Today Governor Jon Huntsman put out the framework of his economic policy. The four main issues that the Governor tackles are: tax reform, regulatory reform, energy independence and trade policy. Read it here (warning it’s a pdf document).

I for one am glad that Huntsman and soon Governor Mitt Romney will be outlining their policy proposals more in-depth. It’s probably naïve, but here’s hoping that some of the race for the Republican nomination centers on ideas and issues instead of name calling and claims of “I’m the best-est conservative ever.”

Paul Beddard has the story:

Surging Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry, the Texas governor, has pledged to influential Christian leaders that he will push pro-life policies, oppose gay marriage, and pick cabinet officials and a vice president who share his values, a promise that would rule out a Perry-Rudy Giuliani ticket.

At a weekend Texas gathering of about 200 conservative leaders, some from Washington, Perry and his wife Anita portrayed themselves as authentic and life-long conservatives who could bring the most pro-life administration ever to Washington.

Over four hours of conversational questions and answers Saturday night and another two on Sunday morning, the couple addressed many questions from key players who are still just learning about Perry, the longest-ever serving Texas governor shoved into the presidential race after other big-name governors and former governors bailed out.

Key among the questions Perry fielded was who he would pick as a vice presidential candidate if he wins the nomination. Perry is an ally of Giuliani and endorsed him for president during the 2008 GOP primaries. At the time, he cited the former New York City mayor’s ability to pull the city together after the 9/11 attacks.

Some of those at the weekend conclave said Perry promised to stick to the pledge when considering a vice president and they left believing that meant Giuliani is out of the picture. Perry is currently far ahead of GOP pack in the polls.

The fact that Perry never specifically ruled out selecting Giuliani leads me to believe that too much may have been read into Perry’s statements.

Be sure to read the whole thing.

Hat-tip: Hot Air.

Well, we’ve known the strategy since last spring: lay low through the summer to avoid overexposure, then hit the ground running full speed ahead after Labor Day. And the Romney campaign is following their plan to a T, ramping up and readying for a dizzying campaign schedule starting this weekend.

Politico talked to senior Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom, who filled in the following details of the ramp-up:

Fehrnstrom said Romney will also conduct a more aggressive media strategy beginning next month, appearing more frequently on cable TV news and conducting local TV interviews in early primary states.

“You’ll see him take it up a notch.”

Further, Romney aides said the campaign plans to roll out more endorsements, and work internally to bolster their grassroots effort, identifying more committed voters and building coalitions.

As a Romney supporter, this is exciting. I’m especially looking forward to the strategic rollout of endorsements throughout the fall.

Oh, and Romney isn’t backing away from direct challenges to Rick Perry, either. Fehrnstrom notes that in the upcoming debates (three of them in a two week span in September), Romney plans to “engage” Perry. They don’t plan on being the first to draw blood – a wise political move – but humorously note:

“Perry will throw the first punch. He can’t help himself.”

It’s exactly what I predicted a while ago: Perry will come out swinging at Romney, learning the wrong lesson from Pawlenty’s demise and trying to win those voters who just want an attack dog to take on Obama in the general election. And when he does, Romney will be waiting – cool, calm, collected… and prepared. I can’t wait.

Beginning this weekend, the Battle Royale between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney will be turned up a notch as Romney starts to put his well-known work ethic on display and reaps the benefits of his months of organizational groundwork he has laid.

IBOPE Zogby Interactive 2012 Presidential Survey

• Chris Christie 49%
• Barack Obama 40%

• Mitt Romney 45%
• Barack Obama 40% 

• Rick Perry 46%
• Barack Obama 44%

• Barack Obama 43%
• Paul Ryan 43%

• Barack Obama 40%
• Ron Paul 40%

• Barack Obama 44%
• Herman Cain 44%

• Barack Obama 46%
• Michele Bachmann 41%

• Barack Obama 45%
  
• Rick Santorum 40%

• Barack Obama 46%
• Sarah Palin 39%

• Barack Obama 45%
  
• Newt Gingrich 38%

• Barack Obama 38%
  
• Jon Huntsman 30%

(more…)

IBOPE Zogby Interactive 2012 GOP Nomination Survey

• Rick Perry 41%
• Mitt Romney 12%
• Ron Paul 11%
• Michele Bachmann 9%
• Herman Cain 8%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Newt Gingrich 3%
• Gary Johnson 0%
• Fred Karger 0%
• Other 2%
• Not Sure 8%

(more…)

Quinnipiac National Republican Primary

• Perry – 24% (10)
• Romney – 18% (25)
• Palin – 11% (12)
• Bachmann – 10% (14)
• Paul – 9% (5)
• Cain – 5% (6)
• Gingrich – 3% (5)
• Huntsman – 1% (1)
• McCotter – 1% (-)
• Santorum – 1% (1)
• Undecided – 16% (18)

Without Palin

• Perry – 26%
• Romney – 20%
• Bachmann – 12%
• Paul – 10%
• Cain – 5%
• Gingrich – 4%
• Santorum – 2%
• Huntsman – 1%
• McCotter – 1%

General Election Matchups

• Romney – 45%
• Obama – 45%

• Obama – 45%
• Perry – 42%

• Obama – 48%
• Bachmann – 39%

• Obama – 51%
• Palin – 37%

Survey of 1185 Republican voters (primary) and 2730 registered voters (general election) was conducted August 16-27. Margins of error are +/-2.9% (primary) and +/-1.9% (general election).

PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU (D) Political Survey

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?

• Favorable 45% [49%] {45%} (49%) [47%] {50%}
• Unfavorable 51% [47%] {50%} (47%) [48%] {45%}

Among Democrats

• Favorable 82% [78%] {81%} (84%) [82%] {83%}
• Unfavorable 14% [18%] {14%} (12%) [14%] {12%}

Among Republicans

• Favorable 8% [11%] {10%} (12%) [11%] {12%}
• Unfavorable 88% [85%] {86%} (84%) [85%] {83%}

Among Independents

• Favorable 36% [50%] {38%} (41%) [46%] {48%}
• Unfavorable 58% [46%] {57%} (55%) [50%] {47%}

(more…)

For those who may have forgotten, Rent is Too Damn High Party founder and multiple time NY Gubernatorial / NYC Mayoral candidate Jimmy McMillan is running for President as a Republican. The Gothamist sat down with him and the two people creating a documentary entitled, “DAMN” about his rise to fame and, well, McMillan. Below is the trailer for the documentary:

Here’s an excerpt from the interview when he was asked if his noterity has helped in his political ambitions:

Not in America. Israelis are taking me seriously. The Arab world is taking me seriously. But in America it’s like no big deal. All my support right now comes from the European nation. I get more e-mails from London and Europe and all those places. But the Americans have fallen into voting for candidates who only address the accessories of a nation, not the necessities. So we have accessory candidates getting elected, talking about constitutional rights and values, not about what they’re going to do to create one job, and as I say all the time, provide a roof over your head and money in your pocket. That’s all I talk about. They don’t know how to ask the economic question of how we’re going to get this country together. Nobody’s ever asking that.

That’s a difficult question, because I haven’t received a contribution…No, I did. I received $10 last month. People are not paying money. People are programmed to vote the way that they vote. Certain things they do let you know that they’re not educated. When they say, “Oh you’re a one-issue candidate, you’re only about rent.” When they say that, I know that the person who taught them in school is a dummy too, a moron. You have to understand that when you go to the store to buy coffee, coffee that was once 15 cents is now $1.15 because his rent went up. When you understand that rent, the reason that your coffee costs so much, because the property that they have that car dealership on is expensive, you’re paying for it. America is not paying, but the European world seem to understand that.

I want the young people to overthrow the hold of their parents. The young people seem to get it. When a young person asks me a question about the environment, you must be talking to your stupid-ass parents. Because you have a place to stay. You’re breathing every day. I mean I understand that you need air, don’t get me wrong. I’ll break wind and give you some air if you needed it. That’s how funny I am. But when it comes to reality, what about, ‘Do you have a job?’ Be independent! Young people need to go away from the way their parents have voted and take this country over by voting all the old voters out of office. Inauguration day, January 3rd. When I looked at the TV, I thought the TV was leaning over. Everybody getting sworn in was so old! So this is serious. Way before I met Aaron and Kristian, I had a plan. My plan was to build this campaign around digital and social media. It worked. I don’t have an office…Or I do.

Check out the entire interview. McMillan is a character.

_______________________________________________________

-Matt Newman is a conservative blogger from Maryland who blogs at Old Line Elephant / Pundit League and Tweets far too often.

While many in the Race community may not hold David Frum in high regard, yesterday he penned an eye-opening analysis of the emerging Romney vs. Perry dogfight for the Republican nomination:

When choosing a candidate for president, it’s important not to lose sight of the “for president” part. American history is replete with examples of very attractive candidates who did not cut the mustard in the office. Isn’t that the fundamental Republican critique of Barack Obama? Great candidate, bad executive.

…If you were running a competence primary today, how would you rate Rick Perry as a candidate? Some might say: he must be good, look at all those jobs they are creating in Texas. They were creating a lot of jobs in Texas in 1998 too – yet George W. Bush still managed to disappoint as a national leader.

The question you want to ask is: how does the candidate manage?

Does he absorb and process information intelligently? Does he have a good sense for distinguishing truth from flim-flam? Does he surround himself with capable people? Does he demand results and enforce accountability? How does he react to (inevitable) failures?

By these criteria, Romney shows the makings of a successful president. Rick Perry – not so much.

Frum makes some excellent points here. We Republicans often lament that the American public (especially young voters) will never view us as “the cool, hip party”, and I would largely agree, as perceptions of “coolness” often coincide with social/moral permissiveness and adherence to societal trends, both of which fundamentally clash with conservatism on some level or another.

With that in mind, what “competitive advantage” (to use a well-known business term) can the GOP hope to establish? I would argue that ideology alone simply won’t cut it. If it did, we would see more empirical support for the theory espoused by the talk radio crowd – that if Republicans just articulate conservative principles clearly enough, they’ll win over enough of the public to dominate elections and policy debates. In reality, the Republicans who rely almost exclusively on ideological purity (see: Angle, Sharron, and O’Donnell, Christine) often lose out to those who apply conservative principles to the issues of the day with credible, persuasive campaign platforms (see: McDonnell, Bob, Rubio, Marco, et al.). In short, most voters don’t so much care exactly how conservative or liberal candidates are; they care about how the candidates will address the issues affecting them.

I’ll also offer another hypothesis: that Republicans need to regain the competency advantage they previously held. Historically, voters trusted the GOP to govern more effectively and efficiently than Democrats. The high-profile struggles of the Bush administration – namely, Iraq and Katrina – erased that advantage and actually flipped it to the Dems, as many have attributed the economic growth and historically aberrant lack of military conflict of the Clinton years to the 42nd President’s skill in office.

In sum, barring some unforeseen upheavals in the American political landscape, the Democratic Party will always attract voters most concerned with idealistic crusades for environmentalism, absolute social equality, and a pacifistic foreign policy. To combat that, the GOP must win back the individuals more attuned to the less romantic but at least as essential realities of governing, managing tradeoffs, and steering the ship of state. In a Romney vs. Perry matchup under these terms, Mitt would almost certainly come out ahead. However, time will tell if enough of the Republican electorate views the future of the party in this light. As of now, it appears unlikely.

While the date of the Florida Primary hasn’t yet been determined, the state will most likely be fifth in the presidential primary season and has been seen as one of the more important primaries. With that in mind, tailoring a message to the Florida electorate is very important. Like other states, there are certain topics that are more sensitive in Florida than in other places. For instance many of our Romney folks believe that Rick Perry’s comments in Fed Up! about Social Security will hurt him with the large elderly population of the state. However, this post is about another candidate, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and her remarks about the Florida Everglades:

Republican presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann says she’d consider drilling for oil and natural gas in the Everglades if it can be done without causing “environmental degradation.”

This is a colossal mistake on the part of the Congresswoman on several levels. First, any kind of drilling near Florida is political suicide since the BP oil spill. The Florida Legislature has killed any and all drilling bills since that fiasco. Moreover, this isn’t just any area we are talking about. The Everglades is one of the natural treasures of this state and Governors of Florida starting with Governor Claude Kirk in 1968 and continuing to this day have strived to protect the area. It’s one of the few things Jeb Bush, Bob Graham, and Charlie Crist agree on. This policy has been strongly supported by both Democrats and Republicans in Florida. In short, it is one of the few things that Floridians agree on; don’t touch the Everglades.

But don’t take my word for it. I give you Congressman Allen West:

U.S. Rep. Allen West told a town hall audience today that Republican presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann made “an incredible faux pas” when she said she is open to allowing drilling for oil and natural gas in the Everglades if it can be done safely.

“When I see her next week, I’ll straighten her out about that,” West said of the Minnesota congresswoman.

West is a member of the House Tea Party Caucus, which Bachmann chairs.

Michele Bachmann’s long-term viability is open to question, especially with the rise of Governor Perry. However, if the Congresswoman is still in the race come Florida, you can bet someone, whether another campaign or an outside group, will blister her over her comments. Two of the debates in September are here in Florida and I would be shocked if someone didn’t ask her a question about this. The Congresswoman better have one heck of an explanation if she doesn’t want to cause herself anymore damage on what should have been an easily avoidable mistake.

Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Name Recognition

• Sarah Palin 97%
  
• Rudy Giuliani 91%
• Mitt Romney 88%
• Michele Bachmann 85%
• Newt Gingrich 85%
• Ron Paul 78%
• Rick Perry 75%
• Rick Santorum 52%
• Herman Cain 50%
• Jon Huntsman 43%

(more…)

PPP (D) South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Rick Perry 36%
• Mitt Romney 13% {27%} [20%] (24%)
• Sarah Palin 10% {18%} [18%] (22%)
• Herman Cain 9% {12%}
• Michele Bachmann 7% {9%}
• Newt Gingrich 7% {12%} [13%] (25%)
• Ron Paul 5% {7%} [7%] (7%)
• Rick Santorum 4%
• Jon Huntsman 2% {2%}
• Someone else/Not sure 7% {9%} [8%]

(more…)

Over at NRO, Katrina Trinko has a nice piece detailing how Rep. Ron Paul has emphasized his Pro-Life philosophy in his 2012 campaign:

When Ron Paul spoke at the Ames Straw Poll earlier this month, he did not start by launching into a tirade about the Federal Reserve or lamenting the United States’s military policy in Afghanistan. Instead, Paul first spoke about abortion.

It was a surprising twist. Paul is pro-life, and has been for his entire career. But his serious pro-life perspective has often taken a back seat to his views on the economy and foreign policy.

“We must be pro-life or you cannot be pro-liberty the way I understand it,” Paul said at Ames. Speaking about his experience as a medical student in the Sixties, he talked about seeing one premature baby deliberately being allowed to die and another baby, also premature, being rescued by a diligent medical staff. “My conclusion that very day is you cannot have relative value for life and deal with that.” he observed. “We cannot play God and make those decisions. All life is precious.”

People (including some of supporters) are often surprised to learn that Ron Paul is, indeed, Pro-Life . However, he has never shied away from discussing the topic when asked. Here is a snippet from my exclusive interview with Rep. Paul from Race42008:

KWN: Has your pro-life position ever brought you into conflict with other libertarians?

Rep. Ron Paul: You know, it’s surprising, not a whole lot. I mean, they disagree but there is a Libertarian for Life organization. Ironically and interestingly enough it is run by someone who claims to be an atheist. Yet the woman is very friendly and we talk a lot and have worked together. She actually uses Ayn Rand as a defense for her position — individual responsibility argument. My defense of pro-life as a libertarian is that killing a live fetus that is viable and can breathe and has a heartbeat and brainwaves; to kill that fetus is an act of aggression, and that [is against] the whole principle of libertarianism.-(all emphasis mine)

Read the rest of Ms. Trinko’s piece here. You can read the rest of my exclusive with Rep. Ron Paul here.

Laura Donovan over at The Daily Caller reports that KISS bassist, Gene Simmons, seems to have picked a horse for 2012:

Two weeks after predicting that Texas Gov. Rick Perry will oust President Barack Obama from the White House in 2012, KISS bassist Gene Simmons suggested that former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice would make a fine running mate.

In a series of tweets Friday, Simmons waded back into political waters by suggesting the Perry–Rice presidential ticket.

“Wanna play a Political Game? Here’s a hard ticket to beat – Gov Perry and Condoleezza Rice,” the musician tweeted.

Simmons went on to explain why he views Condi favorably.

“Met her in Stockholm & she struck me as politically savvy as anyone I’ve met in gov’mt,” Simmons wrote in another tweet. “She won’t run for VP, but this ticket is a winner.”

Earlier this month, Simmons expressed confidence that Perry would be the next president, citing his own voting history as evidence: “I voted for Pres Bush. I voted for Pres Clinton. I voted for Pres Obama. The next president will be Gov Rick Perry…Gov Perry worked for Al Gore and then switched to Republican. He will be our next President. I’ve never been wrong.” (MORE: Gene Simmons declares Rick Perry the next president)

While Simmons has faith that the Perry–Rice ticket is a winner, the rock star clarified via Twitter that he hasn’t yet announced who he’ll vote for in a year’s time.

Read the rest here.

The three states that the Huntsman campaign has been focusing on are New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Well, today the Governor received another endorsement in the Palmetto State:

Jon Huntsman, looking for a way back in the GOP primary, lands the endorsement of South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson.

“It does no good to be a conservative if you can’t sell a conservative message in a general election,” Wilson said at the press conference.

Former South Carolina Attorney General Henry McMaster has also endorsed the Utah Governor and is running Huntsman’s statewide campaign. He also snagged the support of the family of the late Governor Carroll Campbell.

Rumored since last week, the endorsement was made official today:

Texas Gov. Rick Perry today received the endorsement of U.S. Senator James Inhofe (R-Okla.) in his campaign for president of the United States.

“I’ve known Gov. Rick Perry for a long time, and I am endorsing him because I know he is the strongest leader to run against and defeat President Obama. After three years of Obama’s liberal agenda, Rick Perry is the right person to get America working again and turn our country in the right direction,” said Sen. Inhofe. “His record as Texas’ governor proves that he knows you grow the economy with less government, by controlling spending, cutting taxes, reforming tort laws and reducing regulatory red tape for employers. One of the important areas is reigning in over-regulation. Rick Perry is strong against the Cap and Trade tax that would further devastate our economy and do nothing but move jobs overseas to places like China. He is one of the few who understand this, and he won’t cave in to the extreme environmental activists or the Hollywood crowd and their liberal agenda. We can’t afford four more years of the Obama malaise. Look at what Rick Perry has done in his state. He is going to be a great president!”

“As one of the leading conservative voices in the United States Senate, Sen. Inhofe will be an important asset to this campaign, and I am humbled to receive his support,” said. Gov. Perry. “I am proud to partner with him as I travel the nation to share my vision to get America working again.”

Gov. Perry also announced the endorsement of Florida State Senate President Don Gaetz.

Somewhere, Bill Kristol just felt a tremor in The Force…

Texas Governor Rick Perry delved into foreign policy this morning as he addressed the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in San Antonio, warning that the United States “cannot concede the moral authority of our nation to multi-lateral debating societies.”

“I do not believe that America should fall subject to a foreign policy of military adventurism. We should only risk shedding American blood and spending American treasure when our vital interests are threatened and we should always look to build coalitions among the nations to protect the mutual interests of freedom loving people,” Perry told thousands of veterans today.

“It’s not our interest to go it alone. We respect our allies, and we must always seek to engage them in military missions. At the same time, we must be willing to act when it is time to act. We cannot concede the moral authority of our nation to multi-lateral debating societies, and when our interests are threatened American soldiers should be led by American commanders.”

Perry pointed to the lessons learned from the Vietnam War as helping leaders make more cautious decisions when engaging in combat.

“A president should never send our sons and daughters into war without a plan to win and the resources to make that possible,” Perry said. “It’s a dangerous world that we live in today. Our enemies often don’t wear uniforms or swear allegiance to a particular flag but instead to an ideology of hatred. As the 10th anniversary of the attacks of 911 approach, we must renew our commitment to taking the fight to the enemy wherever they are before they strike at home.”

Actually, Perry seems to be speaking out of both sides of his mouth here, but there do seem to be some subtle digs at the Bush Administration as to the manner in which the nation engaged in military action over the course of President Bush’s two terms. It should be interesting to see whether the NeoConservative pockets of the GOP establishment join the Bushies in their efforts to derail what is beginning to look like a probable Perry nomination.

This update has been a long time coming – here is the latest iteration of the 2012 Republican Primary calendar:

Did I miss an event? Let me know in the comments.

Please note that this calendar just contains the official Republican debates, not the myriad of “forums” that various groups sponsor throughout the primary season. Please also note some important information regarding the primary/caucus dates in red: Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina have all moved to officially hold their primaries and caucuses on the days listed above. Those three dates have been chosen by the national and state parties. The New Hampshire date is the expected date of that primary based on national party plans, but the New Hampshire primary is generally the last primary set because it has to react to whatever other states try to jump in line. Other states, such as Michigan, Florida, Utah, and Arizona, that are threatening to jump before the March 6 date mandated by the RNC are not listed on this calendar because no official dates have been set by those states.

CNN/ORC 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

• Rick Perry 27% [15%] (14%)
• Mitt Romney 14% [17%] (16%)
• Sarah Palin 10% [12%] (13%)
• Rudy Giuliani 9% [12%] (13%)
• Michele Bachmann 9% [7%] (12%)
• Newt Gingrich 6% [5%] (4%)
• Ron Paul 6% [12%] (8%)
• Herman Cain 2% [4%] (6%)
• Gary Johnson 2% [0%] (0%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% [4%] (1%)
• Rick Santorum 1% [2%] (2%)
• Thaddeus McCotter 0% [0%] (0%)
• Someone else (vol.) 3% [2%] (1%)
• None/No one (vol.) 5% [4%] (8%)
• No opinion 3% [2%] (1%)

(more…)

• Gallup Obama Approval Daily Tracking: 38%/55% (-17%)
• Rasmussen Obama Approval Daily Tracking: 45%/55% (-10)
• RCP Average: 43.4%/53.0% (-9.6%)
• Intrade Obama to be Reelected: 51.1% chance

Inside the numbers:

Hot Air -

Barack Obama’s approval rating dropped three points in a single day while his disapproval rating jumped up four, giving him the worst rating of his presidency at 38/55. Both numbers are records for Obama’s presidency in the Gallup series.

Daily tracking polls are volatile, which is why Gallup and Rasmussen use three-day calculations for their numbers. A seven-point swing in the gap is still an unusually large swing, and it’s worth noting that Rasmussen didn’t track the same response. Yesterday’s tracking poll at Rasmussen had Obama underwater at 46/54, the difference mainly being undecideds. However, that’s a point better for Obama than Saturday’s 45/54, and five points better than Friday’s 43/56.

Since these polls operate in three-day cycles, the shift must have come from a relatively positive result from Gallup’s survey calls on Wednesday dropping out of the calculation, replaced by a horrendous result from Saturday’s calls.

Given that Rasmussen isn’t picking up on a dramatic popular shift in the same tracking poll, I’m going to guess we’ll know more when we see the results from both tracking polls over the next few days.

Yesterday, Fox Sunday News interviewed Ron Paul as part of their series of Sunday interviews with 2012 GOP candidates.

While I have always found a good bit of Paul’s platform and philosophy highly appealing, I have never directly supported any of his past presidential campaigns for reasons of practicality. But, as many have noticed, he seems to be attracting more support this time than ever before. Yesterday’s appearance may help explain why, as this may be his best interview yet or at least one of the best that I have ever seen.

I must share my amusement at the question from Chris Wallace about Austrian Economics and von Mises and Hayek. Apparently, such must be a very novel subject with unfamiliar names around the confines of Fox News (not surprising), but surprising in that Fox is considered the “conservative” network.

I do agree with Wallace’s suggestion that Paul may be influencing the political debate this time around more than ever before—and that’s not bad.

Maggie Haberman has the story over at Politico:

It’s the worst-kept secret of the GOP presidential primary: Mitt Romney and Rick Perry have never liked each other very much.

And the past animosity could play out on the national scene in the coming weeks when Romney, the precarious front-runner, and Perry, who is rising in the polls, take the stage together for a series of fall debates.

The tension between the two goes back at least five years, tracing back to a 2006 blow-up when the two Republicans served together as governors. At the time, Romney, then the Republican Governors Association chairman, hired veteran media strategist Alex Castellanos to do work for the national group — a direct affront to Perry, since Castellanos was working for Carole Keeton Strayhorn, who was running as an independent against the Texas governor.

“There was a big blowup” between Romney and Perry over it, said one Republican familiar with the situation.

“It’s not like [Castellanos] was working for a Republican, he was working for an independent,” said the Texas Republican. “If that had been Rick Perry running the RGA, he’d have fired his ass and made sure he got no work anywhere. You’re trying to grow your ranks, not shrink your ranks.”

A source close to Romney who was familiar with the event said, “I think from [Romney’s] perspective, he felt he was doing what was right for the RGA.”

Some say the relationship never recovered.

This context may be important to keep in mind as the campaign between these two candidates heats up.

Be sure to read the rest here.

Conservatives are stampeding toward Rick Perry.

Rick Perry has pole-vaulted over Willard Mitt Romney in the race to become the top Republican to face President Obama on Election Day 2012. Texas’s governor beat Massachusetts’s former governor 29 percent to 17 percent, Gallup reported Wednesday, in the second national survey to find Perry leading by double digits among Republicans. Perry deserves this distinction. While he lacks the pro-market purity of Milton Friedman, Perry’s record should satisfy limited-government conservatives far more than Romney’s.

• As “America’s jobs governor,” Perry is a one-man antidote to Obama’s venomous policies, which have held unemployment above 9 percent for 25 of the last 27 months. Across all 50 states, between June 2009 and June 2011, the Dallas Federal Reserve calculates that 49.9 percent of America’s net new jobs arose in Texas. July was its eleventh straight month of payroll expansion, with 29,300 Texans finding work. Nearly eleven years into Perry’s governorship, Texas inarguably is No. 1 in job growth.

During Romney’s single four-year term, however, the U.S. Labor Department ranked Massachusetts No. 47 in job growth. Employment increased just 0.9 percent between January 2003 and January 2007. At that time, U.S. job growth was roughly 5 percent, reports WSJ.com’s Brett Arends. Romney did keep Massachusetts ahead of Ohio and Michigan — two Rust Belt job sieves — and Louisiana, crushed by Katrina.

• The libertarian Cato Institute’s Report Card on America’s Governors gives Perry straight Bs and Romney consistent Cs.

Cato praised Perry for introducing “a zero-based budget to force the state agencies to justify their continued existence and funding levels” and noted that “he has presided over moderate increases in the Texas general fund budget.” Cato applauded Perry’s “substantial achievement”: a $6 billion property tax cut in 2004 — including a first-year, $1.5 billion net tax reduction. However, Cato criticized Perry for partially offsetting this tax relief with a $1-per-pack cigarette tax hike and a gross receipts tax on business.

Cato observed that Romney’s “first budget, presented under the cloud of a $2 billion deficit, balanced the budget with some spending cuts, but a $500 million increase in various fees was the largest component of the budget fix.” Cato also saw that Romney “proposed modest increases to the budget and line-item vetoed millions of dollars each year, only to have most of those vetoes overridden.” In October 2006, Cato’s Stephen Slivinski predicted Romney’s current migraine: “If you consider the massive costs to taxpayers that his universal health care plan will inflict once he’s left office, Romney’s tenure is clearly not a triumph of small-government activism.”

• On health care, the free-market Club for Growth (where I twice have spoken) lauds Perry for expanding managed care within Medicaid. Among other recent modernizations, a CFG White Paper on Perry explains, “this bill could save Texas nearly $468 million over two years.” After Perry’s extensive lawsuit reforms, “the number of insurance companies offering medical malpractice insurance soared 650 percent,” along with a massive influx of doctors eager to perform diagnoses rather than depositions.

CFG credits Romney for requiring Medicaid patients to co-pay for some treatments and increasing new state workers’ health contributions from 15 percent to 25. But CFG also describes Romneycare as “one lab experiment that has completely failed.” Romneycare wields an individual mandate. Also, government-funded medicine has zoomed from $133 million in Fiscal Year 2007 to some $880 million in FY2010 — despite Romney’s promise that “the costs of health care will be reduced.”

Unlike Perry, who can slam the president on Obamacare to his face, Romney cannot do so without inviting an immediate and overwhelming smackdown from Obama. Imagine Romney in a fall 2012 debate against Obama. After criticizing the president’s signature accomplishment, Obama might say, “Mitt, considering what you did as governor, it’s strange to hear you speak so poorly about the health-reform plan that I signed. After all, the Wall Street Journal called Romneycare ‘the dress rehearsal for Obamacare.’” That line alone could do to Romney what Ronald Reagan did to 1984’s Democratic nominee, Walter Mondale, when he said in an autumn debate: “I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

• While CFG chides Perry for “well-intentioned, but misguided state-funded subsidy programs to attract corporations to Texas,” it praises him for opposing the ethanol program, possibly Washington’s grubbiest corporate-welfare scheme.

Romney, in turn, boldly told Iowa voters on May 27: “I support the subsidy of ethanol.”

• Perry describes so-called “global warming” as an unproven “scientific theory” and believes that “there are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data” on this issue.

“I believe the world is getting warmer, and I believe that humans have contributed to that,” Romney declared June 3. On Wednesday, he retreated: “I don’t know if it’s mostly caused by humans.”

“It is quite likely that Perry would seek to move the country in a much more pro-growth direction,” the Club for Growth concludes. “Almost any movement in the direction of the Texas approach would be welcomed.”

“We also think that Romney is somewhat of a technocrat,” CFG summarizes. “He has developed an unshakeable reputation as a flip-flopper. He has changed his position on several economic issues, including taxes, education, political free speech, and climate change. And yet the one issue that he doesn’t flip on — Romneycare — is the one that is causing him the most problems with conservative voters.”

Conservatives hungry for free — or at least freer — markets are stampeding toward Rick Perry. True, the cowboy-boot-wearing governor recalls Pres. G. W. Bush in style. Unfortunately, Willard Mitt Romney reflects him in substance.

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-Deroy Murdock is a nationally syndicated columnist with the Scripps Howard News Service and a media fellow with the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace at Stanford University. This piece was originally published on National Review Online on August 26th, 2011.

As the Republican primary moves ahead, the definite narrative is that the contest is a two-man race between Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Both Governors tout their jobs record; the former as Governor and the latter as a private businessman. Both Governors have their own strengths that they bring to the race that makes them formidable contenders. Perry for instance, has an easier time connecting with the primary electorate and is from the GOP’s strongest region. Romney has experience on the national stage and the best poll numbers against President Obama. Both men are strong in different areas of the country. In short, both Romney and Perry appear to have something to offer the Republican electorate.

All this together makes for an interesting dynamic in the Republican primary. The contest between Romney and Perry has the potential to extend far beyond Super Tuesday, the traditional point in the primary season where the Republican nominee is all but certain. In fact, the 2012 race could be the longest Republican Primary since 1980, when Ronald Reagan finally vanquished George H. W. Bush in late May of that year.

As I said earlier, Romney and Perry are strong in different areas of the country. Perry is strong in the South and probably the southern Midwest (downstate Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Ohio). Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has strength in the Northeast and the Western states. With more Republican primaries being proportional, the ability of a candidate to rack up a huge delegate lead, like the one John McCain had after Super Tuesday, is diminished. With the exception of Florida and possibly Arizona, front-loading is less popular this time around than in primaries past. To make things more complicated, both candidates could also have beach-heads in the other’s areas. Romney could probably win Florida in the South and Michigan in the Midwest, while Perry could probably crack some of Romney’s strongholds in the Mountain West. Finally, both men can establish a large war chest, enabling them to stay strong much later in the primary season. After all, one of the main problems with Mike Huckabee’s campaign in 2008 was his chronic lack of funds. Romney and Perry will not have the same problem.

Of course, all this assumes that the conventional wisdom is correct and it will be a Romney v. Perry race. Who knows; maybe Bachmann keeps her strength in Iowa or Huntsman starts picking up steam in New Hampshire? Maybe something comes out about Perry during this initial vetting process? Maybe someone else catches fire or jumps in the race? We simply don’t know. But, if the contest for the Republican nomination does become Rick Perry v. Mitt Romney, don’t count on the race being over by Super Tuesday. This is not a bad thing either; Obama didn’t seem particularly damaged by his grueling primary season versus Hillary Clinton. Moreover, the more states and voters that get a say in who the Republican nominee is, the more likely that the eventual nominee will be more accepted by the electorate at large. A long contest will also allow the eventual nominee to build up their state-by-state infrastructure in the first half of the year. President Obama might not have won Indiana or North Carolina in the general election if he hadn’t had a strong organization left there from the primary season.

So, we Republicans should prepare for a long primary battle. And it might even be a good thing.

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

This is the 400th anniversary of one of William Shakespeare’s most celebrated and influential plays “The Tempest.” It was first performed in November, 1611, and is the only play by the Bard (arguably the world’s greatest playwright) which has connections to the New World. It has provoked more adaptions, music, poetry and other artistic and critical inspirations than perhaps any of Shakespeare’s other works, which is no small matter when it is considered that Shakespeare also wrote “Hamlet,” “MacBeth,” “Othello,” A Midsummer’s Night’s Dream,” “All’s Well That Ends Well,” “Romeo and Juliet,” “Julius Caesar,” “King Lear,” “The Merchant of Venice,” “Twelfth Night,” “Taming of the Shrew,” “Antony and Cleopatra,” “Coriolanus,” “As You Like It,” “Much Ado About Nothing,” and twenty-one other plays known the world over.

With Hurricane Irene now raging through the U.S. East Coast from its Caribbean origins (supposedly “The Tempest” was set in the Caribbean), I could not help but think of Shakespeare’s play with its iconic storm created magically by the play’s main character Prospero, the exiled Duke of Milan. Although it remains to be seen how “historic” and great a storm Irene will be, it has certainly gripped in advance of its path the justifiable concern of millions of Americans who are likely to be affected by it, and the entire rest of nation watching from “a safe distance.”

One of the most famous visual images of this play was the painting “The Shipwreck” by the most celebrated 18th century portraitist George Romney. Yes, current frontrunner for the Republican nomination Mitt Romney is a descendant/kinsman of George Romney the painter, and that got me to thinking about a second tempest now going through the United States, a fellow named Rick Perry who is also the current governor of Texas. In only a few weeks, Mr. Perry has announced his late entry into the presidential contest, and has already emerged as Mr. Romney’s main challenger. Liberal Democrats seem not to regard Mr. Perry as a storm, but rather as Caliban, the disfigured and scary character who is another principal figure in the play. (Mr. Romney’s supporters, no doubt, hope that Mr. Perry is only a “tempest in a teapot.”)

The reader might think I am depending too much on coincidences here in drawing Mitt Romney and Rick Perry into this (how about Michele Bachmann as Ariel?), but of course, Shakesepeare’s 17th century plays are is so full of coincidences and references to other sources that I feel no compunction to hold back my devious way to bring up the current state of the 2012 presidential election and the contest for the GOP nomination.

While everyone hopes that the damage from Hurricane Irene will be minimal, there are many who wish that Tempest Perry will cause maximum damage. Some conservatives, unhappy with the bona fides of Mitt Romney as a true out-and-out man of the right are hoping that Mr. Perry will derail the Romney candidacy. Some liberals, fearful of a terrible defeat in November, 2012, hope that a man perceived as too far to the right, i.e., Mr. Perry, will be nominated, thus giving President Obama a better chance to win re-election.

Just as we do not know Hurricane Irene’s full course (as I write this), the impact of Tempest Perry is also unclear. He will now be subject to extraordinary scrutiny, and as he has already discovered, every word he utters will be examined under a political electron microscope. (Some of Mr. Perry’s recent utterances would indicate he is perhaps more like Caliban than his supporters would wish.) Mr. Perry will now have to stand on the stage with his rivals, and answer questions from the media and debate moderators that will contrast him to Mr. Romney, Mrs. Bachmann, and that most formidable GOP debater of all, Newt Gingrich.

I don’t know if it will be a tragedy, a comedy or a history, but it almost certainly will be quite a play to listen to and watch.

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-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site, The Prairie Editor Blog.

Ross Douthat, of Grand New Party and New York Times fame, counsels Mitt Romney to avoid overreacting to Rick Perry’s recent rise to the top of the Republican primary polls:

The first primary isn’t for four months — an eternity in politics. Perry has been exposed to the national spotlight for all of two weeks. He hasn’t shared a stage with the other candidates yet, hasn’t spent much time on the trail, hasn’t had to wed the vision of his candidacy to the more perishable reality of a campaign. In the next round of debates, Michele Bachmann and the lesser right-wing contenders will have every incentive to attack Perry, because he’s siphoning away their kind of voter. If Sarah Palin gets into the race (which I still doubt), she’ll have to take the fight to Perry as well. Meanwhile, unless Jon Huntsman starts getting traction, Romney doesn’t have to worry about any of the rival candidates making a play for his core supporters. (If Perry is the only plausible alternative, the Massachusetts governor has the moderate-East Coast vote locked up.) And once it becomes clear that Chris Christie (alas!) isn’t riding over the hill to save them, he can probably count on a steady drumbeat of favorable press from a movement-conservative establishment that’s heretofore been keeping him at arm’s length. So why not wait and see a little bit, let Perry have his moment in the sun, and save his punches for the months when more voters start to pay attention?

I think Douthat makes good sense. Perry backers like to cite the fact that he has never lost an election as evidence that his history and record will hold up to scrutiny. However, the national stage of a presidential campaign shines a brighter light on a candidate’s weaknesses than a statewide run. Time will tell if Perry and his much-heralded record can withstand the barrage of negative attacks that will inevitably come his way in the near future.

Magellan Strategies South Carolina Republican Primary

• Perry – 31%
• Romney – 20%
• Bachmann – 14%
• Cain – 9%
• Gingrich – 5%
• Paul – 4%
• Santorum – 2%
• Huntsman – 2%
• Undecided – 9%

Favorability Ratings

• Perry – 61/17
• Cain – 49/17
• Bachmann – 58/27
• Romney – 55/31
• Santorum – 26/32
• Gingrich – 35/53
• Paul – 28/48
• Huntsman – 9/44

Survey of 637 likely primary voters was conducted August 22-23 and has a margin of error of +/-3.88%.

Mitt Romney has been the frontrunner in these rankings since their inaugural edition.  Now, for the first time in this race, Romney’s dominate position as frontrunner is being seriously challenged.  The emergence of Rick Perry has put Gov. Romney in a difficult position, and with Perry taking the lead in a few new national polls as well as in Iowa, it is clear we now have the early formation of a two person race.  Due to his fundraising, his campaign experience, proportional allocation of early primaries, the Pawlenty withdraw, the question marks around Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, and the decisions of Paul Ryan and Chris Christie, I am still comfortable giving Romney the top spot in this ranking.  He still has a much larger lead in New Hampshire and Florida than Perry has in Iowa, and still polls better in the general election than the Governor of Texas.  But Romney’s status is being threatened and Perry has the potential to quickly supplant him as the frontrunner. The upcoming September debates should give us a good feel of how things will shape up for the rest of the campaign.  Also, with Ryan and Christie still refusing a run, it appears to be only a matter of time before the anti-Perry forces in Bushworld begin lining up behind Romney.

Rick Perry exploded on to the scene this month and completely upended the 2012 campaign. He has overshadowed the Ames straw poll winner,  Michele Bachmann, and has drowned out Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, and anyone else who could’ve benefited from their straw poll showings.  He has zoomed ahead of Mitt Romney in both PPP and Gallup national polls and is now topping Bachmann in Iowa.  Perry’s whirlwind first few weeks have not been without controversy.  Some of his comments on the campaign trail have revealed some of the tensions between Perry and his predecessor, President George W. Bush, and his staff.  While some Bush moneymen and supporters have lined up behind Perry, Karl Rove and others seem to be dead set against a Perry nomination.  That could be good news for Mitt Romney, especially if a Jeb Bush endorsement looms down the road. Still, Perry’s retail political talent and conservative credentials have quickly made him a top tier heavyweight in this fight, and may well make him the frontrunner in short order.

Tim Pawlenty’s campaign came to an abrupt end after his third place finish in the Ames straw poll.  Despite a capable organization and impressive record, Gov. Pawlenty was unable to keep up with the stronger personalities in the race.  This problem now seems to have passed on to Gov. Jon Huntsman, who finds his numbers in the polls getting weaker and weaker despite his absurd press attention getting greater and greater.  The Huntsman camp clearly saw Pawlenty’s fate and decided to shift strategy in a last gasp effort to avoid a total collapse.  Huntsman, who originally launched his campaign under the banner of civility, has begun attacking all of his opponents fiercely in the media in what appears to be an attempt to recreate the McCain 2000 Straight Talk Express.  Despite his abysmal poll numbers, Huntsman has been given a ludicrous amount of time on television to attack the character, intelligence, and honesty of his competitors.  This has made great fodder for the DNC and for the liberal media, but I doubt it will help the Huntsman campaign get off life support.

Rep. Michelle Bachmann’s momentum lasted all of one weekend as Rick Perry’s entry into the field has driven the Minnesota congresswomen off the front pages and down in the Iowa polls.  Rep. Bachmann has struggled to build on her Ames victory, and will need to find a way to cut through the Rick Perry cloud that now hangs over her campaign.  The congresswoman must also be worried about Sarah Palin, who has once again teased a potential run for President.  An entry by Palin, combined with Perry, could be too much for the Minnesotan to overcome.

Sarah Palin dropped by the Iowa State Fair the week of the Ames Straw Poll just to remind everyone that she is still pondering a presidential run.  Following Ames, Palin released a web video highlighting her Iowa trip and plugging her September 3 speech at a Tea Party rally back in Iowa.  The video had the clear tone and tempo of a campaign ad and was the biggest sign yet that Palin might be ready to jump in the race.  Reports suggest she could announce her candidacy at the Iowa rally, or simply set the stage for a later announcement.

Ron Paul came very close to winning the Ames straw poll, but like the other participants, has been drowned out by the entry of Rick Perry.  Paul continues to build on his previous campaign experience, having another successful money bomb fundraiser, and climbing higher in the polls than anyone initially thought he was capable of. Even the new Gallup poll has Paul neck-and-neck with President Obama in the general election.  It’s not hard to envision a scenario where Paul becomes a top 3 candidate, with Bachmann fading and Palin possibly deciding against a run. However, with Perry dominating the news and Romney still well positioned in the early states, it will be tough for Paul to get the media attention he deserves.

On to the rankings:

1. Mitt Romney
2. Rick Perry
3. Michele Bachmann
   
4. Sarah Palin
5. Ron Paul
   
6. Rudy Giuliani
7. Rick Santorum
   
8. Herman Cain
   
9. Jon Huntsman
10. Newt Gingrich

VP Watch: 1. Marco Rubio  2. Bob McDonnell  3. Chris Christie  4. Rob Portman  5. Paul Ryan