Strategic National 2012 Ohio Poll
If the 2012 Presidential Primary were held today, and the only candidates running were Michelle Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?
- Mike Huckabee 24.49%
- Newt Gingrich 21.94%
- Sarah Palin 16.33%
- Mitt Romney 13.78%
- Michele Bachmann 5.61%
- Tim Pawlenty 3.57%
- Rick Santorum 2.04%
- Haley Barbour 1.53%
- Jon Huntsman 1.53%
- Undecided 9.18%
If the 2012 Republican U.S. Senate primary was held today, and the only candidates running were Ken Blackwell, Josh Mandel, and Pat Tiberi, for whom would you vote?
- Ken Blackwell 34.18%
- Josh Mandel 17.35%
- Pat Tiberi 16.33%
- Undecided 32.14%
If the 2012 Republican U.S. Senate primary was held today…for whom would you vote?
- Sherrod Brown 45.00%
- Ken Blackwell 32.20%
- Undecided 22.80%
- Sherrod Brown 46.00%
- Pat Tiberi 20.80%
- Undecided 33.20%
- Sherrod Brown 44.20%
- Josh Mandel 21.40%
- Undecided 34.40%
The poll consists of a sample of 500 registered voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.4%.
Inside the numbers:
Senator Sherrod Brown heads into the 2012 election cycle as one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats in the country. This poll shows him in the mid 40s, often the kiss of death for an incumbent at this point in a cycle.
The data confirms previously released public polling showing that Ken Blackwell is the preferred choice of Ohio Republicans. It also shows that he is by far the strongest candidate in the General Election.
It is important to view these findings in proper context. Josh Mandel recently ran statewide and spent considerable resources in his successful 2010 statewide election. Ken Blackwell on the other hand has not run statewide since 2006. The results may be surprising when taking that into consideration.
This poll is probably a snapshot of the ‘floor’ for Blackwell because he has not been in the public eye in Ohio in recent years. He has had no recent visibility, and this general electorate is slightly Democrat in profile. He also shows little residual damage from his bid for Governor with a positive favorable vs. unfavorable rating.
Josh Mandel recently won election for statewide office with a significant victory last fall. In many ways, he should be at the height of his popularity right now, and yet, he garners an anemic 21% of the vote against Sherrod Brown. Mandel also badly trails Blackwell nearly 2-1 in a primary. The weakness of Mandel’s numbers in both this poll and other public polling are noteworthy.
Brown leads the General Election against either potential Republican nominee, but he is in the ‘danger zone’ in the mid 40’s. Blackwell performs 10 points better than Mandel in the General Election, despite not being on the ballot in five years. Mandel’s weakness in both the Primary and General Election could be attributed to only serving on the job a few months, and concern that it would be inappropriate to run for another office so soon. The survey also included Rep. Pat Tiberi. He performed approximately the same as Mandel. This was somewhat surprising given that Mandel was recently elected statewide.
It is clear Ken Blackwell is in a tremendously strong position to win the Republican Primary for US Senate and performs better than any other Republican candidate against Senator Brown.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:18 pm
HUCKABOOM!
(Sorry, folks. I get excited.)
March 31st, 2011 at 2:19 pm
•Mitt Romney 13.78%
..oh my goodness.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:21 pm
•Mike Huckabee 24.49%
•Haley Barbour 1.53%
Noooooooooo. A thousand times no! Huck will not endorse you, Haley.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:23 pm
Good for Gov. Huckabee!
Very impressive and somewhat surprising for Newt.
Isn’t this the state Palin was leading a month back???
Romney fails to impress.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:25 pm
•Sherrod Brown 45.00%
•Ken Blackwell 32.20%
Not as bad as we think.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:27 pm
http://www.lifenews.com/2011/03/24/ohio-pro-life-republican-ken-blackwell-mulls-senate-bid/
March 31st, 2011 at 2:28 pm
Not really surprising to see Romney down here. Ohio is a heavy, heavy Evangelical state. I knew a guy who went there on an LDS mission and was told all the bigoted horror stories from the people he met there.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:37 pm
CF,
Lose the religion card. The whining gets boring.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:37 pm
We need Ohio to beat Obama.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:40 pm
And Ohio will be in late March or April, long after Huckabee is eliminated.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:41 pm
Polling outside of the 5 early states is illogical. To assume that Ohio numbers will be unchanged after the early states is the same as assuming Florida would be Giuliani’s after losing the early states.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:42 pm
Ohio does not matter in the Primary. The race will be essentially over after New Hampshire.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:44 pm
12
No later then Super Tuesday, unless of course Huck decides to linger pathetically again like last time after the nomination is sewn up by a real candidate.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:46 pm
Florida:
Mitt Romney -2
Jeb Bush -3
Rudy Giuliani -6
Mike Huckabee -7
Newt Gingrich -8
Sarah Palin -13
Favorables:
Jeb Bush 44/44
Huckabee 40/39
Romney 39/39
Rudy 37/46
Newt 32/48
Palin 32/60
March 31st, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Romney stays the same, Huckabee drops 2, Gingrich 3, Palin gains 1 point.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:48 pm
13
That wouldn’t surprise me. Huckabee would probably rather see Obama as President for 4 more years over a Mormon.
To Huckabee, four more years of the Obama Misery Index is better than an Eternity knowing that he let a member of “Satan’s Church” take over the Oval Office.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:50 pm
I think Huck wins the Florida primary poll, Steven.
We should know tomorrow about Huck’s home Sunshine State.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:50 pm
Can’t right this one off as some kooky PPP conspiracy.
Mitt has a major problem in the Midwest.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:51 pm
CF,
With the pathetic poor me religion card again.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:52 pm
CF,
So are you going to denigrate and impugn every state where Mitt doesn’t do well?
March 31st, 2011 at 2:53 pm
Another mixed message day in the polls.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:54 pm
18.Matt “MWS” Says:
March 31st, 2011 at 2:50 pm
“Mitt has a major problem in the Midwest.”
HUGE, Matt..
http://monarch.tamu.edu/~smrs/12022930.gif
March 31st, 2011 at 2:54 pm
CF,
Huckabee would support any Republican over Obama…so stop with your lies. BTW, Huckabee hasn’t anything against the Mormon religion, just pandering, untrustworthy, no principles he stands by, Romney.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:56 pm
CF,
Being a Mormon, CF, you should be ashamed of calling your church, Satan’s Church!
March 31st, 2011 at 2:56 pm
Florida will change colors this week. Go Mitt!
March 31st, 2011 at 2:56 pm
If we don’t win Ohio in the general election then Obama is returning to the White House.
I don’t feel comfortable going with any primary candidate who has such tepid appeal among Ohio Republicans…
March 31st, 2011 at 2:59 pm
I still believe Utah poll would show Huckabee at least in a dead heat vs. Obama with the lowest favorables in the country. Mormons don’t like to be ripped in the media or by Evangelicals. ROSS PEROT finished 2nd in Utah in 1992. An Arkansasan can be beaten in Utah by a third party, its been proven before.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:00 pm
27,
Maybe. Except that Utah is only six electoral votes and Ohio is going to be 18.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:01 pm
We still have not started the election yet. I’m not concerned or going to celebrate with these polls. It will be the nastiest GOP primary in our lifetimes, I am sure of that.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:02 pm
Where’s the general election poll from Ohio? Last time I checked Romney was losing by 6, Huckabee by 7.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:02 pm
Why do we need to have a thread for every meaningless poll that comes out saying the exact same thing?
March 31st, 2011 at 3:06 pm
# Vote for Truth Says:
March 31st, 2011 at 2:54 pm
CF,
BTW, Huckabee hasn’t anything against the Mormon religion, just pandering, untrustworthy, no principles he stands by, Romney.
=========================================
There appears no truth in you, Huckabee has always been anti-Mormon, his Mormon slur proofs it. It is one of the reasons I don’t think he will run. He will be shown for the Religious bigot he is. If Huckabee wins the nomination, I will probably vote liberterian rather than for the Huckanut.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:06 pm
30,
Assuming that’s true – then it’s margin of error and essentially the same outcome for both.
Then you take into account intensity and energy of the base. That’s how Bush beat Kerry in 2004. He energized the Evangelical vote.
Romney won’t be able to do that so well.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:09 pm
For all the carping about Huckabee being a religious bigot it’s amazing to me a) how much of the conversation centers around Mormonism from the Romney supporters and b) how often these Romney supporters claim that their enthusiasm for their man has nothing to do with religion.
Just a few observations…
March 31st, 2011 at 3:09 pm
29.Steven S. Says:
March 31st, 2011 at 3:01 pm
“We still have not started the election yet. I’m not concerned or going to celebrate with these polls. It will be the nastiest GOP primary in our lifetimes, I am sure of that.”
===
It won’t if you Rombots stop all your incessant whining about religion and just stick to the issues of the day.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:10 pm
And before anyone whines about me pointing out the obvious remember that it was the Mormon Rombot CF who started the whole thing with the persecution complex.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:11 pm
Florida favorables:
Independents
Romney 43/32 (Dec: 36/51)
Huckabee 38/45 (Dec: 25/62)
General Election
Independents
Obama 41, Romney 39 (Dec: Obama 52, Romney 28)
Obama 50, Huckabee 35 (Dec: Obama 60, Huckabee 24)
March 31st, 2011 at 3:12 pm
“Mitt Romney PACs net another $1.9M”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/52324.html
Impressive. If he can do this well for his PAC before the Primary even begins, I wonder what he can for the American people.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Craig, your man is doing 5 points worse than Romney in your precious new home state of Florida. I thought the people were going to be moving to him in droves. I’m not worried about my religion in this election cycle. Romney can be disliked by Evangelicals in the most Southernest states (Mississippi) in the country and still beat Obama. I guess black prejudice overpowers anti-Mormon bigotry in the South.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Adam X: If we don’t win Ohio in the general election then Obama is returning to the White House. I don’t feel comfortable going with any primary candidate who has such tepid appeal among Ohio Republicans…
OK, then please expound on today’s Florida PPP numbers where Romney’s only down 2% to Obama and Huck is down 7% . . .
Or is Ohio more important that FL to you?!?!
And you’re drawing your conclusion from this PRIMARY nomination poll as opposed to a general election match-up poll like the FL one.
How you like them apples?
March 31st, 2011 at 3:16 pm
And I agree that the Mormon victimization does get old quick (from a Romney Supporter here). We don’t need that to win political debates and it turns people off.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:19 pm
Among FLORIDA Republicans
•Mike Huckabee 63% / (22%) {+38%}
•Mitt Romney 59% / 26% ) {+33%}
Among OHIO Republicans
•Mike Huckabee 69% / 16% {+53%}
•Mitt Romney 55% / 26% ( {+29%}
March 31st, 2011 at 3:20 pm
Thanks, Jeff.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:20 pm
Or is Ohio more important that FL to you?!?!
Ohio IS more important. Bush won Florida by 5 and Ohio by only 2 in 2004.
If we win Ohio, we’ve probably already won Florida.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:20 pm
Was Kavon going to post the FL PPP numbers too? Those are very important because it’s a swing state and an early state (plus, my guy looks the best hands down)
March 31st, 2011 at 3:24 pm
Wow Adam X . . . a lot has changed since 2004. That will be 8 years at the time of the election. And demographic trends have altered the make-up of the state. They’ve also been really hit with unemployment as well and so there will be different motivations for voters than in 2004. That’s a pretty big jump in logic to use a 3% difference in 2004 and say what you said . . .
just sayin . . .
March 31st, 2011 at 3:24 pm
42 million African Americans in this country, 36 million Baptists, 29 million Mainline Christians. 5.8 million Mormons.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:26 pm
March 10-13, 2011
Mike Huckabee 19%, Mitt Romney 18%, Newt Gingrich 16%, Sarah Palin 15%, Ron Paul 7%, Tim Pawlenty 5%,
March 31st, 2011 at 3:29 pm
39.Steven S. Says:
March 31st, 2011 at 3:15 pm
“I guess black prejudice overpowers anti-Mormon bigotry in the South.”
Wow, Steve..
The religion card and the race card in the same sentence. Are you Al Sharpton?
I’m going to stop reading and start ignoring your posts if you don’t knock it off.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:33 pm
46,
Fine. Use 2008. Obama won FL by 2.8 and FL by 4.5. FL was closer to our column.
The electoral map has been pretty static since 2000 as polarization has increased. It’s not to say that it can’t change – but since it’s clear that FL is a bit more Republican than OH, it’s not that much of a stretch to point out that Ohio is the ball game.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:34 pm
Proof is in the Mississippi numbers.
Whites:
Obama Approval 16% Approve, 81% Disapprove
Romney Favorables: 44/37
March 31st, 2011 at 3:35 pm
Damnit – no edit feature.
Obama won FL by 2.8 and OH by 4.5.
The point still remains.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:35 pm
boycott rolling stone
Soon as Huckster balances a checkbook he merits a look at.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:36 pm
tele,
You see tele,
according to Ohio, TPAW is no longer the 3.5% candidate. He is now the…
3.57% candidate.
Another example of..
TPAW RISING!!
March 31st, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Steven S. Says:
March 31st, 2011 at 3:26 pm
March 10-13, 2011
“Mike Huckabee 19%, Mitt Romney 18%, Newt Gingrich 16%, Sarah Palin 15%, Ron Paul 7%, Tim Pawlenty 5%
====
Ok.
•Mike Huckabee 24.49% ..up 5 1/2
•Newt Gingrich 21.94% ..up 6!
•Sarah Palin 16.33% ..up 1 1/3
•Mitt Romney 13.78% ..DOWN 4 PLUS
•Tim Pawlenty 3.57% ..down 1 1/2
1. Where’s Smack for 3-Paw?
2. Is Ron Paul drawing that much from from Willard?
March 31st, 2011 at 3:36 pm
51,
That’s not proof of anything. Obama’s “favorables” are definitely higher in MS than his “approvals” are.
Lots of people claim (for reasons I don’t understand or agree with) to like Obama the man but not his current policies.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Palin’s favorables in Mississippi with whites: 60/32
Gingrich: 53/32
March 31st, 2011 at 3:40 pm
congrats to huck on his poll numbers. I am axious for all candidates to announce and get on the same playing field nation wide.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:46 pm
Ohio white voters:
Palin favorables: 33/57
Romney 38/40
Gingrich 27/52
Mississippi white voters:
Palin favorables: 60/32
Gingrich 53/32
Romney 44/37
Explain to me how whites view in these two states are totally opposite of each other.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:03 pm
Thunder,
I’m sorry you feel that way. I know Huckabee was Pres. of the Baptist Convention when they went to Utah, and because of that you feel Huckabee doesn’t like Mormons. Remeber, as President of that Convention, he had a role to play as far as what Baptists in general thought of the Mormon religion. I personally have heard him say many, many times that he has nothing against other religions and that includes the Mormons. He had something against Romney, not his religion.
He has apologized for the question to the press, and BTW, many Mormons said that what Huckabee asked in his question is true, so why would you hide from the truth of your own religion? If you are a Christian, God says we must forgive. Can you or do you live by your own rules, not God’s?
March 31st, 2011 at 4:11 pm
58.zeek Says:
March 31st, 2011 at 3:40 pm
“congrats to huck on his poll numbers. I am axious for all candidates to announce and get on the same playing field nation wide.”
===
Thanks, Zeke.
Me, too
Around August to Labor Day.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:32 pm
Explain to me how whites view in these two states are totally opposite of each other.
I’m not sure what you’re getting at.
Romney’s tepid approval in Ohio is not much different than his tepid approval in Mississippi.
Palin and Gingrich have always run stronger in crimson red states.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:53 pm
Here’s the last PPP polling in comparison to Strategic Polling’s number
24.49% •Mike Huckabee 19% [19%] (17%)
13.78% •Mitt Romney 18% [15%] (14%)
21.94% •Newt Gingrich 16% [18%] (19%)
16.33% •Sarah Palin 15% [21%] (20%)
NA •Ron Paul 7% [6%]
3.57% •Tim Pawlenty 5% [3%] (6%)
NA •Mitch Daniels 4% [5%] (3%)
1.52% •Haley Barbour 2%
•Someone else/Undecided 13% [11%] (18%)
March 31st, 2011 at 8:53 pm
“Explain to me how whites view in these two states are totally opposite of each other.”
The white vote in OH is a lot more diverse (containing more demographics that are skeptical or hostile of republican views). Examples…
-Union households (smaller than historically but far larger than MS)
-certain white ethnic groups
-well educated and government workers (again more in OH)
-religious adherence and participation rates (lower in OH)
-more urban
March 31st, 2011 at 10:33 pm
It’s not surprising that Huckabee wins in Ohio, and it’s not surprising that Romney does better in Florida.
I’d rather do better in Florida.
April 1st, 2011 at 8:19 am
I didn’t know Mormon is Satan’s Church. I thought Mormon was the same as the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter Day Saints. I guess you learn something new everyday.
April 1st, 2011 at 12:07 pm
Dave,
Huck beats Romney in the latest Florida 2012 primary polling as well.
Romney has dropped in Florida in the last FOUR PPP’s from 52 to 31 to 28 to 21!!!
Next stop, the teens….
April 1st, 2011 at 7:15 pm
Maybe Romney will drop out before Super Tuesday if Huckabee beats him by a combined 30+ points in IA/SC/FL.
Forget about Super Tuesday as no amount of money can unbury that.
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