PPP has released their latest vs. Obama poll for Texas:
| (vs. Obama) | Obama | Candidate | Margin |
| Romney | 42 | 50 | 8 |
| Paul | 40 | 45 | 5 |
| Bachmann | 44 | 47 | 3 |
| Pawlenty | 43 | 44 | 1 |
| Cain | 43 | 43 | 0 |
| Palin | 46 | 44 | -2 |
| Perry | 47 | 45 | -2 |
Romney leads the overall state comfortably. Perry comes in dead last. Palin ties him for last place, but does a bit better in the raw numbers.
Here are the ideological crosstabs:
| (vs. Obama) | All | Very Liberal | Somewhat liberal | Moderate | Somewhat Conservative | Very Conservative |
| Romney | 8 | -67 | -70 | -40 | 53 | 73 |
| Paul | 5 | -76 | -66 | -34 | 41 | 64 |
| Bachmann | 3 | -76 | -72 | -48 | 39 | 76 |
| Pawlenty | 1 | -76 | -76 | -52 | 44 | 72 |
| Cain | 0 | -76 | -76 | -51 | 34 | 76 |
| Palin | -2 | -54 | -78 | -54 | 29 | 74 |
| Perry | -2 | -69 | -72 | -55 | 39 | 70 |
Note the meme-busting data point where Palin does the best amongst the Very Liberals.
No mention of Gingrich or Huntsman.
Conclusions:
The race is far from sewn up. Romney does the best, but it is still close. It is interesting to note that Texans who know Perry the best, place him dead last compared with Obama. Perry does best in no category of ideology. The closest he comes is in the Very Conservative category where is six points behind the leader. That is good enough for a sixth out of seven place finish there. When six people are within six points, it’s very jumbled and is more or less a statistical tie.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Soooooo…..
In the last SurveyUSA poll a week ago it had Obama 46% / Pawlenty 46%….it also had Bachmann down 16 points to Obama.
This poll has Perry down 2 points to Obama in Texas.
hhuuuuummmm……..
TPAW tied with Obama in a blue state………Perry down 2 points to Obama in a red state (TPAW up 1)
hhuuuuuummmmmmmmm…….
….wait for it……
………… wait for it………
THE PERRY PLUNGE!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 29th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
What the ????? This is even worse that tpaw getting his butt kicked by romney in minnesota.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Keep your eye on the Somewhat Conservative Crosstab..as long as Romney out performs the rest of the GOP candidates in this tab he will not be defeated.
Somewhat Conservative voters gave McCain the edge over Mitt last time in many primary states.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:21 pm
Ahem
June 29th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
…of course.. to many ROMBOTS were not suppose to look at PPP polls…unless of course they show Romney in a good light.
Ahem.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:28 pm
Perry numbers in his own state are terrible.. So, do people really think he will have an impact if he joins the race?? I think not!
June 29th, 2011 at 2:28 pm
5
I was just clearing my throat, Smack. Sheesh.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Ehhh.
Perry was supposed to lose in 2006. And twice in 2010 – first to KBH, and then after he cleaned her clock and won that race by 21 points, he was supposed to lose to “strong” Democrat Bill White.
It is what it is. He’s been governor since 2000. Some measure of fatigue is bound to set in. Yet he hasn’t lost a race yet. He’s a great campaigner. That says something.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Thunder,
It’s not surprising that Texans are lukewarm on a Perry plunge. I guess after you’ve been governor for eleven years it takes its toll. At least he won his his reelection bid against a supposedly strong Democrat in White by double digits.
I’m sure Mitt would be faring far better in Massachusetts if he decided to run since he obviously was a hands down favorite for reelection.
Even Jensen concedes,
I’m more interested in the fact that Perry is in 2nd place in the McClatchy poll, at 13, and only 6 points behind the “runaway favorite” Romney – who polls at a whopping 19 percent of the total.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:32 pm
Perry also polled, what, 9% in Texas in the last GOP horserace poll there?
People are going to have to keep looking for a new savior.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:33 pm
Smack1968 Says:
June 29th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
…of course.. to many ROMBOTS were not suppose to look at PPP polls…unless of course they show Romney in a good light.
=============================================================
At least we are not in single digits like ZPaw or in this case barely beating Obama in the Redest of Red States, Texas
June 29th, 2011 at 2:33 pm
Adam,
Pending confirmation, that McClatchy poll looks like an outlier. I said the same thing about a national poll that put TPaw at 13% (that one wasn’t confirmed either).
June 29th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
Thunder,
“At least we are not in single digits like ZPaw or in this case barely beating Obama in the Redest of Red States, Texas”
General Election matchups don’t mean much whith low name ID candidates. In almost every head to head matchup, Obama gets about the same against Romney or TPaw. The difference is Romney gets higher numbers, because of higher name ID, and TPaw gets more undecideds, because of lower name ID. Most of the difference there are conservatives and/or Republicans who don’t want to commit to a candidate they don’t (yet) recognize.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
Matt “MWS” – Adam X,
I noticed on the McClatchy poll..the one that TPAW got 5%….well…
..ahem…
According to the Crosstabs, the poll was taken at two different intervals.
The first Interval..TPAW = 3%
The Second Interval..TPAW = 10%
I’m not saying..but I’m saying…could it be?…the first sign…of….the……..yep.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:
I’m sure Mitt would be faring far better in Massachusetts if he decided to run since he obviously was a hands down favorite for reelection.
=====================================================================
Among Republicans he does, and while every Republican would lose Massachusetts, Romney would be the most competitive with Obama (even an outside chance of beating him). Haven’t seen any poll numbers lately to prove or disprove that.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
I hope he runs. I want to see this race shaken up. I’m not happy with any of the candidates.
Bachmann is a conresswoman. Next.
Paul is Paul. Nope.
Cain never was elected to anything and he wants to be president?
T-Paw I’d be ok with – but I don’t see it happening. The “the Obamneycare wimpout” really hurt him.
Giuliani loves him some gays (He just said so after Cuomo got the wonderful bill through the NYS senate that essentially means we’re going to have to see gay smoocheroo everytime we go to Niagara Falls. Ain’t that lovely?). Good luck with that.
Gingrich Gingriched himself.
I want Perry to get in. He has a record of success in winning elections and a consistent conservatism that can win the nomination and unite the party against Obama.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:39 pm
Matt “MWS” Says:
The difference is Romney gets higher numbers, because of higher name ID
======================================================================
I hate to tell you this, but Name Recognition has a lot to do with why a candidate wins a primary. Why do you think it usually takes two attempts (or more) to win the Republican Nomination. Unknowns rarely do well in the end. That is why even coming in 2nd or 3rd in the process have value down the road (Of Course a VP of a successful candidate does even better).
June 29th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
http://www.timpawlenty.com/articles/minnesota-conservatives-endorse-pawlenty-for-president
Game on Bachmann!
June 29th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
12,
Sure. It could be. But the only other poll which included him was the NBC/WSJ – and he was at 8 in that poll three weeks ago.
If nothing else he fills a void in that he’s a southern conservative governor in a field devoid of such.
I say everyone should support a Perry run. If he crashes and burns then we’re no worse off.
And if the Rombots are confident that he can’t win then they have nothing to fear.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:41 pm
Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:
I want Perry to get in. He has a record of success in winning elections and a consistent conservatism that can win the nomination and unite the party against Obama
=======================================================================
Like when Perry worked as Al Gores Campaign manager in Texas (is that the kind of conservative you like?)
June 29th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
Adam X = Hypocrite
June 29th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
8. “It is what it is. He’s been governor since 2000. Some measure of fatigue is bound to set in. Yet he hasn’t lost a race yet. He’s a great campaigner. That says something.”
He’s a great campaigner. Shootin’ guns in the air and all that. Guess that fires up enough Texans to get him reelected. Time will tell whether that schtick works outside of Texas.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
20,
Dude. Gore was pro-life in 1988. Romney was an “Independent” during Reagan/Bush.
Maybe Perry will falter, but if he does it won’t be because he supported Gore when he was nothing like the Gore of recent times.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:45 pm
Not a chance Obama beats Perry in Texas. Gardasil (sp?) and the Trans-Texas Corridor may have hurt Perry here, but he still won the 2010 Gubernatorial Race easily.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:46 pm
22,
Wlliam McKenzie of Sacremento Bee,
June 29th, 2011 at 2:49 pm
23
Perry was an elected Democrat during the time of Reagan/Bush. That is worse than being an independent, let me tell ya.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
It’s becoming an aggravation to have to wade through polls that include undeclared potential candidates. I really don’t care who gets in or doesn’t; just do it already.
Every time I have to reluctantly embrace patience, I can’t help flirting with impatience. She’s always more attractive.
Palin, Perry, Giuliani! I’m calling you out!
Yeah. Thought that’s what I’d hear in response.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
Adam,
I agree that Perry’s having been a Dem won’t, or at least shouldn’t, be an issue. Although, I did find one point of interest in your quote in 25: “Ever since, Perry has followed the political winds…”
Political winds? Do we need to understand more about that?
June 29th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
I’m all for a Perry run Adam. I think he is the most likely strong opponent to Mitt at this point. I don’t know nearly enough about him at this point. I would worry that there is still a lingering Anti-Bush sentiment in the country and looking/sounding like and being from same state/having same political position as W can only work against him. But he must be popular to be in for as long as he has been.
It has been interesting to see the rise and fall of so many potential candidates though. I think Smack may be right about the whole Bachmann thing. She came off as strong in the last debate – but she keeps shooting herself in the foot much akin to Palin circa 2007. But we’ll see.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:53 pm
Watchinitall,
“Every time I have to reluctantly embrace patience, I can’t help flirting with impatience. She’s always more attractive.
Palin, Perry, Giuliani! I’m calling you out!
Yeah. Thought that’s what I’d hear in response.”
Very nice….I like the writing.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:54 pm
I’m for Perry getting in as well, if he wants to. Same with Palin and Guiliani. If my candidate can’t beat all comers, he doesn’t deserve the nomination.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:55 pm
Ben,
You mean I maybe right about something?
HOLY SMOKE!
Miracles can happen.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
31
No, if Mitt can’t beat all comers, Rush, Levin, Ingraham, Reagan, Boortz, Hannity, and all the pundits on FOX don’t deserve to have any influence any longer.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
hamaca,
I want everybody out except TPAW.
I don’t want to have to find out if TPAW deserves it or not……….I want victory.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:58 pm
I agree with Adam X (who happens to agree with Mitt Romney, BTW). The more, the merrier.
However, there are a few exceptions with that. The people I respect and/or admire but am convinced that they will bomb badly — those I don’t wish to see enter the race. Gingrich is a prime example of this. I predicted when he got in that he would just end up embarrassing himself. So far, I am right.
Running hard and losing is one thing. Embarrassing yourself is quite another.
June 29th, 2011 at 2:59 pm
27
Totally agree. I’m tired of waiting for announcements. Let’s get this show on the road!!!
2012 cannot come soon enough!!! I love the primary season. So much news. So much craziness. So many contests. It’s like playoff basketball. It just keeps on keepin’ on.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:04 pm
Who cares what Perry did in 1988? I don’t.
I have a statute of limitations on stupidity of ten years. It doesn’t matter what stupid thing you did in the past. If it was more than ten years ago, and you haven’t repeated the same mistake since then, forget about it. It’s all water under the bridge.
I want to be judged by what I am now, not what I was ten years ago. So why shouldn’t I extend that same courtesy to politicians, even ones I dislike or don’t support?
June 29th, 2011 at 3:11 pm
#27 and #36,
Oh, I don’t know. It’s sort of fun watching the fan dance. Palin has become quite good at it. She never quite says one way or the other if she is running or not. She is stringing out as long as she can.
It’s fun to watch those who categorically declare that she is most definitely running because all the evidence proves that she’s in, and those who categorically declare that she is most definitely NOT running because all the evidence proves that she’s staying out.
It’s great fun, especially when you are like me and really don’t care if she enters or not.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Kind of random (not really) but here’s a really cool interview of a good friend of mine in Pella yesterday:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyharnden/100094416/sarah-palins-man-in-iowa-says-she-will-run-for-the-white-house-in-2012/
Those looking for insight on a Palin run might enjoy it.
I just can’t stop smiling.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:13 pm
WOW…WOW….WOW!!!!!! Perry loses to BHO in freakin TEXAS?! Holy crap man. Now I REALLY hope Palin, Perry and RG all get in. Perry apparently wont pull the support I thought he might, Palin is already near her ceiling, RG would steal votes from Romney, and Huck would just continue to sit and wait until the electorate was BEGGING for someone to unite behind. My wishful think never ceases to amaze me!
June 29th, 2011 at 3:14 pm
Tele:“I just can’t stop smiling.”
You will, my friend. You will.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:16 pm
Huckarubio.#40
You do know that the Easter Bunny is a myth, don’t you?
June 29th, 2011 at 3:20 pm
Here are some photos and videos from the world premier in Pella.
Including one photo I was able to tweet before my BlackBerry went dead. (grrrr)
http://politicons.net/first-photos-of-sarah-palin-in-pella-iowa/
My first time to Pella, what a beautiful community.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:22 pm
hamaca,
The sense I got was that as the southern states shifted their allegience from Democrat to Republican as the Democrats become more liberal, urbane and northern based, Perry did what lots of southerners did, like Jesse Helms, Richard Shelby, etc, they switched to the Republican Party.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:27 pm
“Gay couple claims Giuliani ignoring pledge to marry them”
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/gay-couple-claims-giuliani-ignoring-pledge-marry-them-145600635.html
Does this mean he is still considering a 2012 run?
June 29th, 2011 at 3:38 pm
Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:
June 29th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
20,
Dude. Gore was pro-life in 1988. Romney was an “Independent” during Reagan/Bush.
=================================================================================
So, he still tried to take down the Gipper. Too me, anyone who opposed Reagan has a lot to answer for, especially as Converted Democrat
June 29th, 2011 at 3:41 pm
Thunder,
“I hate to tell you this, but Name Recognition has a lot to do with why a candidate wins a primary”
Now be honest….. you didn’t hate telling me that.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Teledude – is that you in the shorts? or are you the one taking the picture?
June 29th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
nevermind – I read the article/write up around the pics and realize that it is the bakery owner. cool experience for you I’m sure.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:49 pm
Matt “MWS” Says:
Now be honest….. you didn’t hate telling me that
=============================================
Your right, I didn’t mind saying it at all….. In 2008, it is the main reason that McCain won (IMHO)
June 29th, 2011 at 3:51 pm
More bad news for Pawlenty….
Mitt Romney (R) leads Republican presidential contenders among the Granite State’s likely GOP voters, drawing the support of 36 percent of them.
Bachmann is the only candidate other than Romney in double digits; 11 percent of New Hampshire Republicans said they support the three-term congresswoman as the nominee, up from 3 percent in early May.
============================================================
Looks right now that it will be Romney vs Bachmann, and I look those odds.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:51 pm
Oh, forgot the link.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/168933-bachmann-vaults-to-second-place-in-new-hampshire
June 29th, 2011 at 3:52 pm
Rounding out the poll are Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) at eight percent, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) at five percent, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (R) at four percent, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) and pizza mogul Herman Cain at two percent.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:57 pm
Another glaring reason polling at this stage is laughable at best. So, Obama is going to get 47% of the vote in Texas after getting 42 in 2008 at his peak? Right…
And he’s going to fare better against Perry than Bill White who is a vastly better candidate in Texas. Right…
Just add this to a long line of ridiculous polls.
June 29th, 2011 at 3:59 pm
54,
Bill White was supposed to beat Perry too. Except he lost, by a lot.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:19 pm
Clinton was unpopular in Arkansas after 10 years then duly won the State easily. So would Rick (obviously).
June 29th, 2011 at 4:20 pm
19. Hey! Adam X: I totally agree with this! I like it, but it’s weirding me out.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:21 pm
55,
Exactly…Perry crushed him by 12.7 points and he would beat Obama by more than that. Polls like these are ridiculous. No GOP candidate is going to lose Texas especially Perry. Perry would win between 57-60% of the vote. This is almost as laughable as the poll that had Tennessee being close.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:22 pm
http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2011/06/29/romney-raises-less-20-million-second-quarter
Is this really true? I tend to dismiss it as a play by the Romney camp but could Mitt really have raised only 20 million in 2Q? As a Romney supporter, I would have to say that number would surprise me. I expected it to be 40+ million. Shows what I know.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:24 pm
My wife and I are making a donation to Mitt today. My boss is too. Gotta help the guy out because I was hoping for more than 20 million (if that’s really the number).
June 29th, 2011 at 4:26 pm
30/34 Thanks, and I like your humor and exuberance. Exuberant Minnesotans! Who knew?!
June 29th, 2011 at 4:37 pm
39 – Great News! When is she announcing?
June 29th, 2011 at 4:39 pm
# Adam X (Run Rick Run!) Says:
I say everyone should support a Perry run. If he crashes and burns then we’re no worse off.
And if the Rombots are confident that he can’t win then they have nothing to fear.
=================================================================
From a pure strategic point of view, I welcome a Perry run as I do not fear him. He actually makes Romney’s chances of winning that much better. The one’s who should fear him is Bachmann and ZPaw.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:41 pm
As a Romney guy, Palin getting in only helps Romney. Palin would further subdivide the non Romney support that exists between Bachmann, TPaw, Cain, Newt (if anyone still supports him), Santorum, etc.
Just my opinion.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:42 pm
19 – “And if the Rombots are confident that he can’t win then they have nothing to fear.”
You’re right.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:42 pm
“I say everyone should support a Perry run. If he crashes and burns then we’re no worse off.”
Why is it so freakin’ hard for some on here to have this attitude about Palin?
I say everyone should support a Palin run. If she crashes and burns then we’re no worse off.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:45 pm
#6 Perry’s answer to these terrible numbers in his own state is “a PROPHET (what the heck!!) is not liked in his own country.” WOW!
June 29th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
#66 But if she doesn’t crash and burn we are worse off.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:52 pm
#67:
Now, I’m an old-fashioned man, but I’d rather trust the Prophet Jeremiah over the prophet Perry.
June 29th, 2011 at 5:01 pm
60 — I highly doubt he raised less than $20 million in the entire quarter. Heck, he raised over $10 million in ONE DAY.
I guess we shall soon see.
June 29th, 2011 at 5:05 pm
66 – I have always been a pro-Palin running guy. When is she going to announce?
June 29th, 2011 at 5:08 pm
Not sure why this poll wasn’t posted here over the weekend this is at least as interesting as Perry’s poor performance in this poll, Mitt leading the pack, but trailing Obama in FL with Rubio not really helping:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_624925.pdf
June 29th, 2011 at 5:15 pm
Gov. Scott’s frightful numbers might also be an ominous sign for the GOP in FL in 2012:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_0627.pdf
June 29th, 2011 at 5:18 pm
73,
That’s what PPP would like to believe is true because they like kissing Obama’s ass.
But when Taft had truly horrible approval in Ohio in 2004 George Bush still managed to hand Kerry his hat.
Governors’ approvals mean exactly nothing in a presidential contest. Especially when those governors aren’t up for reelection.
June 29th, 2011 at 5:25 pm
PPP is and always has been a joke. When they can be verified, they actually do a decent job. Otherwise, they are nothing more than a push polling organization. The only time I would take them seriously is within a month of an actual vote.
June 29th, 2011 at 5:27 pm
8 Perry was supposed to lose in 2006. And twice in 2010 – first to KBH, and then after he cleaned her clock and won that race by 21 points, he was supposed to lose to “strong” Democrat Bill White.
———————
Where on earth did you get that meme? I live in Texas. Perry was never seriously at threatened by KBH, who is seen by and large as a moderate, and Bill White was never seen as a strong Democrat.
June 29th, 2011 at 5:31 pm
76,
Perry was losing to KBH in the polls for months and virtually tied with White for a while. Democrats were very bullish on his chances.
June 29th, 2011 at 5:32 pm
Only 51% of Republicans supported Perry in the last Republican primary. Not exactly a huge victory.
June 29th, 2011 at 5:34 pm
78,
Yeah it was. In a three-way race where the second place finisher was 21 points lower, 51 is a very respectable showing.
June 29th, 2011 at 5:45 pm
80 – Not if you are have been “consistently conservative” and are going to be the savior of the Republican Party.
June 29th, 2011 at 5:51 pm
75. That may be true but we’re at 80 comments and counting on this PPP poll, I just don’t see why the FL poll is any less worthy of the front page.
June 29th, 2011 at 5:58 pm
81 – And don’t know, and don’t really care. PPP is a joke.
June 29th, 2011 at 6:01 pm
As far as fund raising reports, there are pledges and there is cash. Romney may have received a lot of his Las Vegas money in pledges to be taken out over the course of a year. His actual cash haul for the day may have been less.
June 29th, 2011 at 6:07 pm
83 – I think they report pledges, not cash received. I could be wrong though. Pledges are as good as cash though … they can take out a loan against them if they need to.
June 29th, 2011 at 6:17 pm
Jax,
That’s rich coming from someone boosting a candidate who just today polled 19 among Republicans.
No one said he was going to be the savior. Certainly I didn’t. I’d be happy with him beating Mitt and then Obama.
June 29th, 2011 at 6:28 pm
ANOTHER POLL SHOWS PERRY AT 13
Romney 18
Perry 13
Bachmann 11
Giuliani 10
Palin 8
Paul 7
Everyone else 5 or less
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/06/29/romney-remains-top-gop-preference-as-perry-draws-close-behind/
June 29th, 2011 at 6:35 pm
85 – I can’t take you seriously anymore. Not only are you citing a POLL with major flaws on the face of it, but you are comparing the results of a VOTE in a primary with an incumbent Governor to the POLL results of one of 14 Presidential contenders 6 months before any votes take place.
Every indication shows that Perry is not the massive hit among conservative Republicans in his home state that his backers want to make him out to be.
June 29th, 2011 at 6:36 pm
Haven’t we seen this song and dance? In SC, Romney supposedly beats Obama in SC and DeMint does not. I don’t buy this song and dance. The fact is that
whoever wins the nomination will beat Obama in Texas. PPP in head to head matches are bullcrap.
June 29th, 2011 at 6:46 pm
There’s no chance that Bam could win Texas, no matter who the challenger is. Bam’s anti-energy policies will make him anathema there like he is here in Dem-dominated West Virginia.
June 29th, 2011 at 6:48 pm
87,
Very well. I ‘ll continue not to take your mindless cheerleading seriously. The poll that you contend has major flaws on the face of it was just corroborated by another poll.
Two polls today. Mitt is in the high teens. Not exactly cause for celebration.
You disingenuosly assert that Perry didn’t do well in his primary bit, mentioning that he got “only” 51 percent – but you neglect to mention it was a three way race and he beat his nearest competition by over 20 points. That wasn’t a poll. It was an actual election.
And it’s not true that every indication shows Perry isn’t a “hit” as you contend. He’s already in the teens and he hasn’t even announced his candidacy. That’s far ahead of Mitt at this point in the game four years ago and Perry has a much greater record of election success. I’m happy where my potential candidate is right now.
June 29th, 2011 at 7:00 pm
90 – You are the one that insists that 80% of Republicans hate Mitt because he only polls around 20%. So does that mean 49% of Texas Republicans also hated Perry? And if 80% hate Mitt in this race, do 85% hate Perry?
June 29th, 2011 at 7:00 pm
ANOTHER POLL SHOWS PERRY AT 13
====================
This poll is on the goofy side. It is a random sample of 912 randomly registered voters with 312 GOP voters.
June 29th, 2011 at 7:04 pm
91,
First of all – it’s well known that the presidential primary contests are ALWAYS multi-candidate fields. Most gubernatorial elections, the vast majority, are two-man races. You mentioned Perry only getting 51 percent in a sly way to suggest that the other 49 percent specifically opposed him.
And since you bring up name ID on the other thread in a stretch to defend Romney’s loss in 2008 – it’s certainly more true that Perry has lower ID now on the national stage than a man who has been running for president for half a decade.
To put it another way, Perry got to 13 a lot faster than Mitt got to his current 18 or 19 if you believe today’s polls or low 20′s if you want to go by the polling average. Since Mitt is more well known it’s likely that Perry has more upside potential. That’s a good place for him to be at this point in the game.
June 29th, 2011 at 7:15 pm
93 – I did nothing of the sort. I mentioned he only got 51% to show that 49% preferred someone else. The number of other candidates is irrelevant.
Enough of this though. You are being disingenuous (as usual). Have a good night.
June 29th, 2011 at 7:15 pm
A May UT/TT poll shows that among registered voters, 48% would vote for the Republican nominee no matter who it is and 30% would vote for Obama. One would assume that among likely voters it is likely to be higher. It is also interesting that Palin and Perry poll almost the same numbers. Hmmm. A rigged poll perhaps. Ultimately people are not going to vote for Obama if the economy sputters and/or gas prices go up.
June 29th, 2011 at 7:39 pm
29 Mr. Ben,if you think the other guy is better than Mitt let’s that guy fight Obama,so why you let that guy fight Mitt? why you don’t unite behind Mitt and fight Obama but you want to fight your own leader,the true leader that can beat Obama or you want to be a loser again.The true Mitt is the best in all that no one can beat him even Obama right now why you want top fight Mitt and take him down but you know Mitt too little because the more you attack Mitt is the more Mitt stronger,the more you guy hit Mitt is the more Mitt smarter,the more you tear him down is the more you push him to the top and finally he get the nominee and get elected as the next president because right now is Mitt term, because Mitt is the answer for America now,because the economy is on Mitt side and America really need Mitt leadership at this time,no one is better than Mitt.Look around the country now no one in the tea party,in the republican party and in the democrat party is more experienced than Mitt, better than Mitt,look presidential than Mitt,only Mitt is the most qualify for the presidency,let take the right man for the right job,the right leader for the right country and the right person for the right place,the true Mitt is not flip-flopper,he is the developer,he developed himself from the bottom to the top,by his experienced he knew better than any body, by his leadership he is smarter than other,and by his character he is stronger than all of them.
June 29th, 2011 at 9:14 pm
There’s no question Perry would win Texas handily. That’s not the point. What ought to worry his boosters, and apparently doesn’t- just as it doesn’t worry Bachmann’s boosters- is that he’s not at all well-liked by the people who know him best. It’s perfectly true that Pawlenty would have a hard time winning Minnesota or that Romney couldn’t possibly win Massachusetts- but it’s beyond doubt that both of them would do better in their home states than anyone else. Because almost everyone in their states who is inclined to consider Republicans at all likes them. The exact opposite is true of Perry and Bachmann. They wear thin. They’re too obviously, on close inspection, rather empty of substance or accomplishments. Which means that, best case scenario, one of them rides a relatively Republican wave and their own thin veneer of charisma long enough to stretch the old Republican coalition- absurdly rural, wealthy, religious- to it’s absolute utmost and pulls off a very narrow win in 2012. And then promptly collapses that coalition when they wear out their welcome after the slightest change in party fortunes. I think it is extremely likely- and Sean Trende, I think, recently made this point- that a Perry victory results in an even more hopelessly rural Republican Party which, in any but banner years, is incapable of winning anywhere outside of the “heartland”.
June 29th, 2011 at 9:15 pm
97 – For the record, Romney did beat Pawlenty in a recent Minnesota poll.
June 29th, 2011 at 9:42 pm
Jaxemer11,
That poll, which I’d like to see confirmed, had Romney edging Pawlenty in the primary. There’s no sign that he’s done so in the general. SurveyUSA only polled Pawlenty and Bachmann general election matchups. Pawlenty tied Obama, Bachmann lost by 16. Romney would undoubtedly have been somewhere in between. The real embarrassment for Perry here is that he’s doing worse than his fellow Republicans, in a general election matchup, in his home state. And A LOT worse than the only Republican with his name recognition. It’s again, a decent sign that if Perry does well at all, it won’t be for long, and could very easily collapse entirely before next November.
July 21st, 2011 at 6:53 am
Presumptive candidate of Presidents for 8 years vs 4 years is a wrong presumption that both political parties have come to accept as tradition that ignores the liberty of Americans to choose who they want for President rather than having one forced upon them.
It defeats the purpose of elections every 4 years, and subjects the public to no choice politics – our way or the opposition. That is not party loyalty, that is feudal loyalty.
Republicans should not have entertained reelection of Bush knowing the harmful effects of his Presidency, and Democrats should not be bound to Obama knowing the effects upon the public of his austerity program which ignores the condition of the state of the Union. Democrats should not be forced to choose a Republican or re-elect Obama because political parties go for 8 rather than participating fully in every political election by approaching primaries properly. Primaries need not be foreclosed for a political party because that party’s former candidate-winner is in the White House currently as President.
It is not Presidenital disloyalty to view political elections as an all-participation process for parties even if they choose to support the President inhabiting the White House. Political parties lose many more elections by continuing to support candidate presumptees than they need to when finding a new candidate is ignored as an option to retain the White House. It amounts to giving away the White House rather than keeping it, and many unpopular candidates inhabit it because of that process and tradition. There is nothing free about electing Presidential presumptees, and there is no foundation for it in the Constitution.