June 29, 2011

Poll Watch: Suffolk University Horse Race New Hampshire Poll

Suffolk University has released their latest New Hampshire Poll. They polled 400 New Hampshire residents who claimed to be at least 50/50 likely to vote in the upcoming Presidential primary.  Here are the top lines. Here are the crosstabs.

Three of their questions were as follows:

  1. If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were held today … for whom will you vote or toward whom would you LEAN at this time?
  2. If your first choice for the Republican Presidential nominee dropped out of the race, who would you vote for instead, for whom will you vote or toward whom would you LEAN at this time?
  3. Despite who you’re personally voting for, who do you expect the next president will be – Barack Obama or one of the Republican candidates?

Here are the results:

(Horse Race) 1st Choice 2nd Choice President
Obama N/A N/A 24
Romney 36 14 27
Bachmann 11 12 7
Paul 8 4 2
Giuliani 5 6 1
Huntsman 4 3 0
Palin 4 5 2
Cain 2 2 0
Gingrich 2 3 1
Perry 2 2 1
Pawlenty 2 6 1
Pataki 1 0 -
Santorum 1 4 2
Bolton 0 - 0
DeMint 0 - -
Johnson - 1 -
Karger - - -
Moore - - -
Roemer - - 0
Undecided 21 38 34

Here are a couple more interesting horse race type of questions:

Whom do you trust the most?

Romney 27
Bachmann 9
Paul 9
Giuliani 6
Hunstman 4
Palin 4
Santorum 3
Cain 2
Gingrich 2
Pawlenty 2
Bolton 1
Perry 0
DeMint -
Johnson -
Karger -
Moore -
Pataki -
Roemer -
Undecided 33

Whom do you trust the least?

Gingrich 19
Palin 17
Romney 10
Paul 6
Bachmann 2
Hunstman 2
Bolton 1
Cain 1
Giuliani 1
Johnson 1
Santorum 1
DeMint 0
Pataki 0
Perry 0
Pawlenty 0
Roemer 0
Karger -
Moore -
Undecided 38

And finally one more series of questions:

Do you think that the near-universal health care bill passed by Democrats last year should be repealed, modified or left alone?

Repealed 53
Modified 27
Left Alone 13
Undecided 7

Mitt Romney has changed his position on several social issues. Do those changes disqualify him from getting your vote?

Yes 24
No 69
Undecided 8

Thinking about Mitt Romney, does his involvement in helping to pass Massachusetts’s universal health care law make you more likely to vote for him, less likely, or does it not affect your decision?

More Likely 10
Less Likely 26
No Effect 64
Undecided 4

 

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96 Responses to “Poll Watch: Suffolk University Horse Race New Hampshire Poll”

  1. nate w Says:

    Palin should leverage her (4%) 7th place finish in NH to propel her into South Carolina.

  2. hamaca Says:

    74% say Romney’s involvement with RomneyCare has no effect or makes them more likely to support Mitt.

  3. thunder (Romney/Huckabee 2012) Says:

    Even if you add the undecided and Second Place Backmann, Romney still leads. New Hampshire is looking solid for Romney.

  4. Jaxemer11 Says:

    What are the “several social issues” that Romney has changed his position on?

  5. Jaxemer11 Says:

    Looks like Mitt the untrustworthy “charlatan” doesn’t exist in New Hampshire (where they know him pretty well).

  6. Jaxemer11 Says:

    2 – Don’t tell Adam X. He will think that means RomneyCare is a killer for Romney.

  7. hamaca Says:

    4. 69% know the question was bogus.

  8. Jaxemer11 Says:

    Unless there ends up being a head- to-head matchup, this looks very good for Romney. 35% is a winning number with multiple candidates. Combine his first and seconds and he gets to an unbeatable 50%.

  9. hamaca Says:

    6. Or that these people just haven’t had it explained to them properly.

  10. Metro Says:

    They found 8 of 500 likely voters who feel that Ron Paul is more likely to be President than Obama or anyone else? Yikes.

  11. Jeff Fuller Says:

    #4 . . . haven’t you heard of the power of “conventional wisdom?” If it’s said often enough then it becomes truth!!!! BTW . . . I believe “several” generally refers to 7 or more. It’s definitely more than “a few” which is usually defined as 3-6 I believe.

  12. Jeff Fuller Says:

    Mitt got 36% of the 79% that actually chose a candidate (i.e. not the 21% that were undecided). On a real election day “undecideds” generally stay home, so this would represent 46% total vote for Mitt. I think that’s enough to win NH, no?

  13. GetReal Says:

    So two vaguely anti-Mitt questions (one of them misrepresenting the facts) and none for any other candidates…was this a push poll?

  14. Jeff Fuller Says:

    quirky fact from this poll. More people thought Rick Santorum would be the next president than chose him in the horserace portion. Granted, it’s only 2% and 1% respectively, but that’s pretty odd IMO.

  15. Jaxemer11 Says:

    12 – Good point

  16. Jonathan Says:

    Romney’s big problem in New Hampshire is managing expecations. The winner in Iowa always gets a bounce going into New Hampshire (Huckabee went from nothing to 3rd place). If they can leverage that into a strong 2nd place showing, then the media will report that as a “win” for them and a “loss” for the winer, presumably Romney. If I were in the Romney campaign, I’d be downplaying expectations in New Hampshire so that he doesn’t need a massive victory in order to be declared the winner.

  17. Jaxemer11 Says:

    14 – Probably a rounding error.

  18. Jaxemer11 Says:

    16 – You’re right. Although I think the early states are given more credit than they deserve. The race usually comes down to who wins on Super Tuesday, which is usually the candidate with the best name recognition early on. Most people don’t follow politics like we do, so they won’t even know anything about half these candidates until right before the elections anyways.

  19. nate w Says:

    16 – 1st place is usually good enough to be declared winner. There is no reasonable way for him to manage expectations. You can’t poll double digits ahead of everybody then pretend to expect 2nd place.

  20. marK Says:

    Jon.16

    Yup. You hit the nail on the head. Expectations is everything. Look what’s happening to Pawlenty in Iowa right now.

  21. mcon Says:

    Hmm 1st choice for Mitt and 2nd choice for Mitt together = 50%. Lets keep that rolling along.

  22. Jonathan Says:

    #18:

    The last primary season, more specifically the Giuliani campaign, proved that winning the nomination requires winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. Momentum is hugely important (no doubt more than it should be) during the primaries and it’s almost impossible for a candidate to convince voters that you’re a winner after you’ve lost the first few contests.

  23. Jaxemer11 Says:

    20 – What does Pawlenty have to do with Romney leading a poll in New Hampshire? Pawlenty has never come close to leading any poll in this race.

  24. mcon Says:

    Romney just needs a simple 1st place finish. His second place finish there last time sets him up well if he wins this time.

  25. Jaxemer11 Says:

    22 – You are right. I think the early states can kill a candidate, but I think it is really hard to make yourself a viable candidate off the early states alone. It takes more than that, and I think that is evidenced by 70+ years of the Republicans nominating people who had either run in the past or had very high name recognition before the race started.

  26. Jaxemer11 Says:

    22 – In other words, to win you have to do well in the early states and have high name recognition early on. You can’t win without one or the other.

  27. jarvis Says:

    Jaxemer11 Says:
    June 29th, 2011 at 5:39 pm

    Looks like Mitt the untrustworthy “charlatan” doesn’t exist in New Hampshire (where they know him pretty well).

    Obviously he flip-flopped. In NH he is a competent upstanding man of character but every else he panders by trying to be the opposite. :-)

  28. marK Says:

    Jaxemer,

    Pawlenty was expected to win in Iowa and blow away the competition at Ames. Enter Michele Bachmann stage left.

    Now he has to blow her out of the water. Anything less than a resounding victory will be viewed as a loss. That is what happened to Mitt in 2008 in the same poll, same state.

  29. GetReal Says:

    28 – even worse, Romney DID blow away the competition at Ames. Huck came in 13 percent behind him. Of course, Pawlenty was mostly expected to win Iowa by insiders, most of the nation has barely heard of him until recently, so expectations for him won’t be as high as they were for Romney.

  30. Jonathan Says:

    #28:

    The way Pawlenty gets around that, I think, is to follow the McCain “live off the land” strategy of 2008 and to tell everyone that he is doing it. Ames is still a month and a half away. If Pawlenty essentially camps out in Iowa, he can cultivate at least enough support to perform well enough in Ames.

    Here actually is the McCain 08 plan. The last page is the actual McCain finance plan http://www.politico.com/pdf/PPM41_strategy_memo_-_july_18_2007_-_final.pdf

  31. Jaxemer11 Says:

    28 – I don’t know who expected that, besides perhaps Smack.

  32. Jaxemer11 Says:

    Does anyone disagree with my assessment of the early states in relation to the bigger Super Tuesday states? (see comment #18, 25, and 22). I’m not looking to argue, but I would like someone to point out where my thinking is wrong if it is.

  33. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    ANOTHER POLL SHOWS PERRY AT 13

    Romney 18
    Perry 13
    Bachmann 11
    Giuliani 10
    Palin 8
    Paul 7

    Everyone else 5 or less

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/06/29/romney-remains-top-gop-preference-as-perry-draws-close-behind/

    Confirmation of the McClachy poll for Perry. That’s pretty impressive considering he is still just a “possible candidate”.

  34. aspire Says:

    I wonder what would happen if Mitt got 3rd in Iowa. I’m sure he’d still win NH, so would that mean he’d have 2 similar opponents left?

  35. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    34,

    If Mitt gets third in Iowa then he very likely loses SC. That means he is in big trouble.

  36. Jonathan Says:

    #32:

    I think the early states can do it on their own. Look at Huckabee and Romney. A win in IA and 2nd place in both propelled them to the finals in the Republican primary. McCain won the nomination because absolutely everything went right for him, not because of his high name id.

  37. Jaxemer11 Says:

    36 – I don’t know that I agree with that. I’m not arguing that there won’t be other people in the race on Super Tuesday, just that they can’t win on Super Tuesday without significant name recognition before the race starts. McCain dominated on Super Tuesday, and I think a huge reason for that was his name recognition. Huckabee never had a chance, and while Romney made a good effort, he ultimately fell far short.

    McCain wasn’t a good candidate, yet it really was Super Tuesday that won the race for him. Everything went right for him because of name recognition, not luck.

  38. Jaxemer11 Says:

    McCain won 602 delegates on Super Tuesday (mostly from the big states where name recognition is most important). Romney won 7 states to McCain’s 9, but only got 201 delegates. Huckabee did even worse with 5 states and 152 delegates.

    McCain received 42% of the popular vote on Super Tuesday, far more than he did in the early states.

  39. Jaxemer11 Says:

    Of the pre-Super Tuesday states, Romney won 4, McCain won 3, and Huckabee won 1.

  40. Jonathan Says:

    #37:

    I attribute McCain’s Super Tuesday wins to momentum from Florida, Rudy dropping out, and the division of the anti-McCAin vote between Huckabee and Romney. That wasn’t name id.

  41. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    38,

    So Romney lost on Super Tuesday because he didn’t have name recognition? Really?

    After all of the advertising, all of the millions spent, all of the debates Romney lost because he wasn’t well known?

    His problem wasn’t that he wasn’t well known. He WAS. His problem was that he wasn’t held in high esteem.

  42. Jaxemer11 Says:

    40 – I guess we’ll just have to disagree. 70 years of evidence is pretty compelling in my mind though.

  43. Jaxemer11 Says:

    41 – How many people do you think watched the debates? Yes, I do think name recognition mattered.

  44. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    43,

    I think that of those Republican who cast ballots the vast majority of them either viewed at least one debate or watched coverage of them after the fact. Couple that with Mitt’s millions and the assertion that he just wasn’t well known falls flat.

    People knew Mitt by Super Tuesday. They knew McCain in 2000. They knew both Reagan and Ford in 1976.

  45. Jonathan Says:

    #42:

    Every front-runner since the primaries began and even before than, has nearly lost the nomination. Nixon in 68 was less than 50 votes over the top on the first ballot, Ford had to fight Reagan all the way to the convention in 76, Reagan nearly lost to Bush in 80, Bush nearly lost to Dole in 88, Dole nearly lost to everyone in 96, Bush nearly lost to McCain in 00 and McCain got every break in the world.

    If one of any number of little things had gone differently, then that streak would’ve been broken.

  46. marK Says:

    aspire.34:“I wonder what would happen if Mitt got 3rd in Iowa. I’m sure he’d still win NH, so would that mean he’d have 2 similar opponents left?”

    There’s an old saying, “Three tickets out of Iowa. Two tickets out of New Hampshire.”

  47. Jaxemer11 Says:

    44 – I think you are wrong. Note that Ford and Reagan went to the wire (and split the big states), which actually supports my theory.

  48. Dave Says:

    Romney won 6 or 7 states on Super Tuesday. What knocked him out was a series of very narrow losses in states he needed to pull ahead. Here in Missouri, he finished third, for example, but he was only 3 or 4 points behind. The same thing happened in Georgia and Tennessee, as well as in about 35 congressional districts in California that he lost by less than 5 points.

    That was then. This is now.

  49. Jonathan Says:

    #48:

    California statewide was more decisive than that.

    McCain: 42.25%
    Romney: 34.56&
    Huckabee: 11.62%

    http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

  50. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    47,

    It doesn’t support your theory. It just says that there were warring factions within the GOP and that they were nearly equally balanced in power. No one can say that they didn’t know of Reagan by Super Tuesday in 1976. And they certainly knew the sitting president.

  51. Jaxemer11 Says:

    45 – In the early states that is true, but not once we got past them. Dole won a huge number of states. That supports my theory, it doesn’t hurt it.

    McCain carried 31+ states in 2008 (and all but 2 after Super Tuesday)
    Bush carried 43 states in 2000
    Dole carried 44 states in 1996
    Bush I carried 41 states in 1988
    Reagan carried 44 states in 1980
    As I said in 47, in 1976 Reagan and Ford were both very well known prior to the race and split almost 50/50 (Ford 27, Reagan 23)

    Prior to that the primaries were different, so it is hard to compare.

  52. Jaxemer11 Says:

    50 – Are you even paying attention to what I am saying? The reason it was close in 1976 was because Reagan was so well known. Since that race, the well best known candidate has won convincingly every time.

  53. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    Why does the fact that Reagan and Ford were close have to mean that they were MORE well known than other primary candidates in other years.

    It could just as easily be that those candidates garnered support in such a way to make it close.

  54. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    Buchanan was at least as well known as Bob Dole in 1996.

  55. Jonathan Says:

    #51:

    But like I said, in every primary race, the best-known candidate nearly lost. It wasn’t name id that saved Reagan in 80, it was “I’m paying for this microphone”, the “Senator Straddle” ad saved Bush in 88. Dole won in 96 because his top two opponents were the unelectable Buchanan and Forbes. If Lamar Alexander had beaten Dole in either IA or NH, he could very well have won the nomination.

  56. Jaxemer11 Says:

    53 – It doesn’t. It is just a theory. Do you have any evidence to contradict it?

  57. Jaxemer11 Says:

    55 – Name recognition doesn’t matter as much in the early states. What I am saying is that the candidates campaign really hard in the early states and everyone knows who they are, and then the neglect the later states and the one with the most name recognition usually always dominates.

    I’m just saying that maybe there is too much emphasis placed on the close contests in the early states when in the end they aren’t that relevant. Sure, if a candidate does abysmally (like Giuliani did) early on it can kill them, but there is no evidence that an unknown candidate who wins in the early states can win the nomination. In fact, it hasn’t been done.

  58. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    56,

    Sure. Pat Buchanan contradicts it. After Buchanan’s Culture War speech in 1992, EVERY Republican knew who he was when he got 38 percent of the vote in New Hampshire. Bob Dole was just a wonk in the senate to the average voter who doesn’t live and breathe this stuff.

    And Bob Dole won the primary contest.

  59. Jaxemer11 Says:

    54 – Was he? He had never won before. Dole was the heavy favorite early on. Dole only one won early state, yet he dominated on Super Tuesday and from there on out. Buchanan only won three states.

  60. Jaxemer11 Says:

    58 – How do you know every Republican knew Pat Buchanan? What are you basing that on?

  61. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    59,

    I genuinely believe he was. I don’t know how old you are – but I remember that 1992 campaign. He gave Bush a real scare.

  62. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    60,

    The fact that all of the media paid attention to his speech and his 38 percent showing against a sitting president in the first primary of the cycle. That was a big friggin’ deal.

  63. Jaxemer11 Says:

    59 .. excuse me, I meant to say that Buchanan had never run before, and I was wrong about that. He had run in 1992. Still, he didn’t do anything in 1996 outside of New Hampshire. I never said name recognition was the only ingredient, only one of them.

    Do you have any evidence of someone that is unknown dominating in the early states and then winning the election, Adam X?

  64. Jaxemer11 Says:

    It is impossible to say whether I am right or wrong, but I think it makes sense and the history certainly seems to support it. No one has won the nomination without having previously won or been well known before the race. Furthermore, there are only a handful of cases where the nominee has won without California and New York.

  65. Jonathan Says:

    #57:

    All I’m saying is that the most well known candidates win the later states because of their win in the earlier states. Like I said, we saw in 2008 when two of the candidates with the highest name id, Thompson and Giuliani, won none of the early states and were out of it by Super Tuesday.

    No doubt there is a certain instinct in the GOP to stick with what is known including with candidates. We are the conservative party after all. But I think the fact that the most well-known candidate has won in the past does not necessarily predetermine that the nominee will be that candidate this time. If Romney wins neither Iowa or New Hampshire, then I highly doubt he’ll be the nominee.

  66. Jaxemer11 Says:

    The only one that I am aware of is Ford in 1976 where California went for their favorite son Reagan.

  67. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    63,

    George W. was essentially unknown and had never run for national office and went on to win. Though admittedly its probably unfair to look at the son of a former president.

    It just seems like a really flimsy theory. Everyone knows that Florida could have easily gone the other way in 2008. Crist endorses Romney or McCain loses SC and Romney is the nominee.

  68. Jaxemer11 Says:

    65 – I agree with that. I think I already said that. You can’t win the nomination without doing well in the early states. But it is also true that to this point that you cannot win without dominating on Super Tuesday, and no one that was unknown before the race has ever done that.

  69. Jonathan Says:

    #63:

    That’s not entirely accurate. Buchanan won the Louisiana Caucus, which was before Iowa, fatally wounding Phil Gramm. That caused Buchanan to move up to 2nd in Iowa and later win New Hampshire.

  70. Jaxemer11 Says:

    67 – Wait, I thought you said everyone knew Romney and hated him in 2008. How could he have won in the face of so much opposition by merely getting a Crist endorsement?

  71. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    70,

    Because McCain was extraordinarily weak. Either of them would have only won with a plurality and without enthusiasm from the base.

  72. Jaxemer11 Says:

    69 – Still, my theory is about whether unknowns can win, not about whether knowns can falter. It is surely the case that Romney can falter and lose this race. My question is whether someone that is unknown can do enough in the early states to win the nomination without Romney or Palin (the other person I count as a “known”) faltering early.

  73. Jaxemer11 Says:

    71 – LOL. How many knots are you going to tie yourself into?

  74. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    73,

    Knots? Really? The contest was within a handful of points. You want me to dig up quotes from the Rombots blaming Crist for Romney’s loss in FL?

    That’s really that much of a stretch?

  75. Jaxemer11 Says:

    74 – How is that relevant at all to this discussion? You are a clown.

  76. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    And besides, no one has ever tied themself into as many knots as Romney has over the last decade, so if that’s what I do then I have good company :)

  77. Jonathan Says:

    #72:

    Well, if anyone other than Romney is the nominee, then an unknown will have won. Even if Palin gets in, she has no chance and by definition all the others are unknowns.

  78. Jaxemer11 Says:

    77 – I realize that. Which is why I think it is an interesting theory. We will see how predictive it is this cycle or not. Anyone other than Romney winning would be pretty unprecedented, from a historical viewpoint.

  79. Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:

    75,

    It’s relevant because your hypothesis is based on a small number or presidential contests since 1976 and there are several inflection points where very small subtle shifts or endorsements could have had major effects on the eventual nominee.

    What if some of those states in 1976 that were close were shifted a few points in the opposite direct. Reagan could have won. In 2000, if McCain was able to capitalize on the fact that the Bushies played hardball in South Carolina and said he fathered an illegitimate black child, the election could have gone the other way. NH+SC could have propelled McCain to victory.

    Likewise in 2008 – a shift of a few points in FL or SC could have had drastic effects on who won the nomination.

    I don’t think there are any hard “rules” about who can or can’t win the nomination. If Romney runs the best campaign and garners support then he’ll win the nomination because of that and not because he ran before. If he falters it will be purely because someone runs a better campaign.

  80. Jaxemer11 Says:

    79 – Why do you keep bringing up 1976? Haven’t we already established that both candidates were well known and either of them could have won? If that wasn’t clear, that is what I meant in all my previous posts about 1976.

    In all the other cases, the eventual candidate dominated on Super Tuesday, which is what I am arguing. I am not suggesting anything about the results of early states.

  81. Jaxemer11 Says:

    79 – You don’t know how things would have gone if the race was different early on. You are just speculating based on the common idea that an unknown candidate can gain enough momentum to win the nomination in early states. That is an idea that has never happened in reality.

  82. Jaxemer11 Says:

    79 – I am not saying there are any hard rules. I am trying to infer trends from past elections. The idea that early states are the only thing that matters is an idea that is often held to, but there is no evidence to back it up at all.

  83. Jaxemer11 Says:

    Has any unknown candidate ever been able to gain momentum out of early states to then go on and win the nomination? Why do we think it would be any different this time?

  84. Jaxemer11 Says:

    84 – That is uncalled for. Why isn’t this guy banned by now?

  85. Smack1968 Says:

    Suffolk Poll FAVS/UNFAVS for GOP & INDIES

    Romney-71/15…….60/20

    Palin- 54/31…….20/68

    Huntsman-19/20…..22/17

    Pawlenty-41/10…..32/18

    Gingrich-30/49…..17/63

    Bachmann-53/16…..38/25

    Cain-34/13………18/17

    Paul-42/34………33/42

    Santorum-36/15…..20/23

    Fantastic numbers for Romney in both GOP & INDIES FAV/UNFAVS. Best FAV/UNFAVS Ratio’s for both.

    Pawlenty has the second best FAV/UNFAVS ratio’s among both GOP & INDIES…..but what does it get him?…..2%.

    Bachmann has third best FAV/UNFAVS ratio’s and she gets…11%

    :(

    Huntsman shows some strength among INDIES when compared to the rest of the GOP candidates..at least it’s something for him to hang his hat on.

    As Nate Silver has said about TPAW….his FAV/UNFAVS numbers reflect a Frontrunner..but his top line numbers do not.

    I have come to the belief that many of the GOP voters who like TPAW…who say they have a favorable opinion about the guy, are sticking with Mitt right now.

    The only way out for TPAW is to have Romney not enter Iowa for any reason…money..debates…TV ADS…highly doubtful

    :(

    Pawlenty needs Romney’s voters in Iowa to peel off and go to the TPAW camp.

    Big uphill climb…but with great FAV/UNFAVS, TPAW is not going to give up until the people of Iowa make him give up at AMES.

  86. Smack1968 Says:

    84# – that’s a horrible comment.

  87. Jaxemer11 Says:

    Seriously, I’ve had enough of TheTotalConservative. Either he gets banned or I’m not coming back anymore. That crap is ridiculous.

  88. Smack1968 Says:

    Whatever amount of money Romney has raised that amount is just fine. Romney has some decent burn rate (big staff) but he hasn’t gone all out…not even close.

    Bachmann and Paul will be ok as well.

    Everybody else will be very poor.

    Numbers will not be as high as we thougt for everyone because there is some apathy, but there is also another reason… we the people are broke..

    Romney’s money ratio over everybody else will be as high as we all thought….so no big deal what the true raw numbers are..the advantage will be the same.

  89. Smack1968 Says:

    Jax,

    Don’t leave, you bring alot to the table. Don’t let a guy like him run you out.

    Who am I going to argue with if you leave?

    :)

  90. Jaxemer11 Says:

    89 – You’re right. I think the economy has something to do with it too. Romney will be fine financially, but I do think it would be a pretty big disappointment if he raised under $20 million. Nothing that would end his campaign though. He will still be way ahead of everyone else. Just not as far ahead.

  91. Jaxemer11 Says:

    90 – I am fine with people disagreeing, but I don’t need that kind of offensive language. If this site doesn’t care about policing it, then I can find somewhere else t talk about politics.

  92. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Jax.

    I answered you on the Pawlenty thread.

    ….didn’t want you to feel ignored…..

  93. Jaxemer11 Says:

    93 – Thanks! … I think?

  94. jaaron Says:

    yo, jax – Total conservative’s comment was removed, what was the gist? Just wondering?

  95. marK Says:

    jaaron,

    His remarks did not belong on a family website. Kavon had no choice but to ban him.

  96. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Almost every comment he made was obnoxious and rude.

    At least sometimes I throw in baseball scores or something….

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