A reporter went to a New Hampshire woman back in 1968 and asked her “what do you think of Richard Nixon?”
The woman’s response? “Don’t know. I’ve only met him 5 or 6 times.”
That old joke actually illustrates a very important point. Winning over the voters in early primary states, particularly flinty New Hampshire requires an incredible amount of work. A candidate can’t just land in Manchester, go out on the tarmac, make a five minute speech, and then jet off to the next location. It simply doesn’t work like that. In fact, one of the arguments in favor of keeping New Hampshire and Iowa as early states in the calendar is because of that attitude. Being small states both Iowa and New Hampshire force candidates to campaign like they’re running for Mayor. That type of campaigning can’t be done statewide in a place like Texas or California or Florida; these states are simply too big, with too many people. What this also means is that candidates can’t just burst onto the scene, give a good speech, and hope to win.
If you look at 2008, it was clear that Fred Thompson (and to a lesser extent Rudy Giuliani) both believed that they could just appear in places like Iowa and New Hampshire and somehow win these states without doing the legwork that other candidates were doing. Which three candidates did the best in these states? The ones who spent more time, worked harder, met more people and shook more hands were the ones who won. In 1996, Steve Forbes dumped millions in both states but didn’t do the campaigning that Bob Dole, Pat Buchanan and Lamar Alexander did. The end result? Forbes placed a very distant fourth in both. In 2000, Forbes still dumped millions into Iowa and New Hampshire, but he also worked and stumped and campaigned much harder, especially in Iowa. Forbes would take silver in Iowa and a bronze in New Hampshire. He learned.
This time around there is lot of talk around some candidates about how “once they start giving speeches in (insert state here) the people will fall in love with them, vote for them, etc.” Well, yeah they might fall in love, but that doesn’t necessarily turn into votes. People admire hard-work; they respect it, and particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire, they’ll vote for it. No candidate is going to win either of these states by making big speeches to big crowds or having good zingers in a debate and nothing else. It may not be glamorous or exciting but sheer legwork is very important. Meeting people in their homes or at their neighborhood cafés counts more than making them and 1,000 of their closest friends cheer for a ten-minute speech. If a person isn’t willing to do that, then they need to find another line of work.
May 29th, 2011 at 8:41 pm
Great Post Jonathan,
I remember reading a story once about John Kennedy winning the Senate seat in Massachusetts in 1952, and at his victory party JFK thanked a lady, who lived down the street from him, for voting for him. The lady told JFK that she loved him and everything, but she did not vote for him. John was shocked to hear this and ask the lady “why didn’t you vote for me”? The lady simply answered “you didn’t ask for my vote”.
And that is why Palin is not running. Of course, if she ever did run for President it would be unconventional, but it wouldn’t be like this.
And this post is another example of why the ROMBOTS here should not expect Mitt to get 25.2% of the vote in Iowa this time…it will be much lower.
Why?
Because, in the perception of the average Iowa voter, Mitt this time, will not have earned it like in “08″
Mitt will spend the time needed in New Hampshire, and will be a tough nut to crack in the Live Free or Die state, but Iowa will give him the cold shoulder in return of his cold shoulder to the Hawkeye state.
May 29th, 2011 at 9:00 pm
1
Iowa will not win the nomination for anyone.
TPaw’s going to have to win Iowa. But he has to win MORE than just IA. He will need to win either NH or SC.
May 29th, 2011 at 9:01 pm
I could see why Romney would skip Ames. But by doing so, he alienates all the Iowa voters who love to be courted.
Does that mean he will skip the Iowa debate as well? I can just see those hesitant Iowa voters getting peeved that not only will he skip their straw poll/debate, but will try to diminish the importance of it as well.
Will this hurt their economy? Don’t Iowans rely on money that comes pouring into the state for restaurants, hotels, car rentals, etc for the media, out of state volunteers?
If Romney makes it seem irrelevant, and the state loses money, it could be a problem for Mitt.
Yes I know that McCain didn’t play to win their either, but his relationship with Iowa was different.
May 29th, 2011 at 9:07 pm
Mitt will need to be retail politicking every day by the end of July.
Fundraising is important. But making an early first impression is more important.
May 29th, 2011 at 9:15 pm
JHO,
I like TPAW’s chances in SC if the field doesn’t change drastically. Mitt is doing the right thing by low balling Iowa. Mitt is receiving good advice. It’s making his NH firewall a bit tougher to crack IMO.
May 29th, 2011 at 9:21 pm
I have a little three letter word for you Smack.
YET
Palin isn’t running YET.
Although it looks as if an unconventional campaign is starting a soft roll out.
She could announce in September and still have time to personally speak to every person in Iowa before the caucus. The point is, going by historical starting dates, she is not late to the party at all.
I think you are projecting your wishes, kinda like George Will today.
This is called being out of touch. It’s not cool.
So I have to laugh.
At today’s Rolling Thunder Rally Governor Palin happened to meet with some O4P volunteers and had her picture taken. Check this out and then tell me again…?
http://yfrog.com/h4fmikoj
May 29th, 2011 at 9:31 pm
tele,
Palin looked great today, and she did a wonderful service for our country my giving more exposure to the men, are heroes, who are missing in action.
Let me know the first hire Palin makes in regards to a state specific primary race.
Until then I consider her a Conservative voice that will be heard from time to time.
That’s it..no more to say in regards to Palin until endorsement time when the Hockey Mom endorses the Hockey player.
May 29th, 2011 at 9:39 pm
I don’t think Romney is going to give away his Iowa strategy to the other candidates. He certainly isn’t gonna blab it to Carl Cameron at FOX. Probably something he learned from 2008′.
May 29th, 2011 at 10:00 pm
Prediction: Romney crushes everyone in Iowa, Then Crushes everyone in New Hampshire, and then in Nevada. By the time SC comes around, its over. You heard it here, mark the page, I have spoken.
May 29th, 2011 at 10:06 pm
Will Romney show up for the New Hampshire debate in June but skip the Iowa debate in August? Or will he skip both?
May 29th, 2011 at 10:07 pm
# Texas Conservative Says:
May 29th, 2011 at 10:06 pm
Will Romney show up for the New Hampshire debate in June but skip the Iowa debate in August? Or will he skip both?
==================================================================
He will be at both….
May 29th, 2011 at 10:47 pm
Iowa and New Hampshire are hardly the only small states in the country. Why not try allowing, say, Hawaii to hold the first primary instead? I’m sure the candidates would prefer to do their campaigning in January in Hawaii than in Iowa or New Hampshire.
May 29th, 2011 at 10:53 pm
Hawaii? A collection of islands thousands of miles away from where most of the candidates live?
Iowa and New Hampshire are perfect. They’re both swing states, they have different ideological makeups, different cultural makeups, and are both small enough to do retail politicking in.
May 29th, 2011 at 11:09 pm
Iowa will be very interesting in that the field may in fact be very fragmented. I can see someone winning IA with 20-25% It will depend on who actually gets in and who stays in.
May 29th, 2011 at 11:13 pm
This is what I like about both Pawlenty and Romney. They work at it. There was a story, a couple of days ago, about Pawlenty in a Iowa diner I think. He showed up to give a short speech…and then stayed until he had a chance to talk, in depth, to every last person. And the tone of the story was kind of, “well, they say Pawlenty’s not exciting but he’s here and he’s friendly and he’s getting to know us”. I like to think that matters. And it’s one of the reasons I’m absolutely in favor of Iowa and NH’s status. Sometimes, I’ve felt like, well, we could alternate early states between all of the smaller states. But by having the “special status” Iowans and Granite Staters take the process a lot more seriously. Oh, random and slightly off topic. It occurs to me that it’s quite a coincidence that the two “early states” are also pretty serious swing states. And they haven’t always been so swingy. Does anyone think that the intense primary/caucus focus, from both sides, has kind of changed the states’ political climates to reflect the uncertainty of the nation? Or is that just crazy spitballing?
May 29th, 2011 at 11:16 pm
Interesting take by Iowa’s WHO TV political analysts.
The republican insider is starting to get the picture, while the democrat is still virtually clueless. This is only about 5 minutes, but it’s an interesting look at what’s goin on in Iowa.
WHO “The Insiders”
http://www.whotv.com/videobeta/62f86d2b-2cf4-42d2-90bf-376ab5e08d42/News/Insiders-5-29-11-Part-2
May 29th, 2011 at 11:18 pm
The Ron Paul people have focused on Straw Polls, and they blitz them. Ames won’t be what it was before as a result . . . I don’t see how those people resist the grandaddy of all straw polls. Makes Ames less appealing all the way around.
May 29th, 2011 at 11:23 pm
I agree about the steady work ethic of Romney and Pawlenty. Means a great deal to me. Shows tenacity, grit, and respect for the people, the process, and the office.
NH likely swings Red with Romney in ’12. Iowa seems more purple than it really is. Hard to see Iowa actually coming back to Red for awhile.
May 29th, 2011 at 11:40 pm
15. “random and slightly off topic. It occurs to me that it’s quite a coincidence that the two “early states” are also pretty serious swing states. And they haven’t always been so swingy. Does anyone think that the intense primary/caucus focus, from both sides, has kind of changed the states’ political climates to reflect the uncertainty of the nation? Or is that just crazy spitballing?”
I think you’ve hit on something, at least for us here in Iowa.
We used to be sort of Midwest cordial about politics, but this state is pretty divided now by fierce leftists in the larger eastern cities and strong conservative voters in the more rural western part.
I don’t know if this is actually caused by the attention from being the first caucus state, or more a reflection of politics nationwide, but as a state we are almost schizophrenic.
San Fransisco has nothing on Iowa City when it comes to loony left wing ideas, but there is probably not a more conservative spot in the deep southern bible belt than you will find in Western Iowa counties like Osceola, O’Brein, and Clay.
May 30th, 2011 at 12:25 am
I think you are wrong on Thompson. His lack of campaigning was more of a sympton than a cause. Even in his campaign appearances, he was very lackluster. It seemed like his heart was not in running. I never got the feeling he really wnted to run. Maybe his head told him to run but his heart never got the message.
May 30th, 2011 at 2:15 am
#3 TexCon
Let me get this straight….Huck and his supporters have been blasting cyberspace for years harping about how much money Romney spent in Iowa in 2008 and declaring it all to be such terrible fiscal management that it disqualifies him to be POTUS…
…And now your are suggesting that Romney not pouring in all that money this time will hurt the Iowa economy and that enrages Iowan voters?
Sure sounds like a Catch 22, damned if you do, damned if you don’t attack strategy.
…Not to mention how you folks keep saying Iowans don’t like Romney and he can’t win the state no matter how much money and time he spends there, and then you turn around and say the Iowans won’t love Romney and he can’t win the state because he’s going to diss them and not spend enough time and money in the state, which suggests that if he did, he could win. But if he can’t win, why would Iowans be made at him anyway if they don’t want him? I’m getting dizzy…
OK, which is it?
(Let me guess, you’re going to say both….figures…)
May 30th, 2011 at 2:24 am
#17..Watch..
Yeah, I’m sure the other candidates aren’t excited about busing in and buying tickets for the Paul supporters.
Let’me get their own ride and pay their own way if they want to stuff the straw polls…
May 30th, 2011 at 7:54 am
Good post & good point, Jonathan. Candidates who work hard to meet the people in these early states will do better.
May 30th, 2011 at 8:43 am
#21 has it Right. Huckabee won Iowa without working as hard orinvesting as much as Romney did. Iowa rejected Romney, but I suspect that Romney will give Iowa more importance than he is publicly acknowledging. By doing so he down plays the expectation card. There is a stategy to this folks. This has been I’m sure a calculated move by Romney team. Will see how it works out.
What is Romney polling in Iowa anyway?
May 30th, 2011 at 9:14 am
If only the author didn’t try so hard to not say Sarah Palin’s name in the post. What a silly concept…do you really think that a 20 year political veteran doesn’t understand the retail portion of campaigning? How do you think she won in Alaska in 2006? It amazes me how people project their, misinformed, beliefs about her…onto her…
If you truly believe she will not engage in personal, traditional political campaigning, all awhile running one of the most nonconventional campaigns in modern political history…then you should be ready for a rude awakening.
May 30th, 2011 at 9:26 am
Actually, if anyone questions Palin’s prowess at retail politics…I recommend they take a look at the pictures from her visit to the D.C. monuments last night.
May 30th, 2011 at 10:29 am
Dick Morris on T-Paw:
“Frankly I urge you not to vote for him”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2ZoNBmMfxU&feature=relmfu
May 30th, 2011 at 11:59 am
Ryan,
Is this before or after TPAW slammed Dick Morris at a meeting with NRO this week?
Dick Morris has hated TPAW for two years.
Expect these two things to happen:
1. Dick will go all out to try to stop TPAW during the primaries.
2. When TPAW wins the Presidency Dick will make anti-TPAW books up the ying-yang.
And that’s ok, nothing wrong with that, but Dick hating on TPAW is nothing new.
May 30th, 2011 at 12:28 pm
Retail politicking 101.
Pay attention class:
http://www.daylife.com/search/photos/1/grid?__site=daylife&q=palin
May 30th, 2011 at 12:29 pm
T-Bore isn’t going to win anything.
May 30th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
Rudy is in New Hampshire working for it this time, so keep your traps shut about him. *wink-wink*
May 30th, 2011 at 12:36 pm
Freddy I agree……T-Bore is a bore and Romney is hollow. Neither can win.
Its GOT to be one of the three:
1.Rudy
2.Christie
3.Perry.
PERIOD.
May 30th, 2011 at 12:47 pm
tele – RUBIOZONE,
Palin is not even telling anyone her bus route, this think is a bust of major porportions.
Rudy-Christie-Perry?
Well you couldn’t have picked three worse choices since none of those three are running.
Congrats.
May 30th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
Smack you don’t know squat. I usually refrain from attacking people but I just can’t help myself. You are an obnoxious jerk. (among a couple of others on here but I won’t name names).
Oh, one more thing – - porportions is not a word.
May 30th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
27 – I watched that Dick Morris video and several others. Dick Morris is the biggest moron in politics. How he got such a high profile is beyond me.
Case in point, in the Herman Cain video he suggested that if Huckabee had stayed in the primaries in 2008 he thinks he would have eventually beaten McCain. That destroys any credibility that he even might have had. No one think Huckabee would have beat McCain if he stayed in to the end. I don’t think it was even mathematically possible.
May 30th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
#25 I would guess that even those of us who don’t like Sarah much were impressed at the energy she put into helping candidates in ’10. If she runs, she’ll work hard. Whether she holds up well under the daily scrutiny of the campaign, avoids unnecessary drama, handles press conferences smoothly, etc. are questions she hasn’t yet answered by how she’s conducted herself thus far. . . we shall see.
May 30th, 2011 at 1:46 pm
RUBIOZONE,
You call TPAW “a bore”, then you call Romney “hollow”….then all I do is point out that the three names you listed are not even running..and you call me what?…
..an obnoxious jerk?
You are a funny kid.
May 30th, 2011 at 2:10 pm
33.
Be afraid, Smack, be very afraid.
Trouble’s a comin’
http://texas4palin.blogspot.com/2011/05/scott-conroy-palin-to-visit-iowa-as-bus.html
May 30th, 2011 at 2:11 pm
In case anyone missed my point:
” If the tour heads to regions outside of the Northeast like Iowa and South Carolina that, the source says, is a “big indicator” that Palin will pull the trigger.
If Ms. Walshe’s source is right, and if RCP’s Scott Conroy’s sources are right, then Gov. Palin just fired a round and hit the target dead center:
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will travel to Iowa next month as part of her nationwide bus tour, two sources with direct knowledge of the plan told RealClearPolitics.”
May 30th, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Only fools doubt me.
Don’t be a fool.
I’m just here to help.
May 30th, 2011 at 11:00 pm
36 – the fact is, at this point the only way for Palin to rehab her image and unfavorables is by running a great campaign. Her numbers are already beginning to change, for the better, and she hasn’t even announced a run yet. If she does run and does a good job…she could easily be the nominee and her rehabilitated image could propel her to the White House.
June 18th, 2011 at 8:24 am
My view is that Perry will run and will pick one of BAUCHMAN, CHRISTY,OR JULLIANO,AS RUNNIG MATE. pERSONALLY I THINK, PERRY AND BAUCHMAN.
June 18th, 2011 at 8:26 am
Also , I don`t think obastard could win even if he spent 10 billion dollars.