Quinnipiac Pennsylvania Political Survey
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
- Approve 42% (51%) [44%]
- Disapprove 53% (44%) [43%]
Among Democrats
- Approve 76% (81%) [72%]
- Disapprove 18% (14%) [17%]
Among Republicans
- Approve 9% (15%) [18%]
- Disapprove 89% (80%) [75%]
Among Independents
- Approve 37% (50%) [41%]
- Disapprove 57% (46%) [42%]
Among Men
- Approve 35% (47%) [43%]
- Disapprove 60% (49%) [43%]
Among Women
- Approve 48% (55%) [45%]
- Disapprove 47% (39%) [42%]
Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President… If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
- Republican candidate 41% (39%) [37%]
- Barack Obama 40% (45%) [41%]
- Depends on candidate (vol.) 13% (11%) [14%]
Among Democrats
- Barack Obama 78% (82%) [77%]
- Republican candidate 9% (7%) [7%]
- Depends on candidate (vol.) 11% (7%) [9%]
Among Republicans
- Republican candidate 84% (87%) [81%]
- Barack Obama 4% (4%) [5%]
- Depends on candidate (vol.) 8% (8%) [11%]
Among Independents
- Republican candidate 36% (33%) [36%]
- Barack Obama 29% (43%) [32%]
- Depends on candidate (vol.) 23% (19%) [21%]
Among Men
- Republican candidate 45% (41%) [39%]
- Barack Obama 33% (42%) [41%]
- Depends on candidate (vol.) 16% (11%) [13%]
Among Women
- Barack Obama 45% (48%) [42%]
- Republican candidate 37% (37%) [36%]
- Depends on candidate (vol.) 12% (11%) [14%]
Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
- Yes/Deserves 42% (48%) [44%]
- No/Does not 52% (45%) [45%]
Among Democrats
- Yes/Deserves 77% (82%) [76%]
- No/Does not 16% (12%) [14%]
Among Republicans
- Yes/Deserves 6% (7%) [9%]
- No/Does not 91% (86%) [84%]
Among Independents
- Yes/Deserves 37% (47%) [40%]
- No/Does not 56% (42%) [40%]
Among Men
- Yes/Deserves 35% (44%) [44%]
- No/Does not 60% (48%) [44%]
Among Women
- Yes/Deserves 48% (51%) [44%]
- No/Does not 46% (42%) [46%]
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
- Approve 44% (44%) [39%]
- Disapprove 26% (24%) [29%]
Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator… If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
- Bob Casey 46% (45%) [43%]
- Republican 34% (35%) [35%]
- Depends on candidate (vol.) 9% (9%) [11%]
Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
- Yes/Deserves 48% (46%) [40%]
- No/Does not 31% (28%) [33%]
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator?
- Approve 43% (41%)
- Disapprove 25% (21%)
What do you think is more important, to protect the right of Americans to own guns or to control gun ownership?
- Protect rights 48%
- Control ownership 47%
Among Democrats
- Protect rights 29%
- Control ownership 66%
Among Republicans
- Protect rights 69%
- Control ownership 28%
Among Independents
- Protect rights 49%
- Control ownership 44%
Among Men
- Protect rights 58%
- Control ownership 35%
Among Women
- Protect rights 39%
- Control ownership 56%
Among Gun Owners (43%)
- Protect rights 68%
- Control ownership 28%
Among Non-Gun Owners (54%)
- Protect rights 32%
- Control ownership 62%
Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
- Doing the right thing 30% (40%) [38%]
- Should not be involved 64% (52%) [56%]
Among Democrats
- Doing the right thing 26% (29%) [27%]
- Should not be involved 72% (61%) [68%]
Among Republicans
- Doing the right thing 36% (55%) [54%]
- Should not be involved 60% (36%) [41%]
Among Independents
- Doing the right thing 29% (39%) [40%]
- Should not be involved 62% (54%) [54%]
Among Men
- Doing the right thing 36% (47%) [44%]
- Should not be involved 58% (46%) [50%]
Among Women
- Doing the right thing 25% (32%) [33%]
- Should not be involved 70% (57%) [61%]
Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by using military force in Libya now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Libya now?
- Doing the right thing 27%
- Should not be involved 68%
Among Democrats
- Doing the right thing 31%
- Should not be involved 65%
Among Republicans
- Doing the right thing 25%
- Should not be involved 71%
Among Independents
- Doing the right thing 23%
- Should not be involved 72%
Among Men
- Doing the right thing 32%
- Should not be involved 64%
Among Women
- Doing the right thing 23%
- Should not be involved 72%
Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand?
- Repeal it 52% (48%) [45%]
- Let it stand 40% (42%) [45%]
Among Democrats
- Repeal it 24% (22%) [22%]
- Let it stand 66% (69%) [68%]
Among Republicans
- Repeal it 76% (81%) [73%]
- Let it stand 17% (12%) [20%]
Among Independents
- Repeal it 59% (47%) [42%]
- Let it stand 35% (40%) [45%]
Among Men
- Repeal it 55% (54%) [45%]
- Let it stand 38% (38%) [45%]
Among Women
- Repeal it 49% (43%) [44%]
- Let it stand 41% (46%) [46%]
Survey of 1,366 registered voters was conducted April 19-25, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 8-14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 6-13, 2010 are in square brackets.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:58 pm
Well, this poll necessitates a rating change on Race 4 2012′s Electoral College Projection. Based on Obama’s -11% approval rating in the state (confirmd by two different polls from two different polling outfits), PA has to be moved to “Tossup.”
April 28th, 2011 at 4:03 pm
Yes, Kavon! Go PA!
April 28th, 2011 at 4:09 pm
I wonder how Trump would do in PA?
He’s now gotten to the top at RCP’s national average which could bode well for him in PA which has a lot of the entire country’s demographics.
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination Polling Data
Spread
RCP Average 3/31 – 4/26
Trump Huckabee Romney Palin Gingrich Paul Bachmann
Pawlenty Daniels Santorum
17.3 16.6 15.6 9.9 8.4 6.0 3.8
3.7 2.8 2.2
Trump +0.7 ..shocking?
April 28th, 2011 at 4:13 pm
Devastating numbers for Obama; he cannot win the Presidency without Pennsylvania; no Democrat has won the Presidency without winning Pennsylvania since 1948, when Dewey did beat Truman in the Keystone State.
If we take Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, then we’ll win the Presidency.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:21 pm
Not looking good for Obama! Especially with Qunnipiac’s accuracy!
April 28th, 2011 at 4:30 pm
#4 – If we win Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania we can lose Virginia, CO, Iowa, NM, NV, and NH and still win (assuming we win Indiana and NC). Those were all Bush states in either 2000 and/or 2004. Or if we win back Ohio, Indiana, NC, Virginia, and Florida we only need one more Bush state to eclipse 270.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:35 pm
That poll is a thing of beauty!!!
Obama’s toasted . . . and getting crispier by the minute . . . in PA. WOOT WOOT!!
April 28th, 2011 at 4:38 pm
#6:
The good news is that we can probably take at least one of VA (which will probably be red regardless) IA, NM, NV or NH if we are on track to win PA , Oh and FL. I don’t see all those states staying blue when the big purple ones are swinging red.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
I may chane my map soon, as well painting PA red.
By the way, Huck polls best by far there among our candidates in the primary.
And ties with Mitt in the general versus Obama in PA if I recall correctly.
http://mjosephsheppardrecoveringliberal.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/snipmap.jpg
April 28th, 2011 at 4:47 pm
chane = change
April 28th, 2011 at 4:47 pm
I’d be cautious about writing Obama’s obituary in PA. I lived in the state for the first 23 years of my life. Never underestimate the power of the unions to find votes in Philly. I was amped about George Bush’s chances in 2004 but it just wasn’t to be.
I wouldn’t count on Pennsylvania doing anything but staying blue in a presidential election until I actually see it happen.
This is the same state where Bush/Cheney wasted millions of dollars in 2000 and 2004. This was the state where redneck anti-Obama sentiment was going to supposedly give Obama a run for his money, especially considering how poorly he did in the primary. In the general election, the voters came home to Obama, by double digits.
It doesn’t make any difference that Obama is at 42 percent approval. He could be at 35 percent approval and still win – because the blue collar voters will hate the Republican candidate MORE than Obama (regardless of who it is) – once the unions and special interests spend millions of bucks trying to tie him to the national party.
I’ve seen it happen. Over and over again. It sucks.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:49 pm
Ok, Adam has convinced me to keep it blue.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:49 pm
This follows the PPP poll that had Romney beating Obama in PA
April 28th, 2011 at 4:54 pm
I thought the Senate race between Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak would be more GOP-lop-sided. I’ll have to take Adam X’s word for it.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:55 pm
This poll is so bad for Obama (in a state he won), I have to suspect a little. But if true, he is in serious trouble. It’s hard to see how wins without PA, and he seems to be having particular trouble here.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:58 pm
Toomey was leading by 5-10 points until Sestak tied him to the national party and closed the gap to two points in the final week of the campaign.
And the electorate in 2010 is not going to be the same as the electorate in 2012.
April 28th, 2011 at 5:10 pm
16
I think the electorate will be slightly more liberal in 2012. Only because 2010 was so GOP lopsided.
In 2012, Obama’s machine and the DNC will make sure Republicans look as bad as they can make them look.
April 28th, 2011 at 5:11 pm
Adam makes a good point. There are certain places like Cook County, IL and Philly, where Democrats have a conjurers’ ability to crank out just enough votes.
If I were the cynical type, I might wonder how that happens.
April 28th, 2011 at 5:13 pm
At this point, if I were trying to come up with weightings for 2012, I’d probably split the difference between 2010 and 2008, which would probably create a pretty normal model.
Since neither party is currently riding the sort of wave they had then, using ’08 or ’10 unmodified would be stupid.
April 28th, 2011 at 5:17 pm
Although I think the political landscape will be different than 2004, I think the results will be similar. Maybe a little more toward the GOP than 2004.
April 28th, 2011 at 5:26 pm
PA consists of a lot of culturally conservative Reagan/Clinton Democrats.
I think that people here took a flyer on BHO because of the lousy economy in 2008. Things are worse now. I just don’t see them giving him another chance.
April 28th, 2011 at 5:41 pm
Lots of speculation here, but it’s important to stay empirical. In 2004, Bush lost PA by 2 points. In 2010, Toomey won PA by 2 points. A county-by-county comparison of those two races shows that the Reagan Democrat counties that everyone is talking about — the Jack Murtha center of the state — fell into place in the Toomey/Sestak race pretty much identically to the way it did in 2004. The reason the GOP gained four points statewide is due to the populous counties in the eastern part of the state, particularly those that comprise the suburban Philadelphia region. Those counties were the key to PA turning red.
That’s why all the hand wringing about Reagan Democrats abandoning the GOP over trade or Ryanomics or whatever is sort of missing the point. I mean, sure, those voters COULD abandon the GOP, but the national polls suggest that Ryanomics is surprisingly popular among voters, and even among seniors. But the keys to the Keystone State lie with suburban voters, who didn’t vote for Bush, but who gave Toomey and Corbett victories last year, and who also gave Kasich, Walker, and Prosser their victories elsewhere in the Rust Belt.
April 28th, 2011 at 5:42 pm
Jonathan: “The good news is that we can probably take at least one of VA (which will probably be red regardless) IA, NM, NV or NH if we are on track to win PA , Oh and FL.”
The same type of candidate who can (pretty much) sweep the industrial Midwest by winning the suburbs (fiscally hardcore and socially conservative in a non-threatening way) would also probably win NH,VA,NC,FL and could win NV and CO (though we wouldn’t need them if we got the others).
April 28th, 2011 at 6:05 pm
Dave,
You have, again, confirmed what many of the mighty minds on this site have been saying for a while now: the 2012 election will be won in the metropolitan suburbs. The type of candidate who can win NH (which is basically 1 huge suburb of Boston) is exactly the type of candidate the GOP needs. As Bob said, fiscally hardcore and not over the top social conservative. This year the GOP electorate needs to follow the lead of the Granite State and not some right-wing fringe state (or 2).
April 28th, 2011 at 7:19 pm
I still don’t think the GOP can win Nevada. Picture the shenanigans that went on at the casinos to get out the vote for Reid X1000!!!
April 28th, 2011 at 7:23 pm
From my #2 post:
“2012 Republican Presidential Nomination Polling Data
RCP Average 3/31 – 4/26
Trump 17.3
Huck 16.6
Mitt 15.6
Palin 9.9″
====
Well, thanks to the new Fox poll out this afternoon, Trump should be behind Huck again when they post the new averages tonight.
April 29th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
Craig,
I don’t think we’ll win nevada either…but i don’t think it’s going to be because of the casino tactics. It’s different when they are voting for someone in their own state, and when they are voting for a national figure not from their state. They knew they could trust Reid to deliver the pork. Presidents don’t have much to do with pork…and republicans are better for the business side of things. But yeah, we’re not gonna win nevada. We can write off colorado and new mexico as well. That makes it hard to win without winning PA. But we could squeek out a win in iowa and several other places that aren’t normal if things go right.