The Des Moines Register reports that Mitt Romney may sit out the Ames Straw Poll in August:
Massachusetts Republican Mitt Romney said in Ankeny this morning he’s not sure yet if he’ll be in Ames for the Iowa straw poll in August.
But after he officially announces his bid for the White House next week during an event in New Hampshire, he said he will talk about it with his strategy team. The straw poll is considered an test of campaign strength and popularity and is less than 80 days away.
…“These are lean times. We’ve got a more lean campaign,” Romney said this morning to about 20 reporters in the parking lot of AgVision Agriculture Software, an agribusiness technology company in Ankeny. “I’ll take my message to the people of Iowa the best way I can.”
Romney said he’s fully committed to Iowa and to the caucus process here but as to the tactics of his campaign, “that’s something which we’ll leave for the future.” He said he’ll be back in Iowa “a number of times before the contest is complete.”
Obviously, Romney will weigh the Straw Poll with the issue of expectations clearly in mind. As has become abundantly clear in the past couple election cycles, momentum and media coverage bear the utmost importance to winning a nomination. If Romney decides to compete in Ames and finishes behind, say, Palin, Bachmann, Cain, and/or Pawlenty, the media will report it as a devastating blow to his campaign, diminishing his chances in the absolutely vital state of New Hampshire.
On the other hand, if he chooses to not contest Ames, the media cannot report a poor showing as a disappointment, since he will not have invested time and resources.
Mitt and his campaign have a difficult decision to make. We’ll see which direction they eventually choose.
May 28th, 2011 at 11:55 am
Has anyone recently won both Iowa and NH in the GOP primary?
May 28th, 2011 at 11:56 am
There is no real reason for Romney to participate in the Straw poll. It is a great way to build name reconition, but he already has it. The risks out way the benefits, IMHO.
May 28th, 2011 at 11:57 am
# hamaca Says:
May 28th, 2011 at 11:55 am
Has anyone recently won both Iowa and NH in the GOP primary?
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No, but Romney has the best shot I have seen in years.
May 28th, 2011 at 12:03 pm
“…and finishes behind, say, Palin, Bachmann, Cain, and/or Pawlenty, the media will report it as a devastating blow to his campaign, diminishing his chances in the absolutely vital state of New Hampshire.”
I’ve heard it said numerous times here and other places that New Hampshire voters go against Iowa. So how exactly does that diminish his chances in New Hampshire?
Next thing you know, someone will be posting Romney chances in New Hampshire is diminished because he is doing well in Iowa.
May 28th, 2011 at 12:04 pm
Ames isn’t just a straw poll, its a major meet-and-greet, and an opportunity to deliver a nationally-televised speech.
He might be best off going to Ames, shaking the hands, working the BBQ, giving a speech, but making it clear that is ALL he is there for.
Sadly, I have to agree that the straw poll itself doesn’t offer Romney much room for improvement – he won it last cycle, and it didn’t lead to much. Ames at this point might be the place where the anti-mitt is established.
That said, if Palin gets in, I’m not sure Romney can afford to skip the contest and let her build momentum.
May 28th, 2011 at 12:16 pm
As I mentioned in February, Mitt is not going to play in Iowa to win in Ames, or on Caucus night.
It’s the correct strategy for Mitt for reasons that we all have been stating.
I wish, as a TPAW supporter, Mitt’s decision would have been different.
Again, after a TPAW Iowa victory, will see ya in NH. Get you Granite State firewall ready Mitt, because were aiming to burn it down with our TPAW TORCHES!
Iowa is TPAW country!!
May 28th, 2011 at 12:19 pm
Palin is not running. And if by a miracle OL’Smackaroo is incorrect…well..then.Palin will not defeat TPAW in Iowa by coming in late Summer.
It’s not going to happen.
May 28th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
This will lower the expectation of having to win. Iowa gave Romney a cold shoulder last time. it’s a risky strategy… but a calculated one.
May 28th, 2011 at 12:38 pm
I see the risk of a low tier candidate winning it. That changes the narrative against Romney.
May 28th, 2011 at 12:51 pm
My concern is… if Mitt is in Iowa to win Iowa, he cannot afford to let someone else build momentum out of Ames…
Remember, Huckabee’s surprise strong second at Ames MADE him a contender.
If Mitt sits out Ames, SOMEONE will win. Who?
If TPaw wins, it could spell trouble. If Bachmann wins, not so much. If Palin wins? Disaster.
Another concern: The media will highlight Mitt’s skipping Ames as a weakness rather than a tactical decision. They will treat it like a loss. They will write his Iowa obituary. He will be called “elitist.”
If Mitt asked me, I’d say “Wait to see who will run and wait to see if you can predict a winner.”
May 28th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
# Smack1968 Says:
Iowa is TPAW country!!
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All 6% of them…..
May 28th, 2011 at 1:31 pm
Then why did he go all in on ethanol subsidies? That was a DUMB move that is highly unlikely to pay off for him in IA if he skips the straw poll. And, it certainly won’t help him elsewhere. That was his first major unforced error since…well, May 12th
May 28th, 2011 at 1:34 pm
# Smack1968 Says:
Iowa is TPAW country!!
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All 6% of them…..
*******
…..Or 5% and 4% that want to sleep.
May 28th, 2011 at 1:42 pm
“Then why did he go all in on ethanol subsidies?”
Because contrary to what some people try to say, Romney actually does have sound principles. And among those principles is the idea that you can’t honestly call for energy independence while knocking the best alternative energy source currently in developement.
May 28th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
I think he will play at Ames, and I think he should. Ames is more about money and organization than anything else. Whoever wins Ames will get a big boost, even Romney.
May 28th, 2011 at 2:07 pm
I agree with Wingnut about his ethanol support. As a Mitthead, dumb move. Ethanol is proven as a waste of money and effort.
As to Ames, perhaps not a bad move to sit it out. If he participates, he has high expectations, and is just another candidate in the poll. If he sits it out, he may get more media coverage as one who is not participating. He would be on TV and in interviews everywhere. There would be a good chance for a second tier candidate to emerge and knock off his strongest competitor(s) in TPaw and Perry. He would set expectations low in IA. On the other hand, if the field comes in fragmentated and he shows well without participating it would be a big victory.
May 28th, 2011 at 2:32 pm
There’s really not much upside to Romney competing at Ames. Some of his other supporters are worried that if he doesn’t compete, someone else will win, and they will get the momentum. Does anyone remember that he won it last time…yet to read the press coverage at the time, you would think Huckabee, a distant second, was the actual victor. What’s the point of winning the thing if it won’t help your campaign. Then there’s the risk that he’d lose. As much as I’d like to see him enter and win it, I can definitely see why he wouldn’t bother this time.
May 28th, 2011 at 3:01 pm
Regarding his stance on ethanol, some are making it sound like he just decided to come out in favor of it. Whether one agrees with ethanol subsidies or not, he had the same position in 2008 and it’s his stance in his book as it is now. Personally, I’d have to understand a bit more about the issue before passing judgement either way.
May 28th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
I wish there was a candidate I agreed with 100%. Unfortunately, I decided not to run. This is one area that Romney and I do not agree.
May 28th, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Romney’s decision isn’t carved in stone just yet. I was hoping Romney to win the Ames too… we’ll see how things turn out.
May 28th, 2011 at 5:58 pm
I hope Romney sits it out on the Ames Straw Poll. Iowa doesn’t figure into his overall strategy of winning the nomination so there’s no need to waste money and time that place. At most, Romney will do the bare minimum so that he doesn’t get completely destroyed in the Straw Poll, but not major effort.
The state is wholly owned by evangelical/born again voting block and no amount of time or money is going to significantly change people who are simply going to vote for another traditional christian. Sorry folks, but somebody has to tell the truth on this one.
May 28th, 2011 at 6:00 pm
The winner of the Iowa Caucuses has finished #1 or #2 at Ames for the entire history of Ames. Winning Ames has a definite advantage in the state of Iowa. I think Romney can win Iowa and I think it would be smart to try. Winning Ames is the first step. If he skips Ames, I think it is a sign he will not be trying to win the Iowa Caucus (a big victory for TPaw and the other challengers).
May 28th, 2011 at 6:02 pm
21 – I disagree. If he wins Iowa and NH, he wins the nomination. Iowa isn’t necessary to win, but it would allow him to start focusing exclusively on Obama earlier on if he won Iowa. He should try for Iowa until it is clear it would be a battle to do so (he shouldn’t sacrifice NH for IA.).
May 28th, 2011 at 6:43 pm
No need to compete at Ames. One thing Mittens is renowned for is learning from past mistakes.
May 28th, 2011 at 7:09 pm
In 2007, the Romney campaign spent a lot of money on buses to take people to Ames and paid for their tickets to enter the poll. Some Ron Paul supporters took advantage of that by encouraging people to ride Mitt’s bus and let Mitt’s campaign pay for their tickets, and then vote for Paul.
So I would advise Mitt to go to Ames and compete there, but not to spend excessively there with the hope of winning. He should go and make his case, but try to lower people’s expectations on the grounds that he isn’t spending the money to bus thousands of people to Ames this time.
Ames is not the be-all and end-all of a presidential campaign. The last GOP nominee came in 10th at Ames, and the guys who came in 3rd, 4th, and 6th didn’t even stay in the race long enough to compete in the Iowa caucus. And only once has the winner of the Ames straw poll been elected president in the ensuing year’s election.
May 28th, 2011 at 7:14 pm
“Some Ron Paul supporters took advantage of that by encouraging people to ride Mitt’s bus and let Mitt’s campaign pay for their tickets, and then vote for Paul.”
Which is borderline theft. But point made: If these polls are to maintain their legitimacy, they have to find a way to prevent such deception.