Getting back on track with our normal Thursday state of the race updates… movement is from the last update Monday morning:
| Name | Value | Change |
| Perry | 32.1 | -0.6 |
| Romney | 28.0 | -1.9 |
| Bachmann | 8.1 | -2.0 |
| Huntsman | 7.7 | +0.9 |
| Palin | 7.0 | +1.7 |
| Pawlenty | 5.9 | -0.1 |
| Paul | 1.9 | -0.1 |
| Gingrich | 0.7 | -1.3 |
| Cain | 0.5 | -0.2 |
| Johnson | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| Santorum | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| McCotter | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Roemer | 0.1 | E |
Only candidates who have announced an official candidacy or who have greater than a 3% chance at the nomination are included.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:37 pm
easy money
July 28th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
What are the odds that a possible candidate quits halfway through her first debate?
July 28th, 2011 at 4:03 pm
This proves that Perry has moneyed interests supporting him.
Perry will do well in the South of course, but he has little appeal to the rest of us.
The nominee will be either Perry or Romney. I am okay with that, although, I’d rather have an outsider like Romney, because he has worked in the real world, unlike the career politician, Rick Perry, who understands politics and little else.
Romney would do better in the General, I don’t know why we would risk another Texan against Obama, it seems like such a gift to Obama to run handicapped that way. But I think either of them would win in the end, Romney with a clear mandate and Perry would squeak by.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:04 pm
Perry is getting too much credit. He is not even in the race yet.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:06 pm
2, pretty good if they make some lamestream media type of comment.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
petunia Says:
The nominee will be either Perry or Romney.
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there is something about Perry I don’t like, I just can’t put my finger on it. I would rather see it ZPaw against Romney. I just don’t see the appeal of Perry.
As an investment, short Perry big time.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:09 pm
Mitt should still be fav (just). Jeb Bush can virtually give him Florida and therefore the nomination with a Crist like late endorsement.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:12 pm
# Heath Says:
July 28th, 2011 at 4:09 pm
Mitt should still be fav (just). Jeb Bush can virtually give him Florida and therefore the nomination with a Crist like late endorsement.
========================================================
That’s possible since the bushes don’t like Perry at all.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:14 pm
6 — Maybe it’s because Perry holds or raises up his finger, hand or fist in the air with every syllable that he utters. Perry is only interesting to evangelical bigots who can’t stomach a Romney nomination and who could care less about Perry’s record. These are people looking for a Pastor-in-Chief not a President.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:31 pm
Remember when Daniels ahead of Romney once? And Trump? And Christy? And, and, and?
Anyone else see a {{manufactured}} pattern here?
July 28th, 2011 at 4:33 pm
It just seems so bizarre to me that people are ready to jump on the Perry bandwagon after we just finished 8 years of George W Bush.
He is like GW in many ways:
* Perry talks like GW. Check out any video, he has the same thick, Texan accent and trips over his words quite often like GW.
* Perry, like GW, is/was the Governor of TX. I know, I know. Texas is a BIG state, but Rick Perry is from the same culture that the Bush’s knew – agricultural Texas. GW loved his ranch and playing Cowboy. Rick Perry graduated with an agricultural degree and also loves the ranching life.
* Perry’s policies are similar to GW. They’re both soft on immigration, and they both created giant deficits with big spending polices.
* Perry and GW play Cowboy politics. In other words, “shoot first, ask questions later”. Bush did it in two wars, and Perry did it with the Gardasil scandal, and the execution of an innocent man. They would rather ask for forgiveness than ask for permission.
* Perry and GW are both fervent Evangelicals.
I’m sorry, but Rick Perry and GWB are extremely similar in many ways. To the informed Texan, they may seem a worlds worth of difference, but to the greater world at large, Rick Perry is George Bush III.
Are we tired of Cowboy Presidents yet?
July 28th, 2011 at 4:39 pm
I’d love to see a list of Perry’s great accomplishments. Most fans of each candidate can make up a decent list.
I honestly can only think of ONE accomplishment for Perry: “Held steady job growth in Texas during the Obama recession”. I can’t think of anything else. Anyone want to enlighten me?
To the average Texan, life is getting up early, working at McDonalds because you don’t know how to read, having asthma from the terrible pollution, but not having any insurance to see a Doctor.
Does that sound like a good alternative for the Obama Recession? If so, vote for Rick Perry.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
30 Reasons To Not Vote For Rick Perry
#1 Rick Perry is a “big government” politician. When Rick Perry became the governor of Texas in 2000, the total spending by the Texas state government was approximately $49 billion. Ten years later it was approximately $90 billion. That is not exactly reducing the size of government.
#2 The debt of the state of Texas is out of control. According to usdebtclock.org, the debt to GDP ratio in Texas is 22.9% and the debt per citizen is $10,645. In California (a total financial basket case), the debt to GDP ratio is just 18.7% and the debt per citizen is only $9932. If Rick Perry runs for president these are numbers he will want to keep well hidden.
#3 The total debt of the Texas government has more than doubled since Rick Perry became governor. So what would the U.S. national debt look like after four (or eight) years of Rick Perry?
#4 Rick Perry has spearheaded the effort to lease roads in Texas to foreign companies, to turn roads that are already free to drive on into toll roads, and to develop the Trans-Texas Corridor which would be part of the planned NAFTA superhighway system. If you really do deep research on this whole Trans-Texas Corridor nonsense you will see why no American should ever cast a single vote for Rick Perry.
#5 Rick Perry claims that he has a “track record” of not raising taxes. That is a false claim. Rick Perry has repeatedly raised taxes and fees while he has been governor. Today, Texans are faced with significantly higher taxes and fees than they were before Rick Perry was elected.
#6 Even with the oil boom in Texas, 23 states have a lower unemployment rate than Texas does.
#7 In 1984, Perry was elected to the Texas House of Representatives as a Democrat from a district (64) that included his home county of Haskell.
#8 Back in 1988, Rick Perry supported Al Gore for president. In fact, Rick Perry actually served as Al Gore’s campaign chairman in the state of Texas that year.
#9 Between December 2007 and April 2011, weekly wages in the U.S. increased by about 5 percent. In the state of Texas they increased by just 0.6% over that same time period.
#10 Texas now has one of the worst education systems in the nation. The following is from an opinion piece that was actually authored by Barbara Bush earlier this year….
*36th in the nation in high school graduation rates. An estimated 3.8 million Texans do not have a high school diploma.
*49th in verbal SAT scores, 47th in literacy and 46th in average math SAT scores.
*33rd in the nation on teacher salaries.
#11 Rick Perry attended the Bilderberg Group meetings in 2007. Associating himself with that organization should be a red flag for all American voters.
#12 Texas has the highest percentage of workers making minimum wage out of all 50 states.
#13 Rick Perry often gives speeches about illegal immigration, but when you look at the facts, he has been incredibly soft on the issue. If Rick Perry does not plan to secure the border, then he should not be president because illegal immigration is absolutely devastating many areas of the southwest United States.
#14 In 2007, 221,000 residents of Texas were making minimum wage or less. By 2010, that number had risen to 550,000.
#15 Rick Perry actually issued an executive order in 2007 that would have forced almost every single girl in the state of Texas to receive the Gardasil vaccine before entering the sixth grade. Perry would have put parents in a position where they would have had to fill out an application and beg the government not to inject their child with a highly controversial vaccine. Since then, very serious safety issues regarding this vaccine have come to light. Fortunately, lawmakers in Texas blocked what Perry was trying to do. According to Wikipedia, many were troubled when “apparent financial connections between Merck and Perry were reported by news outlets, such as a $6,000 campaign contribution and Merck’s hiring of former Perry Chief of Staff Mike Toomey to handle its Texas lobbying work.”
#16 In 2008, Rick Perry stood beside Child Protective Services in Constitutional violation during the invasion and mass kidnapping of 464 FLDS children from their community in Eldorado, Texas. Perry spokeswoman Krista Piferrer said the governor retained full confidence in the agency, noting that “The governor is very proud of the work being done by CPS…CPS has handled a very complex situation both professionally and compassionately.” The 3rd Court of Appeals in Austin ruled that Texas child welfare authorities acted improperly and the children were returned to their parents. The governor ended up squandering 12.4 million of public money on the operation.
#17 Perry supported and still supports Open Borders with Mexico
#18 In 2001 Rick Perry signed the Dream Act into law allowing illegal immigrants in-state tuition. This is the blueprint for Obama’s own similar Federal Dream Act.
#19 In 2004, Perry allowed the execution of an innocent man, Cameron Willingham, and then impeded an investigation into the whole matter, including firing and replacing three members of the Texas Forensic Science Commission.
#20 Perry has called the 16th and 17th Amendments to the Constitution ” mistaken “. The 16th Amendment is the income tax amendment accounting for 45 % of all tax receipts. The 17th Amendment allows for direct election of U.S Senators, taking that right away from government.
#21 Texas is the leading polluter among states in the union, leading the nation on carbon dioxide emissions, but when the state was sued by the EPA for not meeting clean air standards, Perry sued the federal government. He also is a global warming critic who called the 2010 BP oil spill an ” act of God .”
#22 One in four children in Texas live below the poverty line. Perry cut $ 10 billion out of child support services even though Texas has a $ 8.2 Billion rainy day fund.
#23 Perry said that Texas might have to secede from the Union.
#24 Perry has called himself a “Prophet” and has said that he has been literally “called by God” to run for President. Matthew 7:15: “Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.”
#25 Rick Perry has had a questionable past when it comes to Social Issues. Recently in 2008, he endorsed Rudy Giuliani for President, causing Mike Huckabee to respond with the following in an email on 7-21-11: “For all his new found commitment to hyper-conservatism, he’ll get to explain why he supported pro-abortion, pro-same sex marriage Rudy Guiliani last time.”
#26 Rick Perry recently stated that he supported New York’s Gay Marriage law by stating, “That’s New York, and that’s their business, and that’s fine with me”.
#27 Less than a week later on 7-28-11, Perry flip-flopped his support for New York’s Gay Marriage law and the 10th Amendment by stating, “Indeed, to not pass the Federal Marriage Amendment would impinge on Texas’ and other states’ right not to have marriage forced upon them by these activist judges and these special interest groups.” Who is the real Rick Perry?
#28 Perry also stated that Abortion is a states issue, but in this case didn’t flip-flop on it. “You can’t believe in the 10th Amendment for a few issues and then [for] something that doesn’t suit you say, ‘We’d rather not have states decide that.’”
#28 Rick Perry took office in 2000 with 4.4% unemployment and ballooned it a whopping 4% to 8.2%.
#29 Texas manufacturing payroll is 46 out of 50 in the U.S and the San Antonio Metro is 50 / 50 in big cities. Even though Texas has had better job numbers than the national average during the Obama Recession, jobs created there account for the lowest wages in the nation.
#30 Texas has the nation’s worst uninsured health rate. More than 25 % of Texans lack health care coverage when the national average is 15 %. There are more uninsured residents in Texas than there are people in 33 states with an extraordinarily high level of uninsured children. Yet, Perry has been critical of Massachusetts health care program, even though Massachusetts is number one in the nation with the lowest uninsured healthcare rate around 2%.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:52 pm
The second tier is as tightly bunched as the top tier. And investors are not showing much enthusiasm/confidence in TPAW.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:53 pm
CF – Brilliant analysis (rolling my eyes). This seems like a good place to repeat what I posted in another thread:
It’s pointless to debate some of these guys. It seems like if Romney isn’t the nominee that many around here will either pout and stay home or vote for Obama. I thought this was a Republican site to support Republican candidates. Apparently, I was wrong. I am a strong Perry supporter, but I will gladly support and vote for Mitt or any other GOP nominee. Why do we on our side insist on tearing down our own just b/c we like another candidate better?
July 28th, 2011 at 4:54 pm
God CF is an asshole.
What are Mitt’s great accomplishments as governor? If you want to blame Perry for pollution levels in Texas then it’s fair game to blame Mitt for being 47th in job creation.
On the other thread CF accused evangelicals of glomming onto Perry like leeches. Nevermind the fact that Mormons bloc vote for Mitt at a rate of 100 percent.
I’ll take a Texas swagger any day over a bunch of Mormon robots who want to foist this pampered little prick hellbent on avenging his father’s loss in a presidential primary decades ago. The only reason CF and most of the other Mormon robots on this site are propping up this guy (deviations from conservative orthodoxy notwithstanding) is because he went to BYU and is a Mormon Bishop. That’s it. That’s all. If Huckabee was pro-choice in the past and Romney wasn’t then the Rombots would call him a great Satan. If any other candidate flip flopped on so many issues and Romney didn’t then they wouldn’t be bending over backwards to make excuses for him.
I knew nothing about Mormons and nothing about the LDS religion until I frequented this site. What I found is people with a cult-like mentality that will stop at nothing to prop up their man. Its frankly a bit scary. And I hope its not representative of the religion as a whole – because if it is then you deserve every bit of persecution that you so often complain about.
I;m not an evangelical and I’m not religious. But I’ll tell you that after dealing with the Mormon Rombots on this site I’d laugh if the GOP picks Perry or Bachmann – tells you all to go to hell. It’s worth writing off Utah just to teach you all a lesson.
There it is. Ban me. I don’t give a shit anymore.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:55 pm
16
Newby -
So what is it exactly that you like about Rick Perry? Can you also give me a list of accomplishments that qualify him to fix our current debt and jobs situation in America?
Just curious.
July 28th, 2011 at 5:14 pm
Boehner forced to delay vote – he needs under 10 votes for passage. Glad the markets were closed.
July 28th, 2011 at 5:14 pm
….It’s over for Perry unless he starts making appearances… So far there is just nothing there, there….
I would like to see him in the next debate, but he needs the spine to announce first…..I’d like to see if he gets that crazy look in his eyes while debating Well anyway, so far my impression of him is that he is Bush 44.
July 28th, 2011 at 5:16 pm
Adam X
I’m a Methodist and I support Romney. You have a big problem with that ?
CraigS
July 28th, 2011 at 5:27 pm
11 – 13: Spamvalanche! Do you intend to post that on every other thread?
And when do you inform us about the great deals on Rolexes and Ugg boots?
July 28th, 2011 at 5:31 pm
Am I the only one who finds this intrade stuff to be stupid and worthless?
July 28th, 2011 at 5:35 pm
Adam X-
Hellbent on avenging his father’s loss? Ha ha ha. You see life like a comic book.
As CraigS has indicated, Romney’s support goes far beyond religion. How did Mitt ever win in Massachusetts? All those Mormons?
Not sure where you get your information. Perry or Bachmann would be idiots to throw Mormons under the bus. The GOP needs as many people as it can get.
You need to think about Reagan’s “big tent” and not engage in such divisive language.
July 28th, 2011 at 5:39 pm
One of the fun facts of Race42012 that I learned years ago is that your grassroots conservative candidate better not catch, pass at any time, or heaven’s forbid DEFEAT the one the Rombots adore…
Or there will be hell to pay. I guess Mitt and his hardcore bots have never ever lost an election.
Oh, wait.
July 28th, 2011 at 5:47 pm
Jamison,
The best parts of intrade or scientific polling is checking out the yearly, monthly, and weekly trends.
But yes, like all forms of gambling you will lose in the end. Inside traders and “the fix” distort reality even more on the internet though.
Worthless? Kind of but not really. As for internet polling? Totally worthless.
July 28th, 2011 at 5:49 pm
CF..
Wow, you sure know how to push AdamX’s buttons…good job! He should be banned for that last rant.
July 28th, 2011 at 5:53 pm
I am far from being a Mormon, and I am a tea partier, too. I am warming up to the notion of Mitt as the nominee because I think only he can win the general election, and we could do much worse than Romney. I am not going to push for a tea-party candidate that cannot win the general election. I find Perry to be a corrupt politician. No politician is perfect; I know that. However, I do think Romney is a person of integrity and high character, and I can’t say the same for Perry.
July 28th, 2011 at 5:58 pm
Adam X, that was a little uncalled for, if you ask me. Sure, Mormons support Romney to a high degree. I am pretty sure that members of Huckabee’s religion supported him to a similar degree.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:05 pm
If they did, Huck would have been our nominee.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:10 pm
“To the average Texan, life is getting up early, working at McDonalds because you don’t know how to read, having asthma from the terrible pollution, but not having any insurance to see a Doctor.”
CF,
Go walk into any Texas dance hall, store, or bank and tell them that.
And I won’t forget to put roses on your grave.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:10 pm
Does anybody else think if Perry is the nominee, the Obama ads would sound like this:
“Rick Perry, George W. Bush’s Lieutenant Governor, thinks _______________________ Rick Perry, he’s just like Bush. We can’t afford another four years of Bush’s failed policies.
I’m trying not to let my Rombot glasses cloud my vision but I see Perry as all too easy to tie to Bush in a general election match up.
The DNC successfully labeled poor little Johnny Mac as a potential “Third Bush Term” and if they managed that, imagine what they would do to a guy who actually was Bush’s second-in-command.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:12 pm
Adam X
I find it interestig that you have no problem with posters who attack Romney, no matter how rediculous their attacks, but if there are Romney supporters who act the same way, suddenly it’s the Mormons and their religion that are bad despite the fact you know full well that Romney has more non-Mormon than Mormon supporters. (I realize you said you “hope it’s not reflective of the entire religion.)
But you have been posting stuff like this since the beginning.
Your posts often stretch beyond fair and balanced as well as and come up short against a fact check.
Should we all start bad mouthing your family? Your nationallity? Your skin color?
Did you ever think that just as you cannot stand Romney, there may be other people in America who can’t stand some other candidate?
And just as you are very enthusiastic about a certain candidate, there may be other people in America who are just as enthusiastic about a candidate you don’t like?
If we switched the names of the candidate you support with the one you don’t, you too could pass yourself off as a cultist, lousy Mormon….
July 28th, 2011 at 6:14 pm
As for what I think of Perry: Can we please get some more love for Pawlenty?…
July 28th, 2011 at 6:31 pm
Who monitors this site? Adam X may throw out all the ridiculous and untrue comments he wants, but at least control his foul mouth. It degrades and cheapens this site… on the other hand perhaps it just reveals him for what he is.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:33 pm
Adam X,
I support Romney and I am a Baptist from the South. I think you are painting his supporters with way too broad of a brush.
In 2008, virtually all African Americans supported Barack Obama but they weren’t the only that group that supported him. Using your logic all Obama supporters are African Americans.
Likewise, just because virtually all Mormons support Romney doesn’t mean that every Romney supporter is a Mormon. Plenty of us aren’t. In fact, as someone has pointed out, Romney was elected Governor of Massachusetts which has a very small Mormon population so he must’ve won based on his credentials rather than identity politics.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:34 pm
Nothing wrong with a guy getting a bit frustrated. It’s politics–the good, the bad, and the ugly.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:40 pm
Anyway, aren’t Palin supporters just as passionate in their support of her, perhaps even more than Rombots are of Mitt? I’d be interested in a third party’s perspective on that–a neutral observer.
Curious that there are just as many anti-Romney comments as there are pro-Romney comments. Ooh, conspiracy.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:44 pm
I’d figure the average Palindrone is more passionate by far than the average Romneyite. Considering the amount of self-organization reported in Palinville, they’ve got quite a lot of blood, sweat, and tears invested so far.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:44 pm
I could not care less about Perry at this point. He’s not in the race, he has an appearance scheduled on the same day as Ames, and I haven’t seen him on the top of any Iowa or New Hampshire polls.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:49 pm
CF – 17 – I will respond to your question later tonight when I have time…
July 28th, 2011 at 6:55 pm
Adam, Craig, you guts need to learn a thing or two.
As a Mormon I did NOT support Hatch when he ran, and quite frankly would love to see him replaced in the Senate. I also can’t stand Reid. To say that we are a bunch of robots means that you haven’t talked to any of us. I support Romney because I hope and expect him to tackle our ever expanding federal government and spending problem. I expect his private sector experience to give him the skill set to do this. I want him to see government as a business and as he said in the last debate “I want to determine what the federal government must do and start slicing off the rest ” (paraphrased).
I talk to many Mormons that do not support him. In my discussions about his qualities, his religion does not come up. It is irrelevant.
I bet us Romney supporters would be the easiest group to accept a loss and move on to the next best candidate at the appropriate time. The thing is that that time has not arrived, and as we are all supporting various candidates, we are pitching our guy. That does not make us mind numbed robots just because we don’t agree with you. We Romney supporters (most of us) give reasoned and unemotional arguments for our guy, unlike people like TEX or that guy that once had “beat Mitt then Obama” in his tag line. The most emotionally invested people are the supporters of Palin and Paul. When have you seen a Romney supporter threaten to go third party if “my guy” doesn’t get the nomination?
Stop calling fellow conservatives assholes. It just shows who really is the orifice.
July 28th, 2011 at 7:13 pm
My two cents on Intrade. I thought I would give Intrade a go since I’ve heard so much talk about it since 2007. I have a degree in Business Mgt. and Finance and can crunch a few numbers and understand them.
First of all, Intrade is managed from Ireland, which doesn’t mean much except they stopped taking credit cards in 2010. It takes a minimum of 2 weeks for your money to clear and for you to be able to buy a prediction. Anytime you want to add money, same story. The reactions we are seeing are delayed R based on foreign perceptions.
Because of the delay and the ridiculous amount of effort it takes to use Intrade, I canceled my account the same day I opened it a couple of days ago. Which they graciously did without any hassle.
I noticed that there were less than 250 shares ATTEMPTING to trade on Romney’s page on that day divided among about a dozen participants. Hardly any transactions actually taking place. That is a very small sample.
Regardless of how busy or accurate Intrade was in the past, it relevancy is notably reduced and I wouldn’t count it as a sure fire indicator of anything this time around. Too few Americans on it, too long to clear funds and sentiment may not be too current.
July 28th, 2011 at 7:14 pm
R should be OR
July 29th, 2011 at 4:20 am
I’m on record (since May) as saying that the race is between Perry & Romney.
But I have to agree with Thunder and ors, there is just something about Perry which is particulary unlikeable?! I hope Mitt smashes the “hit out of him!!
July 29th, 2011 at 7:43 am
In trade is fun, but not that important. Romney is ahead again now, by the way. What changed over night to give him a better shot?
July 29th, 2011 at 8:13 am
Perry said some stupid things and has a very sore back.