PPP (D) Florida 2012 Presidential Survey
- Barack Obama 46% (46%)
- Mitt Romney 44% (44%)
- Barack Obama 48%
- Jeb Bush 45%
- Barack Obama 48%
- Rudy Giuliani 42%
- Barack Obama 50% (47%)
- Newt Gingrich 42% (42%)
- Barack Obama 50% (49%)
- Mike Huckabee 43% (44%)
- Barack Obama 52% (52%)
- Sarah Palin 39% (38%)
Among Independents
- Barack Obama 41% (52%)
- Mitt Romney 39% (28%)
- Barack Obama 47%
- Jeb Bush 42%
- Barack Obama 50%
- Rudy Giuliani 39%
- Barack Obama 52% (56%)
- Newt Gingrich 38% (22%)
- Barack Obama 50% (60%)
- Mike Huckabee 35% (24%)
- Barack Obama 52% (67%)
- Sarah Palin 34% (26%)
Among Moderates
- Barack Obama 67% (62%)
- Mitt Romney 21% (28%)
- Barack Obama 68%
- Jeb Bush 21%
- Barack Obama 71%
- Rudy Giuliani 18%
- Barack Obama 75% (69%)
- Newt Gingrich 19% (26%)
- Barack Obama 74% (69%)
- Mike Huckabee 16% (25%)
- Barack Obama 74% (70%)
- Sarah Palin 16% (19%)
Among Men
- Jeb Bush 49%
- Barack Obama 44%
- Mitt Romney 47% (45%)
- Barack Obama 42% (46%)
- Newt Gingrich 48% (45%)
- Barack Obama 46% (49%)
- Mike Huckabee 47% (46%)
- Barack Obama 46% (51%)
- Rudy Giuliani 46%
- Barack Obama 46%
- Barack Obama 48% (52%)
- Sarah Palin 43% (40%)
Among Women
- Barack Obama 49% (46%)
- Mitt Romney 41% (42%)
- Barack Obama 52%
- Jeb Bush 41%
- Barack Obama 50%
- Rudy Giuliani 38%
- Barack Obama 53% (47%)
- Mike Huckabee 39% (41%)
- Barack Obama 55% (45%)
- Newt Gingrich 37% (40%)
- Barack Obama 56% (52%)
- Sarah Palin 35% (36%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Mike Huckabee 40% (41%) / 39% (43%) {+1%}
- Mitt Romney 39% (43%) / 39% (38%) {0%}
- Jeb Bush 44% / 44% {0%}
- Rudy Giuliani 37% / 46% {-9%}
- Newt Gingrich 32% (36%) / 48% (47%) {-16%}
- Sarah Palin 32% (36%) / 60% (57%) {-28%}
Among Republicans
- Jeb Bush 70% / 24% {+46%}
- Mike Huckabee 63% (67%) / 25% (22%) {+38%}
- Mitt Romney 59% (58%) / 26% (26%) {+33%}
- Newt Gingrich 54% (61%) / 28% (24%) {+26%}
- Sarah Palin 59% (62%) / 33% (34%) {+26%}
- Rudy Giuliani 50% / 34% {+16%}
Among Democrats
- Rudy Giuliani 26% / 53% {-27%}
- Mike Huckabee 20% (24%) / 48% (54%) {-28%}
- Mitt Romney 19% (31%) / 53% (43%) {-34%}
- Jeb Bush 21% / 66% {-45%}
- Newt Gingrich 13% (16%) / 63% (63%) {-50%}
- Sarah Palin 10% (15%) / 84% (75%) {-74%}
Among Independents
- Mitt Romney 43% (36%) / 32% (51%) {+11%}
- Jeb Bush 41% / 38% {+3%}
- Mike Huckabee 38% (25%) / 45% (62%) {-7%}
- Rudy Giuliani 35% / 53% {-18%}
- Newt Gingrich 31% (24%) / 52% (60%) {-21%}
- Sarah Palin 28% (30%) / 58% (66%) {-30%}
Among Moderates
- Mitt Romney 33% (31%) / 44% (43%) {-11%}
- Rudy Giuliani 30% / 56% {-26%}
- Jeb Bush 30% / 57% {-27%}
- Mike Huckabee 21% (23%) / 53% ( 57%) {-32%}
- Newt Gingrich 16% (19%) / 63% (62%) {-47%}
- Sarah Palin 12% (17%) / 82% (71%) {-70%}
Among Men
- Mitt Romney 42% (44%) / 37% (43%) {+5%}
- Mike Huckabee 41% (42%) / 37% (50%) {+4%}
- Jeb Bush 44% / 45% {-1%}
- Newt Gingrich 37% (39%) / 47% (53%) {-10%}
- Rudy Giuliani 38% / 50% {-12%}
- Sarah Palin 36% (42%) / 56% (54%) {-20%}
Among Women
- Jeb Bush 43% / 43% {0%}
- Mike Huckabee 39% (40%) / 41% (35%) {-2%}
- Mitt Romney 36% (42%) / 40% (32%) {-4%}
- Rudy Giuliani 36% / 42% {-6%}
- Newt Gingrich 28% (32%) / 48% (40%) {-20%}
- Sarah Palin 28% (31%) / 63% (60%) {-35%}
Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
- Approve 48% (45%)
- Disapprove 47% (49%)
Survey of 500 registered Florida voters was conducted March 24-27, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 41% (42%) Democrat; 37% (40%) Republican; 22% (18%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% Moderate; 26% Somewhat conservative; 21% Very conservative; 16% Somewhat liberal; 7% Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted December 17-20, 2010 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:39 pm
Congrats (I guess goes to) Obama. He even beats JEB!
If this is any kind of trend..
..we’re dead in the Florida swamp.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Good news for Tex, Franklin, and Telly though..
•Barack Obama 52% (52%)
•Sarah Palin 39% (38%)
..only Palin gains on Obama.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Wow, Romney thrashes Huckabee in every category!
It’s going to be fun to watch Huckabee’s numbers fall off a cliff in the next few months. HUCKABOOM!!
Yep, Romney’s going to be the nominee. He’s going to come out strong in Iowa, win New Hampshire, win Michigan, win Nevada, win South Carolina, and easily win Florida.
After that, it’s all over folks!
March 31st, 2011 at 3:46 pm
I guess the story could be summed up as such: When it comes right down to it, Huckabee and his religious hate just isn’t very attractive to people in the long run.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:47 pm
Save us Willard Mitt Romney . . . you’re our only hope!!
GOP voters will be more motivated that the Dems. I like where Mitt is.
Beats even Jeb in Florida (where Jeb was HUGELY popular)
Romney -2 (stable)
Huck -7 (DOWN TWO) . . . taking emphasis lessons from C4Huck.
Newt -8 (down three)
Sarah -13 (up one)
Oh yeah, and Mitt keeps Obama by far the lowest at 46% (that trend I mentioned in a previous thread) . . . and that’s despite Obama’s 48% approval rating IN THE SAME POLL. Proves that some people that approve of Obama’s job performance chose Mitt!! THAT’S HUGE FOLKS!!
March 31st, 2011 at 3:49 pm
Obama beats EVERYONE among independents, and slaughters us all among moderates.
And even WOMEN by 8-21 points across the board..
But yeah for the FLORIDA MEN:
Among Men
•Jeb 49%
•Barack 44%
•Mitt 47%
•Barack 42%
•Newt 48%
•Barack 46%
•Mike 47%
•Barack 46%
March 31st, 2011 at 3:50 pm
We’ll win FL when all said and done; it’s just the quality of the GOP nominee that matters. You want to know why: Portuguese bond yield is now hitting near 9%. Portugal basically doesn’t want to do any real cuts, much like our Democrats. If we don’t do serious fiscal cuts in 2013, we’ll go under. That simple.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:51 pm
Craig is praising Obama, rather than crediting Romney.
See, what did I tell you? Huck and his fans would rather support Obama over Mitt.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:52 pm
CF,
Gets all the way to post #4 before he plays the religion card again?
An improvement?
March 31st, 2011 at 3:53 pm
I wonder if Jimmer Fredette and the BYU vs Florida game helped give a bump to Romney in the polls. When people see such a nice group of young Mormon basketball players, it probably helps the Mormon image a bit.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:54 pm
CF,
I and everyone I know will vote for Mitt over Obama if it came to those two.
Can you say the same about you voting for Huck over Obama in the general?
Try to be honest.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:55 pm
Craig,
Hey, are you just going use the “Mormon Card” card on me, or are you saying that Mormon bigotry isn’t still a problem in this country? If it’s the latter, please backup your statement with facts.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:55 pm
Craig,
When does the next Iowa poll come out?
It’s truly the only poll that matters.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:58 pm
CF,
Why do you play the Mormon card on EVERY thread. Shouldn’t you go to a religious site for that.
It’s kinda weird behaviour on a political site to say the least.
Even Dr. Jeff Fuller asked you nicely to knock it off.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:58 pm
Craig – I don’t believe you. I think the resentment toward Romney is too deep for you to vote for him…ever.
If that’s true, please list for me the things that you like about Mitt Romney and why they are superior to Obama’s traits.
March 31st, 2011 at 3:59 pm
FACT: The ethics commission fined Huckabee $1,000 for failing to report that he paid himself $14,000 from his 1992 U.S. Senate campaign and $43,000 from his 1994 lieutenant governor’s campaign. (Source: POLITICO, Huckabee rivals unearth ethics complaints Kenneth P. Vogel Nov 21, 2007)
FACT: Huckabee accepted more than 300 gifts worth at least $130,000, ranging from $3,700 cowboy boots to a $600 chainsaw. (Source: POLITICO, Huckabee rivals unearth ethics complaints Kenneth P. Vogel Nov 21, 2007)
FACT: Mike Huckabee raised more taxes in 10 years in office than Bill Clinton did in his 12 years. (Source: The Leader, 08/30/2006)
FACT: Mike Huckabee’s substantial tax hikes far surpassed his modest tax cuts, with the average tax burden increasing by a whopping 47% over his tenure. (Source: Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 10/09/07)
FACT: Mike Huckabee opposed a congressional measure to ban internet taxes in 2003. (Source: Arkansas News Bureau, 11/21/03)
FACT: Mike Huckabee in 2004, he allowed a 17% sales tax increase to become law. (Source: The Gurdon Times, 03/02/04)
FACT: Mike Huckabee stole over $70,000 worth of furniture from the Arkansas governors mansion. (Source: Arkansas Times Counting the Furniture, 12/14/06 Leslie Newell Peacock)
FACT: Mike Huckabee set up a nonprofit entity so he could give paid “inspirational” speeches without having to disclose the donors. (SOURCE: Bloomberg Dec 12, 2007 Margaret Carlson)
FACT: During the 2001 regular session of the Arkansas Legislature, Mike Huckabee supported giving driver’s licenses to illegal aliens. (Source Arkansas Journal, Mike Huckabee Supported Bill to Give Driver’s Licenses to Illegal Aliens, Henry Rearden, 11/22/2007)
FACT: Mike Huckabee supported in-state higher education benefits for children of illegal immigrants. (Laura Kellams, “Senators research U.S. law on aliens,” Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 1/27/05)
FACT: Mike Huckabee opposed a federal raid of 119 illegal immigrants at an Arkansas Tyson poultry plant, 107 of whom left the country either voluntarily or through deportation. (Melissa Nelson, “Huckabee Risks Political Fortunes To Denounce Immigration Raid,” Associated Press, 8/5/05)
FACT: Mike Huckabee opposed a bill requiring proof of citizenship to vote in his own state. (Source CNS NEWS, Some GOP Concerned about Huckabee’s Immigration Views, Fred Lucas, 12/04/2007)
FACT: Mike Huckabee says he has degree in theology, further investigation discovers he does not. (Source: The Carpetbagger Report, Mike Huckabee has a theology degree — or does he?, 12/14/2007)
March 31st, 2011 at 3:59 pm
..and Jeff supports Romney as hard as anyone.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:00 pm
“Dr” Jeff is more than welcome to stand by while Romney’s faith is attacked. I won’t. There’s the difference.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:00 pm
I love how these polls fluctuate:
Romney drops 5 in favorables, Huckabee gains 2.
Romney stays the same against Obmaa, Huckabee drops 2.
Romney down 2 with Indys, Huckabee down 15.
Romney loses 14 with women, Huckabee only 7.
Romney gains 4 with men, Huckabee gains 12.
Romney down 8 in general elction vs. Obama, Huckabee down 14
Romney up 5 in GE with men, Huckabee up 1.
Each side has something to yell about.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Romney supporter here . . .
I would advise CF to lay off. It’s unbecoming and unproductive to get in the religious gutter on this topic. I strongly dislike Huckabee too, but you’re looking a little silly here.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:02 pm
This is with 2008 metrics, Obama won’t win Florida in 12 unless HuckaBachlin is the nominee.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:02 pm
^Romney down 8 in general election (women) vs. Obama, Huckabee down 14
March 31st, 2011 at 4:03 pm
Oh alright, I’ll lay off. I guess I just get a little bit giddy when Romney does so well in the polls (and I like to see Craig squirm).
March 31st, 2011 at 4:04 pm
CF,
I see you dodged the question and posted the lies from liberal sources as is your right. But we are a grassroots conservative site here at Race41012 so I doubt folks will read links from libs. Although you have now posted the same nonsense 154 times or so.
So answer the question, please:
Can you vote for Huck over Obama in the general?
Or will you do what Obama wants?
March 31st, 2011 at 4:09 pm
CF,
“I wonder if Jimmer Fredette and the BYU vs Florida game helped give a bump to Romney in the polls. When people see such a nice group of young Mormon basketball players, it probably helps the Mormon image a bit.”
Are you serious?
Do you think everything in life is about Mormonism and politics? Do you seriously think Floridians were watching on TV and thinking, “My, that Fredette boy is such a clean cut lad. I think I’ll vote for Romney!”
March 31st, 2011 at 4:11 pm
With regard to Florida, it will be interesting to see if Sen. Rubio endorses a candidate. If he really wants to be VP, he might choose to stay neutral.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:11 pm
Honestly, I don’t think I would vote for either one. I would probably stay home. In my opinion, Huckabee is a Democrat. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, it probably is a duck.
A Huckabee or Obama Presidency would probably look very similar. With mounting deficits, my gut tells me their solution in 2012 is to mimic their history: raise taxes.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:14 pm
Matt -
I think that the image does help. Every news story on the team was laced with their religion during their run to the Sweet 16. A lot of Floridians were probably paying attention.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:14 pm
“In my opinion, Huckabee is a Democrat.”
In my opinion, I think you are a religious bigot. Why else would you pigeonhole a person’s support or lack thereof to just religion? You are doing Romney a disservice by doing so.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:17 pm
Stephen – Ouch! I’ll just ignore that one.
Romney’s getting closer to an official announcement!
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/31/romney-moves-closer-to-official-announcement/
March 31st, 2011 at 4:21 pm
Kudos to Mitt polling higher than Jeb in FL, I’m truly impressed.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:25 pm
30, I don’t think you get it. My point, your opinion doesn’t really matter much.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:25 pm
Yeesh, this issue with Florida having their primary on January 31st is getting messy. RNC Chariman Reince Priebus has stated that Florida could be penalized by losing up to 50 percent of their delegates, among other penalties, if Florida circumvents the nominating calendar.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:26 pm
I believe the Florida people are voting at what the candidates did in the last election, for example, Romney and Guiliani. They didn’t know that Hannity completely shut Huckabee down in Florida. But it really didn’t matter because Huckabee was getting GA and AL for his super Super Tuesday states.
When we have the Florida primary, all of these people will know about Romneycare and Huckabee will campaign (the more people see him, the more they like him), so the primary will change a lot.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:38 pm
Florida may very well supplant S.C. as the king maker Primary (although I am skeptical on this). Mitt and his inner circle are definitely hoping for this. Mitt is running a modified Rudy strategy – skip IA, campaign hard in NH, skip S.C. and then get swept into victory in FL (it could very well work this time, Rudy’s firewall strategy was not as flawed as some make it out to be). In any event, Governor Rick Scott’s endorsement is going to be paramount (as Crist’s was in 2008). Anyone know who Governor Scott favors in the race or who he might be likely to back?
March 31st, 2011 at 4:40 pm
VFT,
Bingo!
March 31st, 2011 at 4:42 pm
Governor Rick Scott isn’t polling so well right now. I have no idea who he would endorse, but considering his current popularity, I don’t know if that would really help anyone.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:43 pm
JA,
I don’t know but it depends on how Scott’s approvals are doing? But I do think Romney can count on Crist THIS time. But I think that could hurt.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:44 pm
Rick Scott probably won’t back Romney in the primary as Romney didn’t back him until he had won the nomination. You never know though. They are both businessmen.
March 31st, 2011 at 4:46 pm
Momentum from a South Carolina big victory is huge in Florida if it’s primary follows next in line.
H U G E !!!
March 31st, 2011 at 4:48 pm
I would be surprised if florida voters didn’t already know about Romneycare but it would be an interesting poll.
In the same breath, I wonder how many Floridians know about Huckabees skeletons? My bet is more know about Romney and Masscare then Huck and… (take your pick).
March 31st, 2011 at 5:00 pm
Okay, now I know that PPP polls are truely bogus. There is absolutely no way that Jeb could be behind Obama in Florida. He is too well like and appreciate. These numbers are cooked. Jeb has to be up at least 10 points in Florida.
March 31st, 2011 at 5:02 pm
It’s amazing the discrepancy between men and women in this poll (and others). I bet if you took women out of the equation, Obama would be losing in a landslide across the country. I’m not saying Women’s Suffrage was a mistake…but sheesh…we sure do think differently.
March 31st, 2011 at 5:05 pm
I forgot to mention that lot’s of people do not believe Huckabee is running for President. That could explain a lot in these numbers. When he announces, his numbers should go up a lot since people don’t think he’s running….everybody already knows Romney is running.
March 31st, 2011 at 5:07 pm
Just recently Gov. Scott was polled in Florida and he didn’t poll very well. Gov. Scott said he wasn’t endorsing anybody, but he might change his mind, but I don’t think he will have near the same impact as Crist.
March 31st, 2011 at 5:10 pm
CF,
Your theory about the Mormon basketball players would help Romnney is ridiculous and stupid. When I saw Utah in the sweet sixteen, it never crossed my mind….well they are Mormons. Does the Mormon religion help a boy play better basketball???
March 31st, 2011 at 5:15 pm
I think any time the LDS Church is represented in a positive way on the national stage, it helps to dispel myths for those people that may have misconceptions about it.
I don’t know what is so “stupid and ridiculous” about that.
March 31st, 2011 at 5:23 pm
Vote for Truth, in fact, the Mormon religion does help boys play better basketball. In Utah and Idaho, the young men in the church regularly play on “ward” (a ward is a congregation) teams. It is in all honesty the most aggressive basketball you will ever see. (Note, I said aggressive, which doesn’t necessarily translate to good playing.) However, none of the boys on those teams will ever play college ball since the boys who play on the high school teams generally aren’t allowed on the church teams.
Having set that record straight, I don’t think that BYU basketball has any real bearing on whether or not Mitt Romney will win Florida. Further, while it it would be wrong to say religion has nothing to do with Romney’s political success, I certainly don’t think it will be the determining factor. If Romney is unable to define himself politically outside of being a Mormon, he shouldn’t win. I don’t think Romney suffered all that much from being a Mormon last time and I don’t think he will this time.
March 31st, 2011 at 5:25 pm
hee hee CF have you watched Part 4 of Kid History on You Tube? You should. FffffaaaaaaccccT!
March 31st, 2011 at 5:26 pm
48 The Mormon boys look like pansies compared to the Mormon girls playing basketball. Honey.
March 31st, 2011 at 5:28 pm
I hope Giuliani tries again.
March 31st, 2011 at 5:33 pm
Liz – Wow, I’ll never read my Huckabee list in the same way ever again!
March 31st, 2011 at 5:34 pm
CF,
That’s fair. I just hope that you aren’t boosting Mitt’s candidacy primarily because you want to boost the image of the LDS Church. I’m not accusing you of it – but I hope that isn’t your motivation for being gaga over Mitt.
Frankly, there are more important issues that face the nation than the image of any single religion.
March 31st, 2011 at 5:43 pm
42
Thunder,
Yeah, this is truly surprising/impressive if true because, although the Dems here in FL hate Jeb, nearly everyone respects the job he did as gov. If these numbers hold up/are verified by other polls, Mitt is sitting pretty (as much as I hate to admit it).
March 31st, 2011 at 5:47 pm
Adam -
I don’t think a Mitt Romney Presidency would really boost the image of the LDS Church. It would probably result in just as many negatives as positives. In fact, it scares me to death the kind of attention the Church would get because of a Mormon President.
I like Mitt because he’s the smartest guy in the room and because he has “walked the walk”. And, above all, he’s done it honestly. He has a great family and zero personal baggage, which I think America really needs right now. That he shares my Faith is just a minor bonus.
I am not fond of many other Mormon Political leaders, such as Jon Huntsman, Orrin Hatch, and certainly not Harry Reid.
March 31st, 2011 at 5:58 pm
Matt #25 -
I will not cast another Presidential ballot for at least 16 more years until Jimmer is on the ballot.
March 31st, 2011 at 6:00 pm
“I like Mitt because he’s the smartest guy in the room”
Not if it’s a room I’m in…..
March 31st, 2011 at 6:01 pm
I guess moving to Florida didn’t help Huckabee make gains in the state. If Huckabee runs and loses Florida, is it fair to say he lost his home state?
March 31st, 2011 at 6:01 pm
Ray,
I’m holding you to that.
March 31st, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Matt -
Well, I live in a state where my vote doesn’t matter anyways so I might just hold myself to that.
And, btw, we all know you’re the smartest man around these parts so any time we talk about “smartest” and “in a room” we just accept the fact that no one measures up to you.
March 31st, 2011 at 6:09 pm
Dr. Jeff #20 -
Thank you for doing what I was going to do had you not.
March 31st, 2011 at 6:13 pm
# afk Says:
March 31st, 2011 at 6:01 pm
I guess moving to Florida didn’t help Huckabee make gains in the state. If Huckabee runs and loses Florida, is it fair to say he lost his home state?
=========================================================================
What if Huckabee fools everyone and runs for the Senate in Florida….. Interesting…..
March 31st, 2011 at 6:20 pm
According to a release from Romney’s Free & Strong America PAC, they raised $1.9m in Q1 and distributed $400K to candidates and current office holders. Nice take in for Romney.
Ron Paul raised just over $1m for his PAC and another nearly $2m for his Campaign for Liberty, which can not distribute funds.
March 31st, 2011 at 6:40 pm
#63:
What can he do with the money for “Campaign for Liberty”? Paul’s district is safely his. What’s the money for?
March 31st, 2011 at 7:03 pm
Maybe Huckabee should move to New York. He would win that state.
March 31st, 2011 at 7:05 pm
Ray,
…except when I’m not actually in a room……
Then we measure it in hectares.
March 31st, 2011 at 7:24 pm
Jonathan # 64-
I have no idea; all I know is what he can’t do with it. He could probably fund the “Free State” project where the Libertarians were all going to move to and take over New Hampshire.
Matt #66 -
And its square kilometers whenever you’re in transit, correct?
March 31st, 2011 at 7:28 pm
Ray,
…..if I’m traveling north and south. If I’m traveling predominately east-west, we use the Imperial System.
March 31st, 2011 at 8:30 pm
Jeff (20) and Ray (61): Thank you both.
March 31st, 2011 at 8:43 pm
TPAW!!!!
Tim Pawlenty is making a list of potential running mates.
Asked for his top five vice presidential picks, Pawlenty didn’t hesitate in naming Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval and New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez.
March 31st, 2011 at 9:47 pm
Predictions for Fla, Miss, NC primary numbers.
Fla. Romney 25, Huckabee 22, Gingrich 17, Palin 13 (without Rudy)
Miss. Huckabee 34, Gingrich 20, Palin 15, Romney 10 (without Haley)
Barbour 31, Huckabee 22, Gingrich 16, Palin 9, Romney 6,
NC Huckabee 25, Gingrich 19, Romney 17, Palin 14
March 31st, 2011 at 9:52 pm
Mississippi will probably be more like this:
Huckabee 41, Gingrich 18, Palin 14, Romney 7
With Barbour:
Barbour 35, Huckabee 18, Gingrich 13, Palin 9, Romney 5
March 31st, 2011 at 10:27 pm
According to this poll, 41% of voters in Florida are Democrats and 37% are Republicans, yet Republicans hold massive majorities in both houses of the state legislature and in the Congressional delegation
So, how can a solid Republican state have more Democrats than Republicans in it?
April 1st, 2011 at 12:09 am
Dave,
The Indies vote more Republican, and/or Democrats are more likely to cross party lines.
Gallup or Pew or someone like that does a periodic party ID poll. I’m working from memory here, but I think only about a dozen states have more self identified Republicans than Democrats. Still lots of ancestral Democrats out there.
April 1st, 2011 at 12:48 am
73: The phenomenon is not unusual in the south or culturally southern states. In Arizona when I was growing up, the state was heavily Democratic in terms of registration, but the rural Dems (they were called Pinto Democrats) voted Republican in national and statewide elections, while electing Pintos to the state legislature and county offices.
April 1st, 2011 at 5:02 am
[...] link [...]
April 1st, 2011 at 10:26 am
“According to this poll, 41% of voters in Florida are Democrats and 37% are Republicans, yet Republicans hold massive majorities in both houses of the state legislature and in the Congressional delegation
So, how can a solid Republican state have more Democrats than Republicans in it?”
The answer is pretty simple. The 2000 legislative redistricting effort by the Republicans was VERY effective in creating a disproportionate number of R- leaning districts. So even though the partisan balance of the state is relatively even, the Dems are disproportionately crammed into extremely strong districts while the republicans are scattered around (without being too scattered, See Pennsylvania’s 2000 remap for what NOT to do).
April 1st, 2011 at 11:24 am
Matt, Bob, pea-jay,
There is a lot of truth in each of your answers, and I realize that the state isn’t heavily Republican in terms of registration, but my question was somewhat disingenuous in that it presumed a partisan distortion on the part of PPP.
My guess is that party registration currently favors the GOP by at least a small margin. I’ll try and look that up.
Thanks.
April 1st, 2011 at 11:57 am
PPP is not the devil, Dave.