Paul Ryan has surely heard the tap, tap, tap of destiny over the last week, which has seen more than a half dozen major media outlets ramp up speculation that he will make a run at the White House, whether he likes it or not. The grassroots pressure mirrors and, in some ways, surpasses that which followed Chris Christie for most of last year. Ryan threads have garnered several hundred comments at Hot Air over the last few days. Here’s Ryan receiving a standing O at one of his “contentious”, packed, townhall meetings.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv4I8M-gL0U&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
Ace speculates that, really, Ryan has to run doesn’t he?
The better Trump does in early polling (and he just slid a little bit), the more likely it is that Paul Ryan will enter the race.That’s my suspicion. Ryan is all about the Plan and Trump has already rejected it as “too extreme.”
I think Ryan is going to realize that no one, no one will run on his plan, because no one else can. They will give it, at best, weak-tea “I’ll look at it” statements like Boehner does (“I’m not wedded to it”).
This is not purely a matter of courage. Ryan has spent eight or ten years becoming an expert on budget and entitlements and fiscal policy. No one else can simply become an expert in a few short months…
If he’s serious about this — and I think he is — he’s going to have to put aside personal concerns and do what a statesman does: Run, not because he wants to run, but run, because we need him to.
The obvious exception to this is Mitch Daniels. Presumably, Mitch Daniels can, in fact, get up to speed on the budget in a few short months. He was head of OMB earlier in the decade and a successful businessman in the 90s. Transitioning back to national fiscal policy shouldn’t be too much of a stretch. Daniels’ decision to sign that “sweeping abortion bill” is probably a sign that he’s running and maybe he’ll be “the guy”. But it’s worth noting: Ryan has already risen. Go to google news and you will find 100 pages of Paul Ryan news stories just in the last 4 days. This is Donald Trump and Sarah Palin territory and without any of the gimmicks. He has, in preliminary polling, 3 times Daniels support and he has a natural outlet to Chris Christie’s (who will certainly not run) base. Mitch Daniels will be starting from his own 15; Ryan’s already in field goal range. I’ll finish with a comment from the Ace of Spades thread.
I attended a town hall meeting yesterday with Chuck Grassley…At the end, I had a chance to speak to him one on one, and my parting words were, “if you happen to bump into Paul Ryan, would you ask him to run for President in 2012?” He told me that at least 10 people a day tell him the same thing and he assured me he would…
April 29th, 2011 at 6:07 pm
Go Ryan: The White Knight!
April 29th, 2011 at 6:11 pm
He’s be a great VP to my man mitch
April 29th, 2011 at 6:12 pm
He may run, but does he want to give up his safe congressional seat? What if he loses the nomination, where does he go from there? As a supporter, I rather have him there to continue to speak out against the injustices of the Obama Administration.
April 29th, 2011 at 6:23 pm
But what has Ryan actually done? Sure, he wrote an impressive budget reform bill that does a great job of sticking it in the eye of the democrats, but until that passes, and it won’t, what has he actually accomplished?
“This is Donald Trump and Sarah Palin territory and without any of the gimmicks.”
Really? And that giant budget bill, while laudible, just doesn’t stand a chance of passing during this Congress. That just reeks of gimmickry.
I know that you can’t settle down on a candidate and keep grasping at candidates. Romney ’08, then a long stint with Pawlenty until you soured on that, now Ryan. And your track record isn’t so hot as you were really p’d off at Romney for endorsing Christie in the primary. I am glad, thought, that you laid it out there that Ryan is the man. I’ll make sure to laugh at you when he doesn’t win the nomination. (even though I like him and think that he is a future star). Maybe Metro will stop touting you as the smartest writer at Race, finally.
April 29th, 2011 at 6:26 pm
But for Pete’s sake, let’s not squander this opportunity to win the WH by chasing a Congressman.
April 29th, 2011 at 6:42 pm
Ryan would be a better choice for 2016 if Obama is re-elected next year. Having a congressman take on an incumbent President isn’t a smart thing.Ryan, Christie, McDonnell, Haley(Nikki), Rubio, Rand Paul will probably all be top candidates in 2016 or 2020.
April 29th, 2011 at 6:44 pm
Craig,
He wouldn’t be giving up his seat. Ron Paul ran for both simultaneously. Biden ran for Senator and VP and won both. There’s nothing that prevents anyone from winning two federal offices at once. He’d just, obviously, need to choose which of the two he’d accept if he won. Which would be a no-brainer. And while Ryan’s ostensibly in a swing district, he won 68% of the vote last time and has never won less than 57% of the vote (his first race). There’s approximately no danger Ryan would be giving up anything.
Craig’s Purple Handbag,
I don’t “settle” on candidates. I evaluate circumstances. The circle of Republicans I have liked hasn’t much changed in the last 4 years. You can find posts or comments sections with me touting Ryan all the way back in 2007 and 2008. Three years ago, my list of favorite Republicans- and again, I know for a fact I made comments to this effect here- was something like this: 1. Bobby Jindal, 2. Tim Pawlenty, 3. Paul Ryan, 4. Mitt Romney
Now my list is something like this:
1. Bobby Jindal, 2. Paul Ryan, 3. Marco Rubio, 4. Tim Pawlenty
And given that I’d never heard of Marco Rubio 3 years ago, I think this is a fairly consistent list. Mitt would probably still find his way into the top 10 despite the fact that I think he’s a terribly problematic nominee.
I’m fairly confident you’re wrong about my take on Romney’s Christie endorsement. I decided who I was voting for IN the voting booth during that primary (and again, I made posts to that effect here). I interviewed Lonegan and liked him but I very nearly voted for Christie. Why didn’t I? Well, I thought Christie was a problematic candidate who was running a fairly weak campaign. And he was. It wasn’t until that fat joke Christie made a few weeks before the election that we saw any hint of the Christie who emerged after the election. It could be that he was right to hide his more confrontational persona but at any rate tons of conservatives had doubts about the Christie who was fairly described as milquetoast.
April 29th, 2011 at 6:52 pm
“Biden ran for Senator and VP and won both”
Delaware state law allowed him to. Wisconsin law could be different.
April 29th, 2011 at 7:06 pm
Sean,
I wasn’t aware these were state laws but you may be right. At any rate Wisconsin primary deadlines are in like July, at which point the nomination will be set. It’s possible that Ryan would have to abandon his seat if he won the nomination, but he clearly won’t have to just to enter the primary. I like what Ryan’s doing in Congress as much as anyone else but once he has the nomination I like his odds of becoming President enough to risk losing him in the House. People who performed well on the national stage and have done just fine in the past out of office. Even after a respectable loss in 12′ Ryan would be sure to end up on the ticket in 16′ or at least in the cabinet.
April 29th, 2011 at 7:13 pm
Matthew, who’s your VP pick for Ryan?
April 29th, 2011 at 7:18 pm
Ryan/Thompson!
April 29th, 2011 at 7:19 pm
It’s not a question of whether he knows the budget. The question is whether he can explain it to the average person. Ryan sounds a little wonkish about it. That’s where Gingrich went wrong. You have to explain it in a way that people can understand.
April 29th, 2011 at 7:37 pm
Metro,
I believe in flexibility for a VP, especially when your nominee is somewhat risky. For instance, how will Ryan’s extreme youth play? There are two ways I could see this playing out. One, maybe Ryan announces, rides something like an Obama-wave for months, wins Iowa, nearly beats Romney in NH, and looks inevitable- and then people take a second look. With Obama that second look was Hillary’s 3am and Jeremiah Wright. With Ryan, maybe he looks like JFK for awhile, and then people start to get nagging worries that he’s Quayle. And he hobbles to the nomination, like Obama did. In that case Ryan, like Obama, would have to pick a seasoned hand. Daniels would be a good fit. Huntsman too because Ryan seems to have little interest in foreign affairs. Two, maybe Ryan announces, gets some traction, but the broader party and public remains unsold for awhile. They worry about his age immediately. They think he talks too fast. He doesn’t sound scary but maybe his budget’s scary? And gradually, as the campaign progresses, Ryan convinces them, that no he’s not too young, no he’s not a trying to throw grandma from the train- he’s a pleasant, bold, young man who knows what he’s doing. This is more like the Reagan path who took a LONG time to sell people. In this situation, I think Ryan has pretty broad discretion. He might even be able to get away with another absurdly young wonk like Jindal or Rubio- though two 40ish Catholics, one of whom is a minority, sounds like a little too much for today’s GOP. I rather like a Christie selection in this scenario. The gentlemanly, civil Ryan at the top, and the confrontational Christie at the bottom. That’s pretty much the ideal formulation for any ticket. The President above the fray, the VP in the mud.
April 29th, 2011 at 7:49 pm
I’m keeping my powder dry tonight when it comes to the Christie,Ryan,Daniels,J.Bush establishment faction out of respect to Daniels. I will also give him the respect he deserves the day he announces that he is opening up an exploratory committee, which should be next week.
I know that Daniels is TPAW’s biggest threat to become the candidate to face and defeat Romney when it becomes 1 on 1….however….
..at some point this lovefest for this faction will be challenged by Smackdaddy
..but tonight is not the night.
Job well done Mitch.
April 29th, 2011 at 10:24 pm
Really? I must be missing all this Ryan groundswell among the grass roots. Where is it at?
April 29th, 2011 at 10:53 pm
4 – Very good post. I like Ryan A LOT, but he really hasn’t done a whole lot more than talk the good talk. What record does he have to run on? And if he runs he will have gaffes. It is inevitable. Does he really want to take that chance when the prospects of a win are actually pretty slim?
April 30th, 2011 at 1:02 am
More wishful thinking by people unhappy with the current choices. When people compare these unknowns with Huckabee’s run in 2007/2008 they forget one thing. Governor Huckabee had visited the state scores of times before his numbers went up from 2%.
Even Romney appears to be blowing off Iowa. Though he announced his exploratory committee, he has only been to Iowa once since 2008, I believe. Huckabee has been here many times. Romney had an unbelievable presence here in Iowa in 2006! and 2007. He is nowhere to be found. Neither has Ryan come to town. If anybody is going to break into the top 4, I think it will be TPAW, who though he keeps repeating the same speeches over and over again, at least is coming to Iowa on a regular basis.
April 30th, 2011 at 8:14 am
I don’t think Romney, Pawlenty, or Cain would have any trouble with the budget either…
April 30th, 2011 at 8:20 am
Shedlock……Romney isn’t “blowing off” Iowa. He’s trying to avoid the overkill and peaking too early that plagued him last time.
Some people learn from their mistakes.
Besides, Romney isn’t trying to make a buck off of the Iowans like Huck is.
As a side note, you may have noticed that Romney has closed the gap with Huckabee in recent Iowa polls as well as those in South Carolina.
I think it’s a little to early to say Romney is blowing off the state in view of the fact that he’s competative there as is without camping out on the front lawn…
April 30th, 2011 at 8:56 am
Romney was in Iowa alot in 2006 and 2007 because he was trying to make himself known to the public. Name ID isn’t a problem this time for him.
April 30th, 2011 at 10:01 am
Hey I just thought of a great ticket:
Anybody/Rubio!
Remember that folks.