When I started doing this series of posts, back in March, it was to explore a popular meme of the moment, which was being phased as “Is Romney Collapsing?”
How times change.
Although Mitt Romney did not benefit immediately upon Mike Huckabee’s withdrawal in early May (he was the only candidate to drop slightly in May), he definitely took off in June:
This chart is based on calculating a rolling average of the five most recent generally-recognized polls. Candidates who are not consistently included in major polls are not included in the chart. The poll below shows the same data, but the format is to show only the average as of the final poll of each month.
Romney’s June surge looks even more impressive in the second chart, since it doesn’t include the little month-end downturn we see in the first. That was caused by an interesting phenomenon — Romney hit 30 in a couple of polls in the middle of the month, the first time he had done so in more than a year. When you’re consistently polling in the thirties you might start being considered a real frontrunner, as opposed to just primus inter pares. However the next two polls didn’t just bring him down a bit, they dropped him into the teens — still #1, but definitely in PIP territory. The question to be settled in July, then, is which were the anomalies — the thirties or the teens? (The safe guess is both).
A couple questions I raised with last month’s posting were answered to varying degrees. I asked about both Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich whether their sharp rises in May were just dead cat bounces. In Gingrich’s case, the answer is a resounding ‘Yes!’ — in June he lost all his May gains and more, continuing his trendline from Fall 201o. For Palin, the answer is more of a ‘Maybe’ — she lost about half her May gain in June.
Other notes:
July 7th, 2011 at 2:21 pm
Palin’s recent downturn is due to Bachmann jumping in and the continued narrative that she is not going to run. That is all going to change.
Are you guys going to be ready for this?
http://iowans4palin.blogspot.com/2011/07/singleton-on-palin-she-can-beat-obama.html
“I believe she will run, in fact, it is a certainty she will,” Singleton told the Iowa Independent Wednesday, an idea he bases on his own opinion and analysis of her political movements so far compared to high profile Republicans who have declared candidacy. “Now, this is my opinion, so is there a chance I could be wrong? Well, sure. But based on what I have seen publicly, I just find it inconceivable she would sit 2012 out.”
My good friend Peter is nobody’s fool. I have a sneaking suspicion he knows more than he let’s on…
As inspirational as his dedication is, there are many others doing the same thing, from Texas, Ohio, Nebraska…no other candidate has this level of dedication and support. People are literally putting everything else on hold while they work to see her get elected.
We have quite an organization now in place. It dwarfs anything Bachmann has, for example. T-Paw may have more paid “talent’… I don’t know that he has more volunteers in all corners of the state…volunteers that are needed to get people out on a cold, snowy February night to go caucus.
Just a heads up for you.
July 7th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
Wow! Cain has fallen so far that he is starting to go backwards.
July 7th, 2011 at 2:28 pm
One thing to note is that in my opinion these polls are still run in a pretty sloppy way. There is no accountability for the results. The idea is to get a number out there and one that will attract some attention, not to get it accurate. When we get closer to the time when the numbers actually are supposed to be predicting votes, the polls will start to get tighter. Right now the numbers are all over the map, and I think that has as much to do with sloppy polling than anything else.
July 7th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
1 – Can’t wait. When is it going to happen?
July 7th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
teledude Says:
July 7th, 2011 at 2:21 pm
Palin’s recent downturn is due to Bachmann jumping in and the continued narrative that she is not going to run. That is all going to change.
Are you guys going to be ready for this?
http://iowans4palin.blogspot.com/2011/07/singleton-on-palin-she-can-beat-obama.html
“I believe she will run,
Bachmann vs Palin, would love to see it. It will make it even easier for Romney to take Iowa. And ZPaw will become even a smaller footnote.
================================================================
I hope so, Cat fight
July 7th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
Cain is in blue, Bachmann in green is going up. Cain isn’t going backwards but it does look that way!
July 7th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
Jaxemer11 Says:
July 7th, 2011 at 2:28 pm
One thing to note is that in my opinion these polls are still run in a pretty sloppy way. There is no accountability for the results. The idea is to get a number out there and one that will attract some attention
======================================================
Your partially right, but using an Average gives you a good picture of where we are.
Of course, January is a long ways off, lots can happen.
July 7th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
Some of those polls did not have Palin in them. The polling does seem to indicate that Romney picks up a few points when Palin is not polled so his numbers are over-inflated. Also some of the polls that have Romney in the teens also have Guliani in it. Clearly Bachmann also benefits when Palin is not polled so her numbers are also inflated. That’s one reason why these averages don’t mean much. You’re mixing apples with oranges and trying to sell the apples as oranges.
July 7th, 2011 at 2:41 pm
There will be no ‘cat fight’.
Bachmann will not survive even a mild form of ‘the Palin treatment’ as she really is all the things they falsely said about Governor Palin.
The mainstream media may continue to ignore her negatives and keep building her up in an attempt to block Palin, as they have been, but I doubt that will be very successful in the long run.
The truth will out.
July 7th, 2011 at 2:42 pm
Bob,
It’s great to see you here.
July 7th, 2011 at 2:46 pm
Bob must have been waiting…waiting…and waiting for that zzzpaw surge to happen.
July 7th, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Franklin Says:
July 7th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
Some of those polls did not have Palin in them. The polling does seem to indicate that Romney picks up a few points when Palin is not polled so his numbers are over-inflated. Also some of the polls that have Romney in the teens also have Guliani in it. Clearly Bachmann also benefits when Palin is not polled so her numbers are also inflated. That’s one reason why these averages don’t mean much. You’re mixing apples with oranges and trying to sell the apples as oranges.
=======================================================================
Congrats!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You made a logical argument that has merit. If you continue this, you will get more respect.
July 7th, 2011 at 2:48 pm
1. Reality just ain’t your thing, is it now?
July 7th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
“Some of those polls did not have Palin in them.”
Wrong — she was included in every poll.
Matt: Just took a short breather — things have been slow.
July 7th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
A Smackdaddy Special Message:
Dear Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul:
Objects in the mirror maybe closer then they appear.
July 7th, 2011 at 2:51 pm
“Bob must have been waiting…waiting…and waiting for that zzzpaw surge to happen.”
What makes you think that?
July 7th, 2011 at 2:54 pm
The dude abides.
keepin’ it real since the spring of 2011…
July 7th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
1
Really? Can you give us a date, then, so we can “write it down”?
July 7th, 2011 at 2:59 pm
Smack1968 Says:
July 7th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
A Smackdaddy Special Message:
Dear Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul:
Objects in the mirror maybe closer then they appear.
===============================================
Sorry, but ZPaw will have a ways to pass up Ron Paul, as for the rest, if you can’t pass Cain and Gingrich, you might as well drop out.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
SMACK ALERT!!!!
Tim Pawlenty Press Conference at Dubuque Regional Airport in Dubuque, Iowa at 5:00pm.
TPAW will answer more questions from the local Iowa Press with this one Press Conference, then Bachmann will answer all local press questions for the next 7 months.
Substance vs. Flash
July 7th, 2011 at 3:07 pm
18. no
July 7th, 2011 at 3:14 pm
Smack1968 Says:
July 7th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
SMACK ALERT!!!!
Tim Pawlenty Press Conference at Dubuque Regional Airport in Dubuque, Iowa at 5:00pm.
TPAW will answer more questions from the local Iowa Press with this one Press Conference, then Bachmann will answer all local press questions for the next 7 months.
Substance vs. Flash
=====================================================
Now, the big question is will there be more members of the press there than Iowa supporters.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:16 pm
Yes…of course. It’s a Press Conference…not a rally.
TPAW just finished up on a Facebook Town hall about an hour ago.
The Iowa Press is not liking how the Bachmann camp is treating them…so TPAW is stepping in and taking advantage.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:17 pm
16:
Hope everything is okay. Just haven’t heard much from you lately.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:20 pm
I think he means more than all the supporters T-Paw has in the state.
It will be close.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
teledude,
It’s a pity that even my “Brother from another Mother” teledude, falls into the group think here at RACE42012 when it comes to TPAW’s true political strength in Iowa.
August 13th….MISSION…….VICTORY AT AMES!
July 7th, 2011 at 3:29 pm
LOL – I don’t know – I found it a timely and humorous stinger from tele. We are all prone to stick them in once in a while – even with those we respect more.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:31 pm
I watched the TPaw townhall. I am sure they have a well-thought out strategy but I don’t understand running a general election campaign. He did not mention his rivals at all. He made oblique references to having an actual record, etc but you were left to draw your own conclusions.
I am beginning to think his goal is not to win the nomination, but to be the also-ran.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:33 pm
Remaining candidates 2 weeks after Ames:
Romney
Paul
Bachmann (she will stay until after Super Tuesday regardless of how well she does, she’s crazy like that)
Perry (I give him a 60% chance to run)
Pawlenty (I expect him to place top 2 at Ames)
Gingrich (he will not drop out until after FL probably, maybe even later)
Huntsman
Remaining candidates after IA caucus:
Romney
Paul
Bachmann
Perry
Gingrich
Huntsman
* I give Palin zero chance of running. Not gonna happen, folks. Sadly.
Rudy is not running either.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:39 pm
PabloZed,
Bachmann’s UNFAVS will rise on their own. TPAW is drawing a contrast to Bachmann…everybody knows who he is talking about.
Results not Rhetoric.
Substance over Flash.
TPAW can talk about Lady Gaga….Bachmann doesn’t know who she is……..in other words….
..Real World connections/Relationships/curosity
vs.
God told me to be a Tax Attorney babble.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:39 pm
Massachusetts Conservative Says:
July 7th, 2011 at 3:33 pm
Remaining candidates 2 weeks after Ames:
Romney
Paul
Bachmann (she will stay until after Super Tuesday regardless of how well she does, she’s crazy like that)
Perry (I give him a 60% chance to run)
Pawlenty (I expect him to place top 2 at Ames)
Gingrich (he will not drop out until after FL probably, maybe even later)
Huntsman
==================================================================
Perry will not run, chances he is going to run is less than 20%
Bachmann will do in Iowa, but will flame out latter.
Huntsman sticks around, but will not invited to debates because his numbers will be too low.
Pawlenty doesn’t make it to January.
Prediction in Ames.
1. Bachmann
2. Paul.
3. ZPaw.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:41 pm
Massachusetts Conservative,
You don’t think Cain will be around 2 weeks after AMES?
July 7th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Smack1968 Says:
July 7th, 2011 at 3:41 pm
Massachusetts Conservative,
You don’t think Cain will be around 2 weeks after AMES?
========================================================
He is the walking dead… He is gone now.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
31
Huntsman will be invited to debates regardless of his numbers.
This is because he is
(1) A media pet candidate
(2) Mormon (they will ask scripture questions in the debates)
July 7th, 2011 at 3:48 pm
32
Possibly. I’d say it’s slightly more likely he drops out by then than not.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:48 pm
Someone should make an Ames prediction thread, should be interesting.
July 7th, 2011 at 3:57 pm
Massachusetts Conservative,
I’m not ready to make my full slate of predictions when it come to AMES.
I will have TPAW first……I have given many reason why.
But I’m not ready to go 2-6.
I want to see if the Bachmann organization gets it’s act together. I want to see if there is anything special that the Santorum camp has planned….we seem them alot in Urbandale…they are very active in Urbandale and the Central Catholic Corridor of Iowa. Cain…well…he is in deep trouble. Paul is very hard for me personally to evaluate when I’m in Iowa. The Paul camp runs in a different vein then the TPAW camp.
Bachmann has a lot of work to do…..if Ames was held today it would be Bachmann no better then 3rd place.
July 7th, 2011 at 4:04 pm
I think it could be VERY close between Bachmann, Pawlenty, and Paul. VERY close.
I can’t wait till August!
July 7th, 2011 at 4:04 pm
I love that this whole thread debates “who’s polling second to”…MITT!
July 7th, 2011 at 4:09 pm
Massachusetts Conservative,
oooopes..I forgot to include the Palin organization.
I have not seen them.
I know they have not made any attempt to contact any of the EVAN political tribes in Iowa.
Will any of them show up at AMES?
Maybe….but I have been to Iowa 6 times..and will going for the 7th time this Saturday and I haven’t run into any Palin people………no supporters.
Once I see Teledude at AMES on August 13th he will be the first Iowan Palin supporter I have met.
July 7th, 2011 at 4:12 pm
“Someone should make an Ames prediction thread …”
Why? The winner will be whoever buys the most tickets.
July 7th, 2011 at 4:14 pm
We be hidin’ in da weeds.
Sneaky like.
July 7th, 2011 at 4:15 pm
Ricardo (39): “I love that this whole thread debates “who’s polling second to”…MITT!”
Really? Please point out some examples.
July 7th, 2011 at 4:16 pm
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/58517.html
Surprising no one, the commission organized by Walter Mondale said Thursday that tax increases are the way to solve the Minnesota budget impasse that has shut down the state government for a week.
Mondale’s bipartisan group of six took only two days to recommend a 4 percent, across-the-board income tax hike on all Minnesotans, an increase in the cigarette tax by $1.29 per pack and a boost in the alcohol tax. Over time, they also want fewer items to be exempt from the sales tax.
Thank you Mondale!!!!!!!!
This is what Tim Pawlenty fought against for 4 years!!!
Brrawwwhhhaaaaaawwwwwwhaaaaa!!!!!
Thank you for drawing the contrast between the liberal agenda in Minnesota vs. TPAW.
This is why TPAW is bragging about the Shutdown in Minnesota under his Governership in his TV ADS.
The Liberals in Minnesota are LUNATICS!!!!!!
What a beautiful day…THANK YOU WALTER MONDALE!!!!!!!
July 7th, 2011 at 4:18 pm
“boost in the alcohol tax.’
SMACKDADDY is making a run to the liquor store……………………I will be right back.
LIBERAL LUNATICS!!!!
July 7th, 2011 at 4:21 pm
What happened to the anti-Romney campaign from TPAw Smack? I thought he would be talking ObamneyCare all the time? What changed?
July 7th, 2011 at 4:23 pm
46
Romney left Ames and Bachmann is surging.
July 7th, 2011 at 4:25 pm
They should call the income tax a “Residential Fee” and the cigarette tax a “User Fee” and the TPaw will throw his full support behind the plan.
July 7th, 2011 at 4:30 pm
Smack became too singular minded re: AMES after the disastrous debate for TYAWN.
I’m sure he’ll ratchet up the anti-romney rhetoric if by some chance his candidate doesn’t tank the AMES poll.
I’m just trying to get a feel for Smack as to how his tune would change if his candiate was to fall off after AMES and drop out. Which 2nd tier candidate would he jump on with then? Or would he be prepared to jump on w/ Romney?
Same w/ Tele if Palin comes out and says she will not be running.
July 7th, 2011 at 4:32 pm
49
Smack said he’d side with Mitt over Bachmann if it came to that.
July 7th, 2011 at 4:34 pm
The trailer is out!
Take a minute and watch…this is some pretty good stuff right here
http://www.breitbart.tv/exclusive-the-undefeated-trailer/
Game changer.
It is just starting.
You guys just don’t “get’ an unconventional campaign…because you’ve never seen anything like this before.
July 7th, 2011 at 4:47 pm
Ben,
I would support Mitt Romney over Michele Bachmann and it’s not even close.
As for my attacks on Mitt….they will resume in time.
But AMES is where the game is at for the TPAWNERS at this time.
TPAW will win at AMES.
Then watch out!
July 7th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
52 – I wasn’t talking about your lame attacks, I’m talking about the ones that you said would be coming out of the TPaw camp 24/7. What happened to those?
July 7th, 2011 at 5:02 pm
53#
TPAW attacked Romneycare in Clear Lake IA yesterday.
Just because it doesn’t make it on Mitt Romney Central does not mean it didn’t happen.
TPAW is doing his thing in Iowa, while Mitt sips Tea with all the old money blue bloods in London.
July 7th, 2011 at 5:21 pm
TPAW’s Townhall had over 150 people today…plus many who were following on Facebook.
TPAW answered questions on budget, immigration, Pro-Life issues and others.
TPAW has spent more time in front of the people of Iowa in the last 2 days then Bachmann has done in Iowa…well….ever.
People are starting to notice……newspapers…online Conservative reads are now discussing the differences between the two candidates in their ability to answer questions.
The race is now on…..can you keep up Bachmann?
hehehhehehheheheeee
TPAW Press conference going on right now in Iowa.
July 7th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
54 – Well, TPaw’s “thing” doesn’t seem to be working that well, so I wouldn’t get too excited about that.
July 7th, 2011 at 5:29 pm
55 – “People are starting to notice……newspapers…online Conservative reads are now discussing the differences between the two candidates in their ability to answer questions.”
Care to share some links? You have a habit of creating stories out of thin air. It would be nice to see some evidence of this stuff every now and then.
July 7th, 2011 at 5:43 pm
Jax,
All I do is give you good information…provide links…inside scoops (Sarah Huckabee was going to be in TPAW’s camp 3 weeks ago…that kind of thing)
There is an article on “The Iowa Republican” about how a Mayor was very unimpressed with Michele’s visit to his town because she would not take any questions from anybody….go ahead…look it up…more is out there..more is coming.
The reality on the ground in Iowa is a lot different then what you and many others think it is.
Thats is why you should thank Smackdaddy for all I do for you…and not be so pissy.
But you a very young chap, so I won’t go off on you.
July 7th, 2011 at 5:55 pm
Smack–thanks for your on-the-ground reports, insight, and scoop from Iowa! It makes this site far more interesting–keep up the good work.
July 7th, 2011 at 6:03 pm
58 – Yet, there are still no links. I am a little skeptical of this anti-Bachmann shift you are touting … if only because you have been touting it for months and she has only gone up in the polls.
July 7th, 2011 at 6:11 pm
An article re Bachmann vs Pawlenty
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/a-reversal-of-fortunes-bachmann-and-pawlenty/2011/03/29/gIQAXCbr1H_blog.html
July 7th, 2011 at 6:13 pm
#51.
I watched it. No change. No Game.
July 7th, 2011 at 8:38 pm
Jax,
I appreciate Smack’s little tidbits of information. I did a quick Google search and here’s the link to one of the articles that I think Smack was talking about earlier this week and a brief quote from it:
Maybe Smack doesn’t know how to link to stories and put them in the blockquote. I had some people give me tips and also did some Google searching to learn how to do that type of stuff.