’m a fighter and I am going to fight for you.” They aren’t interested in the kind of “results” that Pawlenty is claiming. Also, if you need someone to fight off Rick Perry, its GOT to be Michelle Bachmann. She showed she was capable of standing up to a challenger and she will do the same to Rick Perry, picking apart his record. So go Michelle!!!
August 13th, 2011 at 10:47 am
#21 – I don’t agree. Its a test of organization, advertising and message. And it weeds out candidates. No one is going to argue that those who fail to survive were “the best and brightest.”
And while the general election is 25 mos. away, the IA caucus is just over 4 mos. away.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:49 am
David,
Indeed. Any sane foreigner would look at Ames, and how we go about picking the most powerful leader in the world in the midst of watermelon seed spitting contests, husband calling contests, big cows made of butter, and porkcycles, and wonder how the hell we got to be on top.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:49 am
I could care about the straw poll, but I am interested in Ron Paul’s meltdown and in Perry’s announcement. Did Perry really support Al Gore some years back? And now Perry says global warming is a “phony mess?” This takes flip-flopping to a new level.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:49 am
I am hearing that there are rumblings and speculation on the ground that Bachman’s migraines have worsened and that they may be at times, incapacitating her.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:50 am
AlGore = Global Warming. It was invented solely for his benefit. Perry has a LOT of explaining to do, as likeable as he is.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:50 am
Pablo,
I agree with you AND David. It’s goofy, and not completely rational, but it serves a purpose and just sort of….. works.
Kind of like monarchy.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:50 am
Bachmann did look unhappy at the debate. And she was gone on and off. But even so, she handled it beautifully.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:51 am
Liz,
In fairness to the truth (and I don’t like Perry) Al Gore was not about global warming while Perry supported him.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:53 am
So, migraines or not, Bachmann does NOT appear to be incapacitated. Fred Thompsom pretty much always seemed incapacitated. Even hospitalized Bachmann would probably generate more excitement than Thompson at L.A. Fitness.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:53 am
Bachmann showed up a half hour late for her scheduled turn on the soap box (apparently tardiness is normal for her), and she only spoke for 3 minutes of her alloted 20. She was then whisked away within minutes. A lot of people (including luke warm supporters) were pretty ticked.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:53 am
#23 – True, and I suppose my real issue is with the Iowa/NH duopoly that tends to define – if not select – our presidential candidates (I might throw SC into that same indictment.) I just think that any system that gives such weight to states that are socioeconomic outliers – ahead of the major population/electoral centers like FL,CA,NY,OH,PA etc. – is fundamentally flawed, and generally produces inferior presidents.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:54 am
Alright Matt. Democrat yesterday, Republican nominee today…..how’s that for flip-flop? And he wasn’t just a passive Democrat. He was actively promoting Al Gore. Do you find that interesting?
August 13th, 2011 at 10:56 am
“Bachmann showed up a half hour late for her scheduled turn on the soap box (apparently tardiness is normal for her), and she only spoke for 3 minutes of her alloted 20. She was then whisked away within minutes. A lot of people (including luke warm supporters) were pretty ticked.”
….and any ticked off supporters vote for WHOM, in protest?
August 13th, 2011 at 10:56 am
TPAW Iowa volunteers were told to vote first thing this morning so they would have the rest of the day to work. I can’t vote of course..being from Minny.
More people are showing up.
Either there is a whole lot of Paul supporters here already, or I’m seeing the same ones over and over again.
Getting nervous.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:57 am
So Michelle is late. Perhaps she was overwhelmed by the pressing crowd. She doesn’t blather on and on. Three minutes is pretty concise, I can respect that. Show me a professional medical opinion on the “incapacitation” assessment. I’m thinking Bachmann still gets more done in 30 minutes than Obama does in one term.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:57 am
David,
But there is real value in having small states go first (not that it has to be IA and NH). Candidates have to do the retail thing. They can’t just sit in an office buying TV ads. They have to get out, shake hands, talk to real voters, answer questions (except Michele), spit watermelon seeds, and rub elbows with the peasants (except Bachmann).
I think that is an invaluable part of the vetting process, and gives a chance to lesser known candidates who don’t enter the race with a bazillion dollars.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:58 am
#33 -
think what you’re asking for. Allowing the major states to go first would mean we were always stuck with candidates who cared mostly, if not only, about the economy. No talk of values, very little talk of foreign policy.
It would be a bad set up.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:58 am
Liz,
“Three minutes is pretty concise”
It is. Had she listed her accomplishments, it would have stretched to 3 minutes and 15 seconds.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:59 am
Liz,
“Alright Matt. Democrat yesterday, Republican nominee today…..how’s that for flip-flop?”
I’m not defending the guy, just telling you what happened. Besides, Mitt wasn’t a Republican at that time either.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:01 am
Smacks,
Paul probably has a lot of out of state volunteers. College doesn’t start for another 2-3 weeks.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:01 am
WOW!!!
A whole lot of Bachmann supporters just came by our tent.
They are having a great time.
I don’t even want to speculate how many there were…..but…
…HOLY SMOKE!!!!
August 13th, 2011 at 11:02 am
5 kids
23 foster kids
tax attorney
congresswoman
still standing and looking good
MWS, that right there puts most other candidates to shame.
BTW, why do you say Mitt wasn’t a republican? That’s an interesting statement.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:03 am
#40,
HA!
August 13th, 2011 at 11:04 am
If the anarchist Ron Paul takes the straw poll, I guess that kind of tells you the mood of the college crowd today. Yikes.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:04 am
Liz,
Mitt said, in one of his 94′ debates with Kennedy, that he was “an independent during the years of Reagan/Bush”. Famous quote. We’ve got the video and everything.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:04 am
The thing that Bachman has going for her is that her and her helpmate, Marcus, are viewed as a very powerful and competent team much in the same way as Newt and Callista are seen. If Bachman becomes incapacitated then Marcus can step in as a campaign surrogate and vice versa. She will be able to authentically sell their marital partnership as a co-presidency. As an aside, Bachman’s commentary on the Default issue has been spot on and pitch perfect, politically, this is what is causing her to rise in the polls.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:04 am
Liz,
“BTW, why do you say Mitt wasn’t a republican? That’s an interesting statement.”
Right. Not in the 80s, when Perry was a Democrat.
Surely you aren’t the last person in the world to see this?
August 13th, 2011 at 11:05 am
#38/Matt – I’ve thought about that. But why do we put such a premium on “retail” politics – what bearing does that have on one’s leadership skills?
In a sense, I guess I’m an establishment guy who believe in the “greasy pole” theory – that if someone has succeeded in politics enough to create a national name, wooing over the big moneymen who could fund a large-scale campaign along the way – they will be in a better position to actually succeed as president.
Americans love the underdog, but insurgents tend to make lousy presidents.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:07 am
“The thing that Bachman has going for her is that her and her helpmate, Marcus, are viewed as a very powerful and competent team much in the same way as Newt and Callista are seen.”
It is truly awesome having you around, Pruce. We don’t agree very often on this horse race talk, but you have such a…….. unique……… perspective on these things that I find endearing.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:08 am
David,
“what bearing does that have on one’s leadership skills?”
Theoretically, character and intellectual flaws should be harder to hide in such intimate and unscripted environs.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:09 am
MWS, I watched your 1.5 second video clip. And your point was……Not a believer in context, are you.
Being a democrat operative is different than playing independent for a while. I think, in their hearts, independents are conservatives anyways.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:10 am
#44 – So the old lady who lived in a shoe should have moved to the white house?
#48 – I don’t want a co-presidency, whether it be a powerful spouse or vice-president.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:10 am
I find something about Perry attractive. I find some of the “facts” coming out about Perry repulsive. If he wants to start the vetting process today, I’m very interested in combing out some of the flip-floppery.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:11 am
One reform I’d like to see is at least one debate that allows 5 minute responses. Sure, not as many people would watch, but the lightweights would completely burn up.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:12 am
#54 – LOL! That’s pretty good.
#48 – Then I’m sure you had no problem during Clinton’s first term when Hillary Clinton was a powerful first lady – indeed, sometimes called a “co-president,” right?
August 13th, 2011 at 11:13 am
The old woman who lived in a shoe was a tax attorney? She would definitely have done a better job than Bamsky, at any rate. I think the incompetence of the current administration has kind of rendered null and void the argument that any particular Republican candidate doesn’t have enough “experience” or isn’t qualified.
No co-presidencies. Yikes to that.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:14 am
#3 Matt MWS,
It will be near impossible because she doesn’t take questions from anyone, but try to ask Michelle why she keeps disappearing these past two days.
Better be careful here. She might hit him.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:16 am
I do think the successful raising of children shows judgment, self-sacrifice, a serious work ethic, compassion, and far-sightedness and good management. It is likely the most difficult undertaking in today’s world and if you are successful you are amongst an increasing but elite minority.
Mock parenthood if you will, but you are a hypocrite unless you made it on your own without any positive parental influence. Like Mowgli.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:17 am
You know, if Michelle Bachmann cannot handle a crowd like this, how will she be able to take on Obama one-on-one?
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/08/12/bachmann-speaks-for-three-minutes-heckled-by-gay-teen/
August 13th, 2011 at 11:17 am
Disappearing? Newt Gingrich runs off on cruises and who knows what else. There is some misogynistic mumbling going on here. Not complaining, just highlighting.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:18 am
#56, Again Matt MWS…
Excellent idea. I think people would watch because it would be more substantive. And, yes, the lightweights would burn up and that would probably include a good portion of the media, especially the carny barker types that depend on bumper sticker simplicity for their schtick.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:18 am
I doubt there are many candidates- ever- who could speak at such length, so intelligently, and without notes, as this guy. Yes, it’s a long and boring interview, but if you want a measure of the man’s intellect and knowledge, and are looking beyond the Carny Barkers, it’s worth a look.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:20 am
Anyone could take on Obama one on one. Be honest. I could do it while driving down the freeway, putting in a new CD, and trimming my bangs in the rearview mirror. Obama is comsumately vulnerable. One on one? He’s got n-o-t-h-i-n-g. Bachmann would likely be one of the more forceful opponents, one on one.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:21 am
Ahhh…finally a Huntsman supporter. What happened to your guy at the debate, MWS?
August 13th, 2011 at 11:21 am
Liz,
“The old woman who lived in a shoe was a tax attorney?”
There are 1.4 billion tax attorneys in this world.
“She would definitely have done a better job than Bamsky, at any rate.”
So would my 12 year old beagle, but I wouldn’t vote for it. I think we can do better than my 12 year old beagle.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:22 am
Liz,
Huntsman did fine. Not a stand out, but solid. It was a decent coming out, and he’s starting to establish his own space.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:22 am
Huntsman looked like he was suffering nausea or constipation with that look on his face during the entire debate. And he smacked of Obama’s empty style when he started each response with a forced pose and a booming, “I’m PROUD of my record.”
August 13th, 2011 at 11:23 am
Huntsman is better suited for the one on one debates like the general election where each candidate speaks for almost an hour total, rather than the circus debates where each candidate jockeys for the best one liner.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:24 am
Is your beagle as frugal as the shoe woman? Can he read and write? Is he raising 25 children, or perchance a practicing tax attorney? Not to urge continuing your losing line of argument.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:25 am
Liz, I do believe Bachmann is intelligent (tax law is hard) and competent and I agree good child-rearing is a tough task (heck, providing for even a couple kids is an economic task by itself). But the presidency is a whole different kind of beast. Running Exxon is not even comparable.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:25 am
Huntsman is better suited for local politics, if that. Why can’t he carry his own state, I wonder? After watching the debate, I don’t wonder.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:25 am
Chris,
Which candidates this year (including Palin and Perry in the consideration) do you think could handle a 5 minute format? Which do you think would not only survive, but thrive?
August 13th, 2011 at 11:26 am
PableZed 72: Finally, something I agree with. She does not have the requisite experience as compared to a Romney or even a Cain. No doubt about that.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:28 am
Liz,
“Why can’t he carry his own state, I wonder?”
He can. In fact, he was reelected with around 70% of the vote (how did Mitt do in his home state reelection?). He’s losing to Mitt right now in Utah because he’s not the front running Mormon. If he were, I’m sure he would be carrying Utah in the polls by a lot.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:28 am
I think the conservative candidate should be vetted at this point, have executive experience, and be a DOER as opposed to a thinker or pontificater (i.e. Gingrich or Paul). Romney’s the only game in town and he’s a mighty fine one at that. Let’s see if Perry can explain himself. I’m starting out as a doubter based on the bizarred factoids out there about him already.
Bachmann is beautiful and smart, but also like Ron Paul she is lots of talk and no results. Too bad.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:31 am
Matt, I think you’re wrong about the front-running “Mormon” thing. Many people in Utah consider Huntsman to be a MINO at best, and would not throw him the (what I think to be) the non-existent “Mormon” vote where supposedly several million people vote for a candidate based solely on their religion. Is that what keeps Harry Reid in office? Is that what got Bob Bennett out? Based on high-profile mormon-types today, I don’t think there is a one-size fits all Mormon out there. What i do know is that Huntsman’s religious afiliation is suspect to a lot of Utahns.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:32 am
MWS,
Nobody denies that Huntsman is a smart guy. But then, nobody denies that Romney- who’s positioned meaningfully to Huntsman’s right- is a smart guy. The Republican Party is more likely to go with D student Perry or Ms. Stand and Fight than either of them.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:32 am
Huntsman cannot carry the state of Utah. Not even if he assassinates Romney. I heard polls show Perry might not be able to carry his state against Barach Obama. That sounds hard to believe, but I would put a lot of weight on that were it true. You’ve got to win over your own people.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:34 am
Why Matt, because republicans are dumb? Why wouldn’t the Republican party pick a smart guy? I can’t follow your logic because you didn’t put any out there.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:34 am
That’s also the reason I had a problem with Mitch Daniels. If your wife can’t stand you….maybe she knows something we don’t.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:35 am
BTW, check out Rick Perry’s campaign Website. Not an impressive start (but I’m a Web snob.)
http://www.rickperry.org/
August 13th, 2011 at 11:35 am
Of course, she did come back to him. So maybe she just didn’t appreciate him until she tried something else, something worse. Likely.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:36 am
I like simple. All American colors. His make-up is a little heavy.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:36 am
Perry is kind of a rugged pretty boy Edwards style. Maybe if he had a 5 0′clock it might increase his authenticity.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:38 am
MEM,
“Romney- who’s positioned meaningfully to Huntsman’s right”
On certain issues, if you believe him. But even at face value, I’d consider Huntsman more conservative on right to life, the tax code, and foreign policy (where Hunts is a traditional conservative and Romney is a bit more of a neocon).
August 13th, 2011 at 11:38 am
Plus, it’s a dot-org, while the dot-com seems to be parked with a domain squatter. Couldn’t they have bought it out from the guy?
Again, a VERY unimpressive start, online.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:38 am
Mike & TPAW together on stage.
Many people watching.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:38 am
Liz,
Because intelligence is not an overriding concern for primary voters. It’s possible that Republican primary voters would prefer that Perry were more obviously intelligent but maybe not. Might be a sign that he’s a snooty know-it-all. Regardless, after Bush and McCain and the rise of Trump and Cain and Bachmann and Perry, I think it’s pretty clear that intelligence/knowledge is not a important asset for a majority of primary voters.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:39 am
Everytime I see Perry I think of the Obama ads in 2008 with Bush in the rearview mirror. “Look Behind You.” The resemblance is uncanny – and disturbing.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:39 am
Liz – I like simple too, but the call to action isn’t well-integrated, the social media channels aren’t properly highlighted, and it seems like brochureware.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:40 am
Liz,
“Why Matt”
Why what?
August 13th, 2011 at 11:42 am
MWS,
You may be right but it’s a perception thing. Romney, as much as he’s despised by the grassroots, would win a one-on-one matchup with Huntsman in a walk. Huntsman, relative to the electoral climate, is farther to the left rhetorically than McCain was in ’08 and much further to the left than Bush was in ’80.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:42 am
Smacks,
Where’s our update??????????
August 13th, 2011 at 11:45 am
“When we’re ready to announce …
you won’t be able to miss the announcement.”- Sarah Palin to ABC
August 13th, 2011 at 11:45 am
I was disappointed to hear Smack say earlier that the T-Paw volunteers were wearing green. The color has been co-opted by environmentalists and brings to mind T-Paw’s own past support for Cap and Trade. It also evokes memories of the green Carter/Mondale signs in 76. Very bad visual for T-Paw and his operation – he needs to channel Reagan triumphant not Carter minus the military service.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:46 am
What’s more the Perry Twitter/Facebook feed (linked on his campaign site) goes to his “official” gubernatorial Twitter/Facebook accounts. So there’s absolutely nothing about his announcement.
In the grand scheme of things not a huge misstep, but it suggests his campaign organization hasn’t really come together yet.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:47 am
#98 – David, perhaps they are waiting until he officially announces. T-minus 13 minutes.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:48 am
I may have just seen Anthony standing outside the coliseum on CSPAN with a green TPaw shirt.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:48 am
Well, this is exciting. I think I am rooting for a Rick Santorum victory today. Thought I would never say that. But he actually tried to force Bachmann to do basic math in her head at the end of the debate Thursday night.
And who is PabloZed that he would steal my name? Just kidding. I actually enjoy your comments, my friend.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:48 am
I really thought the Perry launch would be a “shock and awe” thing to quickly alter the dynamics of the race, but it looks like a soft launch instead.
Bad decision, IMHO.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:49 am
TEX,
Announce her decision, not necessarily her candidacy. Don’t get your hopes up.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:49 am
Pruce,
How many people do you think remember the Carter/Mondale signs from ’76?
August 13th, 2011 at 11:51 am
Hola Pablo. Thanks.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:51 am
David,
I’ve been saying over and over that there is no way a 13% non-Rock Star candidate is going to upstage the tradition, drama, and weirdness of Ames. The media have the rest of the year to talk about Perry. This weekend belongs to Ames.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:52 am
PabloZed – maybe, but why launch the official site before the speech, then?
But we’ll see. I actually think candidate Web sites and social media presence are greater windows to their ideas and prospects than most imagine…
August 13th, 2011 at 11:54 am
106 – Maybe, but I don’t get Perry’s launch strategy. Why at a speech today? It might’ve been better to wait until after Ames – even tomorrow – to quickly establish the race as a three-man field: Perry, Romney, and the Ames survivor (Bach/Pawl – putting Ron Paul out of the mix for the moment.)
August 13th, 2011 at 11:56 am
BTW, isn’t it odd that we have two candidates from TX, two from MN, two from GA, and two with strong Utah/Mormon ties?
August 13th, 2011 at 11:57 am
Huntsman is pretty liberal. He’s more Conservative than Obama, but just look at the guy.
I don’t know about you guys, but I can actually look at someone for a second or two and tell you whether they’re Conservative, liberal, or apathetic. I can do so with near 100% accuracy. I know it works because I sometimes joke around with the guys when we go to Celtics or Red Sox games. Someone will walk by, and I’ll tell them what political pursuasion they are. They almost always tell me I was right. My friends get a kick out of it.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:57 am
David,
Perry definitely should have waited until after Ames.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:58 am
109
Yes, true. Interesting.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:58 am
MassCon,
That’s interesting, because I’ve always had a knack for identifying phony charlatans just by looking at them……..
August 13th, 2011 at 11:59 am
Does Bachmann really have a petting zoo??
I hope that she finishes first.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
I’ve long contended that Intrade is worthless as a predictor until a few hours before results are officially coming out, because of leaks, etc…..
I don’t know if it’s starting to be accurate for Ames yet, though people can trade on what they empirically see there.
Bachmann is plummeting, now around 29% to win Ames. Paul is about 60%
August 13th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
I have been very busy.
This has turned into a carnival.
Having fun.
Cspan just put their camera right in front of me.
The TPAW tent is full.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:03 pm
Pablo, I would love to see Santorum win, followed by Cain, then Gingrich…that would really screw with Iowans. But that isn’t my prediction. I did predict that Pawlenty will come in 5th. I will probably be very wrong…
August 13th, 2011 at 12:04 pm
Anthony, better not approach Bachmann with any questions or you may end up in a dumpster.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:06 pm
From what I understand, Governor Perry intends to do a slow launch or graduated rollout. Speaker Gingrich was able to win several news cycles and garner a lot of media saturation over a two week period with this approach. The Perry team will perform a revised virtual front porch campaign whereby donors and bundlers come to him. Right now he is consolidating his grassroots and establishment support and poaching effective players from opposing camps. Perry has been known to be bold and he will employ an efficient and strategic pincer advance protecting his flanks and readying his siege.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
I actually am inclined to think Huntsman is a reasonably moderate (though probably not liberal) Republican. His record in Utah, sans the civil unions and cap and trade stuff, is fine. But it’s a record in Utah. And there are quite a number of stories out there that Huntsman effectively ended as a check on the “far-right” in Utah, triangulating between Republicans in the legislature and Democrats. In other words, he governed about as moderately as a Republican could govern in Utah without losing his base. So I don’t know that we can say with any certainty how he’d govern with a different political center of gravity. I’m not sure I’d prefer Huntsman to Romney, even if I could appoint someone and avoid what I think would be the inevitable backlash on the right of a Huntsman nomination.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:08 pm
“Many Strong America” people with their Organizational tee shirts are eating our “Famous Daves” food.
There is no way I can tell if we are doing good or bad.
I have no info…going to hook up with my buddy/source shortly.
Many people with TPAW shirts on.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
113
Real funny MWS. Thing is, I was director of Human Resources at a large Fortune 500 tech firm for 5 years. Before that, I had conducted hundreds of job interviews for them. I got them right. So if anyone can identify phonies, it’s me. And Mitt is certainly not a phony.
He is one of those people who knows how to “play the game” of an interview well. He knows how to look and sound good. But it doesn’t mean he ISN’T good. You can tell if someone is lazy, or disloyal by observing them carefully.
Anyway, here’s my basic personality analysis of some of the candidates:
Romney: Ambitious, driven, sharp, but loyal and true to the job at hand
Pawlenty: Nice, slightly passive-aggressive when you get to know him well, hard-working, and personable.
Huntsman: Liberal, intelligent, driven, devious, disloyal, bossy.
Perry: Cocky, condescending, perceptive, pursuasive.
Bachmann: Slightly insecure, smart, sharp, but often challenges herself a bit too much.
Paul: Loner, Set-in-his-ways, resists taking orders in a passive-aggressive way, yet nice when you talk to him, comforting.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
Not to pile on Perry, but his “why I’m running” statement is just awful. Starts off with a gratuitous (and poorly written) jibe at Obama, and stays negative for the first half.
http://www.rickperry.org/news/why-im-running/
I expected (and hoped for) better.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:19 pm
As unimpressed as I am by Perry, we could probably do worse than a Perry/Romney or Romney/Perry ticket in this climate. The jobs/economy ticket.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
Smacks,
I’ve got CSPAN on and DVR, when was it, and how can we identify you?
August 13th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
MassCon,
With your awesome skillz, I suppose we should just all defer to you in these elections.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
That said, this is an awfully underwhelming speech. You can see a few hints of charisma but…
August 13th, 2011 at 12:25 pm
Good Lord, look at that sweat on his face… shades of Nixon 1960. Ugh.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:27 pm
Watching Perry’s speech. He is pursuasive yet we should all know he’s just another Bush. His record on spending is worse than Bush’s, and Bush spent a TON of money in Washington.
Perry is the kind of guy who says one thing very well, and does another.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:29 pm
Anthony,
The interesting thing from a Pawlenty perspective is that the TPAW camp believes it will have an advantage in the last two hours of this Straw poll because of it shuttle system that will get Pawlenty voters in and out of Ames at the end, without getting stuck in the traffic and the grind of it all.
If TPAW is in range right now…then..we can pull this off. But it’s impossible for me to have a clue..because I’m just with TPAW voters…can’t see anything. I’m trying to hook up with my buddy to see if we are hitting our targets.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
Now TV viewers will be subjected to an infomercial for Iowa being first in the nation. How about, “We thought of it first. So there.”
August 13th, 2011 at 12:45 pm
MEM,
I think a triangulator is exactly what we need to balance the budget. It’s no accident that the only Prez in the last thousand years to balance the budget was a triangular.
Do you really think a Fire Eater who demands complete capitulation from the other side (like Bachmann) could get it done?
August 13th, 2011 at 12:46 pm
Perry’s message to Republican primary voters will be very concise and clear – “Do you want an America that looks more like Texas or more like Massachusetts?” While Mitt’s signature achievement was to mandate the purchase of health insurance, Perry added jobs, cut regulation, cut taxes and expanded personal freedom.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Is that Bob Hovic in the front row, wildly waving a Santorum sign?
August 13th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Smack,
Were you standing at a table, facing the camera, with a two color baseball cap? Middle aged?
August 13th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
Among former Democrats who have gone on to prominent roles in the Republican Party in recent decades: Strom Thurmond, John Connally, Phil Gramm, Zell Miller, and Ronald Reagan.
There probably are more, but those come to mind immediately. All conservatives, you might note.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
What time does the circus close today?
August 13th, 2011 at 12:55 pm
“Is that Bob Hovic in the front row, wildly waving a Santorum sign?”
No, I only moved as far as ‘not offensive’ on Thursday.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:59 pm
Matt “MWS”
Yes, but then again that describes about 5 other guys standing and sitting next to me. The camera was right in front of me. I have no idea what time it was…but it happened about 1 minute before I posted about it.
Am I a TV star now?
What’s happening? Do you guys know anything. There are green shirts all over the place but what does that mean.
I have been given no inside info on hitting targets. I can’t find my buddy and now I’m eating.
Any word on turnout?
August 13th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
My prediction for Ames: Ron Paul. And that would be a good thing for Perry.
August 13th, 2011 at 1:14 pm
Anthony,
“If he makes it farther in this race, MWS and other ardent pro-lifers, you might have a lot to like in this guy”
I like him on social issues. I don’t like him so much on foreign policy. But he actually lost a lot of hard core SoCon cred when he helped Specter defeat Toomey in 2004.
Still, if it came down to Santorum, Perry, Romney, and Bachmann, I’d vote Santorum.
August 13th, 2011 at 1:15 pm
MWS,
You may very well have seen me. I have my glasses and a Pawlenty shirt on, and I briefly stood in line in front of the C-SPAN van with my wife. Sound like who you saw?
August 13th, 2011 at 1:15 pm
” Ron Paul giving a great speech on right to life.”
Yes, one issue on which he is good. Unfortunately, his support for Gay Marriage (or more properly, taking away any government support for traditional unions), and his pro-drug positions render any point on which he might agree with the SoCon platform moot.
To say nothing of the fact that no man should be elected to the Presidency who does not believe the United States should do what it can to be a leader and advocate for democratic ideals in world affairs.
I can never bring myself to support a man who believes the best investment of society’s resources is to let people do whatever the hell they want, consequences be damned, so long as it does create an immediate harm to others.
August 13th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
Listing to Ron Paul right now, I am big on Right to Life issue. Ron Paul giving a great speech on right to life.
August 13th, 2011 at 1:32 pm
SMACK BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!
1. Smackdaddy is done eating.
2. Finally got info…..TPAW is hitting his targets everywhere. There is a great sense inside the tent that we pulled this baby off. The chatter is growing…….high fives are being done. TPAW is still working the phones…the buses are still running.
3. Cain will not defeat Santorum.
August 13th, 2011 at 1:37 pm
#145 – Does that mean turnout is less than Bachmann campaign predicted?
August 13th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
#143 (from me) is a reply to #144 (from JML)
I have no idea how it ended up above it
August 13th, 2011 at 1:43 pm
PabloZed,
Actually…we just received some real bad news.
The Overall Turnout is too high for TPAW.
We were just told again what Bachmann is expecting to get today.
TPAW can’t hit that number.
Suddenly the wind has been knocked out of us.
August 13th, 2011 at 1:44 pm
Ron Paul can own anyone on the abortion issue. He gave a great speech. The value of life….talking about babies, AND relating that to the life of our soldiers that we send to fight unconstitutional wars.
August 13th, 2011 at 1:45 pm
Perhaps Bachmann didn’t give her supporters shirts, but just based on what I’ve seen, it looks like we have more Pawlenty and Paul backers than Bachmannians here.
August 13th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Anthony,
We are hearing rumors about what the Bachmann team is expecting to get, how many tickets they have handed out…its too high number….
Bachmann believes 4200 – 4500.
Pawlenty hit his numbers…but he can’t hit that high a number.
The Bachmann team has no reason to lie about this…do they?
We were sky high one second because we heard that out ground game pulled it off, but then we heard Bachmann’s numbers.
Confused..tired…nervous.
August 13th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Question: What happens if straw poll results are too close?
Example:
Ron Paul 2260
Michelle Bachmann 2184
Tim Pawlenty 2107
Herman Cain 2005
Rick Santorum 1804
There really are no winners. A race that needs a shakeup.
August 13th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
I hate speeches like the one Steve King delivered. What the hell good does it do anyone to call for nonsense like Obama announcing he’s a one-term President?
August 13th, 2011 at 1:54 pm
INTRADE a jumpin’
Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw PollEvent: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
50.0%
chance
Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw PollEvent: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
35.1%
Tim Pawlenty to win 2011 Ames Straw PollEvent: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
10.0%
chance
August 13th, 2011 at 1:55 pm
T-Paw’s intro was pitch perfect. Many of his campaign ads have been a little off but that was great. Insiring, serious, and uplifting.
I don’t know if T-Paw can live up to his intro but so far, so good.
August 13th, 2011 at 1:57 pm
5 minutes later..
we could have a TIE:
Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw PollEvent: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
49.7%
chance
Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw PollEvent: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
48.8%
chance
Tim Pawlenty to win 2011 Ames Straw PollEvent: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
10.0%
chance
August 13th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
What’s wrong with T-Paw’s voice… Straining much? He’s giving himself a migraine.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:00 pm
I do see Intrade shifting alot this afternoon.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:00 pm
Pretty good speech from T-Paw. Maybe the best red-meat speech I’ve heard him give. Wouldn’t that be ironic? T-Paw learns to do red-meat the day his campaign effectively ends?
August 13th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
Sorry Smack, but don’t lose hope. I would not be too much stock in what Bachmann folks say vs what you see on the ground.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
#159,
Agreed. This is the best I’ve seen from T-Paw.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Of course I didn’t hear it…nice to hear he did well. Did he do the whole “It’s not easy” ending?
August 13th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
152.
Steven, no way T-Paw is that close to Michele’s total.
And Ron Paul’s number doesn’t matter since he has no chance on caucus night.
This is a Perry, Romney, Bachmann race in Iowa. Period. May the best woman win.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:05 pm
Anthony,
No, this was a crowd waiting to get inside the Coliseum.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:07 pm
#163,
Don’t know how it plays with Iowans but Michele walking off the stage when the hecklers showed up would be a deal killer for me. Mitt stood there and went toe-to-toe with them and impressed but if I was for Michele before, I’d be for TPaw now.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:08 pm
Given the high turnout reports, this could be the day that “effectively” ends the campaigns of both Pawlenty, Cain, and Gingrich. It doesn’t mean that one or more will not slog on a bit more as long as the money holds out. Hard to see how they retain viability, and none of them is really a “message” candidacy.
Tomorrow will be the beginning for many of their followers to find a new candidate.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:09 pm
Pawlenty 3rd place showing likely if the rumors are true. Of course, I can’t trust anyone to give the truth.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Funny, in this version of Michele’s biography, she didn’t mention that she went to law school because Marcus told her too, that she became a tax attorney because Marcus told her to, or that she went into politics because Marcus told her to.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:17 pm
Just based on the number of her supporters clamoring around the stage, she doesn’t seem to have as many as Pawlenty or Paul. Unless I just can’t tell because they don’t had special shirts, I really don’t know if the rumors seem true.
However, she did get a rather rousing reception just now.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Michele sounds just like Hillary with that high pitched monotone that is supposed to convey excitement.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:19 pm
Michele speaking now. Could there be any less substance in that white suit? Not much more there than a cheerleader.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:20 pm
She sounds exactly like Hillary in a stump speech. I never noticed that.
Bachmann kissing up to Iowa, since she knows she’ll never again be elected in Minnesota. But that’s all right, she’s gunning for a media career anyway.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:22 pm
Can someone explain to me the hatred many here have against Michele Bachmann???
August 13th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
I got the cutiest baby sitting on my lap.
The nerves have been calmed.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
Ozzy,
I’m a hard core SoCon, and I can’t stand her because she’s a Carny Barker. She grandstands. She isn’t interested in governing. She’s vapid, with speeches full of cliches. She values symbolism over substance, and she makes us all look stupid.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw PollEvent: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
44.0%
chance
Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw PollEvent: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
55.9%
chance
Tim Pawlenty to win 2011 Ames Straw PollEvent: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
6.0%
chance ..following his speach
August 13th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
I don’t understand why, months ago, Team Pawlenty couldn’t have quietly recruited a highish-profile primary challenger for Michele’s House seat, running on the line “Michele’s telling everyone in Iowa she’s from Iowa and she’s spending all her time in Iowa. Well let her stay there”. That would have complicated her bid. Surely Pawlenty, after two decades in Minnesota politics, has the pull for that? Much too late now.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
#173 – Ozzy,
I can’t speak for everyone, but I certainly don’t hate Bachmann, I just think she lacks the requisite experience to run for President of the United States. First of all, I think it takes a good deal of ego to run for the position in the first place, but it takes a heck of a lot of chutzpa to run for that position without even having a single legislative accomplishment. That makes me look at her run as more of a vanity run than the other candidates, and that gives me a bad impression of her overall.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:26 pm
*speech
August 13th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
Michele has those pale circles left by tanning goggles.
Why do politicians do that? It looks horrible.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
…and, what Matt said in #175. That encapsulated a lot of my feelings as well. Matt’s good at that, as Harry Reid once complimented his rhetorical skill, and Matt looked at Reid and simply said, “I have a gift.”
August 13th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
Her speech was horrible, just horrible. Carnival Barker is a perfect analogy. She may fall to third, and if she does, it’s over.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
WOW!
Bachmann/Huckabee ’12!
August 13th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Smack,
I know organization is key but T-Paw just helped himself greatly with that speech and intro. If anybody was on the fence, they likely will go to Tpaw.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Shane,
Right. And it’s not as though Michele is Ron Paul, essentially making a hopeless run to advance an important cause. Until the tea-party gave her disappearing career new life, Michele Bachmann was a so-con with apparently no concern or interest in fiscal issues. It’s insane- but clever I suppose- for her to pretend she’s some sort of wilderness preacher standing firm on fiscal issues for ages, in the same way that Paul has been. She saw an opening, fit herself in there, and then found a way to spin her lack of accomplishments and influence positively.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:32 pm
The building is now emptying on their way to vote MB
August 13th, 2011 at 2:33 pm
Matt,
What evidence do you have of this? I honestly think she like every other candidate in this race really wants to help our country in a way Obama has been unable. I’m willing to give her the same chance as everyone else running in this primary. That’s why we have a primary, so we can examine each candiadte and choose the proper nominee to face Obama. She has a right to earn a shot as much as evry other guy in this race.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
I like Bachmann’s speech. She sounded confident (she must have gotten some good news) and enthusiastic. Frankly, I was feeling a bit lackluster about the day and she provided an honest boost.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
Ozzy,
There’s no hatred at all. She’s just so completely unqualified to govern that the prospect of her election scares the crap out of me. !She has less management experience than Sarah Palin! She thinks that running a 2 office counseling business has taught her how to launch the economy in 90 days.
She’s all hat and no cattle. (Sorry, that goes better for the other guy.)
And what is it about shouting “I love you” repeatedly to the Ames crowd that should make her seem more qualified?
It is cynical that she thinks her resume remotely prepares her to lead this country. She is qualified only in the way that all activists think they are qualified.
We might as well elect Thaddeus McCotter.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
So what you all are saying is that the speeches I misses was a good one by TPAW…and not a good one by Bachmann?
My luck….I miss it.
The shuttle Buses are still coming in for TPAW.
But now I’m calm….I’m ok.
The rumors won’t stop about Bachmann getting over 4,000.
Rumors are rampant on the ground. Some people were saying that Michale Barone said this afternoon that TPAW might have pulled it off.
But the turnout is too high for TPAW.
Going to have a couple of beers tonight.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:38 pm
#185 – Mr. Miller,
Man, you guys are really hitting the nail on the head. It takes a certain….finesse…to be able to string together a series of legislative failures as real accomplishments, and that is just what she has done. She reminds me of the Knight in Monty Python who has been cut to bits, but continues to scream that she has won the fight. I can’t help but look at her as if she has lobsters coming out of her ears as she stands by a smoldering ruin and proudly announces, “I did that! Isn’t it awesome?”
August 13th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
Shane,
That explanation I can understand and appreciate more so than any other. Like I said, that’s the beauty of a primary. Is she is really as unqualified as you and some proclaimed, than it’s needs to be proven. She can’t be blame for trying everything she can to win. That is the goal for her. To show she should be the nominee. It’s the burden of her opponents to show why they are more qualified than her. IN the end, I’m confident our nominee will someone worth voting for more so than Obama.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
“Ron Paul, essentially making a hopeless run to advance an important cause.”
There are many things that could be said of Paul’s agenda.
Important is not one of them. Dangerous, Reckless, Libertarian, Irresponsible….but not important.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:42 pm
That Michele would fancy herself ready in some kind of vain delusion is not as disturbing as so many entranced followers of her cult offering. Are we really of so shallow a perspective that platitudes now pass for competence?
August 13th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
185.
Nice try.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:45 pm
Still Hurting,
If it is cause Bachmann is viewed as unqualified that she gets this venom? What about Cain. He has no legislation? No political experience? Why doesn’t he get bashed as much? No one is forcing anyone to vote for her. It’s up to her to provide and convince the voters why she should become POTUS.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:46 pm
Sounds like McCotter wrote his own prose. He should keep his day job. Why is HE running?
August 13th, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Shane,
It’s not even so much that she doesn’t have any bills to her name. Because there’s something to the argument that folks in the minority, which she was from ’06 to ’10, have difficulty passing bills. Fine. But Michele has been a failure even as a Republican and even when she’s been given responsibility. She was kicked off of leadership in the Minnesota Senate because she was a pain the butt, she’s been completely ostracized within the Republican caucus in the House, etc. It’s notable that even now, in the House, she can’t even get votes on her apparently preferred proposals. Ryan and co passed a budget (which wasn’t conservative enough for Michele), they passed Cut Cap and Balance (which wasn’t conservative enough for Michele), they passed Boehner’s first debt bill and then his second debt bill. Michele couldn’t even get a hearing. Pat Toomey is already, 6 months into his Senate career, more influential than Michele Bachmann and he is no less principled. She is politically clueless and would be the first President to be a flat irrelevancy.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:48 pm
Smacks,
The rumors might be coming from Team Bachmann, hoping to create a bandwagon effect or depress others.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:49 pm
Ozzie,
I support her right to campaign for the nomination. But it is just as much my right to offer resistance to that campaign.
As far as Cain and having no legislative experience, well, that would be a bigger issue if he were running for a position that legislates. But he’s running for an executive position on a resume filled with executive accomplishments.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:49 pm
Smack,
There is some rumors that Paul’s people are also talking about 4,000 votes.
We’ll see in a couple hours.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
By JONATHAN MARTIN | 8/13/11 2:57 PM EDT
A Bachmann campaign official, after being told that Ron Paul’s camp expects to hit 4,000 votes, says they gave out 4,000 tickets BEFORE 2PM.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61299.html#ixzz1UwMdrXyT
August 13th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
MEM,
I think Michele is hoping to follow in Sarah’s footsteps, and be a full time True Believin’ Celebrity (who is well compensated).
I don’t think it will work, however, as we already have one Sarah Palin, and when Michele completes her implosion, that will simply be the end of the line. She’ll go to wherever Alan Keyes is these days.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:58 pm
August 13th, 2011 at 2:58 pm
MWS, the good thing for Michele is that there are regular flights out of Minneapolis, unlike Anchorage.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:00 pm
#192 – Ozzy,
Very true. I’d crawl across broken glass soaked in lemon juice to vote for any of our candidates against Obama. Well, maybe not Newt.
#198 – Matt Miller,
That is also a valid argument. Simply proposing legislation that does not pass *can* be accepted (to a degree) when in the minority. However, she should have at least been able to work with (D)s and help craft legislation that ultimately did pass. And it doesn’t speak well to her compromising abilities when she can’t even do anything meaningful in a tea party-infused House today. And leadership does not mean simply saying “no” to everything that comes across the table because it does not meet 100% of your objectives. At this point, I’m not even sure a bill she crafted herself would be “pure” enough for her to vote for.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:00 pm
There’s only one Sarah Palin. Thank God.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
Still Hurting,
Thanks for the report.
This is what we have heard a couple hours ago here on the ground. Where I’m at we can’t see Bachmann & Paul’s activity’s.
The CW seems to be that TPAW hit his number,but Paul & Bachmann ran through them.
I will save my congratulations until the votes have been counted, but I don’t think these camps would be spreading these numbers around if they weren’t true…or close to be being true…it would be too stupid to be so off.
The TPAW camp is no where near 4,000…trust me on that. That number was not even a goal.
Can’t get a read anymore on what the TPAW camp is thinking right now. People have come back to the tent after TPAW’s speech and are very happy.
So at least we have that.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:06 pm
Smacks,
No matter what happens, I hope you keep coming back. You’ve become one of the favorites, here, I think.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:09 pm
How can anyone vote for someone that supports the US defaulting….
August 13th, 2011 at 3:11 pm
Smack, I agree – no matter what, I hope you know you are welcome and a valued part of this community!
Can you fill us in on some of those internal goals that T-Paw’s campaign had as far as vote numbers you were aiming for?
August 13th, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Matt “MWS”
Thank you sir.
As I was sitting here pouting, my buddy told me that the TPAW camp has bought over 4,000 tickets as well and has handed them out over the last 3 months. He told me we are in good shape. We got our votes in early and we will be the ones getting them in late.
He made me feel better. There sure seem like alot of green shirts around here. I understand Anthony’s confusion.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:13 pm
I echo MWS’ sentiments above. I rarely post, but I read this site every day and have been coming here since its incarnation as Race42008, and I hope smack will continue to post no matter the result. I didn’t like it when Craig left for a while, but am glad to see him back and posting, too (despite the fact that I think he has traded down precipitously on candidates to support since 2008. I mean from Huck to Bach? What happened to you, man?!)
August 13th, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Hearing 13,000 votes cast with an hour to go. Bachmann has run out of tickets again and has to go buy more. Perry is going to have to spend a lot of capitol to dispatch her.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:15 pm
How can anyone vote for RuPaul?
August 13th, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Smack, ditto for me as well. Don’t go pull a Craig and disappear for two months. Hang around and snark about the other candidates until you find a new favorite.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:16 pm
Matt C,
2800 votes out of a total of 12,300.
TPAW hit his number…but overall turnout too high for TPAW. TPAW turn- out rate was very good today, within his universe of voters…..but…well.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:21 pm
Ironically, sounds like shades of Obama 2008. Clinton and Edwards said they were hitting their targets, but the Obama turnout overwhelmed them.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:22 pm
Per @benpolitico, Bachmann has now given away over 6K tix #ames. Not saying all of those voted, or even voted for her.
Also, Pawlenty has run out of BBQ and DQ. Ground game exceeded expectations or lots of them came back for seconds.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
LOL – Sounds like a BBQ and DQ deficit.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:29 pm
We ran out of Famous Dave’s. We had so many people eat our food, so many in our tent.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:29 pm
I like smacks too.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:29 pm
It may take Smacks two months to find another candidate. Lots and lots of studying to find a #2, #3, and even a #4 like my Mitt
But one will never find one as good as their first.
That’s a fact.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:30 pm
Maybe Smacks could apprentice for MWS.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:33 pm
Huck and his campaign staff (YOU KNOW WHO) would have dominated this straw poll. Period.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:34 pm
MWS has fallen into the Rombot camp. God help us all.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:39 pm
I think snarking about all the REPUBLICAN candidates when you don’t even have one of your own in the race is so TEX-like aka trolling.
And thus weak and boring.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:40 pm
If Bachmann wins 6200, Ron Paul 4700, and then 3rd place is 2800, the rest of the field should just drop out (Cain, Gingrich, Santorum, Johnson, Huntsman Jr) and Pawlenty should follow suit.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
The Final Four will be in alphabetical order: Bachmann, Paul, Perry, and Romney.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:46 pm
Well said, Craig 226. In fact, don’t just pick one candidate. Why not hedge your bet and pick 4 or 5.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
Craig,
“MWS has fallen into the Rombot camp. ”
No, sir. Perhaps if it comes down to Mitt, Perry, and Michele. If that’s the case, God help us all.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
Romney, establishment
Perry, establishment/Tea Party
Bachmann, Tea Party
Ron Paul, Tea Party/Libertarian
August 13th, 2011 at 3:51 pm
Steven S,
Huntsman is bypassing Iowa and Ames. That may or may not be wise, but it means he gets a pass today. He’s staking everything in New Hampshire, which conveniently doesn’t have a big, insane straw poll.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:52 pm
Anyone have a link to watch Fox News Channel online?
August 13th, 2011 at 3:54 pm
Matt,
We await you with arms outstretched. Sure, you’ll have to serve some pennance for your wayward days. But, then, we will embrace you like a brother.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:56 pm
#220:
How did you run out of pork in Iowa?
Maybe the Huckabees were there….all the Huck supporters famously took a Romney bus, ate Romney food, then voted for the Huckster last time. Maybe that crew has shown up again and cleaned out the TPaw booth.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:58 pm
Heading out tomorrow.
Going back home.
Miss my wife and my dog.
This has been a blast.
Started my Iowa/vlounteering career with Jack Kemp…as we lost to Pat Robertson.
Now I end my Iowa/volunteering career with my TPAW losing to Bachmann.
The more things change, the more they stay they same.
Good night you all.
Congrats to Michele Bachmann & Ron Paul.
Congrats to you as well Rick Santorum for fighting the good fight on the ground.
Great job Governor Pawlenty.
As one door closes, another door opens.
Minnesota!
Minnesota!
I’m coming home!
August 13th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Still,
I’m well acquainted with penance, but where I come from, contrition is a prerequisite. I’m not sure I’m there yet.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Howdy all. Sorry to my Pawlenty-ite friends but the crowd on C-Span at the Pawlenty camp is not looking good. I really hope he does well today, but it looks like it just ain’t going to happen. Darn shame.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Smacks,
Minnesota is prettier than Iowa anyway…..
August 13th, 2011 at 4:03 pm
Smack,
What do you think the result is?
And, have a safe journey home. Thanks for keeping us apprised of the events.
I thought T-Paw had his best speech ever today!
August 13th, 2011 at 4:04 pm
From all of us, a respectful and well-earned round of applause for Smack and TPaw.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:05 pm
241.
Absolutely. Good fight Pawlenty.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:06 pm
Matt,
While you’re working on the contrition part, you can do your pennance by making a small donation to Romney For President. Then, all is forgiven.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:07 pm
#241:
Amen to that. Also, a big thanks to Anthony Dalke as well for giving us an on the ground look.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:10 pm
Matt,
If it comes down to those three, you could also say, God help Obama.
Each of those three are pretty good attack dogs.
None of them are a Huckabee but all are almost there with the potential to get there.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:11 pm
Still,
If TPaw doesn’t pull off a miracle tonight, I’ll be making my first donation to………..
Huntsman.
Hope springs eternal.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:18 pm
Pretty simple.
If the economy gets worse, any one of our BIG-3 beat Obama.
If it gets better, Obama wins another term.
Then we become Race42016 real real real fast!
August 13th, 2011 at 4:23 pm
Matt, do you know much about St. Jude?
August 13th, 2011 at 4:26 pm
Huntsman is like a pebble in Mitt’s loafer. Nothing more. Perry will be like a broken foot for Mitt as he hobbles in NH and SC.
Perry needs to win NH or come in a solid 2nd OR he’s toast after Michele beats him in IA
August 13th, 2011 at 4:27 pm
Still Hurting,
When I came into the Catholic faith in the Easter Vigil 1995, I took as my patron saint, my confirmation name, St. Jude.
For good reason too…….
August 13th, 2011 at 4:29 pm
Evidently.
Well, good luck with Jon. The former offer still stands. We’ll take you when you’re ready.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:29 pm
“O most holy apostle, Saint Jude, faithful servant and friend of Jesus, the Church honoureth and invoketh thee universally, as the patron of hopeless cases, and of things almost despaired of. Pray for me, who am so miserable. Make use, I implore thee, of that particular privilege accorded to thee, to bring visible and speedy help where help was almost despaired of. Come to mine assistance in this great need, that I may receive the consolation and succor of Heaven in all my necessities, tribulations, and sufferings, particularly (here make your request) and that I may praise God with thee and all the elect throughout eternity. I promise thee, O blessed Jude, to be ever mindful of this great favour, to always honour thee as my special and powerful patron, and to gratefully encourage devotion to thee.
Amen.”
August 13th, 2011 at 4:30 pm
“While you’re working on the contrition part, you can do your pennance by making a small donation to Romney For President. Then, all is forgiven.”
Selling indulgences caused a spot of bother back in the 16th century as I recall.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:30 pm
Smack,
What happened to your vows that Pawlenty would draw at least 4,000 votes? That’s why people said to not set expectations too high.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:35 pm
Anthony,
I must have said that when I was drunk.
One of TPAW staffers just came by and said we did a great job and added that we accomplished something big tonight.
I have no idea what that means but he was a happy camper.
Maybe he is paid to be happy.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:38 pm
Can I be paid to be happy?
August 13th, 2011 at 4:39 pm
Bob,
While the churches have largely moved on, at least in blatant cases, from selling indulgences, it is still considered high art in politics, to be admired not looked down upon.
And besides, it is not so much the money that is important, not to say that it is completely unimportant, but it is the saving of a lost and forlorn soul. Really. No I mean REALLY, that is all I’m concerned about here.
August 13th, 2011 at 5:03 pm
Perry will now scoop up the newly unemployed MASSIVE T-Paw organization. But are they really that good or tainted after this?
Nothing against his volunteers, of course.
August 13th, 2011 at 5:38 pm
He’ll be able to continue on by just meeting expectations and hope people think about electability in the fall. If Romney finishes fourth, not good. Pawlenty will for sure lose his financial backing and will have to bootstrap from here on out.
August 13th, 2011 at 5:40 pm
Pawlenty will drop out if the numbers rumored here are correct.
August 13th, 2011 at 5:42 pm
Bachmann won, as predicted
August 13th, 2011 at 5:42 pm
Pawlenty is done
August 13th, 2011 at 8:15 pm
Go Ron!
August 13th, 2011 at 10:01 pm
Smack- I read this site every day and you are definitely one of my favorite posters. You were always upbeat about your candidate and rarely mean spirited in your critiques of the others. THANK YOU for that. Pawlenty has been my second/third choice since the end of 2008. I wouldn’t give up hope, yet, just remember John McCain and his collapse in the summer 2007. Everyone left him for dead and he barely placed at Ames. Maybe this will allow for a restructure of his campaign, team, & strategy. If he continues, he will quickly become the underdog. Perry & Bachmann are going to spend alot of money tearing each other apart, and well, the shine might tarnish rather quickly. And well, as the saying goes, America loves a comeback story. I look forward to reading your thoughts as the race continues.