With the fundraising quarter set to end in a week and the totals for the GOP hopefuls set to be made public shortly after, the rumors and leaks are about to start flying with regards to who raised what and who outraised whom. So before we hear anything, here’s your chance to play Nostradamus: what will the second quarter fundraising totals be?
For what it’s worth, here are my predictions at this moment:
The filing deadline is on July 15, but most campaigns either file before that date or release their totals prior to filing.
June 22nd, 2011 at 3:29 pm
FYI – Huntsman hauled in $1.2 million in his first fundraising dinner last night after his announcement. He has another similar event in South Carolina tonight, three more in Florida tomorrow, and one in Utah on Friday.
June 22nd, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Romney – $60 million
Pawlenty – $2.5 million
Huntsman – $3 million
Paul – $4 million
Cain – $1 million
Bachmann – $6 million
Gingrich – $1.5 million
Santorum – $0.5 million
Johnson – $0.2 million
June 22nd, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Romney 37.5
Hunstman 10.2
Tpaw-6.5
Buchmann-5.5
Paul-5.3
Cain 4.8
Johnson 1.2
Rick- 800k
June 22nd, 2011 at 3:43 pm
My guess is this…
Romney 45 million
Bachmann 7 million
Paul 6 million
Pawlenty 5 million
Huntsman 5 million
Gingrich 3 million
Cain 2.5 million
Santorum 800K
Johnson 500K
The rent is too damn high party candidate $320.86
June 22nd, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Matt Coulter Says:
June 22nd, 2011 at 3:29 pm
FYI – Huntsman hauled in $1.2 million in his first fundraising dinner last night after his announcement. He has another similar event in South Carolina tonight, three more in Florida tomorrow, and one in Utah on Friday.
===============================
Why is he running??? He doesn’t stand a chance. IMHO.
June 22nd, 2011 at 3:45 pm
Doesnt it say quite a bit that not only does Romney do better in many key states against Obama (NV, CO, FL, OH, Mich, NH, etc), and not only does he best his GOP competitors in nearly every national and state poll…
He is also the only guy that can raise the dough we need to beat Obama. Obama will raise 50 million in 2Q I think.
June 22nd, 2011 at 3:46 pm
you ought to put Obama’s projected totals on your list too. I’m curious as to what he will raise and whether Romney will best his numbers.
June 22nd, 2011 at 3:52 pm
I think Huntsman will hit $8 million, with a strong possibility of coming in over $10 million.
Then again, I’m biased, given that some of my money will be included in that total.
June 22nd, 2011 at 3:55 pm
Romney – $38 million
Paul – $8 million
Pawlenty – $7 million
Huntsman – $7 million
Bachmann – $4 million
Cain – $1 million
Gingrich – $1million
Santorum – $1 million
Johnson – $0.3 million
Obama – $45 million
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:02 pm
Romney – $55M ($10 in one day – a couple of state fundraising trips of $8M each + many more sizeable trips
Bachman – $8M
Paul – $8M
Huntsman – $7M
Pawlenty – $7M
Cain – $5M
Gingrich – $2.5M
Santorum – < $1M
It could get ugly in comparison
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:05 pm
Giving your money to a candidate other than Romney is giving your money to Obama.
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:07 pm
This is a marathon. Bachmann may well LOOK like Mitt”s no 1 competitor for the rest of 2011, but come 2012 it will be Perry (and/or Jon if Perry falters).
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:11 pm
Romney – $65 million+
Yawnplenty – $2.5 million
Huntsman – $5 million
Paul – $7 million
Cain – $3 million
Bachmann – $6 million
Gingrich – $1.5 million
Santorum – $2 million
Johnson – $0.6 million
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:11 pm
I can’t decide whether Bachmann is another Cain-style Tea Party flash-in-the-pan, or a real competitor. I really find her beliefs astonishingly bizarre, but she’s well-educated, hard-working, and disciplined, and has the stuff to run a strong campaign. I also think her fundraising is going to be strong–this is, after all, the woman who brought in *$13 million* for ONE CYCLE as a House member. That’s incredible.
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:15 pm
Not sure number-wise who’s going to get what, but here are some general ideas:
1.) Romney easily blows everyone away in fundraising, which helps erase whatever questions remain about his front-runner status.
2.) Pawlenty’s numbers are anemic, helping to compound the “he’s in trouble” meme going around.
3.) Bachmann’s number is impressive and will be contributed to her strong debate performance.
4.) Huntsman’s number is good, not uber-great, but he’ll be slobbered on by the media, his chief constituency.
5.) President Obama will have raised a ton of money, which will be used to show Democrat “enthusiasm” vs. Republican “dissastisfaction.”
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:16 pm
Isn’t it amazing how Sarah Palin has completely dropped off the radar following her short-lived bus tour? Every time she opens her mouth she seems to be despised even more.
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:19 pm
Romney – $43M
Huntsman – $7M
TPAW – $6.5M
Bachmann – $5.5M
Paul – $5.3M
Cain – $4M
Gingrich – $2.5M
Santorum – $750k
Johnson – $700k
Buddy Roemer – $285
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:30 pm
Romney $32m
Ron Paul 12m
Bachmann 10m
Pawlenty 9m
Cain 7m
Huntsman Jr. 6m
Gingrich 3m
Santorum 2.5m
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:34 pm
Will SpongeBob Squarepants’ totals include the latest extended credit line at Tiffany’s? If so, watch out Mitt!
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:34 pm
Romney – $52M
Pawlenty – $6M
Huntsman – $7M
Bachmann – $4M
Paul – $8M
Cain – $5M
Gingrich – $1.2M
Santorum – $1.2M
Johnson – $0.4M
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:34 pm
15. That’s just you.
Palin has cancelled her trip to Sudan.
(she’s going to be busy)
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:36 pm
Anthing less than $300 million and Mitt should just drop out.
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:37 pm
My guess?
Romney 40 million
Paul 8 million
Huntsman 6 million
Bachmann 4 million
Pawlenty 4 million
Cain 3 million
Gingrich 2 million
Johnson 1 million
Santorum 1 million
Moore 500K
Roemer 150K
Jimmy McMillan 5 and a Kit Kat bar
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:38 pm
21. True. Gold-plating his own personal campaign air fleet with “Office of the President-Elect” logos will be expensive.
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:39 pm
I think we may be setting expectations a little high for Romney. Even my $52M is probably optimistic. In Q2 of 2007, Giuliani led with $17.5 and Romney got second with $14.3. Then again, Obama raised $33 in Q2 of 2007 as a new comer, which was probably the result of higher levels of Democrat enthusiasm.
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:40 pm
#21:
Aren’t you low-balling Romney’s numbers a bit Matt?
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:40 pm
Do you all remember when OL SMACKAROO told you that there would soonbe stories written about Bachmann not doing what needs to be done in Iowa to win the Straw poll?
Well…read below.
On the ground, Bachmann is weak in Iowa.
Bachmann will be in 2nd place in the polls in Iowa and other places, but she is not as strong as the pundits are making her out to seem.
Bachmann will have good fundraising numbers for sure…but…but……her organizational skills are horrible.
Bachmann has a 3rd rate team in Iowa, and a 4th rate team nationwide.
Bachmann will have very little in endorsements, and zero establishment help.
Let Bachmann be the favorite in Iowa…….better for TPAW when he wins it.
Read Below:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110622/ap_on_el_pr/us_bachmann2012_4
Some county-level Republican leaders said they have seen little evidence of outreach by Bachmann at a time when other candidates have dispatched staff to their monthly meetings.
“I haven’t seen or heard anything out of the Bachmann camp I haven’t initiated,” said Ann Trimble-Ray, party chairwoman in GOP-heavy Sac County.
Veteran Iowa GOP operatives unaffiliated with any of the campaigns, such as Grant Young of Des Moines, wonder why Bachmann’s Iowa campaign director, Kent Sorenson, flew to New Hampshire for the June 13 debate. Bachmann would have been better served keeping Sorenson in Iowa, where he could point activists to the rave reviews she received for her performance, he said.
Later that week, Bachmann also had no campaign staff at a deficit conference in Des Moines attended by roughly 1,000 fiscal conservatives.
“The key to a caucus campaign is getting the candidate in front of people, snagging their names and asking them what they thought,” said Young, an Iowa Republican organizer for George W. Bush’s 2000 caucus campaign and John McCain’s campaign in 2008. “She had a good debate performance and nothing in place to catch it.”
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:40 pm
I think $40M is more reasonable, but still optimistic.
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:41 pm
Mark in PA,
Do you really think the Doublemint Twins will be the top two fundraisers?
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:43 pm
Yesterday I saw my very first 2012 sign in someone’s yard. I was driving through the working class side of town. It was “Cain 2012.”
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:44 pm
SMACK PREDICTIONS:
Romney 48 million
Paul 11 million
Pawlenty 7.5 million………very low cash on hand……..:(
Huntsman 6.5 million
Bachmann 6.5 million
Cain 2.6 million
Gingrich 2.1 million
Santorum 1.5 million
Johnson 1 million
June 22nd, 2011 at 4:49 pm
My predictions:
Romney $1.28753 billion
Paul $8 million
Pawlenty $6 million
Bachmann $6 million
Cain $2.5 million
Huntsman $2.5 million
Gingrich, Santorum, and Johnson < $1 million each.
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:01 pm
26. Palin has a much better team on the ground in Iowa than Bachmann does, although I have heard rumors Romney has released his Iowa contingent to help Bachmann for Ames.
That only makes sense.
MWS has his finger on the pulse of fund raising.
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:02 pm
I find this oddly specific. And surely too modest. As everyone knows, you want to raise expectations as much as possible because it encourages reluctant investors to cough up all they’ve got. Just ask Madoff.
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:04 pm
Matt,
Do you think Mitt could apply his 2Q fundrasing numbers (1.7 trillion) so that we can balance this years budget?
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:06 pm
I think you’re lowballing Bachmann, I think her haul will be $7m +
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:08 pm
35. And that’s just from government subsidies…
http://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wordpress.com/2011/06/22/michele-bachmann-queen-of-pork/
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:08 pm
My predictions:
Romney – $48M
Pawlenty – $9M
Huntsman – $6M
Bachmann – $6M
Paul – $5M
Gingrich – $4M
Cain – $3M
Santorum – $2M
Johnson – $800K
Moore – $300K
McMillan – $34K
Palin – $0
Giuliani – $0
Perry – $0
McCotter – $0
Bolton – $0
Pataki – $0
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:12 pm
Heck, I’m still waiting to see Palin’s PAC’s 1st QTR numbers…
I think they will be released by July 15th?
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:15 pm
38
Doesn’t matter since they cannot be transferred to a presidential campaign (or Exploratory Committee). She would need an Exploratory Committee to transfer funds.
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:19 pm
Michele Bachmann wanted to cut $4.5 billion from the Veterans Administration.
But.
She wrote a letter praising Tom Vilsac for direct government purchases of pork and milk products (over $100 million) to help dairy and pig producers…
Oh, yeah, she has a dairy farm in Wisconsin…so…
What a fraud.
At least she’s keeping me safe from the gay people.
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:20 pm
39. yes Mass. Confusion, I know how it works.
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:20 pm
Bachmann kicks off her campaign in Waterloo Iowa next Monday.
Bachmann is doing 1 event in Iowa….1 event in New Hamsphire………5 events in South Carolina.
Are you guys getting the picture yet?…I know teledude has it figured out.
Bachmann polls numbers will be great in Iowa for the next month…..but she hasn’t been playing Iowa for the win.
Bachmann knows that TPAW will catch her at the end of the process in Iowa.
The stories are coming out…just like OL SMACKAROO told you they would….Bachmann is slowly pissing off Iowa.
Read below:
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/06/22/bachmann-to-bet-heavily-on-south-carolina/?mod=WSJBlog&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:28 pm
Romney – $48 million
Paul – $10 million
Huntsman – $7 million
Pawlenty – $6.5 million
Bachmann – $4.5 million
Gingrich – $3 million
Cain – $1.5 million
Santorum – $1 million
Johnson – $0.5 million
Obama – $55 million
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:30 pm
Romney – $42 million
Bachmann – $10 million
Huntsman – $10 million
Pawlenty – $9 million
Paul – $7 million
Cain – $6 million
Gingrich – $2 million
Santorum – $ 1 million
Johnson – $0.8 million
June 22nd, 2011 at 5:39 pm
husky,
“Do you think Mitt could apply his 2Q fundrasing numbers (1.7 trillion) so that we can balance this years budget?”
I think Mitt would do that in exchange for immediate control of the Presidency.
June 22nd, 2011 at 6:13 pm
Here are the averages for the 15 guesses through #44.
Romney – 46.9
Paul – 7.6
Pawlenty – 6.4
Huntsman – 6.1
Bachmann – 6.1
Cain – 3.5
Gingrich – 2.3
Santorum – 1.2
Johnson – 0.6
Obama – 50
June 22nd, 2011 at 6:18 pm
Huntsman will get lots of money but he really, in his heart of hearts wants to be VP to Obama.
June 22nd, 2011 at 6:21 pm
#47 – Oh sure, leave me out of the loop.
June 22nd, 2011 at 6:35 pm
I’m sorry GetReal. I misspoke. I included your numbers, I just wrote down the wrong comment #.
June 22nd, 2011 at 6:36 pm
Interesting that no one thinks anyone but Mitt will raise over $10M. There were three candidates over $10M in Q2 of 2007. No one else was even relevant.
Another way of looking at it is that Mitt raised $36M total by this time in 2007 (combining the first two quarters). He will certainly beat that number, I believe.
June 22nd, 2011 at 6:39 pm
McCain had raised $26M total in Q1 and Q2, so if Pawlenty is really that low and has no cash in hand, he is in pretty bad shape. Worse shape than McCain was in. The others are in a similarly sparse situation, but they don’t have as large of an organization to support as TPaw does. Huntsman has a pretty expensive organization to support as well, and he will only have a week to raise money this quarter.
June 22nd, 2011 at 6:41 pm
#47: In other words, Romney raises more money than the rest of the field combined, Obama raises more than Romney, but the Republican field raises more than Obama.
June 22nd, 2011 at 6:43 pm
I read something a couple weeks back that the Obama machine wasn’t having the success raising money that they had expected. So, maybe they’ll only raise half a billion.
June 22nd, 2011 at 7:02 pm
Romney – $34 million
Huntsman – $9 million
Pawlenty – $8 million
Paul – $8 million
Bachmann – $5 million
Cain – $3 million
June 22nd, 2011 at 7:15 pm
Rombots,
Are you sure you want to brag about Wall Street bankers,the same corrupt
characters that stole trillions from Main Street and ruined the country,
are giving 10′s of millions to Mitt?
They are throwing millions at Willard for what?
To buy favors maybe?
June 22nd, 2011 at 7:17 pm
Romney – $51 million
Pawlenty – $9.5 million
Huntsman – $6 million
Paul – $5 million
Cain – $2 million
Bachmann – $7 million
Gingrich – $1.5 million
Santorum – $1.2 million
Johnson – $0.3 million
June 22nd, 2011 at 7:22 pm
It will be spectacle when Sarah Palin shreds Mittens to pieces and his
Wall Street fat cats and his part in Crony Capitalism with them.
June 22nd, 2011 at 7:38 pm
Get a life Tex — seriously! Palin only speaks through Fox News — only friendly fire. She refuses to speak to another other media outlets. She’s a coward and simply will not attack Mitt on anything effectively. If she does start attacking — nobody will be able to get her message due to her shrieking and shrill voice.
June 22nd, 2011 at 8:32 pm
I hate these projections.
I have no expectations beyond the 10 million he pulled in that one day. That is likely more than some of them scored in the whole quarter, but no matter I’m sure Romney will not meet expectations.
June 22nd, 2011 at 8:53 pm
Can you imagine Sarah Palin on a jury? Wow.
June 22nd, 2011 at 8:54 pm
61. Sarah again propping herself up about the overexaggeration of the media. I wouldn’t be surprised that she put it out there to make them look stupid which I’m okay with but at the same time you’re toying with these poor Palinites who wanna know what’s really going on. Good ol’ Sarah…
June 22nd, 2011 at 8:58 pm
You can only go so far before you have to jump in the fire eventually and they will not be so friendly with her antics. I’m not saying she needs to cower, I’m just saying you better be ready for the fire when it comes time. The nana nana boo boos now are either gonna make you or break you. I hope it’s the former for her sake.
June 22nd, 2011 at 9:10 pm
Mitt Rockefeller Romney made his money with LBO takeovers’
LBO takeovers in 1980” was corrupt operation in most cases,but not all.
You don’t see them anymore since early 1990?s when it was made criminal
to bribe managements with “Golden Parachutes”.
People with Wall Street bankers connections approach the management with
some kind of problems,bribe them with millions of dollars in “Golden
Parachutes” and get 100?s of millions of dollars in company assets
for pennies on a dollar,companies that other people created and developed.
That’s it!The ultimate corrupt Crony Capitalism!
LBOs stopped long time ago.Mitt Romney made few hundred millions,his
bankers friends probably made much more.
Some LBO “artists” made billions.
They were all “business geniuses”.
June 22nd, 2011 at 9:13 pm
59. That’s just wrong dude.
On her bus tour she gave 17 interviews in four days.
She is contractually prohibited from appearing on other networks, but if any reporters wanted to go up to Alaska, she has nothing to hide.
In fact she did a long interview with ABC last year.
June 22nd, 2011 at 9:17 pm
62. “Can you imagine Sarah Palin on a jury? Wow.”
Yes, I can.
I can imagine her as an experienced executive as well.
It is you who seems to lack imagination, perhaps because you have fallen for a groupthink false narrative. Don’t do that.
It just reflects poorly on you.
I’m just here to help.
June 22nd, 2011 at 9:20 pm
Reactions sfter Obama’s speech
Tim Pawlenty:
I thought his speech was deeply concerning. Look how he phrased the outcome of this war. He said we need to end the war, quote unquote, responsibly. When America goes to war, America needs to win. We need to close out the war successfully, and what that means now is not nation-building. What it means is to follow General Petraeus’s advice and to get those security forces built up where they can pick up the slack as we draw down.
I supported the surge, and I would have supported it even at a higher level as General McChrystal recommended. I supported President Obama’s decision to surge even at the levels that he did, but it shows you a window in his thinking on the very night that he announced the surge, he very quickly announced a deadline for withdrawal.
Mitt Romney:
“We all want our troops to come home as soon as possible, but we shouldn’t adhere to an arbitrary timetable on the withdrawal of our troops from Afghanistan. This decision should not be based on politics or economics. America’s brave men and women in uniform have fought to achieve significant progress in Afghanistan, some having paid the ultimate price. I look forward to hearing the testimony of our military commanders in the days ahead.”
Stephen Hayes rips on Mitt’s weak statement:
Yep MT @stephenfhayes: Non-statement fm@MittRomney is a copout. Was it a political decision? Does it jeopardize our progress? Is it wise?
June 22nd, 2011 at 10:03 pm
I just can’t stop smiling
June 22nd, 2011 at 10:15 pm
Romney – $51M
Huntsman – $13M
Pawlenty – $11M
Bachmann – $9M
Paul – $6.5M
Santorum – $4M
Gingrich – $3M
Cain – $2M
Johnson – $800K
Moore – $300K
June 22nd, 2011 at 10:23 pm
Ok… the fundraising predictions for Mitt range from $37.5 Million to $1.7 Trillion. Let’s try to form some consensus here please.
He raised $10.25 million in one day. The next day he raised $2M. He raised $2M at at least a few other fundraisers. That’s $20 million we are SURE of.
Then there were at least 20 other fundraisers. Some small, some large. Some cost $2500 to get in, others $100. Internet donations too.
I think it’s going to be somewhere between $30 million and $50 million
June 22nd, 2011 at 10:41 pm
Romney–35.6 M
Trump–1,220 B but immediately bought a building in Dubai made of solid Gold Buillon
Paul–Refuses to report because the rules about reporting are unconstitutional
Palin–2 M, but spent it on gas for that mega bus!
Bachmann–3 M, but no cash on hand, cause she’s got 23 foster mouths to feed.
Newt–Noone knows cause his finance guy took all the calculators
Johnson–1M, but bought 67 Kilos of Cannabis
June 22nd, 2011 at 10:53 pm
teledude…
Nowhere in my original comment of “Can you imagine Sarah Palin on a jury? Wow.” does it state anything positive or negative about Mrs. Palin.
Nor did I state that I could not imagine Mrs. Palin on a jury. The outside of that court room would be a media CIRCUS with a capital “C.” I’m afraid you may have bought into the reflexive defensive stance hysteria that exists as groupthink surrounding those who support Mrs. Palin.
June 22nd, 2011 at 11:02 pm
73. sorry ogrepete…I was basing that off some of your other, earlier comments in regards to Governor Palin from days past.
You’re absolutely right, I apologize if I’ve inferred something you were not implying.
Although I’m still somewhat skeptical…
June 22nd, 2011 at 11:22 pm
ogrepete,
You are correct.There would be many TV trucks around the blocks camping overnight to get as close as possible,absolute mayhem.
June 23rd, 2011 at 1:57 am
TEX: How did the press find out about the original tweet that Palin’s bus tour was cancelled? Didn’t she tweet that and FOX picked it up?
If that’s the way it happened, why did she wait so long to clear up why she was cancelling her tour and just tell her supporters what was going on in the first place? Why the tease?
I think Palin created this controversy….and if she did, why do her supporters put up with that?
June 23rd, 2011 at 2:23 am
Has anyone else seen this? Romney is beating Pawlenty and Bachmann in Minn.
Poll done by SurveyUSA
http://kaaltv.com/article/stories/S2168863.shtml?cat=10151
June 23rd, 2011 at 2:25 am
76. It’s called Palinitis. It’s similar to Obamaitis circa 2007.
June 23rd, 2011 at 3:36 am
It’s a bit early! Like 3 weeks too early.
But I love predictions and contrary to popular belief I believe I won the WSJ comp.
Most of these predictions are way too high guys. Here goes.
Romney – $36M
Huntsman – $9M (he will be the big story despite Romney 4 timesing him!)
Pawlenty – $8M
Bachmann – $7M
Paul – $6M
Gingrich – $3M
Cain – $2M
Santorum – $1.5M
Johnson – $400K
Moore – $200K
June 23rd, 2011 at 8:26 am
Pawlenty’s top staffers are working for free. As we suspected, TPAW’s fundraising has dried up.
June 23rd, 2011 at 8:59 am
76 LV
You confirmed for umpteenth time that you are not playing with the full deck.
Sarah Palin never canceled her bus tour via tweet or any other way.
She refudiated!
Stick your head in ice water,you might make more sense.
June 23rd, 2011 at 9:05 am
Maybe Sarah can talk the judge into letting a camera crew come in and turn the trial into a reality show showcasing her as the foreman of the jury and how the mama bear night fox ultimate hero she-ra baracuda took on the entire corupt judicial system and cleaned it up in one trial.
It’s a money maker for sure. She can pull up to the court house with her whole family in the bus and give a speech before she goes in to jury selection.
June 24th, 2011 at 9:13 am
[...] you have it. Anyone care to update their guesses from a couple days ago? by Matt Coulter @ 9:13 am. Filed under Fundraising [Comments [...]
June 24th, 2011 at 9:39 am
My revised predictions:
Romney – $38M
Huntsman – Won’t report
Paul – $8M
Bachmann – $5M
Pawlenty – $5M
Cain – $4M
Santorum – $1M
Gingrich – $1M
Johnson – $500k