PPP (D) Virginia 2012 Senatorial Survey
- Tim Kaine 46% {46%} [47%] (50%)
- George Allen 43% {44%} [47%] (44%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Tim Kaine 42% {42%} [46%] (43%) / 40% {41%} [38%] (40%) {+2%}
- George Allen 34% {36%} [39%] (40%) / 44% {42%} [40%] (41%) {-10%}
Survey of 500 Virginia voters was conducted July 21-24, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 36% {34%} [34%] (35%) Republican; 35% {37%} [39%] (36%) Democrat; 30% {29%} [27%] (30%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% {31%} [32%] Moderate; 21% {22%} [25%] Somewhat conservative; 20% {21%} [16%] Very conservative; 18% {18%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 11% {8%} [11%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 5-8, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.
July 27th, 2011 at 8:00 pm
I’m afraid the federal government has grown so big, we may lose Virginia to the Dems for a looooooong time.
July 27th, 2011 at 8:03 pm
My man, Allen!
July 27th, 2011 at 8:06 pm
..will win this on our ticket’s coattails. Link the Dem with Obama ..and pray.
July 27th, 2011 at 8:10 pm
Now that is just sad. kaine is a moron. why is allen even in the conversation after screwing the republicans so badly last time. his arrogance was unbelievable.
July 27th, 2011 at 8:28 pm
Hmmm..
I was/am expecting to see comments like.. “Allen down by 3 at PPP? Means he’s winning by 7 at Rasmussen!”
July 27th, 2011 at 9:14 pm
I do wish we had another Republican running against Kaine. Allen never seemed to me to be the sharpest tool in the shed. His stupid “macaca” remark cost us this seat last time, and Kaine is a much smarter politiican than Webb.
Maybe Governor McDonnell will decide to jump into the race, or Lt. Governor Bill Bolling or another Virginia Republican. George Allen is in the past; we need a candidate that’s looking forward.
July 27th, 2011 at 10:00 pm
6:
Eh, macaca is the very definition of made up outrage. After extensive research, it was discovered that it was a racial slur in another country. Everyone pile on.
July 27th, 2011 at 10:33 pm
Allen isn’t the best candidate. I do think this poll favors the Dems more than it should though. I live in Virginia. The widespread support that existed for Obama, and that helped elect Warner and Webb is fading in an obvious way. I don’t know who else would run in place of Allen though. McDonnell isn’t giving up his seat as governor. Bolling is planning to run for governor when McDonnell’s term is up. Personally, I think being the Governor of Virginia is a lot more appealing than being in the U.S. Senate. Cantor isn’t giving up his leadership position (and probably would be as bad a candidate as Allen, with as polarizing as he is. I think Allen is the best we can do in Virginia, and he should be able to pull it off if he is smart and there is an anti-Obama wave as I am expecting there to be in 2012.
July 27th, 2011 at 11:15 pm
“I’m afraid the federal government has grown so big, we may lose Virginia to the Dems for a looooooong time.”
VA becoming another MD? Possibly. Blowback from deficit reduction on part of the Republicans may motivate both the Govt workers and the shadowy consulting firms that got rich of contracts during the CLinton/Bush/Obama years to support the Dems more strongly out of self preservation than other parts of the country
July 27th, 2011 at 11:20 pm
I agree with Jaxemer11. As a Virginian, I also believe Allen is the best candidate we’re going to get in this race (unfortunately). Before he was elected AG, Ken Cuccinelli would have been a great candidate for this race – he is an unabashed conservative who had been elected to the House of Delegates in the heavily Democrat-trending Northern Virginia region. However, his time as AG has been polarizing, too. I don’t know why so many (R) candidates in VA become so polarizing, but that seems to be the trend (outside of Gov. McDonnell and my new Congressman down here, Scott Rigell). It’s something we’re going to have to correct sooner rather than later, as the Commonwealth is trending more moderate while our candidates keep seeking out room on the far right side of the plank. We’re destined to lose if we keep with the current trend.
July 28th, 2011 at 12:02 am
10 – Exactly. Cuccinelli seemed to go off the deep end shortly after his election. He seemed next in line for the Governship, but I think his days in state-wide office are numbered. Just a little too fringey at this point.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:05 am
#10 and 11. . . Isn’t this a problem nationwide these days? Seems nowadays that if you’re not a diehard right wing Tea Party socon, you’re labeled a squishy RINO and drummed out of the party. Candidates may become polarizing, but that appears to me to be the fault of party politics and a new culture standing steadfast against compromising of any kind, where the Mike Castles and John McCains and Richard Lugars – even the Mitt Romneys – are no longer Republican enough for the GOP. Case in point is the GOP debt ceiling debate raging in the House today. I don’t know much about Cuccinelli, but if he wants a future in the GOP he probably sees his polarizing rightward turn as the best thing for his own political future.
July 28th, 2011 at 3:26 am
The unfortunately divisive RINO term is ONLY used to ridicule the other candidate. Heavens no, never the one you support! It’s always the other persons guy or gal who represents the party’s imminent danger of downfall.
It has nothing to do with one’s governing record or achievements. Zero, nada, ziltch.
It has everything to do with a cult-like devotion to ones “perfect” candidate. And why we are stuck with Obama for four to eight looooooong years.
July 28th, 2011 at 9:01 am
Virginia is IT to me. If Kaine wins, Obama takes Virginia again and that could be it. Its over for us. I could be wrong but thats what I think.
July 28th, 2011 at 9:40 am
George Allen being down 3 points in a Daily Kos poll to the most popular Democrat in the state doesn’t exactly equate to the Apocalypse. Virginia will be close in both the Senate and Presidential elections, but we can win both….with the right candidates.
It’s why it would make sense for Romney to put McDonnell on the ticket.
July 28th, 2011 at 10:20 am
12:
I don’t have any problem with drumming the Castles, McCains, and Lugars out of the party. They are bad bad bad bad bad bad bad Republicans. Did you happen to see McCain’s comments to the Senate the other day? Lousy creature of the blackhole we call the Senate.
14:
We have plenty of avenues without Virginia.
July 28th, 2011 at 10:26 am
7, that is not the point. the point is his opponent was videotaping him and he made that comment. Only an arrogant idiot would do that.
July 28th, 2011 at 10:46 am
17:
Or a person not aware he was saying something that happened to be an out of use obscure slur on another continent.
July 28th, 2011 at 10:48 am
Survey of 500 Virginia voters
At best, this is a registered voter screen, though they don’t even say that. Likely result is at least a few points towards Sen Allen. That said, I really do wish a better candidate could be found for this race. Whether the charge has merit or not, he flubbed the “macaca” incident, and that will be held against him.
July 28th, 2011 at 10:49 am
15 – You’re exactly right. I think Allen has a good shot. I just don’t know that he is the most popular Republican in the state. I think McDonnell would easily win if he were the candidate (which he won’t be).
July 28th, 2011 at 10:50 am
@ 16 – “We have plenty of avenues without Virginia.”
This is a terrible approach. Virginia is not something you give up lightly.
July 28th, 2011 at 11:02 am
21:
You’re putting words in my mouth. I didn’t say Virginia should be given up on. I said we could win without it.
July 28th, 2011 at 11:13 am
bottom line is, Virginia is was always supposed to be a conservative “reliable” state.
July 28th, 2011 at 11:25 am
16. “Did you happen to see McCain’s comments to the Senate the other day?”
If you’re referring to when he said that congressmen in office for just a few months holding the debt ceiling debate hostage for a Constitutional amendment were unfair and “bizarro”, then yes I heard it and I thought it was a brilliant comment, one of his best. Should have been said weeks ago. But I guess that makes me a bad bad bad bad bad bad bad Republican too.
July 28th, 2011 at 11:49 am
23:
The new reality is that Virginia’s not a reliable conservative state anymore. It’s a battleground at best, and slipping further away.
24:
Yes it does. McCain’s speech was uncalled for, arrogant, and every bit as counter-productive as he claims the freshman Republicans are being. It highlights every reason that he both lost the election last time and why he should never have been nominated in the first place.