Gallup Republican National Primary
- Romney – 24 (17)
- Palin – 16% (17)
- Cain – 9% (8)
- Paul – 7% (10)
- Pawlenty – 6% (6)
- Santorum – 6% (2)
- Bachmann – 5% (5)
- Gingrich – 5% (9)
- Johnson – 2% (2)
- Huntsman – 1% (2)
- Other / No Opinion – 18% (22)
Without Palin:
- Romney – 27% (19)
- Cain – 10% (8)
- Gingrich – 9% (12)
- Paul – 9% (12)
- Bachmann – 7% (7)
- Pawlenty – 6% (7)
- Santorum – 6% (2)
- Johnson – 2% (2)
- Huntsman – 2% (3)
- Other / No Opinion – 21% (25)
Survey of 851 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted June 8-11. Numbers in parentheses are from Gallup’s previous poll which ended May 24.
This would be the first poll that is entirely post-Pawlenty’s economic announcement, and two and a half of the four days of polling was after Gingrich’s staff quit.
June 13th, 2011 at 7:36 am
CNN has more good news for Romney supporters.
Rudy fans may want to think twice…..
http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/06/romney-romps-on-rudy-ousts-mayor-as.html
June 13th, 2011 at 7:45 am
T-Paw has peaked too early…
June 13th, 2011 at 7:46 am
Odd that Gingrich soars when Palin is out of the equation. Name-ID, anyone?
June 13th, 2011 at 7:56 am
lol at Pawlenty. Tied with Santorum.
June 13th, 2011 at 8:17 am
This poll says quite a bit and also leaves alot to question. If Rudy gets in he immediately takes any and all indys that were leaning towards Mitt or Huntsman as well as a large group that vote on name recognition. What will also be interesting is what happens when Newt drops out, probably sometime shortly after a 6th or worse placing in Aimes. What I am very interested in is the Santorum jump. I think this shows the fact that a large chunk of conservatives still are looking for their socon to vote for. Santorum is not well known, has low name recognition, and yet he is polling at much at TPAW and within 1 of Paul?! If Perry gets in he is going to knock out Santorum, Bachmann, and Gingrich and grab those few Paul supporters who choose him for his strong stance against abortion. Cant wait to see what this thing looks like in August after Aimes…..and then in September when Huckabee gets back in
June 13th, 2011 at 8:18 am
Whoa, Santorum shows signs of life.
June 13th, 2011 at 8:27 am
Wonder where Santorum’s ceiling is? Where he sops up all the conservative Catholic votes? That’d be my guess.
June 13th, 2011 at 8:35 am
ROMNEY SURGE
June 13th, 2011 at 8:37 am
Good job Rickster!
The poll shows more of the same.
Gingrich under performing NAME ID…..Cain over performing NAME ID.
Place 2-7 all within MOE.
Romney in good position on the top line and his FAV/UNFAVS are looking better.
June 13th, 2011 at 8:42 am
(just mocking the TPaw people here….)
Santorum SURGE!!!
June 13th, 2011 at 8:47 am
The CNN Poll which hasn’t been posted at R2012 yet shows Romney leading among Tea Partiers (Romney 27% – Palin 20%) and Conservatives (Romney 28% – Palin 20%)
So can we end this false and foolish narrative that Romney is despised by both camps? This is the umpeenth poll to show otherwise.
Obviously he doesn’t get 100% support, but he is way more competetive and always has been, than has been reported.
Even this Gallup poll shos him getting 25% of Conservatives.
June 13th, 2011 at 8:54 am
I believe what these numbers are beginningto tell us, is similar to what Charles Krauthammer wrote the other day. The 2012 elecetion will abut obama and Stewardship NOT Obama/Ideology.
When you look at the field of the GOP, these numbers indicate most people see Romney as leader best able to provide that stewardship and defeat Obama. They are not happy about the ecomony and that issue, above all others, will drive the election, as it always does.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:03 am
Doug NYC GOP,
“So can we end this false and foolish narrative that Romney is despised by both camps?”
No we can’t…and won’t.
Rudy was also leading with Conservatives in June of “07″.
Besides Mitt, only Paul & Gingrich have NAME ID of over 65% (not counting Palin) in these poll rankings.
It’s fine that you love these poll results, but your trying to end the conversation before the first debate.
That is just silly.
If Mitt stays at 24% as Cain, Santorum,Pawlenty, Bachmann & Huntsman all raise their NAME ID up to 65% and higher……then you have a point.
But for now, Mitt is enjoying his advantage of spending 116 million dollars in the “08″ cycle.
Mitt better have a lead against candidates with 65% and lower NAME ID after spending 116 mil last time…
Mitt’s lead over Newt and Palin is real….I will give you that. Both Palin & Newt will have to work in getting their UNFAVS down to have a chance at competing with Mitt.
But that is all this poll is showing.
Mitt hasn’t won anything….as he backs out of Iowa.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:05 am
Go Mitt Go!
June 13th, 2011 at 9:13 am
Krauthamer’s analysis was sparkling. And it says the GOP activists and pundits are fighting the last war and not the one that will beat Obama. But the rank and file and the average Joe know what the real issue is, and it isn’t spending or taxes, except as that impacts their highest priority, which is jobs.
And that’s why Romney keeps defying the pundits’ poll projections. Expect him to hammer jobs and the economy tonight, and to snarl a bit at Obama.
Pawlenty had better get going in these polls or his IA cash burn rate will consume his campaign before the money gets off the sideline.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:19 am
Gallup – June, 2007
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-06-04-poll-results_N.htm
Rudy Guiliani – 32
John McCain – 19
Mitt Romney – 12
Fred Thompson – 11
Newt Gingrich – 08
Mike Huckabee – 02
Mitt Romney numbers started to rise at this point, as he started showing ads in the early states.
Guiliani still led with every major group in June of 2007.
John McCain 19% was his slowest score in June of 2007 since March of 2007.
Huckabee still was not known to anyone at this point. The 2% Mike scored in June was the same that he scored in FEB 2007.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:20 am
Smack,
I’m not trying to end the conversation, just clarify some misconceptions which are continously put forward, namely Romney has no support among conservatives and the Tea Party. The line of thought is that Palin leads both these sectors.
Now, considering how active and engaged both these camps are said to be, it stands to reason, they know full well who the candidates are, ergo Cain explosion onto the scene after the SC debate.
Obviously someone was watching, because they also answered the phone when the pollsters called.
All the Gallup and CNN pols show is that Romney has much stronger support with these groups than what we hear every day. All we he about is the trouble Romney has with Dick Armey and FreedomWorks. Trouble with Conservatives due to Limbaugh, Levin et. al. Well the numbers don’t back that up.
We can have a conversation until the cows come home. Let’s just make sure we are discussing things factually, that all.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:24 am
Smack Daddy,
Rudy numbers, 2008 etc, etc etc, mean nothing.
Rudy was a lazy candidate, Romney is not.
Romney has had high numbers, seen them erode and now they are on the rise agian. He has kept working hard throughout this whole time. So something else besides everybody getting better name id is going to have to happen, in order to change this race, as it stands right now.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:27 am
Still Hurting,
I agree that TPAW’s burn rate is probably a problem, but his poll numbers are not. TPAW is within the MOE of 2nd place in all these polls (W/O Palin)
That’s not bad. Cain has outperformed TPAW, Bachmann & Santorum in these polls so far based on NAME ID…but nothing is a surprise so far in these polls.
TPAW & Bachmann are in a ground war here in Iowa….. for 1st place in the Ames straw poll.
National Polls be damned…that is the only thing concerning Bachmann & Pawlenty.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:31 am
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation
Romney…..24
Palin……20
According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, the former Massachusetts governor, who’s making his second bid for his party’s presidential nomination, grabbed the support of 24 percent of Republicans and independent voters who lean toward the GOP, with former Alaska governor Sarah Palin at 20 percent, ahead of the rest of the field.
================================
Romney front runner?
Really?
June 13th, 2011 at 9:31 am
Doug NYC,
I’m not trying to connect a direct link with Rudy to Mitt. But I will say that Mitt enjoys his NAME ID advantage over the other candidates because of the “08″ cycle and that advantage will start to get smaller and smaller as times goes on.
I will say that Mitt’s FAV/UNFAVS have been getting better with the GOP voters in the last month…and that is not good news for the rest of the pack.
Hopefully we can drive Mitt’s UNFAVS back up a little bit tonight.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:34 am
13. Smack,
Very good answer…but to a different question. Had Doug been suggesting that Mitt will win the Tea Party and conservative votes, your answer would be spot on. There’s still too much that could change and we should continue discussing/debating.
However, that was not his question. He was addressing comments by others over the past months and longer that Mitt would never get any Tea Party or conservative votes because they can’t stand Mitt. I understood Doug’s point to be that regardless whether Mitt wins or not, he does have at least some support among the Tea Party and among conservatives–it IS POSSIBLE that Mitt could get some votes from those groups.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:34 am
TEX,
Yes, MITT is the front runner.
Why dont Palin get in the game and try to change that?
Again, Palin is not running, but here numbers are high because the other candidates have NAME ID lower then 65%.
The playing field will even out…then will see how far out Mitt is from the rest of the pack.
It will tighten.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:36 am
Doug,
While Mitt has- for quite a while- polled solidly among TP and conservatives in horserace polls, I think he still has a problem there. Having a large, open field can mask problems that only show up latter. For instance, Palin right now probably gets 10x the support among Republican-leaning Indies than Jon Huntsman. Would that continue to be the case in a 2 person race? Probably not.
Yes, Mitt is getting his share now, but what is his ceiling? That’s what will start to matter as the field winnows. We already know Mitt’s favs among conservatives was much lower than Huck’s. Where Mitt taps out is probably largely contingent on who is with him at the end.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:37 am
hamaca,
“Very good answer…but to a different question”
It’s often best to give the answer you want to give, then give an answer to the actual question that was asked.
SMACK’S PROMOTIONS – LESSON #123
June 13th, 2011 at 9:39 am
Doug (17),
I think that is kind of my point in 15. This election is moving away from the ideologies of these group to the pragmatic reality; people need jobs. Romney hasn’t won the ideologues but he is winning the average voter, the same ones that rose up over the direction of the country in the past 2 years. These polls are only confounding if you are listening to the pundits. They make perfect sense if you are listening to the people.
Ric Pugmire
June 13th, 2011 at 9:40 am
This month Sarah Barracuda will travel to Iowa and S.Carolina with her
“One Nation”, “non campaign” bus tour.
“The Undefeated” movie will debut in Iowa,S.Carolina and Nevada at the end
of the month.
Let’s the polls after these events.I’m not even talking about “nuclear”
explosion after she announces.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:41 am
T-Bore is not a serious candidate, never was never will.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:42 am
I can smell the fear through my speakers
June 13th, 2011 at 9:44 am
Smack –
I love ya man – but you really need to stop trying to compare the last primary to this one, especially the Romney Giuliani comparisons.
Giuliani had high name recognition based on 9/11 – not based on past presidential runs or his “known” policies/politics. He ran high in the polls based on a story book persona. Nothing more. Once the vetting process began his lack of conservative viewpoints (more specifically social conservatism) came to light he started droping like a rock.
Romney has been through the ringer via the last round and ever since then. The Tea Party folks got to know him and his policies as did most other conservatives. To try to rationalize away the thought that he will drop like unto Giuliani is a false premise because the situations are completely different.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:45 am
25. LOL!
And that’s what many successful politicians are trained to do–provide their talking points regardless of the questions–stay on topic, frame the discussion.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:47 am
Adding to Watch’s Pet Peeves List:
#45 Commenters who assume others are motivated out of fear of their chosen candidates strength, power, charisma, chances of winning, and/or general awesomeness. Generally, this is done by people who don’t know what else to write.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:47 am
20. Tex,
“Romney front runner?
Really?”
Since Sarah did so well in that CNN/ORC poll, and because we like you and her, I’ll tell you what we’re going to do–we’re going to let Sarah be the co-front runner for that poll.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:50 am
Matt “MWS”
Of course you never saw the humor in my comment. You tend not to participate in humor and jokes often.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:51 am
It looks like Romney did get a bounce from his announcement. However whether it will last is another matter. Also if Palin does get in, it clearly creates problems for Bachmann, Cain and Santorum. Again it confirms the fact that Gingrich has collapsed. He was polling around 20% a year ago. Also Michelle Bachmann’s campaign is a little less rosey. Wonder if her attacks on Palin have backfired because Bachmann is now fighting with Santorum.
These are registered voters rather than likely voters. That may tighten the race even further.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:51 am
T-Paws broadsides against Romney are going to draw return fire.
From Bachmann!
Look for her to savage the former Minnesota Governor in tonight’s debate.
That’s the problem with a can of worms…
once you open it…
June 13th, 2011 at 9:52 am
Smack,
How are candidates polling between 5 and 16% within the margin of error? Perhaps you meant candidates 3-8 instead of 2-7. Clearly this is another good poll for Romney, a sign of life in an early Santorum candidacy, and another painful poll for TPAW and Newt. I am really starting to think that TPAW is not going to be able to do enough to make a name for himself. He doesnt seem extreme in anything. Romney is the fiscal businessman. Cain is the fair tax/businessman. Sarah is the crazy VP candidate who tells it like it is. Heck, even Santorum has the strong socon vote going for him. TPAW is just stuck in the middle (at the moment). I disagree with those on here who rag on you for posting 2007/08 polls as I think they are useful to a point. Right now though I think they only way Romney doesnt take this thing is if a powerful socon steps up (Perry, Huckabee are both possibilities) or romneycare starts to hurt Mitt. Tonights debate should be a VERY good one.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:54 am
Smack
“Why dont Palin get in the game and try to change that?”
============================================================
You and all the supporters of 7 dwarfs,GOP hacks and flacks will never learn.
Sarah Palin always marches by her own drums.
It’s to early,she’s watching the field and getting ready to strike when
time is the best.
That’s why they call her Sarah Barracuda.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:54 am
34. MassCon,
I hate to be the one to break this to you, but North-Easterners, with the exception of certain pockets, just aren’t funny.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:54 am
Does anyone know if CNN is going to stream the debate online? I dont have cable
June 13th, 2011 at 9:54 am
MassCon,
Perhaps- just as in our choice of candidatess and whether the Northeast is a bastion of fiscal conservatism- we just differ in our sense of humor.
June 13th, 2011 at 9:59 am
“Pawlenty: Look, I am not speaking about Michele Bachmann but I am not running for comic or entertainer in chief. If people want that to be the main consideration they should go to a Broadway show.”
We’re going to get to see some Minnesota mud wrestling!
June 13th, 2011 at 9:59 am
tele,
Bring it on Bachmann!!!!!
Bring it on!!!!!!!!!
YEEEAAASSSS!!!!
Santorubio,
I don’t include Palin in my discussions because she is not in the race…and won’t be.
TPAW is doing fine……this is the first debate…everybody is over reaching right now on these polls.
Mitt is going to get hammered tonight by everybody.
There will also be a fight among the Iowa contenders, Bachmann, Santorum,Cain & TPAW.
It’s going to be great.
The race right now is who is going to be the alternative to Mitt. TPAW is just fine in that regard.
No worries…no problem.
June 13th, 2011 at 10:02 am
When do you all think these announcement will be wrapping up and our field will be set?? Do you all see TX GOV. rick perry jumping in?
June 13th, 2011 at 10:03 am
Santorubio,
You can come to my house to watch it, but you have to bring a 6 pack of Moosehead beer.
tele,
I can’t wait.
Bachmann will be fine for the first 30 minutes…then look out…the major gaffe will come.
The Mods will bring in examples of some outlandish things she has said in the past and she will struggle big time.
I have been waiting for this moment for a long time.
Bachmann is going down tonight!!
June 13th, 2011 at 10:04 am
Smack, when you’re in a fight for survival with Bachmann, Cain and Santorum…
it might be time to face reality.
I’m sorry.
It just ain’t happening.
June 13th, 2011 at 10:05 am
43. Gotcha….I agree with your view of the debate tonight as well as the fight among Iowa contenders…the problem is that your guy might not come out on top of that fight. Until people start paying attention to the fact that Cain has NO political experience, he is going to keep winning debates and holding his 8-10%. He is not a real candidate and will hopefully fizzle out. He cannot beat Obama heads up.
June 13th, 2011 at 10:05 am
I would love to see Bachmann humiliated to the point she doesn’t even run.
That would be awesome.
June 13th, 2011 at 10:05 am
If you look closely into this USA Today report of the Gallup Poll, there’s a very interesting point not mentioned in Gallups’s own analysis…
“Romney’s support stands at 24%, up 7 percentage points compared with a survey last month. In some ways, though, his standing is fragile. Only three in 10 of his backers say they are certain to stick with him. More than half of Palin’s supporters are certain to support her.”
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2011-06-12-mitt-romney-gop-2012_n.htm
June 13th, 2011 at 10:06 am
Smack,
Remember how sure and positive you were about Daniels running?
Remember how sure I was saying that Daniels is the next RINO to drop like a fly?
Smack,you don’t have a clue.
June 13th, 2011 at 10:07 am
http://www.rightspeak.net will be streaming the debate live tonight, for those with out cable or who want to comment while watching.
June 13th, 2011 at 10:10 am
49. The Rombots will soon explain that it is important to have seven-in-ten or more who are uncertain of their support.
June 13th, 2011 at 10:11 am
What could it all mean?
heh heh
Ohio money flowing to Palin, Romney
http://www.middletownjournal.com/news/middletown-news/ohio-money-flowing-to-palin-romney–1183634.html
The first votes for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination are still months away, but Ohioans have already given nearly a quarter of a million dollars to would-be candidates, including $58,000 to “SarahPAC,” former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s political action committee.
Trailing just behind Palin in cash from Ohioans is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s “Free and Strong America PAC,” which has received $50,000.
But the enthusiasm a candidate musters in the Buckeye state — including financial contributions — can be indicative of how they’ll do in the general election.
“If one candidate is doing particularly well there, that could to some degree foreshadow their success later.”
June 13th, 2011 at 10:11 am
I wonder if Pawlenty also will “look at President Obama’s own comments” when it comes to the economy and the conflict in Libya??
If that is TPAW’s basis for his attack positions these days, Mitt should not be worried…simply ask TPAW if he agrees with Obama’s comments that 9.1% unemployment means we are improving the economy or that the Libyan conflict is constitutional without Congressional approval?
Or whether Congress should adopt a cap and trade policy? Wait…those were TPAW’s own words a few years ago.
Funny how other candidates get “passes” from previous positions held years ago on what the national government should implement, yet Mitt gets raked across the coals for positions held years ago at the state level of implementation.
Also, why does TPAW get a “pass” on cap and trade for saying he was wrong, when Mitt does not get one even though he has publicly noted many times his first action as President would be to provide state waivers to Obamacare, seek the repeal of it, and there being no desire to implement MassCare nationawide, particularly due to some of the bad portions of it?
June 13th, 2011 at 10:12 am
Hamaca – that was my point exactly. The pundits are playinf up this trouble with the TP/Conservatives, yet never report the figures to back up thier claims…because they can’t.
Matt MWS; I agree Romney may not be the darling of the TP/Conservative set, but as in Iowa, if he gets his shre, even if it’s limited, he’ll do ok. Even in a two person race, because it depends uponm where we are in the primary schedule when it gets to be a two person race.
If Romney has won NH, NV and FLA heading into super Tuesday against 1 or 2 others, I htink he emerges on the other side like McCain, the statistically prohibitive frontrunner in delegates, who still has bags of cash to fiht on.
June 13th, 2011 at 10:15 am
51. THANKS DOUG!!!!!
June 13th, 2011 at 10:19 am
#54 Good Point.
Doesn’t saying yo were wrong on a position, changing your mind and adopting a new position, catergorize you as a “Flip-Flopper”?
Seems to be a great double-standard being applied here, by many folks.
Would Romney have been given a “Pawlenty-Pass” on MassCare, if he came out and said it was wrong?
Don’t make me laugh.
June 13th, 2011 at 10:21 am
http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/06/live-feed-from-nh-gop-presidential.html
#56; SR -here is a link to the page right now
June 13th, 2011 at 10:23 am
hamaca, Matt “MWS”
I guess if you have to explain the humor, it’s not funny. Or maybe anyone who doesn’t find it funny never understood the point of it.
I was mocking teledude, since he always says “smell the fear.” I took it one step further to make it obvious that I was joking, by saying I smelled it through my speakers. But I guess you didn’t understand.
On a separate note, I find the amount of regionalism on this site disturbing and un-American. This is really beneath your intellect, to be calling northeasterners “not funny.” Or perhaps it isn’t.
June 13th, 2011 at 10:27 am
I smell the fear
http://nation.foxnews.com/politics/2011/06/13/palin-approval-double-digits
June 13th, 2011 at 10:36 am
11 – Doug, the Tea Party is a difficult group to poll, since they are as much a philosophy as they are a group. Any and all, good and decent Republicans would probably align themselves with the philosophical movement but perhaps not all are, or want to be, part of the groups. I wouldn’t take much credence from that poll question…one way or the other. We also have to remember that we are still at a point where political posturing, by supporters of every candidate, plays a role. Basically I am happy that Palin is showing signs of life, in these polls, but I also take them for what they’re worth…NOT MUCH. At this early stage, the littlest thing could topple pre-conceived notions. Gingrich’s bad week, Romney’s bundlers, if Palin enters the race…could temporarily change the trajectory in either direction for every candidate, or possible candidate. I think the first poll we should start paying major attention to is the Ames Straw Poll.
June 13th, 2011 at 10:47 am
61
You mean the Ames poll neither Mitt nor Palin will attend?
June 13th, 2011 at 11:08 am
62 – the Ames Poll might not be significant, in the grand scheme of things, but it is kinda the real starting point of the 2012 campaign. Polls thereafter should start being weighed…as long as the field is set by then.
June 13th, 2011 at 11:13 am
59. I was trying to be funny.
June 13th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
Smack, no one with name recognition numbers like Pawlenty currently has at this stage of the race, has EVER won the Republican nomination in the modern media age. You can lament low name recognition all day and all night, but you are overlooking the fact that name recognition itself is a huge factor in the race. Pawlenty will have to do a lot more tha get his name recognized to pull off a victory here.
June 13th, 2011 at 1:01 pm
There is no way this will be a two person race, so suggesting that that will be the downfall of Romney is a pipe dream at best.
June 13th, 2011 at 3:22 pm
MWS: I second your addition to the list!
I can understand why cranky Sarah supporters do this. That’s how they became Sarah fans in the first place. Somebody who supports Sarah got cranky, and they just couldn’t resist.
It has to be confusing to them to run into people who don’t swoon for crankiness.
June 13th, 2011 at 3:56 pm
Santorum wil beat Pawlenty in Iowa.
June 14th, 2011 at 9:48 pm
[...] own criteria but whose requests for an invitation were bizarrely ignored, and the candidate whom a Gallup poll on the day of the debate showed polling right behind Newt Gingrich (and with twice the support of [...]