The political superstate of Minnewisowa (Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa) is back as prime battleground for the 2012 presidential cycle. It behaved true to form in 2008, with all its 27 electoral votes going easily to Barack Obama. But the political landscape has changed notably in all three states since then.
Minnesota has elected a Republican legislature and, for the first time in 20 years, a Democratic governor (but barely). The GOP also picked up a U.S. house seat. A budget dispute has now closed the state government down for three weeks, although a just formulated “deal” will probably bring that to an end in days. It is unclear what the aftermath of this shutdown will be, although the Democratic governor did agree to the basic terms of the Republicans. On the other hand, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar so far does not have a serious opponent.
Wisconsin elected a Republican governor in 2010 and a GOP legislature. Conservatives also picked up two U.S. house seats and a U.S. senate seat. Promised reform was enacted by the Republicans with much controversy, but state government is now considerably more Republican than it was.
Iowa elected a Republican governor, and has lost a U.S. house seat in 2012 which may reduce the Democratic congressional delegation from the state. As in the other two component states of Minnewisowa, urban unemployment remains high and the state’s ethanol production remains controversial.
Minnewisowa now has 26 electoral votes instead of 27 it had before, but with a faltering national economy that has also hit the midwest hard, President Obama’s prospects for the historic turnout that propelled him to victory nationwide and here in 2008 are significantly reduced.
The greatest political energy throughout Minnewisowa has been the reinvigoration of rural and outstate conservative voters. The confrontation with labor unions in Wisconsin has also brought new energy to urban liberals there for the time being, with union members efforts concentrated on recall and retribution votes taking place over the summer. The first of these, an attempt to prevent the re-election of the conservative state supreme court chief justice, fell short.
Many political observers have noted that the unpopularity and controversy of conservative-led austerity measures in all three of these states could likely fade by next years if these measures produced the economic turnaround they are designed to do. Reform Republican governors in Indiana, Ohio, New Jersey, Virginia and Florida,, and Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo in New York, have all seen their poll numbers decline, but they have brought about reduced government spending, lower taxes and restraint of labor union demands which are also expected to pay big dividends by mid-2012.
The components of Minnewisowa will have special circumstances in 2012. Two of the major GOP presidential contenders are from Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann), two of the national figures who emerged from the 2010 national elections are from Wisconsin (Congressman Paul Ryan and Governor Scott Walker), and Iowa remains the first voting state in 2012 with its first-in-the-nation caucus, as well as its symbolic GOP Straw Poll in Ames next month.
More than a year out, similar economic and demographic patterns throughout Minnewisowa signal the “superstate” may be poised for further political change. The presidential campaign, in addition the state legislative and congressional elections here, just as it did in 2000, 2004 and 2008, provide special focus for voters, but this time perhaps with a different result.
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-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site, The Prairie Editor Blog.
July 20th, 2011 at 8:47 am
wow! What happened to the self disclosure and Romney endorsement that was up not 2 minutes ago?
July 20th, 2011 at 9:14 am
Was just about to ask the same question…
July 20th, 2011 at 9:15 am
Good morning my young savages.
How are you all doing this fine morning?
I hope you are all doing fine.
TPAW has 4 events today and 4 tomorrow in Iowa. The crowds for yesterday were disappointing, hopefully more people show up today. I was on the phone here in Ontario for 3 hours listening to my buddy in Iowa talk about what is going on this week. I guess the heat in Iowa is horrible and everyone is drinking gallons of water. The feeling is still one of optimism in the TPAW camp. There is a sense that Bachmann, for whatever reason, is not able to do the work that is needed to win at AMES. I was told last night that Iowa voters who are going to TPAW’s Town Halls are asking why Bachmann does not hold Town Halls in Iowa. These voters are asking the wrong people….but the question is being asked. Bachmann does have “chats” where she will walk among the people and talk with them at their gatherings, but she will not let here events be where the voters walk up to a microphone and ask a question where Michele’s answers can be picked up by the media. Bachmann is avoiding the media in Iowa but it still hasn’t hurt her.
I guess this strategy is working…but it’s pathetic.
On the migraine issue…….
Again, never heard of this problem for Bachmann, and believe me I’ve heard so many stories about the Bachmann’s that it would take me 2 full days to write them all down for you. I’m on the side where I don’t think this is an issue. However, I got an earful of information from my buddy that the Bachmann/migraine issue is not going away any time soon. My buddy says there are too many witnesses to Bachmann’s migraine issue in DC, that more sources are going to come out to describe her office in DC as being open only part time due to her illness.
Even if that is true…would the voters care?
I don’t know.
I have never seen a candidate more unqualified and as nutty as Michele Bachmann, but yet she is doing good in these polls.
Will see.
I will check in tomorrow.
Go get em TPAW!!!
Iowa is TPAW COUNTRY!!!
…ooohhhh…the beer is great in Ontario…..the food is horrible….horrible!!!
July 20th, 2011 at 9:19 am
1, 2 – Kavon is being fitted for his Rombot suit. When he returns his endorsement will be even more powerful.
July 20th, 2011 at 9:37 am
I was in the act of posting a comment when the entire post vanished. Poof! Just like that.
July 20th, 2011 at 9:38 am
I blame Craig for the disappearance of said endorsement.
July 20th, 2011 at 10:15 am
I should have some credit…I was the first to comment…
July 20th, 2011 at 10:38 am
Yes, where is that post by Kavon where he endorses Romney? I had just pressed the submit button with a nice reply, when it disappeared. I thought perhaps Kavon was editing his post, but it has yet to return.
July 20th, 2011 at 10:57 am
I like “Minnowasin” or “Wiscowasota” better…..especially the 2nd one…both have the word cow in them which fits well.
July 20th, 2011 at 8:29 pm
Republicans will completely doom themselves if they primarily focus on states–like Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc.–that saw a strong GOP performance in 2010. It can’t be said enough: 2010 is a million political years away from 2012, and the dyamics at works there are vastly different.
The problem with the strategy is this: realistically, no matter how well Republicans did in 2012, the GOP will almost certainly not win “Minnowasin,” although Iowa could be close. And when you put too much focus on states you can’t win–unless it’s a head fake–you neglect winning states that you can and SHOULD win, like Virginia, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and, if Romney’s the nominee, Nevada.
Republicans did only okay in Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina, yet those are three of the most conservative “swing states,” and the GOP better be hanging onto them before trying for liberal Minnesota, Michigan, or heavily Democratic Pennsylvania.
Michael Bennet hung on to Colorado, miraculously, in 2010. And Ron Johnson did stun Wisconsinites with his win. But the GOP would be dumber than dirt to think that Wisconsin is more winnable than Colorado.