The Game-Changer
Remember a few weeks back, the Palindrones were telling us that the release of The Undefeated, the Palin documentary, was going to be a ‘game-changer’? It seemed a bit unlikely, even after we were told that the early screenings were met by standing ovations. My reaction to that was that the early screenings were no doubt seen almost exclusively by Palin fanatics, whose standing ovations were pretty much to be expected.
To be anything approaching a game- (or mind-) changer, the movie would need to be seen by large numbers of people who either don’t like Palin (a large group, the polls tell us) or don’t care about her one way or the other (there are a few such). Which leads to the question: “Why would such people pay to see a documentary about her?”
At this point, I hear you asking, “So how’s it been doing, Bob?” The answer is that it ain’t no game-changer – it is, in fact, a flop. It may not be at the level of Heaven’s Gate, Ishtar, or Mars Needs Moms, but only because those movies had expectations, while nobody beyond the Palin crowd ever took this thing seriously in the first place.
The movie has now been out two weeks, and here are its box office results:
The movie had a very limited opening, in only ten theaters in what were presumed to be Palin-friendly locales like Orange County and Phoenix. The first week’s numbers were so-so, with maybe ten thousand people seeing it (assuming a ticket price of seven or eight bucks). Not bad, you might have said, if they can roll it out broadly and keep up that rate.
So the second week they roll it out to, er, four more theaters. Well, not a big roll-out. But how were the numbers? Don’t look, Palindrones, it’s too painful. $2163 per theater means that about 275-300 people paid to see the film at each theater. Assuming three screenings per day, that means about thirteen people per screening. Presumably not the sort of turnout that will convince more theater owners to book it, nor those who have done so to keep it going. Which may explain why the producers are talking about pay-per-view.
About thirteen to fifteen thousand people have seen it thus far, most of them presumably committed Palindrones. Not much of a game-changer.
A Few Words about Name ID
One of our regular commenters, Matt/MWS, has made the point several times that much of Mitt Romney’s lead, and Sarah Palin’s residual support (especially her bounce after Mike Huckabee’s withdrawal), can be attributed to name ID – the logic being that relatively few people are deeply involved in following the 2012 campaign thus far, and that they are therefore familiar with only a few candidates’ names, and will pick from one of those names when queried by a pollster.
Plausible, though unproveable. I came across an item in the most recent Pew Research poll, though, that offers some support for the idea.
Looking at the top six candidates (those who polled more than 5%) we see an interesting split. Three of them (Romney, Palin, and Paul) played significant roles in the 2008 election cycle and are therefore well-known to the public. Each of those three poll better among the voters who say they are paying less attention, or none at all, to the campaign than among those who are paying a lot of attention, with the difference being substantial for Romney (he does half-again better among less-engaged voters), but smaller for Palin and Paul. Meanwhile, the three less-familiar names (Perry, Bachmann, Cain) all do better among the more-engaged voters, with Cain doubling his support and Perry tripling his.
Among those who identify with the Tea Party, the differences are even more, er, extreme for all the candidates except Bachmann. Perry finishes sixth among the less-engaged, but first (by a lot) among more-engaged. Romney, meanwhile, leads the less-engaged, but drops to fourth among those paying a lot of attention.
So what does this mean for the coming primaries, especially for Romney? It may mean little, because those less-engaged voters who choose him now obviously are at least somewhat positively disposed toward him, know him to some degree from ’08, and may very well stick with him as they become more involved in following things.
On the other hand, ‘more-engaged’ is often a proxy for ‘more likely to vote’ – which could be a danger signal for Romney if he can’t, as the campaign moves along, convert more of the engaged voters to his side.
The Really Miscellaneous Stuff
Visualizing the US Debt – Mind-boggling images.
Things that make you go, “Hmmmm …” – When Swift Boat Veterans for Truth attacked John Kerry’s service record in 2004, one of the people who defended him (and introduced him at the convention) was another Swift Boat veteran, Wade Sanders, a Silver Star winner. Sanders is now in jail on child pornography charges, and his Silver Star has been revoked (though not for that); the Navy says:
“Had the subsequently determined facts and evidence surrounding both the incident for which the award was made and the processing of the award itself been known to the Secretary of the Navy in 1992, those facts would have prevented the award of the Silver Star.”
So the guy who vouched for Kerry’s service record lied about his own? Hmmmm ,,,
Impeach Her! – Democrats in South Carolina are outraged because Nikki Haley once checked ‘White’ as her race on a form.
Please add your comments and/or your own miscellany.
July 31st, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Uh-oh Bob, you aren’t allowed to question the greatness of the One.
More seriously, all the other movies out right now, especially the Harry Potter finale, and the fact that everyone knew the movie’s agenda (to make Palin look good) are probably the reasons this has flopped. Given all that, it’s not surprising that those who didn’t already have a positive view of Palin wouldn’t be inclined to see a film about her.
July 31st, 2011 at 2:37 pm
I got one.
After all the Dem-inspired, MSM-nurtured hatin’ on the Tea Partiers of late, there was this little educational comparison between radicals and their treatment.
From the prelude and chorus:
Since most journos nowadays come through the left-wing-radical-besotted halls of academe, they are convinced that skepticism toward government power and advocacy for its limitation are the main symptoms of mental illness.
July 31st, 2011 at 2:49 pm
Great stuff, Bob..
Btw, going to see the Salt Lake City Bees tonight. Afterwards, we (my wife annd I) are taking the Bee’s catcher out to dinner. His parents are friend of ours from Huntington Beach.
July 31st, 2011 at 2:53 pm
Hey, what happened to people of conviction? Aren’t the Tea Partiers “firebrands”? Isn’t there little doubt where their hearts lie?
Rather than praise Tea Partiers as passionate advocates for their beliefs, many in the press have taken to marginalizing them with mean-spirited attacks on their sanity.
Exactly.
July 31st, 2011 at 3:22 pm
Looks like we have a deal:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/07/negotiating-all-but-done-for-27-trillion-deficit-reduction-deal-now-comes-the-selling.html
July 31st, 2011 at 3:24 pm
If Palin supporters really want people to see the movie, they would put it online for free. I don’t think they are willing to give up that kind of loss by giving it away just yet though (money being more important than their support for Palin, of course).
July 31st, 2011 at 3:27 pm
On the name recognition stuff, I think it is true that candidates with higher name recognition do better in the early polls. However, when you look at history, they also ALWAYS do better in the final polls too. I don’t know why supporters of fringe candidates like Pawlenty would take comfort in the fact that their guy doesn’t have name recognition. No one has ever come from where Pawlenty is right now to win the Republican nomination (at least not in the last 70 years).
July 31st, 2011 at 3:38 pm
Movies generally do decline in the second week and the number of new theaters it is booked in are not big enough to make up for the decline. Plus movie theaters are booked in months in advance and this was done only around 4-5 weeks ago. Plus the fact that it is not being distributed by a major like some documentaries have been and there is no marketing going on. The fact is that his was intended as pay-per-view and dvd originally. The theatrical run is pretty much gravy. The pay per view release will be backed by a million dollar advertising budget. It can also be used by a potential campaign through house parties and mailers to potential supporters. It will be a game changer.
Also the trouble with polling Palin is that a lot of people do not think that she is running and the more engaged may be more inclined to believe that. Until you get a full field, all these numbers have a grain of salt to them.
July 31st, 2011 at 3:39 pm
MarqueG: Good item. Certainly it’s true that the MSM likes to describe all conservatives as ‘right-wing wackos’ (sometimes a fitting description), while labeling left-wing wackos as ‘passionate about their cause.’
That said, I’m not sure it’s fair to use the articles written about Wellstone after his death as a comparison. Nobody’s going to slam somebody right after he dies.
July 31st, 2011 at 3:48 pm
TEX would.
July 31st, 2011 at 3:52 pm
“The Undefeated” is a game changer and it is really short sighted to use box office receipts as a barometer of it’s success.
That’s the wrong metric and you have misunderstood what was meant by the term ‘game changer’…just as everything re: Palin is misunderstood or misstated.
I am sure you are hopeful (along with the liberal media who started lying about it on day one) that enough ‘bad’ press about the movie can reduce it’s eventual viewership.
The facts are in and they are conclusive, it IS a game changer, as people who before hand were not Palin supporters come away from viewing it with a renewed appreciation and respect for her. It’s purpose is to get the narrative back to reality and anyone who watches it realizes they have been fed a lie about her.
Everyone in America will have an opportunity to see this movie and unknown to you and the media, it is being shown at FREE (yes jax) showings throughout Iowa and other states with excellent results.
People are holding private screenings in their homes and minds are being changed. (WHAT? you say…it’s not out on DVD yet? – not for public purchase, no -but O4P has copies and we are showing it everywhere and anytime we can)
This is part of the unconventional campaign; everyone here has agreed with me she needs to change the image people have of her if she hopes to be successful. This goes a long long way in recalibrating peoples perceptions.
While Palin evokes a kind of unnatural hatred or snark even among some Republicans, this is for the most part a media generated emotional reaction that is kind of part of pop culture right now. Years of ridicule and misinformation about her have taken a toll.
Governor Palin is the true embodiment of the Tea Party values which she is a passionate advocate for, so of course the attacks and ridicule will continue. But people come away from viewing the Undefeated” angry that they have been so lied to and misled.
At no time have I ever said a two hour political documentary released in the middle of summer would be a box office hit…I honestly never considered it’s financial prospects, they are irrelevant to the message of the movie.
It is a game changer in that it gets the truth about one of America’s true heroes for the first time.
So assuage your fears by focusing on meaningless box office numbers.
You guys are not even going to see this coming, and I have been shouting the wake up call here for months.
heh heh
July 31st, 2011 at 3:53 pm
Aaaaaaah,good old Bob is so happy,dancing in the streets,because
“The Undefeated” documentary didn’t defeat Harry Potter at the Box Office.
It must be such a joy,ah Bob?
July 31st, 2011 at 3:54 pm
It did not defeat harry potter. Heck it did not even defeat the trailers for other shows!
July 31st, 2011 at 4:06 pm
Actually rightgal, it’s opening weekend per screen numbers were second only to Harry Potter, but it only opened in ten theaters.
Rather than focus on how much money is being made by the movie, which had no advertising budget and was not even promoted in the communities it was showing in other than on facebook and Twitter, you guys should consider the movies content.
There’s your trouble.
heh heh
July 31st, 2011 at 4:22 pm
Posts designed to malign a candidate are far less interesting than the ones that tell us who the candidates are and why the author like them.
This article is investigative and thoughtful, but I’d rather hear about who you like and why.
July 31st, 2011 at 4:34 pm
This weekend’s numbers for The Undefeated are in (in estimate form). It’s down to four theaters, and it pulled in $5,200. So even on the weekend it’s getting only about 20 per screen.
July 31st, 2011 at 4:36 pm
SixMom (15): I respectfully disagree. I think “Why I support X” and “Why I don’t support Y” can be equally informative or worthless, depending on how they’re done.
Actually, though, these miscellany posts are not intended to be extremely serious — they’re mostly made up of odds and ends I come across. As for whom I support: When I make up my mind, I’ll let you know.
July 31st, 2011 at 4:46 pm
Bob,
I find it interesting that someone who doesn’t take Palin seriously would spend so much time talking about her.
I look forward to watching The Undefeated on PPV. If she runs, I plan to purchase several copies to loan out…and possibly donate to retirement homes. Others will do the same.
Perhaps you’ll watch it too, so we can get your objective opinion on the film.
July 31st, 2011 at 4:48 pm
SixMom, you haven’t been around long enough to know that Bob is really wild about Willard.
July 31st, 2011 at 4:50 pm
I liked Ishtar. Just sayin.
July 31st, 2011 at 4:56 pm
About thirteen to fifteen thousand people have seen it thus far …
The movie roll-out is barely out of the gate. What’s important right now is not the numbers, but who’s seeing it. Someone who attended the premiere in Pella, Iowa said that those in attendance consisted of a who’s who of conservative activists in Iowa. The movie was also shown to a crowd of about 1,000 an the Right-On-Line conference recently in Minneapolis and was shown this weekend at a conservative women’s conference in St. Louis. It will also be shown at the RedState conference in mid-August.
July 31st, 2011 at 4:59 pm
#21 – Then it becomes available on PPV starting September 1st (accessible to 75 Million homes) and then will be sold in Wal-Mart in DVD form.
At some point, I suspect Palin will purchase the rights to the movie and have it chopped-up into smaller clips so it can be made available on YouTube.
July 31st, 2011 at 5:00 pm
16. Way to totally miss the point and demonstrate your cluelessness.
How do you get front page privileges being so obtuse?
Tell me this smart guy, how many people saw it for free in Iowa this weekend?
heh heh
Are you a reflection of the level of political acuity all his supporters have?
…maybe that explains why they support him.
July 31st, 2011 at 5:02 pm
“I find it interesting that someone who doesn’t take Palin seriously would spend so much time talking about her.”
RWN: I don’t think I’ve ever said that I don’t take her seriously. I don’t think she’s at all likely to win the nomination, but if she enters the race she’ll have an impact because of her passionate supporters. To that extent, she must be taken seriously by anyone watching the race.
This post, though, is not at all about Palin. It is about her more delusional followers. Them I don’t take seriously, except as a seriously-great source of amusement — and doing this post was amusing.
July 31st, 2011 at 5:06 pm
24. It’s too bad you suffer from a lack of reading comprehension skills, because you are starting to look foolish….dare I say ‘delusional?’
Box office is NOT the metric to judge this. To do so is moronic…yet you persist and think the joke is somehow on us.
Okay Bob.
July 31st, 2011 at 5:25 pm
From the LA Times…
…..Most readable: Sarah Palin, “Going Rogue.”
Least readable: Mitt Romney, “No Apology.”
Most difficult political tightrope act: Romney, “No Apology.”
Most intriguing new author: Rick Perry, “Fed Up.”
Most appealing life story: Tim Pawlenty, “Courage to Stand.”
Most terrifying jeremiad: Newt Gingrich, “To Save America.”……
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-mcmanus-republican-candidates-b20110731,0,7851474.column?page=2
July 31st, 2011 at 5:36 pm
Bob-the wise old man or something
“I don’t think she’s at all likely to win the nomination,”
=========================================================
And who is going to stop her?
“mr #47,#50,mr Obamnycare,mr not a single word about debt ceiling battle,
mr $980 millions in taxes-”fees”,mr LBOs and flip-flopping artist,……?
Or maybe 2 terms congresswoman with no record and zero accomplishments
except mini me,me,me…. and “I found Jesus”,”my husband told me to do
this and that”, nut job whacko?
Or maybe little midget from Indiana will get permission from his wife to run due to unbearable,intense demand for him to jump in the race?
Who is going to stop Sarah Palin?
July 31st, 2011 at 5:40 pm
27
““mr #47,#50″,mr Obamnycare,mr not a single word about debt ceiling battle”
— Not a single word? Did you hear his endorsement of Cut, Cap, and Balance at the NH debate? Did you hear him praising Boehner for holding firm against tax increases?
July 31st, 2011 at 5:40 pm
#17 Bob…yes you’re right. It’s all in the tone. For or against does not matter as much as the content and intent. Thanks for your input.
July 31st, 2011 at 8:00 pm
This post, though, is not at all about Palin. It is about her more delusional followers. Them I don’t take seriously, except as a seriously-great source of amusement — and doing this post was amusing.
====================================
Quite frankly you are the delusional one. The value of it is after it goes through its limited release, pay per view and dvd. Whatever it does until then is gravy. The fact is that people who have seen it have seen that there is more to Palin than the media has let on. Her mission will be to expose more people to it. That could include putting portions on youtube as was her original intention. It could include house parties or even making the dvd available to voters. If you had been around in Columbus’ time, you would have been one of those telling Chris that he would fall off if he tried to sail around the world.
July 31st, 2011 at 8:15 pm
FRankie, if it tanked at the box office, why do you think folks will buy the DVD and downloand it from their PPV? They won’t. Now, you and the other c4p’s are certainly welcome to buy 100 copies each and give them out as ‘gifts’ but then they risk not ever being asked to the family BBQ again, or the neighborhood pot luck!
July 31st, 2011 at 11:59 pm
FRankie, if it tanked at the box office, why do you think folks will buy the DVD and downloand it from their PPV?
==================================================
It didn’t tank at the box office. This is a documentary just in case your tiny little brain can’t comprehend that. Again the key is that she will be able to use it if she runs. Rightgal, you have proven your idiocy once again.
August 1st, 2011 at 7:27 am
I am going to be honest here…they never should have released this film in the theaters…especially with the limited distribution through AMC. This film should have gone through the political circuit…get the great reviews it was getting and then go directly to on demand and DVD…perhaps make a deal with BIO channel or TLC and show it on TV. The reason why…the risk wasn’t worth the reward. Even if it were hugely successful in the theaters…it would only be successful in that Bannon got his money back(which he probably already did when he brokered the deal with AMC) Anything other than a blockbuster would lend itself to huge negative spin…and it has.
I am a Palin supporter, I have argued in favor of Palin for the past 3 years but this was just a silly miscalculation. It wasn’t Palin’s fault since she doesn’t have a, monetary, stake in the film but she will reap the negative press for other people’s poor decisions.
BUT
As others have said…there is a 2nd and 3rd Act to the story of The Undefeated. It might do a lot better on VOD and the small DVD printing could prove to be a huge success the first weekend it’s released in Wal-Mart stores. Also, supposedly Bannon is preparing something for December 2012…maybe it will be on TLC? Who knows?
August 1st, 2011 at 7:28 am
BTW, Rightgal is Ellie…I thought she was banned from this site for spreading lies about the Palin family.
August 1st, 2011 at 8:32 am
Who would expect the LA Times – part of the Lame Stream Media and all in on backing Obama’s re-election, to praise the book wriiten by the Messiah’s toughest and most likely opponent?
August 1st, 2011 at 8:43 am
33 – was supposed to say December 2011…