PPP (D) 2012 Michigan GOP Primary Survey
- Mitt Romney 26% {22%} [30%] (37%)
- Mike Huckabee 20% {22%} [14%] (12%)
- Newt Gingrich 16% {15%} [16%] (16%)
- Sarah Palin 14% {18%} [17%] (24%)
- Ron Paul 7% {10%} [8%] (6%)
- Mitch Daniels 4% {2%}
- Tim Pawlenty 3% {3%}
- Someone else/Undecided 10% {7%}
Among Men
- Mitt Romney 27% {22%} [29%] (31%)
- Newt Gingrich 19% {18%} [17%] (24%)
- Mike Huckabee 19% {16%} [16%] (8%)
- Sarah Palin 13% {18%} [17%] (26%)
- Ron Paul 8% {11%} [9%] (9%)
- Mitch Daniels 5% {3%}
- Tim Pawlenty 2% {3%}
- Someone else/Undecided 8% {8%}
Among Women
- Mitt Romney 24% {22%} [30%] (45%)
- Mike Huckabee 22% {27%} [13%] (17%)
- Newt Gingrich 14% {12%} [15%] (7%)
- Sarah Palin 14% {17%} [17%] (22%)
- Ron Paul 6% {8%} [7%] (3%)
- Tim Pawlenty 4% {3%}
- Mitch Daniels 3% {2%}
- Someone else/Undecided 13% {11%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Mitt Romney 66% {66%} / 20% {18%} {+46%}
- Mike Huckabee 63% {63%} / 20% {20%} {+43%}
- Sarah Palin 64% {64%} / 28% {28%} {+36%}
- Newt Gingrich 55% {52%} / 24% {26%} {+31%}
Among Men
- Mitt Romney 67% {71%} / 23% {18%} {+44%}
- Sarah Palin 67% {65%} / 27% {27%} {+40%}
- Mike Huckabee 59% {65%} / 24% {24%} {+35%}
- Newt Gingrich 58% {59%} / 24% {25%} {+34%}
Among Women
- Mike Huckabee 67% {63%} / 17% {14%} {+50%}
- Mitt Romney 65% {63%} / 16% {18%} {+49%}
- Sarah Palin 60% {63%} / 29% {28%} {+31%}
- Newt Gingrich 51% {44%} / 24% {25%} {+27%}
Survey of 360 Republican primary voters was conducted March 18-20, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points. Political ideology: 40% Very conservative; 38% Somewhat conservative; 16% Moderate; 3% Somewhat liberal; 2% Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted December 3-6, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 17-19, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 25-27, 2010 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:18 pm
These polls are rediculous. How does Huckabee gain 7 points in a month when there is no campaign? Are there that many people in Michigan reading his book? As far as I am concerned the only poll that counts is the 2008 primary results. Wake me when the campaign starts.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:19 pm
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com … field.html
March 29th, 2011 at 7:21 pm
Gingrich is remarkably static (he’s moved only 1 point at all). Romney and Huckabee are bouncing up and down (although Romney is consistantly polling 1st or tied for 1st). Palin’s support seems to be deteriorating down to a 12%-15% base of support, certainly not enough to win.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:23 pm
1.
Do the Republicans in Michigan watch Fox News? Listen to the Radio? Read New York Times Bestsellers?
Huck brilliantly has ALL three areas covered. Reagan did the same thing after he loss.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:27 pm
Nice to see candidates changing direction. Florida next.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:31 pm
Reminds me of 2008. Huck moving up, and taking leads in national polls in December and early January. During the 2nd half of January, Romney moved ahead of Huckabee for 2nd, but the bad news was McCain shot into the 40s when Rudy and Fred dropped out.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:31 pm
Mitt Romney should not be going from 37 to 26 in his home birth state. Not where his dad was also a very popular governor.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:32 pm
BREAKING: Gary Johnson is “In.” Skipping Exploratory stage and will announce run for Presidency in NH in April.
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Politico%3a+Gary+Johnson+to+launch+2012+presidential+bid+next+month+in+NH&articleId=515d21a1-10bb-4f8f-99a1-ffde3873e3cd
March 29th, 2011 at 7:33 pm
How many voters in Michigan remember his father. That was 50+ years ago.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:36 pm
9.
Well, did they also forget that Mitt was born and raised there? too?
March 29th, 2011 at 7:38 pm
Romney wasn’t leading in Michigan at this time during 2007. There was a poll early January 2008 in Michigan with Huckabee up one point. In fact, McCain had a one point lead in the last two polls before the primary, another had Romney up 6. Romney beat McCain by 9 points.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:38 pm
Huntsman hiring in the Granite State: Excerpt from article. The entire link is too long and the part about Huntsman is too far in the article.
“A political action committee that’s expected to eventually become the presidential campaign committee for Ambassador to China and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman is gearing up in New Hampshire with the hiring of two prominent local Republican strategists.
The Granite Status has learned that Paul Collins, a nearly 30-year political campaign organizer and former congressional and U.S. Senate chief of staff, and Brad Blais, a key player in U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass’ 2010 campaign, are joining the Horizon PAC as consultants to organize its political operations in the first-in-the-nation primary state.”
March 29th, 2011 at 7:41 pm
Steven, my friend..
If Huck does this well in all these most recent national polls Kavon has posted, plus Mississippi and Michigan today, I wouldn’t get your hopes up too high that Huck will do worse in the next FLORIDA survey.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:41 pm
Did PPP ever decide which states to poll after those 3 states got 98% of the vote? I hope it was Georgia and Washington. With Palin losing ground everywhere, I expect it to be close between the other Big 4 in Washington, and some interesting numbers from Georgia with Cain and Gingrich, Huckabee’s Evangelical base, and Romney’s Atlanta support.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:44 pm
I don’t expect a huge slide in Florida, just Romney back in the lead by 3 points. The bottom has been reached with Romney. Huckabee isn’t moving much. Some states up, other states down. Palin has been taking the hit the past 2 months in the GOP primary polls.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:46 pm
Romney won’t reach double digits in Mississippi poll, I already acknowledge that ahead of it. 43% favorable with Republicans in Miss. is the lowest so far. I expect Mississippi, Alabama, and Arkansas to be Romney’s worst red state primary numbers just as Huckabee in Utah and Idaho. I’m content today with Miss, Mich, and Gallups numbers.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:50 pm
Romney might not reach 40% in Arkansas. Of course, I don’t expect to see Huckabee with 40% favorables in Utah either.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:52 pm
#14:
Those do sound like good states to poll. Georgia in particular has some potential for non-evangelicals to do well. We saw in 2010 in the Karen Handel v. Nathan Deal primary when Handel almost beat Deal by cranking out votes in the Atlanta Metro area. A divided rural/evangelical voting bloc could give a Romney or another, less religiously inclined candidate a narrow path to winning the Peach State.
March 29th, 2011 at 8:02 pm
Georgia’s 2008 primary results showed McCain, Huckabee, and Romney winning certain parts of the state.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Republican_primary,_2008
McCain wins the counties on the borders of South Mississippi and South Carolina, Huckabee wins the counties through the middle of the state and north borders, Romney wins Atlanta metro.
March 29th, 2011 at 8:25 pm
#19:
Looking at the numbers, Romney will need to do better in Atlanta, Savannah and the other cities of Georgia if he wants to win the state. He barely beat Huckabee in Gwinnet and Forsyth Counties, which have part of Atlanta in them. On the outlying counties of Atlanta, Huckabee beat Romney. These are reasonably well-populated areas and a win by a non-rural/evangelical candidate will require Romney or whoever to di very well in these counties to offset the rest of the state.
March 29th, 2011 at 8:44 pm
They should have included Barbour, Bachmann, Roemer, Cain, and Moore. Leaves the results somewhat suspect . . .
March 29th, 2011 at 8:45 pm
Oops! And Huntsman. How did I remember Moore and forget Huntsman?
March 29th, 2011 at 9:03 pm
It’s certainly not surprising that Huckabee is up in Mississippi or that Mitt’s ahead in Michigan. I’d rather be ahead in Michigan.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:19 pm
T-Paw at 3% in a northern mid west state . . . YIKES!!!
Romney WAY over-performed in MI on election night compared to the polls leading up to it (was supposed to be a squeaker between him and McCain). I think 26% is not too far from where he was polling going into that night.
I’ll be laughing all the way to the nomination win for Romney while C4Huck is still screaming: “But the FAR RIGHT/”Very Conservative” block of voters don’t love Romney as much as they love Huck (or whoever else)” . . . did McCain have that Far Right love? It’s nice to have for sure, but it is not a necessary element to win. You just have to get more votes than the other guys. Romney’s plenty capable of that.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:20 pm
Romney’s “Ground Game” in MI will make it a blow out in the primary, and it will put him over the top against Obama in that state as well!
March 29th, 2011 at 9:31 pm
did McCain have that Far Right love? It’s nice to have for sure, but it is not a necessary element to win.
But, McCain didn’t win. Obama did.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:44 pm
“T-Paw at 3% in a northern mid west state . . . YIKES!!!”
Agreed, I like Tpaw, but his fans like to compare his current status to Huck in 2007 but that’s simply not a fair comparison. Tpaw is better known than Mike was in ‘07; he received a lot of mention as a possible VP for McCain in 2008. This is a dismal showing for Pawlenty in what should be friendly territory.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:54 pm
Mitt bounced back some, but still not exactly dominant in his home state. Respectable showing for Mike.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:55 pm
mac,
If TPaw is still showing 3% in MI in September, I’ll completely agree with you. But I wouldn’t put a fork in any credible candidate until then.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:57 pm
Granny T . . . talking about Primary. WINNING . . . DUH!
C4Huck constantly harps that, though Mitt may be a good “general election candidate” that he doesn’t have a shot at winning the primary because he can’t appease the coservative base. That’s what I’m referring to.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:01 pm
Jeff,
“Romney’s “Ground Game” in MI will make it a blow out in the primary, and it will put him over the top against Obama in that state as well!”
Right, because Obama, the DNC, the SEIU, the AFL-CIO, AFSME, the NEA, the NAACP, and the UAW have no ground game……. In fact, unlike 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988….. they will probably be completely indifferent to who wins in 2012, especially if the Republican is an LBO artist.
Seriously, though, Obama ’08 and all his allies had a ground game that far surpassed anything that came before it. To suggest that a Republican will win MI for the first time since 1988 on the basis of a superior ground game is very tenuous, and that’s being generous.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:02 pm
Jeff,
Romney’s “ground game” couldn’t beat McCain. It sure as hell won’t make the difference against Obama.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:16 pm
Matt,
Of course, the Epic MRA poll showed Mitt beating Obama in Michigan, and Snider, practically a Romney Clone, won the governorship recently in a landslide.
Don’t knock the ground game.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:18 pm
MWS,
No, it’s not fork time yet for Pawlenty, but March 2011 for Tpaw is not the same as March 2007 was for Huck as has been suggested by some here. Because of the VP exposure he received, I’d say that Tpaw’s current polling should be compared to Huck’s post Ames Straw Poll numbers… lets say Aug/Sept 2007.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:22 pm
Dave,
“and Snider, practically a Romney Clone, won the governorship recently in a landslide.”
Was he facing someone of the political caliber of Obama?
March 29th, 2011 at 10:24 pm
mac,
I concede the point that it’s not the same, but it still shows how quickly things can change. It’s probably fairer to compare TPaw March ’07 with Romney Jan. ’07. Both were getting insider buzz, but it was still before the season had really kicked off.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:25 pm
mac,
But it’s not fair to compare TPaw to post-Ames Huck either. At that point, the field was set (except for Fred) and most Primary voters were at least kind of paying attention, and Huck had a catalyst. TPaw hasn’t had a chance at a catalyst yet. There has been no Ames, and no debate yet.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:28 pm
So I’d say a fair comparison for Tpaw’s showing in this poll would be Mike’s September ’07 numbers in TN (where Fred was the big dawg in 2007). Where’s Aron Goldman when you need him to deliver data out of thin air?
March 29th, 2011 at 10:32 pm
mac,
Again, the big difference is that by Sep. 07 more voters were engaged, had seen debates, and there had been a significant beauty contest (Ames).
You can’t fairly compare anyone right now to Sep. 07, unless it’s someone who had high name ID then and now (such as Rudy).
March 29th, 2011 at 10:33 pm
36
“It’s probably fairer to compare TPaw March ’07 with Romney Jan. ’07. Both were getting insider buzz, but it was still before the season had really kicked off.”
agreed
March 29th, 2011 at 11:39 pm
#31…..MWS…..I see you are in a bad mood again.
Since you are admittedly ignorant about most things Romney, I will help you out.
Romney was not an LBO artist. I beleive you
March 29th, 2011 at 11:42 pm
#31…..MWS…..I see you are in a bad mood again.
Since you are admittedly ignorant about most things Romney, I will help you out.
Romney was not an LBO artist. I believe you said you did/do work in the securities industry, so I assume you know the meaning of what you say.
Romney pioneered the field of merging venture capital with management consulting to WORK WITH THE CURRENT OWNERS/MANAGEMENT to turn around/build up companies by providing necessary capital (then venture capital part) with continuous management consulting support to facilitate implementing best practices over the long term and thereby create value for all company stakeholders.
That business model did so well that is was copied by many afterwards…
March 30th, 2011 at 5:13 pm
I think Michigan certainly will be in play if Romney is at the top of the ticket. Other factors will come into play such as the economy, and if the voters are still ticked at Snyder then they may punish the GOP presidential nominee for it. The nominee will need to clean Obama’s clock with Independents and get a healthy portion of Democrats.
September 13th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
RON PAUL 2012!!! Legalize the Constitution!
December 14th, 2011 at 12:27 am
Please people, if you love this country, vote for Ron Paul.