When I started doing this series of posts, back in March, it was to explore a popular meme of the moment, which was being phased as “Is Romney Collapsing?”

How times change.

Although Mitt Romney did not benefit immediately upon Mike Huckabee’s withdrawal in early May (he was the only candidate to drop slightly in May), he definitely took off in June:

This chart is based on calculating a rolling average of the five most recent generally-recognized polls. Candidates who are not consistently included in major polls are not included in the chart. The poll below shows the same data, but the format is to show only the average as of the final poll of each month.

Romney’s June surge looks even more impressive in the second chart, since it doesn’t include the little month-end downturn we see in the first. That was caused by an interesting phenomenon — Romney hit 30 in a couple of polls in the middle of the month, the first time he had done so in more than a year. When you’re consistently polling in the thirties you might start being considered a real frontrunner, as opposed to just primus inter pares. However the next two polls didn’t just bring him down a bit, they dropped him into the teens — still #1, but definitely in PIP territory. The question to be settled in July, then, is which were the anomalies — the thirties or the teens? (The safe guess is both).

A couple questions I raised with last month’s posting were answered to varying degrees. I asked about both Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich whether their sharp rises in May were just dead cat bounces. In Gingrich’s case, the answer is a resounding ‘Yes!’ — in June he lost all his May gains and more, continuing his trendline from Fall 201o. For Palin, the answer is more of a ‘Maybe’ — she lost about half her May gain in June.

Other notes:

• What the heck happened to Ron Paul? As you can see, his May-June numbers exactly paralleled Gingrich’s — not a good comparison. I wondered last month why Paul had shown such a sharp increase — it didn’t seem that the withdrawal of Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump should benefit a libertarian all that much. Seems like the poll respondents, given a chance for second thoughts, agreed.
• After an impressive entry into the polls, Herman Cain seems to have stalled.
• Michelle Bachmann, as you don’t need this chart to tell you, has had an impressive Spring. She’s still back in the pack, though, and she’s increasingly getting the Palin treatment, so the next couple months will tell us a lot.
• Pawlenty continues to bump along the bottom of the chart, though it looks like he might finally pass Gingrich.

Movement is from the last update one week ago:

Only candidates who have announced an official candidacy or who have greater than a 3% chance at the nomination are included.

In the past six weeks, Bachmann has risen 12.5 points. Over that same six weeks, Pawlenty has plummeted 14 points. Coincidence?

Iowa – particularly Ames – is shaping up as a Battle Royale between Bachmann and Pawlenty. Only one of them will leave standing. For the other, it will be their… well, their Waterloo.

The Republican contest for the presidential nomination is well underway, and following a few surprises of who is running and who is not, the full field is in sight, if not formally complete. Three potentially major candidates could yet enter; in fact former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman is now in. Texas Governor Rick Perry is probably going to enter, and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin just might enter. These latter three have noticeable bases in the GOP. Mr, Huntsman will be the most moderate candidate in the field, and yes, there are moderates remaining in the party, but he has little chance to win this cycle. Mr. Perry is a formidable figure, but he is a regional candidate. He would have impact because his region makes up an important base in the GOP, and there is no true southern candidate in the field. Mrs. Palin has a huge political personality, but many in her base have already gone to her friend Mrs. Michele Bachmann, and it’s late for her entry.

The three major contestants, as of now, are Mitt Romney, Mrs. Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty. Mr. Romney leads in most of the polls, leads in fundraising, has the highest name recognition, and his frontrunner status seems only to grow by the week.

Yet Mr. Romney is not the favorite of the conservative or Tea Party bases of the Republican Party. He has liabilities, most notably his association with Romneycare, his medical insurance plan from his years as governor of Massachusetts. President Obama’s Obamacare federal plan is enormously unpopular and unworkable, and in fact helped precipitate the Democrats’ stunning defeat in the 2010 elections. Mr. Romney’s opponents have tried to make Romneycare to be the same as Obamacare, and thus discrediting him. President Obama even disingenuously stated that Romneycare inspired his plan. Mr. Romney seemed slow in refuting these arguments against him, but when he did, he made the points that his plan was a state plan with many differences from the federal plan, and contained features insisted on by the Massachusetts legislature.

Mr. Romney is also a Mormon, a Christian group allegedly unpopular with some other conservative Christian groups.

Conservative talk show hosts have not truly warmed to him, nor have many conservative leaders and ideological spokespersons. In some ways, his candidacy is similar to John McCain’s in 2008 when McCain was not the favorite of the conservative base of his party.

Some suggest that there is a “runner-up syndrome” in the Republican Party in which the person who came in second in the previous cycle wins the nomination the next time out. Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole and McCain himself support this notion, and there seems to be some validity to it.

But I would suggest that there is also something else propelling Mr. Romney forward. This is the growing awareness that, whether he is an individual Republican’s first choice or not, Mitt Romney is the most likely person in the field to appeal to the American political center in 2012. This is critical because it is becoming clearer every day that President Obama is highly vulnerable for re-election, and that barring nominating a radical nominee unacceptable to the political center and independent voters, the GOP nominee will likely be the next president. It should be added that, in addition to a controversial nominee, a basic policy mistake could lead to a Republican defeat. Newt Gingrich has pointed out that such a mistake would be the poor presentation of medicare reform (this giving Mr. Obama an emotional issue with which to attack his
opponent).

Having gone through the 2008 presidential nominating campaign in 2008, and coming in second, Mr. Romney is more unlikely to make such a mistake, or to make a serious verbal blunder as his father did in 1968.

In 1964, Republicans nominated Barry Goldwater, and in 1972, Democrats nominated George McGovern. Each of these men were wildly popular with the ideological bases of their party, but had little appeal to the political center, and lost in landslides. Similarly, in 1984, Democrats nominated Walter Mondale who right away asserted that he would raise taxes, pleasing the old New Deal liberal base, but turning off younger independent voters. Mondale lost 49 of 50 states.

Many in the conservative media, as well as leaders of conservative groups, remain skeptical or opposed to Mr. Romney, but the polls are suggesting, for whatever they are worth at this point, that Mr. Romney’s appeal at the independent grass roots is growing. Mr. Romney’s political conduct of late indicates he has already figured much of this out.

All of this could change, of course, with some dramatic new developments, or a huge political gaffe, but we are only six months away from the first voting. I am not yet predicting a Romney triumph in Tampa. I also caution those who are writing Tim Pawlenty off in this contest. In spite of some mistakes, and lack of resources, he has shown himself to be the most imaginative of the GOP candidates so far, and will have opportunities to recover (unless Mrs. Bachmann demolishes him in Iowa and New Hampshire).

Another clue to Mr. Romneys’ growing strength is, and will be, the focus on him and attacks on him by President Obama and the national Democratic Party. I think Mr. Romney is the Republican the Democrats fear most as their opponent in 2012, and I suggest that will become more and more evident in the months to come.

_____________________________________________________________________

-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site, The Prairie Editor.

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 25%
  
• Michele Bachmann 18%
• Sarah Palin 11%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Rick Perry 7%
• Herman Cain 7%
• Jon Huntsman 6%
• Tim Pawlenty 6%
• Newt Gingrich 4%
• Someone else/Undecided 7%

(more…)

PPP (D) Texas 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 17%
• Michele Bachmann 16%
• Sarah Palin 14%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Herman Cain 8%
• Tim Pawlenty 6%
• Jon Huntsman 5%
• Someone else/Undecided 13%

If Sarah Palin didn’t run, and the choices were just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as the nominee?

• Mitt Romney 21%
• Michele Bachmann 19%
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Herman Cain 10%
• Tim Pawlenty 7%
• Jon Huntsman 5%
• Someone else/Undecided 13%

(more…)

Today, Alexander Burns, of Politico, penned an examination of Mitt Romney’s weaknesses as a candidate, some of which have arisen or become magnified recently:

His fundraising quarter wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t a tour de force either. Raising $18.25 million puts Romney way ahead of the GOP pack but behind Romney’s own 2007 performance in his first quarter as a declared candidate. It’s half what George W. Bush raised during his first quarter in 1999 and well below Romney’s own initial goals.

…His polling is solid, but stalled. In an April WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll, Romney had 36 percent support in the Granite State. In a new WMUR/UNH poll released yesterday, that number was 35 percent. For a candidate who’s had a strong couple of months, delivering his own message well and facing virtually no attacks from other Republicans, the lack of movement is troubling.

…His personal shortcomings haven’t disappeared. The biggest vulnerability in Romney’s operation may be the candidate himself, whose awkwardness and tone-deafness on the stump are already cropping up as potential areas of concern. In a business where one bad gaffe can make the difference between political life and death, Romney is living on the edge.

Now, I know this will probably infuriate our thriving Rombot community. While Burns raises some valid points, I highlighted the article not to impugn Mitt but to inspire some of the vigorous, enlightening debate that has made Race42012 unique in the conservative blogosphere. So, with that, have at it in the comments!

Things haven’t been pleasant for Governor Pawlenty as of late. His fundraising hasn’t been great, his poll numbers are not going up, his fellow Minnesotan (or is she an Iowan now?) Michele Bachmann is the latest flavor of the month and his debate performance was almost universally panned. However, there is some good news for the former Minnesota Governor coming out of Florida. It seems that the next 3 Speakers of the Florida House (yes we pick them this far in advance; don’t ask long story) have signed up with Team Pawlenty:

The Buzz is that Will Weatherford, Chris Dorworth, and Richard Corcoran – each slated to be a future Florida House Speaker – are preparing to endorse former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty for president. Endorsements obviously don’t win races, but it’s a sign that Pawlenty is picking up some significant support among the GOP leadership in Florida.

Now, I know Representative Weatherford, and he’s a great guy; any candidate would be lucky to have him on their side. Representative Dorworth on the other hand, well he has some financial, legal, and other woes. The value of a Dorworth endorsement is up for debate. As for Representative Cochran, I know he is a very, very conservative freshman legislator, but little else.

Governor Pawlenty’s campaign has hit a rough patch, and these Speakers-to-be obviously know that. The fact that the Governor was able to persuade these three legislators to endorse him shows that he’s not a man to be counted out. At least not yet.

No matter who our eventual nominee is, one of the first things the Republican presidential candidate will have to decide is who he (or she) puts on the ticket as VP. Traditionally, many candidates choose from the pool of their defeated rivals, hoping to select a running-mate who has survived the vetting process in tact, but will bring something to the table which they themselves lack. One might, for example, imagine Mitt Romney selecting someone like Michelle Bachmann or Herman Cain as a VP, to try and court disaffected tea partiers. In my opinion, however, it would behoove the eventual nominee to look beyond his/her former opponents. Thus, here are a few suggestions for possible running-mates who are not running for President, and the plusses, and minuses, they bring to the table.

1. Luis Fortuno:

I’ve been a Fortuno-watcher since his successful resident commissioner run in 2004, but for those not familiar with a man called the “Chris Christie of the Caribbean” by sum, here are the highlights. Fortuno was elected Resident Commissioner (that’s the sitting but non-voting Puerto Rican member of the house) on the ballot-line of the New Progressive Party, the statehood party in Puerto Rico. While the NPP is considered the slightly more conservative party in PR, most NPPers elected Resident Commissioner, like those of the Popular Democratic Party, sit as Democrats; Fortuno broke with this tradition, and sat as a Republican. He was endorsed in that race by the Club for Growth, and, in 2008, ran for Governor of Puerto Rico, and won comfortably. All reports are that Fortuno has governed quite conservatively while in office–hence the “Christie of the Caribbean” nickname, and with a particular eye toward shrinking the size and scope of the Puerto Rican government. As a governor of one of our extra-continental territories, Fortuno has gained international experience greater than most governors. Needless to say, his selection would send a powerful message about the GOP’s openness to Hispanic voters.

Down sides: Fortuno suffers from low name recognition (how many of you, my readers, have heard of him)? In addition, he would probably need to establish residency in one of the states; so long as it was a different state than the nominee, he’d be fine on this angle. I’m not enough of an election law expert to know how much of a problem this actually is, but it could be a hick-up. There’s also the “not ready for the national stage” issue. Sarah Palin was caught off-guard by her selection as the nominee, and attacked brutally once that selection was made. Fortuno would have to be ready for this level of scrutiny on day 1; is he ready, and equally to the point, willing, to go through that?

Conclusion: I think Fortuno would be an excellent choice for any of the top-tier candidates. If he is indeed a Christie-like figure who is Hispanic and has some international experience, he could be ideal. He would need more vetting, but could be a huge win.

2. Bobby Jindal:

He’s a young governor with a planet-sized brain, who has governed Louisiana, and can boast considerable accomplishments. Democrats are not really fielding a candidate against him in 2011, meaning he should cruise to reelection. What he lacks in charisma, he makes up for in pure intellect, and he has a great American Dream story. There’s very little not to like about Bobby Jindal.

Down sides: Jindal flubbed his 2009 SOTU response pretty badly (not that it’s really possible to give a stellar SOTU response). This is mostly important because it demonstrates that Jindal isn’t likely to light up a crowd with his charisma. If a candidate is looking for flash, Jindal might not be the guy. Also, can one actually make it to the top in LA without skeletons? Jindal seems clean in that regard, but the media will go after the eventual VP nominee like dogs on a bone. There’s also the question of whether Jindal will actually want it. He’ll be just starting his second term, and may feel he has unfinished business in LA he needs to take care of before seeking the national spotlight.

Conclusion: Another very very solid choice I could get excited about. Perhaps a better match for a candidate who can excite the base, but who needs to counter a light-weight narrative.

3. Bob McDonnell:

Though he’s been eclipsed of late by Chris Christie, the man who won at the same time he did, Bob McDonnell is an impressive figure in his own right. He’s governed Virginia well, and sports very good approval ratings in a must-win state for Republicans. McDonnell is a solid social conservative, though not in a super-demonstrative way, and the so-con card has been played against him–hard–already by the beltway media, with no result whatsoever. McDonnell is a good speaker and, beneficially, might actually be interested in the job, as he’s term limited in 2013 anyway.

Down sides: Three years as governor isn’t a lot of experience, and could be pounced on by the Obama campaign. McDonnell’s so-con stuff could be more of an issue in a national election than it was in Virginia, though it would be a stretch.

Conclusion: It’s a little early, but I think this is overwhelmed by the potential plusses. A solid choice for any northern Republican candidate looking to add some southern support.

4. Marco Rubio:

Do I really need to discuss the plusses Rubio would bring? Let me pick up on a few aside from the obvious he’s-a-ridiculously-charismatic-Hispanic-from-a-swing-state ones. He’s on the senate foreign relations committee, meaning he’ll have more of a foreign policy bent than you’d expect from a first-term senator. He actually won non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida, which might translate to greater shares of the Hispanic vote nation-wide. Finally, he would make it incredibly difficult for Obama to win Florida.

Down sides: Two years in the senate really isn’t enough time to build the kind of experience you want from a VP candidate. Also, Rubio might be a bit too Bushlike for some in the tea parties, once he moves to a national level.

Conclusion: I’d prefer to save Rubio for 2016 or 2020, but would still love him as a VP pick.

4. Pat Toomey:

His 2004 campaign was one of the first I ever worked on. He was tea party way before it was cool, but has made peace with the notably prickly PA GOP establishment. His credentials as a full-spectrum conservative are hard to beat, and he’s played an out-sized role in economic matters even as a first-termer. Oh, and he could put PA in play.

Down sides: pretty much the same as Rubio. Plus, he’s not a super-charismatic guy; more of a policy wonk (though he does fire people up).

Conclusion: Another excellent choice, but perhaps too soon.

5. Susana Martinez:

A conservative Republican, Hispanic woman governing a swingy border state, who has 52 percent approval ratings when many other newly-elected Republicans are taking it on the chin? The case for her is self-evident.

Down sides: Plucking a governor halfway through her term is risky, both for the presidential candidate and the governor’s future political career. Martinez is definitely one to watch, but should we perhaps get her reelected first?

Conclusion: I really, really like Susana Martinez, but it’s almost certainly too soon.

6. Nikki Haley:

She’s got the same plusses as Martinez, but is perhaps a shade more conservative and not from a swing state.

Down sides: The same minuses as Martinez as well.

Conclusion: I also really like Haley, but it’s probably too early, and she doesn’t seem interested.

7. Allen West:

He’s a fiery tea party sensation, African-American, with an impressive (and controversial) military background. Plus, his district could get tougher after redistricting, or cease to exist altogether. A West selection would be an instant hit with the base.

Down sides: The media attack on West would be brutal, relentless, and make Sarah Palin 2008 look like an elementary-school kick-ball game by comparison. Also, a first-term congressman is a bit thin on qualifications.

Conclusion: way too soon, but a rising star nonetheless.

8. Chris Christie:

Everybody knows Chris Christie, and why his selection as VP would be awesome.

Down sides: He really doesn’t seem interested in the slightest. Plus, we actually may need him more as governor of New Jersey than in the VP slot.

Conclusion: 2016.

9. Tom Coburn:

Mr. conservative, a dedicated spending hawk who has nevertheless demonstrated an ability to work across the isle. Has a great personal story.

Down sides: Oklahoma is pretty solidly in the red column already.

Conclusion: An excellent choice for someone like Romney, Huntsman or maybe Pawlenty.

10. Paul Ryan:

He’s super-intelligent, and has been out-front on the issues nearest and dearest to the public’s concern at the moment.

Down sides: He’s already being demagogued, and we almost certainly need him in the house more than we need him as VP.

Conclusion: He needs to fight the good fight in congress.

Ron Paul has purchased his first advertising of the primary season in the form of statewide radio ads in Iowa. The spot is playing in one station in every Iowa market and is running him around $75,000.

Meanwhile, Tim Pawlenty is extending his small TV ad buy (originally costing just $38,000 for five days) for his government shutdown ad. The ad will continue running in the Des Moines and Ames markets for one more week now, at an additional cost of $37,500.

Goodbye, Jon Huntsman:

Boston, MA – Mitt Romney today earned the support of Utah elected officials.

“These endorsements represent the deep level of support that I have enjoyed over the years in Utah,” said Mitt Romney. “I formed a strong bond with many Utah residents and officials during my time running the Olympics and continue to appreciate the support of so many in the state.”

The full list of all 63 are below the fold.
(more…)

After hauling in $2 million last quarter, Gingrich reports $200,000 cash on hand with a $1 million debt. Romney has nearly $13 million cash on hand as of July 1, augmented by the $12 million the Restore Our Future Super PAC took in as well.

¹General election funds
²Self-funding loans

Thanks to James Pethokoukis, I came across this fascinating Forbes opinion piece:

Which leaves a question. What was the point of Reaganomics? Starving the beast? None of the above. The point was to get the private sector booming. And could we ever use this as an objective today.

The prophet of the renaissance of the 1980s was the Reagan budget team’s economic forecaster, John Rutledge. Rutledge noticed that in the dozen years prior to 1981, money had been fleeing from the real economy, what with its taxes, regulations, and currency devaluations, and into tangible safe havens – especially commodities: oil, gold, and land.

Rutledge calculated that over the 1970s, some $11 trillion had migrated out of real economic enterprises into these hedges – a whopping number. And yet if the burdens on the economy were to lessen, a prodigious amount of money stood to flow back into the real sector, with epic growth, employment, and profits in tow.

This is of course what happened in the 1980s, as taxes got cut, regulation stymied, and money stabilized. GDP growth was north of 4% per year for a seven-year run, job creation was measured in the eight digits, and the stock market was off on a 15-fold advance. All because huge money had been parked elsewhere waiting for the real sector to become attractive again.

Sound familiar? Today, we see gold at $1500 an ounce, oil crossing $100, massive retained profits at corporations, and excess reserves at banks. And we’ve just endured a real estate bubble. If economically inert investments – vehicles that are not themselves businesses or their financing instruments – are capturing an extra-large portion of our financial capital, our economy is underperforming. As Forbes columnist John Tamny says, $1500 gold is the recession.

This rather summarily refutes the frequent demagoguing of Reaganomics by Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media – you know, the “trickle-down” policies that provided windfalls for the rich and the military-industrial complex at the detriment to the middle and lower classes.

The questions now become: which Republican candidate has proposed or will propose the plan most conducive to revitalizing the private sector, as Reaganomics did, and which has the greatest chance of actually getting those reforms passed?

Scott Conroy has an article in Real Clear Politics about the volunteers, Organize4Palin, who are building a foundation from which Sarah Palin could run if she decides to throw her hat into the ring. The article mainly focuses on their efforts in Iowa.

Here are a few excerpts:

PELLA, Iowa — Last December, Michelle McCormick penned a letter to Sarah Palin, addressed it to her political action committee, and dropped it in the mail.

An unassuming 28-year-old north Texan who works in the oil and gas industry, McCormick had experienced a family crisis similar to the one that had befallen Palin’s family when the former Alaska governor’s daughter Bristol became pregnant in 2008. McCormick wanted to let Palin know that how the vice presidential candidate handled the situation while in the national spotlight helped guide McCormick through her own family difficulties.

McCormick didn’t harbor much hope that she would get a response, but about three weeks later she received a personal reply from Palin.

Six months later, McCormick now spends every weekend (and an increasing number of weekdays) in the nation’s first voting state of Iowa attending GOP Central Committee meetings, collecting names of activists in counties across the state, and doing other volunteer organizing in advance of a Palin presidential campaign that she considers inevitable.

…

McCormick said that she is “100 percent” sure Palin will run for president, and is considering moving to Iowa full time while she awaits an announcement. If she does move to the Hawkeye State, McCormick would be following in the footsteps of Peter Singleton, a 58-year-old California lawyer who has been leading the charge in Iowa, where he has made his home for the past eight months.

When Singleton first visited the state in August 2010 — with a vague notion of planting seeds for Palin ahead of the caucuses that were still a year-and-a-half away — he was so unfamiliar with the political environment here that he had to Google “election AND Iowa” before plotting his initial moves ahead of the midterms that November. Almost a year later, Singleton is no longer a political novice.

…

At the cookout that followed the premiere of the film [the Undefeated], it was clear that it was Singleton — and not any paid Palin staffer — who was running the show as he dealt with logistics and worked to introduce attendees to one another.

With just a short time to prepare the event, Singleton showed off the reach of his Iowa rolodex as he took the lead in cultivating an invitation list that resulted in nearly 1,000 Iowans attending the barbeque outside the Pella Opera House. The crowd included local residents and rank-and-file Palin supporters, who mingled with a few prominent state Republicans, including 2010 GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats and Secretary of State Matt Schultz.

…

Last Tuesday in Pella, Palin had an opportunity to signal to those devoted volunteers to pack up and go home when asked by this reporter what she thought about their efforts. Surrounded by a crush of supporters and journalists on her way into the cookout, Palin instead replied that she “greatly appreciated” the efforts of volunteer organizers, especially because of their willingness to support someone who is “untraditional” and “not a part of the Republican establishment.”

This encouragement is certain to inspire them to redouble their efforts going forward.

It is a very large, well researched article. Be sure to read it in its entirety.

Another poll from New Hampshire:

University of New Hampshire / WMUR-TV New Hampshire Republican Primary

• Romney – 35% (41)
• Bachmann – 12% (4)
• Giuliani – 7% (9)
• Paul – 7% (6)
• Perry – 4% (-)
• Palin – 3% (5)
• Pawlenty – 3% (3)
• Cain – 2% (4)
• Huntsman – 2% (3)
• Gingrich – 1% (3)
• Johnson – 1% (*)
• Santorum – 1% (3)
• Roemer – * (0)
• Someone else / Don’t Know – 21% (18)

Favorability Ratings

• Romney – 68/24
• Bachmann – 52/23
• Giuliani – 56/33
• Cain – 32/13
• Pawlenty – 39/20
• Perry – 34/15
• Santorum – 33/21
• Huntsman – 19/23
• Johnson – 12/17
• Paul – 40/45
• Palin – 41/52
• Gingrich – 25/62

General Election Matchups

• Romney – 47%
• Obama – 43%

• Obama – 47%
• Bachmann – 41%

• Obama – 47%
• Pawlenty – 38%

Survey of 357 likely GOP primary voters and 773 adults (for general election matchups) was conducted June 21-July 1. Primary matchups have a margin of error of +/-5.2%, and general election matchups are +/-3.5%. Numbers in parentheses are from the last UNH poll done for the Boston Globe ending June 8.

The LA Times brings us the story of a Tea Party hero snubbing his former boss to endorse Mitt Romney:

Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who worked for two years as a top aide to then-Gov. Jon Huntsman in Utah, is passing over his onetime boss to endorse former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the 2012 Republican presidential primary.

In an interview, Chaffetz said he broke the news last week to Huntsman, who he said “will be very formidable in the future.” …

Chaffetz’s rebuff of Huntsman comes on the heels of what has been an uneven campaign debut for Huntsman. His official announcement speech drew a small crowd at a New Jersey waterfront park last month. Within 10 days Huntsman had raised $4.1 million… But a share of the money — less than half the total, according to a campaign official — came from Huntsman himself, who originally said he would not self-finance his campaign.

While Huntsman enjoyed high approval ratings as governor of Utah, Romney is viewed in the state as a beloved adopted son after his management of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. A poll in February by the Deseret News found that Utah voters favored Romney over Huntsman by a margin of 56% to 26%.

Romney also appears to have the edge among political officials in the state. Sen. Orrin Hatch told the Herald Journal of Logan in February that he would back Romney. The Salt Lake Tribune reported in February that current Gov. Gary Herbert, who served as Huntsman’s lieutenant governor, was already committed to backing Romney, and that Sen. Mike Lee, who worked as Huntsman’s general counsel, was still on the fence.

Romney met with Lee at his Capitol Hill office last week.

By the way, if anyone is keeping track, Romney now has three endorsements from sitting Governors — Herbert (UT), Heineman (NE), and Otter (ID) — as well as three endorsements from sitting Senators — Brown (MA), Hatch (UT), and Risch (ID). As far as I know, the only other candidate with an endorsement from either of those two groups is Gingrich, who has the backing of Deal (GA).

Sometimes you can gain insight into a Republican by what the Democrats say about him. Back in 2008, when Pawlenty was being considered for the Vice-Presidential slot by John McCain, the Minnesota Independent tried to sideswipe Pawlenty with this quote in an article entitled, How Tim Pawlenty Made his Case for VP by Wrecking the Minnesota Economy, (by Britt Robson):

Voters across the country might be interested to know that no one has been more influential than Pawlenty in reversing Minnesota’s longstanding tradition of using progressive taxes to make prudent but significant investments in our social and physical infrastructure — education, transportation, health care and the environment  (emphasis mine).

Among complaints Robson makes about Pawlenty:

“A biennial budget that contained more than $2.7 billion worth of tax relief” (It was more than twice as large, per capita, as any other state tax cut in the nation.)

“The very next year …returned hundreds of millions of dollars through an income tax cut and reduced vehicle license fees”.

“Lowered property taxes”

“Rebated $700 million worth of sales taxes back to citizens”

“Pawlenty had signed a pledge not to raise taxes. As billions of dollars’ worth of state programs were slashed, most of them in health and human services, the governor stood fast on his pledge”

“To dramatize just how radical this no-taxes stance was… Pawlenty has tenaciously rebuffed any income tax increases during his six years in office”

I can only say one thing to Governor Pawlenty: “With enemies like these, who needs friends?”  Maybe you should have these Democrats campaign with you or have Robson create your next campaign ad.

Do any of you remember these predictions made right here on Race4 just over six weeks ago?

Submitted on 2011/05/11 at 10:08 pm

Sarah Palin will announce on July 3rd or 4th.
And then,only then,the competition starts.

Sarahcuda can raise as much money as she wants.Millions of her
supporters will be trowing money at her.

I for one will raise lots of money for her,she will have as much as she needs and wants!

Submitted on 2011/05/15 at 3:33 am

NO!!!

Now is not the time!!!

Sarah Palin will declare on July 3rd or 4th!

Write it down!!!

Submitted on 2011/05/17 at 12:39 am

Sarah Palin will declare on July 3rd or 4th.
And the money floodgate will bust open.

Governor Palin will have all the money she will ever need and want!!!

Submitted on 2011/05/16 at 7:53 pm

Nothing will happen until July 3rd or 4th.
That’s when Sarah Palin will declare!!!

Everything until then is side show,circus clowns getting America ready
for the main act,Arctic Fox!

Submitted on 2011/05/21 at 2:04 pm

Sarah Palin will declare on July 3rd or 4th.
Write it down!

Submitted on 2011/05/21 at 2:24 pm

I’ll say it slow and easy this time:

July 3rd or 4th!!!

Well, July 3rd and 4th has come and gone, and Mrs. Palin still is sitting on the sidelines. Now what?

Mitt Romney held a town hall in Wolfboro, New Hampshire, today. Here is the video:

Mitt handles a wide range of questions touching upon areas dealing with both foreign and domestic issues. I have little respect for candidates who only take questions from friendly media types or from audience members in carefully controlled and screened “town halls” consisting of nobody but the candidate’s activists. Mitt got asked some serious hardball questions. He handled it in stride.

Evangelical Christians will finally have their candidate in this race if (and when) Rick Perry finally jumps in the fray – or at least their leaders will. Since early June, evangelical leaders have been coordinating support for Perry and urging him to run.

TIME Magazine has the scoop:

TIME has learned, a group of prominent figures on the Christian Right held a conference call to discuss their dissatisfaction with the current GOP presidential field, and agreed that Rick Perry would be their preferred candidate if he entered the race. Among those on the call were Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council; David Barton, the Texas activist and go-to historian for the Christian Right; and John Hagee, the controversial San Antonio pastor whose endorsement John McCain rejected in 2008.

Religious conservatives have often played a substantial role in choosing past Republican nominees, but leaders on the Christian Right have been conspicuously quiet so far in this campaign season. Privately, however, they are enthusiastic about Perry and are encouraging the Texas governor to throw his ten-gallon hat into the ring…

Perry has been doing a lot of praying in the past year. On the morning of his inauguration to a new term as governor, he appeared at a prayer breakfast attended by some Christian Right heavyweights who have been following the Texan’s activities on their behalf. “People flew in from across the country for this,” said one participant. The breakfast was organized by David Lane, an activist from California who has set up “Pastor Policy Briefings” in at least 14 states over the past several years that have been attended by nearly 10,000 pastors. Doug Wead, a conservative historian who is close to the Bush family, described Lane this way on his blog: “Lane is the mysterious, behind the scenes, evangelical kingmaker who stormed into Iowa in 2008 and tilted the whole thing from Romney to Huckabee.”

Lane is the man to have on your team if you want to organize religious conservatives to support your campaign. And he’s the one behind that June conference call in which key players of the Christian Right decided to do just that for Rick Perry.

Meanwhile, Americans for Rick Perry, an independent group supporting Perry for President, is building a campaign organization likely to transfer over to Perry when he jumps in the race. Today, the group announced that they have hired Craig Schoenfeld, a veteran Iowa strategist who had been leading Newt Gingrich’s Iowa campaign up until the Newtiny. Schoenfeld has a long history in Iowa politics, including being George W. Bush’s political director back in 2000.

Schoenfeld has already been busy contacting other Iowa players and reportedly offering them six-week contracts to work with the organization — a term which would take them through the Ames Straw Poll in mid August.

Bob Schuman, who runs Americans for Rick Perry, says he has also been in contact with other key Iowansregarding a Perry run – including Bob Vander Plaats, a key figure in the Huckabee primary.

Mike Huckabee’s daughter Sarah has officially signed on as one of Tim Pawlenty’s “senior advisers”:

The campaign said Ms. Sanders would help Mr. Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota, achieve the victory that Mr. Huckabee captured in the Iowa caucuses in 2008. Mr. Pawlenty is facing tough competition in Iowa, including Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, a Tea Party favorite who was born in the Hawkeye State…

Mr. Pawlenty’s campaign said Ms. Sanders would initially focus on expanding the governor’s grass-roots efforts in Iowa with the aim of winning the summer’s straw poll.

But the campaign is clearly hoping that the staff-level hire will suggest that Mr. Pawlenty will have the support of Mr. Huckabee, who swept to a victory in Iowa with support from the many evangelical Christians in the Republican primary.

Hey, at this point Pawlenty needs any kind of help he can get. Perhaps Sarah’s presence will attract some former Huckabee supporters over to Tim’s side.

UPDATE: Politico reports that Sarah will take over the “Iowa Straw Poll effort” for the Pawlenty campaign.

What an amateurish campaign.

How ironic that the most intolerant and bigoted campaign organization in recent memory is being led by a black man from the Jim Crow South.

Restore Our Future, the Super PAC that is backing Mitt Romney, has announced they raised $12 million. Chris Cillizza notes:

“There is tremendous support across the country for Mitt Romney,” said Charlie Spies, one of the PAC’s founders. “Americans are coming out in support of Governor Romney because they are confident he has the experience to turn our economy around.”

Though the PAC, which can accept unlimited donations but must report those contributions (and the names of the men and women who made them) to the Federal Election Commission, was formed late last year, active fundraising began in April, according to sources familiar with the operation.

The group ended June with $12 million on hand, a sign of the minuscule overhead for these sorts of groups. Spies, who served as general counsel for the former Massachusetts governor’s 2008 presidential bid, Carl Forti, Romney’s political director in that race, and Larry McCarthy, a member of Romney’s media consulting team, make up the board of directors for Restore Our Future.

Any nerd who obsessively pays attention to global affairs like I do has noticed the Arab Spring rumblings beginning to spread beyond the borders of the Arab world.  Today, non-Muslim Europe came face to face with the anti-government protests that have been roiling the Middle East for the past year.  Europe’s predominantly Christian nation of Belarus faced large, non-violent protests against the government, during which 140 demonstrators were aggressively corralled by plain clothes police officers into buses headed who-knows-where.

The Spring uprisings may completely change the face of the world in a matter of years, or even months.  Will the next U.S. President have the wisdom and fortitude to set a positive example for these rapidly changing countries–to show them that what they need is civil liberty, not repression; due process, not torture and secret prisons; habeas corpus, not indefinite detention; free markets, not socialism or corporatism; free trade, not subsidization and protectionism; austerity, not money printing and debt accumulation; and a foreign policy of peace, not one of transnational nannying and war-mongering?  Barack Obama has done the opposite in every one of these regards.  Will #45 be the role model that this brave, new world needs, or will he/she merely become Obama/Bush Lite?

Watch the new ad here.

Pawlenty’s new Iowa ad draws attention to a 2004 transit strike and a 2005 government shutdown in Minnesota, both of which occurred under Pawlenty’s leadership as Governor. The ad strikes me as quite ineffective on a number of levels…

I. Pawlenty Causes Strike?
First and foremost, the script sounds like it could have been written by a Pawlenty opponent instead of by the Pawlenty campaign. “Minnesota gripped by one of the longest transit strikes in history. Why? Because of Governor Tim Pawlenty…”

“Minnesota government shutdown. Why? Because Tim Pawlenty…”

The wording (some would say ‘rhetoric’) of this ad is simply bizarre to me. Are transit strikes and government shutdowns desirable outcomes of effective governing now? It’s just weird.

II. Pawlenty the Hard___
Pawlenty has a reputation of being too nice. Too weak. I heard it multiple times from family and friends over the Fourth of July weekend. He’s a nice guy, but he’s too weak to be a good President. Apparently, one of the ways Team Pawlenty plans to counter this is to highlight Pawlenty’s utter refusal to “cave” to the opposition, creating a stark us-versus-them storyline. Instead of coming across as “Pawlenty is a firm, principled leader,” in the context of this ad it comes across as, “I refuse to work well with others and cause things to grind to a halt.”

III. Pawlenty Wins!
The end of both of those stories is an even weaker part of this ad. The narrator simply intones, “Result? Pawlenty won.”

Pawlenty won? Was it a personal vendetta? Or was Pawlenty fighting for the people of Minnesota? This is the strongest initial response I had from watching this ad. More than that, I want to know a lot more about what the actual results were from these two stories. Since the theme of Pawlenty’s campaign is now “Results, not rhetoric,” would it be too much to ask what his results were? Other than him winning, that is?

IV. The Current Shutdown
The final, and indirect, failure of this ad is that it will draw attention to the current Minnesota government shutdown – which will not result in favorable press for Pawlenty. Pawlenty can rightfully claim that he balanced the budget while he was Governor, but once folks begin exploring what exactly that entailed the story becomes much less positive for him.

The state Constitution requires Governors to balance the budget, and so Pawlenty did as he was required – by utilizing some special accounting tricks and one-time funds. Under Pawlenty, the state stopped including inflation in budget projections, a nice way to “cut” the size of the budget. The state government also delayed some of the payments it owed as a way to balance a budget in one biennium (which, of course, simply shifted the burden into the next biennium). And in order to fill budget gaps, Pawlenty was creative in finding cash: he borrowed funds that were to go to school districts, used federal stimulus dollars, and took tobacco settlement money and put it all toward balancing the budget.

For instance, Pawlenty notes that his last budget as Governor ended with a $200 million surplus. What he doesn’t mention is that at the end of his term, the state government owed $4 billion to Minnesota schools because of all the school money Pawlenty diverted.

Did Pawlenty balance the budget every year as Governor? Absolutely. But the methods he utilized to do so have (at the very least, indirectly) contributed to the situation in which Minnesota currently finds itself – another government shutdown.

So this ad mentioning a government shutdown is curiously timed to be released during another Minnesota government shutdown. Only I’m guessing Pawlenty doesn’t want to take credit for this current one.

Most of our GOP candidates spent the Fourth of July walking in parades in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. The Des Moines Register has a nice roundup of who went where – with a special focus on Michele Bachmann, who seems to have been the most well received of the field.

Bachmann and Gingrich were both in the Clear Lake parade, and while Gingrich’s reception was lukewarm at best, the DMR reports the crowd’s reaction to Bachmann thusly:

The reaction to Bachmann was not unlike a crowd doing the wave at a sporting event. As she approached, people jumped to their feet, yelled “Michele, over here!” and applauded wildly.

Kim Bamrick, 46, an independent voter from Rockwell, pushed her grandson Carson, 3, forward so that Bachmann could meet him. A teenage girl told Bachmann, “I love you!” A man called out, “Good luck, Michele! Kick their butts.”

A team of supporters and Bachmann’s blue campaign coach trailed her, adding its horn to the emergency sirens and marching band music.

That kind of reception is why Michele is currently the frontrunner for the Ames straw poll. A Bachmann spokeswoman also told reporters that beginning Thursday night, Michele will be more or less spending the next six weeks in Iowa, leading up to Ames.

And Rick Santorum wins the award for most Fourth of July parades, marching in three of them yesterday – one in the morning, one at 2:30, and one at 5:30. He’s certainly working hard to try and break out of the polling basement.

Meanwhile, Romney, Huntsman, and Cain all decided to do parades in New Hampshire instead, and Mitt and Jon ended up in the same Amherst parade. The Wall Street Journal reports a brief, friendly exchange between the two after Mitt approached Huntsman to welcome him to New Hampshire. Romney participated in a parade in Laconia, NH later that afternoon as well.

Team Pawlenty is up with another TV ad in Iowa this morning:

The Pawlenty campaign isn’t answering questions about the size or scope of this ad buy.

I’ll have my thoughts up in a later post. Until then, what do you think?

UPDATE: Politico has learned that this ad buy is a five-day run in the Des Moines and Ames markets that cost the Pawlenty campaign just $38,000.

As our resident obscure candidate tracker – let’s get right into the news of the odder, more obscure candidates running for the Republican nomination.

Jimmy McMillan – McMillan has a documentary in the works. He’s self-financing a documentary entitled, “DAMN!” that details his history of activism. McMillan, who made headlines in 2010 when non-NYers first saw him running for Governor of New York on the “Rent is Too Damn High” Party ticket. McMillan is a character in New York politics who said that he’s going after, “Obama’s black ass.” He’s run previously for Mayor of New York and Governor of New York under his Rent is Too High Party. Oh yea – and he’s an action figure now too, if you’re interested.

Jonathon Sharkey – Former Minnesota Governor candidate and self-proclaimed Vampyre Jonathon Sharkey has formally announced for President as a Republican. Canadian sports website SLAM! interviewed Sharkey recently and he gave a few interesting quotes. Here are a few of them: (more…)

Gov. Gary Johnson issued the following statement on the Fourth of July:

As I’ve traveled the country over the past many months, I have been known on occasion to ask crowds, given what’s going on in Washington, DC, if they want a Revolution.  Now that I am a declared candidate for president, I’ve tried to cut down on the references to revolution – with the amount of travel I do, it would be really inconvenient to end up on a government watch list.

But as we celebrate Independence Day, it is entirely appropriate to consider the possibility that we need another Declaration of Independence.  There’s nothing wrong with the old one.  I just think we perhaps need another one.

While the list of grievances that prompted the original Declaration was quite long, and included much that doesn’t apply  — yet — when it comes to our relationship with our own federal government, there are a couple that jump off the page when you look at them today.

Consider this:  Much of the motivation behind the Declaration of Independence in 1776 stemmed from repressive taxation.  The Tea Act, the Stamp Act…..we all remember the history lesson.  What we sometimes forget, though, is what brought those taxes about:  Britain was heavily in debt.  Much of that debt was the consequence of having engaged in several costly wars in a short period of time – including the French and Indian War.

Lacking financing options, Britain turned to taxing the Colonies to erase the red ink – justifying it in part on the basis that the colonists were made more secure by that war.  With a debt ceiling about to be breached and the government’s financing options becoming more limited, and some of the rhetoric we are hearing from the White House and others, does that scenario sound familiar or what?

Also chief among the grievances which prompted the Declaration was the chronic abuse by monarchy in Britain of its right to “Assent to Laws”.  Laws passed by the colonies, before they could take effect or be enforced, had to be “assented” to by the Crown – and the Crown used that right to block the colonies from governing themselves and adapting their own laws to their own needs, innovations and best interests.

While the governance structure is a little different, is there any real dispute that our federal government has quite successfully created its own right of “Assent” in far too many areas of our lives and economy?  Go to any state in the union, and you will find innovations, ideas and priorities that have the support of the legislature or governor, but which are blocked by the Feds. Health care, Medicaid, highway construction, gun rights, education, drug laws – the list goes on and on of issues in which the states are not even remotely free to act without the permission of an all-knowing federal government.    Just this week, the Department of Justice once again reminded the states that implementing medicinal marijuana laws could bring the full weight of the federal government down on them.  All across the country, states are having to submit health care and Medicaid plans to Washington for permission to innovate, save money, and fashion programs that might actually work without bankrupting us.

Let there be no mistake; our government in Washington has done a masterful job of reestablishing the right to Assent of Laws.  We may not have to wait for the King’s blessing any more, but if you are a governor or state legislature, just try doing something innovative or important with the Assent of Washington.

And of course, there is whole notion of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.  Washington’s interference in those would require a book.

Yes, perhaps the time has come for a new Declaration of Independence – or at least a refresher course on the old one.  The good news:  As I travel the land and talk with Americans of all political persuasions and walks of life, it is clear that the same spirit of independence, the same desire for liberty, and the same willingness to push back against over-reaching government that created this great nation is alive and well today.

Americans are once again demanding Independence – and I am confident we will once again prevail.

Amb. Jon Huntsman, Jr. issued the following statement on the Fourth of July:

Great to see the stars and stripes on display and all the families celebrating the birth of our great nation in New Hampshire. I hope everyone has a safe and happy July 4 holiday with friends and family.