Chris Cillizza sets the odds for winning Ames, one month out:
Check out his reasoning below the fold.
Michele Bachmann (3 to 1): With Romney taking a pass on the poll, the Minnesota congresswoman is the front-runner. Bachmann has three big things going for her: She’s a native Iowan, she’s beloved within social conservative circles, and she is likely to be free to spend as much money as she likes to organize supporters for the straw vote. What we don’t know: Can Bachmann, who announced her candidacy in mid-June, catch up organizationally in a relatively short period of time?
Tim Pawlenty (5 to 1): No candidate needs an Ames win like the former Minnesota governor. His campaign has hit a rough patch over the past month, beginning with a weak debate performance in New Hampshire and continuing through a disappointing fundraising report. Pawlenty needs to show momentum to save his candidacy from becoming Lamar Alexander 2.0. “We view the past as prologue,” said Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant. “The preseason is now ending and the straw poll is an important marker at the start of the campaign, and we are confident that we will do well.” To remain in the race, he must.
Ron Paul (5 to 1): Walking around the Ames fairgrounds four years ago, you would have thought the libertarian congressman from Texas was going to pull a mighty upset. His supporters were loud and seemingly everywhere. Yet he finished a disappointing fifth. This time, Paul is going for broke. He spent more money than any candidate — $31,0000 — on real estate, buying a prime plot right outside where the votes are cast, and his domination of various straw polls this year (albeit on a smaller scale) suggests that he should be taken seriously.
Herman Cain (20 to 1): Cain’s odds would have been better had he not just weathered an Iowa staff meltdown in which his state director and straw-poll coordinator headed for the exits. Still, the former chief executive of Godfather’s Pizza has shown some mojo in Iowa. He took 10 percent in a recent Des Moines Register poll — behind only Romney and Bachmann.
Rick Santorum (25 to 1): The former senator from Pennsylvania opened some eyes this year when he signed on several well-regarded Iowa operatives, including Nick Ryan. Those signings could lay the groundwork for a surprise result at Ames, although Santorum will have to do better than the fourth-place showing of Gary Bauer in 1999 and the third-place finish of then-Sen. Sam Brownback in 2007 — both true-blue social conservatives like Santorum — to make waves.
Rick Perry (30 to 1): Perry hasn’t made up his mind about running, but some of his supporters hope to use Ames to show him how much Iowa support he would have if he does. Although he would be a formidable candidate — at the straw poll and in Iowa generally — it’s tough to gauge how many people would be willing to vote for someone who, at the moment, is on the sidelines.
Thad McCotter (100 to 1): McCotter, a little-known Michigan congressman, caused a bit of a stir when a representative of his campaign initially refused to identify who he was working for in the plot purchase for Ames. That’s probably the most attention his campaign will receive in the straw poll.
July 11th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
Not to be a nerd, Cillizza needs to learn about odds. If you add all these together, you get WAY less than 100%
July 11th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
If Ron Paul can win the straw poll….i’m in with him. Go for broke. Before 9/11 EVERY republican was a ron paul republican.
July 11th, 2011 at 12:49 pm
If McCotter wins, everyone needs to drop out.
Including Romney.
July 11th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
watered,
“Before 9/11 EVERY republican was a ron paul republican.”
That’s like saying before the Reformation every Christian was Greek Orthodox.
July 11th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
Thank God Bachmann’s rise didn’t start 2 weeks from now.
If either Pawlenty or Bachmann finish 3rd (and with Paul in the mix, that’s a good possibility) I’d say they’re pretty much toast. Pawlenty would probably drop out, Bachmann would probably soldier on until everyone ignored her, because I don’t think she’s in it to win it anyway.
July 11th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
“Before 9/11 EVERY republican was a ron paul republican.”
Not me — and I’m far more libertarian than most here.
July 11th, 2011 at 12:57 pm
Has the committee decided yet on whether to include Romney’s name any way?
If they do, what are his odds?
July 11th, 2011 at 1:03 pm
Matt “MWS”
“spokesman Alex Conant. “The preseason is now ending and the straw poll is an important marker at the start of the campaign, and we are confident that we will do well.”
There is a spring in our step today.
The needle is moving in the right direction.
We got the buses lined up and paid for.
We got positive responses back in our call backs off our Ames database.
TPAW will hit a very good number at AMES.
Good luck Bachmann….ya going to need it.
July 11th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
7. Final list will be decided on July 23.
July 11th, 2011 at 1:08 pm
Romney’s odds at Ames are as nonexistent as Bachmann’s record of accomplishments. (Heh.) Everyone thought that Giuliani, Thompson, and McCain would still get some good support at Ames even though they decided not to compete, and they all came in under 2% IIRC. Expect the same for Romney.
July 11th, 2011 at 1:19 pm
He didn’t include Palin. What a moron! (TIC)
July 11th, 2011 at 1:29 pm
5 – She’s not in it to win it. She is in it because God (AKA her husband) told her to be in it.
July 11th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
7 – They better include Romney’s name. They included McCain’s in 2007.
July 11th, 2011 at 1:52 pm
11
What does TIC stand for?
If Palin actually makes a move or two… or announces before the end of July, she’ll be included. I doubt she will, and so does Cillizza. But I do wonder what her odds would be if she decided to jump in at the last second and expect Iowans to all jump on her bandwagon. It would be entertaining no matter what happened.
10
Expectations game?? C’mon now, Matt. You and I both know he’ll bring in a solid 3%!!!
July 11th, 2011 at 1:56 pm
11 – TIC = Tongue In Cheek (meaning I am not being serious)
July 11th, 2011 at 1:57 pm
Jax,
How many town hall meetings and rally’s has Romney held in Iowa this time around compared to McCain’s before he dropped out of the straw poll?
From McCain follows rival in skipping Iowa straw poll
July 11th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
16 – Why does that matter? He has held some.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:07 pm
I am a Romney supporter and dont blame him for not participating. I also dont blame Iowa for not putting him on the straw poll; but if it was me I would put him on it just to burn him. In the motive of self interest I would put him on, knowing he would get 2% for not being there and sepending money like everyone else. For Iowa this is money and air time. We will eventually see if it matters at all in the final election.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:13 pm
From what I understand there is a registration fee involved. Candidates have a deadline for registering. I don’t think it’s a question of whether the committee includes someone. I assume if you don’t pay the registration fee then you are not included.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
15
10-4 (meaning Copy That (meaning that I got your meaning))
July 11th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
19 – That make sense.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
I actually put TPaw and Bachmann at the same odds as one another, and Paul slightly below.
Remember, Paul’s supporters are good at gaming straw polls and stuff, but in THIS straw poll, you have to be a registered Iowa voter.
I could see him winning it, however. It will depend on how much enthusiasm there is for Bachmann and TPaw.
I just can’t wait.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:17 pm
19
They can still put someone’s name on there. But if I understand it correctly, candidates buy their supporters tickets to get in so that all/most of them can vote for them. Meaning that if Mitt or Perry or Palin get included on the list, their supporters will have to be die-hard enough to all pay their own way… something others’ supporters won’t have to do.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
I’m still not sure Perry is on the ballot. I know his supporters “tried” to get him on there…but the “rules” clearly state no names can be added after June.
The one caveat is, this is a fundraiser for the Iowa GOP, and I suppose the rules could be ‘bent’ for the right amount of cash.
Palin is bypassing Ames as it is meaningless in the larger picture of things, but may have some imagined importance to struggling campaigns hoping for a miracle.
I plan on voting for McCotter. I hope I’m not his only vote…although that might be cool, especially if he let’s me jam with him.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:20 pm
After further research it looks like they even included Rudy in the straw poll so although I am no where near a Romney supporter I agree his name should be included. Sorry for using KOS but it was the easiest found site that listed the results.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:21 pm
Tele
What appeals to you about McCotter? Just that he hates Mitt? Because he plays guitar?
Have you read anything about his love for Big Labor?
July 11th, 2011 at 2:22 pm
24
Hey Tele, am I right? (see 23)
Would they include a name like Mitt’s hoping that some of his followers buy their own tickets in, making it worthwhile… also showing a low vote for him and thereby punishing those candidates who choose not to attend and pitch in?
July 11th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
27. I don’t think so.
The campaigns have to pay for real estate and a place n the ballot.
Bidding starts at $15,000 for prime real estate and place on the ballot. Ron Paul won this year with a bid of $31,000 and he will be right by the doors and his name will be first on the ballot.
Pawlenty was last with a bid of $15,000 and will be out back by the parking lot and his name will be dead last on the ballot.
It was my understanding Mitt wasn’t going to play this time. Didn’t he win it in ’08? What did that do for him besides cost him a small fortune?
I will be really surprised if Perry is on the ballot. If he is, I think it will further diminish the credibility of this event…which is really just a money making scam by the Iowa GOP.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
26. Pretty much all those reasons.
I’m just curious as to why he’s doing this. He’s obviously not a serious candidate, although he paid $18,000 for the second best spot in the grounds.
He’s a funny guy and a musician though, and if I drive down to Ames for the day I may as well have some fun, and I’m too old for the bounce houses and rock climbing walls.
I’m sure the Pawlenty people will be half asleep, the Ron Paul people are just annoying all the time, and I might not be able to control myself if I see that phony poseur Bachmann and her snake handlers and holy rollers.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:46 pm
28
Got it. So how did McCain and Rudy get some votes? Are they all write in votes??
July 11th, 2011 at 2:47 pm
You have to pay to vote at Ames? Why have we ever paid any attention to this poll?
July 11th, 2011 at 2:55 pm
30. I don’t know. Maybe it has changed. There was no way to write in votes the last time I was there, which admittedly was a couple election cycles ago. I was supporting Buchanan then.
31. It’s only $35 and the campaigns will pay your way in. I’m still thinking about trying to get Pawlenty to buy my way in. I wonder if he has any buses lined up in NW Iowa?
July 11th, 2011 at 3:08 pm
#30 (#28, et al) — purchasing real estate guarantees you a spot on the ballot. Then the Iowa GOP can decide who to put on or who to exclude from there. Nobody directly pays to get on the ballot. Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson were all on the ballot (not write-ins) in 2007 and did not pay anything.
July 11th, 2011 at 3:14 pm
Thanks Matt. I must have misunderstood the talk of rules and the June cut off.
July 11th, 2011 at 3:19 pm
Let’s break it down.
I know Bachmann does not = Romney
..and I know Pawlenty does not = Huckabee..
..but just stay with me on this…ok.
The Poll done 6 days before the Ames Straw Poll in 2007 had Romney at 26%..Huck at 8%
We just had a poll released last night that covered June 26-30.
It had Bachmann at 25%…Pawlenty 9%
The final 2007 Ames Tally was about Romney 4,500
Huck 2,500
Now…….Is Bachmann organization as ready as Romney was in 2007? Not even close..and she won’t be by August 13th.
Is TPAW’s organization more ready for AMES today then Hucks was in 2007?……Hell yes.
Just ask Sarah Huckabee…ask anybody.
So if we take that logic to it’s final conclusion.. you can see right off the bat the count will be closer then 4,500 to 2,500.
Now that I got your attention…let me take it a step further………TPAW will be in double digits by August 6th..a week before this years Ames Straw Poll.
You see where I’m going with this?
Now add in this to the mix………..Cain & Santorum will be running interference for TPAW at AMES.
Add it all up………TPAW victory.
SMACKDADDY’S ODDS:
TPAW = 1 to 100
Bachmann = 1000 to 1
Paul = 10000 to 1
Cain = 50000 to 1
Santorum = 50000 to 1
Iowa is TPAW Country!!
July 11th, 2011 at 3:40 pm
Smack… you’re not much of a math major, are you??
You’re predicting a TPAW victory, and the best odds you give anybody are 1 in a 100??
lol.
“So you’re saying there’s a chance. I read you.”
“What was all that one in a million talk!?”
July 11th, 2011 at 3:46 pm
Mark in PA,
1 to 100 is 100 times better then even odds.
100 to 1 is 100 times worse then even odds.
So I consider TPAW the heavy favorite.
You must not gamble much.
BTW, I have heard Bachmann’s reponse in Iowa just now to TPAW’s attack on having zero Executive Experience…..pretty weak stuff Michele. You are going to have to do a better job answering the question of zero accomplishments in the US House.
TPAW hit Pay Dirt!
July 11th, 2011 at 4:30 pm
I’m confused. I don’t understand how a Representative without leadership experience is doing so well in any type of poll for a GOP presidential match? After Obama I would think we’d want more than words??? Sure Bachmann has a conservative voting record much like Obama’s liberal voting record.
I like Michele but what does she offer as leadership experience on her resume that tops a sitting president/leader of the free world to convince people to oust Obama by voting for her? How is she going to get her message out if she continues to refuse to take questions?
July 11th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
35 – That makes no sense at all.
July 11th, 2011 at 8:59 pm
I heard Romney mention earlier that his campaign this time around was going to be leaner and more streamlined. As I understand it, that is why he is not going to spend any money participating in straw polls that have no affect on the actual primary. It is, as I understand it, a test of your organization. As such I can see why those candidates who are running for the first time need to participate, and I also understand why Romney is not. His philosophy of fiscal responsibility is showing its face in the campaign. No wasted money. Every dollar spent must show a tangible return. Makes me more encouraged than ever that Mitt Romney is the best candidate, as well as has the makings for being the best president in this campaign.
Pawlenty, at this time, is my 2nd choice. Like Romney he has approached this race with hard work, has done the right things to get his organization in place. I’m rooting for T-Paw to win at Ames.
#1 – a question: you said that if you add those all up they come to way less than 100. What are you adding? I don’t know anything about setting odds.
July 11th, 2011 at 10:36 pm
@Noelle:
The first commenter is mistaking an “odd” with a “percentage”. Odds do not have to equal 100%. It is based on the chance an odds maker gives a person to win – what the odds maker is willing to pay out in case that person wins. So, if McCotter wins, a person betting $1 on McCotter will win $100 in the payout.
In racing (horses, dogs, etc) odds will adjust as people start betting on a race. This is because the house always wins – the adjustment is if everyone is betting on McCotter, they may know something the track doesn’t and they don’t want to pay out 100-1 to all bettors, just in case.
July 12th, 2011 at 7:54 am
37
Oh – Got it. Thanks. No, I don’t gamble much aside from a friendly Texas Hold ‘em tournament or the occasional handshake bet.
So… good luck with your odds. I sincerely hope TPAW wins this thing, but I wouldn’t bet on it right now.
July 14th, 2011 at 8:44 pm
fat chance anybody beating Ron Paul, he will win by 10% over Bachmann.