The problem with early polls is that they depend so much on name recognition and the celebrity factor. It’s hard to get a really clear reading of who Republican voters are going to pick at the end of the day, when you have such huge disparity between name id between the various candidates that will be on the ballot. Take the most recent Gallup poll, for instance: 95% of respondents know who Sarah Palin is, while only 18% know who Gary Johnson is. And the rest of the candidates run the whole gamut in between.
In order to get a better feel of how strong the candidate himself or herself actually is, I like to employ a method whereby I measure the support of each candidate, adjusted for name recognition. This involves dividing the number of supporters by the number of those who have heard of the candidate, and assigning a score to them based on that. My reasoning is that, if all these candidates stick it out until the primaries begin, they will all have much higher and much more similar name recognitions amongst Republican primary voters.
Going by the most recent Gallup poll‘s numbers, here’s their–what I will call–NAS (Name-id Adjusted Strength) scores. Each score means that, out of 100 Republican primary voters who are familiar with this candidate, the score is how many people would vote for the candidate, at the present time:
Scores Adjusted For Name ID – from Gallup, 5/16-29/2011
- Herman Cain – 22%
- Mitt Romney – 20%
- Sarah Palin – 16%
- Ron Paul – 13%
- Tim Pawlenty – 12%
- Gary Johnson – 11%
- Newt Gingrich – 11%
- Michele Bachmann – 8%
- Jon Huntsman – 7%
- Rick Santorum – 4%
(The tallies do not add up to 100%, nor should they — these are merely the percentages of how much support each candidate gets out of all the people who have heard of them.)
What is perhaps most surprising is how little the candidates actually change positions when this method is used. The effects of name recognition are still there, as many of the people who voiced support for particular candidates perhaps did so because they felt the candidate’s high name ID made them a winner worth getting behind. But this does give us a slight glimpse past the name ID veil.
Herman Cain and Mitt Romney have the best scores (indicating people tend to like them when they get to know them). The middle of the pack, in the teens, consists of Palin, Paul, Pawlenty, Johnson, and Gingrich. In the third tier is Bachmann, Huntsman, and Santorum. There is, of course, still lots of room for some of these candidates (Pawlenty, Santorum, Cain, Huntsman, and Johnson) to make a good first impression. And some of the candidates–particularly those above 75% (Romney, Palin, Paul, and Gingrich)–must largely change the minds of those who have already decided, if they want to increase their share of the vote. That will be much more difficult for them.
Yes, there are things that can and will wildly impact the race between now and January, 2012, and I’m not saying this is exactly how the polls will look, come that time. But I think adjusting for name ID does give us a slightly better gauge of the strength of each candidate at this stage.
As always, comments, criticisms, insults, and death threats, are welcome.
May 31st, 2011 at 6:45 pm
I understand the attempt at this, but I don’t believe one bit that if Herman Cain had the name rec that Romney or Palin has, he would be higher than both. It in interesting none the less.
May 31st, 2011 at 6:48 pm
PPP Iowa SMACK Predictions
Romney 19
Cain 15
Bachmann 15
Palin 14
Paul 10
Pawlenty 10
Gingrich 07
Huntsman 00
We know Cain is tied for second and we also know that Bachmann has the best Net FAVS among all the GOP voters in Iowa according to the PPP tweets.
Fantastic news for the “Grass-roots candidates.
Wide open race in Iowa, and it will remain that way throughout the Summer.
We also know that Huntsman received 1 vote…Jonny boy has some work to do. Good thing for him it’s early and it’s Iowa.
Good stuff.
May 31st, 2011 at 6:52 pm
Swint,
I do believe that Cain is in 2/3 spot with Palin right now, and Newt is no longer in that 2/3 spot.
Paul, Pawlenty, Bachmann & Gingrich hold the next 4 spots 4/7.
Will see if the graas-roots can hold on to the 40% vote they have now.
Very interesting.
May 31st, 2011 at 6:52 pm
Why not, Swint? A good argument could be made that Cain combines the polish of Romney’s executive experience with the fire of Palin’s Tea Party excitement. He might make a viable compromise candidate between Romney establishment type voters, and Palin grassroots type voters.
May 31st, 2011 at 7:01 pm
While Cain does have experience in the business arena as does Romney, Cain has absolutely ZERO experience governing another in the public sector. But Cain is more than welcome to siphon all the votes off of Palin as much as he wants.
May 31st, 2011 at 7:03 pm
True, Frederick. Cain can’t pass himself off as the consummate executive like someone such as, say, Romney or Johnson can do. But I heartily disagree with Swint’s assertion that there’s no way Cain could be above both Romney and Palin if he was on equal name id footing with both. In fact, I think it’s very likely that if 90% of Republican primary voters were forced to sit down and watch Cain’s debate performance, Cain would probably be above both Romney and Palin in the polls the next day.
May 31st, 2011 at 7:06 pm
I do think Cain is along ways away from becoming Presidential in the eyes fo the majority of the GOP voters, because of lack service in a elected form. But I do believe he has moved into the second/third spot with Palin right behind Romney. The Cain surge, if it holds, will hurt Bachmann the most.
May 31st, 2011 at 7:10 pm
I predicted the Herman Cain. Thank you. Thank you. Batten down the hatches in Iowa, there is going to be a Herm-i-Cain!
May 31st, 2011 at 7:10 pm
As MEM has pointed out a couple of different times, it doesn’t seem that Cain takes votes away from Palin. Cain is soaking up the Fair Tax Huckabee votes, and he may be even getting a little bit of the EVAN vote of Hucks. Cain has to be better prepared for the Foreign Policy questions that the Mods will pepper him with in the debate on June 13th.
May 31st, 2011 at 7:11 pm
*surge
May 31st, 2011 at 7:12 pm
LOL!!! nowandlater… I don’t think it’s the greatest idea to emphasize the “Herm” in Cain’s name, standing alone…
May 31st, 2011 at 7:29 pm
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
Gallup FAVS/UNFAVS & Intensity scores
Palin 46/21 14
Gingrich 48/25 06
Romney 54/15 14
Paul 49/22 10
Bachmann 46/13 21
Pawlenty 55/11 15
Santorum 51/13 16
Cain 46/10 25
Huntsman 52/15 15
Jonhson 47/25 04
Cain leads everyone with the highest intensity score with Bachmann in 2nd. Pawlenty has the highest FAVS and the highest NET FAVS of the field. Romney’s UNFAV number of 15 looks pretty good for him, and if he keeps that number that low he will have the lead for sometime IMO.
May 31st, 2011 at 7:45 pm
#12 – Smack1968
When they drop out who do they endorse? (my tentative guesses in a 3 man race of pawlenty, romney, palin)
Huntsman – Pawlenty (anti-Mitt)
Cain – Romney (supported him in 2008)
Gingrich – Romney/Pawlenty (toss up)
Bachmann – Palin (tea party)
Santorum – Palin/Pawlenty (social conservative)
Johnson – Romney (pure guess)
Paul – Palin (tea party, libertarian, foreign policy)
May 31st, 2011 at 7:50 pm
welby,
Looks good. I don’t think that most of Cain votes go to Romney, but his endorsement would go there.
I think Bachmann would endorse Palin, but I don’t think Palin endorses Bachmann. Palin has said that she believe the GOP should nominate a Governor.
May 31st, 2011 at 7:52 pm
According to the same Gallup poll, Palwenty has hit 50% NAME ID for the first time.
YYEEAAAASSSSSS!!!!!
May 31st, 2011 at 8:04 pm
welby,
If Johnson drops out, he’ll endorse Paul, obviously — just like he did in 2008. Hell would freeze over before Johnson endorsed Romney. Lol
And if Paul dropped out, he’d endorse Johnson. Paul has said Johnson is the only one in the field he could see himself supporting.
May 31st, 2011 at 8:07 pm
Adolf Hitler has a high name ID.
May 31st, 2011 at 8:11 pm
That might be true but I am assuming that both Paul and Johnson are out. Who do they endorse of the remaining 3 (palin,pawlenty,romney)
May 31st, 2011 at 8:13 pm
If 2008 is any indication, Paul would endorse a third party candidate. I’m not sure what Johnson would do. If he endorsed any of the 3, I think it would probably be Pawlenty. There’s an equally good chance he might endorse a third party candidate, though. And another equally good chance he wouldn’t endorse anyone.
May 31st, 2011 at 8:14 pm
18. Palin is the most libertarian of those three, if they are staying true to their beliefs.
Of course in politics that doesn’t always happen.
May 31st, 2011 at 8:16 pm
tele,
Palin with NAME ID of 95% and with a FAV/UNFAV of only = 46/21…well.. for your sake I hope that bus tour can give her a boost.
I don’t know how it can though, because her 21% UNFAVS have nothing to do with people thinking she doesn’t know how to ride a bus.
May 31st, 2011 at 8:20 pm
tele,
When TPAW’s NAME ID was 39% in Gallup, Tim had the best FAV/UNFAV ratio in the field.
Now TPAW’s NAME ID is at 50%, and he still has the best FAV/UNFAV ratio in the field.
Do you know what it will mean once TPAW has a 65% NAME ID, with the best FAV/UNFAV ratio in the field?
….TPAW SURGE!
May 31st, 2011 at 8:25 pm
Hmmmmmm…the more you know…
While others talked about or passed health care mandates, Palin proposed market driven solutions.
http://spectator.org/archives/2008/09/04/palin-bucks-the-health-care-es
May 31st, 2011 at 8:30 pm
Fascinating analysis, Josiah. I like the fresh approach.
Thanks for doing this.
May 31st, 2011 at 9:03 pm
As Cain’s name ID goes up, his approval will go down. Not because he’s a terrible candidate, but that’s just what happens to people when they start being vetted. Everybody has flaws and people who just watched him in a debate might not be familiar with his yet.
May 31st, 2011 at 10:15 pm
Hi All,
I live in Atlanta and voted for Herman Cain a few years ago when he ran for State office. I like him a lot. Having said that, and it is unfortunate, but true
You really don’t expect Cain to be running against Obama do you ? Not even remotely realistic, even here in the South
CraigS
May 31st, 2011 at 10:25 pm
Smack # 2
PPP Iowa poll leaked already:
Romney 21 %
Palin 15 %
Cain 15 %
CraigS
May 31st, 2011 at 10:42 pm
Alert “Freedom Works” DefCon 1 !!!!
May 31st, 2011 at 11:16 pm
That is stupid. Nothing scientific about it at all. It is just a gimmick to get more attention.
May 31st, 2011 at 11:20 pm
Cain is almost incoherent on foreign policy. He won’t be the nominee. If he were, we would ripped apart by Obama on foreign policy.
June 1st, 2011 at 4:30 pm
Perhaps R412 would start to put Cain somewhere in its power rankings!