CNN/ORC 2012 GOP Nomination Survey
- Mitt Romney 17% [24%] {15%} (11%) [18%] {18%} (20%) [21%] {20%} (22%)
- Michele Bachmann 15% [4%] {7%} (5%)
- Sarah Palin 15% [20%] {13%} (12%) [12%] {19%} (14%) [18%] {15%} (18%)
- Rudy Giuliani 14% [12%] {16%}
- Ron Paul 9% [7%] {12%} (7%) [8%] {7%} (7%) [10%] {8%} (8%)
- Herman Cain 8% [10%] {10%}
- Newt Gingrich 4% [10%] {8%} (11%) [14%] {10%} (12%) [15%] {14%} (8%)
- Tim Pawlenty 4% [3%] {5%} (2%) [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {2%} (5%)
- Rick Santorum 3% [1%] {2%} (2%) [3%] {1%} (2%) [2%] {3%} (5%)
- Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] {1%}
- Gary Johnson 1% {1%}
- Someone else (vol.) 1% [2%] {3%} (3%) [4%] {5%} (7%) [6%] {5%} (8%)
- None/No one (vol.) 8% [2%] {5%} (4%) [3%] {4%} (4%) [0%] {5%} (2%)
- No opinion 2% [3%] {2%} (1%) [2%] {2%} (6%) [4%] {1%} (3%)
Among Republicans (MoE: +/-6.0%)
- Mitt Romney 18%
- Rick Perry 15%
- Sarah Palin 14%
- Rudy Giuliani 12%
- Michele Bachmann 9%
- Ron Paul 8%
- Herman Cain 4%
- Newt Gingrich 4%
- Tim Pawlenty 2%
- Rick Santorum 2%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
- Gary Johnson 0%
- Thaddeus McCotter 0%
Among GOP-Leaning Independents (MoE: +/-7.5%)
- Michele Bachmann 15%
- Rudy Giuliani 14%
- Rick Perry 14%
- Mitt Romney 12%
- Sarah Palin 10%
- Ron Paul 9%
- Herman Cain 8%
- Newt Gingrich 4%
- Tim Pawlenty 3%
- Gary Johnson 1%
- Rick Santorum 0%
- Jon Huntsman 0%
- Thaddeus McCotter 0%
If Rick Perry Runs
- Mitt Romney 16%
- Rick Perry 14%
- Rudy Giuliani 13%
- Sarah Palin 13%
- Michele Bachmann 12%
- Ron Paul 8%
- Herman Cain 6%
- Newt Gingrich 4%
- Tim Pawlenty 3%
- Rick Santorum 2%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
- Gary Johnson 0%
- Thaddeus McCotter 0%
- Someone else (vol.) 1%
- None/No one (vol.) 8%
- No opinion 1%
Regardless of who you support, please tell me whether you would or would not like to see each of the following people run for the Republican nomination for President.
Rudy Giuliani
- Would like to see run 54%
- Would not like to see run 44%
Sarah Palin
- Would like to see run 55% (53%)
- Would not like to see run 45% (47%)
Rick Perry
- Would like to see run 50% {40%}
- Would not like to see run 33% {50%}
How satisfied are you with the field of Republican candidates running for President? Are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not satisfied at all?
- Very satisfied 14% {16%}
- Fairly satisfied 52% {45%}
- Not very satisfied 25% {28%}
- Not satisfied at all 9% {11%}
Survey of 455 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted July 18-20, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 3-7, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 24-26, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9-10, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 11-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 21-23, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 27-30, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 6-10, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:33 pm
Iowa straw poll ballet includes Gingrich and Romney and excludes Palin and Perry. Voters are free to write in any names they want from list of nine candidates. Added interest to the Ames polling
CraigS
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:44 pm
Mitt continues to struggle against a field of no names, has beens, and never wuzzes.
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:46 pm
Wow, Rudy is on the way to the top in this poll.
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:48 pm
Here comes CNN with another poll to try to prop up canndiates that can’t win a general election. Who to believe, Rasmussen or CNN?????
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:53 pm
Actually, this poll does not include independents, just 455 Republicans – not any Republican-leaning independents, so that piece should probably be removed.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/07/21/rel11c.pdf
July 23rd, 2011 at 1:56 pm
Oh and so my hardcore Rombot friends don’t get a big head..
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-favorability-romney
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:01 pm
Greg,
Just because they don’t use the words “Republican leaning Independents” doesn’t mean they aren’t including under the rubric “Republican,” what other pollsters separately classify as “Republican leaning independents”.
Rombots are amazingly predictable when it comes to which polls they consider “legit” and which they don’t. That’s part of what makes them Rombots. I don’t think there are more than 4-5 Rombots on this site who can do an honest, objective analysis of a poll, and not simply shill for their man.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:01 pm
FWIW, Huck’s good numbers are almost opposite of Romney’s in the polltracker charting.
Palin’s are what we expect them to be..
A circus off the charts.
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-favorability-palin
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:03 pm
These polls that include random people that aren’t running are even more worthless than the ones that don’t include them (and those are pretty worthless to begin with right now). Who are we going to put on there next time? Ronald Reagan?
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:03 pm
Of course, with Matt (7) around, big heads are dooooooomed!
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:05 pm
Greg,
Actually, this poll DOES include Independents. Look at the crosstabs:
Among Republicans (MoE: +/-6.0%)
Mitt Romney 18%
Rick Perry 15%
Sarah Palin 14%
Rudy Giuliani 12%
Michele Bachmann 9%
Ron Paul 8%
Herman Cain 4%
Newt Gingrich 4%
Tim Pawlenty 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Gary Johnson 0%
Thaddeus McCotter 0%
Among Independents (MoE: +/-7.5%)
Michele Bachmann 15%
Rudy Giuliani 14%
Rick Perry 14%
Mitt Romney 12%
Sarah Palin 10%
Ron Paul 9%
Herman Cain 8%
Newt Gingrich 4%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Gary Johnson 1%
Rick Santorum 0%
Jon Huntsman 0%
Thaddeus McCotter 0%
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:06 pm
The only polls that are even worth looking at are those that poll likely voters, and even those don’t mean much right now. These media organizations are about getting a news story and nothing else. And I have been consistent about saying that whether Romney looks good or not, so shove it MWS.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:06 pm
Latest CNN poll….7 out of 10 GOP voters do not want to have same sex marriage recognized…….
…..Perry believes State Rights trump Traditional Marriage….
….Perry.will.not.win.Iowa.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:11 pm
Matt “MWS” Says: “I don’t think there are more than 4-5 Rombots on this site who can do an honest, objective analysis of a poll, and not simply shill for their man.”
I agree, but it’s the same for every candidate. Too many folks live vicariously through their candidate, like Little League Dads who feel victory through their kids. There are good commenters here though, and those of us without a candidate, looking for helpful information and commentary, pretty quickly learn whose comments are reliable.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:13 pm
Jax,
If you work off you theory that any not so good poll for Romney is just a defective poll out to get Mitt (which I don’t, my friend), then Bachmann has much more to complain about here than Romney.
If Rick Perry Runs
•Mitt Romney 16%
•Rick Perry 14%
•Rudy Giuliani 13%
•Sarah Palin 13%
•Michele Bachmann 12%
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:14 pm
According to the rules of the Ames Straw poll the Iowa GOP party decides who they want on the ballot. The decision is theirs alone, and they are not tied to who reserved space or not. Palin and Perry names should have been included on the ballot, however Iowans will be able to write their names on the ballot.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:14 pm
All slams labels and snarky put downs of supporters mean nothing. Each time a candidate drops out or fizzles out it would be fun to post every costic, braggadocious post from their supporters who refused to control their own mouth. Any blogger who is rude, boastful and disrespectful has the right to be so, but they should pay the price when they do. Now that would be entertaining.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:15 pm
Here’s my advice to Mitt.
Loan himself about $50,000,000 (that’s like $5,000 to me and you) and get off that 16 polling number!
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:17 pm
greg is right only self identified republicans were included in this poll. There would have been a breakdown of republicans versus independents. CNN has these breakdowns in other polls where independents were included. These were just self-identified republicans that may or may not vote, thus Rudy at such a high figure
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:20 pm
There aren’t any independents in this poll. It was only republicans and no separation of likely voters
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:20 pm
I am glad to see a poll of only R’s because aren’t most contests closed to registered R’s? I know IA and SC are closed, but NH is open to indies.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:21 pm
I see that the RINO establishment is tossing in their latest ABP candidate, Jebby Bush, who says:
“… You never say never. This is a standard answer that I’ve kind of learned how to give which is — you never say never, but I never rule out being on Dancing with the Stars either … there are a lot of ways you can make a difference.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s...
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:22 pm
per the above, “abp” = “anybody but Palin”
The elite establishment realize neither Romney nor Huntsman nor Pawlenty have any hope whatsoever of getting the GOP nomination, and since they now realize Obama is going down before the ’12 election, Jebby is moving his plans up from 2016 to 2012.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:22 pm
Craig for Huck,
These national polls are worthless….you know that. Romney has spent 116 million dollars in “07-08″, and has been campaigning this year and is only 2 points ahead of Perry???????
Does it really matter if Mitt is 2 pts or 10 pts ahead of Perry right now????
No..it doesn’t.
These National polls are just pops and buzzes…that’s it.
The Iowa polls have meaning…Bachmann is ahead…
The New Hampshire polls have meaning……Romney is ahead.
But even in those two states…it’s early. The fight over Iowa has now only just begun…and we see TPAW’s numbers creeping up. The fight over New Hampshire hasn’t even begun yet.
These national polls have just a tiny,tiny,tiny,tiny bit more meaning to them then when Trump was at 21% in these polls 2 months ago.
That’s it.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:23 pm
Confirmed moments ago..
Without Perry’s and Palin’s names on the ballot, Michele rock & rolls Ames!
!
My question to Michele is..
Does she need or can she use a slightly overweight (like the rest of the Heartland is) but smiling bass player on her stage?
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:23 pm
corrected Jeb Bush going for POTUS citation:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/59717.html
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:24 pm
Still drawing her paycheck so I guess you can’t call her a quitter!
As Bachmann hits trail, her voting record drops
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/126030553.html
In all, Bachmann voted just twice in the past week, skipping 45 out of 47 House roll-call votes since last Friday.
Since the June New Hampshire debate in which Bachmann announced she was as running for president, she has missed 51 votes.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:25 pm
It will be interesting to see if any pro-Mitt group can put together a significant showing at Ames. If Romney could place second, or even third, it would essentially disqualify anyone falling below him.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:25 pm
once Palin “officially” announces, Bachmann is ________ (well, you fill in the blank)
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:27 pm
toast
extra crispy
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:28 pm
I like the calmed down version of Smack so much better.
Nice post.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:30 pm
I am personally happy to see an all-republican poll like this. I have wanted to see who the republican favorites are without the influence of independents. I guess this is why Giuliani and a couple of others look better.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:33 pm
Yep, Rudy still has some draw in an all republican survey, though is not a poll of likely voters, just people who indentifed themselves as republicans
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:33 pm
28.
I, as a neutral observer albeit with many candidates on my plate to help defeat Obama with.. would fill in the blank proudlly like this:
has been President for eight full years and Palin would like to be the 2nd woman president following MB.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:34 pm
So much for Mitt Romney “the front runner”.
The moment Sarah Palin throws her 50 gallon hat in the ring
she will leave Willard behind in the cloud of dust.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:35 pm
Craig for Huck,
You won’t get the calm down version of Smackdaddy come August 13th. RACE42012 better shut down their site for the day…. it won’t be able to take the traffic that Smackdaddy’s rants will bring on the site.
The Palinistas and Perrydrones will not go to the Ames straw poll and vote for Bachmann……Bachmann does not gain… in reality, because they are not on the ballot. It only means that the narrative is Bachmann needs to dominate AMES.
Michele will not dominate.
Michele will not win.
Huck will have Michele on his show….but that’s it…….Mike will have nothing to do with the Nut job’s campaign.
Iowa is TPAW Country!!
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:35 pm
Hey Smack, do you agree with Pawlenty’s staffers? Will you be happy with anything over sixth place at Ames? How could he possibly do worse than fifth?
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:35 pm
#26 -
This is common…far more common (and reasonable) then quitting in the middle of your term when you AREN’T running for anything else.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:36 pm
Hey Craig, in case you forgot to learn how to read, I think all early polls are a waste of time, including those that show Romney doing well (and have said that repeatedly). It is mostly about media manipulation, and not much else.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:37 pm
34 – Can’t wait for that day. When is it going to happen?
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:38 pm
37,
Bingo!
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:39 pm
I was teasing you, Jax
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:40 pm
39
Some time in August or early September,her own words.
Until then enjoy Willard being the “front runner”.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:43 pm
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/07/23/pawlenty-to-obama-i-love-god-america-and-the-second-amendmen/
“I got a message for President Obama: I love God. I love America. And I love the Second Amendment.”
“The current president of the United States, Barack Obama, stood in San Francisco, California not too long ago when he wanted to be our president, and he ridiculed small-town America and he said essentially that they’re fearful or that they’re worrisome. He said they quote ‘Cling to God and their guns.’ He was making fun of us.”
Wrapping up the brief four-minute speech, Pawlenty said he was the only governor to ever sign conceal and carry twice. He also used an illustration from his stump speeches, saying that more people have died from the light-rail train in downtown Minneapolis than from Minnesota permit holders.”
Results vs. Rhetoric.
TPAW vs. Bachmann.
Conservative Record vs. Conservative Bomb Thrower.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:45 pm
Poll Reading 101 (Then I have to leave y’all to go see a man about a horse.)Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2012 Republican Nomination Survey
CNN/ORC 2012 GOP Nomination Survey
•Mitt Romney 17% [24%] {15%}
•Michele Bachmann 15% [4%] {7%}
•Ron Paul 9% [7%] {12%}
•Herman Cain 8% [10%] {10%}
•Newt Gingrich 4% [10%] {8%}
•Tim Pawlenty 4% [3%] {5%}
It’s almost all about the trends in every scientific poll on earth.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:48 pm
Poll after poll shows us that Romney is a very weak front runner.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:48 pm
Jax,
The TPAW camp is just playing the expectation game.
I’m only happy if TPAW defeats Bachmann at AMES.
I’m only happy if TPAW get’s first place at AMES.
That is why the organization was built….all the time spent…..all the money spent.
MISSION: VICTORY AT AMES!
There should be no confusion on my expectations in regards to AMES. I volunteered 7 times in Iowa for my guy TPAW no to come in third.
The numbers are moving in the right direction for TPAW in Iowa. Nobody is disputing that…..no one in the other camps. TPAW is ready for victory at AMES. The Bachmann team is in a state of panic. They know that there poll numbers do not compute to Straw poll votes directly.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:54 pm
Craig for Huck,
There is a bigger trend…more important trend. Bachmann always does worse in her elections then expectations.
Bachmann ran 7 pts worse then John McCain in 2008 in the MN 6th District. Bachmann ran well under what the GOP congresswoman should have done in 2010…..big GOP cycle.
You only like Bachmann because of her current poll numbers….she will disappoint you in the end.
July 23rd, 2011 at 2:58 pm
Final Ames Straw poll ballot is set.
Perry, Palin not on ballot. Neither are Karger, Johnson, and Romer. Mitt is.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/59719.html
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:04 pm
Massachusetts Conservative,
It sounds like the voting was close…a bunch of 5 to 5 votes in the committee. The TPAW camp said it did not care one way or the other. The Bachmann & Cain camp wanted Perry and Palin off the ballot.
I would rather have Perry and Palin included even if hurts TPAW because the straw poll is for the people.
Craig Robinson “IowaRepublican.com” said you can tell which camp is confident about AMES…the one that is not making a big deal about it either way.
..ahem……..ahem….
Sorry…just had to clear my throat.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:10 pm
The news on the Straw Poll won’t help Pawlenty. Put Perry and Palin on the ballot and the hard-right has a lot more choices. It seems that Pawlenty’s best hope right now is a divided hard-right. Unless of course that famed Pawlenty organization Smack has been talking about is the real deal.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Jax,
“so shove it MWS.”
Is something bothering you, Jax?
Do you want to talk about it?
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:16 pm
Jonathan,
Yep….it’s the real deal.
Another point to consider Jonathan…..those hard right voters..the ones who want Perry or Palin to jump in are not going to cast their vote for Bachmann at AMES….it goes against their interest.
Example:
TEX & tele, who want Palin to run, would not go to AMES and cast a vote for Bachmann..they just wouldn’t do it. Why give Bachmann more perceived strength?!
This ballot doesn’t hurt TPAW. The more Romney decides to play at AMES the more TPAW gets hurt, but other then that we are set.
Look for TPAW to start concentrating on Davenport…..”Romney Iowa country”. TPAW was all over the place last week. Next week will be Eastern Iowa week for TPAW.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:22 pm
Smack:
While there are definitely hard-core Perryites and Palinistas who would strategically cast their votes like that, I’m thinking there are softer supporters who wouldn’t. Their ideal candidate may not be in the race, but I’d bet they’d vote for their 2nd choice, and it’s unlikely to be Pawlenty.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:23 pm
50. Pawlenty has the organization for Ames. That’s all it takes.
Find 4,000 people and pay there way to a party for the day. I believe he has the best campaign structure to pull that off.
I fully expect T-Paw to win the Ames Straw Poll.
I doubt there will be many write in votes for Palin.
Who would pay $35 out of their own pocket to write her in when hasn’t announced yet? not many.
This is a great fund raiser for the Iowa GOP.
I wonder if Romney skipping it (and thus not helping the state party at all) will have any detrimental effects on his campaign in Iowa?
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:28 pm
Jonathan,
Good point.
There will be no way to prove this, but I think more Bachmann people will go to the straw poll and write in Perry or Palin then Pwwlenty ticket/bus riders will write in Perry or Palin.
At any rate…no excuses. The ballot is fine. TPAW location out back is fine. We got what we need.
MISSION: VICTORY AT AMES!!
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:29 pm
teledude,
You are a genius.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:29 pm
#54:
My concern on the Romney front wouldn’t be so much his organization for the caucus’s, but more importantly, for the fall campaign if he’s the nominee. One good side-effect of the primaries is getting the organization in place for the general election. Skipping the state in the primary season can’t help a candidate’s organization in the fall.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:30 pm
55. Smack,
I’ll drive down, but
how do I get my Pawlenty ticket in?
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:33 pm
Tele,
Let you in on a secret.
Just between you and me.
Everybody else will close their eyes when they read this post.
It’s only going to take 3,500.
Romney got 4500 and Huck got 2500 in 2007.
There was an unnamed Iowa Political operative in a TIME article that said Bachmann will not be able to reach 3500 because of a poor Organization.
TPAW will get 3500…+1….+2…whatever it takes. We won’t need 4,000.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:35 pm
Smack:
How’s the Bachmann organization? I read on Politico that whatever enthusiasm she has isn’t matched by her ground game. Does she have a ground game worth anything or is it not up to par?
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:37 pm
The Bachmann & Cain camp wanted Perry and Palin off the ballot.
==================================
Vindictive aren’t they? I think I would go and vote for Ron Paul. I think there should be a new rule. Anyone who finishes behind Palin and Perry should get out. If you can’t beat two people who are not running then it’s time to go.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:37 pm
http://www.pawlentyfaith.com
Go ahead tele….click that baby on.
You see…tele…………..people are going to be shocked when they see the EVANS coming out for TPAW.
Go to that website…just another clue I’m giving you all. Only teledude has been able to get past group think and see the light.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:38 pm
What a joyfully jumbled mess this all is! Surges, counter-surges, 2 Texans and 2 Minnesotans, 2 Mormons, 2 Libertarians, Johnson and Huntsman wrestling over the Western vote in NH, shadow candidates, surrogate candidates, pizza candidates, Fox non-candidates, a guy with a big jewelry tab, some glittering happening now and then, caribou killers, varmint killers, gay lovers, gay haters.
It used to be the Democrats who had colorful Primaries! And the kick off sort of a voting thingy is close. It’s all so close even Palin is going to have to decide. Even Perry is going to have to pray or get out of the pulpit. Even Giuliani is going to have choose, (but he doesn’t have to leave Florida).
I love it! Cancel my subscription to Soap Opera Weekly, turn up the volume on that news channel!
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:41 pm
63. I’m with you watch!
this is fun!
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Tim’s wife is a real asset.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:45 pm
#63:
Lest we forget, there are also two Georgians, one of whom is part of another duo, the washed-up politician who hasn’t been elected to anything in over 10 years (Roemer and Gingrich are this category).
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:49 pm
Rick Perry has passed up Mitt Romney on Intrade.
Rick Perry 31.5
Mitt Romney 30.2
Michele Bachmann 9.4
Jon Huntsman Jr 6.8
Tim Pawlenty 6.0
Sarah Palin 5.0
Where is MattC when you need him? I know he likes to update his Intrade weekly post.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:51 pm
Dang! I’ll fully invested on Intrade…but that is one I would short in a heart beat.
Easy money.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:54 pm
Jonathan,
I’m going to give you a couple of examples of the poor organization that Bachmann has for the AMES straw poll.
After each meet and greet that the Bachmann team has with voters in Iowa (Michele does not have Town Halls) her people go around with their IPADS and type in contact information from the attendees who acknowledge an interest in going to the Ames Straw poll for Michele. The names that they put into their IPADS go into their AMES database.
Sounds good doesn’t it?
But it isn’t………good.
The TPAW camp…and the Romney camp in 2007 do it a little different..and a whole lot better. The TPAW camp have contact cards printed out where they give to all the attendees to their Town Halls. The contact cards are made to where half the information stays with the voter and the other half stays with the TPAW camp. The TPAW camp receives the voter information and the voter gets information that drives them to different websites and phone numbers to get them to AMES. In some settings the TPAW camp drives people to the Pawlentyfaith.com…..in some other setting it might be Iowastrawpoll.com..which goes to directly to TPAW. The TPAW camp has built a two-way communication with their potential voters. The Bachmann team is only…well…..them calling the voter.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders has the connections…not Rollins. Sarah had 1700 names on her list to get to AMES for her dad…..1500 of them showed up in 2007.
Another thing that the TPAW camp does that the Bachmannn team can’t do, is to give phone numbers of local IOWA GOP party people in the area.and give those numbers directly to the voter..and that party person will get that voter to AMES.
Bachmann does not have the establishment in Iowa to pull this off…..Romney did in 2007…and so will TPAW in 2011.
That is just a couple of examples…there are others.
July 23rd, 2011 at 3:55 pm
65#
teledude,
Yep.
Yep.
Mary Pawlenty.
It’s happening.
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Thanks Smack, much appreciated. We all know that organization is huge in Iowa, glad to hear that Bachmann’s isn’t so hot. She needs to be knocked done a bit. I’d much rather have candidates who’ve actually done something doing well instead of big talkers.
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Watchinitall,
Beautiful,
except…
There is only 1 Minnesotan. Bachmann says she is an Iowan.
When this is over she can stay in Iowa. Everything she learned she learned in Iowa…that what she has said.
Yep, only 1 true Minnesotan…the Hockey Player.
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:04 pm
#68 Smack: Actually, iowastrawpoll.com is a domain name for sale. It doesn’t redirect to T-Paw’s site.
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:06 pm
I am new to Intrade…but the way I understand it is, all contracts end either at $10 or $0, depending on whether the event you have “invested” in happens. Is this right?
Right now “Tim Pawlenty to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll” is selling for .99 cents/share.
If he wins it will “vest?”/”mature?/whatever at $10 dollars a share. Am I reading this right?
That looks like easy money to me.
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:07 pm
73. http://action.iowastrawpoll2011.com/
is the Pawlenty domain
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:11 pm
Ayers email to supporters: MUST READ:
Thank you for your encouragement and words of continued support for Governor Pawlenty in response to last Friday’s email.
I spent the week on the road with the Governor and Mrs. Pawlenty. We traveled nearly 700 miles through Iowa, stopped in 18 counties, slept in five different hotels, visited four Subway sandwich shops, and ended the week with one game of pick-up hockey in Des Moines (T.Paw even scored!). No matter where we went, Iowans were interested to learn about Governor Pawlenty’s values, experience, and vision for our country. It was clear his authenticity resonated with them. He successfully made the case, that in 2008, voters elected a member of Congress with no executive experience. We can’t afford the cost of inexperience any longer, and Iowans get are getting that. He also made the case that we have a leading candidate for President who is running from his record and another who doesn’t have a record. Governor Pawlenty is proud of his record. Iowans got that, too.
But, most importantly, Iowans understand the fact that he turned around one of the most liberal states in America.
As you know Governor Pawlenty transformed the Minnesota Supreme Court. He set a record for gubernatorical vetoes. He took on the unions and successfully reformed their pensions. He took on the teachers unions and successfully passed the nation’s first merit pay system in education. And he refused to increase spending with a Democratic legislature — in defense of the taxpayers — was forced to shut down the government over it and won. Most Americans and many Iowans don’t know this story, but they are finding it out now. This doesn’t make great fodder for cable news but as more Republican primary voters start to tune in to the race, they are finding out that the Governor’s record and message will stand the test a brutal campaign. Other candidates’ records (or lack thereof), and plans for the future (or lack thereof) won’t.
Yes, the national press continue to write a different narrative. But no successful campaign goes untested. We’re weathering our “test” well and here are a few nuggets of proof:
• We just had a record week of straw poll sign-ups.
• According to a 1,000 sample size poll in Iowa this week — we are now in second place — ahead of Romney, behind Bachmann.
• 11 more legislators endorsed us in Florida.
• We launched these two ads in Iowa: http://bit.ly/nfrWVv and http://bit.ly/ploH2I
• Local Iowa press tells the real story: http://bit.ly/o0oc8s
Last, don’t miss CNN’s State of the Union tomorrow airing at 9:00 am EDT with a replay at 12:00 pm EDT. The Governor pre-taped an interview with Candy Crowley yesterday, and you won’twant to miss it. Again, thanks for your continued support and encouragement.
Keep fighting with us,
Nick Ayers
hhehhehehhhhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehheeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Teledude,
Buy!!!!!!!
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:12 pm
Nick Ayers: letter to supporters
I spent the week on the road with the Governor and Mrs. Pawlenty. We traveled nearly 700 miles through Iowa, stopped in 18 counties, slept in five different hotels, visited four Subway sandwich shops, and ended the week with one game of pick-up hockey in Des Moines (T.Paw even scored!). No matter where we went, Iowans were interested to learn about Governor Pawlenty’s values, experience, and vision for our country. It was clear his authenticity resonated with them. He successfully made the case, that in 2008, voters elected a member of Congress with no executive experience. We can’t afford the cost of inexperience any longer, and Iowans get are getting that. He also made the case that we have a leading candidate for President who is running from his record and another who doesn’t have a record. Governor Pawlenty is proud of his record. Iowans got that, too.
But, most importantly, Iowans understand the fact that he turned around one of the most liberal states in America.
As you know Governor Pawlenty transformed the Minnesota Supreme Court. He set a record for gubernatorical vetoes. He took on the unions and successfully reformed their pensions. He took on the teachers unions and successfully passed the nation’s first merit pay system in education. And he refused to increase spending with a Democratic legislature — in defense of the taxpayers — was forced to shut down the government over it and won. Most Americans and many Iowans don’t know this story, but they are finding it out now. This doesn’t make great fodder for cable news but as more Republican primary voters start to tune in to the race, they are finding out that the Governor’s record and message will stand the test a brutal campaign. Other candidates’ records (or lack thereof), and plans for the future (or lack thereof) won’t.
Yes, the national press continue to write a different narrative. But no successful campaign goes untested. We’re weathering our “test” well and here are a few nuggets of proof:
• We just had a record week of straw poll sign-ups.
• According to a 1,000 sample size poll in Iowa this week — we are now in second place — ahead of Romney, behind Bachmann.
• 11 more legislators endorsed us in Florida.
• We launched these two ads in Iowa: http://bit.ly/nfrWVv and http://bit.ly/ploH2I
• Local Iowa press tells the real story: http://bit.ly/o0oc8s
Last, don’t miss CNN’s State of the Union tomorrow airing at 9:00 am EDT with a replay at 12:00 pm EDT. The Governor pre-taped an interview with Candy Crowley yesterday, and you won’twant to miss it. Again, thanks for your continued support and encouragement.
Keep fighting with us,
Nick Ayers
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:16 pm
It would be funny if Romney finished in the top 4
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:16 pm
Nick Ayers states today in a letter to supporters:
We just had a record week of straw poll sign-ups.
According to a 1,000 sample size poll in Iowa this week — we are now in second place — ahead of Romney, behind Bachmann.
11 more legislators endorsed us in Florida.
We launched these two ads in Iowa: http://bit.ly/nfrWVv and http://bit.ly/ploH2I
Local Iowa press tells the real story: http://bit.ly/o0oc8s
Buy tele..BUY!!!
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:17 pm
Sorry…….double posts.
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:22 pm
60 Minutes is in the midst of a Perry investigative report according to Fox news reports. Perry has not agreed to appear on the special.
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:26 pm
It’s probably about all the money the GOV has spent in the last 12 months traveling.
The Pawlenty camp pushed this story to 60 Minutes according to the posters here on RACE42012.
Suckers.
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:30 pm
Romney continues to drop, down to 29.2. Perry up to 32.6
July 23rd, 2011 at 4:54 pm
Guys, this was a Republican-only poll. Rasmussen at least polls the proportionate number of independents. Let’s see where Intrade is in 2-3 months. Perry hasn’t even been vetted. Most people don;t know about his spending and state debt problems, or that he was a democrat and Al Gore afficionado, or that he supports pro-abortion candidates, or that he has been called out for unethical business dealings as governor.
July 23rd, 2011 at 5:16 pm
There are some pretty good newspapers in Texas so I am sure Perry has been vetted locally. Rumors swirl around almost every pol, especially those who seek national office. I don’t buy into gossip and rumor.
July 23rd, 2011 at 5:19 pm
80. Great. Now Romney is no longer the frontrunner.
Hmmm…he sure is a strong contender.
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:08 pm
82.
Another right on the money comment.
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:10 pm
WE have no frontrunner since Huck went out and Jeb won’t go in.
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:11 pm
..but we will after The Palmetto State tells us
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:14 pm
And it will be one of the four in my handle much to Obama’s chagrin.
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:25 pm
Do you guys REALLY pay attention to INTRADE ? As the babe says on the commercial ” You’ve Got to be kidding !” These are the guys that had Don Trump surging. these are the guys that had T Paw surging . It would be relevant if they voted as often as the wagered funny money. After Ames, there will be another surge for …..who ?
Really, Intrade is about as accurate as a Ouija Board
CraigS
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:27 pm
88. Hence the opportunity to make some money…
heh heh
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:29 pm
http://www.facebook.com/timpawlenty#!/photo.php?fbid=10150325638757642&set=a.10150325638652642.402983.7899722641&type=1&theater
The rise of the TPAW NATION!!!
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:41 pm
CraigS,
Then why does your Romney friend MattC have a weekly Intrade update if it is so irrelevant?
July 23rd, 2011 at 6:41 pm
89. Exactly. Market inefficiencies create opportunity.
July 23rd, 2011 at 7:06 pm
TC,
Watch that series come to an abrupt end if Mitt falls much further.
Matt will find a way to link it to Kos/PPP then
July 23rd, 2011 at 7:17 pm
Smack, im going to start calling you Crack….like crack addict, crack smoker, etc. You are nuts. TPAWs numbers just keep sinking. Its over…and Ames will prove that. Get ready. You think you will be able to smack around all day on the 13th? I bet you don’t even show your face unless its to tell us why we must keep donating to TPAW and that he can still win in Iowa and that it is still early.
Here’s something to quote me on. TPAW doesnt take first in Ames….or 2nd….or 3rd. Thats right. He finishes 4th or below. Get ready for a shellacking.
July 23rd, 2011 at 7:24 pm
#7…Matt, sure there are more, but why take the time to restate the obvious.
With the dropping out of Huckabee, the no go of Daniels, and the unexpected “no traction” of Pawlenty, most of us Rombots are just waiting for the “flavor of the month and fan dance” phase to work itself through the voter population so that we can get on with sending Romney to Washington to fix the mess…
July 23rd, 2011 at 8:22 pm
Jerald,
My new nightmare is that by the time it gets to Illinois, my choices are Romney, Bachmann, and/or Perry.
July 23rd, 2011 at 8:26 pm
Matt “MWS”
You and Me both-Same scary nightmare.
July 23rd, 2011 at 8:45 pm
96 – Who would you pick out of those three?
July 23rd, 2011 at 8:48 pm
96 – “new nightmare” – come on now MWS, that’s been your nightmare since 2008.
July 23rd, 2011 at 8:59 pm
looking good there! Unlike MSM’s claim, 66% being satisfied with the current candidates do not make them weak. We do have good people in the race.
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:04 pm
#96….Matt
I’m confident you will begin to warm to Romney.
If he can knock off Big O, I’m sure you will begin to wonder what you were so afraid of
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:05 pm
jaaron,
No, my previous nightmare was Romney, Palin, and Gingrich, but I haven’t had that one in a while.
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:06 pm
#96
By the way Matt, with T-Paw not gaining traction, I am in a bit of a panic mode myself.
Now, Mitt has to win.
I don’t think the other choices will make it past the general, and even if they did, I’m not confident they can clean up the mess…
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:08 pm
Jax,
I honestly don’t know who I’d pick from those three. I don’t trust Mitt. Michele has no accomplishments and isn’t really qualified. Rick is as phony as Mitt, from what I can tell so far.
Here’s to hoping TPaw wins Ames, or barring that, Mitch or Huck reconsiders…….
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:09 pm
Do you seriously hate Romney that much MWS? Or do you just like stirring things up. I can’t imagine that you would despise someone as much as you act like you do Romney over a few comments on abortion over a decade ago.
Who did you support in 2008, if you don’t mind me asking?
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:10 pm
And is TPaw the only one you would support out of the candidates in the field right now? Is there anyone else? If not, I think you may be in for a lot of disappointment,
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:12 pm
Jax,
I don’t hate Romney. I distrust him. There’s a big difference. But I distrust most politicians.
It’s about far more than “a few comments on abortion over a decade ago.” If you really want me to rehash, let me know.
In 2008 I initially supported Brownback, but after Ames (when it was clear he was dead in the water) I went to Huck.
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:14 pm
Jax,
TPaw is the only one currently in the field that I confidently feel can check the Big Three Boxes:
1. Shares my values
2. Is a competent leader
3. Can beat Obama
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:21 pm
107 – Funny, I liked Brownback too before I turned to Huck.
As for TPaw, he has really disappointed me. I look at his campaign, his ads, his speeches/townhalls and nothing impresses me.
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:21 pm
MWS – I meant Romney in general; I disregard Bachmann as a non threat, Perry is something new and I agree a little scary.
As far as my #2; it would probably be a toss-up between Gov. Johnson and Tpaw. I really thought Tpaw would put up more of a fight (he’s just needs a little more polish at the national level). I would be happy with any of those three, but unfortunately it seems that Romney is the only one that actually has a shot.
I would freak if it was Jeb, Perry, or Bachmann.
July 23rd, 2011 at 9:57 pm
Matt “MWS”
jaaron,
No, my previous nightmare was Romney, Palin, and Gingrich, but I haven’t had that one in a while.
===============================================
What was the nightmare?
Screaming in cold sweat,seeing yourself under the lethal,so deadly scope of Arctic RINO Huntress?
Relax,She hunts only RINOS and Libs.
You are not one of them?Right?
July 23rd, 2011 at 10:07 pm
Just for fun, here’s a 2007 Ames thread.
http://race42012.com/2007/08/11/romney-wins-ames-by-record-134/#comments
Teaser quote from yours truly:
July 23rd, 2011 at 11:47 pm
My 88 was for my felow Hucknut’s 86.
Smack’s,
Thanks for screwin’ up the order.
I’d tell you how to prevent that in the future but I’ve been sworn to secrecy by the boss.
July 23rd, 2011 at 11:47 pm
*fellow
July 23rd, 2011 at 11:51 pm
“I hope I’m overly pessimistic, and Mike proves me wrong, but I think some of us in our enthusiasm (either for Huckabee or Romney) or really overblowing the significance of Ames.”
Love it, Matt
July 23rd, 2011 at 11:58 pm
Love the Fair Tax folks for helping us so much.
Converted me. And I think Huck FOREVER, too. He sure was appreciative that day.
I couldn’t vote at Ames but I’m thankful for the ones that did. It launched us.
July 24th, 2011 at 12:02 am
Cain is “borrowing” them this time.
Take a looksee at Herman expaining it here..
http://www.fairtax.org/site/PageServer
July 24th, 2011 at 12:05 am
*explaining (try to watch the Dodger game while typing)
WE JUST TIED IT UP ON A WILD PITCH!
July 24th, 2011 at 9:48 am
If Perry runs:
Rudy’s AND Sarah’s numbers go to him. It’s over!