PPP (D) 2012 Michigan GOP Primary Survey
- Mitt Romney 25% (26%) {22%} [30%] (37%)
- Rick Perry 13%
- Michele Bachmann 12%
- Sarah Palin 12% (14%) {18%} [17%] (24%)
- Herman Cain 7%
- Ron Paul 6% (7%) {10%} [8%] (6%)
- Newt Gingrich 6% (16%) {15%} [16%] (16%)
- Thad McCotter 5%
- Tim Pawlenty 3% (3%) {3%}
- Someone else/Undecided 11% (10%) {7%}
If Sarah Palin doesn’t run
- Mitt Romney 24%
- Michele Bachmann 18%
- Rick Perry 14%
- Herman Cain 7%
- Newt Gingrich 7%
- Ron Paul 6%
- Thad McCotter 5%
- Tim Pawlenty 4%
- Someone else/Undecided 17%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Sarah Palin 64% (64%) {64%} / 24% (28%) {28%} {+40%}
- Mitt Romney 61% (66%) {66%} / 23% (20%) {18%} {+38%}
- Michele Bachmann 51% / 22% {+29%}
- Rick Perry 40% / 13% {+27%}
- Herman Cain 37% / 14% {+23%}
- Thad McCotter 20% / 19% {+1%}
Survey of 400 usual Michigan Republican primary voters was conducted July 21-24, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 43% (38%) Somewhat conservative; 34% (40%) Very conservative; 20% (16%) Moderate; 2% (3%) Somewhat liberal; 1% (2%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted March 18-20, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 3-6, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 17-19, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 25-27, 2010 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.
August 9th, 2011 at 4:38 pm
She’s on top in every state
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
Sarah Palin 64% (64%) {64%} / 24% (28%) {28%} {+40%}
Mitt Romney 61% (66%) {66%} / 23% (20%) {18%} {+38%}
Michele Bachmann 51% / 22% {+29%}
Rick Perry 40% / 13% {+27%}
Herman Cain 37% / 14% {+23%}
Thad McCotter 20% / 19% {+1%}
so much for ‘unelectable’
Just wait until she starts campaigning.
Cakewalk
August 9th, 2011 at 4:41 pm
I thought you said these polls don’t matter? Nothing like cherry picking…
* Mitt Romney 25% (26%) {22%} [30%] (37%)
* Rick Perry 13%
* Michele Bachmann 12%
* Sarah Palin 12% (14%) {18%} [17%] (24%)
* Herman Cain 7%
* Ron Paul 6% (7%) {10%} [8%] (6%)
* Newt Gingrich 6% (16%) {15%} [16%] (16%)
* Thad McCotter 5%
* Tim Pawlenty 3% (3%) {3%}
* Someone else/Undecided 11% (10%) {7%}
Romney will take Michigan, no question about.
August 9th, 2011 at 4:41 pm
Palin has consistently held the highest favorability ratings among the republican candidates.
Now the ‘Unfavs’ are dropping, as people learn the truth of her record.
Given her natural political talents campaigning, I see these numbers continuing to improve.
August 9th, 2011 at 4:43 pm
Yes Thunder, Mitten$ is the ‘front runner’…weak as he is.
Your coronation is going to be interrupted. Sorry.
August 9th, 2011 at 4:44 pm
Mitt probably will take Michigan.
But 25 is long way off from the 38 he got last time.
August 9th, 2011 at 4:45 pm
I have to say this about Pawlenty…the dude is consistent.
Whoever named him 3-Paw was very prescient.
August 9th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
# teledude Says:
August 9th, 2011 at 4:43 pm
Yes Thunder, Mitten$ is the ‘front runner’…weak as he is.
Your coronation is going to be interrupted. Sorry.
==================================
If you think that Palin is getting anywhere the nomination your fooling yourselves. If Palin throws her hat in the ring, your approval rating will drop like a rock. The reason her approval rating is up because she isn’t a candidate and therefore no reason to disprove of her.
Second Palin has not been vetted since she is not running.
August 9th, 2011 at 4:50 pm
Palin is the most vetted candidate in the race.
They have dug through every piece of garbage they can find in Alaska, including releasing over 24,000 emails from her time as Governor.
That blew up in their face, as they showed nothing but a hard working conscientious public servant.
You need not bash Palin to prop up your guy. Try that for a change of tactic.
Your left wing talking points on Palin are starting to reflect poorly on you dude.
August 9th, 2011 at 4:52 pm
teledude Says:
August 9th, 2011 at 4:50 pm
Palin is the most vetted candidate in the race.
================================================
She was vetted by Democcrats as a VP candidate (and did poorly). Running for the nomination is a different thing. Republicans have a whole different critieria for nominating someone. First hurdle she will have to get over is why she quit as governor, second, she will have to answer for her part in TrooperGate which the republicans covered up when she became the VP Nominee.
August 9th, 2011 at 4:55 pm
tele -
I have no doubt that Palin has high favorable #s with the Repub base. No suprise at all. But as I stated in an earlier thread – she is of the far right type of candidate that will be uncapable of bringing in enough of the moderate states because when you add in the center leaning leftists, the indies, and the moderates – her favorables are driven down hard.
This country is right of center – not hard right. If we want control of the White House we need somebody that will connect with the country as a whole – otherwise we get the reverse of what is going on now with a gridlock among Congress and the WH due to overreaching and overbearing philosophies of one far end of the political spectrum.
Let Palin take and keep a governorship of a hard right state where she won’t have to do such battle w/ the state legislature causing her to get weak in the knees and run away with her tail between her legs. She would be much more effective that way.
August 9th, 2011 at 4:56 pm
Trying my best to be objective here – it’s hard to see how Palin makes a go of it now. Mitt has been running since 2004. He’s got an advantage in money and infrastructure. Perry is amping up his PACs and his Iowa connections and he’s going to jump in this weekend. He has connections to the RGA that will help him out monetarily too.
Pawlenty thinks he can but it remains to be seen whether he can generate enthusiasm. The deck is stacked against him at this point.
But what of Palin? What has she been doing? We’re less than a month away from Labor Day…and nothing.
It’s hard to see how Palin mounts a serious effort at this point.
August 9th, 2011 at 4:57 pm
Smiling!!
August 9th, 2011 at 4:59 pm
•Sarah Palin 12% (14%) {18%} [17%] (24%)
Trend?
August 9th, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Ben, you are not listening to me.
She is NOT the hard right wing ideologue she has been portrayed to be. That is a false narrative.
She is a very pragmatic leader who forged many many coalitions with democrats in the Alaska legislature to get her agenda passed (partly because she had sent a large segment of the established GOP to jail for corruption)
Your perception of her is 180 degrees out of phase.
I am just here to help.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:00 pm
Palin should take her favorables and shove them into an Oprah type network talk show
August 9th, 2011 at 5:01 pm
tele,
If you are right and she is not the hard right ideologue that she is portrayed to be – then what is she doing to combat that image?
Time’s a-wastin’.
She needs to jump in. She needs to campaign. You know who decides elections? Old white people. And most of them don’t care about Facebook.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:02 pm
you and TEX have constantly painted her as the “bull in a china shop” kind of person with her “cleansing” of the party in Alaska and how she would stand hard for all of the true conservative values better than anybody available.
I’m listening to you just fine.
Now if you want to change the story mid stream – go ahead – but as far as i know that is all that those of us here on RACE have heard out of the 2 of you (4 if you count Franklin and TC) for the last number of months.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:03 pm
We’re just here to help you, Telly.
..like an intervention which I’m sure you’re quite familiar with.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:03 pm
Be serious, guys. You can’t really believe Palin is going to run at this late date. She’s about as viable as Pataki. Also, # 5 Sojourner. You would notice Romney got 26 % last time, without Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann and Herman Cain.Not bad to add three more candidates and lose 1 %
CraigS
August 9th, 2011 at 5:04 pm
Does the term – beat them with a nightstick mean something different to you than it does to me? That sounds like a hard liner with a bully pulpit mentality to me. But maybe that is just TEX.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:04 pm
Reagan announced in November.
Clinton announced in October.
In today’s world of instant communication, 24/7 cable news outlets, and social networking, Facebook, you tube, Twitter…there is no need for a two year campaign.
How’s that working for Tim Pawlenty..or Mitt Romney for that matter…hes only in the low 20′s in every poll. That’s why he decided to lay low for the summer….
This thing needs a shake up.
One is coming.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:05 pm
20. he is talking about margins of victory in a political contest.
How dumb are you?
August 9th, 2011 at 5:06 pm
Craig,
Not last time as in the last poll. Last time as in the last actual result in the MI primary of 2008.
It’s just one poll and yadda yadda – but it will be interesting to see if Romney can match or exceed his 2008 total. After all, this time his opponents are going to be evangelical Bachmann, Southern Perry and 2-Paw. It should be easier for him to rack up his numbers this go around without Giuliani or McCain.
It’s just one poll. We’ll see what happens.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:06 pm
Her “cleansing of the party” was just a reflection of her honesty and unwillingness to go along with the establishment GOP in screwing the taxpayers of Alaska.
Had zero to do with ideology.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:08 pm
Michigan Independents:
Romney 48/34
Cain 19/26
Perry 17/27
Bachmann 26/39
Palin 40/52
Democrats:
Bachmann 21/61
Romney 17/66
Cain 8/43
Perry 5/51
Palin 10/85
That should help out
August 9th, 2011 at 5:08 pm
Can anybody other than the hardcore Palinistas on here (TEX, tele, Franklin, TC) tell me I’m wrong about how these 4 have painted Palin as being a hard core ultra conservative that will cleanse the party and take a staunch stance if elected?
If I’m wrong then I’ll back down from the very image that I think tele & TEX specifically have been feeding us for months.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:08 pm
23. Actually Romney looks to be under performing 2008 in every state.
Not a good sign…but maybe people know him better now.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:11 pm
Michelle Obama’s national favorables are equal to Palin’s Republican ones. (Palin’s national favorables are in the toilet, of course.)
So should Mrs. Obama run for president in 2016?
Lady Gaga has higher favorables than Palin, too.
President Gaga, anyone?
August 9th, 2011 at 5:13 pm
Ben, I think you are confusing her strong resolve as some type of ideological stance.
She is very courageous, which is one huge difference with Romney, and she is more conservative than he is as well, but she is not some extreme right wing crazy.
that’s Michele Bachmann.
Bachmann is in reality what liberals think Palin is…but she’s not like that at all.
Her record in Alaska was one of pragmatic governance. She did what it took to get her agenda implemented. That often required working with the other side of the isle.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:14 pm
Anyone other than tele?
August 9th, 2011 at 5:21 pm
crickets……………………….
August 9th, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Ben — It’s dangerousto wake up sleepwalers.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:26 pm
32. good description of Palin detractors. Mindless zombies works too.
Obviously no thinking going on.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:39 pm
the point is tele – that you and TEX and the other Palinistas have painted the very picture of Palin that you so adamantly say is wrong and you fight against.
Very counter productive.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:51 pm
34. When have I painted a picture of a right wing ideologue?
the answer. Never.
In fact national surveys show her views are in line with the vast majority of Americans, who are center/right in ideology. (it’s something like 60 or 70% agree with her stance on issues)
the attempt to portray her as some type of wild eyed ideologue is a left wing distortion aimed at creating hatred among the groupthink morons in the democrat party… Sadly, some of the dimmer bulbs on our side get caught up in it as well.
August 9th, 2011 at 5:53 pm
Poor Palin. I don’t think she is being done any favors here. The opposite, so much in fact, I almost wonder if it is really reverse psychology.
Tex? Teledude?
August 9th, 2011 at 5:55 pm
I suppose you think all the Rombots bashing Palin and her supporters helps him in some way?
August 9th, 2011 at 6:01 pm
You can curse the messenger of the message or you can change the narrative for your purposes of persuasion.
I am telling you that the way that you and the other Palinistas come across (MOST ESPECIALLY TEX) – you help solidify the image of being over the top idealogues. TEX’s constant ranting about how nobody is worthy of the night fox, mama bear, night stick weilding gladiatrix, and how she is gonna clean the floor with every other liberal RINO that is running for president, when most of those running for president to the average spectator would be seen as being conservative in their own right.
Is any of this ringing a bell tele?
Everybody is a moderate liberal and Sarah is the only conservative is the easy way to paint her as an ultra right wing nut.
And that is from you and your fellow supporters. not from the anti-Palin folk.
August 9th, 2011 at 6:03 pm
Rombots,
What’s mr #47 doing lately,besides keeping his finger in the wind?
How’s mr #50 doing lately?Running scared,frighten to take a stand
on anything before the outcome is known?
The Libs call mr Obamnycare a weirdo,I don’t.
I go easy on mr ObamnyCare,I call him the proud member of CCCC -
Corrupt CRONY Capitalism Club.
It looks like Chicago Thugs are reading my posts on this site,they
are already making jokes about Willard’s CCCC membership.
August 9th, 2011 at 6:05 pm
Right on cue TEX -
bless your beautiful heart.
August 9th, 2011 at 6:26 pm
This poll highlights well the reason that I don’t pay much attention to “Favorables”. In poll after poll after poll, Sarah Palin has very high favorables among Republicans. Hey, I, myself think quite favorably of her. But do I think she is ready for the Oval Office? No. Do I think there are others in the race who are better prepared and would do a better job than she in the White House? Yes.
And in poll after poll after poll, we can see where the vast majority of Republicans agree with my assessment. It is NOT bashing Palin, nor is it hating her to think that she simply is not as ready to be the Chief Executive of the United States as others in the race.
August 9th, 2011 at 6:27 pm
Tele,
You and Franklin are doing great job of telling us the facts about Governor
Palin stellar record and her great accomplishments,some of them really
spectacular,achievements that no governors have ever done,anywhere at any
time.
But trying to have normal conversation with some nasty Rombots,it’s a total waste of time.
August 9th, 2011 at 6:40 pm
“no governors have ever done,anywhere at any
time.” – TEX
===
Like quit on those who elected her governor after 30 months.
Yep, she’s probably the ONLY ONE in the history of America to give up so soon.
Clap…Clap…Clap
August 9th, 2011 at 6:41 pm
“I hate this job” – Governor Sarah Palin
August 9th, 2011 at 6:42 pm
“I love Dancing With the Stars” – Civilian Sarah Palin
August 9th, 2011 at 6:44 pm
“I voted for Governor Mike Huckabee in the 2008 Alaska primary” – Sarah
August 9th, 2011 at 6:48 pm
marK,
What is the record of flip-flopping,finger in the wind Willard Rockefeller
Romney?
Lousy,mediocre at best!!!
#47,#50,ObamnyCare…..LBOs……
Is this bashing of a man who still doesn’t know who he is,who never had any
convictions,never had any core beliefs,was liberal going left of Ted Kennedy,
anti Reagan,moderate when it was convenient,”conservative” when running for
republican nomination and now Global warming disciple?
No,it’s not bashing,it’s “just the facts ma’me” about Willard,the worst
possible candidate,the very worst of them all.
Good thing Sarahcuda got him on her scope,she will do to him what she did
to that big halibut in Alaska.
Here’s just the taste of what’s coming like Arctic Hurricane:
http://flapsblog.com/2011/08/03/president-2012-video-sarah-palin-rips-mitt-romney-over-finger-in-the-wind-position-on-debt-limit-deal/
No,it’s just ,
August 9th, 2011 at 6:48 pm
#14….Telly, tell that to TEX…
August 9th, 2011 at 6:58 pm
Like quit on those who elected her governor after 30 months.
Yep, she’s probably the ONLY ONE in the history of America to give up so soon.
Clap…Clap…Clap
======================================
We know you can just take $600,000 or more out of petty cash just like a typical chicken hawk. The fault is in the ethics process that was used in Alaska as a political weapon. The state has pretty much admitted this by changing the law to prevent what happened to Palin from happening again.
August 9th, 2011 at 6:59 pm
Craig For Losers,
Talk to me about liberal preacher from possum infested Arkansas and his
numbers.You are poll freak,what are his numbers lately?
Oh,he wimped out before he started,HE QUIT and made you stay in pitch dark
basement for over two months.
I’m glad to see you back,disturbed and confused but it sure beats rubber room.
August 9th, 2011 at 7:11 pm
#39 TEX…..That’s right……Make Obama and Axelrod proud…You might find a job in Obama’s administration #2….Just hope they don’t send you to Chicago.
August 9th, 2011 at 7:13 pm
Again Romney is running below his 2008 total. Not good news for Romney. Palin is tied with Bachmann who is running and 1 point behind Perry who most people think is running while only around 23% think she is running. Again shows that she brings in a level of support. Not good news for Perry or Bachmann.
August 9th, 2011 at 7:14 pm
“what are Huck’s numbers?” – FROGGY TEX OF FRANCE
10 1/2 year Governor Mike Huckabee:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/03/fav-huckabee_n_725761.html
August 9th, 2011 at 7:16 pm
The 30 months and “I hate this job”, Sarahquitta of the Arctic:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/13/fav-palin_n_725513.html
August 9th, 2011 at 7:20 pm
Earth to Frankie,
You gal dropped from 24 to 12!
August 9th, 2011 at 7:21 pm
•Sarah Palin 12% (24%)
August 9th, 2011 at 7:23 pm
56. TEX is better when I paint him a picture. It’s a language barrier. Sometimes his translator is low on batteries.
August 9th, 2011 at 7:27 pm
Craig For Losers,
I and true conservatives never waste our time reading Soros-Alinsky rag
Huff-Puff Post.
You seem to take all your talking points from there,maybe you should stay there,you would have more fun.
You know,”birds of…………..”
August 9th, 2011 at 7:29 pm
Well frankie, it’s not like John Coale (greta van Sustran’s hubby) did not set her up with her very own ‘defense’ fund…
August 9th, 2011 at 7:41 pm
Craig For Losers,
“You gal dropped from 24 to 12!”
===================================
Liberal preacher dropped from 24 to BIG 0 !!!
The lousy bass guitar player wimped out,QUIT!!!
He QUIT before the battle,before the first shot.
What do you think of that?!How do you feel about liberal QUITTER from
Arkansas who betrayed his fans,wimped out and QUIT???!!!
August 9th, 2011 at 8:09 pm
GALLUP POLL
Governor Sarah Palin has the highest “Strongly Favorable” rating among all
candidates among Republican/Republican -Leaning Indies
Palin:…….26%
Perry:…… 24%
Bachmann:… 22%
Rudy:……. 22%
Romney:….. 17%
August 9th, 2011 at 8:12 pm
I think Sarah Palin was almost a good governor, but like Perry has to deal with her State budget. Both these so called Fiscal Conservatives have a problem balancing their respective budgets. Both live in conservative states; both have connections to ultra conservative bias. Both have waited and waited and waited to enter while their fellow comrades have been out making a stand. Both run on hypocritical planks because it is very hard to say we want a balanced budget amendment for the country when they haven’t shown such discipline in their states. Neither have had to work across the isle to get things done. Both had Republican legislatures that only balked at their leadership when it went to far. Palin has been completely vetted however where Perry hasn’t had any challenge yet.
Fox News seems to think Perry will be the Knight in shining armour coming to the conservative plank’s rescue. Yet he caters to the very right Evangelical base. He wears his religion on his sleeve. I wonder if the Bildebergers have a connection with God I don’t know about?
In Perry’s public duties how often as he worked on negotiating a business contract; How many times has he rebuilt a company from scratch; how many times did he have to balance his state budget with am opposition party running his legislature? Right now his only claim to fame is the evangelical movement who see him as not Mormon.
This is the one time this country needs a CEO/CFO type individual who will get into the federal budget and cut out the cancer that has spread to every limb. My gut feeling is there is only one who can do what really needs to be done. Why because he’s already has shown it. Perry and Palin both need to get their own house in order first.
Religion our note Mitt Romney carries the right credential at this time. Whether or not he gets the nod will be up to the people. If the people choose another so be it. But based on past record I think Mitt Romney’s record hits the issues the best this time around.
When the question comes up regarding the federal budget all he has to do is lift up a copy of the Massachusetts budget and say here’s what our staff was able to do. Where’s yours?
August 9th, 2011 at 8:14 pm
for all you Romney is underperforming compared to 08 people just a few points
1) The numbers you cite are actual voting numbers in the primaries not along the way polls
2) 4 serious candidates versus 11 now named
3) Romney is outperforming his 08 numbers head to head against Obama (which is all that matters)
4) romney is also outperforming every other GOP candidate in swing states
5) romney is the only one beating Obama in swing states
I’d say wait until the final vote counts to start saying Romney is underperforming or not.
And in the end no one else is even close to Obama in any of the swing states -
so the question beckons- Do you want 4 more years of Obama or do you want the White House, the Senate, and the House and a chance to actually do some long term good for the country? because right now Romney is the only one that makes it a battle with Obama and Obama isnt exactly having a good run of approval ratings. I’d be very worried if we nominate anyone else
August 9th, 2011 at 8:18 pm
Tex, a confused Frenchman..
Palin quit but forgot to tell you.
August 9th, 2011 at 8:21 pm
Huck never said he was running but Sarah told you personally that she was throwing her size 5 dress into the ring…but only in your dreams. Big difference, Froggy.
August 9th, 2011 at 8:23 pm
Funny how no one has mentioned this fact: Every single candidate’s numbers have FALLEN in Michigan by PPP(D) standards. Any conclusions taken from this poll are speculatory……..
August 9th, 2011 at 8:25 pm
62
“When the question comes up regarding the federal budget all he has to do is lift up a copy of the Massachusetts budget and say here’s what our staff was able to do. Where’s yours?”
=======================================
You mean Willard can show $980 millions in taxes-”fees” that he imposed on
Massachusets in order to balance the budget that is required by the law anyway!
Sarah Palin will show billions of dollars in surplus that she left to her
beloved Alaska!
August 9th, 2011 at 8:25 pm
Corep – Three months ago it was Huckabee that performed better in the states against Obama.
The electibility argument based on polling is basically worthless with any competent nominee. The only exception is Palin because she gave up the governorship ad potentially Bachmann because she has only been elected to congress.
Every candidate had to prove his worth and vanquish Democrat opponents to become governor of his respective state. Romney is the only candidate with high name recognition (aside from Palin).
If Obama is in the mid 40′s and one of our candidates who has proven his worth in becoming governor becomes the nominee and runs a competent campain then Obama will lose.
Romney COULD do it – but he has a very checkered record of electoral success. He’s 1 in 3.
Pawlenty COULD do it – he certainly proved to be effective in winning the governor’s race AND winning re-election in a tough year.
Perry COULD do it – he has a proven track record of success and rose from the political dead time and time again. He also vanquished the popular Hutchison and the Karl Rove network.
To say that Romney is the only one that could make it a race against Obama shows that either you haven’t followed other election cycles closely or you have a vested interest in elevating Romney or both.
August 9th, 2011 at 8:25 pm
Folks,
Don’t count out Perry until we see his numbers the next few months versus Obama (compared to Mitt’s). You might be surprised how well Rick does. They will probably be just as good as Huck’s were or BETTER
August 9th, 2011 at 8:37 pm
68 and 69, I will give you that Perry is the only one with a chance to outdo obama. The rest of the pack are doa including my number2 pawlenty. But it is a big unknown. If Perry is painted as a southern religious far right guy he is toast with the independents. Worse if he is painted as w bush part two the gop will be toast and we might go backwards. I am waiting to see how Perry is defined to answer if he can match up against obama in the states that matter
August 9th, 2011 at 8:42 pm
An add to my 70. I think romney obviously stacks up well against obama. My comments reflect the rest of the pack
August 9th, 2011 at 8:43 pm
The ius no doubt Pail is popular among Republicans and the especially the mst conservative.
But for all her popularity a very high number of the gOP DON”T want her running for President. Maybe someday, but not this cycle.
Funny how Palinistas NEVER want to talk about those poll questions or results.
August 9th, 2011 at 8:52 pm
I think Palinistas just need to come to grips with the fact that she’s not likely to run.
That’s not just wishing on the part of supporters of other candidates, but rather objective fact.
If Palin were going to run we’d be seeing some sign of it by now.
I think Palin should run for senate in Arizona. She’s conservative and the senate would be a good fit. Having her there would automatically increase the clout above and beyond what you’d expect from a junior senator. It would be a win-win. Arizona would get their power player and the nation would have a conservative replacement for Kyl.
August 9th, 2011 at 8:53 pm
…and the next time McCain calls his politial allies “Hobbitts” – she could put the crochety old man in his proper place.
August 9th, 2011 at 8:53 pm
I think Perry wll attempt the Bush Red State strategy.
AND IF, and only if Perry beats Mitt in South Carolina and Florida, his case to be our nominee will be made clear at that time. But will Mitt want to go on and try to win California? Yeah, and no matter what happens there, I don’t see him giving up so easily again as he did in ’08.
I do hope Perry and Romney keep it kinda clean. But Huck is already on record as saying this will be our most toxic election ever, primary and general.
August 9th, 2011 at 8:53 pm
Most states don’t an a booming Oil industry to fill the state coffers.
Unfortunately since she never completed her term, the nation has no idea how a 64.4%-term-served Governor would perform in a really troubled environment. All we have to go on are talk radio platitudes, FB posts and Fox News sof-ball interviews. That’s pretty thin gruel to offer concerned voters. Aside from proving the Media wrong in a vanity crusade, there really is no compelly narrative for a Palin campaign.
From a budget surplus and political aspect, the Oil Indusrty boom landed Palin on 3rd base, and her fans think she hit a triple.
August 9th, 2011 at 8:58 pm
Craig – all speculation at this point. But IF Mitt loses BOTH SC and FL there will be tremendous pressure for him to step aside. IF he doesn’t at that point then he’ll like like a sore loser.
If Perry (or anyone else) attempted to stay in after losing SC and FL then same would apply to him.
August 9th, 2011 at 9:00 pm
Doug,
What is the first thing any candidate MUST achieve in order to face Obama?
Did you say THE NOMINATION?
You’re right,bravo!
Who has the best chances to win The Nomination?
De Facto conservative Leader in America,the most popular republican,the most
popular conservative,the most charismatic,the most accomplished Governor,the
most vetted politician in American history or somebody who lacks all of these qualities?
August 9th, 2011 at 9:04 pm
You gal dropped from 24 to 12!
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Only around 23% think she is running. 12% of 23% is 53% of her universe. Bachmann is getting 12% of 100% and I suspect more than 23% think Perry is running.
August 9th, 2011 at 9:06 pm
Well frankie, it’s not like John Coale (greta van Sustran’s hubby) did not set her up with her very own ‘defense’ fund…
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Not true. She tried to set one up and that became the subject of ethics complaints.
August 9th, 2011 at 9:09 pm
If it all goes to hell, and Obama is reelected..
Plan B for everybody..
Senator Romney of Massachusetts (joining his buddy, Brown)
Senator Pawlenty or Bachmann of Minnesota (or Iowa in Michele’s case)
Senator Palin of Arizona (Although Gabbriella Giffords might not be too fond of it.) Perhaps Caifornia would be the place for Sarah go to retire Feinstein.
Senator Johnson of New Mexico
Senator Perry of Texas
Senator Cain of Georgia
..or even better, move to Illinois and let Matt “MWS” run his campaign
August 9th, 2011 at 9:11 pm
Tex,
Palin doesn’t have the best chance to win the nomination. She’s dropped from 60 %+ support among likely primary voters according to Rasmussen after the ’08 election to between 9 and 13 percent in the last month. She has no organization and no infrastructure and has not given any of her would-be supporters any reason to believe she is serious about running.
Palin will never again be the sensational new savior and as a result doesn’t have the potential to upend the race in a way she might have when McCain chose her as a running mate in 2008.
Palin really doesn’t have the best chance to win the nomination. In fact, with each passing day, her chances fall ever closer to zero.
August 9th, 2011 at 9:15 pm
Both have waited and waited and waited to enter while their fellow comrades have been out making a stand. Both run on hypocritical planks because it is very hard to say we want a balanced budget amendment for the country when they haven’t shown such discipline in their states. Neither have had to work across the isle to get things done. Both had Republican legislatures that only balked at their leadership when it went to far. Palin has been completely vetted however where Perry hasn’t had any challenge yet.
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The fact is that no one is paying attention. The ratings on the debates have been abysmal. People will not be paying attention until after Labor Day. Why waste money? Palin left her state with a $12 billion surplus so she did better than balance the budget. She cut spending in real dollars. Palin had no support from Republican legislators because she ran against Republican corruption and everything she passed had to be passed with Democrat support and a smattering of Republicans.
August 9th, 2011 at 9:25 pm
4) romney is also outperforming every other GOP candidate in swing states
5) romney is the only one beating Obama in swing states
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At this point in time That is true. In March 1980, Ford led Carter by 10 and ran 27 points behind Ford, with Reagan trailing Carter by 17. By Nov, Reagan put in a solid debate performance and beat Carter by the same 10 points Ford was. Ford was the generic Republican. If the nominee puts in a solid debate performance then they will be where Romney is just as Reagan ended up where Ford started.
August 9th, 2011 at 9:41 pm
Most states don’t an a booming Oil industry to fill the state coffers.
Unfortunately since she never completed her term, the nation has no idea how a 64.4%-term-served Governor would perform in a really troubled environment.
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I suppose you’ve never heard of getting oil and natural gas from shale. The marcellus shale runs through Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and New York. The Uttica shale is in Ohio. There are also shale oil deposits in swing states like Colorado.
She did have trouble. In the third year of her term, oil dropped from $150 a barrel to the 50s. That led to a $1.3 trillion deficit. The deficit was not as big as it could have been if she had followed the lead of other governors who spent everything coming in. As a result, she cut $268 million and took the rest from reserves. Problem solved by using a little prevention.
August 9th, 2011 at 9:58 pm
#85 Oil shale production is not an established industry in those states, to same extent the oil industry so dominates the Alaskan economy. Don’t try to pull that sleight of hand around here, Franklin, it won’t work.Again your facts are suspect.
The price of oil drop must have happened in the final 6 months of Palin’s term becasue there was NO third year.
August 9th, 2011 at 9:59 pm
TEX,
Don’t be so dense.
THE GOP rank and file like Palin but DON”T want her running.
All you Gallic bravado won’t change that, sorry to say.
August 9th, 2011 at 10:43 pm
Doug,
You and the rest of Rombots know that Sarah Palin will demolish Romney with half of her charisma,half of her stellar record,half of her great accomplishments etc tied behind her back,just to make it fair.
Can’t you hear the Arctic Hurricane rolling?It’s coming!!!
August 9th, 2011 at 11:00 pm
Romney is the only guy who can win Michigan against Obama, and Obama can’t win re-election without it.
Michigan is a state in which Mitt dominates, and it’s going EARLY.
August 9th, 2011 at 11:25 pm
Thad McCotter at 5%, and Tim Pawlenty at 4%
wow.
August 9th, 2011 at 11:41 pm
Tex,
Keep dreaming, because that where a Plian campaign will be, in you dreams.
August 10th, 2011 at 12:49 am
Have another cocktail, Doug NYC
August 10th, 2011 at 2:11 am
Oil shale production is not an established industry in those states, to same extent the oil industry so dominates the Alaskan economy. Don’t try to pull that sleight of hand around here, Franklin, it won’t work.Again your facts are suspect.
The price of oil drop must have happened in the final 6 months of Palin’s term becasue there was NO third year.
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You would’nt know a fact if it hit you. The fact is that the Marcellus shale is a growing industry in Pennsylvania. A Penn State study suggests that fully exploited, it could create over 200,000 in Pennsylvania. Another driller reported a huge find with the Uttica shale in Ohio. I would suggest you listen to Jim Cramer. He regularly speaks with executives of companies who are developing these shale deposits. In addition how manyjobs can we create if we build up our energy infrastructure as Palin has supported.
She had to submit a budget at the beginning of her 3rd year. It did have a deficit of $1.3 billion. It would have been bigger had she spent every dollar coming in like most governors did. That’s what Rick Perry did and why he has a fiscal mess on his hands. The fact is that thanks to her prudent fiscal management, Alaska could have survived oil in the 50s for several years. Moody’s upgrade of Alaska to AAA was because of the $14 billion in state reserves Alaska held and $12 billion came from Palin.
August 10th, 2011 at 7:57 am
Rubiozone – LOL.
Are you a former ROS poster? The reason I ask is, because I used to discuss cocktails over there more frequently.
If you are an ROS alum, what name did post under?
August 21st, 2011 at 9:34 pm
Ron Paul will win. He’s the only one that can get grassroots Democratic voters to switch to vote Republican
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Hi! Great post!