It’s finally here, that is, the beginning of the 2012 presidential race.
President Obama is the overwhelming favorite to be his party’s nominee again, although the volatility of the domestic economy and high risks of his foreign policy keep alive the possibility that a dissatisfied and prominent Democrat might challenge him several months hence, but that remains only a possibility.
Most of the action in the 2012 presidential race will, of course, take place in the contest for the Republican nomination. A substantial discussion about this race has already taken place in the media, but that’s all it has been, a limited conversation among a tiny number of political reporters, pundits, political consultants, pollsters and bloggers. A larger number, but still relatively small group, of party activists have also been busy in the preview stage of the race, and many have already taken sides — and jobs — with potential candidates in various states of preparations for their official announcements.
I want to stress that it is almost entirely VERY speculative discussion until we hear definitively from actual voters in primaries, caucuses, and some early straw votes. It has already been pointed out that, at this point of the 2008 campaign, Rudy Giuliani was the frontrunner, McCain trailed, and Fred Thompson had notable poll numbers. Mike Huckabee was even not being mentioned.
As it turned out, Giuliani and Thompson proved to be dreadful candidates, and went nowhere quickly. (Thompson, the seasoned actor, got in late, but kept looking at his shoes instead of his audiences during his speeches.) Huckabee was the surprise winner of the Iowa caucus, Romney did well in New Hampshire, but it was McCain going up and down until he finally secured the nomination.
Some of the main characters from 2008 are back, most notably Mitt Romney, the early 2012 frontrunner, and possibly Huckabee (who scores very well in most early polls).
Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, seems likely to run, and also has high name recognition and good poll numbers, although he has not run for president before. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is almost sure to run, and is winning unexpected attention in this early stage. Current Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels has seemed tentative about running, although he has done well in early forays, and has a broad base of support among fellow GOP leaders, Current Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour has been a formidable figure at both the national and state level, and is gathering some top consultants, but his early campaign statements have included a number of blunders. Mike Huckabee has hemmed and hawed, and now indicates that if he gets in, it will be much later this year. With a lucrative national TV show, and limited possibilities outside his base, Huckabee may be a no-show. Current Ambassador to China and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman has indicated he might enter the contest, although he has not run for national office before, and in recent days (as it becomes likelier that 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin may not run), Tea Party Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann has been traveling across the county to try to stir up interest in her running for president. There will be at least 3-5 other major GOP figures who will likely announce their candidacies.
I would like to suggest that there is no true GOP frontrunner yet, and that the race at this point is truly open. This, I repeat, is because we really have no credible idea how GOP voters feel about these candidates, and we have little evidence yet, except in the case of Romney and Huckabee, of how these figures would be as presidential candidates.
Remember, Giuliani looked very strong early in the 2008 race, and was undeniably a formidable politician, but it turned out he was a lousy candidate for president. Thompson was a famous movie star, but it turned out he could not give a good political speech. Romney looked like a winner, but could not connect sufficiently with GOP voters across the country.
In 2011, Romney is back, apparently stronger than before, but still facing the challenge of achieving more direct appeal to voters. Gingrich is a unique figure in U.S. politics, has made a remarkable political comeback, and clearly dominates the debate, but if he does not stop responding to questions about his marriages, and otherwise speaking impetuously, he will have increasing problems. Haley Barbour is a wily politician and excellent governor, but he does not yet sound like a president. Mitch Daniels could be the surprise of the year, but it won’t happen if he does not soon convey a clear impression to voters that he really wants to be president. The so-called “sleeper” of the race, Tim Pawlenty is enjoying the most early success, but most Republican voters still don’t know who he is, and he has not yet been tested on the national campaign trail and in debates with his rivals.
I have consistently maintained that the Republican nominee for president will move into the White House on January 20, 2013. Although much is always made about the possibility of events and a suddenly-improving economy restoring President Obama’s chances to win in 2012, I think the past several months have clearly demonstrated that Mr. Obama is way over his head in the job, and that his healthcare legislation will probably remain a powerful negative for voters. Of course, if the GOP convention somehow nominates someone way off center, that could be self-defeating.
Now there will be announcements, debates, political ads, campaign strategies. The campaign is at last underway. But I’m keeping my predictive political powder dry for a while. Ron Paul will make some noise and get some media attention, but his campaign is going nowhere. If Michelle Bachmann wants to throw away her seat in Congress to run for president, it’s a free country, but she is not going to be the GOP nominee. (Perhaps she knows that, but craves the attention of a national campaign nontheless.)
Get yourselves a ticket for the show, however. It’s going to be a humdinger, a lulu, a rip-hummer, a crackajack, a lollapaloosa, a dilly, a buzzblast and who knows what else.
_______________________________________________________________________
-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site, The Prairie Editor Blog.
March 28th, 2011 at 10:11 am
Barry,
Excellent preview of the “Starting Gate”
Pawlenty/Blackburn 2012!
March 28th, 2011 at 10:28 am
At this early stage, I think the nomination is Romney’s to lose. I see only 3 viable VP selections from him, that help for various reasons.
Romney / Allen West
Romney / Marco Rubio
Romney / Marsha Blackburn
Discuss.
March 28th, 2011 at 10:42 am
I see three candidates to get the nomination: Romney, Pawlenty, Barbour; Two who have a chance at the nomination if they run: Palin and Huckabee. The rest won’t be the nominee.
March 28th, 2011 at 10:46 am
Stand with Scott Walker and join the page!
http://www.facebook.com/pages/I-Stand-with-Scott-Walker/111615612250098
March 28th, 2011 at 10:50 am
Awesome beginning for 2012 with the exception of candidates actually announcing their intentions to run for the office of the President. I believe it is Gov. Huckabee’s to lose. Possible VP’s.
Huckabee/Paul Ryan
Huckabee/Mike Pence
Huckabee/Sarah Palin
Go Huckabee 2012!
March 28th, 2011 at 10:51 am
oh yeah. Huckabee/Walker possiblility.
March 28th, 2011 at 10:55 am
“Huckabee,(who scores very well in most early polls).”
Huckabee scores well, but as I have consistently emphasized, this is soft support – the product of his book tours, television show, and general “good guy” image.
Huckabee has had media exposure and message control to a greater extent than any. other. candidate. including. Obama.
…and yet, for all of that, he has a lead of 1.5%
March 28th, 2011 at 10:58 am
For Huckabee to has to be…
Huckabee/Ryan
Huckabee needs to be seen with a Northern technocrat along side him.
Rubio did seem very serious when he talked about not being a VP possibility in “12″
So in the end it will be…
Pawlenty/Blackburn 2012!
March 28th, 2011 at 11:00 am
This is due to the factionalism of the GOP. Where some are locked into supporting a personality and not a message that galvanizes the Republican Party and has the potential to work the electoral map to draw in more than just the party faithful (Reagan Democrats/Independants/Youth stuck pop culture/ect). And has the back ground of executive experience to produce results to roll back Obama’s destructive agenda.
March 28th, 2011 at 11:02 am
I really like the Huckabee/Ryan ticket idea. That is why I placed it first in my possible picks.
March 28th, 2011 at 11:24 am
Pawlenty rolls out his Finance team today. A huge list of people who served with Bush and McCain in previous campaigns…plus Ann Herbeger who was Rubio main Financal Chief when Rubio was still an underdog.
Where is the Huckster?
When does he start building his team?
Why is he waiting so long?
Huck is not running that’s why.
Iowa is TPAW country in 2012!
Pawlenty/Blackburn 2012!
March 28th, 2011 at 11:59 am
Read article below.
Get ready for TPAW in Iowa!!!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/03/28/candidates_get_religion_in_iowa_109363.html
March 28th, 2011 at 12:00 pm
Bush and McCain people. That’s not exactly change we can believe in.
I also think the author is engaging in wishful thinking about Palin. We already know that he believes in the seniority system rather than quality of one’s work. There is evidence that she is looking at a campaign. Ben Smith reports that they are looking at a campaign structure and it was not denied. She has been in touch with some tea party activists in Iowa and NH.
Palin may be more interested in people who are loyal to her much as Reagan did in 1980. The Bachmann people are talking about June for a atart date. That happens to be when Palin is likely to say yea or nay. She is clearly not going to run a conventionful campaign so the normal rules don’t apply. That is probably hurting her in some opinion polls.
As to Huckabee, there are some things he likes about it and some things he loathes about it. That is something he would have to sort out. He has a little more rope because he is not likely to have consultants hanging from chandeliers either.
The bottom line is that it is essentially a stalemate and will likely remain so until Palin and Huckabee say yea or nay officially. The first real debates are likely to be in August and we will know who is running and who is not.
March 28th, 2011 at 12:00 pm
Huckabee to KMC: “I’m VERY MUCH Considering a run for the White House.”
Mar 26th, 2011 | By Kevin McCullough |
HUCKABEE SAID THIS WEEKEND:
“It’s been very interesting, Kevin, that every poll virtually that comes out shows me at the top of poll — not only in state polls, but in national polls.
And another fascinating thing is that the narrative has been ‘Well, Mike Huckabee is an evangelical candidate, he doesn’t have any appeal beyond that’ or ‘He’s a regional candidate, and he doesn’t have any appeal outside of the South.’
Well, when I win polls in New Jersey, in Pennsylvania, in Maine, and places way out of the South, and when I come in either tight second or tied for first in places where I’m not supposed to even register, you’d think that the punditry might begin to understand that there are people out there who believe that, sort of, a common-sense, constitutional approach to Washington makes more sense.”
Huck goes on to say no one else (thinking of running) brings to the table what he does and gives more examples…
VIDEO HERE:
http://www.baldwinmccullough.com/2011/03/26/huckabee-to-kmc-im-very-much-considering-a-run-for-the-white-house/
March 28th, 2011 at 12:08 pm
Just curious if anyone on this site is a huge Gingrich fan. I have a hard time imagining he inspires much passion in the average voter/blogger type. McCain didn’t either, so I’m not sure that means as much as I want it to mean.
March 28th, 2011 at 12:09 pm
Craig,
There was nobody in the “08″ Iowa race that could take away the Evangelical/Neighbor support away from Huck…Nobody!!
This time Huck has TPAW coming in and organizing, building…kicking ass in Iowa.
When Huck wakes up it will be too late.
Iowa is TPAW country!!
March 28th, 2011 at 12:19 pm
We’ll see about that.
March 28th, 2011 at 12:28 pm
T-Paw should do well in Iowa. I would have thought he would be cutting into Romney the most a few months back, but it’s clear he’s going after Huckabee’s type of voter and hoping that folks in NH won’t notice. I think they’ll notice.
March 28th, 2011 at 12:28 pm
Craig,
When will you start to feel a little nervous about Iowa?
Let’s say it’s July 15th and Huck hasn’t announced his run for President yet, he has made no contact with individuals to run his campaign. Would you then start feeling nervous?
Or do you think Huck can just snap his fingers on August 28th and whammo he is frontrunner in Iowa?
March 28th, 2011 at 12:35 pm
Watchinitall.
They will notice, but they won’t mind.
Arizona had a Tea Party strall poll vote among 1600 voters and TPAW came in 2nd with 16%.
New Hampshire Tea Party has invited TPAW to speak at the April 15th tax freedom day in NH at the Capital.
TPAW, because of his Conservative record on SOC & FISCAL issues will be able to bridge the gap. TPAW’s demeanor of gentle persuasion, which turns off people on this site who need red meat thrown at them everyday, will win over all camps in due time.
Romney is praying that TPAW doesn’t win Iowa…in fact he may have his supporters vote for someone else on Caucus night just to stop TPAW in Iowa so TPAW doesn’t stop Romney in NH.
March 28th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
It’s been my opinion that Huck is entering September 1st and Palin, not at all.
Huck said months ago, “the other candidates should have fun at the first several debates because it’s way too early and folks don’t care for a long dragged out process. But have fun without me.”
Btw, Clinton and Reagan both started their initial campaigns in the Fall. And WON.
March 28th, 2011 at 12:46 pm
Bob Vander Plaats, Huck’s campaign organizational guru in Iowa says Mike should start up around Labor Day, no problem.
And also encouraged him to skip the Ames Straw Poll event.
Been there, done that. Let T-Paw, Cain, Bachmann, Santorum, and Newt have a crack at a TOP TWO Straw Poll finish. The others who actually compete at Ames will be toast, imo.
March 28th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
Sept 1st..hummmmm..ok.
If thats how Huck wants to play it I think that’s good news for TPAW.
Bachmann & Cain will be totally committed to Ames. Santorum is in alot of trouble if Bachmann plays in Ames. TPAW will finish top 3 in Ames, but there has been no focus on Ames from the TPAW camp so far, will see how it plays out.
March 28th, 2011 at 1:03 pm
Top three = No good
March 28th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Watch (15): “Just curious if anyone on this site is a huge Gingrich fan.”
No one has admitted to it. My guess is that his reasonably good performance in polls is strictly name ID.
March 28th, 2011 at 1:08 pm
T-Paw need not worry about Huck in the Iowa caucus, imho..
He needs to worry about Bachmann, Newt and Romney.
Because a 3rd-5th place finish for Tim (a three percenter right now) on caucus night makes going forward to NH irrelevant.
March 28th, 2011 at 1:10 pm
Oh, I forgot Barbour and Daniels. Well, that’s easy to do.
March 28th, 2011 at 1:13 pm
Craig, The reason the pundits say that Huck is not the frontrunner is that he isnt. Sure he might lead on a handful of state and national polls but not by very much. He is nearly tied with Romney nationally. Romney leads in 2 of the 1st 4 early states (NH and NV) while Huck leads in 2 as well (IA and SC). From there the similarities end. Romney raised 8-9 million for his PAC the past few years, Huck barely broke 1 million I think. Romney has staff in place. Huck has his old staff taking new jobs. Romney has met with bundlers and is expecting to raise 50 million by the end of June. Huck has shown time and again (since 2007) an inability to fundraise. Romney writes books and op-eds about policy. Huck goes off the cuff and makes false assertions about Obama. So polls aside (which will change in the months to come), Huck seems totally unprepared to be a serious candidate.
March 28th, 2011 at 1:20 pm
Correction to 28…. Romney raised 11.5 million in 2008 and 2010 combined for his PAC. Huck raised about 2.5 in 2008 and 2010 combined.
So beyond a few polls showing Huck and Romney tied, they are in 2 completely different worlds in terms of organization and preparedness for running. Thats why some see TPaw as closer to a frontrunner than Huck, who continues to dither.
March 28th, 2011 at 1:24 pm
It’s either going to be:
1. Romney / Rubio or
2. Romney / West
NO PALIN!
We need to win 2012! If Romney picks either of these fine men as VP, FL will be a slam dunk. No worries. The only states Romney will need to worry about is picking up OH, and/or MI, CO, and NV to ensure a safe victory.
(He will win back NC, IN, VA, and NH.)
March 28th, 2011 at 1:27 pm
Good for Romney. He outspent Huck 10 to one last time only to run out of money and drop out after Super Tuesday.
And finish 3rd to McCain and Huck. Mitt sounds like Rudy who spent $70,000,000 for one measly delegate.
Bottom line, Huck is the favorite of Fox News viewers, the South, the Midwest, and in an overwhelming number of RED states.
That should just about do it.
http://ilikemikehuckabee2012.blogspot.com/2011/03/polling-shows-mike-huckabee-turning.html
March 28th, 2011 at 1:33 pm
Craig says “Clinton and Reagan started their campaigns in the fall and won”…
Things are a lot different than they were when Clinton and Reagan ran for President. Neither was thought to need 1 billion dollars to beat their opponent. Neither could raise money from the internet. Neither had the bloggosphere, several political cable networks, and a zillion websites that followed their every word. Times were different than they are today.
Sure, Huck might be brilliant for waiting it out, or he might be a complete afterthought for not doing the hard work that others are doing to beat Obama. He might be hurt in the polls by not seeming to be serious enough about a run. Like it or not- fundraising, staffing, public appearances, debates, endorsements, organization, and more each play a roll in helping (or hurting) your poll numbers and your overall chances.
March 28th, 2011 at 1:34 pm
Sure, Huck might be brilliant for waiting it out
Period.
March 28th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
Actually Romney never “ran out of money” in 2008. He actually had a fundraiser in early in 2008 where he still managed to raise 5+ million in one day. He just bowed out when the road too win seemed too much to overcome. Huck on the other hand continued to fight on even when it was mathmatically impossible to win, and even went on Saturday Night Live to make fun of himself for doing it. His simple objective was just to best Romney (which I dont think he did), even after fighting on months after Romney dropped out.
As I mentioned previously, fundraising is only one part of the work required to win the nomination and White House. Debates, organizations, endorsements, staffing, public appearances… those things matter too and Huck isnt doing much of any of them.
March 28th, 2011 at 1:47 pm
I’ve always felt that our nominee wouldnt be decided this time until just before summer 2012. It will be a long, protracted battle where Romney and another candidate will battle state by state. Someone like Huck or TPaw wins Iowa, then Romney wins NH and NV, then Iowa’s winner wins SC, then Romney wins all of New England, NY, NJ, and ALL 11 western states and Alaska and Hawaii. Someone else (like Huck) will win the southern states. Florida will be a battle but I give the edge to Romney. The midwest will also be a battle where I think both men will each win a few states. Romney will win Michigan and perhaps Illinois. Huck wins Indiana, Ohio, and maybe Wisconsin. PA will be too close to call until the time gets closer.
Because this will go on for months like Obama vs Hillary, I think Romney’s superior fundraising and organization will help him. And this time it wont be winner take all so Romney can pick up delegates even if he loses. For Huck, it will be too little too late.
March 28th, 2011 at 1:56 pm
Huck would love to have Romney one on one in the Heartland of America.
LOVE IT!
!
March 28th, 2011 at 2:12 pm
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/03/2012-presidential-primary-calendar_21.html
Lets pretend that Huck wins Iowa and Romney wins New Hampshire and from there, we are left with those 2 candidates. Here is what I think would happen next. I will put the date of the primary/caucus, then the state, then the presumed winner.
TBA, Iowa- Huck
TBA, New Hamp.- Romney
TBA, Nev.- Romney
TBA, South Carolina-Huck
TBA, Florida- too close to call at this point
Super Tuesday
Calif, Conneticut, Deleware, New York, New Jersey – Romney
Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee – Huck
Georgia and Minnesota too close to call
LA- Huck
Maryland and DC- Romney
Hawaii- Romney
Wisconsin – Too close to call (leans Huck)
Arizona and Michigan- Romney
Super Tuesday part II-
Texas – Huck
Rhode Island, Vermont, Mass. – Romney
Ohio and Virginia – too close to call
Mississippi- Huck
Utah- Romney
Colorado – Romney
Illinois- Too close to call
March 28th, 2011 at 2:17 pm
this would go on and on with Romney winning the other western states (OR, WA, ID, WY, NM), and Huck winning Arkansas, Kan, WV, Kentucky, and on and on. In the end though, Romney will win more delegates and more states. The key will be that Huck will be short on cash to compete in toss up states like WIS, PA, OH, FL, ILL- while Romney will have lots of money, organization, staff, and everything it takes to compete in those toss ups. I believe 2 out of 3 of those “toss up” states will go Romney’s way.
March 28th, 2011 at 2:23 pm
In some ways, 2012 wont be much different than 2008. In 2008, Huck did well in the states he was suppose to win (except SC). He overacheived and won Iowa, and other southern states on Super Tuesday. In those where he competed with Romney and McCain (like Florida and Missouri) he lost nearly everytime.
March 28th, 2011 at 4:05 pm
Husky,
I agree the race will be very close and probably be between Huckabee and Romney. If that is true, there will probably be something different in 2012 than 2008. In 2008 evangelical leaders were pretty split among the top three ’08 candidates on who they endorsed and/or supported. The exit polls showed that the evangelical vote was fairly evenly split, too. I read this earlier today on The Brody File(emphasis mine):
I don’t know who his “sources” are. But, isn’t the evangelical vote a pretty large block of the Republican Party?
March 28th, 2011 at 4:07 pm
Huck: Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Missouri easily.
The momentum alone from Huck winning Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Texas alone will bury Romney, imo.
March 28th, 2011 at 4:13 pm
http://www.971talk.com/huckabee/
HUCKABEE and BREITBART, Family Arena!
March 28th, 2011 at 4:16 pm
NEW IOWA REPUBLICAN POWER RANKINGS
http://iowaindependent.com/54173/2012-republican-power-rankings-for-march-28-social-conservatives-on-the-rise
March 28th, 2011 at 4:18 pm
40.
Granny,
Here is a nice chart today..
http://blog.christianitytoday.com/ctpolitics/2011/03/poll_finds_reli.html
March 28th, 2011 at 6:17 pm
Marsha Blackburn Voted FOR:
Omnibus Appropriations, Special Education, Global AIDS Initiative, Job Training, Unemployment Benefits, Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations, Agriculture Appropriations, FY2004 Foreign Operations Appropriations, U.S.-Singapore Trade, U.S.-Chile Trade, Supplemental Spending for Iraq & Afghanistan, Flood Insurance Reauthorization , Prescription Drug Benefit, Child Nutrition Programs, Surface Transportation, Job Training and Worker Services, Agriculture Appropriations, Foreign Aid, Debt Limit Increase, Fiscal 2005 Omnibus Appropriations, Vocational/Technical Training, Supplemental Appropriations, UN “Reforms.” Patriot Act Reauthorization, CAFTA, Katrina Hurricane-relief Appropriations, Head Start Funding, Line-item Rescission, Oman Trade Agreement, Military Tribunals, Electronic Surveillance, Head Start Funding, COPS Funding, Funding the REAL ID Act (National ID), Foreign Intelligence Surveillance, Thought Crimes “Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act, Peru Free Trade Agreement, Economic Stimulus, Farm Bill (Veto Override), Warrantless Searches, Employee Verification Program, Body Imaging Screening, Patriot Act extension.
Marsha Blackburn Voted AGAINST:
Ban on UN Contributions, eliminate Millennium Challenge Account, WTO Withdrawal, UN Dues Decrease, Defunding the NAIS, Iran Military Operations defunding Iraq Troop Withdrawal, congress authorization of Iran Military Operations, Withdrawing U.S. Soldiers from Afghanistan.
Marsha Blackburn is my Congressman.
See her “blatantly unconstitutional” votes at :
http://mickeywhite.blogspot.com/2009/09/tn-congressman-marsha-blackburn-votes.html
Mickey
March 28th, 2011 at 7:14 pm
Granny if it comes down to Huckabee or Romney I hope it finishes quickly so whoever wins doesnt lose valuable campain funds or good will among the republican base. And for what it is worth. If mormon leaders get behind Mitt Romney ‘EARLY AND OFTEN” They wont be church leaders any longer. The policy is very clear and it is enforced. Mormons are encouraged to learn and vote, but anyone who endorses using the church or even implying a church endorsement for any candidate anytime they are reprimanded and can even be subject to disciplinary action. I personally know a few people who have experienced this because they couldnt keep political views in the political areana. I believe all churchs offer great things, but I wish some could have a similar policy.
Oh and congrats to huck for his good poll numbers
March 23rd, 2012 at 3:10 am
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