As a national journalist and columnist who happens to live in Minnesota, and long-time commentator about presidential politics (my first campaign covered was in 1972), I am frequently asked by DC-based colleagues what I think of the Minnesota “Twins.” These are not questions about the baseball team; they are about the remarkable fact that two of the five or six major Republican candidates for president in 2012 are from the Gopher State.
As it happens, I have known Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann for many years and observed their careers evolve from simple beginnings.. In Pawlenty’s case, I first met him in 1990 when he was working for a state gubernatorial campaign. He was then in his late 20s, but it was clear he was a “comer.” Soon after that, he was elected to the state house of representatives where he eventually rose to be majority leader. When he indicated that he would run for U.S. senate (against incumbent Paul Wellstone) in 2001-02, it seemed he could be a serious opponent, although not likely to defeat the well–known incumbent. Then-St. Paul Mayor Norman Coleman announced he would run again for governor (he had been the GOP nominee for that post in 1998, but had come in second behind Jesse Ventura).
Apparently then-Vice President Dick Cheney felt that Coleman would be a stronger opponent to Wellstone, so he called Pawlenty and “asked” him to switch to the governor’s race so that Coleman could run for senator. That phone call may have changed more American history than it did Minnesota history. As it turned out, Coleman defeated Walter Mondale, a last-minute substitute for Wellstone who had tragically died in an airplane accident only a few days before election day. Pawlenty won a close contest for the GOP nomination and went on to win the governor’s race by a plurality when the Independence Party (IP), as it had in 1998, drained votes from the Democratic (in this state, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party or DFL) nominee. In 2006, Pawlenty again narrowly won a plurality re-election when the IP again nominated a credible candidate.
Like Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann first drew public attention as a very conservative member of the state legislature (she was a state senator). A former tax attorney, mother of five (and foster mother of additional 23 children), Bachmann was always a conservative lightning rod in her eastern suburban Twin Cities district. The local media, typically liberal, found her early to be a favorite target, with a focus on her frequent verbal flubs (while, of course, ignoring the flubs of liberal legislators). In 2006, she decided to run for Congress, and won.
When each of them first came to my attention, I would not have even suggested that either of them might become serious presidential candidates. But Pawlenty had certain skills, specifically the ability to explain complex political issues in a way that ordinary voters could understand. Bachmann, on the other hand, seemed more interested in gaining public attention around provocative social issues, and this enabled her critics and most in the media to portray her as “light.” Nontheless, her base in the 6th congressional district remained quite loyal, and when she made a major blunder on national TV in 2008 just before the election, she still managed to survive. In 2010, the DFL opponent raised more than $4 million to defeat he, but didn’t really come close. Mrs. Bachmann seemed secure in her district, and likely to remain there.
After the 2008 election, Mrs. Bachmann formed a friendship with Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee. In 2010, Bachmann brought in Mrs. Palin for a fundraiser in Minneapolis, and, with both of them on the stage at the same time, I saw for the first time clearly that Mrs. Bachmann could match Mrs. Palin for charisma and excitement among conservative voters.
Speaking honestly, even then I did not see Michele Bachmann as a national figure, and when she indicated she might run for president in early 2011, I ranked her as a third tier candidate. She also then seemed to focus only on sensational social conservative issues, and sounded a bit shrill in her speeches. Her rise now to be a first tier contender happened almost suddenly as it became likely Mrs. Palin would not run in 2012, and conservative icons such as Mike Huckabee also would not run.
The question is then: Is there something different about the “new” Michele Bachmann? I’m certain she and her long-time supporters would argue she is the same as she was before, but I would suggest that, as sometimes happens when a political figure thrusts themself, or is thrust, on the national electoral stage, Michele Bachmann is showing off a new or expanded image of herself. Her speeches recently have lost most of the earlier shrillness, and particularly in her new video about the Middle East and in her kick-off announcement in her home town of Waterloo, Iowa, her words seem less sensational and more inspirational. There is also now no question she has a national base, although it remains to be seen if that base will turn out in the primary and caucus voting.
A recent minor flub about John Wayne’s home town received its usual mega-attention in the Old Media, but now this attention seems petty, especially since the Old Media totally ignores similar or worse flubs by President Obama and Vice President Biden, who makes them routinely. (On the other hand, Mrs. Bachmann might be well-served from now on to have her own fact-checker for her speeches.)
So when my media friends in DC asked me what I thought of the Bachmann candidacy, I answered that she was now a serious contender, but that the degree of her impact will be revealed ahead. Former Governor Pawlenty still has by far the larger, and more professional, campaign in Iowa, and in spite of his media-ballyhooed blunder in the New Hampshire TV debate, has personal and political resources that could easily put him again as Mr. Romney’s major challenger. Yet Mrs. Bachmann is the one attracting early more formidable poll numbers, campaign cash raised, and excitement in her home state. Mr. Pawlenty must somehow overcome this by the time of the Iowa Caucuses in January because if Mrs. Bachmann significantly outpolls him there, his campaign could be real trouble.
Liberal Democrats love to hate Mrs. Bachmann, and to single her out as a “right wing nut.” The Old Media is obsessed with making fun of her, and incessantly tries to marginalize her, but something is up with her candidacy right now, and her opponents ridicule and underestimate her at their peril.
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-Please visit Mr. Cassleman’s personal site.
June 29th, 2011 at 8:52 am
“Her opponents ridicule and underestimate her at their peril.”
…Well..count me as one of those..I guess.
I would not want Bachmann walking my dog…much less be President.
I saw Michele dancing on stage yesterday in New Hampshire…..I turned to my wife, who at the time was watching TV with me, eating some stew, and laughing at Bachmann….
…I got angry.
Very angry.
This is not funny anymore.
Bachmann has done no heavy lifting in the party.
Bachmann is an attention %hore…and a flake of the highest measure.
Bachammn has never led the fight in the US Congress on anything…….anything!!!
The GOP won’t put a gavel in her hand….for any committee….for any reason!!!!!!
Reject Pawlenty?…..ok…fine…..do what you want GOP voters.
Elect Bachmann?
HELL NO!!!
This country is sinking and Iowans are going to vote for a Congreswoman who has done nothing but make gaffe after gaffe…?
I WILL NOT GO QUIETLY INTO THAT GOOD NIGHT!!
Sorry for the ramblings of a crazed Smackdaddy…….but this is not funny anymore.
It’s not.
June 29th, 2011 at 8:53 am
I guess I like her, but she’s coming from the House and not the Senate, Governorship, nor VP position.
When does either party nominate someone like that?
June 29th, 2011 at 9:01 am
I live in Buffalo, MN. A town which sits on the Western part of the 6th District…Bachmann’s district.
Bachmann always under performs in her district during election time, because there are many GOP voters who will not vote for her……me included.
My neighbors consist of business owners like myself, nurses, two Police officers, construction worker, and a retired railroad exec.
Not one of them is a Democrat……..all of them, but one, consider Bachmann to be a complete sideshow.
We used to laugh at her…..now the nation is taking her seriously?
Iowans are taking Bachmann seriously?
So now we live in the age where results…achievements do not matter?
Because Bachmann has done nothing…just like Obama when he was Senator.
This is not funny anymore.
It’s not.
June 29th, 2011 at 9:15 am
In the SurveyUSA poll that was mentioned last week here on RACE42012.
Pawlenty and Obama were tied at 46% in Minnesota.
Bachmann was 16 points behind Obama in Minnesota.
——————————————————————————————————————
Think about it……….just think about it Iowans.
Time for choosing is close at hand.
For those who know Bachmann the best……………ppffffffffttt.
June 29th, 2011 at 9:19 am
Dear Honorable Governor Sarah Palin,
June 29th, 2011 at 9:24 am
Dear Honorable Governor Sarah Palin,
I have one vital request to ask of you.
You must save the Nation from Bachmann.
Please…either get in the race, or endorse a candidate other then Bachmann.
The Nation needs you…….needs you to stop Bachmann.
You can not sit on the sideline anymore. Make your TEA PARTY voice heard. Stop the nutjob Bachmann!!!
Sincerly,
Smackdaddy
A PROUD TPAW TORCH
June 29th, 2011 at 9:30 am
Michelle Bachmann has too many flaky things in her past to ever become a threat. Things such as banning Aladdin because it has witchcraft to comparing gays to Satan.
Interesting that she calls Palin a friend. We saw how Bachmann bristled when she talked about being called a unserious candidate. Yet Rollins made the same charge about Palin and another staffer suggested she was mentally unstable. If you want to do it on the basis of issues then that’s fine. Even her resignation is fair game. What was Bachmann’s response? A statement from her office that probably wasn’t even written by her.
June 29th, 2011 at 9:52 am
“Please…either get in the race, or endorse a candidate other then Bachmann.” Which candidate might that be?
June 29th, 2011 at 9:52 am
Bachmann hasn’t faced much scrutiny, yet. It going to take time. I’m a Pawlenty supporter, but I’m willing to let the process work. I am concerned that people are looking more at personality than accomplishments and substance. Pundits seem to choose our candidate for us, which is really sad. I don’t know how we overcome that obstacle.
June 29th, 2011 at 9:57 am
Misogyny
June 29th, 2011 at 10:12 am
I’m a Pawlenty supporter, too, and it hurts a lot to see Bachmann getting all the attention this week. Or, the media are intent on talking about Rick Perry, all the while ignoring Tim’s terrific speech yesterday on foreign policy, addressing the CFR in New York.
Perhaps all the hoopla is because she’s the latest entrant and is well known in the tea party movement. There’s no question she can excite a crowd, but there has to be more. I like her as a Congresswoman, never missing an opportunity to attack the administration and the liberals’ agenda. But, I don’t recall any legislation she’s introduced that actually passed. Congress is where there’s so much that needs to be done to clean up years’ worth of bad laws, so what has she done to advance her various causes? I know she introduced a bill to reverse the ban on incandescent lightbulbs, but what happened to that? Did it die in committee? Has she re-introduced it yet? If she’s such a fighter, what has she really accomplished to move the country toward her own agenda? Or, is she just too much about her own spotlight? I do believe she will be subjected to a lot of scrutiny, but I hope that is based solely on her record and not on whether she is gaffe-prone or shrill. We definitely do not need another good speech maker who wants to fix things but with little or no experience at doing it.
Tim has a good, solid conservative record as a 2-term governor in that liberal state. He has a right to be proud of his accomplishments.
June 29th, 2011 at 10:22 am
“Pundits seem to choose our candidate for us, which is really sad. I don’t know how we overcome that obstacle.”
EXACTLY.
People are SHEEP!!! They trust Andrea Tantaros, Bill Kristol, Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, and Michelle Malkin more than they should!!!
This is how Obama got elected in 2008. Since he was considered a “serious” candidate by the media, he was considered “qualified” by the voters. They TRUSTED the media!
And NOW, it has become clear that the Conservative Media wants to swindle the voters. People need to WAKE UP. These are CRUCIAL TIMES for our nation! We CANNOT AFFORD THE RISK OF NOMINATING BACHMANN.
Now, I don’t think she’ll get the nomination, because I think there are too many voters who share my concerns.
Anyway, let Bachmann win IA. Romney will wipe the floor with her elsewhere.
And he will FIX OUR MESS in Washington.
June 29th, 2011 at 10:43 am
I really think Bachmann is nothing more than the flavor of the month. I actually line up with Smackdaddy on this. Bachmann would be a flaming disaster as the nominee. Being in WA and not really following her career closely I had a favorable opinion of her. The more I learn about her, the more I dislike her.
I want the primary process to be a serious contest between serious candidates. I really wish Pawlenty could gain traction. Other than a possible Perry entry, I view Romney and Pawlenty as the only serious candidates in the race. Everyone else is either a vanity candidate or a crackpot. This includes those still to announce.
June 29th, 2011 at 11:19 am
“And he will FIX OUR MESS in Washington.”
=============================================
Right,like he “fixed” Taxachusetts,#47 in jobs creation,#1 in cost of
health care insurance premiums and #1 in cost of health care in the nation.
Thanks Willard for Romneycare,brilliant socialist idea.When you signed it
into law and had a great laugh with your friend Ted Kennedy doing it, this is what you said:
“We got everything we wanted,ha,ha,ha….”
Rombots,isn’t Willard wonderful?
June 29th, 2011 at 11:23 am
13.
If the media were picking the Republican candidate it would probably be Huntsman. Most of them have been drooling all over themselves since the rumor surfaced he was going to run. Now that he has actually announced we shall see how well he holds up to the primary process and voters.
June 29th, 2011 at 11:31 am
14
TEX, you have absolutely NO CLUE what you are attempting to talk about.
When Mitt took over as governor, Massachusetts was in recession. It was losing tens of thousands of jobs a month.
The budget deficit was $3 Billion PROJECTED his first year. He closed it without raising taxes. He cut more government jobs than any other governor in Massachusetts history.
The fact is, Mitt brought Massachusetts back from the brink.
Sorry to break the truth to you.
June 29th, 2011 at 11:38 am
“He closed it without raising taxes.”
===============================================
Willard called taxes “fees”.
June 29th, 2011 at 11:38 am
Bachmann is probably the closest thing we have to Barack Obama on our side. Interesting personal narrative that throws off all the right cultural cues, good speaker, throws out the red meat, excites the base, almost no experience and zero accomplishments.
June 29th, 2011 at 11:52 am
Massachusetts…………..#47 in jobs creation under Romney.
RomneyCare=Blueprint for ObamaCare=
HIGHEST HEALTH CARE INSURANCE PRIMIUMS IN THE NATION!!!
Pay attention:Not next to the highest,or #23 or #37 or….
No,it’s the #1.
HIGHEST HEALTH CARE COST IN THE NATION!!!
This is mr “fix it”,mr businessman record.
Sarah Palin will expose it and compare it with her superb record
as Governor of Alaska.
June 29th, 2011 at 12:08 pm
19
Massachusetts consistently had unemployment below the national average during Mitt’s tenure. It’s pretty hard to grow jobs when everyone has a job!
June 29th, 2011 at 12:09 pm
19
Massachusetts health costs were highest in the nation before Romneycare, and highest after Romneycare.
There is no cause-and-effect relationship here.
Massachusetts health care has ALWAYS cost the most because it is the BEST.
June 29th, 2011 at 1:00 pm
If Michele Bachmann were male, she would be a laughing-stock. The only reason she is getting attention from the right is because of her …. sparkle.
SJR
The Pink Flamingo
June 29th, 2011 at 1:11 pm
“sparkle.”
I like that.
June 29th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
She is a joke and why should we be so scared in this country to not call a joke a joke?
June 30th, 2011 at 5:12 am
I am still a Romney supporter, but it is frustrating to see Pawlenty not getting better respect. I think some people including talk radio want firebrand speech instead of pragmatic accomplishments. Even though Pawlenty is the biggest threat to Romney I hope he does well. If he doesnt that says something bad about the direction we are going in political discourse.