Today, Gallup released some really interesting crosstabs to their national primary poll they put out yesterday (click here for a reminder of those numbers.). They broke the country down into four regions and revealed the top five candidates in each region. The results show a Romney candidacy which is strongest in the west and weakest in the south, and a Perry candidacy that relies a lot on southern-based strength:
EAST
- Romney – 19%
- Giuliani – 18%
- Palin – 13%
- Perry – 13%
- Bachmann – 12%
MIDWEST
- Romney – 17%
- Bachmann – 11%
- Palin – 10%
- Perry – 10%
- Giuliani – 9%
SOUTH
- Perry – 22%
- Palin – 13%
- Romney – 12%
- Bachmann – 10%
- Paul – 9%
WEST
- Romney – 24%
- Bachmann – 12%
- Giuliani – 11%
- Palin – 11%
- Paul – 10%
As you can see, Romney is strongest in the West, but has support spread throughout the Midwest and East as well, coming in first place in all three regions. The South is obviously his biggest area of weakness.
Conversely, Rick Perry collects a majority of his national support from the South, putting in underwhelming totals from the other three regions.
So we have a white knight candidate whose strength mirrors the weakness of the current frontrunner. And thus, a battle royale is begun. If Perry hopes to win the nomination in a primary system which is not national, however, he’s going to have to find a way to expand his southern support base to include midwestern states like Iowa, northeastern states like New Hampshire and New York, and western states like Nevada and California.
For anyone who’s interest: in the cross tabs for only the announced candidates we see that if Perry, Palin, and Giuliani do not run, Romney has anywhere from a 7-15% lead in every region of the country.
July 28th, 2011 at 2:49 pm
That is telling!
July 28th, 2011 at 2:52 pm
Palin and Perry only dominate in the south. Romney puts in a good show everywhere else and not terrible in the south. Bachmann is truly mixed and Paul does better than Pawlentry EVERYWHERE.
July 28th, 2011 at 2:53 pm
Not really. If Perry wins Iowa then he already has won SC. He doesn’t need NH or NY or CA or NV at all.
The only thing that matters is South Carolina. That’s the decisive state. If Perry wins Iowa then he is sitting pretty. If he does respectably well in Iowa and wins South Carolina then he is the favorite for the nomination.
July 28th, 2011 at 2:56 pm
You mean in Iowa as in the straw poll a couple of weeks away or the caucuses?
July 28th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
The Iowa caucus.
If Perry wins the Iowa caucus then he is odds on favorite for South Carolina.
IA+SC is awfully tough to top. And in that scenarion, NH, NY, CA, etc. aren’t going to matter a whit.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:01 pm
Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:
July 28th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
The Iowa caucus.
If Perry wins the Iowa caucus then he is odds on favorite for South Carolina.
IA+SC is awfully tough to top. And in that scenarion, NH, NY, CA, etc. aren’t going to matter a whit.
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Your delegate count is way off. If Romney takes New Hampshire, Nevada, and Florida, he will trump Iowa and SC.
California, New York, and New Jersey is enough to put Romney in a commanding lead.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
And the Odds of Perry taking Iowa is very low. he has to beat out TPaw who is putting in a major push in Iowa, and Bachmann who has a commanding lead. Romney supporters are still there and will come up for the Caucus. I don’t see Perry winning Iowa at all.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Actually what this shows is this race is pretty tight.
A lot can change once campaigning starts. Front runners stumble, insurgents surge…that’s what makes it fun!
It is way to early to hold a coronation or write off any of the top tier candidates. Let’s see them perform against each other.
May the better man or woman win.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:05 pm
6,
It’s not just about delegates. It’s about MOMENTUM.
If Perry wins IA and SC then his numbers are automatically going to go up in other states. That’s how it is all the time. That’s why Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina fight every cycle to stay early states. They know they are kingmakers.
And if Perry wins SC decisively then he isn’t going to lose FL. After that it’s all over.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:05 pm
7,
He doesn’t need to win Iowa (though it would help). He needs a decent showing there, which he can then use to catapult himself to a win in South Carolina.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:06 pm
teledude Says:
July 28th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Actually what this shows is this race is pretty tight.
A lot can change once campaigning starts. Front runners stumble, insurgents surge…that’s what makes it fun!
It is way to early to hold a coronation or write off any of the top tier candidates. Let’s see them perform against each other.
May the better man or woman win.
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The question is, who is a top tier candidate. Right now its not Perry, but could be. TPaw is apparently making a run at Ames and Bachmanns lead is well documented and then there is the top of the top tier Romney.
By October we will know who is really a top tier candidate.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:07 pm
Many have tried to trump South Carolina, no one has since 1980. They will almost certainly pick our nominee again. Romney needs to work it. Work the the Governor and her good ol’ SC boys until he passes out.
I would imagine their streak carries through 2012.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:08 pm
Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:
July 28th, 2011 at 3:05 pm
6,
It’s not just about delegates. It’s about MOMENTUM.
If Perry wins IA and SC then his numbers are automatically going to go up in other states. That’s how it is all the time. That’s why Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina fight every cycle to stay early states. They know they are kingmakers.
And if Perry wins SC decisively then he isn’t going to lose FL. After that it’s all over.
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Yes Momentum makes a difference, but remember, Perry is not vetted yet. What until we see the adds of Perry endorsing Al Gore for President.
Remember, Fl and SC are not like the old south anymore. They are full of North Eastern retiries and ex-military. So don’t expect Perry to run away with SC, and he is likely to lose Florida.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:09 pm
T-Paw is on life support. He can’t get above 3 percent in national polling and he’s shown essentially no movement all summer in Iowa.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:10 pm
And if Mitt ignores SC as he did last time, he’s even more toast.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:11 pm
Perry is pretty well vetted, much to the consternation of some of the Rombots. Supporting the 1988 version of Al Gore isn’t going to hurt Perry. And if you want to talk about old video then there is a treasure trove of trouble ahead for his Royal Mittness.
For you to blithely say that Perry is likely to lose Florida is nothing more than wishful thinking. And to whatever extent they have ingested northeasterners that didn’t help either Romney or Giuliani last time around.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:14 pm
Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:
July 28th, 2011 at 3:11 pm
Perry is pretty well vetted, much to the consternation of some of the Rombots. Supporting the 1988 version of Al Gore isn’t going to hurt Perry. And if you want to talk about old video then there is a treasure trove of trouble ahead for his Royal Mittness.
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Then he should lose to Romney in SC…
In a Fox News poll conducted jointly by Republican and Democratic research firms this week, Perry received 13 percent support from Republican primary voters. He placed second to Romney’s 18 percent.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/06/30/romney_leads_national_poll_with_perry_in_second_place_110419.html
Doesn’t look to me that Perry is running away with SC.
After Iowa, Romney will rack up New Hampshire and Nevada and will have the big MO going into SC.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:17 pm
17,
That only proves the point. Romney RAN before. Everyone knows him. He’s only at 18. Perry isn’t even in the race yet and he is at 13.
Perry has a much greater upside.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:19 pm
Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:
July 28th, 2011 at 3:17 pm
17,
That only proves the point. Romney RAN before. Everyone knows him. He’s only at 18. Perry isn’t even in the race yet and he is at 13.
Perry has a much greater upside.
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Wait, you already said he was vetted, which means that he is a known quantity. You seem to want it both ways. It is equally possible as voters get to know him they may just as possible go some where else.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:21 pm
No. He WAS vetted. In Texas. He was governor for a decade and had several competent opponents – which he vanquished all.
That doesn’t mean he is known nationally. He isn’t because he never ran a national campaign like Romney.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
Perry has been vetted? Hahahahaha
July 28th, 2011 at 3:26 pm
21,
You don’t win election after election after election after election in the second largest state in the union with stiff competition each time….if you aren’t “vetted”.
It’s not that difficult to understand. Democrats thought they had Perry in the crosshairs multiple times. So did KBH. And you know what else? So did ROVE.
The skeletons they found so far haven’t been too scary.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:28 pm
Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:
No. He WAS vetted. In Texas. He was governor for a decade and had several competent opponents – which he vanquished all.
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Do you have any clue what it means to be vetted. All candidates have been vetted in their local areas or states, but that is different than being vetted nationally. Nationally, every tid bit of your record is gone through in great detail. What works in Texas doesn’t work nationally.
The vetting process will not even start until he announces, if he does.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:37 pm
Vetted in political-speak is savagely attacked nationally–at least if you’re a Republican. Let Perry get out there and let’s get it done. Currently he’s an unknown quantity. People just hopin’ the blind date is The One. The fact that he said he felt “called” may play well in the South, but elsewhere? Very scary words indeed.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Adam X – It’s pointless to debate some of these guys. It seems like if Romney isn’t the nominee that many around here will either pout and stay home or vote for Obama. I thought this was a Republican site to support Republican candidates. Apparently, I was wrong. I am a strong Perry supporter, but I will gladly support and vote for Mitt or any other GOP nominee. Why do we on our side insist on tearing down our own just b/c we like another candidate better?
IMO, Perry will finish top 3 in Iowa and win SC and Florida. As Adam said, that all but locks up the nomination considering the slew of southern states on Super Tuesday.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Being “vetted” in Gun-toting Don’t Mess with Texas is completely different than being vetted in NH, SC, FL, etc.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:46 pm
July 28th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
Corrected.
Not so much nationally or in Iowa or in SC.
Yes and No. It is true that Al Gore in 1988 was much different than the Al Gore today. However in election cycles trying to explain that difference rarely works. The image will stick, not the drawn out explanation. Just like RomneyCare = Obamacare has stuck and the explanations are harder and harder to convey regardless of the truth. It’s the association not the context that people remember.
This is true, and he will have the same issues that Perry has with Gore and any/all other videos.
Let’s watch….
July 28th, 2011 at 3:48 pm
22. Adam, I think Perry has become a known quanitiy over time which is why his popularity in TX is so low right now. He even had to say that a prophet is hated in his own city to exp;lian why he is so unpopular in Texas. Did you not read that? Adam, you would sell your soul for a guy who frequents strip clubs, pushes for vaccine mandates to enrich his close friends, lobbies to cover up his travel expenses for 18 months.
You are not at all religious, are you? I mean, I am a religious person, admittedly, but a strip club to me is Satan’s home on Earth
July 28th, 2011 at 3:55 pm
29. Strip clubs are so numerous in Texas that it’s just part of the culture. Most every man has girls grind on him every now and then. It’s not a big deal in Texas, trust me. Religious types are found in satrip clubs everywhere here. Business deals are even cut in them. I don’t know how it is seen in other states, but that’s Texas culture.
My real problems with Perry relate to pure corruption in the name of the almighty dollar. His vaccine program had no support except his own and that of Merck, yet he tried to lobby for its passage for months just to make some money for friends. His toll road system where Spain came in and owned the roads, rather than open it up to real competition and let all potential buyers come to the table, was a mystery to most.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Bet on a bunch of bad stuff coming out about any of the candidates who win the primary. The Dems are sitting on a pile of stuff against Mitt that they garnered last time around when it looked like he might be McCain’s pick. No strip clubs or gay poems about Mitt, just a lot of stuff that makes him look like a flipper….notwithstanding that BHO contradicts himself every which way to Sunday AND even in the same sentence.
Let’s see what they got on Perry. If he stands up to it and is the nominee, I’m on board.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:04 pm
30 Reginald
And isn’t that the problem w/Perry? Texas is a like a country unto itself. Stuff that flies in TX doesn’t necessarily go over in other states.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:04 pm
While Perry certainly seems to have some problems, he isn’t as flawed as some of the candidates. He doesn’t seem as “crazy” as Bachmann, he probably will have the balls to back up what he says unlike Pawlenty (which is too bad because I think Pawlenty is more electable in the general), and he is viewed as a conservative unlike Huntsman. While I still think Romney will win, Perry will be a formidable challenger. However, I think has to win Iowa to be viable. That may not be so easy for him with Bachmann and TPAW giving Iowa their all. I don’t think Perry will play well in NH.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:06 pm
29. Satan’s home on Earth? Just some guys ogling women and getting a rise. Get over your holier-than-thou attitude. You’re stuck in the 50′s.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:07 pm
Then there’s Nevada sporting a bill board as you leave Las Vegas: “Everything that happens in Vegas doesn’t necessarily stay in Vegas. Get tested here for STDs.”
July 28th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
I think we seem to forget sometimes that, while we cannot get to 270 EV’s without the South, we cannot get to 270 EV’s without the Rocky Mountains and at least part of the Rust Belt.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:12 pm
I think the South Carolina primary might not play as big a role this time. In 2008 it did…because it split huck up and voted mccain. He became the favorite. Romney wasn’t after South Carolina in the first place and likely would’ve won florida if mccain didn’t win south carolina. This time, florida won’t go to the winner of south carolina(IMO). It will likely go to Romney.
If it is already a 2 man race by the time south carolina comes around….romney is gonna be our nominee…and south carolina’s oxygen will be cut off. In fact, i’d bet even money that Romney wins the iowa caucus, new hampshire, nevada and then south carolina might come home to him as well.
Now that’s not desirable to me at all…but i just think Romney is too strong. Perry is gonna get cut up early on when he enters and he’ll flop. He’s got a horrible record.
It’s gonna be Romney/Rubio 2012.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:16 pm
36,
I think people forget that we don’t need a southerner to carry the south anymore. We’re not running against Clinton/Gore. We’re running against the very northern ticket of Obama/Biden. And Clinton/Gore was the smartest ticket the DEMOCRATS could’ve put together…because it doubled down on the south with 2 moderate democrats…which put the south in play. The south will NOT be in play in 2012. And since it’s not as much about regional balance as it is about ideological balance…i would say romney is a winner in 2012.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:17 pm
South Carolina is not a take-all state for the first time. Of course it won’t mean quite as much. That’s by definition in this cycle. The media focus will be more on the electoral totals since the early states are not winner-take-all contests anymore. Romney will be there through Super Tuesday.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:17 pm
And in fact, if you were going to pick a southerner…it would be better to pick one that plays well in the midwest(because of issue positions and connectivity with the voters)…someone like Huckabee. NOT someone like Perry.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:27 pm
The East is a little distorted because I strongly doubt Giuliani will run against Rick Perry or vice versa
CraigS
July 28th, 2011 at 4:28 pm
Here’s to hoping Pawlenty can still thread the needle.
1. Strong showing at Ames.
2. …..turns to some Big Mo.
3. Bachmann implodes being Bachmann
4. Perry fizzles when everyone discovers he’s Perry
5. It’s TPaw vs. Mitt, just like it was supposed to be since Huck passed.
6. TPaw wins Iowa, SC, etc………
July 28th, 2011 at 4:31 pm
Pataki said today he is seriously considering getting in. Seriously.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:31 pm
42,
And that’s the dream scenario for me as well. But what are the odds of that happening? I’d say VERY slim at this point. Pawlenty isn’t gonna win ames…and he has to get 1 or 2 at ames….or he’s done. So, i wouldn’t bet the farm on that.
July 28th, 2011 at 4:37 pm
42 The pale-face TPaw against the colorful Obama? Pawlenty would be 100 times better POTUS than Obama, but………..
July 28th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
South Carolina is not a take-all state for the first time. Of course it won’t mean quite as much. That’s by definition in this cycle. The media focus will be more on the electoral totals since the early states are not winner-take-all contests anymore. Romney will be there through Super Tuesday.
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South Carolina is winner take all. Iowa, NH, SC and Nevada are exempt from the proportionality rule. Also there is a exemption if a candidate gets 50% or more of the vote, that candidate can get all the votes. SC could have as many delegates as Florida and they would be winner take all unlike Florida.
July 28th, 2011 at 5:07 pm
K.G.
I think TPaw would be a very strong opponent in the general. When voters have grown weary of a President, they tend to pick someone who is sort of opposite in some essential way(s). Clinton was young and passionate and got the “vision thing.” Bush was dignified and all about honor. Obama is cosmopolitan and hip. Pawlenty is competent and boring.
But he’s a disciplined candidate, plays well in the suburbs, doesn’t upset any major Republican faction, and has proven appeal to Indies. That, and he’s never lost an election.
July 28th, 2011 at 5:15 pm
47 If he’s so well-received, why isn’t he doing better? Too vanilla, too sanguine, too boring, too upper-midwest. Now, if after Labor Day, when things really get going, things might change for him. It’s too bad; he’s probably a good guy. But looks and personality matter.
July 28th, 2011 at 5:27 pm
SC is by congressional district
July 28th, 2011 at 5:45 pm
K.G.
He hasn’t been all that well received….. yet. We’ll see if he ever is. He’s probably a better general election candidate than primary candidate. He’s made a few mistakes, but the biggest thing that’s hurt him has been the extended silly season, where each successive Flavor of the Month steps over him.
Ultimately, though, vanilla is the most popular flavor.
July 28th, 2011 at 5:55 pm
Tpaw has the potential, unlike some other candidates, to ‘thread the needle’ between upscale and downscale, urban and rural voters.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:16 pm
I like a scoop of pistachio nut with a scoop of banana walnut in a cup.
Vanilla is indeed the most popular. But better with pie.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:20 pm
Craig,
Is Bachmann supposed to be the nut?
July 28th, 2011 at 6:21 pm
#51 If that were the case, wouldn’t we be seeing evidence of his popularity by now?
July 28th, 2011 at 6:23 pm
Six,
See #50
July 28th, 2011 at 6:24 pm
What Dave G and most Romney fans don’t get it that Mitt is the NE equivalant in terms of cultural cues, etc, of Haley Barbour. That’s why his poll numbers are stuck where they are and that’s why he’ll need to make a big leap with his VP choice. I, of course, submit Mike Huckabee.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:26 pm
#45 & #47 &51 Only if the Independent and moderate crowd forget T-Paw played the wink-wink Christian card AND he stops playing that card from here on out. Otherwise, he will not gain traction with that essential group.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:32 pm
#55 Matt – I’ll just drive myself down to 31 Flavors and contemplate that analogy along with a couple of ice cream flavors and wait for the epiphany about Pawlentry’s inevitableness to hit.
Probably a good thing there are 31 flavors? I may be there for a while.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:33 pm
don’t get *is* that
July 28th, 2011 at 6:35 pm
mac,
Exactly. Everyone is so concerned about those Southern cues- and with merit- but no one seems to be hand wringing over Northeast cues, which can seem distant, slick, and phony to those in the heartland.
BTW. I’ve got an ear on CSPAN. Sounds like Boehner roped in the votes by attaching a vote on a balanced budget amendment to the bill.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:36 pm
Six,
If you’re going to eat all 31 flavors, you might want to walk, instead of drive.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:41 pm
MWS, yes, Mitt’s cues are, inversely, as big a problem for him as are Perry’s.
July 28th, 2011 at 7:06 pm
They don’t call us Hucknuts for nothing.
The Hucknuts for Bachmann Marching and Chowder Society
July 28th, 2011 at 11:27 pm
Folks, Perry hasn’t said a thing. His strength is the southern evangelical Christians who don’t care much for Mormons. The real question will come down to the following:
A) There’s 1 year 5 months left of Barrack’s ministry. By then the economy might be in such shape that Mickey Mouse could win.
B) Perry isn’t remotely vetted yet.
1. He needs to explain the multi-billion dollar shortfall in his budget. If he can’t balance his own budget what make his able to balance Americas.
2. Did he receive direct revelation from Christ to run for President.
3. Why has he waited to start his election.
4. What was the Bildeberger meeting all about. Just to name a few.
C) Mitt Romney hasn’t so fired a round across anyone’s bow but Barracks. If he hold to that any Republican can run against him. He wouldn’t care. (Likewise, Perry hasn’t fired one on him either.)
It seems there are more states in play: FL, MI. I really feel who wins Florida is the real key. I see Romney winning NH, NV, Bachmann winning IO, Perry winning SC? Then going to FL.
Anyway until Perry enters the race for real and is then vetted properly everything I said above is all academic.
July 29th, 2011 at 1:18 am
#30 Strip clubs? Wait until Perry’s evangelical base hears this. It may be ok in Texas, but not the rest of the U.S.
July 29th, 2011 at 8:30 am
Thunder get over Perry endorsing Gore in 1988. I was in primary school in 1988! But I’m hearing that Bush may well endorse Romney in Florida (if he has to) and that would make all the difference.
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