Hawkeye/University of Iowa Republican Iowa Caucus
- Mike Huckabee 16%
- Mitt Romney 15%
- Sarah Palin 10%
- Tim Pawlenty 5%
- Newt Gingrich 4%
- Michele Bachmann 3%
- Ron Paul 2%
- Mitch Daniels 0%
- Not sure / Someone else – 37%
Among Republicans
- Mitt Romney 24%
- Mike Huckabee 23%
- Sarah Palin 15%
- Newt Gingrich 9%
- Tim Pawlenty 8%
- Ron Paul 2%
- Bachmann – 0%
- Mitch Daniels – 0%
- Not sure / Someone else – 19%
Among Non-Republicans
- Mitt Romney 17%
- Mike Huckabee 16%
- Ron Paul 13%
- Sarah Palin 11%
- Newt Gingrich 9%
- Michele Bachmann – 3%
- Tim Pawlenty – 3%
- Mitch Daniels – 1%
Survey of 352 voters was taken April 4-11 and released on 4/27. The MoE is 5.2%.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:21 pm
I’m not sure how Romney leads among Republicans and among non-Republicans, but trails overall. Since Romney and Huck are separated by just 1% in every one of those three data sets, I’m assuming it’s a rounding issue.
Which means essentially Romney and Huckabee are tied in Huckabee’s absolute must win state.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:23 pm
Holy Smokes! Romney neck and neck with Huckabee in Iowa? He leads among Republicans???
First South Carolina and now this…
Huckabee is so screwed.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
Outlier. Period.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
This is starting to look like a Romney clean sweep through Florida folks!
April 28th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
No Trump?
Good.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:26 pm
I love how many of the polls that are not showing positive for Huckabee are considered Outliers anymore Craig. I mean – really? If this was the first one to show data like this I’d be right there with you, but it appears that Mitt is getting rather close to Huckabee in this prized first state.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Craig (#3) – at least you hope it is. Or should I say, “they are.” Heh. Doesn’t bode well for your guy that a couple polls now show Romney super close in Iowa.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:26 pm
2. No CF
Huckabee isn’t running.
It’s Romney v Palin …are you ready to RRRRUMBBBBLE!
April 28th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
Oh I can explalin this on Smack’s behalf. Not nearly enough people in IA have heard about RomneyCare. No matter how many people try to hit him on it and bring it up everytime his name is mentioned and that IA democratic parties were on news casts everywhere talking about the birthday of RomneyCare……there is still plenty of time to do complete saturation of trying to weigh him down with that. I’m not concerned for you Smack.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
8
“Huckabee isn’t running.”
And it looks like more and more people are realizing that, including the folks in Iowa.
I told you all a month ago…the longer Huck sits out, the longer people start walking away. Witness and watch, witness and watch…
April 28th, 2011 at 2:32 pm
Uh oh, Huck better get his butt to Iowa and start kissing squirrels.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:32 pm
OUCH! So much for that 8 point lead, huh Craig?
April 28th, 2011 at 2:33 pm
RomneyCare makes Romney dead in the water. Huck is unstoppable.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Iowans are starting to realize their mistake in 08 by jumping the gun and voting for Huckabee over Romney. They knew in their hearts that Romney was the guy, but fell for the excitement of the moment.
They’re not going to make the same mistake again for the enormous fraud that Mike Huckabee is.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
What the heck happened in IA? Did the homeschoolers finally figure out how to spell Clemmons?
April 28th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
GO ROMNEY!!!! Romney has every state locked up!!!!
April 28th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Rombot Matt,
Real Clear Politics is not using this c0llege poll outlier.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
Matt C,
How many sock puppets do you have on your own thread this time?
I count four.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
These are the best numbers I have seen for TPAW in Iowa.
Today has been TPAW’s best day period when it comes to poll numbers.
The TPAW SURGE continues and none of you notice….of course.
Ben,
I’m not concern with Mitt in Iowa. Iowa is TPAW country. TPAW numbers are rising. 8% among GOP in Iowa with 50% of Iowa not having a opinion yet on TPAW???
Look out baby..TPAW surge is about to crush you all.
What happen to Bachmann?
What happen to the narrative TPAW is not catching on?
Bbawwwwaaaaaa!!!!
TPAW SURGE!!!
April 28th, 2011 at 2:38 pm
Or has Shedlock been careless at the local YMCA a few too many times, allowing the kids to see his tattoo of Huck?
April 28th, 2011 at 2:38 pm
Craig –
Did you just call me a sock puppet?
April 28th, 2011 at 2:39 pm
If Huckabee walks away from his $500k job and potential endorsement money that is tied to it, it will not be there for him if he doesn’t win the White House. The only thing that might keep him from staying at Fox is the specter of a Mormon candidate. Still, I think that Huckabee’s skeletons in the closet will prove too much. A few commercials from the families of the police officers killed in Washington would just ruin Huckabee’s brand. I don’t think he wants to expose his carefully cultivated brand again. The Seattle police killings were post-2008 primaries, so it would be new political fodder this time around.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
Calling a 5% increase for Pawlenty a “surge”, is like calling me a Huckabee fan. Except Huckabee is a progressive hillbilly conartist.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
Pawlenty is at 5%, and somebody is calling it a surge? I am hoping for a surge in his personality so I can stay awake when he speaks.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
Republicans:
Romney – 24%
Huckabee – 23%
Non-Republicans:
Romney – 17%
Huckabee – 16%
HUCKABOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMM! LOL!!!
April 28th, 2011 at 2:51 pm
Greg, FYI Huck didnt release the guy who killed the seattle police officers. He reduced his sentence and the next governor released him.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:52 pm
19 – Sometimes I wonder if you are being serious.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:54 pm
26 – He made him eligible for parole
April 28th, 2011 at 2:54 pm
Greg Says:
April 28th, 2011 at 2:39 pm
“If Huckabee walks away from his $500k job and “potential endorsement money that is tied to it, it will not be there for him if he doesn’t win the White House.”
Greg,
He would make three to four times that as there would be a bidding war between Fox, CNN, and MSNBC.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
26.Huckarubio Says:
April 28th, 2011 at 2:51 pm
“Greg, FYI Huck didnt release the guy who killed the seattle police officers. He reduced his sentence and the next governor released him.”
RZ,
That should hopefully make Greg happy.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:59 pm
Rombot,
The 16 year old black kid was given 108 years.
Huck cut it in half.
You think Obama will use that against Mike?
Get real for just once. Ok?
April 28th, 2011 at 2:59 pm
Does that make you feel better about it Craig? This one situation is not my biggest concern – it is the mind set behind it and the many others that he did.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:00 pm
31 – You know that is a lie. That has been proven to be a lie many, many times. Yet Huck supporters still hold onto it. Clemmons had a long history of violent offenses and his sentence was fully justified.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
For those who are inclined to believe Craig’s blatant lies in 31, I give you this:
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/michaelmedved/2009/12/01/huckabee_mishandles_cop-murderer_clemmons_sentence_commutation_guest_blog_by_diane_medved
April 28th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
Seattle Killer articles like this:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010385617_webmansought29.html
http://www.king5.com/news/local/Suspects-Lenghty-Criminal-Past-in-Arkansas-78182797.html
The second one is just brutal.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
31 – I don’t care who uses it against Huckabee. I care that it was a terrible decision.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Oh c’mon Rombot. Are you telling me that your bowels don’t get all quivery when you hear about how Clemmons found Jesus while in jail? How can you look at that sweet man’s face and not come to the conclusion that Huck did?
April 28th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Wayne Dumond
April 28th, 2011 at 3:04 pm
trouble in paradise.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:04 pm
Without Huckster believing this guy had found God, he wouldn’t have been eligible for parole until 2021, but Huckster commuted his sentence such that he could be eligible in 2004.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:05 pm
As governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee aggressively pushed for the early release of a convicted rapist despite being warned by numerous other women that the convict had sexually assaulted them or their family members, and would likely strike again. The convict went on to rape and murder at least one other woman.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:07 pm
Before the Rombots get too smug, you should not that your guy is also polling about half his tally in ’08 here.
Both Huck and Romney are well off their ’08 results, and that should tell them something. People are shopping, and they should.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:11 pm
Craig never goes shopping without me. No way will we betray Huckabee.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:13 pm
I agree with 42. We have to see whjat happens when Trump officially exits the race, as he will. The guys went through personal bankruptcy 3 times, which is not really even discussed. Is he a guy that we want at the head of our country and economy?
April 28th, 2011 at 3:18 pm
But Matt, your unfaithful eye wanders from one apple to another doesn’t it? Once in love with Huckabee, then a brief affair with Palin, a winter’s romance next to a smoking hot fire with Pawlenty, and now your gaze lingers on Mitch. You need a purple handbag to keep you loyal to your first love.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:19 pm
Craig, were you lying in 31 or not? You’ve been awfully quite lately.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:23 pm
Hi everyone…Remember me??? Pluuuuuuease……Let’s get it right this time…I am not going into the weeds about Huckabee… his record speaks, his pardons speak, his preacher lack there of…credibility speaks and his abuse of the 11th commandment speaks, his raising taxes speaks, his jealousy speaks…and I for one… am speaking…He is not who our country needs to lead us in this troubled economy…We need a private sector business…..proven man…Mass…care? Innovative, got the abusers of the freebie mentally off the hardworking middle income mans back…he led with a plan that was constitutional….and within states rights…Was it perfect???….84% and upward say they like it…Romney to this day has never belittled a single soul…Not even Obama…He is respectful but knows Obama’s policies are weak…He never has put anyone down to elevate himself…People know this man…let’s compare brains …want to??? We don’t need to…His IQ tops them all….So by now…You are saying Oh No…Paulee’s back….Sharing this with you… Mitt Romney climbing cause He really is our best option for 2012…He gets it and is the hardest worker for the Republican Party since 2008….Quietly, humbly, honestly and devoted is how he conducted himself…He knows how to turn red to black…and how to put a team together for the best results…I come here today in remembrance of my dear friend I.Guy….he would be proud me…wait…he is proud of me…I say clearly… Mitt Romney 2012…and one more thing….Truth…is what we need …not lies…not media lies…not post lies..not tweet lies…not FB lies…No lies…We are going to hell in a hand basket…We best get it…or we get four more of Obama….Bye to America as we know it…I pray we stand united for the best person to get us on the right track again…God Bless America….Thanks for letting me share my thoughts….
April 28th, 2011 at 3:26 pm
Well this certainly does tend to make me think those other Iowa polls weren’t total outliers, but I won’t get too pumped about it yet. It is good to see Romney’s numbers climbing in Iowa, but this would most likely change very quickly if Huckabee announced he was running.
Also, we can mock Pawlenty all day long, but he is climbing, and he has put together a organization second only to Romney. I would not be surprised to see him do very well in Iowa.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:27 pm
Hi, Paulee.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:30 pm
49 – You mean the cherry-picked record of Mike Hucabee?
April 28th, 2011 at 3:32 pm
I am soooooooooo tired of reading all of the lies saying Huckabee isn’t running!!!!!!!!!!
Huckabee has not made up his mind yet but rumor is he’s leaning towards a run. His South Carolina “team is ready, willing and waiting on your summer decision!”
April 28th, 2011 at 3:35 pm
Space alien numbers.
Among Republicans
Sarah: 15%
Non-Republicans
Sarah: 11%
overall:
Sarah: 10%
I’m not stuck on Sarah, mind you. She’s got nothing on my wife. But these are really weird numbers. This is like a guy who bats .333 against righties, and .275 against lefties, and then .250 overall. It can’t happen! There are only righties and lefties. Unless an alien is pitching.
There are Republicans, non-Republicans, and then there are . . . . WHAT? I really want to know!
And how cool is it that Sarah is less then the sum of her parts? (Statistically speaking)
Huckabee is more than the sum of his parts? (And who really wants the evidence to disprove that!)
And Romney comes in second in iowa no matter what the people say?! THAT is Iowa, folks.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:38 pm
“Huckabee is more than the sum of his parts?”
Careful now, Huckabee has lots of parts.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:39 pm
4th consecutive Iowa/SC poll that shows Huck collapsing into a tie with Romney, while Mitt has maintained double digit leads in his early states. It is now fair to say Romney is leading all 5 early states of Iowa, SC, NH, NV, and Florida.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:40 pm
http://forum.hucksarmy.com/download/file.php?id=1493
April 28th, 2011 at 3:51 pm
54. You are not taking into account the non-non Republicans who overwhelmingly go for Huck. This poll does not list them, but when the final tally is made, their influence is felt . . . and Huck still comes in first.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:53 pm
chuck’s summer decision. Should I go on an Alaskan cruise or should I visit obama in Kenya?
April 28th, 2011 at 3:57 pm
Still waiting for a response Craig.
April 28th, 2011 at 3:58 pm
Was Mike Huckabee responsible for releasing Maurice Clemmons?
April 28th, 2011 at 3:59 pm
So Craig . . . now we have 2 “outliers” for Iowa in a row, eh?
Remember ARG? http://race42012.com/2011/04/20/poll-watch-arg-gop-iowa-caucus-5/
. . . or is the PPP poll with Romney in 2nd in Iowa (down by more but Romney takes over 1st whenever Huck was removed from that poll) the “one true recent poll?” Something more is happening folks. People are catching on that Mike’s trying to milk his Fox/Book gigs for $$$ and are leaving him in droves. Hard to get people back after crud like that.
His early state strategy is collapsing around him.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:01 pm
59:
Yes he was, along with 1,032 more he is responsible for!
April 28th, 2011 at 4:04 pm
59 – He made him eligible for parole, which led to his release. Quit misleading people.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:05 pm
Granny, Huckabee is not responsible for anything as he is only the second person to walk the earth who was perfect.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:18 pm
Purple Purse,
“But Matt, your unfaithful eye wanders from one apple to another doesn’t it? Once in love with Huckabee, then a brief affair with Palin, a winter’s romance next to a smoking hot fire with Pawlenty, and now your gaze lingers on Mitch.”
Yeah, well, there is no campaign yet, and I’m looking for a President, not a wife.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:21 pm
Good night this is getting really obnoxious.
I’m a Romney fan, but the tone and content of some of you folks out there is getting out of hand. When your guy is doing well, be gracious. When he isn’t, be gracious. Say what’s on your mind, but be nice to Granny T, and tease if you must, but stop using a sledgehammer when tweezers would doo!
April 28th, 2011 at 4:22 pm
“I commuted his sentence to 47 years. Now he did not get off and just walk out the door. All that did was make him parole eligible.”
Translation – I took the cuffs off and showed him the door – but I didn’t open it for him.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:23 pm
I’m trying to tweeze Watchin.
Just feelin’ a little feisty today. Most of the posters know that I’m mild on a majority of the days.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:25 pm
MWS: With Gingrich you could do both. Sort of.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:32 pm
I don’t mind being tweezed. I hate to see the equivalent of the endzone victory dance before the game even starts. Not only is it rude, but it jinxes everything!
April 28th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
Let Romney continue a steady quiet course of crescendo and timing. I am in no hurry, but I do think Huckabee’s numbers would jump up if he did announce. If Pawlenty cleaned huck in Iowa he could give Romney a run.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:57 pm
“I do think Huckabee’s numbers would jump up if he did announce.”
Zeek,
Exactly. Btw, it’s too bad more Rombots couldn’t be like you and Watch
April 28th, 2011 at 5:06 pm
Watch,
“With Gingrich you could do both. Sort of.”
LOL! Well, after so many marriages, someone like me would be about the only way he could still break new ground……
April 28th, 2011 at 5:08 pm
Aw…….Craig – have I fallen off of your list of favorite Rombots?
Was I too feisty today?
April 28th, 2011 at 5:20 pm
Any “Rombot” that disagrees with Craig is bad. Did you or did you not lie about Clemmons craig? That isn’t a personal attack. It is a question. I presented evidence that Clemmons was a lot more than an unfortunate 16 year old black boy with not criminal record. Yet you keep repeating this. Were you or were you not lying?
April 28th, 2011 at 7:50 pm
Huck…that sound you here and that rumble you feel is the Romney Express coming up fast behind you.
You better hurry and get on board or get off the tracks…..or be road kill…
April 28th, 2011 at 9:08 pm
Rombot,
You just proved you don’t know your a…from a hole in the ground! Who are you going to believe people who are huckhaters like you who distort the facts or Mike Huckabee who was there and has the records of Clemmons? Clemmons, a black kid, was given 108 years for several robberies…BTW since you obviously don’t know anything about sentences killers get…that’s a lot more than killers got in Arkansas. Mike Huckabee was asked by the judge and parole board (who knew what Clemmons had done behind bars) to give clemency to Clemmons. Huckabee sent the necessary paperwork thru the normal channels and asked if their was anybody who objected to Clemmons being given clemency. There were NO objections sent back to Huckabee. He reduced the sentence to 46 years, signed the papers and sent them to the parole board who released Clemmons. After 6 mos. to a year, Clemmons broke parole and was sent back to prison in Arkansas. The prosecutor at that time failed to make up the necessary paperwork, and Clemmons was freed. If that prosecutor had just done his duty of making up the paperwork, Clemmons would have been in jail until 2015. The judges in Arkansas gave much longer sentences to black criminals than white criminals because they didn’t have the money to get good lawyers. Huckabee saw this unfair treatment during the thousands of reviews of these type of requests (which was the law that the Gov. look at all of the requests), so he made up for these racist judges by giving the blacks the same amount of time that the whites got for the same offenses. Huckabee is NOT responsible in any way…no matter how much YOU want him to be.. you are a sad and pathetic person!
April 28th, 2011 at 9:13 pm
Did all of you Rombots happen to miss what was said in some of these polls including NH? The question was asked if the people would vote for a Republican who mandated healthcare in their state, and EVERY TIME this question was asked, the overwhelming response was NO by a huger percentage. Don’t you know that there will be lots of ads letting the people know that Romney was this Republican??? who brought forth the healthcare plan, Romneycare, which mandated all people to join it. What do you think those people will think about Romney then???? A lot worse than all the crap you are bringing up about Huckabee!!!! Just wait, Romney will get his during the primaries, and I can’t wait!!!
April 28th, 2011 at 9:18 pm
Don’t get on Craig, Rombot, because you didn’t produce any evidence!!! All you produced were bad reports that weren’t factually correct. These articles were just about as good as Michelle Malkin who immediately blasted Huckabee with the “evidence” from the prosecutor who said he told Huckabee many times not to release Clemmons. Of course, Michelle didn’t contact Huckabee to find out the truth, no she believed the same prosecutor who lied about Huckabee to blame Huckabee for what was his fault. You see, Rombot, this prosecutor was the same one who didn’t file the paperwork which let Clemmons go free. So you just forget about this “evidence” it’s has no more truth to it than all of the horrible Rombot comments against Huckabee in just this one article, not counting the other four or five in the last few days. For example, Huckabee isn’t running, he’s just in for the money….how would any Rombot know if Huckabee is lying or not? They just want to smear his name.
You know when Huckabee has beaten Romney in many polls, I didn’t get on this website and gloat and say the horrible things you people have like Romney is finished, etc. All you are disgusting!
April 28th, 2011 at 9:49 pm
VFT, if you let these idiots inflame your button everytime they open your mouth, you will be here all day. Instead, try to ignore them unless your feeling peckish like me sometimes and want to antagonize them.
April 29th, 2011 at 6:21 am
Yes, Craig, some of the Romney folks could be more courteous, like Zeek, W, and MarK. but then, you could be more like some other people as well. Oh, yeah, I forgot. You’ve been like many of them, simultaneously! You are the original sock puppet puppet puppet puppet puppet puppet puppet puppet puppet. Your posts are roughly the equivalent of dude and Tex combined, and you deign lecture others?
May 11th, 2011 at 8:51 am
[...] Recent polls have placed Mitt within easy striking distance of Mike Huckabee in Iowa. Not to mention the fact that he is the projected winner if Mike Huckabee fails to run — which still is not a sure thing. Mitt also finished second there in 2008. [...]