Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Survey
When you think about politics, which of the following sets of issues is most important to you?
- Government spending and power 38% {35%}
- Business and the economy 32% {31%}
- Social issues and moral values 17% {17%}
- National security and foreign policy 12% {15%}
Among those who say government spending and power are most important issues
- Mike Huckabee 22% {18%}
- Mitt Romney 18% {17%}
- Newt Gingrich 12% {13%}
- Sarah Palin 9% {11%}
- Mitch Daniels 6%
- Ron Paul 6%
- Jon Huntsman 3%
- Michele Bachmann 3%
- Tim Pawlenty 3%
- Haley Barbour 2%
- Rick Santorum 2%
- Gary Johnson 1%
Among those who say business and the economy are most important issues
- Mitt Romney 15% {20%}
- Mike Huckabee 15% {13%}
- Sarah Palin 13% {17%}
- Newt Gingrich 7% {8%}
- Ron Paul 6%
- Haley Barbour 5%
- Mitch Daniels 5%
- Michele Bachmann 5%
- Gary Johnson 2%
- Tim Pawlenty 2%
- Rick Santorum 1%
- Jon Huntsman 0%
Among those who say social issues and moral values are most important issues
- Mike Huckabee 24% {28%}
- Sarah Palin 14% {19%}
- Mitt Romney 9% {7%}
- Newt Gingrich 9% {6%}
- Ron Paul 9%
- Rick Santorum 4%
- Tim Pawlenty 4%
- Mitch Daniels 3%
- Michele Bachmann 3%
- Jon Huntsman 2%
- Haley Barbour 1%
- Gary Johnson 0%
Among those who say national security and foreign policy are most important issues
- Mitt Romney 17% {17%}
- Sarah Palin 16% {22%}
- Mike Huckabee 14% {20%}
- Newt Gingrich 13% {9%}
- Michele Bachmann 8%
- Jon Huntsman 4%
- Tim Pawlenty 4%
- Ron Paul 4%
- Gary Johnson 3%
- Mitch Daniels 1%
- Rick Santorum 1%
- Haley Barbour 0%
Survey of 1,082 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted March 18-22, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 18-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.
March 28th, 2011 at 6:16 pm
Let’s save them the trouble, repeat after me fellow Huckfan: polls are meaningless, he’s not running anyway, if he does run he’ll finally be exposed for who he truly is…blah, blah, blah
March 28th, 2011 at 6:37 pm
She’s got ‘em right where she wants ‘em.
heh heh
March 28th, 2011 at 6:39 pm
Looks good for Mitt given that the economy and foreign affiars will be hot topics in 2012.
March 28th, 2011 at 6:49 pm
With Government spending out of control being 1st and business and economy coming in 2nd, it looks VERY good for Huckabee. Huckabee gave a pretty good answer to anyone that thinks he isn’t running:
From Huckabee ‘very much considering’ a run posted on “The Hill” today.
March 28th, 2011 at 6:49 pm
mac –
How can you believe that Huckabee, who has had nothing but exposure and message control for more than a year (while his closest opponents have had one or neither), will only continue to increase – at a faster pace than he has – when he gets put under the microscope, and his opponents move into the open.
March 28th, 2011 at 6:55 pm
““I’m very much considering another run at the presidency,” Huckabee said during an exchange that aired Saturday evening. “I find it interesting, some of these pundits say, ‘Huckabee’s not running’ … How do you know that? Because I don’t know that yet.” ”
AKA – “Keep looking at me, nope! I’m over here! I want the spotlight!”
Huckabee might be thinking about it, but he isn’t doing what he needs to do to mount a serious and well-organized campaign.
March 28th, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Results seem reversed. I just don’t think Huckabee exudes uber-competence when it comes to the economy and deficit control. Social issues I understand. Strange results. There must be something else in play.
March 28th, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Among those who say government spending and power are most important issues
* Mike Huckabee 22% {18%}
* Mitt Romney 18% {17%}
* Newt Gingrich 12% {13%}
* Sarah Palin 9% {11%}
====================================
If you believe this I have Brooklyn Bridge to sell you.
March 28th, 2011 at 7:01 pm
I hear a Huckaboom off in the distance
Government spending and power are most important issues:
•Mike Huckabee 22% •Mitt Romney 18% •Sarah Palin 9%
Business and the economy are most important issues:
•Mike Huckabee 15% •Mitt Romney 15% •Sarah Palin 13%
Social issues and moral values are most important issues:
•Mike Huckabee 24% •Sarah Palin 14% •Mitt Romney 9%
March 28th, 2011 at 7:03 pm
analyzing the data…
The most important issue (38%) “government spending and power” – Huckabee leads Romney by 4 points and everyone else by double digits.
The second most import issue (32%) “business and the economy” – Romney and Huckabee are tied for first with Palin close behind.
The third most import issue (17%) “social issues and moral values” – Huckabee leads everyone by double digits.
The fourth most important issue (12%) “national security and foreign policy” Romney leads Palin by 1 point, Huckabee by 3 points, and Gingrich by 4 points.
No wonder so many supporters of other candidates keep trying to spread the lies that Huckabee isn’t running when he hasn’t decided yet.
March 28th, 2011 at 7:03 pm
All of TEX’s theories blown in one new Gallup
March 28th, 2011 at 7:05 pm
Among those who say national security and foreign policy are most important issues
* Mitt Romney 17% {17%}
* Sarah Palin 16% {22%}
============================================
If you believe that Sarah Palin is not far in front on this
issue I have even nicer bridge to sell you,it’s called
Golden Bridge.
March 28th, 2011 at 7:07 pm
Looks like Huckabee’s book had an impact. A good poll for him.
March 28th, 2011 at 7:12 pm
10.Granny T Says:
March 28th, 2011 at 7:03 pm
“No wonder so many supporters of other candidates keep trying to spread the lies that Huckabee isn’t running when he hasn’t decided yet.”
====
Granny,
They simply are aware that their candidate can not compete easily if Huck enters the race, the debates, and the campaign trail. They’re just scared so they spread misinformation and silly theories as if they “know”.
But they KNOW nothing. It’s quite funny.
March 28th, 2011 at 7:25 pm
Palin dropped in every group, which would support the idea that her decline is due to concerns relating to her (e.g., electability) rather than to specific issues.
March 28th, 2011 at 7:40 pm
http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Huckabee-Barbour/2011/03/28/id/390958
March 28th, 2011 at 7:41 pm
First thing first,the nomination.
If Sarah Palin gets the nomination,what are RINOS
going to do?
Vote for Obama,sit home or jump off the cliff?
Could someone give me the answer?
March 28th, 2011 at 7:45 pm
Some interesting info about Reagan:
Did you catch that? He served two terms as Governor in a Democrat state, ran for office and lost, started working in the media again, decided to try again for another Presidential run.
Huckabee might be thinking about it, but he isn’t doing what he needs to do to mount a serious and well-organized campaign.
Exactly when was it that Bill Clinton (announced in Oct) or Ronald Reagan (announced in Nov) started “doing what he needs to do to mount a serious well-organized campaign”?
Huckabee is getting PAID to take his message directly to the people through media outlets. Why shouldn’t Huckabee continue doing that up until he makes his final decision – just like Reagan did?
March 28th, 2011 at 7:47 pm
Giminy Christmas TEX, I go on sabatical for 6 weeks and you are harping about Palin. Palin is falling like a rock. Who is your second choice?
March 28th, 2011 at 7:49 pm
Poor preacher Huckabee,trying so hard to get in good grace
with corrupt GOP establishment.
First by kissing Jeb Bush’s behind,now he’s doing the same thing with lobbyist Barbour who spent most of his adult life in the smoke filled back rooms.
March 28th, 2011 at 7:49 pm
Huck’s race. Huck’s pace.
March 28th, 2011 at 7:50 pm
Yeah,
Who is your second choice, TEX? Be honest.
March 28th, 2011 at 7:54 pm
Second choice?!
There is NO second choice!!!
There is Sarahcuda and there is bunch of skwishy “moderates”
with not a plug nickle difference between them.
March 28th, 2011 at 8:00 pm
23.
As I thought.
March 28th, 2011 at 8:05 pm
17# Tex… we will probably do what you have so proudly said you would not do if someone other than palin got the nomination…vote the party.
18# Granny…I dont wan’t Huckabee, but I have got to hand it to the man. He is getting paid to sell himself, doesnt have to spend a dime, and can still retain bragging rights of “I dont like asking for money and look how much I can do on a shoe string budget”
The challenge will be how long can he thread that camel through the eye of the needle.
March 28th, 2011 at 8:06 pm
Huckabee re-tweets favorable shout-out from Van Jones
Kerry Picket
“Former Arkansas Governor and Fox News contributor Mike Huckabee may have just gotten a wet kiss via a tweet from a controversial former Obama administration czar the former governor late re-tweeted.
This will likely not help Mr. Huckabee in a 2012 presidential campaign. Commenters on a conservative forum are wondering about Mr. Huckabee now”.
=======================================
We know that liberal preacher from Arkansas is loved by
Joy Behar,but now we know that he’s well liked by communist
Van Jones.
Good going Huck!!!
March 28th, 2011 at 8:10 pm
@ TEX – You say there is no choice other than Sarah Palin? So, if she doesn’t run or does and fails to win the nomination, where does that leave you? I honestly do not mean this in a sarcastic way, but who would you consider if that happens? I think it is something for all of us to consider, no matter who we are supporting.
March 28th, 2011 at 8:15 pm
The people in this poll have a lot to learn about Mike Huckabee. The idea that he is the best candidate on fiscal conservatism doesn’t even pass the laugh test.
March 28th, 2011 at 8:29 pm
TEX,
Just for you, my friend..
http://ilikemikehuckabee2012.blogspot.com/2011/03/mike-huckabee-and-van-jones-share-stage.html
March 28th, 2011 at 8:34 pm
My top five choices:
1. Huckabee
2. T-Paw/Bachmann ..whichever Minnesotan survives the Iowa Caucus
3. Huntsman Jr.
4. Professor Newt
5. Daniels/Barbour ..whichever one runs
March 28th, 2011 at 8:56 pm
Craig, You crack me up. You nearly wet yourself at every sliver of good polling news about your candidate. Your candidate who is completely on the fence about even running. Your candidate who is watching as former members of his campaign team leave for other jobs. Your candidate who has never, ever shown an ability to outfundraise my local girl scout troop.
Yet every hour of every day you are on this blog, giddy as a 5 year old at Christmas about any shred of positive poll numbers.
March 28th, 2011 at 9:01 pm
5
Matthew Kilburn,
Mike has taken a great deal of heat from almost every major conservative media figure for four years now and yet he maintains respectable to high favorables across the political spectrum. Why? Because he is a special political talent.
That said, I’m just another huckfan, what’s encouraging to me is when I see someone like Metro, who deplores Mike, acknowledge that Mike is electable. Also, in case you missed it, erstwhile FPP Matthew Miller, who is as smart or smarter than anyone who posts here recently commented that Tpaw and Huck are the only potential candidates on the horizon who could win the nomination and beat President Obama. I’m hoping he’ll write a post soon explaining in greater detail why he feels that way.
March 28th, 2011 at 9:03 pm
Concerns about Palin’s “electability’ stem from the constant drumbeat from the establishment Republicans (Frum, Will, Krauthammer, etc.) that she is “unelectable, or when that fails unconvincingly, that she is NOT running.
This will be the easiest “negative” to overcome as it is pure bullsh*t and as soon as the campaign starts people will see she is easily equal to if not far superior to the field of dwarfs aspiring for he job.
It’s not like she has some stance or issue that is a deal killer. She is not the cartoon character she is portrayed to be, so the truth is on her side.
I’d rather be in her position than have to defend a socialized medicine plan I’d implemented, or defend a record of dangerously granting clemency to criminals who went on to maim and murder. Or a record of raising taxes, or taking corrupt kick backs or a history of being in the pockets of special interests.
In other words, while her poll numbers may be falling, they can turn around on a dime. She is right on every issue. She is a natural leader. She is fearless in taking on Obama. She is far from a ‘politics as usual’ politician. She is just what this country needs.
Focusing on her ‘negatives’ is a fools errand, as they will evaporate like thin wisps of smoke on a windy day.
March 28th, 2011 at 9:06 pm
Like I said on a previous post. I think this will be a long and protracted primary. It remains to be seen whether Huck will win Iowa, yet Romney seems to have a firm hold on New Hampshire and Nevada. I think Romney will likely win New Hampshire and Nevada and do battle for months with Iowa and SC’s winner.
Craig seems to suggest Huck will sail through to a victory in Florida, PA, OH, TX, ILL, and every swing state. I doubt it. Romney will compete in Florida and Georgia, as well as parts of the midwest, and should win in all of New England, NY, NJ, California, and all of the 11 mountain west states. Since it’s not a winner take all state by state, Romney should have the money and organization to outdo the former preacher.
March 28th, 2011 at 9:30 pm
Craig,
Just as I thought,your choice 1st,2nd…..and #7
are 7 moderate “pragmatists”.
You are so “lucky”,I bet there are plenty more out there
you could jump on their band wagon in a minute.
Why not?Not a plug nickle difference between them.
March 28th, 2011 at 10:16 pm
Jim R
Via the Right Scoop:
“PALIN slams Obama doctrine as some post-American theory of intervention”
Palin took it to Obama in analyzing his Libya speech tonight, saying that the speech was ‘profoundly disappointing’ and that the Obama doctrine is still full of ‘chaos and questions’, and is ‘dodgy’ and ‘dubious’.
She makes it very clear that U.S. interests should be to take Qaddafi out or to capture him and goes on to say this:
“He did not make the case for this intervention. U.S. interests have got to be met if we are going to intervene.
And U.S. interests can’t just mean validating some kind of post-American theory of intervention wherein we wait for the
Arab League and the United Nations to tell us ‘thumbs up America, you can go now, you can act’, and then we get in the back of the bus and we wait for NATO, we wait for the French to lead us. That’s not inspirational.”
Now that’s the strength of Sarah Palin that we all fell in love with in 2008! And there’s much more.
http://www.therightscoop.com/p…
March 28th, 2011 at 10:26 pm
Sorry,
Wrong video.
I can’t post Palin’s video with Greta Van Susteren
and her response to Obama’s Libya speech.
March 28th, 2011 at 10:35 pm
Husky,
Relax, it’s only politics. Didn’t mean to upset you so.
HUCKABEE 2012
March 28th, 2011 at 10:40 pm
37. Here, TEX..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSH-iovkgMo
March 28th, 2011 at 10:43 pm
Teledude (33)” “This will be the easiest “negative” to overcome”
Quite the contrary. There’s nothing tougher to reverse than a firmly established negative reputation.
Didn’t your mother ever teach you that?
As usual, mom was right, even about politics.
March 28th, 2011 at 10:49 pm
This is good news for those of us who want Huckabee to run, since anything that feeds his gargantuan ego makes it more likely he will deign to enter the fray.
And if he DOES run, he will make it very difficult for a serious candidate like Pawlenty, Huntsman, Daniels, or Barbour to break out of low single digits. Mitt’s lock on New Hampshire and Nevada mean that the breakout of one of these guys will have to come in Iowa….and if that’s the case, Huckabee will keep them from getting the traction they need to stay in the race.
There are only 2 tickets out of New Hampshire, and if Huck has one of them, Mitt wins.
Huck can’t go the distance
March 28th, 2011 at 10:50 pm
And like I said earlier today, the momentum alone from Huck winning Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Texas should bury Romney, once and for all pretty early on.
Mitt may never even make it to liberal Cali or some of the other blue states that he seems to do so well in.
March 28th, 2011 at 10:59 pm
Thanks Craig,
You and Bozoman are the wizards of instantly bringing
any video or information.
March 28th, 2011 at 11:05 pm
Craig,
Ha,ha,ha……
You’re still going after good old Willard.
Why?Having fun?I know he’s easy target,but leave the guy
alone,OK.
March 28th, 2011 at 11:26 pm
Huck tanking on InTrade, now trailing Palin, Barbour, tied with Bachmann.
Rumors swirling that Barbour is courting a Huck endorsement.
March 28th, 2011 at 11:36 pm
Max,
The fact is that Huck wants Barbour to endorse him, and Barbour wants Huck’s endorsement, rationally assuming he won’t run. But if Huck doesn’t run, he will save his endorsement for whoever poses the biggest threat to Romney, and deliver it whenever it seems it will make the most difference.
Barbour, I predict, will never get out of single digits, and therefore won’t get Huck’s endorsement.
March 28th, 2011 at 11:36 pm
“Husky for Romney in 2012 Says:
Your candidate who is completely on the fence about even running.”
I’m sorry when did Romney announce, maybe I missed it?
March 29th, 2011 at 12:28 am
InTrade is a joke this early:
PRESIDENT.REP.2012
Republican Party candidate to win 2012 Presidential Election M Trade 35.5 35.7 35.5 15216 -0.4
March 29th, 2011 at 12:31 am
PPP Tweets..
Florida poll will be out starting tomorrow
11 minutes ago via web
Also will have the Mississippi President numbers out tomorrow…mixed signals from Haley Barbour’s home state voters
11 minutes ago via web
March 29th, 2011 at 1:23 am
I think the stars will begin to align in the next 30 days.
March 29th, 2011 at 1:24 am
Never send in a guy named HUCK to replace a guy named Barry.
Just found it in my fortune cookie.
March 29th, 2011 at 1:38 am
People who say government spending and power is priority… Gary Johnson is in last place. People who say economy business… Jon Huntsman is in last place. The last place you should look for a better understanding of issues? People.
March 29th, 2011 at 1:45 am
Just found a link where Huckabee will be cruising Alaskan waters in June. Does that make the start of a campaign?
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot
Also…
https://www.paradisetoursandtravel.com/cruise.php?CruiseID=2
March 29th, 2011 at 4:28 am
Huckabee is running ??? http://www.clarionledger.com/article/20110329/NEWS/103290336/Huckabee-still-weighing-run-president?ody
March 29th, 2011 at 7:05 am
I find Gingrich’s numbers the most fascinating here. He stayed around the same on the category he’s known for – fiscal issues, and rose up on national security / social issues. That’s interesting.
March 29th, 2011 at 8:10 am
So I guess this poll means that we shouldn’t talk about foreign policy or national security issues……
March 29th, 2011 at 8:39 am
Interesting interview with Mr. Huckabee, published in The Browser on March 25, 2011:
http://thebrowser.com/interviews/mike-huckabee-on-simple-governance
March 29th, 2011 at 8:55 am
PPP has been discredited due to their reliance on 2008 metrics, and further discredited themselves with their Charlie Sheen polls. They are a joke, and anyone who relies on PPP is being taken for a ride.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:08 am
Max,
I don’t have a problem with PPP using 2008 metrics. As long as they think Obama has a better chance to win we can take them by surprise.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:19 am
Craig, I think its a stretch to assume that Huck has Florida in the bag. Even if he decides to run and even if he beats others to win Iowa, he wont likely even compete in Nevada and New Hampshire. From there if he wins South Carolina, it makes Florida a 2 person race. In 2008, Florida was basically a 4 person race with Mitt, Rudy, McCain, and Huck and I think Huck was 4th of 4. Maybe he beat Rudy but I thought he was in the mid teens. This after he won Iowa and came very close in South Carolina. My point is this. What do you think has changed this time that will make it so he will run away with it in Florida? You even acknowledge he probably wont have the money Romney has, and he and Romney should each have 2 wins a piece. You need money for ads in Florida. That and a superior organization. Advantage Romney in my opinion.
By the way, I think there are more Romney states are earlier in the process (like CA, NY, NJ, VT, CT, MA, AZ, Mich, UT) and fewer Huck states are in the beginning weeks and months. Another advantage for Romney.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:23 am
Kavon,
Off topic but interesting…
U.S. Tops in Energy Resources opening paragraphs:
Why are we buying oil from foreign countries is we have the largest amount of natural resources here? American energy = American jobs!!!
March 29th, 2011 at 9:40 am
The staff-less, money-less Mike Huckabee met in Mississippi with Haley Barbour, who is currently outpacing Huck by leaps and bounds in terms of organization. The rumors are that Barbour is moving to secure Huck’s support, given that it is becoming clear to everyone that Huck is a non-candidate.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:44 am
Max,
I heard rumors that Mike was seeking Barbour’s support.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:08 am
“Max,
I heard rumors that Mike was seeking Barbour’s support.”
That is true. Huck was quoted on a show in the last two days saying he would like to have Haley Barbour as a campaign manager.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:08 am
Huck sites have suggested Huck was seeking support, while actual journalists are reporting that it was only Barbour seeking to line up Huck’s endorsement. Since Barbour is actively building a network and an organization, while Huck is prepping for his Christian rock cruise, the evidence clearly supports the journalists’ report of Barbour courting Huck.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:10 am
Naturally, Huck is desperate for any organization and would love for Haley to build him one. But Barbour has signaled that he is running and in it to win, while Huck is still shopping for flip flops for his summer cruise.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:13 am
Here is the article in question I was talking about.
http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Huckabee-Barbour/2011/03/28/id/390958
I expect a rapid apology from you Max.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:19 am
Not that I am going to get one…
March 29th, 2011 at 10:24 am
You can expect one, but it ain’t gonna happen.
“if Barbour chooses not to run”
From Friday:
“We’re doing everything that we can to stop abortion in our state,” Barbour said. “AND IF I GET ELECTED PRESIDENT, I will come into office with that attitude. And that’s about 180 degrees different from the current president.”
Clearly, Barbour is running, something that cannot be said about the money-less Mike Huckabee.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:29 am
Or dusting off his chops. Either way, we won’t know until later.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:36 am
Huckabee and Barbour have a mutual respect for each other. Also from Friday:
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/52108.html#ixzz1I0GZXNpJ
March 29th, 2011 at 10:45 am
Looks like Newt the Gigalo spoke at John Hagee’s church. Don’t remember Hagee? He’s the guy whose endorsement McCain unaccepted when it was revealed that he has said, among other things, that Katrina was divine retribution, the Catholic Church is the whore of Babylon, and that Hitler was doing God’s will.
Sick bastard.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theticket/20110328/pl_yblog_theticket/newt-gingrich-woos-evangelicals-with-the-help-of-a-controversial-pastor;_ylt=Av2qghyPSPom7EzkpU7UyF8V6w8F;_ylu=X3oDMTVhbzBhNzAwBGFzc2V0A3libG9nX3RoZXRpY2tldC8yMDExMDMyOC9uZXd0LWdpbmdyaWNoLXdvb3MtZXZhbmdlbGljYWxzLXdpdGgtdGhlLWhlbHAtb2YtYS1jb250cm92ZXJzaWFsLXBhc3RvcgRjY29kZQNtcF9lY184XzEwBGNwb3MDMTAEcG9zAzEwBHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDbmV3dGdpbmdyaWNo
March 29th, 2011 at 10:57 am
Someone forgot to tell Newt..
Pastor Hagee is our side’s Reverend Wright.
Way to controversial and dead wrong about the Catholic Church.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:08 am
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/152331-huck-keeps-the-12-field-guessing
March 29th, 2011 at 11:08 am
Huckabee will be a force to be reckoned with if he gets in. He still has a few months to get things in order. However, this isn’t 1979/80, or 92. The cycle begins earlier, and if Huckabee thinks he can announce in late summer, it will be exceedingly difficult for him. Not impossible, but difficult.
The problem with getting in late summer will be that Romney and Pawlenty will have been running well oiled campaigns for several months. Admittedly, Romney probably won’t take a lot from Huckabee, but Pawlenty stands to gain a lot of ground in Huckabee’s absence. There has been talk that Bob Van Der Sloot has been telling Huckabee to skip the straw poll. (Seriously, who takes advice from a guy that has run for governor three times and lost every single time?) If Huckabee follows that advice, it will be to his peril. Iowans still love Huckabee, but I think they will turn to Pawlenty when they see that he is there and Huckabee isn’t.
It’s funny because if Huckabee gets in, (on time), it will very likely be a two man race between him and Romney, yet Huckabee could lose a lot to Pawlenty and Barbour.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:23 am
I believe T-Paw and Haley take about equally between Huck and Mitt support.
But nevertheless, not substantial enough to stop Huck from pretty easily winning our first contest in Iowa, and in the decider PRIMARY (since ’80), SOUTH CAROLINA.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:27 am
South Carolina DECIDES based on the strongest candidate in Iowa and New Hampshire. Right now, that’s Romney.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:33 am
“It’s funny because if Huckabee gets in, (on time), it will very likely be a two man race between him and Romney, yet Huckabee could lose a lot to Pawlenty and Barbour.”
Pawlenty leads his home state in the PPP poll for Minnesota that was done in December. Does Barbour lead in his home state of Mississippi in the polling that was done over the weekend?
Yes, I know that polling this far out doesn’t really mean a whole lot, but I do find them very interesting and a fairly good way to test the waters.
I’m curious. Does anyone know who’s paying for the PPP polling?
March 29th, 2011 at 11:57 am
Granny T and Craig, reading your comments and re-post of my comment made me realize I need to clarify my thoughts. Yes, Pawlenty and Barbour will take from Romney as well. However, if Romney is in full campaign mode, and Huckabee isn’t, they will take dis-proportionately from Huckabee. If Huckabee waits to get in, I am interested to see how much support he retains because of his show. It’s clear that it’s a campaign tool for him, even if he’s not campaigning. I have to admit, it’s brilliant, he is getting paid to spread his views. Nevertheless, the show won’t compensate for not having boots on the ground and an active organization. Iowans want to meet the candidates face to face, not just on TV. If Huckabee gets in too late and squanders Iowa, it will be extremely hard for him to recover, just like if Romney loses New Hampshire.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:00 pm
CF,
We shall let the great folks of SC decide between Mike and Mitt.
I trust that their judgement in ’12 will be fair, wise, and decisive as always
March 29th, 2011 at 12:06 pm
REMEMBER, Huck will be on over 600 radio staions three times a day, and on FOX NEWS most every day up until the day he announces – CONTINUOUSLY driving home his messages, views, and political ideas FOR all the voters to see.
Do they have TV and radio sets in Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida?
ALL the polls say they do.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
SOUTH Carolina, too? Whoo hoo!
March 29th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
“Iowans want to meet the candidates face to face”
Rob,
Mike practically lived there for about two years already, and has met them all at the Pizza Ranches. Even meeting them multiple times for many of the most likely to caucus.
Huck will also have five/six more months on the ground there if he announces in the late summer, say August or Labor Day.
Hey, no one retail politics like Huckabee although Clinton (who announced in November) and Reagan (who announced in December) were pretty good at it, too. And they won, as well!
March 29th, 2011 at 12:18 pm
Craig, yes, he will be on the TV and radio, but he won’t be out there shaking their hands and kissing their babies. He also won’t have campaign aides and advisers. Those people need jobs and will be hired up if he waits too long. Sure, he’ll find someone to work for him, but not the best and brightest. Most importantly, he won’t have the fundraisers and bundlers. While I appreciate his ability to run a campaign on a shoe-string budget, the money, or lack thereof, will matter.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:26 pm
“We shall let the great folks of SC decide between Mike and Mitt.
I trust that their judgement in ’12 will be fair, wise, and decisive as always”
But it’s not always fair, or wise. It has always depended upon the strongest candidate to come out of Iowa and New Hampshire, unless you believe that John McCain was the fairest or wisest choice in 2008?
South Carolina has consistently based their decision on the first two states whether it makes any reasonable sense whatsoever. Mark my words, Romney is going to be the nominee.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:33 pm
Rob,
The winning team of Bob Vander Plaats, Ed Rollins, Chip Saltsman, and Sarah Huckabee will need exactly 24 hours notice and have all stated they are willing, able, and eager to give it another go.
And don’t underestimate the entire Huck’s Army.
The key is the Iowa to South Carolina parlay, and then the money will flow in as it always has for the last 32 years to the winner of SC.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:36 pm
CF,
Mark my words, Mitt Romney, the pro-TARPER and proud architect of RomneyCare/ObamaCare MANDATES, SUBSIDIES, and EXCHANGES will never be our nominee. Period.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Craig -
Congrats, you know how to copy/paste my words. Herp, derp.
Like I said, it doesn’t matter if -you think- it is “unfair” or illogical that Romney would win. You can whine and cry all day about your belief that people won’t vote for someone who passed MassCare, but you’re wrong. You’re not basing your judgement on facts and historical precedent.
And the facts and the history shows that the strongest candidate in Iowa and New Hampshire wins South Carolina and the primary. This is a well documented phenomenon and has been the case since the 1970s.
“A review of Gallup historical data on national Republicans’ and Democrats’ presidential nomination preferences shows that the results of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary have the potential to shift national preferences, sometimes dramatically.”
http://www.gallup.com/poll/103537/iowa-new-hampshire-results-often-shift-national-preferences.aspx
March 29th, 2011 at 12:51 pm
Any national lead that Huckabee has right now will be completely erased after Romney finishes strong in Iowa and wins in a landslide in New Hampshire. Romney wins in Nevada and Michingan will be just frosting on the cake.
Romney will have won NH, NV, and MI – 3 out of the first 4 states, and a strong finish in Iowa. After that, the race will be essentially over.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:52 pm
Not whining, just facting.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
CF,
You keep counting on Romney winning SC. Knock yourself out. But don’t be too disappointed when he gets blown out there and loses Florida, too.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
Nevada won’t matter, never has, and because Huck won’t contest it.
If Huck wins in..
Iowa
South Carolina
Florida
Game over.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:55 pm
Craig -
Speak of facts, FactCheck.org recently did a comprehensive article rebutting most of Huckabee’s falsehoods. I recommend you educate yourself and check it out.
http://factcheck.org/2011/03/romneycare-facts-and-falsehoods/
March 29th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
Drop the balloons in TAMPA!
!
March 29th, 2011 at 12:59 pm
Michigan is not cutting in line this time either. Sorry, CF.
March 29th, 2011 at 1:02 pm
“If Huck wins in..
Iowa
South Carolina
Florida
Game over.”
If you’re right, then this will be the first time in decades of GOP Primaries that New Hampshire and Iowa weren’t the pivotal states.
You are the very definition of ignorance, Craig. You are simply sticking your fingers in your ears and saying, “lalalalalalalala…I don’t hear you…lalalalalalala”. You’ve invented your own world of facts that belie reality.
March 29th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/gop_candidates_debate_round_2.html
March 29th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
CF’s typical post,
Blah, blah blah, Romney is perfect, blah, blah, blah, Huck is mean…
March 29th, 2011 at 1:10 pm
Mor of CF’s take..
Blah blah blah, poll results and South Carolina’s pinpoint accuracy since 1980 are coming to an end once folks learn more about the beauty of ROMNEYCARE MANDATES…
March 29th, 2011 at 1:10 pm
*More
March 29th, 2011 at 1:13 pm
I never said he was perfect. He’s got plenty of faults – nobody’s perfect. I’m just looking at reality and history here.
John McCain was a terrible candidate, but it really didn’t matter after he finished 3rd in Iowa and 1st in New Hampshire. National polling changed overnight in McCain’s favor because of this. Where he was once behind the other candidates, he was suddenly catapulted into the lead.
Mitt Romney is following the exact same pattern by not competing strongly in Iowa and going all out in New Hampshire. You’ll see the same results. Love him or hate him, Romney will be the one.
March 29th, 2011 at 1:17 pm
“Romney will be the one.” – CF
I’m tired of this talk about The One.
We already have one of those cult like figures in the White House.
And it’s not working out too well.
March 29th, 2011 at 1:33 pm
PPP new tweets..
Thought MS might be the state where Palin finally had positive fav numbers but no- 42/50. 28 for 28:
8 minutes ago via web
Huck does best in MS, leading Obama by 14. Barbour leads by 10, Newt and Mitt by 6, Palin by 4: http://tinyurl.com/4lrq2xc
9 minutes ago via web
March 29th, 2011 at 1:46 pm
It’s way too early to even predict Iowa, much less anything later, but the way things are shaping up, there are a number of 3rd-tier candidates who are using the Huckabee formula of 2007-08 to win the SoCon vote in Iowa. Combine that with Huck getting in late if he gets in at all, and a Romney victory in Iowa is a significant possibility.
If that happens, combined with probable Romney wins in New Hampshire and Nevada, and there could well be only one ticket out of Nevada going into South Carolina. But even if it’s competitive, after 3 wins, it’s hard to imagine Nikki and Jim NOT endorsing Mitt in the SC primary.
It could be a one-month Primary season, concluding with a Romney nomination.
March 29th, 2011 at 1:48 pm
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MS_0329915.pdf
March 29th, 2011 at 1:52 pm
Aron has his PPP Mississippi polling results up.
March 29th, 2011 at 1:54 pm
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/03/mixed-news-for-barbour.html
March 29th, 2011 at 2:38 pm
PPP underscores yet again how irrelevant a poll it is. Obama will lose Mississippi to every republican by double digits.
March 29th, 2011 at 3:51 pm
Craig, sorry, there is absolutely nothing winning about Van Der Plaats. He obviously doesn’t have a clue about what Iowans want. Three tries for Governor, three losses. If Huckabee is smart, he won’t take any advice from that guy.
March 29th, 2011 at 5:37 pm
Rob, my friend..
That’s so wrong on every level. BVP has the top Conservative Grassroots organization in all of Iowa. Bar none. I was there in ’07-’08.
It got us a 35% landslide win in IA last time out.
Why? Because conservatives love to come out even in the freezing snow flurries and caucus. They love it!